By Jared Stanger
The deadline for MLB teams to sign their 2026 draftpicks passed yesterday, and it has become a bit of an annual tradition for me to create an instant re-draft of Mariners’ picks that takes into account the factual draft positions and signing bonuses of all players that signed their pro contracts. The rules are pretty simple: 1) I can draft any player at the Mariner pick that was, in fact, still on the board when said pick occurred in the realtime draft, 2) my overall draftboard must fall in line with draft bonus rules.
Reminder of the draft bonus rules for this Mariners’ class: the slot bonus allotment for Seattle rounds 1-10 was $8,218,200. Picks in rounds 11-20 have no slotting rule, but any bonus amount over $150,000 per pick counts towards the $8,218,200 total.
The third thing I kind of try to factor is that I will mostly mirror the Mariners’ draft in terms of positions. If Seattle found their needs ventured more towards bats than pitchers; I would do more bats than pitchers. If Seattle sought to draft a bunch of third basemen; I would draft a bunch of third basemen. I don’t force myself to draft position for position in identical rounds as what Seattle did, but a lot of the time it’s not a crazy stretch to match them up.
I did, however, feel more preference to draft high school players than the Mariners did. The Mariners drafted one high school bat, who they knew was unsignable, and so their completed draft class ends with zero prep players.
#1.24 – 3B, Magnolia Heights HS, Cole Prosek (Bonus $3,247,500)
The M’s first pick went to a college lefthanded-hitting third basemen, and my first pick goes to a prep lefthanded-hitting third basemen. Prosek was actually picked #41 overall by the White Sox, and his signed bonus of $3.25mill would have been a savings of $252k over Ace Reese. Prosek, to this point in his development, seems to have better plate discipline than Reese, while maintaining some of the best in-game power documented in the entire national high school baseball season. To me, this is a no-brainer swap for more upside with less bonus required.
Prosek also has experience as a catcher, and Seattle appeared to have a preference for a catcher that hits lefthanded, as they drafted one and signed a second LH catcher in undrafted free agency.
#2.65 – OF, North Carolina, Owen Hull (Bonus $1,200,000)
The Mariners drafted lefty-hitting outfielder Jake Brown with pick #65 and signed him for $1,382,600. The Red Sox drafted lefty-hitting outfielder Hull two picks later and signed him for $182,600 less than Brown cost. Hull, again, showed a better hit tool with more discipline than Brown. Hull hit .393 with 48 BB and 49 SO in 324 PA, while Brown hit .309 with 23 BB, 32 SO in 194 PA. Brown easily had the bigger power with 16 HR to Hull’s 9. Brown tested at the Combine as having very good running speed, but Hull was easily the better basestealer amongst the two.
#3.101 – SS, Mamaroneck HS, Will Plunkett (Bonus $675,000)
I think the Mariners tragically misread this draftclass, and potentially ignored warning signs about the future of the draft in general, when it came to the prep players. I think there were far better values to be found in the high school ranks than Scott Hunter suggested in his post-draft comments. I think, maybe, Seattle is thinking they have a more abbreviated window to win, and therefore were looking for shortcuts to major league reinforcements by targeting college players. I lowkey wonder if the Seattle scouting department even did their due diligence on this high school class, or if they allocated an extreme majority of their scouting personnel and time resources to focus on college players.
Anyways…Plunkett was on my shortlist before the draft, and seeing him sign with the Orioles for this low of a bonus was too good to pass up. The Orioles drafted him at pick #230 in the 8th round, but gave him closer to 3rd round money, which is where I’m taking him.
#4.129 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue (Bonus $622,500)
The Mariners drafted college RHP Nathan Taylor in the 3rd round and signed him for $778,200. I’m getting college RHP Vigue in the 4th round for about $156k savings. The Mariners seemed to have a preference for SEC players throughout this draft, so it’s odd to me they went for the more expensive Taylor out of a Big12 school instead of Vigue from Georgia on a pretty big savings.
Vigue looked so much like a Mariner kind of arm to me pre-draft, and for him to fall to the 7th round was kind of shocking. The one thing I see from Taylor that might have pulled Seattle more towards him than Vigue was the control. Taylor averaged 2.7 BB/9 whereas Vigue averaged 5.1. But that isn’t unusual. Bryce Miller averaged 5.9 BB/9 coming out of college. That has never been a deal-breaker for Seattle’s pitching lab.
#5.162 – 3B, Tennessee, Henry Ford (Bonus $335,900)
Whenever I saw that the Mariners’ actual draftpick felt like the best fit for round and bonus; I was open to matching their pick. I liked Ford’s righthanded power, and he signed for exactly slot money. The way this draft played out; I was able to draft Ford a round earlier than Seattle actually took him while still achieving the rest of my desired picks.
#6.191 – 2B, Iowa, Gable Mitchell (Bonus $5,000)
I’m really not a big fan of drafting guys and underslotting them this severely. Minor league pay is barely a living wage, so a lot of these guys will be surviving off of their signing bonus for their minor league careers. In the case of Mitchell; I had flagged him as a guy I was targeting to draft anyways, and then his signing bonus he received from the Blue Jays made it possible for me to target other, more expensive players elsewhere. The Jays drafted him at pick #193, so we snipe him two picks early.
#7.220 – OF, Marist HS, Martin Shelar (Bonus $1,500,000)
Pre-draft I really wanted to get Shelar, and I was willing to spend my second round pick and pay him overslot money in order to secure him. It turns out it wouldn’t have taken much more than the second round money of $1,382,600, and we could have drafted him as late as the M’s pick in the 8th round. The Red Sox eventually took him with pick #274.
#8.250 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman (Bonus $204,700)
The Mariners drafted their lone catcher, Mason Eckelman, in this exact spot, but they paid him $220,900. Tayman saves us $16k, but arguably brings a better defensive catcher profile.
#9.280 – RHP, Oregon State, Wyatt Queen (Bonus $275,000)
I had Queen in some of my earlier mock drafts, so after Seattle actually drafted this local product; I figured I should keep him. The M’s drafted him at pick #340 and paid him $275k. That means $125k of that bonus counts towards Seattle’s bonus pool. I’m sort of cutting out the middle man and putting him in the 9th round.
#10.310 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier (Bonus $70,000)
In addition to the Mariners focusing exclusively on college players, they also seemed to only target college players that were 21 years old (give or take a few months). They really didn’t draft any “senior-sign” players. So they didn’t want 18 year olds, but they also didn’t want 23 year olds. Carrier is the latter, so it seems pretty likely they overlooked him for what will inevitably be an arbitrary reason. Carrier rakes, and he’s a steal at $70k.
#11.340 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola (Bonus $150,000)
It’s not totally clear at first blush which pitchers the Mariners actually drafted will begin their pro careers as starters and which will immediately be placed in relief roles. My revisionist draft has some similar lack of clarity. I think Queen and Coppola (and maybe others later) might be given the chance to start initially.
Coppola was actually drafted at pick #369, which is the pick immediately preceding their pick at #370, so it serves to wonder if they might have taken him there if he lasted one more pick.
#12.370 – RHP, UNCW, Connor Marshburn (Bonus $200,000)
Marshburn was another late round pick that Seattle dipped into their bonus pool to sign. He has been exclusively a starter in the last two seasons at UNCW. I liked the pick so I kept it the same for this exercise.
#13.400 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn (Bonus $100,000)
Horn is another guy that might have been wholesale excluded from the Mariners’ board as a 23 y/o. He’s an interesting profile in that he’s a college bullpen long reliever. He pitched 67.1 innings this year in 31 appearances, which averages out to over two innings per game. He also struck out over 12 per nine innings while never operating with premium velocity. The guy just knows how to spin it. If you can add some velocity in a pro system; this would be a great value.
#14.430 – 3B, Oregon, Drew Smith (Bonus $25,000)
This is probably the most forced pick I’ve made in this draft. The Mariners drafted four third basemen (one of which did not sign), and I only managed two through my first 13 picks. Smith hit .342/.425/1.047 with 16 homers this year for the Ducks. He really wasn’t on my radar much before the draft, but seemed a decent value play this late in the draft.
#15.460 – OF, Minnesota, Charlie Sutherland (Bonus $150,000)
Sutherland was the rare case of a player that was nowhere near my radar before the draft, but the selection by Seattle brough him to my attention and I quite liked the pick. The Mariners did this weird thing where they sacrificed plate discipline for power early in the draft, but then in later rounds they flipped it and went after hitterish traits while foregoing power. Sutherland only hit 11 homeruns, but he got on-base at a .434 clip and walked 29 times to 31 strikeouts. Plus, when I studied him, he comes across with strong leadership. My kind of guy.
#16.490 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Alex Kranzler (Bonus $150,000)
These next two picks came to my attention after the college regular season, and during the MLB Draft League, where pitch metrics were more readily accessible to the public. Kranzler made four starts to go along with fifteen relief appearances this year for Vanderbilt. He followed that up with five starts in the MLBDL where he posted a 2.35 ERA, 23 SO, 10 BB, 10 H across 23 innings. This is a guy I would love to see the Seattle pitching lab get their hands on.
#17.520 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade (Bonus $50,000)
Stade was the other MLBDL pitcher I liked. He made ten starts for Bowling Green, and then another four in the the Draft League where he was striking out 17.2 batters per nine innings. There is just so much potential upside here from a late-round starting lefthanded pitcher. I far prefer this upside to that of the lone LHP Seattle drafted, Chris Torres.
#18.550 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong (Bonus $100,000)
Armstrong had some of the best righthanded power still left on the board this late. He hit .338/.453/1.211 with 24 homeruns this year for Baylor. He gives you roughly the same strikeout rate as Ace Reese, but seventeen rounds later.
The Mariners didn’t draft a first baseman anywhere in this class, but with two un-signed draftpicks, I took the liberty of replacing one of them with a 1B.
#19.580 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey (Bonus NA)
Seattle only drafted one shortstop this class, which (again) is a little unusual, but I replace one of their unsigned picks with Carey who plays a very strong defensive SS, while also hitting 15 homers. He’s just a little old. Carey was an undrafted signee by the Mets, so I don’t have a reported signing bonus, but most UDFA sign for very little money.
#20.610 – RHP, East Texas Baptist, Isaac Thornton (Bonus NA)
A pick this late in the draft is basically forced to be transposed from the list of signed, undrafted players. In this case, I place one of Seattle’s own UDFA signings into the ranks of their drafted players. Thornton has a big frame at 6’5″ that could, potentially, add some velocity as he strengthens his 185lb body. He seems to control the zone well at 110 strikeouts to 29 walks in 102 innings this year.
After all of these picks and their bonuses, I calculate Seattle would have had $32,600 of bonus still remaining. I’m going to give all of that money to Gable Mitchell after the fact to bring his bonus up to $37,600.
Seattle Seamocks 