Seahawks pre-Combine mock

/ seattleseamocks / Leave a comment

By Jared Stanger

The 2026 NFL Combine hits next week with the player arrivals starting on Sunday, and the first day of on-field testing and workouts coming on Thursday. I messed around a bit with some online mock draft simulators this morning just to kind of calibrate where player projection is pre-combine, and we’ll have this document to compare to after players get the the SPARQ/RAS bump.

The first thing we have to address is the draft capital. Currently, the Seahawks sit at only four draftpicks. Those fall at roughly #1.32, #2.64, #3.96, and #6.212. This draft is commonly thought of as not being particularly strong in talent, and it’s entirely plausible that John Schneider has seen this drop in talent coming, and he traded picks away to make better use of the resource. It could also be possible that we haven’t seen the entirety of the plan, and that Schneider sensed a late first round draftpick was coming in a draft that has maybe only 15-16 true first round grades, and that he would inevitably be trading back our first pick.

I’m kind of counting on the latter, so I made multiple trades right out of the shoot. Here is what that ended up looking like:

The other thing I’ve been thinking about as the Super Bowl champs, on a team that has used former rookie free agents like Drake Thomas, Jalen Sundell, Josh Jobe, Ty Okada in major roles this season…is Schneider thinking he could use the clout the Seahawks currently have to recruit hard in UDFA rather than using many day three draftpicks??

I’m sure they will do that, but it’s less clear how much useful talent will still be around after the draft. Like, most of the NFL-caliber talent is going to find their way into the 256 draftpicks. So I figured I would sneak in a headstart on rookie free agency with a number of seventh round picks.

So, let’s get to it.

#2.38 – Cornerback, San Diego State, Chris Johnson

I’ve seen/heard the recent discourse that this is a decent corner class. Horseshit. Certainly, I don’t think there are many guys that pass the Schneider/Macdonald “Smart, Tough, Reliable” standard that has marked our draft success(es) over the last four drafts. I think we need to find that guy, and take him early. Chris Johnson ticks so many of the boxes we’re looking for. He’s a smart dude, he’s got great 2025 production, and I think his tape is so consistent. With the Seahawks needing to replace (or re-sign one, and draft one) both Riq Woolen and Josh Jobe; this is a demand meets lack of supply move.

#3.67 – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

I, personally, think Center is a bigger need than most people. Yes, Jalen Sundell was a passable starter last year, but Geno Smith was also passable for a time when he was here. And we kind of didn’t recognize/admit at the time that we could upgrade his position until he was gone and Darnold was good for the first two months of the season.

I think this is where Center is at. It’s either we go hard after Tyler Linderbaum in free agency and pay the premium he’ll cost, or we spend a premium pick on the best Center in the draft, and our O-line will be one of the best in the league for the next 3-5 years.

#3.96 – Running back, Arkansas, Mike Washington Jr

Unfortunately, with Ken Walker hitting free agency and Zach Charbonnet coming back from a significant knee injury; we need to backfill the backfield with a pretty decent pick this year. I’m still not totally sure the type of running back that Macdonald wants if given a choice. He sort of arrived in Seattle with our top two backs already in the building, and we haven’t had to draft or sign one since.

Washington is a big back at 6’1″/228lbs, but he reads on film as a pretty fast athlete, as well. I thought he looked really good at the Senior Bowl, so I’d be happy to add him to the RB room.

#4.120 – Edge, Western Michigan, Nadame Tucker

I fully admit that I don’t think Tucker is the type of Edge that Macdonald prefers. He is a smaller, more speed-based rusher. But I think he has some of the most legit passrush chops of all of the DE in this class. And I have a plan to address the edge-setting DE later on.

Boye Mafe is a free agent, and it’s not totally clear if the team will retain Uchenna Nwosu, so it’s possible we will need two Edge replacements.

#4.134 – Linebacker, Oregon, Bryce Boettcher

I think I’ve had linebacker higher in some previous mocks, but it seems like we’re gonna continue to roll with Ernest Jones, Drake Thomas, Tyrice Knight, and I lowkey think there might be some high optimism in the building on practice squad LB Chris Pooh Paul going forward.

But we are set to lose Chazz Surratt to free agency, so we can draft a replacement that can start on special teams, and we develop him to eventually replace Jones in a couple years.

Boettcher is an interesting cat. He is a northwest native coming from Eugene, OR. He was actually drafted in the 13th round of the MLB draft by the Houston Astros in 2024. Last year Bryce totaled 136 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 6 PBU, 1 INT, and 2 FF. And he can even play some goalline fullback.

#5.158 – Wide receiver, Texas Tech, Reggie Virgil

I think our wide receiver room is in pretty good shape. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be getting a new contract soon, I’m sure. Cooper Kupp, Tory Horton, Jake Bobo are all still under contract. We’re probably going to re-sign Rashid Shaheed. Which would mean we’re only losing Dareke Young to free agency. So I don’t think we need a huge investment at the spot. Maybe in 2027 we go back to the well for an early pick at WR.

Virgil was one of the pleasant surprises for me at the Senior Bowl. He measured up at 6’2″/188lbs, and played with good speed, good route-running, and good hands.

#6.212 – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton

Coby Bryant is set to become a free agent, and it’s possible the team extends him, but in case we don’t; I’ve got Singleton as our next safety in waiting. I’ve been tracking Deshon since the 2024 college season. I think he’s a very solid, high-floor player. If he only becomes a special teams ace…it’s fine. I feel comfortable with Julian Love and Ty Okada as our starters.

#7.222 – Defensive Tackle, South Carolina, Nick Barrett

This pick is mostly a flyer for me. We have some aging DT on the roster in Leonard Williams and Jarran Reed, and not a ton of depth unless Ryley Mills plays 2026 more like he played in the Super Bowl than the rest of his 2025 season. I had some DT I was hoping to pull late in the draft, but most had already been picked in the simulator when I got to this spot. I don’t have a compelling story/case for Barrett other than he did tick a couple of production metrics when I studied this college DT class.

#7.226 – Offensive Line, Washington, Carver Willis

The Seahawks are set on the starting OL at both tackle spots, which is where Willis played for UW in 2025. But…Seattle is potentially losing swing OT Josh Jones to free agency, and I also think Willis could compete for the starting RG job (a position he played for KState earlier in his career). There’s also a possibility Willis just replaces someone like Mason Richman or Bryce Cabeldue as bench OL. Hawks did move on quickly from 2024 draftpick Sataoa Laumea, so maybe they just continue to churn OL bodies until they find the right mix.

It won’t surprise me if Willis is one of the big winners at the Combine for OL. I think he looks sneaky athletic on tape.

#7.237 – Defensive End, LSU, Jack Pyburn

My last pick is one of the guys I looked at only recently. I had the idea that, with a strong/deep class of defensive ends, it might be a good idea to double-dip. It also kinda gave me more leeway to draft Nadame Tucker, who might not be the right ‘type’ of edge rusher. I think Pyburn IS the right type of Macdonald edge-setter, and then it’s just a question of whether or not his passrush can pick up with pro coaching and landing in the Macdonald scheme.

Pyburn is listed at 6’4″/264lbs and registered 52 tackles last year (a lot for a DE), but only 5.5 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and 8 hurries. If he only ends up on the practice squad, or even if he doesn’t make the 70-man roster in September, it’s not a big loss.

Final look at the simulator results:

Seahawks playoff pregame mock draft

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re hours away from the Seahawks divisional round playoff game at Lumen Field against our rival 49ers, and I’ve got a new 7-round mock draft for everyone.

A few points of order…at one point a follower raised the question of what happened to the Seahawks’ draftpick they acquired when they traded OT Mike Jerrell to Atlanta. I was like, “oh yeah, what did happen with that?” I finally went back to the news releases from the day of the trade and realized that draftpick was actually a conditional 2027 pick. So it is still in play, just not for this year.

The second point…the Seahawks first round pick. I’ve been advocating that John Schneider could/should trade our first round pick for a veteran player. I think that idea lost it’s plausibility when Seattle secured the playoff first round bye. Which also meant they would draft no higher than #27 overall if they lose today. And that might be #28 at the highest, depending on tie-breakers with Denver.

Optimistically, Seattle might be drafting in the 30’s. I just don’t see NFL teams that might be selling off their blue-chip players on big contracts; would be selling them to a team that is drafting that late in the 1st round. This is why Seattle should have gotten it done at the trade deadline last November…at that time, there was mystery about where their pick would land. Now there is much less mystery, and by the time of the new league year; there will be zero mystery…Seattle’s first rounder is more like a second.

I just don’t think we’re going to be winning any kind of bidding war for Maxx Crosby, or whoever, with our low-value 2026 first round pick. And one can surmise from our roster composition that our 2027 draftpick will be in the 20’s as well.

So……what does one do in a bad draft class, with less than 15 consensus first round grades across the league, and a first round pick that won’t interest teams selling vet talent? We go back to the John Schneider well…trading back.

It’s a very legitimate question on whether John is going to worry much about getting more bites at the apple in the 2026 draft. At the moment, he has put himself in position to make only four picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th rounds. Is that the end game, or has he been planning to augment that somehow between the end of the season and the end of the draft? We can only speculate.

Personally, I look at the Seahawks pending 2026 free agents, and I don’t see the names of the team’s best players running out of contract. It’s a group of, essentially, role players. The biggest name is probably Ken Walker. After K9, the list goes Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, Boye Mafe, Josh Jones, Coby Bryant, Dareke Young. Technically, Rashid Shaheed is also coming up, but I expect they will get him done.

We’re not losing big names, so maybe we don’t need to draft big names. We could, theoretically, plan to draft for the class the year has provided, which has serendipitously lined up perfectly for the free agent class we’re losing. But I think you need more lottery tickets because in a weak draft there is less guarantee that each pick will pay off.

I think we need more picks, not less. Having draft capital allows you to be fluid throughout the draft. It’s much harder to pick select spots to move UP in the draft when you only start with four picks. I will make three trades within the draft.

First…trading back #1.32 to Houston for pick #2.38 + #4.106. Texans currently have nine picks to deal from.

Second…trading back #2.64 to Pittsburgh for picks #3.76 + #4.121 + #6.214. The Steelers currently project to have twelve picks throughout the draft.

Third…traing back #6.214 to the Jets for picks #7.218 + #7.242. The Jets also hold twelve picks going into the draft. All of the teams I’ve used for trades have a ton of draft capital.

Final Seahawks draft board: #2.38, #3.76, #3.96, #4.106, #4.121, #6.211, #7.218, #7.242.

#2.38 – Cornerback, San Diego State, Chris Johnson

To my eye; it feels quite obvious that our first pick needs to be a corner. We’re currently set up to lose two starting corners in free agency (ideally, we re-up one of them and draft one), and it’s not a good draft for corners. Need meets depth (or lack thereof).

Chris Johnson just continues to be the guy in this class that has a really high floor. Feels like a Mike Macdonald guy. Listed 6’0″/195lbs.

#3.76 – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

I’m not totally sure about this pick. Macdonald and staff might be all-in on Jalen Sundell. Or maybe there’s a sneaky chance that Seattle gets involved in the Tyler Linderbaum free agency. I just need to see Schneider correct his bias against centers, which is so fucking weird in the first place.

Slaughter has been my guy since early in the 2024 college season, and I love that he is still holding value in the third round.

#3.96 – Wide receiver, UConn, Skyler Bell

Receiver is an interesting position for Seattle this offseason. Their only trade-deadline deal was for a WR, who will immediately become a free agent. Tory Horton has predominantly been an afterthought after spending most of his rookie year on the injured list, something I was always concerned about based on his college career. Cooper Kupp is aging. Dareke Young is a free agent, and I let him walk. Bobo has seen fewer and fewer touches each year, and ended 2025 with only two catches.

Obviously, we don’t need a #1 WR, but there’s a strong argument that we need a legit #2. I don’t know if the current model of JSN dominating target share to the 2025 degree is sustainable. Kupp was Darnold’s #3 in receptions behind TE Barner. Then we see two RB in 4th-5th. This is also the kind of pick that you maybe make a year early, give him 50 catches in year one, and then in 2027, maybe he pops off as the roster changes and he gets more opportunities.

Bell has good size, and a really well-rounded skillset. I like his ability to win in the air. I like his Staten Island swagger. I really want him to continue wearing his #1 jersey from college. He calls himself “Uno” and we could have all kinds of fun with that.

#4.106 – Linebacker, Texas Tech, Jacob Rodriguez

I don’t think Seattle needs an early pick on a linebacker. I think we’re pretty well set next year with All-pro Ernest Jones, and Drake Thomas getting starter reps. But, arguably, we didn’t need a safety when we drafted Nick Emmanwori when we did in 2025. Anyways, if Rodriquez is still on the board this late we run to the podium for him. He immediately deepens our bench and gives us our future replacement for Jones as the MIKE starter in a couple years. It seems that Macdonald likes to kind of take his time installing his defense specifically in his green dot linebacker, so this gives us a great, low-pressure draft cost to take our time with our QB of the defense.

#4.121 – Edge Rusher, Western Michigan, Nadame Tucker

I kind of only see two things Seattle might spend their first pick on: corner or edge. I went with corner because the draft has few of those, while it feels very strong on a certain type of edge. I think we can play more into the depth of edge and wait for one. Especially since he will only be needed to “replace” the snaps of Boye Mafe. He can be a rotational player with a hope for upside.

I’ve narrowed my interest down to Tucker. I think he has more passrush talent to him than most in this draft range. I’m self-aware that Tucker may not be the right TYPE of edge player that Macdonald prefers. I lowkey think a guy named Michael Heldman from Central Michigan might be more of Macdonald’s vibe, but currently Heldman might be able to come to Seattle in rookie free agency.

#6.211 – Guard, Iowa, Beau Stephens

It still seems strange the way this front office and coaching staff has basically deferred the right guard job to Anthony Bradford. Will they continue to do so another year? It feels like a draft where there will be some late value on OL. We took a couple stabs at this idea in 2025 with Bryce Cabeldue and Mason Richman. Both have remained on the roster, while ultimately not overtaking Bradford.

Stephens comes from the same Iowa scheme that Richman came from, but is a much more accomplished player. He’s kind of the sneaky third-best known name from that Hawkeye OL behind center Logan Jones and right tackle Gennings Dunker.

We will be asking Stephens to flip from left guard at Iowa to right guard in Seattle.

#7.218 – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton

Much like most of this mock, for this draft, for this offseason; the goal might only need to be to replace role player with role player. In this case, we need a replacement for Coby Bryant. Singleton is a favorite of mine going back to the 2024 season. He’s a very high-floor, strong fundamental player. I love adding him to the DB room and letting him build from special teams and we go from there.

#7.242 – Tackle, Washington, Carver Willis

In the NIL era…and specifically in the UW/Fisch era…I have grown disenchanted with watching my beloved Huskies. I find it really difficult to connect with these random rosters of brand new transfer players every year. I don’t know who they are, where they come from, when they’re going to leave UW for another school.

In that spirit, I had not had a targeted viewing of LT Carver Willis until he was recently added to the Senior Bowl roster. After playing RT in 2024 for KState, Willis was the Husky LT this year. Listed 6’5″/312lbs, with sneaky athleticism on tape; Willis will slot into the backup OT role currently occupied by Josh Jones.

Seahawks draft targets: Running back

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I had planned to make these tiered draft pieces by position group for most positions, but I’ve been slacking through the holidays. Today I’m back on my bullshit and looking at running backs. Seahawks are currently looking at a free agency period where Kenneth Walker is at the end of his contract and unrestricted, and George Holani will be an exclusive rights free agent. It remains to be seen if they will pay him. The team HAS made in-season contract extensions this year with Charles Cross, Eric Saubert, Abe Lucas. If both team and player were eager for a reunion; we would have likely seen the extension.

I’m not convinced the Seahawks want him back. Certainly not on a veteran deal with Walker being paid above his current rookie scale. I suspect Mike Macdonald is looking for a different type of runner.

With Seahawks limited 2026 draft capital; it will be tough to project them using one of their four current picks on a RB. But, as you’ll soon see, I think this might be a draft cycle that you can prioritize RB in rookie free agency. John Schneider and his staff seemed to go pretty aggressive in the 2025 UDFA phase where they acquired guys like Jared Ivey, Amari Kight, Connor O’toole, Nick Kallerup.

This leads us to a refresher on the structure of these pieces on the tiers of the 2026 Draft. Basically, I’m looking for the best player from three tiers of investment: high, mid, low cost. For the Edge Rushers, I called high cost the 1st to 2nd round. Running back typically carries lower positional value, and this year there aren’t likely more than one name that will be picked in the 1st round. So I’m calling high cost for RB; 2nd to 3rd round. Mid = 4th to 7th. And I’m calling low for RB the entirety of rookie free agency.

High round:

Not only do I not really see a running back I would imagine Seattle would draft in the first round; I kinda don’t see anyone they would take in the first three rounds. I like Jonah Coleman very much, but in my analytics study of the RB class; Coleman didn’t really ping.

Emmett Johnson from Nebraska is ranked #84 on the big board, and hit on a few of my metrics, but failed on others. The guy is crazy elusive, but didn’t score highly on running after contact and a couple others.

The highest ranked RB that did ping was Penn State’s Kaytron “Fatman” Allen from Penn State. Listed 5’11″/219lbs, Allen has 1300 rushing yards this year with 15 TD’s. Consensus big board has Allen as the #124 player in the class, which actually lands mid-4th round. Until we get testing data at the Combine; I suspect Allen might test on the slower side.

Mid round:

I’m honestly fudging things a bit to get this mid-tier in here. For whatever reason; the media has a dogshit perception of this RB class. Miami RB Mark Fletcher, the guy who has basically been carrying the Miami offense in the college playoffs, is not ranked draftable. He is a Junior that, due to Miami’s playoff run, has not announced his draft intention. But even if you look at his 2027 draft value it comes in as UDFA.

Fletcher is listed at 6’2″/225lbs and rushed for 1080 yards and 10 TD this year after missing two games near the middle of the season. Up until recently, I was more or less assuming Macdonald likes a RB that resembles something he worked alongside and had to defend in Baltimore where guys like Kenyan Drake and Gus Edwards were bigger backs getting the bulk of the carries.

But recently Seattle has been adding guys like Velus Jones (6’0″/204lbs), Myles Gaskin (5’10″/200lbs), Kenny Mcintosh (6’0″/204lbs) to various parts of the roster, as well as having some rumored interest in Devon Achane (5’9″/191lbs) at the recent trade deadline. It’s a position group without total clarity of where Macdonald’s true vision lies because he has never, really, had to acquire an RB1 or RB2 since he’s been here. The only RB we’ve seen John and Mike draft since Mike arrived was 2025 when they picked Damien Martinez in the 7th round. Martinez was 6’0″/217lbs, but he was shortlived for the roster; and his “replacements” were primarily the smaller backs I just mentioned.

I am moving forward with my projections based on my own speculation of what I THINK would work best in this offense. I think Fletcher ticks a lot of the boxes.

Low round (UDFA):

This is where things really popped for my research, which means you probably don’t NEED to draft a RB. I got multiple guys that came up really interesting and the media has no clue.

Kaelon Black & Roman Hemby – The two guys sharing carries in the same Indiana backfield both scored very similarly in my study. Black is listed 5’10″/211lbs and rushed for 898 yards and 8 TD, while Hemby is listed 6’0″/210lbs and rushed for 1007 yards and 7 TD. Hemby has a little better standing nationally for draft projection as a guy that is barely outside the range of top 256 players on the board.

Hemby is possibly a tougher runner, while Black is a bit more explosive. Black is a better pass-blocker, while Hemby is a better pass-catcher. Two really intriguing players with great intangibles.

Kejon Owens – Owens is a 5’11″/210lb back coming out of Florida International who ran for 1300 yards and 11 TD’s, with bigtime explosive plays on tape. He reminds me a bit of Ken Walker.

Dontae Mcmillan – Listed 5’10″/203lbs, Mcmillan played at Eastern Michigan but he’s actually from Seattle. He has very good explosive numbers, but on tape I fear he might test a little slow in the forty. He ran for 1000 yards this year, but only 4 TD. I don’t know that Mcmillan would be my #1 RB I’d sign in UDFA, but as a Seattle guy; I think if you offer him a deal; he’ll take it.

Robert Henry – Listed 5’9″/205lbs, Henry ran for 1045 yards on only 151 carries, and added 9 TD. In spite of not being the biggest back, Henry posted some of the best scores on running after contact.

I think the Seahawks should punt on RB in the actual draft, and then offer guaranteed money to two RB in the rookie free agency period. If they can swing it; one of the Indiana guys and Kejon Owens would be very interesting.

2025: Year in Movies

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

For the last few years I’ve been spending a decent amount of time planning and tracking my new movie release viewing. I have a running list all year of upcoming movies that I hear/read about that have interest to me, or that have awards buzz, or both. I track them before I see them with theater and streaming release dates, and rank them after they come out with both a national scoring system as well as my personal rankings.

So today I get to reveal my final thoughts. This is not a fully comprehensive listing. I still have roughly 30 movies on my list that I have not seen, but about 80 that I have. Some I’m simply not interested in seeing, ever. Some I would watch if they were free on a streamer, but don’t want to pay to rent. Some have just not been out very long, and I haven’t had a chance to see yet.

My taste in movies kind of mirrors what my taste in music used to be when I worked in radio years ago…I want high art(ists) that are making pop hits. I want Radiohead making “Creep” or “Fake Plastic Trees” not Radiohead making “Weird Fishes”. My radio mentor used to call me “Mr Mersh”…meaning “commercial”. In movies…I’m primarily interested in Oscar-caliber movies, but the ones that can do a decent box office and will become those endlessly rewatchable movies 5-10 years from now. I don’t have much interest in 90% of Marvel movies, nor most IP/franchise chains. But I’m equally likely to think some of the critical darling, cinephile favorite films are godawful boring. I found both Top Gun Maverick and The Brutalist were dogshit films in the last couple years.

I’m looking for the sweet spot between art and populism. Sometimes that isn’t obvious in the moment…sometimes a movie is just hard to market, and it will take a few years for things to be found by people. Maybe this list can help do that for those that read it.

Before getting to the positive of this year…let me get a few rants out of the way.

“It Was Just an Accident” – what are we doing here? After seeing this movie; I think the world is patronizing the shit out of this. It’s an Iranian movie with an interesting backstory in how it was shot in secret, stealing shots on location because of inherent governmental oppression. But this movie, if made in America, is an absolutely mediocre movie. Remember the movie “Two Days in the Valley” that came out sometime after “Pulp Fiction” and was kind of biting themes and non-linear storytelling from Pulp, but doing it in a totally average way. “It Was Just an Accident” is like that. There is no grounding in human motivation from any of the characters. They float from mood to mood from scene to scene simply to get from plot beat A to plot beat B. There is no through logic. The hype around this movie is entirely misgiven. Actually, you know what would be sort of a comparable quality of an American movie from this year? “The Long Walk”. Both are primarily movies about people talking while on a long journey with subplot of an impending sense of murder hovering around every action. Cool, but “The Long Walk” is not an Oscar contender.

“28 Years Later” – I really wanted to like this movie. I liked the original “28 Days Later”. I like much of director Danny Boyle and screenwriter Alex Garland’s work. But this movie really felt like an incomplete thought. And knowing that a quick-turnaround sequel, “Bone Temple” was coming directly on its heels kind of supports that for me.

“Wicked 2” & “Avatar 3” – I have not seen either of these and am not planning on seeing them with any urgency after being disappointed with the prequels to each. “Wicked” is the kind of movie musical I loathe, and James Cameron…getting a fucking editor.

Would see but haven’t had the chance: “The Secret Agent”, “No Other Choice”, “Rental Family”, “Song Sung Blue”, “Testament of Ann Lee”. I’m sure I end up seeing something from this list probably within days of publishing this article, but as of now I have not.

Honorable Mentions:

“Ballad of Wallis Island” – What a charming movie. I’m generally pretty allergic to movie musicals because I need more of them to work like this, where the characters are musicians, performing the songs they wrote. I’m also a huge fan recently of movies that subvert expectations. I’m already instinctively looking for where a plot is going, so when filmmakers can surprise me; I’m so pleased.

“Wake Up Dead Man” – the third in the detective series from writer/director Rian Johnson and star Daniel Craig; I said immediately after finishing this one that I think this might be my favorite of the three. Is there some underlying message about the role of religion in modern American culture? Maybe. But I just found the mystery entertaining and surprising.

“Roofman” – every once in a while Channing Tatum sort of steps into one. I felt similarly about this movie and Tatum’s 2017 movie “Logan Lucky”. It’s light, it’s funny, it’s got sneaky heart, and I enjoy seeing the machinations of a heist/crime come together.

“The Friend” – what an interesting, unexpected little film about Naomi Watts’ character taking on an adopted Great Dane dog after a friend passes away. Tonally, it kind of reminded me of “Lars and the Real Girl”, if you know that movie.

“Eddington” – this was a year of very strange, perhaps experimental, movies coming out. Many of them were very much of this time in recent history, building on themes of what has become life in the 2020’s. “Eddington” felt like the one that got the least respect, perhaps because it was the one that walks the line closest between reality and farce and the way our reality has become such a farce. I felt like the distance between this movie and “One Battle After Another” was not that huge.

“Weapons” – a very entertaining movie, but ultimately I had too big of a problem with an unresolved plot hole to put it in my top 10. First 90 minutes I really enjoyed; I just wish it had a more complete ending.

“40 Acres” – to me, this was sort of the better version of the post-apocalyptic, family in danger from an encroaching horde, movie that people are crediting “28 Years Later” with being. Super entertaining.

“Sketch” – kind of a dark, magical kids movie, but for kids over a certain age that won’t be too scared of some of the imagery. Cool, original concept with some very modern themes. People need to find this movie.

“Companion” – I’m not sure what to note about this movie that is sort of a given from the trailer, and what might be bordering on spoiler, but this is a pretty damn entertaining mix of movies like “Ex Machina” and “Strange Darling”.

My Top 10 Movies of 2025:

#10 – “Legend of Ochi”. This is a highly stylized, imaginative fable of an older kids movie that I really enjoyed. The world-building was so fully-formed and beautiful that it reminded me of a movie called “Vesper” from a few years ago. Vesper was more of a sci-fi story, while Ochi is like historical Romanian tall tale, but I really liked spending time in both worlds. Thematically, it may be a little derivative of, like, “E.T.” but instead of a little boy protagonist; here we have a little girl, and instead of alien we have a sort of mythical, baboon creature. A really gorgeous, well-executed film.

#9 – “Bugonia”. Historically, I have not been much of a fan of Yorgos Lanthimos. I find his work absurdist for the sake of absurdity most of the time. But in “Bugonia”, I find that he has constructed a movie that has so much grounding in real people having real conversations with (ironically) real human motivations, with the caveat that one of the lead characters happens to be himself kind of an absurd personality, but one that absolutely exists in the world today, that I found the overall impact of the movie and its two lead actors to be really impressive.

#8 – “Train Dreams”. I had a bit of mixed emotions about “Train Dreams” because it is SOOO blatantly ripping off Terrence Malick in its use of nature shots and voiceover, but at the same time…this is the best Terrence Malick movie since “Thin Red Line”. I constantly wish Malick would hire a writer, have an actual script, and recapture that magic again, so this was ultimately a welcome homage. There are a number of visually stunning movies this year, but “Train Dreams” is certainly at the top of that list. The plot is sort of inconsequential…this is just a beautiful, lyrical ode to the history of the American Northwest with meticulous attention to the details of the period.

#7 – “Frankenstein”. This movie was everything I wanted it to be. The monster design was fantastic. The production design was exceptional. It was unique in the history of re-tellings of Frankenstein, while also being familiar. In a year of some pretty incredible, original stories; it’s a mild negative on my list that this movie is such a well-known entity, but it was still very enjoyable.

#6 – “Sinners”. It’s a little funny that back-to-back entries on my list fall to a Frankenstein monster and a vampire, but here we are. “Sinners” lands the higher of the two due to its original story. And, like “Ballad of Wallis Island”, I love that Sinners incorporates music in a naturalistic way. And what music it is.

In a lot of movie descriptions; you can kind of encapsulate them into, “it’s like ‘Rounders’ meets ‘Field of Dreams'”, or whatever the movies are. In a lot of cases you can nail down two primary influences. In “Sinners”; I felt like there were six or seven influences that Ryan Coogler was melding together. This was from Tarantino…this was from Nolan…etc. And there were probably many I didn’t even clock. I like that about it. I like most things about it. But can we stop doing post-credit scenes? I missed that whole thing when I saw it in the theater, and didn’t see it until a couple weeks ago watching it second time at home.

#5 – “Warfare”. This was THEE most intense experience I had watching a movie this year. I love what Alex Garland, and his co-director Ray Mendoza, have crafted here in terms of re-creating what it is truly like in a modern theater of war. The language, the actions, the protocols, the training, the camaraderie, the bravery. This movie created an experience within my body that I’ve rarely, if ever, experienced from a movie. It was like an induced panic attack. And it does it for basically the entire 90 minutes of runtime. It is such a fully-engrossing portrait and experience. I feel like, in so many years; this might have been my #1 film of the year.

#4 – “Marty Supreme”. If there was any question who the auteur half of the Safdie brother filmmaking dynamic was; I think we have a clear answer from recent releases of Benny Safdie’s MMA biopic “The Smashing Machine” and Josh Safdie’s table tennis pseudo biopic “Marty Supreme”. Benny made pure action and violence seem kinda boring while Josh made ping pong so fucking entertaining.

This is a GREAT movie. I kind of have no notes. The movie takes place in part or in whole in roughly 1952. The music is coming straight out of 1982. Shouldn’t work, but it does. The cast includes two generations of nepo babies, a hip hop star, and a tech CEO turned TV host. Chalamet is still doing it. If “Complete Unknown” was Chalamet’s symbolic parallel to Dicaprio’s “The Aviator”…”Marty Supreme” is his “Catch Me if You Can”. And it all works. This is like Safdie took 90% of the pace and anxiety of “Uncut Gems” and dialed it back to splash in about 5% more heart and 5% more Hollywood ending, and those edits make this so much more of a pleasing, rewatchable movie. And I loved “Uncut Gems”, but that shit is hard to watch.

#3 – “Sentimental Value”. I actually had this and “Marty Supreme” reversed right up until typing “#4” moments ago. I saw “Marty Supreme” on Christmas Eve, and then I watched “Sentimental Value” for the second time two nights ago, and maybe it’s recency bias, but I think on second viewing the impact of the emotional wallop of SV pushed it ahead of the pure entertainment of MS, for me.

I am not super familiar with writer/director Joachim Trier. I know I tried to watch his 2021 film, also starring SV’s lead Renate Reinsve, “The Worst Person in the World” and I never finished it. Didn’t enjoy it. If I’m being honest I generally have trouble with foreign language films, and “Sentimental Value” is probably 80% in Norwegian. I find the lack of understanding a language detracts from my ability to recognize the sincerity of the acting and line deliveries etc. I had no such problem with this movie. In fact, whatever awards shows that give a group award for best ensemble acting; I kinda think “Sentimental Value” should win. Stellan Skarsgard is almost always great, but is perhaps at his career best in this. Reinsve is extraordinary doing the kind of quiet, understated acting that is sometimes less recognized than something big and show-y. But the revelation of the film for me was the discovery of Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas as the sister to Reinsve and daughter to Skarsgard. Spellbinding work. I would give her the best supporting actress Oscar, but it probably goes to Amy Madigan.

#2 – “One Battle After Another”. I’m probably not a true Paul Thomas Anderson loyalist. I always try his movies, but I’m a strong fan of his movies only probably 50% of the time. I find I enjoy his movies set in present day more than something of a period piece. I don’t want PTA to write classical music…I want him to write fucking punk rock. “One Battle” is punk AF. This might be my new favorite film in the PTA catalogue.

I remember a few years ago, John Krasinski said that he made the movie “A Quiet Place” as a sort of love-letter to his daughters. This seems kind of an odd thought about, essentially, an alien invasion horror movie, but I lowkey wonder if this isn’t also a more personal movie expression for PTA than it might seem at first blush. I wonder if this isn’t also a love-letter from Anderson to his four kids (three of which are daughters) with Maya Rudolph.

“One Battle” kind of has a little bit of everything. There’s high action. There’s high comedy. There’s high suspense. There’s a high protagonist. There’s realism. There’s surrealism. There’s a pretty sentimental finale. There’s incredible performances from every star. There’s also incredible performances from people I’ve never heard of, or that have never even acted before, like the military interrogator or the native American bounty hunter.

I like this movie so much. I just liked one a bit better.

#1 – “Hamnet”. This. Movie. Fucked. Me. Up. The race for best picture this year sort of feels like a battle between divine masculine and divine feminine. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film is sooo masculine with all of its action and bombast…even the female characters are pretty macho. Chloe Zhao’s film is sooo feminine with all of its emotion and tenderness…even the male characters are pretty sensitive. Thinking about the contrast of these two films; I also thought of the films of Christopher Nolan. “One Battle” is “The Dark Knight”…”Hamnet” is “Interstellar”. I love both movies, but if put to the question; my favorite Nolan film is “Interstellar”. But the “Dark Knight” fucking slaps.

It’s become more and more common in recent years that movie fans use movie language like “set pieces” when they talk about movies. The standard usage is talking about ACTION set pieces like the oil well on fire in “There Will Be Blood”. I feel like “Hamnet” has these really powerful EMOTION set pieces running throughout the movie.

There’s Paul Mescal’s impassioned story he tells to woo Jesse Buckley’s Agnes at the beginning. There’s Mescal playing with his young son, Hamnet, and asking him if he will be brave. There’s Buckley acting the shit out of one of the all-time great woman-in-labor scenes ever. And then Buckley watching the debut performance of “Hamlet”. Oof. Good luck.

This movie is a singular movement. The visuals, the music, the story, the performances…they are all stunning. I can’t wait to see it again. I can’t wait to see other people see it for the first time.

I already know I’m in the minority in my rankings. “One Battle” is literally an example of what I described earlier as the kind of movies I’m looking for. It finished about #30 in 2025 box office with $71million. “Hamnet” isn’t even top 100 and has made under $11mill to date. But sometimes a “Shawshank Redemption” only makes $16mill in the theaters, but its true legacy is how the movie grows across its entire life. I think “Hamnet” has a chance to be really impactful in 5, 10, 20, 50 years.

Seahawks draft targets: Edge Rusher

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’ve been locating, cataloging, documenting various aspects of this draft cycle; it started to occur to me there might be a post, or series of posts, illustrating various tiers of draft capital investment. In a big-picture view, this can help to establish positional priorities, and it may also lock in the tiers of talent across all positions that can help evolve a general draft strategy of when to focus your draft picks vs when to bail from draft ranges.

The first position group I’ve decided to take a closer look at is one that draft media has long said is a strength of this year: the Edge rushers. As I dug into the position in as comprehensive a manner as I could; I discovered multiple new names to add to my board, which I think supports the idea that this is a deep group.

Edge also feels particularly relevant to the Seahawks due to the news/rumors that came out during the trade deadline build-up where-in impending free agent Edge Boye Mafe was being floated as a trade away candidate. Seattle may be anticipating a good Edge draft and willing to let Mafe walk as a free agent for a potential compensatory draftpick, and replace Mafe with youth.

The format for these pieces, which I’m currently planning to do for all position groups, will be to identify a candidate(s) at a high price point (1st-2nd round), a mid price point (3rd-5th round), and a low price point (6th round-UDFA). These candidates will be weighted as much to what I believe to be current Seahawk traits under John Schneider as the buyer for a Mike Macdonald menu.

High round:

I did some pretty intensive research into what I think Macdonald likes in his Edge players. I tried to be pretty objective to the traits I think he likes, I allowed each player to have one category where they fell below standard, but they could not have two strikes against, and this led to some interesting eliminations, and certainly to some VERY interesting additions.

After going through multiple levels of eliminations; I only came away with one name still in consideration that currently has projection in the top 64 picks/top two rounds: Missouri Edge Zion Young. It should be noted there are five names that survived my process, and Zion finished fifth of five of those names.

Young has 15.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 11 hurries in 11 games so far this year, and he has projection in roughly the middle of the second round.

Mid round:

Again, I only came away with one player in this range: Miami Edge Akheem Mesidor. Mesidor had some interesting pings in studying the group. He has posted 12.0 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 4 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in 10 games. His consensus draft ranking puts him in the third round. I think this is an interesting idea. A trench player from a blue chip program is never far from Schneider’s heart.

Low round:

This is where I felt things got really interesting. This is where I came away with three names that survived all rounds of elimination without accruing two strikes. All three of these guys currently are projecting as undrafted free agent types. Some of that will change with decent athletic testing at the Combine. Some of that will change simply because the media is less aware of these guys than NFL teams actually are.

#1 – From SMU we have Edge Cameron Robertson, who has missed three games this year, but was back in the lineup for SMU’s most-recent game vs Louisville on November 22nd. In the eight games Robertson has played, he has posted 9.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 3 hurries.

#2 – From Central Michigan, we have Edge Michael Heldman. There’s something about the recent chatter about the Seahawks acquiring Maxx Crosby, a highly productive college player that came from Eastern Michigan and was drafted in the 4th round, that makes me intrigued with Heldman and the next guy I will talk about. Heldman has recorded 13.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 9 hurries in eleven games this year.

(Just for reference…Crosby in his draft year posted 19.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 7 hurries in twelve games.)

#3 – From Western Michigan we have Edge Nadame Tucker. Tucker was part of my recent mock draft that was primarily tape-based, and he looks even more intriguing after seeing him come out as still highly relevant in this more analytics-based study. He has 18.0 TFL, 12.0 sacks, 12 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in twelve games. He did come up short in one of my metrics, but in every other category; he really looked like a potential fit for Macdonald.

This is a very exciting player that draft media is not caught up on…yet.

I did a separate piece of analysis this week just trying to gauge Seattle’s interest in various position groups, and it really did make it seem they may be putting emphasis on Edge rusher(s). But then the question becomes: “does emphasis mean chronological priority?” Does needing an Edge rusher on your roster mean you force a pick on one in a draft that may see some quality guys fall further down due to depth of the class? Now, I’m not saying they wait until rookie free agency to get one of the three guys I highlighted as currently projected there…I suspect that will change by April. But it might mean you can get one on day three of the draft (like Crosby).

My priority list currently goes: Tucker, Heldman, Mesidor. In that order.

Mariners offseason plan

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been spending some time this weekend thinking about what the Mariners could do this offseason, after signing Josh Naylor, to improve upon their 2025 season. What combination best fills the holes of free agency while staying within the structure of budget that is certainly at play from ownership?

This is what I came up with.

I’m sure this won’t be the most popular structure, and I’m fairly certain the front office has a plan that will be perceived more popular, but this is my pretty objective thought.

#1 – Sign one of the posted Japanese players.

It’s been a minute since Seattle has had a substantial Japanese presence on the roster, but I think there is value, both on the field and off, to be found there.

I’ve targeted 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto as the Japanese signing I would pursue. Yes, he is the older of the two big bats, but the power is not that much less, and I think the pitch recognition is so much better and should travel. I think many people think Okamoto is JUST a first baseman, but I like his tape at third, where he won Gold Gloves as recently as 2022, I believe, to be adequate to replace Eugenio Saurez.

As far as Geno…it’s hard to say goodbye to him. I think he brought an emotional character to the clubhouse that was important in both of his stints here. If Geno would be willing to take the same money as I’m proposing Kazuma takes; I would probably just keep the continuity with Geno.

Speaking of the contract…most industry writers project Okamoto gets 3-4 years, and then it’s a pretty wide range of money from, like, $12 to $16mill AAV. I’ve budgeted him at three years, $40.5 million, or $13.5mill AAV.

#2 – Trader Jerry season.

We may NEED to see some trades this winter. Having spent on Naylor, and with the club expected to spend decently on someone else in free agency, we’re going to need to augment the roster with some younger, cheaper, but still MLB-proven, players. We have the farm system that should support making some of these moves.

Trade #1: In my model, I found that if Jorge Polanco gets the contract he’s projected to get; it will be one of the better values in all of MLB. If Seattle does go that route…hey, cool. It’s probably not a bad move. But I, personally, just worry about extending too many of these players that are aging out of their prime.

So, my first trade would be to send the #75 prospect in all of MLB, and the #7 prospect on the M’s top 30, OF Jonny Farmelo, plus our #18 prospect, RHP Michael Morales, to the St Louis Cardinals for IF/OF Brendan Donavan.

The Cardinals have the #5 prospect in all of baseball, JJ Weatherholt, set to debut in 2026, so they’re going to need a position for him to play, and so maybe they make Donovan available.

Donovan has position flexibility, but he spent 82 of his 97 starts last year at second base, and that will be where I pencil him in for Seattle in 2026.

In terms of the return going to the Cards…honestly, this is my most important trade, so I give them their first choice of any of our #6-#8 prospects, Michael Arroyo, Farmelo, or Jurrangelo Cijntje. But when I looked at their farm system; it just felt like they could use outfield help more than 2B or pitching.

Donovan is an Arbitration-2 player about to turn 29 in January, with club control through 2027, and he should cost roughly $5.75mill this year. Last year he hit .287/.353/.775 with 10 HR, 50 RBI in 118 games.

Trade #2: In order to replace some of the power lost by Polanco not being re-signed; I’m going to try to add some in the outfield. I am sending the Detroit Tigers #8 prospect SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje plus OF/IF Luke Raley in order to acquire OF Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter destroyed Seattle in the postseason, so Mariner fans may have some mixed emotions about this one, but Carpenter is a 28 y/o who hit 26 HR in 130 games last year, with a slash line of .252/.291/.788, but a career OBP of .322, so we’re gonna try to straighten some of that back out.

Raley ends up the short straw between he and Dom Canzone in terms of who we would prefer to retain as a bench lefty outfielder. His ability to backup 1B is also now covered by Okamoto. There just really isn’t space for him, and he’s also the more expensive of he and Canzone, as he was projected to make $1.75mill next year. That’s not nothing when we’re pushing as hard as we can up against the “salary cap”.

Carpenter has three years of club control remaining, and he should cost about $3.5mill this year depending on arbitration. He may end up in true platoon with Victor Robles in right field, as Carpenter hit righties at a .257 clip while Robles hit .213 against them, and then Robles hit lefties .289 while Carpenter hit .217 off them.

I’m sure a lot of fans, and probably the front office, bristle at the idea of trading away Cijntje, but we’re holding onto Ryan Sloan and 2025 first rounder Kade Anderson, who probably fit better in the timeline of our pitching development/cost progression anyways. I felt like we NEEDED to part with someone quality to get an MLB player with “now” ability and cheap club control. That looked like Cijntje.

Trade #3: I’ve got a couple of smaller trades that fans may not immediately recognize, but trust me…I didn’t so much fucking homework on these. I’m sending 2B Cole Young to the Kansas City Royals for righthanded reliever Lucas Erceg.

Erceg kind of ends up a cap casualty for the Royals who have probably a tighter budget than Seattle, and will have multiple arbitration raises to work through. Erceg is a bit older as he will turn 31 early in the 2026 season, but he has club control through 2029, and should cost about $2.00mill this year. It’s not that different from when Seattle got ahold of Paul Sewald in his age 31 season.

Erceg has been a very solid reliever for the last two years between Oakland and Kansas City posting sub-4.00 ERA’s including a 2.64 mark last year. His strikeouts were down a bit in 2025, but his velo and pitch metrics are still very strong.

Young becomes somewhat expendable with Donovan acquired and Colt Emerson nipping at his heels in AAA already. Emerson may, eventually, be the replacement for JP Crawford at SS in 2027, but he probably has to start somewhere else when he debuts in 2026. In a scenario where Emerson plays 2B; Donovan could play LF with Randy Arozarena benched vs RHP. The Royals like this trade as they can either make Jonathan India available in trade immediately, or slot Young in as his replacement in 2027 and give him another year to develop.

Trade #4: This is the smallest, but perhaps sneakiest, trade of all. I’m sending #12 prospect OF Tai Peete to the San Francisco Giants for lefthanded reliever Erik Miller.

Miller is a big boy at 6’5″/268lbs and he posted a 1.50 ERA, but pedestrian 6.0 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 numbers across 36 appearances and 30.0 innings for the Giants in 2025. His season ended early when he was placed on the IL in early July with elbow soreness from which he never came back. Obviously, this trade would be contingent on a physical, but I like the “buy-low” nature here in order to acquire a lefty that touches 99mph with run. And he’s only 28 in February with club control through 2029 and should only cost $820k this year.

Even if the injury is still not fully resolved; there is enough meat on the bone that this could be a useful trade across the life of the deal. This could end up sort of resembling when Seattle acquired Andres Munoz while he was in injury recovery for the Padres. We got Munoz on August 30, 2020 after he didn’t appear at all for SD that season, and he didn’t pitch for Seattle until October 3rd, 2021.

After all of these transactions, the Mariner rotation remains fully intact. The defense should be better with Donovan > Polanco, and potentially Ben Williamson starting at 3B with Okamoto at DH. Power rates may be down a bit, but contact rates should be better (really, we are mistakenly taking credit for Saurez’ 49 homeruns, when in fact he only hit 13 for SEA). The farm system maintained our top 6 prospects, along with keeping guys like SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, OF Yorger Bautista, SS Nick Becker from the top 15. And we didn’t blow our remaining (expected) $23mill budget surplus on one guy. We’ve addressed 2B, 3B, OF, RHP, and LHP. We’ve got relatively younger without becoming inexperienced, and we’ve left room for minor league promotions.

New Roster:

C- Raleigh, Ford
1B- Naylor, Okamoto
2B- Donovan, Rivas
SS- Crawford, Rivas
3B- Williamson, Okamoto
LF- Arozarena, Donovan, Canzone
CF- Rodriguez, Robles
RF- Carpenter, Robles, Canzone
DH- Okamoto, Carpenter

SP1- Woo
SP2- Gilbert
SP3- Kirby
SP4- Castillo
SP5- Miller

CL- Munoz
RHRP- Brash, Bazardo, Erceg, Hoppe
LHRP- Speier, Miller, Ortiz

Seahawk November mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re now a week past the trade deadline and we have an update on what picks the Seahawks have left after acquiring Rashid Shaheed from New Orleans. It is commonly being reported that Seattle has four picks left, but I think it’s five*. At the end of the preseason, we traded OT Mike Jerrell to Atlanta for a conditional 7th round pick. I did some digging and I don’t see any reason why people aren’t counting that pick other than, possibly, they’re cynical that Jerrell will hit the triggers (most likely games active or season snap count rate) to secure the pick for Seattle. But for now I’m going to include it.

So, Seattle has the picks at roughly #1.29, #2.61, #3.93, #6.207, #7.224. If we get to the draft and haven’t traded our first round pick for a veteran player; I really think John Schneider will trade back their first to get some more picks. I’m actually projecting two trades: #1.29 goes to Cleveland for picks #2.38, #4.104, #5.151 and then I have our pick #3.93 going to Denver for pick #4.103 and #4.130. Final draft pick allotment:

#2.38
#2.61
#4.103
#4.104
#4.130
#5.151
#6.207
#7.224

The next thing I’m taking a look at to inform this mock draft will be the Seahawk 2026 unrestricted free agents. We’re due to lose CB Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen, and Shemar Jean-Charles, DE Boye Mafe, LB Chazz Surratt, OT Josh Jones, RB Ken Walker, S Coby Bryant, WR Rashid Shaheed and Dareke Young. TE and DT have really good continuity into next year.

Seeing three CB as potential roster losses, and then knowing that this draft is not that strong at CB is a huge problem, to me. I’m kind of pushing a pick up for need, but it’s not a huge problem because some of the other positions we “need”, like WR and DE, have pretty good depth in this class.

#2.38 – Cornerback, San Diego State, Chris Johnson

I think we need to re-sign one of Jobe or Woolen, but then also draft a CB as early as possible. Johnson was in my previous mock but at a later round. Now I’m just cutting to the point. He’s 6’0″/195lbs, and for the year so far he has 3 INT, 7 PBU, 40 tackles, 2.0 TFL.

#2.61 – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

Personally, I just don’t think Jalen Sundell nor Olu Oluwatimi are the future of our Center position. We need to actually address it with some urgency. Slaughter was my favorite college center in the 2024 season, and I haven’t really seen much to move someone ahead of him. I know Logan Jones from Iowa is a touted athlete with good zone blocking experience, but I just like Slaughter’s brain more.

#4.103 – Quarterback, Duke, Darian Mensah

Obviously, the narrative has changed on Sam Darnold. But it’s probably not the last time it does. He’ll be recency biased to death based on his two most recent games for a while.

That isn’t really what this mock pick is about. I’ve never been a fan of Drew Lock, and I’ve consistently had my doubts on Jalen Milroe. I would like to take another midround shot at finding a developmental QB. Maybe Sam Darnold continues his current play and Mensah will be an inexpensive backup QB for 2-4 years, maybe Darnold reverts to his Jets’ form and Mensah becomes a starter sooner than we’d guess in November 2025. Doesn’t matter. One thing this draft does have is depth at QB. The first round may be a QB landmine, but there are a number of guys with middle round projection and yet some upside.

Mensah is listed 6’3″/205lbs, and currently playing to a 69.8% completion, 8.7 ypa, 24 TD to 4 INT, and a 165.07 passer rating. Basically, top 15 numbers for all QB’s this year. He is a redshirt sophomore this year after spending two years at Tulane, the most recent of which he started 13 games.

#4.104 – Linebacker, Texas Tech, Jacob Rodriguez

I think we’ve seen enough of the Mike Macdonald defense over the last year and a half to recognize it can be massively impacted by not having the right kind of guy playing linebacker. Ernest Jones really stabilized that position when he was acquired last year…Drake Thomas has been doing some really interesting things since becoming a starter a few weeks ago…Tyrice Knight had probably the best game of his career this week with Jones inactive with his injury. All of those guys have team control for at least another year. Rodriguez is just gonna be a guy we use to take the roster spot of Surratt, while also believing Rodriguez could slip into that green dot player a year or two down the road.

Rodriguez is listed 6’1″/235lbs, and he’s putting together an impressive 2025 campaign with 91 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 3 INT, 5 PBU, and he leads the country with 7 forced fumbles.

#4.130 – Offensive Line, Boise State, Kage Casey

I like this class of Guards, with a few that are college Tackles that likely kick in to Guard. For me, I’m drawn to a guy that CAN play tackle so that we have a de facto replacement for Josh Jones, but then you also get another warm body to challenge for the starting Right Guard job.

Casey is listed 6’5″/311lbs and he’s a very Northwest guy…college in Idaho after high school in Oregon. It’s a fun story to close the circuit going pro in Washington.

#6.151 – Wide Receiver, Duke, Cooper Barkate

After trading for Rashid Shaheed, and the subsequent press conference commentary that it seems Shaheed and the Seahawks will look to create a contract extension for him; I think we can look for a different type of WR in the next draft. In a literal sense, we’re looking to replace Dareke Young on the roster, but watching Barkate’s tape I also found myself thinking of a different receiver.

Barkate is listed 6’1″/195lbs, and so far he has posted 50 catches for 824 yards, 16.48ypc, and 5 TD in 9 games.

#6.207 – Edge Rusher, Western Michigan, Nadame Tucker

I have this idea of what Mike Macdonald covets in his Edge Rushers. Tucker is not that. After including the Macdonald type guy in my outline prior to writing this mock; I kind of abandoned it and went with the guy that looks like a potential future NFL contributor that was available late in the draft. This is a draft with some projected depth at DE, so we’re hoping to hit on one from that depth.

Tucker is listed 6’3″/250lbs with 38 tackles, 15.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 8 hurries, and 3 FF for the year. There have been numerous reports that Seattle was close to trading away Boye Mafe last week, so it seems we need to be expecting that he won’t be back for 2026 once he enters free agency next March. The big question going forward is: “what is their idea for replacing him?” Do they have a DE trade in mind that they may revisit after the season? Is there someone on the roster or practice squad that they see upside in, and will look to elevate next year? Or, are they thinking they could trade Mafe away and find someone in a deep DE draft?

#7.224 – Running Back, Miami, Mark Fletcher

Ken Walker is another impending free agent, and it’s really not clear what Seattle might intend to do with him. For the first half of the season, they’ve really been closely monitoring K9’s pitch counts. Are they simply trying to maintain his health to get him to the postseason? Or, maybe, more cynically, they may be trying to keep his free agent price lower so as to allow them to re-sign him cheaper.

Fletcher is listed 6’2″/225lbs, and has 636 yards rushing and 9 TD’s for the year.

The only free agent I haven’t really addressed via draftpick is Coby Bryant. I do have a short list of priority free agents, one of which is Nebraska Safety Deshon Singleton. In a down draft year; it’s tough to expect much, if any, talent to fall to undrafted free agency, so these names can be taken with a grain of salt, but right now I’ve got names like Singleton, LB Jack Kelly, OG Justin Pickett that would be amazing to sign after the draft.

Seahawks Mocktober

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Tomorrow marks, roughly, week six of the college season, so we’ve got a pretty good idea of the players that have fallen out of favor from preseason mocks, and those that are rising to replace them. Unfortunately, it appears more and more like this isn’t a good year for the draft. Certainly, not in the first round. If the Seahawks were to trade their 2026 first rounder for some kind of veteran blue chip player that will help us right now; it would be a very calculated and shrewd move. I’m not going to project that move. Anyways, outside of Maxx Crosby, I’m not sure there are many of this caliber player that are also on bad teams right now, that Seattle could acquire.

I tend to think John Schneider will make some kind of move(s) prior to this trade deadline. Those moves would inevitably include some kind of draft compensation switching hands. I have a couple ideas on those types of moves I would like to see, but I am not including them in this mock. We can revisit the post-trade-deadline draft capital in November.

For now…Seattle only owns six 2026 draftpicks. Those picks fall roughly at: #1.23, #2.54, #3.85, #4.120, #5.160, #6.183.

In terms of Crosby and the Edge rusher position…I would LOVE to acquire that type of player. I have such roster envy when I see the teams with elite edge rushers. But…I have documented Mike Macdonald’s own words describing that his defensive scheme is designed to be a team passrush by design. He doesn’t NEED that elite edge rusher. Would he take one if one were to fall in the Seahawks lap in the draft?? Probably.

That brings me to my next point: when I studied this overall draft class in terms of depth of talent; I found that the two strongest positions were quarterback and edge rusher. Does this mean 1st round grade? Not necessarily. But I feel confident that if you take a dart-throw at one (or both) of those positions as a late 1st round positioned team, all the way back to the third, maybe fourth, round; you have a puncher’s chance of hitting on something great.

For me, with Sam Darnold playing as well as he has, at the contract value he is playing under, with two more QB on the roster for cheap through (at least) 2026, and with the way this college QB class is still painfully moving through transition of who the media THOUGHT would be the relevant QB’s in preseason to the eventuality of the guys that will ACTUALLY be the 1st round names and later the NFL franchise guys; I just can’t imagine Seattle’s first round pick is a QB.

I could see this more like the scenario we saw unfold in the 2025 draft where Seattle took their top guys at positions the NFL undervalues, or they could force drafting players from the shallower position groups this class that line up with Seattle “needs”. I think it’s too early to present a mock of the latter in terms of the 1st round. My mock drafts are always based around the current market price of players, and as such, in October, I can still find those need positions at later rounds.

My pick for the first round will be following the strategy of drafting from the strength of the particular draft class.

#1.23 – Defensive End, Oregon, Matayo Uiagalelei

Matayo Uiagalelei is a 6’5″/272lb junior OLB/DE. He is the brother of Charger backup quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, and cousin to UW edge Taitai Uiagalelei. He is the leading passrusher for the #6 defense in the country and his 2025 statline goes: 11 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 2 hurries, 3 PBU.

The Seahawk roster currently has Demarcus Lawrence on a three-year deal that could be a one-year deal with only $4.6mill dead-cap in 2026. Uchenna Nwosu has one more year left with an $8.5mill dead-cap hit. Boye Mafe is on the last year of his rookie deal, and Derick Hall has one more year remaining on his. We do need some reinforcements at the Edge position.

Matayo vs the run:

Matayo passrush:

#2.54 – Cornerback, SDSU, Chris Johnson

In my opinion, Seattle needs get more out of their corner and inside linebacker rooms. They may address one, or both, of these positions via trade in the next few weeks. In the meantime, I am addressing both in the draft.

Chris Johnson is a 6’0″/195lb senior corner for the Aztecs with 29 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PBU, and a FF on the year. As with most of my October mock drafts every year; many of my early picks will be higher on media boards by April. But for now we can get CJ here.

I have yet to find many suitable CB for this draft class, which puts a higher priority on drafting one than many other positions. I could, conceivably, see Schneider draft one in the 1st round with two of his current starting CB set to be free agents.

#3.85 – Linebacker, Cincinnati, Jake Golday

After two years of Mike Macdonald, it has become clear how important the inside linebacker position is to him. And he has no patience for guys that can’t grasp his scheme. The only mild surprise is that he hasn’t used more resources to secure quality players at the positions.

Jake Golday is a throwback to a prior era of linebacker as a 6’4″/240lb athlete at the position. He has 49 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 1 PBU, and a FF on the year. He will rise throughout this process.

#4.120 – Quarterback, Missouri, Beau Pribula

After five weeks of NFL football…I think the conversation on Sam Darnold is turning from “his contract makes it easy to get out of his deal after a year” to “this is a great, cost effective contract to have on our starting QB for the next three years.” I don’t mind that because I, personally, am not a fan of our backup situation. I’ve never liked Drew Lock, and I still have considerable reservations on Jalen Milroe. I don’t mind drafting another QB in a middle round in 2026, giving him two years to backup Darnold and learn the system (and the league), and then trade away one of Lock/Milroe for draft capital. As long as we’re using mid-round picks to do it; I think it’s a worthwhile endeavor.

At the same time…this quarterback draft class is completely off the rails. The preseason guys have completely fallen off. Off fell Nico Iamaleava, and Sam Leavitt, and Cade Klubnik. Still falling off are Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier. I still have my doubts about Carson Beck, but at the moment I can’t say his play has fallen off. And then I think Arch Manning and Lanorris Sellers are prime candidates to stay in school another year.

Rising in their places: Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, Jayden Maiava, Luke Altmyer, Dante Moore, Ty Simpson, Darian Mensah, Sawyer Robertson, and Beau Pribula. I’ve sort of tentatively circled the trio of Altmyer, Robertson, and Pribula as the three I’m focusing on. All three have had reasons to be excited so far.

Robertson leads the country in passing yards and passing TD’s.

Altmyer is second in the country in YPA, 7th in comp %, 5th in passer rating, and he’s one of three QB in the country with at least 10 TD and 0 INT that have thrown over 140 pass attempts (but the only one from a power 5 school).

Pribula’s highest ranking is completion % where he ranks third in the country, but he has Mizzou undefeated and the #14 team in the country.

I’ve recently had to cut back on my ranking of Robertson because of comments he has made in press conferences that, I think, point to him not having the personality I seek in a leader that wants to win like a sociopath. Like, I think he’s a mentally healthy human being, but mentally healthy human beings don’t generally win Super Bowls.

I have my reasons for choosing Pribula over Altmyer…most of which I’m not going to get into in this mock. Suffice to say; he is my current pick until his draft stock rises and I have to make some tougher choices. At the moment, I’m thrilled to get him in the third round.

#5.160 – Tight End, Missouri, Brett Norfleet

This is NOT a good class of tight ends. Certainly not compared to the 2025 class. It would be incredibly smart for a few junior TE to declare early. That’s what Norfleet is. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6″/260lbs, and I’ve enjoyed seeing his physicality in his run-blocking and pass-catching when I’ve been watching Pribula’s tape. His numbers aren’t overwhelming at 20 catches, 174 yards, 8.70 ypc, but 4 TD’s is good enough for tied for 24th in the country in receiving TD for all targets, and tied for first amongst all TE.

#6.183 – Guard, Duke, Justin Pickett

There was a draft of this mock where I had Seattle taking ANOTHER first round Guard. That might be pushing John Schneider too hard on something he isn’t totally comfortable doing, after he finally broke from tendency and drafted Grey Zabel in the first last year. I’m not sure if a Center would also be pushing it, too (I do love Jake Slaughter, but he might only cost a second, anyways).

But also, I started looking at Justin Pickett. He is a 6’7″/320lb senior OL on the same side as the buzzy draft name, Brian Parker, only Pickett gets like 1% of the same publicity.

One of my favorite things to do in mock drafting is to draft backwards. Who are the guys you absolutely love, that you would bang the table for, that are currently available in the 5th-6th rounds? Okay, write those guys in pen in those late rounds FIRST, and then circle back to the top of the draft where you can take other positions with even less pressure to take a need.

I have a pro player-comp for Pickett in mind, which I can’t put on record right now. I will say the comp is a pro bowl player that was drafted on day three of his particular draft.

Pickett is #77 in these couple snaps, playing at right guard. That first snap looks like a textbook mirror drill from the NFL Combine.

I’m aware that this mock draft is lacking. It’s lacking in volume, for one. It’s lacking in player for pick trades, and it’s lacking in any kind of trade back within the draft to add picks. And, I think, it’s lacking in a WR.

Some drafts you go into them trying to find stars, some drafts you go into them trying to fill free agent holes on your roster, and some drafts you go into them looking to make pointed improvements to your returning roster. For me, this year is kind of the latter. Can we improve RG over Anthony Bradford? Can we improve TE over Brady Russell? Can we improve QB over Drew Lock? Can we improve LB over Tyrice Knight? Can we improve CB over Riq Woolen? Can we improve DE over Uchenna Nwosu?

The 2026 Seahawk roster is in a good place. Our impending unrestricted free agent list goes: Josh Jones (backup OT), Boye Mafe (0 sacks), Johnathan Hankins (still on NFI), Ken Walker, Josh Jobe, Eric Saubert (TE3-4), Chazz Surratt (LB4-5), Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen, Dareke Young (WR5). That’s maybe five starters, but one of which we may already be actively shopping in trade and likely won’t be re-signed. If you did nothing else in terms of free agency; the mock draft I’ve laid out above gets you replacements for Mafe, Saubert, Surratt, Woolen without spending a dime above rookie contracts. And then some of the 2025 starters become 2026 backups. You’ve lengthened your lineup. Which might be the best case scenario for this draft cycle.

Mariner 2025 draft redux

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The 2025 MLB Draft is now in the books. Teams have three more days, I believe, to sign their draftpicks from this class, and so we have bonus figures on over 80% of the total player pool. Something I’ve done for a few years now after the draft is to put together a post-draft mock that incorporates the actual draft position of players, as well as factoring the bonus figures they sign for, in order to document a plausible full draft that Seattle could have made.

My rules for this:

Obviously, I can’t draft someone at pick #35 that came off the board at pick #34. I do allow myself to “reach” on players as much as I want.

The 21 total draft selections must be players that have signed with their respective teams. I can’t pick a high school player, for example, that turned down opportunity to go pro in favor of attending college. I do allow myself to draft a player that went undrafted, but signed as UDFA.

The 21 players’ bonuses must total under the bonus pool Seattle went into the draft with, and, for picks in rounds 11-20, any bonus over $150,000 will count towards the bonus pool for rounds 1-10.

Lastly, it’s not a rule, per se, but I did have a guideline where I tried to draft the same as Seattle did in terms of position ratios. Seattle drafted 13 pitchers, 8 bats…so that was my target. If Seattle drafted three catchers…I tried to draft three catchers. But sometimes I would fudge a bit in order to match traits (power righthanded bat) instead of defensive position.

One more note before we start…I had heard before the draft that Seattle was struggling to find a way to actually spend the amount of bonus pool money they had, which was the second-biggest pool in all of MLB. I kind of get that now. It really was hard to find ways to spend the last, roughly $800-900k. Once you get out of the top 75 picks, or so, there really aren’t many high school players that received overslot deals, and that I also liked as prospects.

I had briefly considered taking someone other than Kade Anderson at pick #3 in order to see how a bigger underslot deal there could affect the rest of the draft. It really wasn’t going to do anything for me beyond the third round. And it wasn’t even much of a difference-maker in terms of who I could target in the top 100 picks.

So we begin the same as Seattle.

#1.3 – LHP, Louisiana State, Kade Anderson

The only other real thought for me here was to reach on Patrick Forbes. I really liked Forbes. Forbes was picked at #1.29 and signed for $3.00mill. That’s $5.8mill less than Anderson got. And I can’t take Forbes at the Mariners’ next pick at #35. The optics just don’t work.

I don’t love Anderson as a prospect. I think he’s more similar to Emerson Hancock than Logan Gilbert, etc. But Hancock has made it to the show, and he’s had some good stretches of pitching in Seattle. He may still get better in time. But if you re-drafted 2020 now and still took Hancock at #6 over Garrett Crochet (pick #11), Pete Crow Armstrong (pick #19), Jordan Westburg (pick #30); I think you’re crazy. There will be players taken after Anderson that are better than him. And Forbes might be one.

Obviously, Anderson maintains the same bonus of $8.8mill.

#1.35 – SS, Don Bosco Prep, Nicky Becker

This pick and the second round pick could be interchanged with no real difference in the grand scheme. I moved Becker up because as the actual draft was unfolding; I was uncomfortable with how slim the prep shortstop board was getting, and I would have pulled the trigger on Becker here.

He gets the same bonus here that Seattle gave him at #57: $2.75mill.

I am passing on Luke Stevenson because there is a lefthanded college catcher further down the board that I prefer.

#2.57 – LHP, Lyndon B Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

Seattle drafted a prep lefthanded pitcher in their actual 19th round in Cam Appenzeller, who quickly confirmed he was already on campus at the University of Tennessee and wasn’t sure why Seattle drafted him.

In my case, I get my favorite prep lefty, and he did sign with the Angels for $2.5mill.

#3.91 – 3B, Foothills HS, Tim Piasentin

This is the biggest move away from Seattle’s actual draft that I am making. Seattle did not draft any third basemen, and were pretty limited in the number of prep players they drafted. I thought all along leading up to this draft that the best move was to be aggressive on the upside of the prep players, rather than the high floor with little upside of the college class.

I liked Piasentin pre-draft, but had never really found a spot for him without knowing his bonus request. He signed with Toronto for only $747,500, which is only about $100k more than what Seattle actually spent on Griffin Hugus with their literal third round pick. I think that’s a steal.

#4.122 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

I had Taylor in my mocks pre-draft, and I still think Seattle should have drafted him. His now stuff profiles very well to me, and he cost $36k less than what they paid Mason Peters. The thing I noticed about Seattle’s actual draft class this year was that they seemed to be avoiding guys that were older, true “senior sign” candidates. Which, to me, is a weird thing to decide as a wholesale strategy. But Seattle drafted some older guys in 2024, and have had numerous injury issues from that class, so maybe this is their fix for that.

#5.152 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Again, Smith was in most of my mock drafts. He’s a lefthanded, power-hitting, good defensive college catcher. Very similar profile to Luke Stevenson. The difference is…age. Stevenson is only recently 21 years old…Smith will be 23 later this year. But…Smith’s hit tool, and eye at the plate are currently better than Stevenson’s.

Boston signed with the Nats for only $50k. So this is a huge savings to reallocate to other rounds.

#6.182 – RHP, Arizona St, Lucas Kelly

I had a couple other names I was interested in pre-draft, and they fit in this spot both selection-wise, and bonus wise (one of them could have actually saved an additional $75k), but part of my goal is to split the difference between my thoughts and what Seattle thought about how to structure this draft.

And Kelly has some interesting traits. Obviously, his velo stood out amongst this class. I feel like Seattle has gotten into some trouble when they’ve hunted pure velo if/when it came at the expense of other things like control, but they didn’t do a ton of that this year, so I’m gonna allow it this one time.

Kelly’s bonus stays the same at $325,000.

#7.212 – LHP, Old Dominion, Dylan Brown

I had more interest in finding some lefthanded options for Seattle in this draft. I’m not sure why they don’t prioritize them more. Even if Seattle analytics has some number that shows righthanded pitchers do better in TMobile Park, or something, there is still a ton of value that could be found by drafting, developing, and then trading lefthanders. As I’m sitting here writing this piece today; LHP Brandyn Garcia was just traded last night as part of the package for Josh Naylor.

Brown is a big-bodied southpaw at 6’5″/230lbs that started 15 games for Old Dominion this year. He could be similar to Garcia (who was 6’4″/235lbs) along his development path in that he’ll start for as long as he can, and then get moved to the bullpen once he gets closer to the big leagues.

#8.242 – RHP, William & Mary, Carter Lovasz

I first spotted Lovasz in 2024 when he was having a better year for W&M out of the bullpen. This year his numbers (mostly ERA and BB/9) took a big step backwards (SO/9 did tick up a bit to 13.4), and so I kinda stopped tracking him. But he signed with Atlanta for only $7500 in bonus money, which is very helpful to me.

The thing about mocking picks to Seattle…after they drafted some of the unknown pitchers they did, who didn’t have any particularly impressive stats…you’re pretty free to hunt traits in spin or break, etc, and not worry about stat lines.

#9.272 – LHP, Texas, Jared Spencer

In this particular spot; I need a slightly cheaper player than Jackson Steensma. Like, it’s only like $30-40k difference. In this case, I wasn’t intentionally looking for another LHP…I was prioritizing the signing bonus first. As a guy, like Steensma, who is coming off surgery (shoulder for Jared); Spencer only costs $165k, but arguably there’s more upside than with Steensma.

In the 10 starts Spencer made before surgery ended his season; he posted a 3.27 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, and 11.4 SO/9.

#10.302 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

IIRC, I toyed with drafting Davis in some of my mock drafts. I’m coming back to him now knowing where he was picked and how much he signed for. He kind of reminds me of the Lucas Kelly pick because you’re counting on player development. This is far from a finished product. In fact, he’s pretty rough around the edges. But I love the stuff and the athleticism from a big 6’5″/181lb frame. Obviously, you try to put some weight on him and get him stronger.

His bonus is $397,500.

#11.332 – C, Ballard HS, Truitt Madonna

Madonna is a prep catcher that is from Seattle (Ballard HS), but who somehow evaded me in the pre-draft process. But he’s a 6’3″/215lb kid that hit .279/.360/.872 with a couple HR in 43 AB’s in the MLB Draft League against primarily college players.

With Harry Ford potentially on the trade block; it felt like Seattle could fit in its next high school catching prospect.

Madonna signed for $654k as an 11th-round pick of the Padres. $504k of this bonus will count towards Seattle’s bonus pool.

#12.362 – RHP, Wofford, Carter Rasmussen

It’s a little tough to know for sure how Seattle plans on using some of their pitching draftees in terms of starting vs relief, so it’s tough to match one for one with them. Rasmussen was a reliever for most of his career, and in 19 apperances last year at Wofford posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, and 11.9 SO/9.

Rasmussen signed for $150k.

#13.392 – OF, Kent State, Jake Casey

I had Casey in my earlier mocks, and so I’m going to keep him over the likes of the late-round outfielders Seattle actually drafted in Aiden Taurek and Brayden Corn. I’m not totally sure what the appeal is on those guys. Corn had middling pop, decent basestealing, and middling plate discipline. Taurek had middling pop, middling basestealing, decent plate discipline. I’d say Casey has decent pop, decent basestealing, decent plate discipline.

He signed with Toronto for $150k.

#14.422 – C, Florida, Luke Heyman

I never put Heyman into my mock drafts, but looking at him after Seattle picked him; I kinda like the potential. He’s already one of the better defensive catchers in the class. The bat is kind of just solid across the board. The power isn’t extreme but he hit 13 HR, the plate discipline is neither extreme patience or overly swing-and-miss. This is a good range for a quality receiver that you hope to build the bat upon.

Heyman was Seattle’s only overslot bonus from rounds 11-20, so $80k of his signing counts towards the bonus pool.

#15.452 – RHP, Arizona, Casey Hintz

When I could, I kept Seattle draftpicks intact. In this case, I’m moving Hintz up a round cause that barely matters when there is no slotting. His bonus was and remains $150k. Seattle kinda drafted a bunch of weird, low-slot righthanders this year. I don’t know exactly why. My guess: they’re taking multiple stabs at finding the next Logan Evans. I’m trying to cut some of the fat, and trim that down to my favorite of the group, which was Hintz.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Seattle drafted some outfielders from pretty small schools in Brayden Corn from Western Carolina and Aiden Taurek from Saint Mary’s, so it doesn’t feel far-fetched to draft Thibodeaux. Thibs was one of the best hitters in the country last year and his signing bonus is $150,000.

#17.512 – RHP, Anthony Karoly

Karoly remains from Seattle’s actual draft. It’s tough to find video of Karoly throwing, but the statline is interesting: 4.18 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, and 16.9 SO/9.

#18.542 – RHP, Landry Jurecka

While prepping this story, I took a look at many of the late-round draftpicks from around the league that I hadn’t really taken a look at prior to the draft. Jurecka was one that I saw and liked. Jurecka split time between starting and relieving (10 starts, 5 relief appearances) and finished with a 3.21 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 9.4 SO/9 in the college season, and he also made three very strong starts in the summer Appalachian League where he gave up only 1 earned run across 14.0 innings.

#19.572 – RHP, Alabama, Braylon Myers

Myers was an undrafted player signed by the Cubs. He posted a 2.63 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 12.7 SO/9 in the SEC this year. Doesn’t have big present velo, but he can spin a breaking ball pretty well. If you can build him up to, even, 94-95mph; this could be a nice player.

#20.602 – CF, Dallas Baptist, Nathan Humphreys

One of the hardest cuts I had to make was pivoting off Seattle’s own pick of OF Korbyn Dickerson. I really like the potential for a power righthand bat that can stick in CF. Humphreys hits lefty, but otherwise has many of the same traits. He hit .353/.457/1.135 with 17 HR’s and 21 SB last year while playing elite defense. He went undrafted, so I have to guess at his signing bonus. I’ll just give him the max $150k.

All told, the top ten rounds of this draft class would have cost Seattle $16,482,900. Add to that an additional $584,000 from overslot deals in rounds 11-20; it brings the total cost of the bonus pool to $17,066,900 of the allowed $17,074,400. So I got it down to within $7500 of the bonus money. I kept it the same as Seattle in terms of pitchers to position players (13 to 8). I drafted a few more LHP than Seattle (5 to 3). I drafted a couple more high school players (4 to 2). From a position-player standpoint, I really only made one change where I drafted a 3B instead of a SS, but the SS in question was drafted in the 20th round and Scott Hunter was immediately talking about potentially converting him to a pitcher. And I even kept six of the exact same players as Seattle. Seattle drafted more guys that are 20-21 years old…I drafted more guys that are either 18 or 22 years old. I feel like this is a better balance than what Seattle actually did.

It will be fun to look back at this piece 3-4 years from now to see who actually had put together the better draft class.

Mariner mock revisions

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’ve just been digging around for draft intel and data and any kind of potential edge prior to Sunday’s first night of the MLB Draft, it occurred to me that I’ve missed one type of process point in my prior mocks.

The MLB has set up a rule wherein the players that attend the MLB Draft Combine and submit to the physical portion of the process will be guaranteed to be paid at least 75% of the slot bonus for whichever pick they’re chosen at. This somewhat limits MLB teams’ option to pay these players “underslot” deals. This is primarily beneficial for the senior college players that would otherwise have little negotiating power after using up their college eligibility. This was, specifically, relevant for two players in my most recent mock that I am going to adjust for here.

I’m also saying fuck it to acknowledging what I think Seattle will do. This is my taste and my structure of how best to hack this draft class. Seattle is potentially going to draft for “need” to an extent. Nothing that the MLB team needs right now is going to come from this draft, nor is anything in this draft going to overtake what is already in the minor league system. If we want players that will affect the 2026 roster; we need to trade prospects for major league players. This mock is simply, in my opinion, the best way to pick the best future MLB roster.

#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson

Seattle probably drafts one of the college LHP here, and that might be good for the eventual structure of their whole draft, but I just can’t get over how smooth and polished Carlson is with both the glove and the bat. He feels like one of the few guys at the top of this tepid draft top 10 that has true upside. He has so much body control…all we need is to see him get stronger and his pure current launch angle line drives will become homeruns.

Carlson is ranked #7 on the MLB board, so another part of the idea here is that we should sign him for under the $9.5mill bonus slot. I’ve budgeted him for $8mill.

#1.35cb – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes

Forbes might be the key to this whole draft. If he’s still on the board at #35; I struggle to see the Mariner pitching lab not latching on to him, even though they could start trying to take overslot high school players here. I think I may have reached a new understanding of how Seattle scouts pitching, and if I’m right…Forbes will be a guy they covet.

Forbes has college eligibility remaining, so he will still require a decent signing bonus. I’m giving him slightly below the slot of $2.75mill with a bonus of $2.5mill.

#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

Part of the reason I’m passing on the college LHP at #3 is because I think, longterm, Slawinski will be better than them. The only reason he isn’t a bigger deal right now is because of velo. But, also, what a contradiction that the #1 college LHP, Kade Anderson, has gotten there because of pitchability over velo, and yet, somehow, guys like Kruz Schoolcraft and Jack Bauer are ranked higher (#19 and #44) on the prep lefty board than Slawinski (#68) who has the better pitchability of those three. Whatever. Market inefficiency that I’m hoping to exploit.

Seattle signed Ryan Sloan away from his college commitment at pick #2.55 last year, and a bonus of $3mill. I’m doing the exact same figure for Slawinski at #57…$3mill. This equates to a top 32 pick bonus.

#3.91 – OF, Purvis HS, Jacob Parker

I started including this half of the Parker twins in my last mock, and I’m going to keep him here. I had tinkered with some prep righthanded power hitters; but I was struggling to justify the swing and miss on most of those specific players.

Parker, on the other hand, has one of the strongest overall profiles in my database for this prep class. He’s underrated in a lot of facets, but certainly his power is unquestioned. I’m offering him an overslot bonus of $1.22mill.

#4.122 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Taylor is one of the picks that I’ve had to adjust my drafting on. He is one of the guys that is a senior, but who is gonna be guaranteed at least 75% of the bonus for the slot where he’s picked. I’ve also moved him up a round because I think I had him underrated.

The slot for this pick is $617,200, so I’m giving him just over the 75% figure with a signing bonus of $465,000.

#5.152 – RHP, Baylor, Gabe Craig

In my previous mock, I had Seattle drafting Tennessee reliever Tanner Phillips who brings over a 100mph fastball and could move really fast to the show. Phillips is not a senior and would be guaranteed 75% of slot, so I just don’t know that I can afford him.

Craig is actually one of the highest-scoring pitchers in my entire 2025 college database. He is 24 years old and was not at the Draft Combine, so we can give him the full senior-sign treatment. Last year, Seattle used a couple of relievers (Hunter Cranton and Charlie Beilenson) to save bonus money in this same range of the draft. Those guys got $50k and $25k respectively. I’m not going that hard on Craig, and I can offer him $150k. This still saves Seattle ~$350k for other picks.

#6.182 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Smith is a longtime carryover from my previous mocks. He should be a true senior-sign player as a 22 year old who was not invited to the Combine.

As a lefthanded, power-hitting catcher that has good catch and throw tools; I’m super psyched to add him to the system.

#7.212 – RHP, Shawnee Mission HS, Michael Winter

Winter is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher coming out of Kansas with a really impressive present three-pitch mix. Similar to Slawinski; I love the pitchability more than the current velo. I think Seattle has struggled developing high school guys that come out of their senior year(s) with 97+ kind of velocity (Walter Ford comes to mind). I would like to try the opposite. Let’s draft guys that know how to pitch/spin and see if we can teach them to throw harder.

Winter has an unusual commitment to Dartmouth, but he did attend the Draft Combine, which may speak to an interest in signing if the price is right. I’m offering him $1.20mill, which correlates to approximately the #70 pick’s bonus.

#8.242 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a frequent returner to my mock drafts. I am adjusting his bonus to reflect his status as a guaranteed 75% senior from the Combine. I will give him $170k and work to come up with a program that can keep him healthy enough to continue to be a starter. If not…maybe he might thrive with a bullpen role.

#9.272 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Hawks is a return to the full-fledged senior-sign players. Another 22 year old, reliever-only, that was not at the Combine, we can sign him for basically whatever amount we want (and he agrees to). I’ve budgeted the very specific amount of $129,400.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

Depino falls, somewhat, victim to the MLB Draft rules that give very few options to a player of his age and the college he attended. He gets the smallest bonus of my top 10 rounds with only a $90k bonus.

#11.332 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

The 11th round is frequently one of the more interesting picks in a Mariner draftclass. It’s the first pick of the draft that doesn’t count towards their overall bonus pool. There is no penalty for not signing the player drafted here, while simultaneously, there is more talent still on the board here, obviously, than the 12th-20th rounds. You can draft an overslot guy here if you think you have savings, while not being overly concerned that this pick will affect the others.

Davis is a bit of a wildcard. He has never performed to a level that gives him a high floor. He’s a pretty pure upside pick. You’re hoping you can take his 97mph fastball from the left side, and his plus slider, and you can get him to throw more strikes with them. In 2025 in the SEC, Davis got hit around more than 2023 Mariner 12th round pick, Logan Evans. But Seattle saw enough in Evans to get him figured out to the point he has made it to the show in under two years. Evans was primarily a starter for Pitt, whereas Davis has only really pitched out of the bullpen in college, but Alton has currently made three starts in the MLB Draft League, so maybe there is an outside chance he continues doing that.

The bonus for all picks in rounds 11-20 is slotted for $150k. Teams can go over that figure, but all overages count toward their top 10 round pool.

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney

Most of the rest of this mock will match what I wrote last weekend. I’m not describing a specific bonus amount unless I expect the player to need overslot money.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

See previous mock.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

See previous mock.

#15.452 – RHP, Dax Dathe

In the days after my previous mock; a couple of things happened. I saw more video of Dax Dathe pitching in the MLB Draft League that looked pretty great, and my previous projected pick at #452, RHP Max Grubbs, announced that he is withdrawing his name from the draft to remain at Texas.

Cool. Easy one-for-one swap.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

See previous mock.

#17.512 – LHP, St Joseph, Colton Book

See previous mock.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

See previous mock.

#19.572 – LHP, Northeastern, Jordan Gottesman

After going away from the mock with the college LHP in the top pick; I made a choice to hunt for lefthanded college starters whenever I could. Gottesman doesn’t have some of the pitch metrics I think Seattle looks for, but he’s certainly had pretty strong results in the 2025 season. Across 83 innings he finished with a 2.27 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Maybe the performance staff can build up his strength and/or flexibility in order to tap into a bit more upside.

#20.602 – CF, UTSA, Mason Lytle

See previous mock.