Mariner three week away mock

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By Jared Stanger

There was a report that surfaced this week breaking down MLB’s plans to restructure the entirety of amateur player acquisition as part of the impending CBA expiration and subsequent renegotiating. A few of the major points of the proposal for the domestic draft:

-banning the drafting of prep players altogether, and effectively making draft eligibility start at a player’s age of 20.

-shortening the draft from 20 rounds to 12 rounds.

-cutting the available signing bonus pool by more than $150 million per year.

-hard-slotting the bonus amounts rather than the current system of suggested slot bonus.

I haven’t heard/seen anyone thinking these ideas are good outside of Rob Manfred who is acting on behalf of MLB owners. The idea of installing a draft in place of the international signing period is particularly inconvenient for the Mariners who are projected to sign three of the top international prospects, including Mairon De La Rosa, who Seattle recently sniped from the Yankees when their verbal agreement fell apart. Under the MLB proposal, the 2027 signing period (typically in January of each year) would disappear completely, to be replaced by a draft that would take place in September 2027. They would also raise the international age eligibility from 16 to 18, thereby making all of Seattle’s 2027 agreements ineligible until, at least, 2028.

None of the reported draft changes would affect the 2026 domestic draft. At least, that’s what I was initially thinking. But as I’ve spent some time dwelling on these proposals; it occurs to me that their leaking into the media and then into the common knowledge could actually affect this year. Players coming from the 2026 high school draft class may now be incentivized to sign with their drafting MLB team for higher bonus amounts in 2026, than to risk the possibility of a slashed bonus pool, if not a hard-slotted possibility, should a new CBA pass as proposed.

Savvy MLB teams may seek to take advantage of these conditions and look to stock up on prep players this year, before their option to do so goes away entirely or even changes towards more restrictive. The only thing within the MLB’s reported draft restructure that benefits the players themselves would be the change in eligibility for college players from “after three years of college” to “after two years of college”. That proposal, in concert with the recent change in NIL money for college athletes, may be enough to sway 2026 prep players into honoring their college commitments this cycle. But, as far as I can tell, college baseball players aren’t cashing in on NIL money like, say, college football players. At the high end of baseball NIL money, my research suggests elite baseball players are making more like a max of $500,000 a year. Multiply that times the required two-years in college; and an elite college player is looking at, maybe, $1,000,000 in college earnings. So any 2026 draft bonus north of a million dollars could be enough to get most prep players signed to their drafting team this summer. In theory.

With this in mind…will it be possible for Seattle to sign an elite prep player at pick #24 for a techinically underslot figure?? The suggested slot bonus for pick #24 is $3,818,700. Could the Mariners find themselves with more prep options willing to sign at that pick for, say, $3.2million? An underslot deal in the first round is particularly appealing for Seattle this year as they currently don’t have a large bonus pool available. The Mariners’ total bonus pool is $8,218,200, which is the seventh-smallest pool in MLB this year. Saving money in the first round will make it easier to double, triple, quadruple down on prep players for the entire draft.

As I did in my last mock draft; I am cross-referencing my theoretical draft plan with a simulated mock draft via Over-slot.com. Their program includes a bonus element, but that element is non-negotiable. So the dollar amounts listed could vary widely from eventual actual bonus amounts.

#1.24 – LHP, Southside Christian HS, Carson Bolemon

Maybe a week ago Keith Law published a mock draft with the Mariners taking Bolemon here. At the time, I found the pick somewhat unresearched, as Seattle has never drafted a prep pitcher higher than pick #55 in the Jerry Dipoto era. But, if my new overriding theory of this draft is true, in light of this week’s news; Seattle may very well be considering prep players of either discipline earlier and more often than they ever have before. And…said pick(s) may cost less than ever before, so it could be two birds with one stone.

Bolemon ticks a lot of boxes for Seattle at #24, but one of those is how rarely they will reach and draft underslot players with their first round picks. Kade Anderson wasn’t a reach last year, but they did end up getting him for an underslot figure. Bolemon is ranked the #23 player in the class by mlb.com. Getting him at pick #24 is appropriate value, and then the signing bonus is TBD. My theory is that Bolemon will sign for underslot, but my simulator mock budgets for him to get exactly slot. So we can handle either pathway.

As a player, Bolemon reminds me of a very specific pitcher. I’m not going to reveal who, but suffice to say he would make a great pick. The calling card for him here, for me, is the overall pitchability. With the asterisk being the future upside including the potential to add some velo.

#2.65 – 3B, Mill Valley HS, Beau Peterson

Part of the hack of the draft simulator is that they place a bonus floor on certain rounds, so it actually benefits your overall mock to draft a high bonus player in the second round. You can’t aggressively underslot this early. So I’m adjusting my strategy to go prep-prep with the first two picks.

Peterson has a really strong hit-tool in his high school season where he hit .535/.650/1.536 with 3 HR, and 26 SB. The interesting thing is that he was also the winner of the high school homerun derby last year. So there is power within, but he’s not selling out average to get to his power. That’s tremendous discipline for a teenager.

#3.101 – OF, North Carolina, Owen Hull

I’ve started to think Seattle might be targeting outfield help with one of their early picks. That thought has coincided with my tendency to recency bias players that excel in the various stages of the College World Series. Owen Hull has been one of the biggest stars in the CWS and has now led the Tar Heels to this year’s Finals. On the season, Hull has hit .398/.506/1.121 with 8 HR, 26 doubles, 85 RBI, 18 SB, 47 BB, and 44 SO. In 2024 and 2025, before his transfer to UNC, Hull stole 42 and 29 bases for George Mason. So there’s a bit more speed there than, perhaps, the 2026 season might suggest.

Hull could be a true centerfielder with leadoff hitter traits. The Mariners current outfield situation has Randy Arozerana a free agent at the end of this season, Victor Robles has a club option for 2027, Rob Refsnyder may not make it on the team through the end of this season, Luke Raley under club control through his age 33 season after 2028, Dom Canzone is also under control through 2028 when he will be only 30. On the farm…Laz Montes has now played exactly 64 games at the AA level in both 2025 and 2026, and has shown some improvement in the second stint (14 HR, 39 RBI in 2025 to 20 HR, 54 RBI in 2026), but he’s still maxing out at a .237 average at the level. Jonny Farmelo has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t exactly dominating at Everett the way a first round pick should. Yorger Bautista is only hitting .226 in Arizona rookie ball. If you compare those top 10 OF prospects to the Mariners top 10 SS prospects (Celesten .308/.409/.880 in Everett and Becker .271/.432/.890 in Arizona); the shortstops have the current edge in performance. This may point Seattle’s draft interests more towards reinforcing CF than SS early on.

In terms of Hull, specifically…I wonder if you don’t try to go more of the Colt Emerson route, which would be to target the bat-to-ball player, but then to add power during the development. Also like Emerson…Hull seems to have very high intangibles including leadership.

#4.129 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

There was a time in the middle of the college season that I had Vigue in every mock draft I did. He felt like a fourth round steal. But then he really seemed to scuffle over his last 5-6 regular season starts. In his start in the CWS Super Regionals vs Texas; I thought Vigue looked back to the form I saw from him at the beginning of the season. The foundation here is the sinker/sweeper combination which Vigue threw roughly 95% of the time this year. There are additional offerings in a cutter and a change that we really need to see more progress on.

#5.162 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Catcher is one of the positions I always try to include in the top six rounds of my mock drafts. Tayman is a nicely balanced hitter/defender at the backstop who can hit, hit for power, and throw. Down on the farm; Seattle’s top-ranked catching prospect, Luke Stevenson has regressed a bit in Everett after a hot start to his pro career in Modesto in 2025 where he hit .280/.460/.860 in 22 games. At Everett his line has dropped to .225/.410/.789 with only four homeruns in 50 games. There are no other catchers in the Mariners’ top 30 prospects. In previous mocks, I’ve had Seattle draft Texas catcher Carson Tinney in the second round. I don’t think that’s a crazy idea. Especially after Tinney was recently named the 2026 Division I catching Gold Glove winner. Tayman is a capable fallback plan.

Tayman hit .357/.447/1.119 with 18 HR for the year.

#6.191 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola

Coppola is a reliever by recent history, but I’m wondering/hoping if he doesn’t in fact have starter stuff. Either way, I think he is predominantly underrated on media big boards. I’m forcing his pick early to secure his services. Depending on the innings amount used to determine qualifiers; Coppola can be seen as the #1 pitcher in the country by SO/9. He had 16.6 to go with a 1.69 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, and 2.9 BB/9.

#7.220 – LHP, Texas, Luke Harrison

Harrison is a bit of a forced pick. I’m always looking for lefthanded pitching, especially starters, and Harrison looked pretty solid in his recent CWS start. Listed 6’2″/220lbs, Harrison has a season line of 4.10 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 10.8 SO/9, 3.8 BB/9. He definitely looks like a guy that needs a season or two at Gas Camp to maybe build him up to a bit more velo.

#8.250 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier continues to be in my mock since previous editions. Probably my favorite RHB in the college class. Being a senior-sign guy at 23 y/o is the only reason, I think, that he is available this late.

#9.280 – SS, HS, Christian Doty

From my favorite college RHB to my favorite prep RHB…Doty has probably my favorite swing and barrel rate of all the prep players. His future defensive position is probably a fair question, but that has also come in to play for previous Mariner prep shortstop picks like Cole Young and Colt Emerson that were drafted in the first round. That is one of the least important questions. If the bat plays; you will find a spot for him.

#10.310 – RHP, Oregon State, Isaac Yeager

For the longest time; it felt like the Mariners didn’t take drafting relievers seriously. That seemed to change, I want to say, two years ago when they really made a focused effort to draft quite a few high-value relievers. Some of those guys were quickly flipped in trades for MLB talent, but some (Charlie Beilenson and Brock Moore) are already at AA, which Seattle has frequently used as the true measuring stick for pitchers being MLB-ready (rather than AAA). I like this draft to, again, selectively take a couple fast-moving relief arms.

Yeager is a Seattle native, and I’d love for him to make his pro journey come through Everett, Tacoma, and Seattle. He’s a legit prospect coming from a pitching program in Oregon State that has ties to the Seattle player development program in the Beavers’ head coach Mitch Canham, the 2019 manager of the Arkansas Travelers. Yeager had a 2.04 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9.

This is what this half of the mock looked like in the simulator. Glitch in the program lists the Christian Doty pick as Tyler Albanese, but note the signing bonus coincides more with a prep player’s bonus.

#11.340 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

Carey would be tremendous value at this round. He hit .353/.428/1.050 with 15 HR and was a finalist for the college Gold Glove at shortstop.

#12.370 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong is one of the best righthanded power bats in the draft. He’s 6’4″/228lbs and hit .338/.453/1.211 with 24 HR in 56 games. He’ll turn 23 the week before the draft, which is the only reason he might fall this far.

#13.400 – C, Notre Dame, Mark Quatrani

Quatrani had a very strong year after transferring from Cornell to Notre Dame before this season. He hit .376/.457/1.100 with 15 HR. He doesn’t have the strongest throwing arm, but he’s a very good receiver.

#14.430 – RHP, LaTech, Declan Dahl

It’s tough to find depth starting pitching in the draft, so you kind of need to dig in crates of the smaller schools. Dahl is 6’3″/195lbs and pitched to a 3.54 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 2.5 BB/9.

#15.460 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade

Stade would be a nice little upside play as a lefty pitcher. He had a 4.36 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9. As of now his fastball is topping out at 92mph, but if we can add even 3mph to that; he could be at least a bullpen piece. I’m sort of picturing Brandyn Garcia who the M’s drafted in the 11th round in 2023 out of Texas A&M.

#16.490 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn

Horn is an overaged reliever without much velocity. So why draft him at all? The guy misses bats. He averaged 12.4 SO/9 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, and 3.2 BB/9. If everything goes right; he might be Cooper Criswell.

#17.520 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson

I really wanted to draft Taiwanese RHP Jui Chieh Lin with this pick, but I’m not really clear on his eligibility. He is currently pitching in the MLB Draft League but I don’t know if that is a de facto indication of draft eligibility.

I take Simmerson here instead, who may be poor man’s Cal Randall. He had a 3.62 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 in 32.1 relief innings for Clemson.

#18.550 – LF, Northeastern, Harrison Feinberg

I had a few outfielders that I liked at this pick, but I went with Feinberg because of how hard he plays on defense. This guy is a gamer. He hit .331/.440/1.037 with 16 HR and 42 SB for the year. He doesn’t even particularly read as that fast of a runner…but he seems to have that Josh Naylor feel for when to run.

#19.580 – RHP, Olathe West HS, Max Hamilton

Hamilton was the most last-minute addition to this mock draft. When I ran the simulator for the first ten rounds; using their pre-assigned bonus amounts; I had a surplus of $524,000 for all ten rounds. And that doesn’t factor that the Mariners may actually be able to get agreements for less than the simulator bonus amounts. If I can save another $326k on one or more picks; add that to my surplus, and add another $150k, which all picks in rounds 11-20 are allowed without penalty; I can offer another prep player a $1million signing bonus.

Hamilton is a bit of a two-way-player, but I like him on the mound. Listed 6’2″/208lbs, and there is something about his mechanics and his stuff that really speak to me.

#20.610 – 3B, Toledo, Troy Sudbrook

I like to backup my prep players in my mocks with college players at the same positions. It gives us a more developed option with which we can staff our farm teams throughout the summer as we release underdeveloping players from previous years’ drafts. Sudbrook hit .373/.467/1.132 with 11 HR, 32 doubles, and 13 SB. And he’s a solid defender at third.

Sudbrook has announced a commitment to Clemson in the transfer portal, but he will turn 23 y/o during the 2027 college season, so getting drafted may be the only thing he needs to stop him from setting foot on campus.

If Seattle can get Bolemon signed for closer to $3.5mill, and/or if they don’t manage to sign Doty in the 9th round…they will have enough signing bonus surplus to go after a prep player like Hamilton anywhere on day three of the draft and give him a seven-figure bonus. This may be the team’s last opportunity to draft prep players, so it makes so much sense to really try to stock up now.

Mariners one month away mock

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By Jared Stanger

The MLB Draft will begin day one of picks on July 11th, the national draft writers are putting out more sourced mock draft reports, so I thought it might be time for a new 20-round Mariner mock.

Let us begin with some of the most recently published mock drafts from national writers.

Jim Callis from MLB.com wrote over the weekend that, “the Mariners are targeting the same college arms as the Cubs” after previously saying the Cubs team and farm needed pitching, “which could lead to college options such as (Liam) Peterson, (Hunter) Dietz, (Tegan) Kuhns or (Cade) Townsend.” And then Callis makes one college arm addendum: “in addition to (Cole) Carlon”. Of that group; Peterson, Kuhns, Townsend are RHP, and Dietz and Carlon are LHP. Callis, with Peterson and Dietz off the board, gives the M’s Kuhns at pick #24.

Keith Law in his mock draft from early this morning went another direction with his rumor: “I’ve heard Seattle as one of the few teams on high school pitching in the first round,” and then specifically cites Carson Bolemon, Logan Schmidt, or Brody Bumila. He doesn’t specifically state they are targeting LHP, but all three of the names he mentions are prep LHP. His last comment is that if not one of the prep LHP; Seattle will “probably” pick a player with an under-slot deal. A couple thoughts: 1) the M’s have never drafted a prep pitcher higher than Ryan Sloan and Sam Carlson both at #2.55. 2) the M’s rarely go underslot with their first pick. Kade Anderson was an underslot deal last year from the #3 overall pick, but he still got $8.8mill. This year; Seattle’s entire draft bonus pool is only $8.2mill for all of the first ten rounds. The idea of the M’s two preferred options being a prep pitcher (who will most-likely cost overslot money) or a player that will sign for underslot money are contradictory. With their very limited bonus pool this year; an underslot pick makes a ton of sense, but then why would they also be looking at expensive prep pitchers. None of this really tracks, to me.

The other national mock I looked at came from a group-effort from the staff at Just Baseball published yesterday. In the alternating mock from four writers; Conor Dorney ends up representing the Seattle pick, and he mentions the M’s on college pitching, and specifies Tegan Kuhns, Cole Carlon, Jack Radel, and with Kuhns off the board; he gives the M’s Cade Townsend.

So after three mocks, the names specifically mentioned for Seattle:

RHP Liam Peterson
LHP Hunter Dietz
2x RHP Tegan Kuhns
2x RHP Cade Townsend
2x LHP Cole Carlon
LHP Logan Schmidt
LHP Brody Bumila
LHP Carson Bolemon

If we sort of Venn-diagram the data points from these three mocks; obviously we’re focused on pitching.
73% of the name mentions are college pitchers.
55% of the mentions are LHP.
45% are RHP and also college RHP.
27% are college LHP.
27% are prep LHP.

The two biggest data sets are college and LHP. Which then points us towards the Venn of Dietz and Carlon. Dietz is off the board before pick #24 in all three of the aforementioned mocks. That leaves us with Cole Carlon.

Carlon is a 6’5″/230lb lefty that pitched ASU to a 3.87 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 14.3 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9 season line. He features a pitch mix that includes a fastball that has touched 100.7 mph, and a plus slider. There is also a curve and change with lesser present grades. When I watch Carlon; I see a bunch of Gabe Speier mechanically, but obviously Carlon has about 5 mph more velo, and has a full college season of proof of concept that he can start.

Honestly, of the names that have been reported; the two that I personally have been looking at are Cade Townsend and Cole Carlon. I also really like Logan Reddemann, but after he was shutdown by UCLA in April for “arm fatigue”; we’ve not seen him getting much draft buzz in the first round. The Mariners rarely give innings to their early-round pitching draftpicks in the summer of their draft; so I don’t think it’s beyond reason that they would draft a pitcher with a known current injury. Bryan Woo was drafted with a known injury, Brody Hopkins was iirc, to name a couple. But…those guys weren’t drafted in the first round. We can, perhaps, look to do this in a later round.

For now…I’m not too mad at the idea of blending some national reporting on Mariner interests with my own eval. Carlon ticks a lot of boxes. If Seattle were to look at one of the prep LHP (and even throw Gio Rojas in there); I think I might go with Carson Bolemon. Bolemon has the least velo of the three, but probably the best pitchability, and then I just really get the sense he’s a whip-smart, mature for his age young man. He feels like a Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Ryan Sloan kind of personality.

In financial terms on Carlon…I have him in the simulator signing for $3.5mill, which would technically qualify as underslot the $3.8mill allowed for pick #24.

#1.24 = LHP, Arizona State, Cole Carlon

As I just alluded to; I see no reason not to project the Mariners will draft a pitcher with current, known arm injury. Their previous years of pitchers picked in the top two rounds will sit out the remainder of the 2026 summer and fall, with the Mariners overseeing their entire offseason and spring ramp-up.

Jacob Dudan is one of the names that qualify for this. Dudan was shut down by NC State on, roughly, April 4th, and he had Tommy John surgery on April 29th (per his own twitter). He will be down and in recovery for a minimum of a year, which could still see him make his professional debut in 2027. The other thing to consider is the shape of the Mariner’s organization for starting pitching. We literally have a six-man rotation in MLB as of today. Kade Anderson is, arguably, MLB-ready in AA right now. Ryan Sloan is also in AA, but showing some growing pains and needing more time. Logan Evans is on the IL, but still has some upside once he’s back healthy. And, if you’re a psycho for watching prospects like me, LHP Mason Peters has a sub-2.00 ERA across his first ten starts at low-A ball after being picked in the 4th round in 2025 (and also sitting for the summer after he was drafted).

This sounds like an over-abundance of riches in our starting pitching…why am I mocking two pitchers to start this mock? Because I basically just named every starter in the organization that has more than four starts and an ERA under 4.00. (Also: Evan Truitt 3.88, Colton Shaw 3.91, Nico Tellache 3.28, Dylan Wilson 1.86) The Mariners barely have any other starters ranked in their top 30 prospects (Griffin Hugus – yet to pitch, Teddy McGraw – now reliever, Michael Morales – third year in AA, Chia-Shi Shen – struggling in A-, Marcelo Perez – relief, Grant Knipp – relief, Robinson Ortiz – relief, Po-Chun Lin – mediocre in rookie ball, Charlie Beilenson – relief, Tyler Cleveland – relief, Lucas Kelly – relief, Jackson Steensma – injured).

Now…why do I see Seattle making a big, early round investment in Dudan knowing his health status? This guy screams Mariner pitching lab, to me. Listed 6’2″/191lbs, Dudan was touching 99mph this Spring on the sinker while also featuring a plus slider that borders on sweeper from his low-slot release.

Before his injury, Dudan had posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, 11.2 SO/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in eight starts. I like that Dudan has a three-year sample of pitching in the ACC where he improved his control each year. And in 2026 he made the biggest improvement while also moving from the bullpen into a starting role. This just feels like a Seattle project.

#2.65 – RHP, NC State, Jacob Dudan

In recent years, Seattle has rarely drafted a prep player after the first two rounds with the expectation of signability. Nick Becker pick #57, Ryan Sloan pick #55 were second rounders. Before that: Aidan Smith pick #124 in 2023, Ashton Izzi pick #126 in 2022, Tyler Gough pick #276 in 2022, Michael Morales pick #83 in 2021. That’s it for the last six drafts. So it’s a little bit contrary to their trends to project any prep players from here forward. But I kinda like waiting to do it. Waiting to go prep player this year is additionally tricky due to our low draft bonus amount. We can, basically, draft four players that we can offer over a $1.00 mill bonus to, as long as the rest of our draft kind of focuses on “senior-sign” types that we can give minimal bonuses to.

As I said earlier; I’ve been running simulations for the Mariners this year, and the primary simulator available online includes a bonus element. The program essentially gives every college player ranked after the top 300 prospects a default bonus of $150k. MLB teams can technically give a player a bonus as low as they want (that the player agrees to), but I actually like giving them a floor of $150k. I mean, do you really want to draft a guy that is willing to sign for $25,000?? The chances of that player panning out are slim to none, and the difference between doing that and giving a three-year, living wage type bonus to a guy that has SOME upside is, like, $100k. Just do better accounting. And the Mariners have been, more or less, following this philosophy recently. In 2025, the M’s gave a minimum bonus of $50k to any single draftpick (17th round), and a minimum of $100k to all of their picks in the top 10 rounds. They gave bonuses of exactly $150k to six picks (rounds 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 20).

The advantage of pushing prep players down to later rounds is that you can end up getting an appropriately ranked/drafted college player in the early rounds AND still getting a higher ranked prep player in a later round and just pay them the bonus of an early round pick. This, in theory, means we can get five top 100 players when we only have three picks in the top 101 overall (for example). The disadvantage of this strategy is that some prep players want BOTH the signing bonus money and the symbolic meaning of being an early round pick. You have to know your board and prenegotiate which players will still sign from a later round pick.

The most recent example of this was Aidan Smith in 2023. Smith was ranked the #78 overall player on the MLB big board. Seattle drafted him at pick #4.124, and they signed him for $1.2mill when slot money was $531k.

The other thing to consider in the prep player conversation is simply how terrible Seattle has been at developing the prep pitchers they have drafted over the years. Like, all of MLB kinda has trouble developing prep pitchers, but Seattle definitely has zero hits doing it in the Dipoto era. So it’s just terrible ROI to do it. Now, do they have a better argument about developing prep HITTERS? Certainly it feels like they have a stronger argument this year when Cole Young and Colt Emerson are representing 50% of their MLB infield, and Julio Rodriguez was developed from his teenage signing as an international player.

With all of these factors in mind; I like the way the board lines up this year to have select spots across the draft where I’m filling gaps in my college board with overslotted prep players. And those happen to be more of the hitting variety.

The first prep player I’m drafting is Mill Valley 3B, Beau Peterson. It’s not always easy to find prep players’ season stats, but I think I have a fairly accurate listing of Peterson’s season as: .535/.650/1.536 slash with 3 HR, 26×29 SB, 28 BB, and only 5 SO. I thought he was gonna have a better power number as he has previously won a high school homerun derby in one of the HS exhibitions. Regardless, I’m happy to draft the hit tool and look to add some game power.

#3.101 – 3B, Mill Valley HS, Beau Peterson

The fourth round is an interesting pivot point for me. I lowkey think we need to add another starting pitcher because those names dry up quickly after this if we don’t. But that would make three SP in our first four picks…should it be a bat for balance? The Mariners rarely target balance in their drafts. They will go hard on SP if the draft calls for it. They will draft three or four prep bats if the class and their bonus pool allow for it. Those logical thoughts don’t necessarily come into play like we think they might.

Having said all that…when I ran the simulation; I found the most exciting player consistently available to draft at this pick is actually a reliever.

#4.129 – RHP, UCLA, Cal Randall

Cal Randall is a thickly built 6’4″/235lb righthander that pitched in 34 games in 2026 where he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 16.5 SO/9, 5.5 BB/9. He actually gives up more walks than he does allow hits for the year. He works primarily from a double-plus fastball that touches 101mph, and has exceptional metrics in terms of release height, extension, IVB, etc. He also throws a change-up and a slider. If the pitching lab can do similar for Randall what they’ve done for Brock Moore (5.8 BB/9 as senior at Oregon, 3.0 BB/9 between Everett and Arkansas in 2026); they’ve got a future closer on their hands. And a quick mover through the minors.

At this point of the draft; my board suggests we can really start rolling through some underrated, high upside college bats. I think you always want to draft a catcher in the top six picks, or so, and that ends up lining up nicely to be my first pick in this stretch.

#5.165 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Tayman is listed 6’2″/210lbs, and has a really nicely balanced skillset as hitter and receiver. He is only 20 years old, but has two years at Cal Berkeley before this year at Poly where he hit .357/.447/1.119 with 18 HR, 19 doubles, 31 BB, and 50 SO. He was the central figure in the Mustangs roster that made a run in the College World Series in the last couple weeks.

#6.191 – OF, Pitt, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier is just one of my favorite bats in this whole draft. Listed at 6’5″/215lbs, Carrier hit .387/.534/1.318 with 20 HR, 15 doubles, 6×6 SB, 57 BB, 62 SO on the year. The only reason he is hypothetically available this late is that he is already 23 years old as of May, and maybe he’s limited defensively.

#7.220 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola

Honestly, I’d be a little surprised if Coppola was available this late. He’s a 6’5″/230lb righthander that primarily pitched in relief in 2026, but who had 25 starts for Rutgers between 2023-24, and recently made a three-inning start for Trenton in the summer MLB Draft League. There may be a chance he goes back to starting, which is a big part of why I want him after choosing to draft a reliever over a starter in the 4th round.

In 2026, Coppola finished with a 1.69 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, 16.6 SO/9, and 2.9 BB/9 in 12 relief apperances and one start for St Joseph’s.

#8.250 – 1B/C, Miami, Alex Sosa

I’m acknowledging Sosa has experience as a catcher, but every time I watched the Hurricanes from, say, March until their season ended in the CWS regionals; Sosa was playing 1B. If Alex still has some catching innings left him that’s an awesome bonus cause he hits lefthanded, and that is always a nice commodity to have. Listed 6’1″/208lbs, Sosa hit .338/.448/1.119 with 18 HR, 16 doubles, 41 BB, 48 SO for the year. If he ends up only playing 1B…fine. He has the power to be a decent weapon (a la Josh Naylor) as a 1B.

#9.280 – SS, Magnolia Heights HS, Christian Doty

The Mariners have had some of their best draft success going after prep shortstops, and so I have them drafting another one (with some hidden value being available late in the draft) in Doty. Listed at 6’1″/190lbs, Doty has one of my favorite righthanded hit tools in this class. He comes from Olive Branch, Mississippi which may sound familiar to Seahawk fans who might recognize Olive Branch as the high school origin of former Seahawk, KJ Wright.

Again, stat lines on prep players can be hard to find, but I show Doty’s 2026 season as: .492/.609/1.351, 6 HR, 20×20 SB, 27 BB, 10 SO. He has a college commitment to Ole Miss, so we will of course need to give him overslot money. The simulator I use doesn’t allow you to alter the bonus money offers to players, so the screenshot below will show him at an even $1.0mill bonus, but you will also be able to note that I finished the top ten picks with $310k of surplus…all of that will also go to Doty to bring his bonus up to $1.3mill.

There is a glitch in this mock draft simulator where most of the rankings after like #250 have duplicate names. So there are two players that are listed as #386 on the simulator big board, Christian Doty and Tyler Albanese. The correct player shows up as the simulation rolls (see directly below), but then it is the other player at the conclusion of the draft, which I also show further down.

#10.310 – RHP, Oregon State, Isaac Yeager

Oregon State had a really nice pitching staff this year, and I seriously considered multiple names from their team across this whole mock. I like LHP Ethan Kleinschmit in the 2nd or 3rd round, I like RHP Eric Segura in the 4th round slot where I took Randall. I like reliever Wyatt Queen wherever we can get him.

I ended up only mocking Yeager, but I’m really happy to get him. He’s a former UW Husky who originally comes from Bishop Blanchet HS in Seattle, so this will be a homecoming for him. Listed 6’6″/255lbs, Yeager looks more like a Husky tightend than a reliever, but he had a 2.04 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9 for the year. He throws a fastball sitting 95mph, and a plus slider as his out-pitch.

Here is the screenshot of my simulation run of the top ten round picks.

#11.340 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

With the signing of Christian Doty potentially a question mark; it’s important that we draft another shortstop that we know we can sign because, ultimately, we still have to fill a farm system with players that can play innings for the next three years, or so.

I actually really like Carey. He’s one of three college SS this year that I found that I really ended up liking for their on-field skills and intangibles. There was Tyson Leblanc who was the clutchest hitter for the Kansas squad that made a deep run in the CWS, and who is now projecting to be off the board before pick #65. There was Jake Schaffner who played SS for North Carolina and who has a really nice glove. And there is Carey who seems to be the one with the lowest profile that we can still get outside of the top ten rounds.

Carey hit .353/.428/1.050 with 15 HR, 16 doubles, 21 BB, 49 SO this year. He also plays a very solid defensive SS.

#12.370 – C, VMI, Cole Raile

Even if Alex Sosa ends up playing some catcher; I don’t think it’s terrible for Seattle to draft three. They end up being useful trade pieces. Seattle drafted three catchers in 2025 (Luke Stevenson, Luke Heyman, Grant Jay) and have already traded Heyman to Boston in the Alex Hoppe deal.

Raile is really an interesting player. He’s one of the more athletic catchers you’re going to find. He has power (16 HR), he has a great arm (33% caught stealing), and he can run (24×26 SB). We probably can’t get him this late, but c’est la vie.

#13.400 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong is another guy I have no clue of his true value. Most draft boards don’t even list him, which could mean he’s lower than top 500 names, but he hit .338/.453/1.211 with 24 HR, 14 doubles, 35 BB, 54 SO, so why wouldn’t MLB teams want him at decent price? Like, this isn’t a profile of a guy that is selling out strikeouts to get to his power. He’s a little overaged in that he will be 23 the week before the draft, but that’s a minor issue in my opinion if the upside holds, and he moves fast.

#14.430 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson

Simmerson was a recent find for me and I’m wondering why he’s not ranked higher, but whatever. I don’t make the rules and I don’t make the bugs. Simmerson is listed 6’2″/205lbs and had a 3.62 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 with 4 saves in 19 relief appearances.

#15.460 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade

It’s always good to look for depth lefthanders, especially if they can start. Stade had a 4.36 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9 in ten starts and four relief appearances. The peripheral numbers are better than the ERA.

#16.490 – RF, Miami Ohio, Tommy Harrison

Harrison had a massive season playing in the MAC this year, but he’s showing his flaws after 16 plate appearances in the MLB Draft League. In the college season he hit .386/.507/1.205 with 17 HR, 16 doubles, 41 BB, 33 SO.

#17.520 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn

Horn is an interesting profile. He’s listed 6’4″/200lbs and had a 3.21 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 12.4 SO/9, 3.2 BB/9. He doesn’t have much velo, but he does enough with movement and deception that he strikes guys out. His ceiling might be kind of a Cooper Criswell profile, but that’s well worth the pick this late.

#18.550 – LF, Northeastern, Harrison Feinberg

When I discovered Feinberg I really liked his game. Listed 6’1″/210lbs, he hit .331/.440/1.037 with 16 HR, 15 doubles, 42 SB, 37 BB, 52 SO. And the guy plays all out on defense.

#19.580 – RHP, Seton Hall Prep, JJ Drennan

With the structure of this draft; you basically need to draft a prep player late like this as a guy you can offer big money to in case one of your prep players from the top ten rounds falls through and you end up with a bunch of surplus bonus money. I figure it’s better to try this move with a prep pitcher than hitter because of the Mariners’ reputation for developing pitching. Drennan is from New Jersey and has a commitment to Boston College. Neither of those is known as a hotbed for baseball talent, so there might be a bit more flexibility to sign him away from his college commitment.

#20.610 – 3B, Toledo, Troy Sudbrook

Sudbrook is 6’3″/205lbs and hit .373/.467/1.132 with 11 HR, 32 doubles, 13 SB, 30 BB, 40 SO. Seattle doesn’t really draft and develop third basemen, they prefer to draft shortstops and convert them, so I like drafting one with the knowledge he already is a 3B.

I’m currently pretty happy with this mock. It’s fairly balanced, which I generally like even though Seattle will never necessarily force a balanced draft.

I predominantly think the best players available in the first round are pitchers…either prep or college. I would love a Logan Reddemann pick.

I think there are interesting options in the second round. I love Texas catcher Carson Tinney, but a second round catcher feels rich with Cal Raleigh in the bigs and a Luke Stevenson pick in the second last year. I think prep outfielder Blake Bowen would be super interesting as a guy built like a linebacker but who can hit, run, and throw at elite levels.

I really like LHP Ethan Kleinschmit if he falls to the third round.

I really like a number of college RHP starters in the fourth round including Declan Dahl, Eric Segura, Cal Scolari, Josh McDevett, and maybe Dylan Vigue if the Seattle pitching lab can fix him. Also a Minnesota RHP named Isaac Morton, who also I believe has needed TJ surgery recently.

I like a number of prep pitchers at various rounds. I like LHP Carson Bolemon a lot. I like Kaden Waechter, who reminds me a bit of Bryan Woo. I like Kaiden McCarthy who is a 17 year old that reclassified to the 2026 draft, and likely WANTS to sign, and who already is touching 99mph. I like Washington prep pitcher Eli Herst. I like a guy named Harrison Pollina, who isn’t even on the list of over 1000 players within the simulator I used.

And there are so many college bats I like that kinda feel like they fall in the no-man’s-land areas between Seattle picks, but don’t seem worthy of a reach, but also don’t seem likely to drop to the next round’s pick. Andrew Williamson, Ace Reese, Logan Hughes, Caden Sorrell, Tyson Leblanc, Gavin Grahovac, Dee Kennedy, etc. But when I like my later round guys as much as those top, say, 125 names…I just would rather take the pitcher early because I don’t have the midround pitching names that I like as much. So this is where I end up.

Mariners May Mock 2.0

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

(I started writing this mock with the intent to get it done before the M’s game started, but I only got through about 13 rounds before first pitch. So if it feels rushed…it kind of was.)

I’m not gonna get all flashy with the exposition. I kind of have no clue what Seattle is looking to do this year. I don’t love the prep players available at pick #24, so I tend towards the college players. On top of that; I feel like the better overall draft structure looks better if their first pick is a college pitcher. I think the group looks something like: Logan Reddemann, Tegan Kuhns, and Cade Townsend. These are all righthanded starters from blue-chip programs who are having overall strong years. I think my favorite is Reddemann, but he’s also the one I see lasting to pick #24 the least. Kuhns is my least favorite due to his kind of immature personality. I feel like I land most often on Cade Townsend.

#1.24 – RHP, Ole Miss, Cade Townsend

Listed 6’1″/185lbs, Townsend is a young 21 y/o having just had his birthday May 5th. He’s got a deep pitch repertoire and for the year he’s rocking a 1.119 WHIP, 12.4 SO/9, and 2.6 BB/9. Seattle has had great early returns on the last starting pitcher named Kade they drafted out of the SEC last year; so why not run it back?

#2.65 – SS, Kansas State, Dee Kennedy

Seattle has frequently backed up their first round college pitcher with a prep pitcher. I’ve decided not to do that this time. I’ve actually found in my simulations that I like going college heavy in the top of the draft, and then targeting some overslot prep players with picks in the middle of the draft. Seattle hasn’t used this strategy in a minute, but I’m liking it this year.

Kennedy is currently the starting shortstop for the Wildcats, but he has also played significant innings as their starting 3B last year, as well as playing 50 games at 2B for Texas back in 2024.

Kennedy has a smaller frame at 5’11″/180lbs, but on the year he has a .359/.463/1.205 slash with 20 HR and 21 SB in 54 games. I love the combo of power and speed.

#3.101 – RHP, Ole Miss, Taylor Rabe

Rabe has been one of the biggest draft risers in recent weeks as he has struck out 27 batters in his two most-recent starts where he has pitched a combined 12.0 innings. He has walked only one over that time. For the season he has 81 SO to 8 BB. And he has that kind of control while also touching 99mph with his fastball. And at 6’5″/200lbs, Rabe looks very much like the kind of pitcher Seattle targeted in the years that saw them find Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock.

At one point, I was drafting Rabe in the 5th round. Now, I’m just hoping a late third is early enough to get him.

#4.129 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

Sometimes a given draft year starts taking on a vibe similar to a previous draft. The M’s have had a few draft classes that went heavy on pitching in the earlier rounds. They did it most recently in 2024 when they drafted Jurrangelo Cjintje, then Ryan Sloan, and then a bunch of big velo reliever types. They did it in 2019 when they opened with five consecutive pitchers, and eight of the first nine.

I kind of just like the structure of this class going heavy on pitchers in the top ten rounds, and then filling in some bats in the second half.

Vigue is another SEC pitcher with good size at 6’3″/230lbs, and whose stuff looks better than his results. He’s got a 3.57 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.2 SO/9, 4.9 BB/9 on the year. His velo isn’t overwhelming, but I like the way his fastball and slider interact with each other.

Vigue is already 22 y/o, so we may be able to get him slightly underslot.

#5.162 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier might be my favorite pure hitter in this draft. His season line is: .396/.543/1.361 with 20 HR, 66 RBI in 53 games. He will be turning 23 y/o this Wednesday, so we should be able to get him for underslot money as long as he’s still on the board at this point.

#6.191 – 1B, Miami, Alex Sosa

I originally started liking Sosa because he was a lefty-hitting catcher, but as I kept doing more research I started to realize he’s mostly playing 1B this year for the Hurricanes. At that point I started moving off of him as a pick, but I just wasn’t liking the overall draft class as much without his bat in there. So I just won’t sweat what his defensive position is/will be. If we can get some catching innings out of him…great. If he’s a first baseman…great. If he’s a DH…bummer, but we’ll deal. He’s hitting .335/.448/1.118 with 16 HR, 64 RBI in 53 games.

#7.220 – C, Notre Dame, Mark Quatrani

Quatrani is a catcher I only found recently, and the more I dug into him; the more I started to like him. In 2026 he is hitting .373/.457/1.094 with 14 HR, and 64 RBI. Then I noticed that he hasn’t had a defensive error in two or three years. Then I noticed that he was a transfer player this year, and before Notre Dame he had played two years for Cornell…in the Ivy League. Feels like a future MLB manager.

#8.250 – RHP, VCU, Zach Peters

Peters is already 23 y/o, so we can get him for underslot money, but he’s also got some upside having pitched to a 1.62 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 15.8 SO/9 in 44.1 innings out of the bullpen.

#9.280 – LHP, South Alabama, Jaxon Shineflew

Lefthanded pitchers always seem to get overdrafted every year, so it’s tough to find value in a LHP later in the draft. Shineflew might have some traits that the Seattle pitching lab can elevate.

#10.310 – RHP, Vermont Academy, Kaiden McCarthy

McCarthy is super young for the class having only recently reclassified from 2027 to 2026. Listed 6’0″/190lbs, but already showcasing a fastball touching 99mph. Seattle has had some luck finding prep players from unorthodox, northern states like Vermont where Kaiden is from. Nick Becker came out of New York, Ryan Sloan came out of Illinois, Colt Emerson came from Ohio, Cole Young came from Pennsylvania.

Obviously, Mccarthy will require a significant overslot bonus in order to sign him away from college, but I’ve accounted for that with, basically, all underslot deals outside of my first two picks. I could give him pretty close to $3mill to get him signed, but industry sources say he might sign for closer to $1.5mill. That would be great because we can still use surplus bonus pool money going into rounds 11-20, even though those picks are not slotted.

#11.340 – SS, Emani Ford

As I was experimenting with when and where to target prep players that would need to get seven-figure overslot deals; I really started liking the look of drafting those guys in the 9th, 10th, 11th round range. It also started to be clear to me that, if I didn’t draft prep players in the 2nd-4th round range like Seattle has typically done in recent years; I would have significant bonus surplus available after the 10th round.

So I started looking for prep players that had kind of 5th-7th round projection, with bonus expectations of around $1mill, and college commitments to underwhelming schools. I found Ford. Listed 6’1″/177lbs, Ford is a switch-hitter that plays primarily shortstop, but may have a future in the outfield. I just love the swing and the barrel rate from this guy.

#12.370 – RHP, Virginia, Tyler Kapa

Kapa is a 6’2″/195lb closer for Virginia who has a 1.27 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, and 11 saves in 23 appearances this year. His stuff just looks like a Seattle guy, to me.

#13.400 – 2B, Iowa, Gable Mitchell

If there’s one thing that I’m displeased with in my own mock draft; it is that it is sorely lacking in lefties. Both pitching and hitting. So when I found lefties that I like; I made sure to fit them in. Mitchell is a 5’9″/185lb infielder who played 47 games at shortstop for the Hawkeyes last year, 54 games at 2B for them in 2024, before moving back to primarily 2B this year. He also has six games in his career at 3B. This year he is hitting .375/.467/1.027 with 5 HR, 13 SB, and 30 BB to 18 SO. And the glove is very solid.

#14.430 – LHP, NC State, Cooper Consiglio

Consiglio may be a tough-sign as he is young for a Junior (won’t be 21 until November), and he could easily decide to stay in school another year, maybe make some transfer portal money, and then look to be a higher draftpick in 2027. He could also decide to stay in school to try to improve upon his performance this year: 5.73 ERA, 1.441 WHIP, 10.7 SO/9, 4.2 BB/9.

Seattle makes this kind of pick, who doesn’t sign, all the time. They did it last year with a guy named Griffin Stieg in the 18th round (and he’s been awful this year back at Virginia Tech). They did it with Brian Walters in the 19th round in 2024. They did it with Troy Taylor in the 20th round of 2021 draft (then turned around and drafted him in the 12th round in 2022).

#15.460 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong was a difficult guy to place. He has had one of the best power seasons of anyone in the class, but he’s a 1B/DH only type who is going to be 23 in July. National baseball draft outlets aren’t giving him much respect even though he has hit .338/.448/1.217 this year with 24 HR, 64 RBI in 54 games. He also, famously, was the guy that hit three grand slams in the same game back in February. Seattle needs more righthanded power in the system, so I would be fine taking a guy like Armstrong as early as the 6th round (for underslot).

#16.490 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

Any mock draft I do, I kinda want to find at least two catchers and at least two shortstops over the course of the 20-21 picks. Carey is a guy I found that I like, who is not getting much draft love. He’s hitting .347/.418/1.040 this year with 14 HR and 9 SB. He’s got just a really clean, line-drive stroke to him. There could be more here to unearth.

#17.520 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Tayman marks the second of my two catching draftpicks. He’s a little bit young for the class as a Junior that won’t turn 21 until August 26th (cutoff for draft eligible sophomores would be that they have to be 21 by August 1st). This year he’s hitting .351/.443/1.116 with 16 HR, 53 RBI in 54 games.

#18.550 – RHP, Oregon State, Wyatt Queen

Queen is a local product coming out of Lake Stevens High School before playing at Oregon State. Listed 6’2″/214lbs with a season line of 2.41 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 15.1 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9 across 41 innings in 19 relief appearances. Those innings over that number of appearances mean he averaged over 2 innings of relief per game pitched. Feels very much like a Seattle middle relief guy.

#19.580 – RHP, Lamar, Chris Olivier

Olivier is just a guy that I spotted with some free and easy mechanics and some pitch shapes that look like a good starting point. If we can add some weight (listed only 150lbs) and then some velocity (topping out at 90mph right now); maybe we can build from there.

#20.610 – OF, Mercer, Chris Katz

Katz is a well-over-aged player (he will be 23.5 y/o by the time of the draft), but he’s working on a 20 HR season where he’s walked exactly twice as much as he has struck-out (48 BB to 24 SO), and that, to me, is the kind of profile I like to dig into. His slash line is .374/.496/1.245 with 71 RBI and 38 XBH over 56 games.

I realize this mock is atypical to the format the Mariners have followed in recent years, but the net outcome looks almost exactly like what their draft classes have looked like. I’d kinda like to see them give this a go. Considering how small their bonus pool is; this might be the way to work around that.

Mariner 2026 Mock Draft 1.0

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The 2026 MLB Draft will be following this year’s NFL Draft to Pennsylvania with this year’s baseball selection events hitting Philadelphia, after the NFL conducted theirs in Pittsburgh. We’re about nine weeks away from the July 11th to 13th draft days.

The Mariners, who traded away a second round competitive balance B pick as part of the Brendan Donovan trade, will go into the draft with picks: #1.24, #2.65, #3.101, #4.129, #5.162, #6.191, #7.220, #8.250, #9.280, #10.310, #11.340, #12.370, #13.400, #14.430, #15.460, #16.490, #17.520, #18.550, #19.580, #20.610.

The real draft will be 20 rounds, but I’ve done enough study to get us up to a 15 round draft today.

In another parallel to the 2026 NFL Draft; this year’s MLB Draft had huge expectations to be a great draft class immediately following the conclusion of the 2025 draft, but many of the projected elite players have gotten hurt or had gravely underwhelming seasons. The top of this class is now being back-filled with college players that have climbed into the first round only in these last three months. There isn’t any one particular strength of the four quadrants to baseball drafts: college pitcher, college hitter, prep pitcher, prep hitter.

The Mariners, after trading away pick #2.68, find themselves with one of the smallest draft bonus pools in the league (24th of 30 teams), and therefore they may not have much flexibility to draft prep players that they can give overslot money to. This may be a college-heavy draft for them. Their top pick at #1.24 is slotted for $3,818,700, with another $1,382,600 for pick #65. The Mariners typically do not save much money with their first two picks, and any overslot savings tend to come from any combination of picks in rounds 4-10.

Looking at the late first round…I tend to think Seattle will be presented with choosing from a handful of the best college players remaining. There are a couple of prep pitchers that currently rank near the 24th pick in LHP Brody Bumila (#22) and RHP Coleman Borthwick (#24). I kind of don’t see those at legitimate options as Seattle has typically avoided prep pitchers with their first pick. They have occasionally taken a prep pitcher with a lesser pick AFTER securing a more stable college player with their first pick. When I look at the MLB Pipeline big board; I tend to think Seattle may be choosing between two college outfielders, and two college righthand pitchers: RHP Logan Reddemann, RHP Cade Townsend, OF Caden Sorrell, OF Aiden Robbins. I would prefer one of the pitchers.

Seattle has not typically drafted outfielders in the first round. Jonny Farmelo was pick #1.29, but this was Seattle’s Prospect Promotion Incentive bonus pick award (earned after Julio Rodriguez won Rookie of the Year), and after Seattle drafted SS Colt Emerson at #1.22 in the same class.

Also, as I sketched out my overall draft, I found that there was a natural gap in available pitching after the first round, whereas you can frequently find outfielders deeper into the draft.

So my hope for the Mariners becomes that they can snag either Logan Reddemann or Cade Townsend at 24. I think Reddemann has the better resume to go earlier, so my likeliest, wishful outcome becomes Townsend.

#1.24 – RHP, Ole Miss, Cade Townsend

Townsend kind of falls more in line with the Mariners more recent starter picks of Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, Kade Anderson in that he’s not the biggest guy. Listed at 6’1″/185lbs; Townsend has an arsenal of 7 or 8 pitches, but the primaries are a fastball that has been up to 98mph and a plus slider. In 2026 he is carrying a 2.42 ERA, 0.962 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9. He did miss some time earlier this year with an undisclosed injury, but it was at worst two weeks until he returned.

I’m not planning to do anything special with the signing bonus for Townsend. He gets the full-slot money.

#2.65 – C, Texas, Carson Tinney

My mock drafts generally tend to more balance than what Seattle eventually ends up with, so I end up with fairly even numbers of hitters and pitchers. So I like a bat in the 2nd after a pitcher in the 1st. My shortlist included Texas A&M second baseman Gavin Grahovac, UCLA outfielder Will Gasparino, and Texas catcher Carson Tinney. I went with Tinney because of his prodigious righthanded power, and outstanding abilities as a defensive catcher.

Tinney is a huge backstop at 6’4″/240lbs and is hitting .323/.478/1.168 with 16 HR, 39 RBI, 5×6 SB in 44 games after transferring to Texas from Notre Dame this last offseason. He’s got some of the best exit velocities I’ve seen in the class. The Mariners need this kind of righty bat in the system.

Again, Tinney gets full-slot money.

#3.101 – LHP, West Virginia, Maxx Yehl

After many years of neglecting lefthanded pitching…the Mariners finally did some promising work drafting Kade Anderson in the 1st and Mason Peters in the 4th round in last year’s draft. Trying to continue that trend I put forth a concentrated effort to find quality LHP in this class. I didn’t find many. So, I’m putting a priority in drafting one early.

Yehl is a big southpaw at 6’6″/235lbs, and has posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 11.0 SO/9, and 2.7 BB/9 across eleven starts this year. His fastball maxes at 96mph, but more comfortably 93-95mph, with an armslot that is ideal for pairing a slider.

Full-slot money of $778,200 for Yehl.

#4.129 – SS, Orange Lutheran HS, CJ Weinstein

Weinstein feels very much in Seattle’s wheelhouse on the heels of Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete as a lefty-hitting prep shortstop with plus hit tool.

Weinstein is a bit of an overaged high school prospect having just turned 19 this last March. So he may slide a bit in the draft, but because high school players always carry the threat of not signing to go to college; we will need to overslot him. Pick #129 starts at $591,700. I’m going to borrow another $408,300 from later picks to get him up to a cool $1million signing bonus.

#5.162 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

For whatever reason, I feel more confident that Vigue is a Mariner type of pitcher than I do Yehl, and a bit more than I do Townsend. Listed 6’3″/230lbs, Vigue has a 2.35 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, 11.0 SO/9, and 4.9 BB/9 across 11 starts and one relief appearance this year for Georgia. The fastball isn’t super high-velo, but he throws with good run, and that plays off nicely with the slider that is moving away from RHB. I think the Seattle pitching lab could improve his velo and control.

It was difficult to find Vigue’s literal school class standing…he played two years at Michigan ’24-’25 before transferring to Georgia this year, so it feels like he may be a true Junior, but he is currently 22 years old and will be turning 23 in December. So age-wise, he looks like a Senior. With that in mind, I’m planning on going underslot on his bonus which is slotted at $429,100. If I can save $200k on him; I’d be in good shape for paying off the overslot money on Weinstein.

#6.191 – OF/DH, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier is for sure a senior sign target as a guy that will be turning 23 in two weeks, and has played two years for Pitt after playing three years for Miami. He’s listed 6’5″/215lbs and he’s hitting .388/.550/1.392 with 18 HR, 61 RBI, 6×6 SB in 45 games this year. I guess the reason he might fall this far is age, and maybe a bit because his future profile probably has him relegated to more of a DH role.

Similar to Tinney; I just would love to get this kind of righthanded bat into the system. I think we offer him $175,000 bonus, which gives us another $160,900 savings that goes back to Weinstein’s signing. We only need to save another $47,400 in rounds 7-10 to

#7.220 – CF, Georgia, Rylan Lujo

Lujo was an interesting find for me. He played exclusively 3B last year for Dayton, but has turned into a pretty serviceable centerfielder this year after tranferring to Georgia. He really kinda feels like righthanded Brendan Donovan, to me. Listed 6’2″/192lbs, he’s hitting .348/.440/1.029 with 7 HR, 29 RBI, 7×8 SB this year for the Bulldogs.

I think we can give Lujo full-slot at $266,100.

#8.250 – SS, Kansas, Tyson Leblanc

Whenever you draft a prep player; chances are good that the Mariners will be slow and cautious to develop him. Especially over the summer of his draft year. What this also means is that you need to draft a college counterpart to the prep player who can begin playing within weeks of the draft. Teams need new draft signees to backfill for player promotions and player releases that come towards the heart of the summer.

Leblanc is listed 6’0″/195lbs and has hit .333/.415/1.077 with 16 HR, 49 RBI, 9×10 SB in 2026 for the Jayhawks. From what I can discern he also plays a solid defensive shortstop, and he might have the clutch gene.

#9.280 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola

Coppola is a big, righthanded reliever who has pitched to a 2.10 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, 17.7 SO/9, and 2.7 BB/9 across 30.0 innings so far in 2026. He is a senior sign as a guy turning 23 in November, who has played two years at Rutgers, one at Arizona, and one at St Joseph’s. Slot is $202,700 and we can offer him $155,300 with no penalties after paying CJ Weinstein overslot money.

#10.310 – RHP,Texas A&M, Clayton Freshcorn

The Mariners have done well to add some high-octane late inning arms in the last few drafts: Brock Moore, Christian Little, Lucas Kelly to name a few. As part of the balance I’m looking for in my mocks; I continue to look to add fresh arms to the pile.

Listed 6’0″/180lbs, Freshcorn has made 20 relief appearances this year resulting in a 1.95 ERA, 1.052 WHIP, 10.6 SO/9, 1.1 BB/9 and 10 saves.

#11.340 – RHP, UNCW, Cooper Allen

Every once in a while, the Mariners get to draft a Seahawk. Allen is a 6’1″/200lb righty for the North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks. In 12 (ahem) starts this year he has posted a 2.60 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9, and 2.1 BB/9.

#12.370- 1B, VMI, Grayson Fitzwater

Fitzwater is a 6’1″/215lb first baseman from VMI hitting .338/.493/1.293 this year with 19 HR, 58 RBI, 11×13 SB in 46 games this year.

#13.400 – LHP, South Alabama, Jaxon Shineflew

Much like finding a lefthanded starter; it was tough to find some lefthanded relievers. Shineflew is 6’2″/175 lbs and has a 4.03 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

#14.430 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

It’s always good to get extra shortstops. Carey is 6’2″/210lbs and he’s hitting .356/.424/1.063 with 12 HR and 55 RBI. I love the swing and the launch angle.

#15.480 – RHP, Virginia, Tyler Kapa

The closer for Virginia; Kapa is listed 6’2″/195lbs and has a 1.42 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9, and 11 saves this year. His fastball is up to 96mph with 20″ IVB. Honestly, I should have switched him with Shineflew in the 13th round, but I already added the video hyper links, etc.

Seahawks pre-Combine mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The 2026 NFL Combine hits next week with the player arrivals starting on Sunday, and the first day of on-field testing and workouts coming on Thursday. I messed around a bit with some online mock draft simulators this morning just to kind of calibrate where player projection is pre-combine, and we’ll have this document to compare to after players get the the SPARQ/RAS bump.

The first thing we have to address is the draft capital. Currently, the Seahawks sit at only four draftpicks. Those fall at roughly #1.32, #2.64, #3.96, and #6.212. This draft is commonly thought of as not being particularly strong in talent, and it’s entirely plausible that John Schneider has seen this drop in talent coming, and he traded picks away to make better use of the resource. It could also be possible that we haven’t seen the entirety of the plan, and that Schneider sensed a late first round draftpick was coming in a draft that has maybe only 15-16 true first round grades, and that he would inevitably be trading back our first pick.

I’m kind of counting on the latter, so I made multiple trades right out of the shoot. Here is what that ended up looking like:

The other thing I’ve been thinking about as the Super Bowl champs, on a team that has used former rookie free agents like Drake Thomas, Jalen Sundell, Josh Jobe, Ty Okada in major roles this season…is Schneider thinking he could use the clout the Seahawks currently have to recruit hard in UDFA rather than using many day three draftpicks??

I’m sure they will do that, but it’s less clear how much useful talent will still be around after the draft. Like, most of the NFL-caliber talent is going to find their way into the 256 draftpicks. So I figured I would sneak in a headstart on rookie free agency with a number of seventh round picks.

So, let’s get to it.

#2.38 – Cornerback, San Diego State, Chris Johnson

I’ve seen/heard the recent discourse that this is a decent corner class. Horseshit. Certainly, I don’t think there are many guys that pass the Schneider/Macdonald “Smart, Tough, Reliable” standard that has marked our draft success(es) over the last four drafts. I think we need to find that guy, and take him early. Chris Johnson ticks so many of the boxes we’re looking for. He’s a smart dude, he’s got great 2025 production, and I think his tape is so consistent. With the Seahawks needing to replace (or re-sign one, and draft one) both Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe; this is a demand meets lack of supply move.

#3.67 – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

I, personally, think Center is a bigger need than most people. Yes, Jalen Sundell was a passable starter last year, but Geno Smith was also passable for a time when he was here. And we kind of didn’t recognize/admit at the time that we could upgrade his position until he was gone and Darnold was good for the first two months of the season.

I think this is where Center is at. It’s either we go hard after Tyler Linderbaum in free agency and pay the premium he’ll cost, or we spend a premium pick on the best Center in the draft, and our O-line will be one of the best in the league for the next 3-5 years.

#3.96 – Running back, Arkansas, Mike Washington Jr

Unfortunately, with Ken Walker hitting free agency and Zach Charbonnet coming back from a significant knee injury; we need to backfill the backfield with a pretty decent pick this year. I’m still not totally sure the type of running back that Macdonald wants if given a choice. He sort of arrived in Seattle with our top two backs already in the building, and we haven’t had to draft or sign one since.

Washington is a big back at 6’1″/228lbs, but he reads on film as a pretty fast athlete, as well. I thought he looked really good at the Senior Bowl, so I’d be happy to add him to the RB room.

#4.120 – Edge, Western Michigan, Nadame Tucker

I fully admit that I don’t think Tucker is the type of Edge that Macdonald prefers. He is a smaller, more speed-based rusher. But I think he has some of the most legit passrush chops of all of the DE in this class. And I have a plan to address the edge-setting DE later on.

Boye Mafe is a free agent, and it’s not totally clear if the team will retain Uchenna Nwosu, so it’s possible we will need two Edge replacements.

#4.134 – Linebacker, Oregon, Bryce Boettcher

I think I’ve had linebacker higher in some previous mocks, but it seems like we’re gonna continue to roll with Ernest Jones, Drake Thomas, Tyrice Knight, and I lowkey think there might be some high optimism in the building on practice squad LB Chris Pooh Paul going forward.

But we are set to lose Chazz Surratt to free agency, so we can draft a replacement that can start on special teams, and we develop him to eventually replace Jones in a couple years.

Boettcher is an interesting cat. He is a northwest native coming from Eugene, OR. He was actually drafted in the 13th round of the MLB draft by the Houston Astros in 2024. Last year Bryce totaled 136 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 6 PBU, 1 INT, and 2 FF. And he can even play some goalline fullback.

#5.158 – Wide receiver, Texas Tech, Reggie Virgil

I think our wide receiver room is in pretty good shape. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be getting a new contract soon, I’m sure. Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, Jake Bobo are all still under contract. We’re probably going to re-sign Rashid Shaheed. Which would mean we’re only losing Dareke Young to free agency. So I don’t think we need a huge investment at the spot. Maybe in 2027 we go back to the well for an early pick at WR.

Virgil was one of the pleasant surprises for me at the Senior Bowl. He measured up at 6’2″/188lbs, and played with good speed, good route-running, and good hands.

#6.212 – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton

Coby Bryant is set to become a free agent, and it’s possible the team extends him, but in case we don’t; I’ve got Singleton as our next safety in waiting. I’ve been tracking Deshon since the 2024 college season. I think he’s a very solid, high-floor player. If he only becomes a special teams ace…it’s fine. I feel comfortable with Julian Love and Ty Okada as our starters.

#7.222 – Defensive Tackle, South Carolina, Nick Barrett

This pick is mostly a flyer for me. We have some aging DT on the roster in Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed, and not a ton of depth unless Ryley Mills plays 2026 more like he played in the Super Bowl than the rest of his 2025 season. I had some DT I was hoping to pull late in the draft, but most had already been picked in the simulator when I got to this spot. I don’t have a compelling story/case for Barrett other than he did tick a couple of production metrics when I studied this college DT class.

#7.226 – Offensive Line, Washington, Carver Willis

The Seahawks are set on the starting OL at both tackle spots, which is where Willis played for UW in 2025. But…Seattle is potentially losing swing OT Josh Jones to free agency, and I also think Willis could compete for the starting RG job (a position he played for KState earlier in his career). There’s also a possibility Willis just replaces someone like Mason Richman or Bryce Cabeldue as bench OL. Hawks did move on quickly from 2024 draftpick Sataoa Laumea, so maybe they just continue to churn OL bodies until they find the right mix.

It won’t surprise me if Willis is one of the big winners at the Combine for OL. I think he looks sneaky athletic on tape.

#7.237 – Defensive End, LSU, Jack Pyburn

My last pick is one of the guys I looked at only recently. I had the idea that, with a strong/deep class of defensive ends, it might be a good idea to double-dip. It also kinda gave me more leeway to draft Nadame Tucker, who might not be the right ‘type’ of edge rusher. I think Pyburn IS the right type of Macdonald edge-setter, and then it’s just a question of whether or not his passrush can pick up with pro coaching and landing in the Macdonald scheme.

Pyburn is listed at 6’4″/264lbs and registered 52 tackles last year (a lot for a DE), but only 5.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and 8 hurries. If he only ends up on the practice squad, or even if he doesn’t make the 70-man roster in September, it’s not a big loss.

Final look at the simulator results:

Seahawks playoff pregame mock draft

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re hours away from the Seahawks divisional round playoff game at Lumen Field against our rival 49ers, and I’ve got a new 7-round mock draft for everyone.

A few points of order…at one point a follower raised the question of what happened to the Seahawks’ draftpick they acquired when they traded OT Mike Jerrell to Atlanta. I was like, “oh yeah, what did happen with that?” I finally went back to the news releases from the day of the trade and realized that draftpick was actually a conditional 2027 pick. So it is still in play, just not for this year.

The second point…the Seahawks first round pick. I’ve been advocating that John Schneider could/should trade our first round pick for a veteran player. I think that idea lost it’s plausibility when Seattle secured the playoff first round bye. Which also meant they would draft no higher than #27 overall if they lose today. And that might be #28 at the highest, depending on tie-breakers with Denver.

Optimistically, Seattle might be drafting in the 30’s. I just don’t see NFL teams that might be selling off their blue-chip players on big contracts; would be selling them to a team that is drafting that late in the 1st round. This is why Seattle should have gotten it done at the trade deadline last November…at that time, there was mystery about where their pick would land. Now there is much less mystery, and by the time of the new league year; there will be zero mystery…Seattle’s first rounder is more like a second.

I just don’t think we’re going to be winning any kind of bidding war for Maxx Crosby, or whoever, with our low-value 2026 first round pick. And one can surmise from our roster composition that our 2027 draftpick will be in the 20’s as well.

So……what does one do in a bad draft class, with less than 15 consensus first round grades across the league, and a first round pick that won’t interest teams selling vet talent? We go back to the John Schneider well…trading back.

It’s a very legitimate question on whether John is going to worry much about getting more bites at the apple in the 2026 draft. At the moment, he has put himself in position to make only four picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th rounds. Is that the end game, or has he been planning to augment that somehow between the end of the season and the end of the draft? We can only speculate.

Personally, I look at the Seahawks pending 2026 free agents, and I don’t see the names of the team’s best players running out of contract. It’s a group of, essentially, role players. The biggest name is probably Ken Walker. After K9, the list goes Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, Boye Mafe, Josh Jones, Coby Bryant, Dareke Young. Technically, Rashid Shaheed is also coming up, but I expect they will get him done.

We’re not losing big names, so maybe we don’t need to draft big names. We could, theoretically, plan to draft for the class the year has provided, which has serendipitously lined up perfectly for the free agent class we’re losing. But I think you need more lottery tickets because in a weak draft there is less guarantee that each pick will pay off.

I think we need more picks, not less. Having draft capital allows you to be fluid throughout the draft. It’s much harder to pick select spots to move UP in the draft when you only start with four picks. I will make three trades within the draft.

First…trading back #1.32 to Houston for pick #2.38 + #4.106. Texans currently have nine picks to deal from.

Second…trading back #2.64 to Pittsburgh for picks #3.76 + #4.121 + #6.214. The Steelers currently project to have twelve picks throughout the draft.

Third…traing back #6.214 to the Jets for picks #7.218 + #7.242. The Jets also hold twelve picks going into the draft. All of the teams I’ve used for trades have a ton of draft capital.

Final Seahawks draft board: #2.38, #3.76, #3.96, #4.106, #4.121, #6.211, #7.218, #7.242.

#2.38 – Cornerback, San Diego State, Chris Johnson

To my eye; it feels quite obvious that our first pick needs to be a corner. We’re currently set up to lose two starting corners in free agency (ideally, we re-up one of them and draft one), and it’s not a good draft for corners. Need meets depth (or lack thereof).

Chris Johnson just continues to be the guy in this class that has a really high floor. Feels like a Mike Macdonald guy. Listed 6’0″/195lbs.

#3.76 – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

I’m not totally sure about this pick. Macdonald and staff might be all-in on Jalen Sundell. Or maybe there’s a sneaky chance that Seattle gets involved in the Tyler Linderbaum free agency. I just need to see Schneider correct his bias against centers, which is so fucking weird in the first place.

Slaughter has been my guy since early in the 2024 college season, and I love that he is still holding value in the third round.

#3.96 – Wide receiver, UConn, Skyler Bell

Receiver is an interesting position for Seattle this offseason. Their only trade-deadline deal was for a WR, who will immediately become a free agent. Tory Horton has predominantly been an afterthought after spending most of his rookie year on the injured list, something I was always concerned about based on his college career. Cooper Kupp is aging. Dareke Young is a free agent, and I let him walk. Bobo has seen fewer and fewer touches each year, and ended 2025 with only two catches.

Obviously, we don’t need a #1 WR, but there’s a strong argument that we need a legit #2. I don’t know if the current model of JSN dominating target share to the 2025 degree is sustainable. Kupp was Darnold’s #3 in receptions behind TE Barner. Then we see two RB in 4th-5th. This is also the kind of pick that you maybe make a year early, give him 50 catches in year one, and then in 2027, maybe he pops off as the roster changes and he gets more opportunities.

Bell has good size, and a really well-rounded skillset. I like his ability to win in the air. I like his Staten Island swagger. I really want him to continue wearing his #1 jersey from college. He calls himself “Uno” and we could have all kinds of fun with that.

#4.106 – Linebacker, Texas Tech, Jacob Rodriguez

I don’t think Seattle needs an early pick on a linebacker. I think we’re pretty well set next year with All-pro Ernest Jones, and Drake Thomas getting starter reps. But, arguably, we didn’t need a safety when we drafted Nick Emmanwori when we did in 2025. Anyways, if Rodriquez is still on the board this late we run to the podium for him. He immediately deepens our bench and gives us our future replacement for Jones as the MIKE starter in a couple years. It seems that Macdonald likes to kind of take his time installing his defense specifically in his green dot linebacker, so this gives us a great, low-pressure draft cost to take our time with our QB of the defense.

#4.121 – Edge Rusher, Western Michigan, Nadame Tucker

I kind of only see two things Seattle might spend their first pick on: corner or edge. I went with corner because the draft has few of those, while it feels very strong on a certain type of edge. I think we can play more into the depth of edge and wait for one. Especially since he will only be needed to “replace” the snaps of Boye Mafe. He can be a rotational player with a hope for upside.

I’ve narrowed my interest down to Tucker. I think he has more passrush talent to him than most in this draft range. I’m self-aware that Tucker may not be the right TYPE of edge player that Macdonald prefers. I lowkey think a guy named Michael Heldman from Central Michigan might be more of Macdonald’s vibe, but currently Heldman might be able to come to Seattle in rookie free agency.

#6.211 – Guard, Iowa, Beau Stephens

It still seems strange the way this front office and coaching staff has basically deferred the right guard job to Anthony Bradford. Will they continue to do so another year? It feels like a draft where there will be some late value on OL. We took a couple stabs at this idea in 2025 with Bryce Cabeldue and Mason Richman. Both have remained on the roster, while ultimately not overtaking Bradford.

Stephens comes from the same Iowa scheme that Richman came from, but is a much more accomplished player. He’s kind of the sneaky third-best known name from that Hawkeye OL behind center Logan Jones and right tackle Gennings Dunker.

We will be asking Stephens to flip from left guard at Iowa to right guard in Seattle.

#7.218 – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton

Much like most of this mock, for this draft, for this offseason; the goal might only need to be to replace role player with role player. In this case, we need a replacement for Coby Bryant. Singleton is a favorite of mine going back to the 2024 season. He’s a very high-floor, strong fundamental player. I love adding him to the DB room and letting him build from special teams and we go from there.

#7.242 – Tackle, Washington, Carver Willis

In the NIL era…and specifically in the UW/Fisch era…I have grown disenchanted with watching my beloved Huskies. I find it really difficult to connect with these random rosters of brand new transfer players every year. I don’t know who they are, where they come from, when they’re going to leave UW for another school.

In that spirit, I had not had a targeted viewing of LT Carver Willis until he was recently added to the Senior Bowl roster. After playing RT in 2024 for KState, Willis was the Husky LT this year. Listed 6’5″/312lbs, with sneaky athleticism on tape; Willis will slot into the backup OT role currently occupied by Josh Jones.

Seahawks draft targets: Running back

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I had planned to make these tiered draft pieces by position group for most positions, but I’ve been slacking through the holidays. Today I’m back on my bullshit and looking at running backs. Seahawks are currently looking at a free agency period where Kenneth Walker is at the end of his contract and unrestricted, and George Holani will be an exclusive rights free agent. It remains to be seen if they will pay him. The team HAS made in-season contract extensions this year with Charles Cross, Eric Saubert, Abe Lucas. If both team and player were eager for a reunion; we would have likely seen the extension.

I’m not convinced the Seahawks want him back. Certainly not on a veteran deal with Walker being paid above his current rookie scale. I suspect Mike Macdonald is looking for a different type of runner.

With Seahawks limited 2026 draft capital; it will be tough to project them using one of their four current picks on a RB. But, as you’ll soon see, I think this might be a draft cycle that you can prioritize RB in rookie free agency. John Schneider and his staff seemed to go pretty aggressive in the 2025 UDFA phase where they acquired guys like Jared Ivey, Amari Kight, Connor O’toole, Nick Kallerup.

This leads us to a refresher on the structure of these pieces on the tiers of the 2026 Draft. Basically, I’m looking for the best player from three tiers of investment: high, mid, low cost. For the Edge Rushers, I called high cost the 1st to 2nd round. Running back typically carries lower positional value, and this year there aren’t likely more than one name that will be picked in the 1st round. So I’m calling high cost for RB; 2nd to 3rd round. Mid = 4th to 7th. And I’m calling low for RB the entirety of rookie free agency.

High round:

Not only do I not really see a running back I would imagine Seattle would draft in the first round; I kinda don’t see anyone they would take in the first three rounds. I like Jonah Coleman very much, but in my analytics study of the RB class; Coleman didn’t really ping.

Emmett Johnson from Nebraska is ranked #84 on the big board, and hit on a few of my metrics, but failed on others. The guy is crazy elusive, but didn’t score highly on running after contact and a couple others.

The highest ranked RB that did ping was Penn State’s Kaytron “Fatman” Allen from Penn State. Listed 5’11″/219lbs, Allen has 1300 rushing yards this year with 15 TD’s. Consensus big board has Allen as the #124 player in the class, which actually lands mid-4th round. Until we get testing data at the Combine; I suspect Allen might test on the slower side.

Mid round:

I’m honestly fudging things a bit to get this mid-tier in here. For whatever reason; the media has a dogshit perception of this RB class. Miami RB Mark Fletcher, the guy who has basically been carrying the Miami offense in the college playoffs, is not ranked draftable. He is a Junior that, due to Miami’s playoff run, has not announced his draft intention. But even if you look at his 2027 draft value it comes in as UDFA.

Fletcher is listed at 6’2″/225lbs and rushed for 1080 yards and 10 TD this year after missing two games near the middle of the season. Up until recently, I was more or less assuming Macdonald likes a RB that resembles something he worked alongside and had to defend in Baltimore where guys like Kenyan Drake and Gus Edwards were bigger backs getting the bulk of the carries.

But recently Seattle has been adding guys like Velus Jones (6’0″/204lbs), Myles Gaskin (5’10″/200lbs), Kenny Mcintosh (6’0″/204lbs) to various parts of the roster, as well as having some rumored interest in Devon Achane (5’9″/191lbs) at the recent trade deadline. It’s a position group without total clarity of where Macdonald’s true vision lies because he has never, really, had to acquire an RB1 or RB2 since he’s been here. The only RB we’ve seen John and Mike draft since Mike arrived was 2025 when they picked Damien Martinez in the 7th round. Martinez was 6’0″/217lbs, but he was shortlived for the roster; and his “replacements” were primarily the smaller backs I just mentioned.

I am moving forward with my projections based on my own speculation of what I THINK would work best in this offense. I think Fletcher ticks a lot of the boxes.

Low round (UDFA):

This is where things really popped for my research, which means you probably don’t NEED to draft a RB. I got multiple guys that came up really interesting and the media has no clue.

Kaelon Black & Roman Hemby – The two guys sharing carries in the same Indiana backfield both scored very similarly in my study. Black is listed 5’10″/211lbs and rushed for 898 yards and 8 TD, while Hemby is listed 6’0″/210lbs and rushed for 1007 yards and 7 TD. Hemby has a little better standing nationally for draft projection as a guy that is barely outside the range of top 256 players on the board.

Hemby is possibly a tougher runner, while Black is a bit more explosive. Black is a better pass-blocker, while Hemby is a better pass-catcher. Two really intriguing players with great intangibles.

Kejon Owens – Owens is a 5’11″/210lb back coming out of Florida International who ran for 1300 yards and 11 TD’s, with bigtime explosive plays on tape. He reminds me a bit of Ken Walker.

Dontae Mcmillan – Listed 5’10″/203lbs, Mcmillan played at Eastern Michigan but he’s actually from Seattle. He has very good explosive numbers, but on tape I fear he might test a little slow in the forty. He ran for 1000 yards this year, but only 4 TD. I don’t know that Mcmillan would be my #1 RB I’d sign in UDFA, but as a Seattle guy; I think if you offer him a deal; he’ll take it.

Robert Henry – Listed 5’9″/205lbs, Henry ran for 1045 yards on only 151 carries, and added 9 TD. In spite of not being the biggest back, Henry posted some of the best scores on running after contact.

I think the Seahawks should punt on RB in the actual draft, and then offer guaranteed money to two RB in the rookie free agency period. If they can swing it; one of the Indiana guys and Kejon Owens would be very interesting.

2025: Year in Movies

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

For the last few years I’ve been spending a decent amount of time planning and tracking my new movie release viewing. I have a running list all year of upcoming movies that I hear/read about that have interest to me, or that have awards buzz, or both. I track them before I see them with theater and streaming release dates, and rank them after they come out with both a national scoring system as well as my personal rankings.

So today I get to reveal my final thoughts. This is not a fully comprehensive listing. I still have roughly 30 movies on my list that I have not seen, but about 80 that I have. Some I’m simply not interested in seeing, ever. Some I would watch if they were free on a streamer, but don’t want to pay to rent. Some have just not been out very long, and I haven’t had a chance to see yet.

My taste in movies kind of mirrors what my taste in music used to be when I worked in radio years ago…I want high art(ists) that are making pop hits. I want Radiohead making “Creep” or “Fake Plastic Trees” not Radiohead making “Weird Fishes”. My radio mentor used to call me “Mr Mersh”…meaning “commercial”. In movies…I’m primarily interested in Oscar-caliber movies, but the ones that can do a decent box office and will become those endlessly rewatchable movies 5-10 years from now. I don’t have much interest in 90% of Marvel movies, nor most IP/franchise chains. But I’m equally likely to think some of the critical darling, cinephile favorite films are godawful boring. I found both Top Gun Maverick and The Brutalist were dogshit films in the last couple years.

I’m looking for the sweet spot between art and populism. Sometimes that isn’t obvious in the moment…sometimes a movie is just hard to market, and it will take a few years for things to be found by people. Maybe this list can help do that for those that read it.

Before getting to the positive of this year…let me get a few rants out of the way.

“It Was Just an Accident” – what are we doing here? After seeing this movie; I think the world is patronizing the shit out of this. It’s an Iranian movie with an interesting backstory in how it was shot in secret, stealing shots on location because of inherent governmental oppression. But this movie, if made in America, is an absolutely mediocre movie. Remember the movie “Two Days in the Valley” that came out sometime after “Pulp Fiction” and was kind of biting themes and non-linear storytelling from Pulp, but doing it in a totally average way. “It Was Just an Accident” is like that. There is no grounding in human motivation from any of the characters. They float from mood to mood from scene to scene simply to get from plot beat A to plot beat B. There is no through logic. The hype around this movie is entirely misgiven. Actually, you know what would be sort of a comparable quality of an American movie from this year? “The Long Walk”. Both are primarily movies about people talking while on a long journey with subplot of an impending sense of murder hovering around every action. Cool, but “The Long Walk” is not an Oscar contender.

“28 Years Later” – I really wanted to like this movie. I liked the original “28 Days Later”. I like much of director Danny Boyle and screenwriter Alex Garland’s work. But this movie really felt like an incomplete thought. And knowing that a quick-turnaround sequel, “Bone Temple” was coming directly on its heels kind of supports that for me.

“Wicked 2” & “Avatar 3” – I have not seen either of these and am not planning on seeing them with any urgency after being disappointed with the prequels to each. “Wicked” is the kind of movie musical I loathe, and James Cameron…getting a fucking editor.

Would see but haven’t had the chance: “The Secret Agent”, “No Other Choice”, “Rental Family”, “Song Sung Blue”, “Testament of Ann Lee”. I’m sure I end up seeing something from this list probably within days of publishing this article, but as of now I have not.

Honorable Mentions:

“Ballad of Wallis Island” – What a charming movie. I’m generally pretty allergic to movie musicals because I need more of them to work like this, where the characters are musicians, performing the songs they wrote. I’m also a huge fan recently of movies that subvert expectations. I’m already instinctively looking for where a plot is going, so when filmmakers can surprise me; I’m so pleased.

“Wake Up Dead Man” – the third in the detective series from writer/director Rian Johnson and star Daniel Craig; I said immediately after finishing this one that I think this might be my favorite of the three. Is there some underlying message about the role of religion in modern American culture? Maybe. But I just found the mystery entertaining and surprising.

“Roofman” – every once in a while Channing Tatum sort of steps into one. I felt similarly about this movie and Tatum’s 2017 movie “Logan Lucky”. It’s light, it’s funny, it’s got sneaky heart, and I enjoy seeing the machinations of a heist/crime come together.

“The Friend” – what an interesting, unexpected little film about Naomi Watts’ character taking on an adopted Great Dane dog after a friend passes away. Tonally, it kind of reminded me of “Lars and the Real Girl”, if you know that movie.

“Eddington” – this was a year of very strange, perhaps experimental, movies coming out. Many of them were very much of this time in recent history, building on themes of what has become life in the 2020’s. “Eddington” felt like the one that got the least respect, perhaps because it was the one that walks the line closest between reality and farce and the way our reality has become such a farce. I felt like the distance between this movie and “One Battle After Another” was not that huge.

“Weapons” – a very entertaining movie, but ultimately I had too big of a problem with an unresolved plot hole to put it in my top 10. First 90 minutes I really enjoyed; I just wish it had a more complete ending.

“40 Acres” – to me, this was sort of the better version of the post-apocalyptic, family in danger from an encroaching horde, movie that people are crediting “28 Years Later” with being. Super entertaining.

“Sketch” – kind of a dark, magical kids movie, but for kids over a certain age that won’t be too scared of some of the imagery. Cool, original concept with some very modern themes. People need to find this movie.

“Companion” – I’m not sure what to note about this movie that is sort of a given from the trailer, and what might be bordering on spoiler, but this is a pretty damn entertaining mix of movies like “Ex Machina” and “Strange Darling”.

My Top 10 Movies of 2025:

#10 – “Legend of Ochi”. This is a highly stylized, imaginative fable of an older kids movie that I really enjoyed. The world-building was so fully-formed and beautiful that it reminded me of a movie called “Vesper” from a few years ago. Vesper was more of a sci-fi story, while Ochi is like historical Romanian tall tale, but I really liked spending time in both worlds. Thematically, it may be a little derivative of, like, “E.T.” but instead of a little boy protagonist; here we have a little girl, and instead of alien we have a sort of mythical, baboon creature. A really gorgeous, well-executed film.

#9 – “Bugonia”. Historically, I have not been much of a fan of Yorgos Lanthimos. I find his work absurdist for the sake of absurdity most of the time. But in “Bugonia”, I find that he has constructed a movie that has so much grounding in real people having real conversations with (ironically) real human motivations, with the caveat that one of the lead characters happens to be himself kind of an absurd personality, but one that absolutely exists in the world today, that I found the overall impact of the movie and its two lead actors to be really impressive.

#8 – “Train Dreams”. I had a bit of mixed emotions about “Train Dreams” because it is SOOO blatantly ripping off Terrence Malick in its use of nature shots and voiceover, but at the same time…this is the best Terrence Malick movie since “Thin Red Line”. I constantly wish Malick would hire a writer, have an actual script, and recapture that magic again, so this was ultimately a welcome homage. There are a number of visually stunning movies this year, but “Train Dreams” is certainly at the top of that list. The plot is sort of inconsequential…this is just a beautiful, lyrical ode to the history of the American Northwest with meticulous attention to the details of the period.

#7 – “Frankenstein”. This movie was everything I wanted it to be. The monster design was fantastic. The production design was exceptional. It was unique in the history of re-tellings of Frankenstein, while also being familiar. In a year of some pretty incredible, original stories; it’s a mild negative on my list that this movie is such a well-known entity, but it was still very enjoyable.

#6 – “Sinners”. It’s a little funny that back-to-back entries on my list fall to a Frankenstein monster and a vampire, but here we are. “Sinners” lands the higher of the two due to its original story. And, like “Ballad of Wallis Island”, I love that Sinners incorporates music in a naturalistic way. And what music it is.

In a lot of movie descriptions; you can kind of encapsulate them into, “it’s like ‘Rounders’ meets ‘Field of Dreams'”, or whatever the movies are. In a lot of cases you can nail down two primary influences. In “Sinners”; I felt like there were six or seven influences that Ryan Coogler was melding together. This was from Tarantino…this was from Nolan…etc. And there were probably many I didn’t even clock. I like that about it. I like most things about it. But can we stop doing post-credit scenes? I missed that whole thing when I saw it in the theater, and didn’t see it until a couple weeks ago watching it second time at home.

#5 – “Warfare”. This was THEE most intense experience I had watching a movie this year. I love what Alex Garland, and his co-director Ray Mendoza, have crafted here in terms of re-creating what it is truly like in a modern theater of war. The language, the actions, the protocols, the training, the camaraderie, the bravery. This movie created an experience within my body that I’ve rarely, if ever, experienced from a movie. It was like an induced panic attack. And it does it for basically the entire 90 minutes of runtime. It is such a fully-engrossing portrait and experience. I feel like, in so many years; this might have been my #1 film of the year.

#4 – “Marty Supreme”. If there was any question who the auteur half of the Safdie brother filmmaking dynamic was; I think we have a clear answer from recent releases of Benny Safdie’s MMA biopic “The Smashing Machine” and Josh Safdie’s table tennis pseudo biopic “Marty Supreme”. Benny made pure action and violence seem kinda boring while Josh made ping pong so fucking entertaining.

This is a GREAT movie. I kind of have no notes. The movie takes place in part or in whole in roughly 1952. The music is coming straight out of 1982. Shouldn’t work, but it does. The cast includes two generations of nepo babies, a hip hop star, and a tech CEO turned TV host. Chalamet is still doing it. If “Complete Unknown” was Chalamet’s symbolic parallel to Dicaprio’s “The Aviator”…”Marty Supreme” is his “Catch Me if You Can”. And it all works. This is like Safdie took 90% of the pace and anxiety of “Uncut Gems” and dialed it back to splash in about 5% more heart and 5% more Hollywood ending, and those edits make this so much more of a pleasing, rewatchable movie. And I loved “Uncut Gems”, but that shit is hard to watch.

#3 – “Sentimental Value”. I actually had this and “Marty Supreme” reversed right up until typing “#4” moments ago. I saw “Marty Supreme” on Christmas Eve, and then I watched “Sentimental Value” for the second time two nights ago, and maybe it’s recency bias, but I think on second viewing the impact of the emotional wallop of SV pushed it ahead of the pure entertainment of MS, for me.

I am not super familiar with writer/director Joachim Trier. I know I tried to watch his 2021 film, also starring SV’s lead Renate Reinsve, “The Worst Person in the World” and I never finished it. Didn’t enjoy it. If I’m being honest I generally have trouble with foreign language films, and “Sentimental Value” is probably 80% in Norwegian. I find the lack of understanding a language detracts from my ability to recognize the sincerity of the acting and line deliveries etc. I had no such problem with this movie. In fact, whatever awards shows that give a group award for best ensemble acting; I kinda think “Sentimental Value” should win. Stellan Skarsgard is almost always great, but is perhaps at his career best in this. Reinsve is extraordinary doing the kind of quiet, understated acting that is sometimes less recognized than something big and show-y. But the revelation of the film for me was the discovery of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas as the sister to Reinsve and daughter to Skarsgard. Spellbinding work. I would give her the best supporting actress Oscar, but it probably goes to Amy Madigan.

#2 – “One Battle After Another”. I’m probably not a true Paul Thomas Anderson loyalist. I always try his movies, but I’m a strong fan of his movies only probably 50% of the time. I find I enjoy his movies set in present day more than something of a period piece. I don’t want PTA to write classical music…I want him to write fucking punk rock. “One Battle” is punk AF. This might be my new favorite film in the PTA catalogue.

I remember a few years ago, John Krasinski said that he made the movie “A Quiet Place” as a sort of love-letter to his daughters. This seems kind of an odd thought about, essentially, an alien invasion horror movie, but I lowkey wonder if this isn’t also a more personal movie expression for PTA than it might seem at first blush. I wonder if this isn’t also a love-letter from Anderson to his four kids (three of which are daughters) with Maya Rudolph.

“One Battle” kind of has a little bit of everything. There’s high action. There’s high comedy. There’s high suspense. There’s a high protagonist. There’s realism. There’s surrealism. There’s a pretty sentimental finale. There’s incredible performances from every star. There’s also incredible performances from people I’ve never heard of, or that have never even acted before, like the military interrogator or the native American bounty hunter.

I like this movie so much. I just liked one a bit better.

#1 – “Hamnet”. This. Movie. Fucked. Me. Up. The race for best picture this year sort of feels like a battle between divine masculine and divine feminine. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is sooo masculine with all of its action and bombast…even the female characters are pretty macho. Chloe Zhao’s film is sooo feminine with all of its emotion and tenderness…even the male characters are pretty sensitive. Thinking about the contrast of these two films; I also thought of the films of Christopher Nolan. “One Battle” is “The Dark Knight”…”Hamnet” is “Interstellar”. I love both movies, but if put to the question; my favorite Nolan film is “Interstellar”. But the “Dark Knight” fucking slaps.

It’s become more and more common in recent years that movie fans use movie language like “set pieces” when they talk about movies. The standard usage is talking about ACTION set pieces like the oil well on fire in “There Will Be Blood”. I feel like “Hamnet” has these really powerful EMOTION set pieces running throughout the movie.

There’s Paul Mescal’s impassioned story he tells to woo Jesse Buckley’s Agnes at the beginning. There’s Mescal playing with his young son, Hamnet, and asking him if he will be brave. There’s Buckley acting the shit out of one of the all-time great woman-in-labor scenes ever. And then Buckley watching the debut performance of “Hamlet”. Oof. Good luck.

This movie is a singular movement. The visuals, the music, the story, the performances…they are all stunning. I can’t wait to see it again. I can’t wait to see other people see it for the first time.

I already know I’m in the minority in my rankings. “One Battle” is literally an example of what I described earlier as the kind of movies I’m looking for. It finished about #30 in 2025 box office with $71million. “Hamnet” isn’t even top 100 and has made under $11mill to date. But sometimes a “Shawshank Redemption” only makes $16mill in the theaters, but its true legacy is how the movie grows across its entire life. I think “Hamnet” has a chance to be really impactful in 5, 10, 20, 50 years.

Seahawks draft targets: Edge Rusher

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’ve been locating, cataloging, documenting various aspects of this draft cycle; it started to occur to me there might be a post, or series of posts, illustrating various tiers of draft capital investment. In a big-picture view, this can help to establish positional priorities, and it may also lock in the tiers of talent across all positions that can help evolve a general draft strategy of when to focus your draft picks vs when to bail from draft ranges.

The first position group I’ve decided to take a closer look at is one that draft media has long said is a strength of this year: the Edge rushers. As I dug into the position in as comprehensive a manner as I could; I discovered multiple new names to add to my board, which I think supports the idea that this is a deep group.

Edge also feels particularly relevant to the Seahawks due to the news/rumors that came out during the trade deadline build-up where-in impending free agent Edge Boye Mafe was being floated as a trade away candidate. Seattle may be anticipating a good Edge draft and willing to let Mafe walk as a free agent for a potential compensatory draftpick, and replace Mafe with youth.

The format for these pieces, which I’m currently planning to do for all position groups, will be to identify a candidate(s) at a high price point (1st-2nd round), a mid price point (3rd-5th round), and a low price point (6th round-UDFA). These candidates will be weighted as much to what I believe to be current Seahawk traits under John Schneider as the buyer for a Mike Macdonald menu.

High round:

I did some pretty intensive research into what I think Macdonald likes in his Edge players. I tried to be pretty objective to the traits I think he likes, I allowed each player to have one category where they fell below standard, but they could not have two strikes against, and this led to some interesting eliminations, and certainly to some VERY interesting additions.

After going through multiple levels of eliminations; I only came away with one name still in consideration that currently has projection in the top 64 picks/top two rounds: Missouri Edge Zion Young. It should be noted there are five names that survived my process, and Zion finished fifth of five of those names.

Young has 15.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 11 hurries in 11 games so far this year, and he has projection in roughly the middle of the second round.

Mid round:

Again, I only came away with one player in this range: Miami Edge Akheem Mesidor. Mesidor had some interesting pings in studying the group. He has posted 12.0 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 4 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in 10 games. His consensus draft ranking puts him in the third round. I think this is an interesting idea. A trench player from a blue chip program is never far from Schneider’s heart.

Low round:

This is where I felt things got really interesting. This is where I came away with three names that survived all rounds of elimination without accruing two strikes. All three of these guys currently are projecting as undrafted free agent types. Some of that will change with decent athletic testing at the Combine. Some of that will change simply because the media is less aware of these guys than NFL teams actually are.

#1 – From SMU we have Edge Cameron Robertson, who has missed three games this year, but was back in the lineup for SMU’s most-recent game vs Louisville on November 22nd. In the eight games Robertson has played, he has posted 9.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 3 hurries.

#2 – From Central Michigan, we have Edge Michael Heldman. There’s something about the recent chatter about the Seahawks acquiring Maxx Crosby, a highly productive college player that came from Eastern Michigan and was drafted in the 4th round, that makes me intrigued with Heldman and the next guy I will talk about. Heldman has recorded 13.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 9 hurries in eleven games this year.

(Just for reference…Crosby in his draft year posted 19.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 7 hurries in twelve games.)

#3 – From Western Michigan we have Edge Nadame Tucker. Tucker was part of my recent mock draft that was primarily tape-based, and he looks even more intriguing after seeing him come out as still highly relevant in this more analytics-based study. He has 18.0 TFL, 12.0 sacks, 12 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in twelve games. He did come up short in one of my metrics, but in every other category; he really looked like a potential fit for Macdonald.

This is a very exciting player that draft media is not caught up on…yet.

I did a separate piece of analysis this week just trying to gauge Seattle’s interest in various position groups, and it really did make it seem they may be putting emphasis on Edge rusher(s). But then the question becomes: “does emphasis mean chronological priority?” Does needing an Edge rusher on your roster mean you force a pick on one in a draft that may see some quality guys fall further down due to depth of the class? Now, I’m not saying they wait until rookie free agency to get one of the three guys I highlighted as currently projected there…I suspect that will change by April. But it might mean you can get one on day three of the draft (like Crosby).

My priority list currently goes: Tucker, Heldman, Mesidor. In that order.

Mariners offseason plan

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been spending some time this weekend thinking about what the Mariners could do this offseason, after signing Josh Naylor, to improve upon their 2025 season. What combination best fills the holes of free agency while staying within the structure of budget that is certainly at play from ownership?

This is what I came up with.

I’m sure this won’t be the most popular structure, and I’m fairly certain the front office has a plan that will be perceived more popular, but this is my pretty objective thought.

#1 – Sign one of the posted Japanese players.

It’s been a minute since Seattle has had a substantial Japanese presence on the roster, but I think there is value, both on the field and off, to be found there.

I’ve targeted 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto as the Japanese signing I would pursue. Yes, he is the older of the two big bats, but the power is not that much less, and I think the pitch recognition is so much better and should travel. I think many people think Okamoto is JUST a first baseman, but I like his tape at third, where he won Gold Gloves as recently as 2022, I believe, to be adequate to replace Eugenio Saurez.

As far as Geno…it’s hard to say goodbye to him. I think he brought an emotional character to the clubhouse that was important in both of his stints here. If Geno would be willing to take the same money as I’m proposing Kazuma takes; I would probably just keep the continuity with Geno.

Speaking of the contract…most industry writers project Okamoto gets 3-4 years, and then it’s a pretty wide range of money from, like, $12 to $16mill AAV. I’ve budgeted him at three years, $40.5 million, or $13.5mill AAV.

#2 – Trader Jerry season.

We may NEED to see some trades this winter. Having spent on Naylor, and with the club expected to spend decently on someone else in free agency, we’re going to need to augment the roster with some younger, cheaper, but still MLB-proven, players. We have the farm system that should support making some of these moves.

Trade #1: In my model, I found that if Jorge Polanco gets the contract he’s projected to get; it will be one of the better values in all of MLB. If Seattle does go that route…hey, cool. It’s probably not a bad move. But I, personally, just worry about extending too many of these players that are aging out of their prime.

So, my first trade would be to send the #75 prospect in all of MLB, and the #7 prospect on the M’s top 30, OF Jonny Farmelo, plus our #18 prospect, RHP Michael Morales, to the St Louis Cardinals for IF/OF Brendan Donavan.

The Cardinals have the #5 prospect in all of baseball, JJ Weatherholt, set to debut in 2026, so they’re going to need a position for him to play, and so maybe they make Donovan available.

Donovan has position flexibility, but he spent 82 of his 97 starts last year at second base, and that will be where I pencil him in for Seattle in 2026.

In terms of the return going to the Cards…honestly, this is my most important trade, so I give them their first choice of any of our #6-#8 prospects, Michael Arroyo, Farmelo, or Jurrangelo Cijntje. But when I looked at their farm system; it just felt like they could use outfield help more than 2B or pitching.

Donovan is an Arbitration-2 player about to turn 29 in January, with club control through 2027, and he should cost roughly $5.75mill this year. Last year he hit .287/.353/.775 with 10 HR, 50 RBI in 118 games.

Trade #2: In order to replace some of the power lost by Polanco not being re-signed; I’m going to try to add some in the outfield. I am sending the Detroit Tigers #8 prospect SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje plus OF/IF Luke Raley in order to acquire OF Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter destroyed Seattle in the postseason, so Mariner fans may have some mixed emotions about this one, but Carpenter is a 28 y/o who hit 26 HR in 130 games last year, with a slash line of .252/.291/.788, but a career OBP of .322, so we’re gonna try to straighten some of that back out.

Raley ends up the short straw between he and Dom Canzone in terms of who we would prefer to retain as a bench lefty outfielder. His ability to backup 1B is also now covered by Okamoto. There just really isn’t space for him, and he’s also the more expensive of he and Canzone, as he was projected to make $1.75mill next year. That’s not nothing when we’re pushing as hard as we can up against the “salary cap”.

Carpenter has three years of club control remaining, and he should cost about $3.5mill this year depending on arbitration. He may end up in true platoon with Victor Robles in right field, as Carpenter hit righties at a .257 clip while Robles hit .213 against them, and then Robles hit lefties .289 while Carpenter hit .217 off them.

I’m sure a lot of fans, and probably the front office, bristle at the idea of trading away Cijntje, but we’re holding onto Ryan Sloan and 2025 first rounder Kade Anderson, who probably fit better in the timeline of our pitching development/cost progression anyways. I felt like we NEEDED to part with someone quality to get an MLB player with “now” ability and cheap club control. That looked like Cijntje.

Trade #3: I’ve got a couple of smaller trades that fans may not immediately recognize, but trust me…I didn’t so much fucking homework on these. I’m sending 2B Cole Young to the Kansas City Royals for righthanded reliever Lucas Erceg.

Erceg kind of ends up a cap casualty for the Royals who have probably a tighter budget than Seattle, and will have multiple arbitration raises to work through. Erceg is a bit older as he will turn 31 early in the 2026 season, but he has club control through 2029, and should cost about $2.00mill this year. It’s not that different from when Seattle got ahold of Paul Sewald in his age 31 season.

Erceg has been a very solid reliever for the last two years between Oakland and Kansas City posting sub-4.00 ERA’s including a 2.64 mark last year. His strikeouts were down a bit in 2025, but his velo and pitch metrics are still very strong.

Young becomes somewhat expendable with Donovan acquired and Colt Emerson nipping at his heels in AAA already. Emerson may, eventually, be the replacement for JP Crawford at SS in 2027, but he probably has to start somewhere else when he debuts in 2026. In a scenario where Emerson plays 2B; Donovan could play LF with Randy Arozarena benched vs RHP. The Royals like this trade as they can either make Jonathan India available in trade immediately, or slot Young in as his replacement in 2027 and give him another year to develop.

Trade #4: This is the smallest, but perhaps sneakiest, trade of all. I’m sending #12 prospect OF Tai Peete to the San Francisco Giants for lefthanded reliever Erik Miller.

Miller is a big boy at 6’5″/268lbs and he posted a 1.50 ERA, but pedestrian 6.0 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 numbers across 36 appearances and 30.0 innings for the Giants in 2025. His season ended early when he was placed on the IL in early July with elbow soreness from which he never came back. Obviously, this trade would be contingent on a physical, but I like the “buy-low” nature here in order to acquire a lefty that touches 99mph with run. And he’s only 28 in February with club control through 2029 and should only cost $820k this year.

Even if the injury is still not fully resolved; there is enough meat on the bone that this could be a useful trade across the life of the deal. This could end up sort of resembling when Seattle acquired Andres Munoz while he was in injury recovery for the Padres. We got Munoz on August 30, 2020 after he didn’t appear at all for SD that season, and he didn’t pitch for Seattle until October 3rd, 2021.

After all of these transactions, the Mariner rotation remains fully intact. The defense should be better with Donovan > Polanco, and potentially Ben Williamson starting at 3B with Okamoto at DH. Power rates may be down a bit, but contact rates should be better (really, we are mistakenly taking credit for Saurez’ 49 homeruns, when in fact he only hit 13 for SEA). The farm system maintained our top 6 prospects, along with keeping guys like SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, OF Yorger Bautista, SS Nick Becker from the top 15. And we didn’t blow our remaining (expected) $23mill budget surplus on one guy. We’ve addressed 2B, 3B, OF, RHP, and LHP. We’ve got relatively younger without becoming inexperienced, and we’ve left room for minor league promotions.

New Roster:

C- Raleigh, Ford
1B- Naylor, Okamoto
2B- Donovan, Rivas
SS- Crawford, Rivas
3B- Williamson, Okamoto
LF- Arozarena, Donovan, Canzone
CF- Rodriguez, Robles
RF- Carpenter, Robles, Canzone
DH- Okamoto, Carpenter

SP1- Woo
SP2- Gilbert
SP3- Kirby
SP4- Castillo
SP5- Miller

CL- Munoz
RHRP- Brash, Bazardo, Erceg, Hoppe
LHRP- Speier, Miller, Ortiz