Month: June 2026

Post-Combine Mariner mock draft

/ seattleseamocks / Leave a comment

By Jared Stanger

MLB has just finished up its annual amateur draft combine earlier this week, and we’re now two weeks out from day one of the 2026 Draft. The Combine brought to light some names I hadn’t studied closely (if at all), and reclarified some names I’ve had interest in off and on through this spring. So I thought I would put these names together in a new mock draft.

I’m still thinking the thesis of my last mock has some very strong grounding. Going into a potential MLB labor stoppage, and certainly some unknown changes under a new CBA; the 2026 Draft may be the league’s last chance to draft amateurs the way they currently can. It might be, not only the best way to hack this draft, but the best way to hack the next several years of drafts, is to go really hard this year on prep players. My goal is to find four prep players in this draft, and set up the timeline on another wave of player development.

I, personally, am still thinking that drafting prep LHP Carson Bolemon might be the best single pick the Mariners could make at #1.24. This, however, would be fairly unprecedented in the Jerry Dipoto era where the team has never drafted a prep pitcher higher than pick #55 overall. Plus, there is some national reporting that Seattle is specifically targeting a college pitcher, and another report talks about them looking to make an underslot pick that can help them finance overslot picks in later rounds. I don’t hate that.

So this mock is basically what it might look like to go underslot, college pitcher at #24, and then go hard on prep players thereafter.

#1.24 – RHP, UCLA, Logan Reddemann

Reddemann has had a pretty volatile spring…going from a guy looking at potential top 10 overall early in the season, then missing roughly six weeks at the end of the season with arm fatigue that dropped him down to late first to early second projection…after recently throwing a bullpen going about 90% at the Combine; he might be back on the rise up. I think this guy is maybe the second-best college pitcher in the class, so I’d be psyched to get him. He’s got a deep repertoire…he’s got velocity…he’s got control…if he was lefthanded, he’d be the perfect pick.

#2.65 – OF, Marist HS, Martin Shelar

The precedent for Seattle is really to look for prep, bat-first, lefthanded, shortstop types…which I was taking a long-hard look at. This draft has got some intriguing HS shortstops like Rocco Maniscalco, Will Plunkett, Taj Marchand. I actually really like that group. But as I watched some of the Draft Combine, I couldn’t help myself but to think, “is this the year to find a prep, righthanded, power-hitter?”

I’d previously been toying with the idea of Blake Bowen, but it was nearly impossible to repeat draft simulations where I could get him at #65. The Combine added some names with the same profile that could make it easier to plan for this strategy to be plausible. Guys like James Tronstein, Genson Veras, and Shelar. As I’ve dug into more of these guys, it has been Shelar that has risen to the top.

#3.101 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

Vigue was a guy I was picking in my earlier mock drafts, but as the college season progressed he had started to have some difficult outings where his control was betraying him, which led to him center-cutting too many pitches, that SEC hitting was crushing. The Combine was a good reminder of what he does bring to the table: a plus sinker and a plus sweeper combo. I think this is a guy the Mariner pitching lab will like, and more importantly he’s a guy that they could probably polish up. I’m happy to have him back in the mock.

#4.129 – RHP, UCLA Cal Randall

In 2018 the Mariners drafted a Logan in the first round and a Cal in the third round; so why not run it back to run it forward?? What could go wrong? And they both happen to come from the same UCLA team. Total serendipity.

Randall might have the most upside of any pure reliever in this draft. The fastball is already 100mph and he struck out 16.5 batters per nine innings for the season. This could be a fast mover through the minors.

#5.162 – SS, Magnolia Heights HS, Christian Doty

After passing on the shortstop options in the second round; I wanted to find one with sneaky upside and a lower bonus demand in the middle rounds. I think Doty might be perfect.

#6.191 – LHP, Stony Brook, Micah Worley

Worley has been on my LHP shortlist for a while, but when I saw him catching 98mph at the Combine; I was sold. Listed 6’5″/230lbs, Worley posted a 3.12 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 12.1 SO/9 and 4.0 BB/9 across 14 starts this year.

#7.220 – 1B/C, Miami, Alex Sosa

Sosa has been in my mocks before this, but in this version the fact that he has experience as a catcher becomes more relevant, as catcher has been sacrificed from the top ten rounds in favor of youth. Instead of a catcher in the top six rounds like I generally go for; in this mock I might end up going with quantity of catcher picks over quality.

#8.250 – RHP, Memorial HS, Cash Scarborough

I found Scarborough by sort of reverse-engineering the mock based on the bonus available, then scouting players that are projected to sign for that bonus amount in the simulator. Scarborough is a shorter pitcher listed 5’10″/190lbs. That seems too short, but Seattle did draft 5’11” Jurrangelo Cjintje in the first round two years ago. Marcus Stroman would be another hopeful comp.

The fastball is the current carry pitch for Cash and it has been up to 96mph with ride, and he also throws a promising slider.

#9.280 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier has been a longtime member of my 2026 mocks, but I keep having to push him down my board due to his age in order prioritize other players.

#10.310 – RHP, Olathe West HS, Max Hamilton

Hamilton is one of my favorite players in the last two mocks I’ve done. I love when you’re digging in crates and you find a hidden gem. Any bonus savings I have in the first nine rounds I would push towards Hamilton to secure him away from his college commitment.

#11.340 – RHP, Oregon State, Isaac Yeager

#12.370 – C, Notre Dame, Mark Quatrani

#13.400 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

#14.430 – OF, Xavier, Clay Burdette

#15.460 – OF, Miami Ohio, Tommy Harrison

#16.490 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

#17.520 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade

#18.550 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson

#19.580 – OF, Northeastern, Harrison Feinberg

#20.610 – 3B, Toledo Troy Sudbrook

Mariner three week away mock

/ seattleseamocks / Leave a comment

By Jared Stanger

There was a report that surfaced this week breaking down MLB’s plans to restructure the entirety of amateur player acquisition as part of the impending CBA expiration and subsequent renegotiating. A few of the major points of the proposal for the domestic draft:

-banning the drafting of prep players altogether, and effectively making draft eligibility start at a player’s age of 20.

-shortening the draft from 20 rounds to 12 rounds.

-cutting the available signing bonus pool by more than $150 million per year.

-hard-slotting the bonus amounts rather than the current system of suggested slot bonus.

I haven’t heard/seen anyone thinking these ideas are good outside of Rob Manfred who is acting on behalf of MLB owners. The idea of installing a draft in place of the international signing period is particularly inconvenient for the Mariners who are projected to sign three of the top international prospects, including Mairon De La Rosa, who Seattle recently sniped from the Yankees when their verbal agreement fell apart. Under the MLB proposal, the 2027 signing period (typically in January of each year) would disappear completely, to be replaced by a draft that would take place in September 2027. They would also raise the international age eligibility from 16 to 18, thereby making all of Seattle’s 2027 agreements ineligible until, at least, 2028.

None of the reported draft changes would affect the 2026 domestic draft. At least, that’s what I was initially thinking. But as I’ve spent some time dwelling on these proposals; it occurs to me that their leaking into the media and then into the common knowledge could actually affect this year. Players coming from the 2026 high school draft class may now be incentivized to sign with their drafting MLB team for higher bonus amounts in 2026, than to risk the possibility of a slashed bonus pool, if not a hard-slotted possibility, should a new CBA pass as proposed.

Savvy MLB teams may seek to take advantage of these conditions and look to stock up on prep players this year, before their option to do so goes away entirely or even changes towards more restrictive. The only thing within the MLB’s reported draft restructure that benefits the players themselves would be the change in eligibility for college players from “after three years of college” to “after two years of college”. That proposal, in concert with the recent change in NIL money for college athletes, may be enough to sway 2026 prep players into honoring their college commitments this cycle. But, as far as I can tell, college baseball players aren’t cashing in on NIL money like, say, college football players. At the high end of baseball NIL money, my research suggests elite baseball players are making more like a max of $500,000 a year. Multiply that times the required two-years in college; and an elite college player is looking at, maybe, $1,000,000 in college earnings. So any 2026 draft bonus north of a million dollars could be enough to get most prep players signed to their drafting team this summer. In theory.

With this in mind…will it be possible for Seattle to sign an elite prep player at pick #24 for a techinically underslot figure?? The suggested slot bonus for pick #24 is $3,818,700. Could the Mariners find themselves with more prep options willing to sign at that pick for, say, $3.2million? An underslot deal in the first round is particularly appealing for Seattle this year as they currently don’t have a large bonus pool available. The Mariners’ total bonus pool is $8,218,200, which is the seventh-smallest pool in MLB this year. Saving money in the first round will make it easier to double, triple, quadruple down on prep players for the entire draft.

As I did in my last mock draft; I am cross-referencing my theoretical draft plan with a simulated mock draft via Over-slot.com. Their program includes a bonus element, but that element is non-negotiable. So the dollar amounts listed could vary widely from eventual actual bonus amounts.

#1.24 – LHP, Southside Christian HS, Carson Bolemon

Maybe a week ago Keith Law published a mock draft with the Mariners taking Bolemon here. At the time, I found the pick somewhat unresearched, as Seattle has never drafted a prep pitcher higher than pick #55 in the Jerry Dipoto era. But, if my new overriding theory of this draft is true, in light of this week’s news; Seattle may very well be considering prep players of either discipline earlier and more often than they ever have before. And…said pick(s) may cost less than ever before, so it could be two birds with one stone.

Bolemon ticks a lot of boxes for Seattle at #24, but one of those is how rarely they will reach and draft underslot players with their first round picks. Kade Anderson wasn’t a reach last year, but they did end up getting him for an underslot figure. Bolemon is ranked the #23 player in the class by mlb.com. Getting him at pick #24 is appropriate value, and then the signing bonus is TBD. My theory is that Bolemon will sign for underslot, but my simulator mock budgets for him to get exactly slot. So we can handle either pathway.

As a player, Bolemon reminds me of a very specific pitcher. I’m not going to reveal who, but suffice to say he would make a great pick. The calling card for him here, for me, is the overall pitchability. With the asterisk being the future upside including the potential to add some velo.

#2.65 – 3B, Mill Valley HS, Beau Peterson

Part of the hack of the draft simulator is that they place a bonus floor on certain rounds, so it actually benefits your overall mock to draft a high bonus player in the second round. You can’t aggressively underslot this early. So I’m adjusting my strategy to go prep-prep with the first two picks.

Peterson has a really strong hit-tool in his high school season where he hit .535/.650/1.536 with 3 HR, and 26 SB. The interesting thing is that he was also the winner of the high school homerun derby last year. So there is power within, but he’s not selling out average to get to his power. That’s tremendous discipline for a teenager.

#3.101 – OF, North Carolina, Owen Hull

I’ve started to think Seattle might be targeting outfield help with one of their early picks. That thought has coincided with my tendency to recency bias players that excel in the various stages of the College World Series. Owen Hull has been one of the biggest stars in the CWS and has now led the Tar Heels to this year’s Finals. On the season, Hull has hit .398/.506/1.121 with 8 HR, 26 doubles, 85 RBI, 18 SB, 47 BB, and 44 SO. In 2024 and 2025, before his transfer to UNC, Hull stole 42 and 29 bases for George Mason. So there’s a bit more speed there than, perhaps, the 2026 season might suggest.

Hull could be a true centerfielder with leadoff hitter traits. The Mariners current outfield situation has Randy Arozerana a free agent at the end of this season, Victor Robles has a club option for 2027, Rob Refsnyder may not make it on the team through the end of this season, Luke Raley under club control through his age 33 season after 2028, Dom Canzone is also under control through 2028 when he will be only 30. On the farm…Laz Montes has now played exactly 64 games at the AA level in both 2025 and 2026, and has shown some improvement in the second stint (14 HR, 39 RBI in 2025 to 20 HR, 54 RBI in 2026), but he’s still maxing out at a .237 average at the level. Jonny Farmelo has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t exactly dominating at Everett the way a first round pick should. Yorger Bautista is only hitting .226 in Arizona rookie ball. If you compare those top 10 OF prospects to the Mariners top 10 SS prospects (Celesten .308/.409/.880 in Everett and Becker .271/.432/.890 in Arizona); the shortstops have the current edge in performance. This may point Seattle’s draft interests more towards reinforcing CF than SS early on.

In terms of Hull, specifically…I wonder if you don’t try to go more of the Colt Emerson route, which would be to target the bat-to-ball player, but then to add power during the development. Also like Emerson…Hull seems to have very high intangibles including leadership.

#4.129 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

There was a time in the middle of the college season that I had Vigue in every mock draft I did. He felt like a fourth round steal. But then he really seemed to scuffle over his last 5-6 regular season starts. In his start in the CWS Super Regionals vs Texas; I thought Vigue looked back to the form I saw from him at the beginning of the season. The foundation here is the sinker/sweeper combination which Vigue threw roughly 95% of the time this year. There are additional offerings in a cutter and a change that we really need to see more progress on.

#5.162 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Catcher is one of the positions I always try to include in the top six rounds of my mock drafts. Tayman is a nicely balanced hitter/defender at the backstop who can hit, hit for power, and throw. Down on the farm; Seattle’s top-ranked catching prospect, Luke Stevenson has regressed a bit in Everett after a hot start to his pro career in Modesto in 2025 where he hit .280/.460/.860 in 22 games. At Everett his line has dropped to .225/.410/.789 with only four homeruns in 50 games. There are no other catchers in the Mariners’ top 30 prospects. In previous mocks, I’ve had Seattle draft Texas catcher Carson Tinney in the second round. I don’t think that’s a crazy idea. Especially after Tinney was recently named the 2026 Division I catching Gold Glove winner. Tayman is a capable fallback plan.

Tayman hit .357/.447/1.119 with 18 HR for the year.

#6.191 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola

Coppola is a reliever by recent history, but I’m wondering/hoping if he doesn’t in fact have starter stuff. Either way, I think he is predominantly underrated on media big boards. I’m forcing his pick early to secure his services. Depending on the innings amount used to determine qualifiers; Coppola can be seen as the #1 pitcher in the country by SO/9. He had 16.6 to go with a 1.69 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, and 2.9 BB/9.

#7.220 – LHP, Texas, Luke Harrison

Harrison is a bit of a forced pick. I’m always looking for lefthanded pitching, especially starters, and Harrison looked pretty solid in his recent CWS start. Listed 6’2″/220lbs, Harrison has a season line of 4.10 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 10.8 SO/9, 3.8 BB/9. He definitely looks like a guy that needs a season or two at Gas Camp to maybe build him up to a bit more velo.

#8.250 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier continues to be in my mock since previous editions. Probably my favorite RHB in the college class. Being a senior-sign guy at 23 y/o is the only reason, I think, that he is available this late.

#9.280 – SS, HS, Christian Doty

From my favorite college RHB to my favorite prep RHB…Doty has probably my favorite swing and barrel rate of all the prep players. His future defensive position is probably a fair question, but that has also come in to play for previous Mariner prep shortstop picks like Cole Young and Colt Emerson that were drafted in the first round. That is one of the least important questions. If the bat plays; you will find a spot for him.

#10.310 – RHP, Oregon State, Isaac Yeager

For the longest time; it felt like the Mariners didn’t take drafting relievers seriously. That seemed to change, I want to say, two years ago when they really made a focused effort to draft quite a few high-value relievers. Some of those guys were quickly flipped in trades for MLB talent, but some (Charlie Beilenson and Brock Moore) are already at AA, which Seattle has frequently used as the true measuring stick for pitchers being MLB-ready (rather than AAA). I like this draft to, again, selectively take a couple fast-moving relief arms.

Yeager is a Seattle native, and I’d love for him to make his pro journey come through Everett, Tacoma, and Seattle. He’s a legit prospect coming from a pitching program in Oregon State that has ties to the Seattle player development program in the Beavers’ head coach Mitch Canham, the 2019 manager of the Arkansas Travelers. Yeager had a 2.04 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9.

This is what this half of the mock looked like in the simulator. Glitch in the program lists the Christian Doty pick as Tyler Albanese, but note the signing bonus coincides more with a prep player’s bonus.

#11.340 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

Carey would be tremendous value at this round. He hit .353/.428/1.050 with 15 HR and was a finalist for the college Gold Glove at shortstop.

#12.370 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong is one of the best righthanded power bats in the draft. He’s 6’4″/228lbs and hit .338/.453/1.211 with 24 HR in 56 games. He’ll turn 23 the week before the draft, which is the only reason he might fall this far.

#13.400 – C, Notre Dame, Mark Quatrani

Quatrani had a very strong year after transferring from Cornell to Notre Dame before this season. He hit .376/.457/1.100 with 15 HR. He doesn’t have the strongest throwing arm, but he’s a very good receiver.

#14.430 – RHP, LaTech, Declan Dahl

It’s tough to find depth starting pitching in the draft, so you kind of need to dig in crates of the smaller schools. Dahl is 6’3″/195lbs and pitched to a 3.54 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 2.5 BB/9.

#15.460 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade

Stade would be a nice little upside play as a lefty pitcher. He had a 4.36 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9. As of now his fastball is topping out at 92mph, but if we can add even 3mph to that; he could be at least a bullpen piece. I’m sort of picturing Brandyn Garcia who the M’s drafted in the 11th round in 2023 out of Texas A&M.

#16.490 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn

Horn is an overaged reliever without much velocity. So why draft him at all? The guy misses bats. He averaged 12.4 SO/9 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, and 3.2 BB/9. If everything goes right; he might be Cooper Criswell.

#17.520 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson

I really wanted to draft Taiwanese RHP Jui Chieh Lin with this pick, but I’m not really clear on his eligibility. He is currently pitching in the MLB Draft League but I don’t know if that is a de facto indication of draft eligibility.

I take Simmerson here instead, who may be poor man’s Cal Randall. He had a 3.62 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 in 32.1 relief innings for Clemson.

#18.550 – LF, Northeastern, Harrison Feinberg

I had a few outfielders that I liked at this pick, but I went with Feinberg because of how hard he plays on defense. This guy is a gamer. He hit .331/.440/1.037 with 16 HR and 42 SB for the year. He doesn’t even particularly read as that fast of a runner…but he seems to have that Josh Naylor feel for when to run.

#19.580 – RHP, Olathe West HS, Max Hamilton

Hamilton was the most last-minute addition to this mock draft. When I ran the simulator for the first ten rounds; using their pre-assigned bonus amounts; I had a surplus of $524,000 for all ten rounds. And that doesn’t factor that the Mariners may actually be able to get agreements for less than the simulator bonus amounts. If I can save another $326k on one or more picks; add that to my surplus, and add another $150k, which all picks in rounds 11-20 are allowed without penalty; I can offer another prep player a $1million signing bonus.

Hamilton is a bit of a two-way-player, but I like him on the mound. Listed 6’2″/208lbs, and there is something about his mechanics and his stuff that really speak to me.

#20.610 – 3B, Toledo, Troy Sudbrook

I like to backup my prep players in my mocks with college players at the same positions. It gives us a more developed option with which we can staff our farm teams throughout the summer as we release underdeveloping players from previous years’ drafts. Sudbrook hit .373/.467/1.132 with 11 HR, 32 doubles, and 13 SB. And he’s a solid defender at third.

Sudbrook has announced a commitment to Clemson in the transfer portal, but he will turn 23 y/o during the 2027 college season, so getting drafted may be the only thing he needs to stop him from setting foot on campus.

If Seattle can get Bolemon signed for closer to $3.5mill, and/or if they don’t manage to sign Doty in the 9th round…they will have enough signing bonus surplus to go after a prep player like Hamilton anywhere on day three of the draft and give him a seven-figure bonus. This may be the team’s last opportunity to draft prep players, so it makes so much sense to really try to stock up now.

Mariners one month away mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The MLB Draft will begin day one of picks on July 11th, the national draft writers are putting out more sourced mock draft reports, so I thought it might be time for a new 20-round Mariner mock.

Let us begin with some of the most recently published mock drafts from national writers.

Jim Callis from MLB.com wrote over the weekend that, “the Mariners are targeting the same college arms as the Cubs” after previously saying the Cubs team and farm needed pitching, “which could lead to college options such as (Liam) Peterson, (Hunter) Dietz, (Tegan) Kuhns or (Cade) Townsend.” And then Callis makes one college arm addendum: “in addition to (Cole) Carlon”. Of that group; Peterson, Kuhns, Townsend are RHP, and Dietz and Carlon are LHP. Callis, with Peterson and Dietz off the board, gives the M’s Kuhns at pick #24.

Keith Law in his mock draft from early this morning went another direction with his rumor: “I’ve heard Seattle as one of the few teams on high school pitching in the first round,” and then specifically cites Carson Bolemon, Logan Schmidt, or Brody Bumila. He doesn’t specifically state they are targeting LHP, but all three of the names he mentions are prep LHP. His last comment is that if not one of the prep LHP; Seattle will “probably” pick a player with an under-slot deal. A couple thoughts: 1) the M’s have never drafted a prep pitcher higher than Ryan Sloan and Sam Carlson both at #2.55. 2) the M’s rarely go underslot with their first pick. Kade Anderson was an underslot deal last year from the #3 overall pick, but he still got $8.8mill. This year; Seattle’s entire draft bonus pool is only $8.2mill for all of the first ten rounds. The idea of the M’s two preferred options being a prep pitcher (who will most-likely cost overslot money) or a player that will sign for underslot money are contradictory. With their very limited bonus pool this year; an underslot pick makes a ton of sense, but then why would they also be looking at expensive prep pitchers. None of this really tracks, to me.

The other national mock I looked at came from a group-effort from the staff at Just Baseball published yesterday. In the alternating mock from four writers; Conor Dorney ends up representing the Seattle pick, and he mentions the M’s on college pitching, and specifies Tegan Kuhns, Cole Carlon, Jack Radel, and with Kuhns off the board; he gives the M’s Cade Townsend.

So after three mocks, the names specifically mentioned for Seattle:

RHP Liam Peterson
LHP Hunter Dietz
2x RHP Tegan Kuhns
2x RHP Cade Townsend
2x LHP Cole Carlon
LHP Logan Schmidt
LHP Brody Bumila
LHP Carson Bolemon

If we sort of Venn-diagram the data points from these three mocks; obviously we’re focused on pitching.
73% of the name mentions are college pitchers.
55% of the mentions are LHP.
45% are RHP and also college RHP.
27% are college LHP.
27% are prep LHP.

The two biggest data sets are college and LHP. Which then points us towards the Venn of Dietz and Carlon. Dietz is off the board before pick #24 in all three of the aforementioned mocks. That leaves us with Cole Carlon.

Carlon is a 6’5″/230lb lefty that pitched ASU to a 3.87 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 14.3 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9 season line. He features a pitch mix that includes a fastball that has touched 100.7 mph, and a plus slider. There is also a curve and change with lesser present grades. When I watch Carlon; I see a bunch of Gabe Speier mechanically, but obviously Carlon has about 5 mph more velo, and has a full college season of proof of concept that he can start.

Honestly, of the names that have been reported; the two that I personally have been looking at are Cade Townsend and Cole Carlon. I also really like Logan Reddemann, but after he was shutdown by UCLA in April for “arm fatigue”; we’ve not seen him getting much draft buzz in the first round. The Mariners rarely give innings to their early-round pitching draftpicks in the summer of their draft; so I don’t think it’s beyond reason that they would draft a pitcher with a known current injury. Bryan Woo was drafted with a known injury, Brody Hopkins was iirc, to name a couple. But…those guys weren’t drafted in the first round. We can, perhaps, look to do this in a later round.

For now…I’m not too mad at the idea of blending some national reporting on Mariner interests with my own eval. Carlon ticks a lot of boxes. If Seattle were to look at one of the prep LHP (and even throw Gio Rojas in there); I think I might go with Carson Bolemon. Bolemon has the least velo of the three, but probably the best pitchability, and then I just really get the sense he’s a whip-smart, mature for his age young man. He feels like a Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Ryan Sloan kind of personality.

In financial terms on Carlon…I have him in the simulator signing for $3.5mill, which would technically qualify as underslot the $3.8mill allowed for pick #24.

#1.24 = LHP, Arizona State, Cole Carlon

As I just alluded to; I see no reason not to project the Mariners will draft a pitcher with current, known arm injury. Their previous years of pitchers picked in the top two rounds will sit out the remainder of the 2026 summer and fall, with the Mariners overseeing their entire offseason and spring ramp-up.

Jacob Dudan is one of the names that qualify for this. Dudan was shut down by NC State on, roughly, April 4th, and he had Tommy John surgery on April 29th (per his own twitter). He will be down and in recovery for a minimum of a year, which could still see him make his professional debut in 2027. The other thing to consider is the shape of the Mariner’s organization for starting pitching. We literally have a six-man rotation in MLB as of today. Kade Anderson is, arguably, MLB-ready in AA right now. Ryan Sloan is also in AA, but showing some growing pains and needing more time. Logan Evans is on the IL, but still has some upside once he’s back healthy. And, if you’re a psycho for watching prospects like me, LHP Mason Peters has a sub-2.00 ERA across his first ten starts at low-A ball after being picked in the 4th round in 2025 (and also sitting for the summer after he was drafted).

This sounds like an over-abundance of riches in our starting pitching…why am I mocking two pitchers to start this mock? Because I basically just named every starter in the organization that has more than four starts and an ERA under 4.00. (Also: Evan Truitt 3.88, Colton Shaw 3.91, Nico Tellache 3.28, Dylan Wilson 1.86) The Mariners barely have any other starters ranked in their top 30 prospects (Griffin Hugus – yet to pitch, Teddy McGraw – now reliever, Michael Morales – third year in AA, Chia-Shi Shen – struggling in A-, Marcelo Perez – relief, Grant Knipp – relief, Robinson Ortiz – relief, Po-Chun Lin – mediocre in rookie ball, Charlie Beilenson – relief, Tyler Cleveland – relief, Lucas Kelly – relief, Jackson Steensma – injured).

Now…why do I see Seattle making a big, early round investment in Dudan knowing his health status? This guy screams Mariner pitching lab, to me. Listed 6’2″/191lbs, Dudan was touching 99mph this Spring on the sinker while also featuring a plus slider that borders on sweeper from his low-slot release.

Before his injury, Dudan had posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, 11.2 SO/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in eight starts. I like that Dudan has a three-year sample of pitching in the ACC where he improved his control each year. And in 2026 he made the biggest improvement while also moving from the bullpen into a starting role. This just feels like a Seattle project.

#2.65 – RHP, NC State, Jacob Dudan

In recent years, Seattle has rarely drafted a prep player after the first two rounds with the expectation of signability. Nick Becker pick #57, Ryan Sloan pick #55 were second rounders. Before that: Aidan Smith pick #124 in 2023, Ashton Izzi pick #126 in 2022, Tyler Gough pick #276 in 2022, Michael Morales pick #83 in 2021. That’s it for the last six drafts. So it’s a little bit contrary to their trends to project any prep players from here forward. But I kinda like waiting to do it. Waiting to go prep player this year is additionally tricky due to our low draft bonus amount. We can, basically, draft four players that we can offer over a $1.00 mill bonus to, as long as the rest of our draft kind of focuses on “senior-sign” types that we can give minimal bonuses to.

As I said earlier; I’ve been running simulations for the Mariners this year, and the primary simulator available online includes a bonus element. The program essentially gives every college player ranked after the top 300 prospects a default bonus of $150k. MLB teams can technically give a player a bonus as low as they want (that the player agrees to), but I actually like giving them a floor of $150k. I mean, do you really want to draft a guy that is willing to sign for $25,000?? The chances of that player panning out are slim to none, and the difference between doing that and giving a three-year, living wage type bonus to a guy that has SOME upside is, like, $100k. Just do better accounting. And the Mariners have been, more or less, following this philosophy recently. In 2025, the M’s gave a minimum bonus of $50k to any single draftpick (17th round), and a minimum of $100k to all of their picks in the top 10 rounds. They gave bonuses of exactly $150k to six picks (rounds 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 20).

The advantage of pushing prep players down to later rounds is that you can end up getting an appropriately ranked/drafted college player in the early rounds AND still getting a higher ranked prep player in a later round and just pay them the bonus of an early round pick. This, in theory, means we can get five top 100 players when we only have three picks in the top 101 overall (for example). The disadvantage of this strategy is that some prep players want BOTH the signing bonus money and the symbolic meaning of being an early round pick. You have to know your board and prenegotiate which players will still sign from a later round pick.

The most recent example of this was Aidan Smith in 2023. Smith was ranked the #78 overall player on the MLB big board. Seattle drafted him at pick #4.124, and they signed him for $1.2mill when slot money was $531k.

The other thing to consider in the prep player conversation is simply how terrible Seattle has been at developing the prep pitchers they have drafted over the years. Like, all of MLB kinda has trouble developing prep pitchers, but Seattle definitely has zero hits doing it in the Dipoto era. So it’s just terrible ROI to do it. Now, do they have a better argument about developing prep HITTERS? Certainly it feels like they have a stronger argument this year when Cole Young and Colt Emerson are representing 50% of their MLB infield, and Julio Rodriguez was developed from his teenage signing as an international player.

With all of these factors in mind; I like the way the board lines up this year to have select spots across the draft where I’m filling gaps in my college board with overslotted prep players. And those happen to be more of the hitting variety.

The first prep player I’m drafting is Mill Valley 3B, Beau Peterson. It’s not always easy to find prep players’ season stats, but I think I have a fairly accurate listing of Peterson’s season as: .535/.650/1.536 slash with 3 HR, 26×29 SB, 28 BB, and only 5 SO. I thought he was gonna have a better power number as he has previously won a high school homerun derby in one of the HS exhibitions. Regardless, I’m happy to draft the hit tool and look to add some game power.

#3.101 – 3B, Mill Valley HS, Beau Peterson

The fourth round is an interesting pivot point for me. I lowkey think we need to add another starting pitcher because those names dry up quickly after this if we don’t. But that would make three SP in our first four picks…should it be a bat for balance? The Mariners rarely target balance in their drafts. They will go hard on SP if the draft calls for it. They will draft three or four prep bats if the class and their bonus pool allow for it. Those logical thoughts don’t necessarily come into play like we think they might.

Having said all that…when I ran the simulation; I found the most exciting player consistently available to draft at this pick is actually a reliever.

#4.129 – RHP, UCLA, Cal Randall

Cal Randall is a thickly built 6’4″/235lb righthander that pitched in 34 games in 2026 where he posted a 3.19 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 16.5 SO/9, 5.5 BB/9. He actually gives up more walks than he does allow hits for the year. He works primarily from a double-plus fastball that touches 101mph, and has exceptional metrics in terms of release height, extension, IVB, etc. He also throws a change-up and a slider. If the pitching lab can do similar for Randall what they’ve done for Brock Moore (5.8 BB/9 as senior at Oregon, 3.0 BB/9 between Everett and Arkansas in 2026); they’ve got a future closer on their hands. And a quick mover through the minors.

At this point of the draft; my board suggests we can really start rolling through some underrated, high upside college bats. I think you always want to draft a catcher in the top six picks, or so, and that ends up lining up nicely to be my first pick in this stretch.

#5.165 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Tayman is listed 6’2″/210lbs, and has a really nicely balanced skillset as hitter and receiver. He is only 20 years old, but has two years at Cal Berkeley before this year at Poly where he hit .357/.447/1.119 with 18 HR, 19 doubles, 31 BB, and 50 SO. He was the central figure in the Mustangs roster that made a run in the College World Series in the last couple weeks.

#6.191 – OF, Pitt, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier is just one of my favorite bats in this whole draft. Listed at 6’5″/215lbs, Carrier hit .387/.534/1.318 with 20 HR, 15 doubles, 6×6 SB, 57 BB, 62 SO on the year. The only reason he is hypothetically available this late is that he is already 23 years old as of May, and maybe he’s limited defensively.

#7.220 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola

Honestly, I’d be a little surprised if Coppola was available this late. He’s a 6’5″/230lb righthander that primarily pitched in relief in 2026, but who had 25 starts for Rutgers between 2023-24, and recently made a three-inning start for Trenton in the summer MLB Draft League. There may be a chance he goes back to starting, which is a big part of why I want him after choosing to draft a reliever over a starter in the 4th round.

In 2026, Coppola finished with a 1.69 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, 16.6 SO/9, and 2.9 BB/9 in 12 relief apperances and one start for St Joseph’s.

#8.250 – 1B/C, Miami, Alex Sosa

I’m acknowledging Sosa has experience as a catcher, but every time I watched the Hurricanes from, say, March until their season ended in the CWS regionals; Sosa was playing 1B. If Alex still has some catching innings left him that’s an awesome bonus cause he hits lefthanded, and that is always a nice commodity to have. Listed 6’1″/208lbs, Sosa hit .338/.448/1.119 with 18 HR, 16 doubles, 41 BB, 48 SO for the year. If he ends up only playing 1B…fine. He has the power to be a decent weapon (a la Josh Naylor) as a 1B.

#9.280 – SS, Magnolia Heights HS, Christian Doty

The Mariners have had some of their best draft success going after prep shortstops, and so I have them drafting another one (with some hidden value being available late in the draft) in Doty. Listed at 6’1″/190lbs, Doty has one of my favorite righthanded hit tools in this class. He comes from Olive Branch, Mississippi which may sound familiar to Seahawk fans who might recognize Olive Branch as the high school origin of former Seahawk, KJ Wright.

Again, stat lines on prep players can be hard to find, but I show Doty’s 2026 season as: .492/.609/1.351, 6 HR, 20×20 SB, 27 BB, 10 SO. He has a college commitment to Ole Miss, so we will of course need to give him overslot money. The simulator I use doesn’t allow you to alter the bonus money offers to players, so the screenshot below will show him at an even $1.0mill bonus, but you will also be able to note that I finished the top ten picks with $310k of surplus…all of that will also go to Doty to bring his bonus up to $1.3mill.

There is a glitch in this mock draft simulator where most of the rankings after like #250 have duplicate names. So there are two players that are listed as #386 on the simulator big board, Christian Doty and Tyler Albanese. The correct player shows up as the simulation rolls (see directly below), but then it is the other player at the conclusion of the draft, which I also show further down.

#10.310 – RHP, Oregon State, Isaac Yeager

Oregon State had a really nice pitching staff this year, and I seriously considered multiple names from their team across this whole mock. I like LHP Ethan Kleinschmit in the 2nd or 3rd round, I like RHP Eric Segura in the 4th round slot where I took Randall. I like reliever Wyatt Queen wherever we can get him.

I ended up only mocking Yeager, but I’m really happy to get him. He’s a former UW Husky who originally comes from Bishop Blanchet HS in Seattle, so this will be a homecoming for him. Listed 6’6″/255lbs, Yeager looks more like a Husky tightend than a reliever, but he had a 2.04 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9 for the year. He throws a fastball sitting 95mph, and a plus slider as his out-pitch.

Here is the screenshot of my simulation run of the top ten round picks.

#11.340 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

With the signing of Christian Doty potentially a question mark; it’s important that we draft another shortstop that we know we can sign because, ultimately, we still have to fill a farm system with players that can play innings for the next three years, or so.

I actually really like Carey. He’s one of three college SS this year that I found that I really ended up liking for their on-field skills and intangibles. There was Tyson Leblanc who was the clutchest hitter for the Kansas squad that made a deep run in the CWS, and who is now projecting to be off the board before pick #65. There was Jake Schaffner who played SS for North Carolina and who has a really nice glove. And there is Carey who seems to be the one with the lowest profile that we can still get outside of the top ten rounds.

Carey hit .353/.428/1.050 with 15 HR, 16 doubles, 21 BB, 49 SO this year. He also plays a very solid defensive SS.

#12.370 – C, VMI, Cole Raile

Even if Alex Sosa ends up playing some catcher; I don’t think it’s terrible for Seattle to draft three. They end up being useful trade pieces. Seattle drafted three catchers in 2025 (Luke Stevenson, Luke Heyman, Grant Jay) and have already traded Heyman to Boston in the Alex Hoppe deal.

Raile is really an interesting player. He’s one of the more athletic catchers you’re going to find. He has power (16 HR), he has a great arm (33% caught stealing), and he can run (24×26 SB). We probably can’t get him this late, but c’est la vie.

#13.400 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong is another guy I have no clue of his true value. Most draft boards don’t even list him, which could mean he’s lower than top 500 names, but he hit .338/.453/1.211 with 24 HR, 14 doubles, 35 BB, 54 SO, so why wouldn’t MLB teams want him at decent price? Like, this isn’t a profile of a guy that is selling out strikeouts to get to his power. He’s a little overaged in that he will be 23 the week before the draft, but that’s a minor issue in my opinion if the upside holds, and he moves fast.

#14.430 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson

Simmerson was a recent find for me and I’m wondering why he’s not ranked higher, but whatever. I don’t make the rules and I don’t make the bugs. Simmerson is listed 6’2″/205lbs and had a 3.62 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 with 4 saves in 19 relief appearances.

#15.460 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade

It’s always good to look for depth lefthanders, especially if they can start. Stade had a 4.36 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9 in ten starts and four relief appearances. The peripheral numbers are better than the ERA.

#16.490 – RF, Miami Ohio, Tommy Harrison

Harrison had a massive season playing in the MAC this year, but he’s showing his flaws after 16 plate appearances in the MLB Draft League. In the college season he hit .386/.507/1.205 with 17 HR, 16 doubles, 41 BB, 33 SO.

#17.520 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn

Horn is an interesting profile. He’s listed 6’4″/200lbs and had a 3.21 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, 12.4 SO/9, 3.2 BB/9. He doesn’t have much velo, but he does enough with movement and deception that he strikes guys out. His ceiling might be kind of a Cooper Criswell profile, but that’s well worth the pick this late.

#18.550 – LF, Northeastern, Harrison Feinberg

When I discovered Feinberg I really liked his game. Listed 6’1″/210lbs, he hit .331/.440/1.037 with 16 HR, 15 doubles, 42 SB, 37 BB, 52 SO. And the guy plays all out on defense.

#19.580 – RHP, Seton Hall Prep, JJ Drennan

With the structure of this draft; you basically need to draft a prep player late like this as a guy you can offer big money to in case one of your prep players from the top ten rounds falls through and you end up with a bunch of surplus bonus money. I figure it’s better to try this move with a prep pitcher than hitter because of the Mariners’ reputation for developing pitching. Drennan is from New Jersey and has a commitment to Boston College. Neither of those is known as a hotbed for baseball talent, so there might be a bit more flexibility to sign him away from his college commitment.

#20.610 – 3B, Toledo, Troy Sudbrook

Sudbrook is 6’3″/205lbs and hit .373/.467/1.132 with 11 HR, 32 doubles, 13 SB, 30 BB, 40 SO. Seattle doesn’t really draft and develop third basemen, they prefer to draft shortstops and convert them, so I like drafting one with the knowledge he already is a 3B.

I’m currently pretty happy with this mock. It’s fairly balanced, which I generally like even though Seattle will never necessarily force a balanced draft.

I predominantly think the best players available in the first round are pitchers…either prep or college. I would love a Logan Reddemann pick.

I think there are interesting options in the second round. I love Texas catcher Carson Tinney, but a second round catcher feels rich with Cal Raleigh in the bigs and a Luke Stevenson pick in the second last year. I think prep outfielder Blake Bowen would be super interesting as a guy built like a linebacker but who can hit, run, and throw at elite levels.

I really like LHP Ethan Kleinschmit if he falls to the third round.

I really like a number of college RHP starters in the fourth round including Declan Dahl, Eric Segura, Cal Scolari, Josh McDevett, and maybe Dylan Vigue if the Seattle pitching lab can fix him. Also a Minnesota RHP named Isaac Morton, who also I believe has needed TJ surgery recently.

I like a number of prep pitchers at various rounds. I like LHP Carson Bolemon a lot. I like Kaden Waechter, who reminds me a bit of Bryan Woo. I like Kaiden McCarthy who is a 17 year old that reclassified to the 2026 draft, and likely WANTS to sign, and who already is touching 99mph. I like Washington prep pitcher Eli Herst. I like a guy named Harrison Pollina, who isn’t even on the list of over 1000 players within the simulator I used.

And there are so many college bats I like that kinda feel like they fall in the no-man’s-land areas between Seattle picks, but don’t seem worthy of a reach, but also don’t seem likely to drop to the next round’s pick. Andrew Williamson, Ace Reese, Logan Hughes, Caden Sorrell, Tyson Leblanc, Gavin Grahovac, Dee Kennedy, etc. But when I like my later round guys as much as those top, say, 125 names…I just would rather take the pitcher early because I don’t have the midround pitching names that I like as much. So this is where I end up.