By Jared Stanger
We’re on the eve of the NFC and AFC Championship games and I’ve got another 7-round mock draft for the Seahawks. The big, new development is that this time it actually IS 7 rounds. In previous incarnations we stopped at 6 rounds as it was believed Seattle had lost their 7th round pick in exchange for acquiring John Reid from the Texans. That was a conditional trade and it turns out the conditions were not met. So Seattle keeps pick #238 (or so).
A few things that I’m thinking about going into this draft:
- QB
Geno Smith is still a bridge QB. The bridge may last 1.5-3 years, but he’s still a placeholder for a young, stud QB. Building a Super Bowl roster around a QB on a rookie deal is a legit thing. Pete Carroll, in his end of season press conference, said, “The quarterbacks in this draft are extraordinary players…you don’t get opportunities like this…we are really tuned in to all of those options.” This was on January 16th or 17th…days after the Seahawks’ season ended and weeks before NFL Combine and college pro-days, and NFL personnel departments really bring their college evaluations in to their coaching staffs. But Seattle is already all over this QB class. You can’t overlook these things.
You can’t overlook PCJS’ history of over-correcting. When things have gone wrong in player evaluations (free agent, trade, draft) in the past; Seattle has often over-corrected. Whether that means drafting cocky players that in time become combative/argumentative with coaching staff, taking draft risks on players red-flagged for injury or character, or giving too much power and cap space to a QB. We HAVE to consider what Seattle is currently reacting to. They are reacting to Russell Wilson. They are reacting to getting beat by a Brock Purdy led Niner team. They are reacting to three final four teams running out rookie deal QB’s. I don’t doubt that the team has sincere interest in retaining Geno Smith…I do have doubts that their interest, and Geno’s self-estimation of his newly earned worth, are cohabitable.
Look at Pete’s comment…”you don’t get opportunites like this”…it can only mean one thing: a top 5 pick. They think that is a special occurrence, and that occurrence is an opportunity in a sentence, a thought about quarterbacks. The closest they’ve come to top 5 was their very first year in Seattle when they drafted Russell Okung at #6 overall. Quarterbacks drafted that year: #1.1 Sam Bradford, #1.25 Tim Tebow, #2.48 Jimmy Clausen, #3.85 Colt McCoy, followed by Mike Kafka, John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton, Rusty Smith, Dan LeFavour, Tony Pike, Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson. A real who’s-who of QB play.
We HAVE to consider it a special circumstance to have a top 5 pick AND that there are “extraoardinary players” (plural) available at QB in this class. That’s the Pete Carroll part. The John Schneider part is: “yeah, but is one of those extraordinary players going to be available at a discounted draft price?” Maybe that means Anthony Richardson cause his numbers are terrible and he is clearly not ready. Maybe that means Hendon Hooker because of his age and current injury status. Or maybe there is simply someone that slides because of numbers and needs of the other teams. This is the biggest question of this draft, to me. Do you have to spend pick #5 to get your QB?
- DE
The other thing that becomes very apparent looking at the field of Championship games teams is that each have superstars along their defensive lines. Three of the top four sack-producers of the 2022 regular season are still playing tomorrow (Bosa, Reddick, Jones). And the Eagles have four of the top 15 individual guys. Cincinnati had a down year from Trey Hendrickson (#30), but he’s been a 13-14 sack guy multiple times before. Bosa and Reddick are upper 1st round guys, Jones was early 2nd, and Hendrickson represents the roughly 25% of elite passrushers drafted in the 3rd-5th round range (Judon-5, Highsmith-3, Crosby-4).
So, I continue to feel like the Seahawks two first round picks should be at DE and at QB. But in which order? I honestly don’t know. I tend to think Tyree Wilson and Hendon Hooker would be special, but I could understand teams balking at Hooker. Maybe Seattle sees Will Levis and Zach Harrison as the way to go. I’m going to stick with what I’ve been sticking with, but I’m less sure of it than I was two weeks ago.
If I’m not going QB at #5; I’m going to trade down slightly with a team that wants to go QB early. Maybe that’s Carolina at #9. But I prefer the shorter drop-back by trading with Las Vegas at #7. We’ll do #5 for #7 + #70. I like the trade down here because there are potentially three very similar DE all bunched together in Myles Murphy, Tyree Wilson, Lukas Van Ness. It’s a little reminiscent of the 2022 draft at OT where you were sitting there with thoughts of getting one of Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, and Charles Cross. Only that was at #9. This year, even with a trade back, you’re looking at #7.
#1.7 – DE, Tyree Wilson
He’s long, he’s strong, and he’s down to get some passrush on. I’ve been on Tyree since August and he’s only risen since then, but I’ll keep plugging him in until he’s off the board. And then I’ll pivot to Lukas Van Ness who has a strikingly similar profile (only younger). Murphy would be 3 of 3 for me from this mini-cluster.
#1.29 – QB, Hendon Hooker
I would really like to have three 2nd round picks, so another trade down here will give a bit more ammo to add to the 2nd round later on. This trade is, ironically, with Denver, who hold the Niners’ first rounder (via Miami). We will give #20 + #151, and Denver will also send pick #69.
(This pick is contingent upon signing a QB in free agency to a 1-2 year deal. Maybe that’s Geno. Maybe that’s Drew Lock. Maybe it’s one of the MANY QB that are headed to free agency, which hopefully drives the market down. I’m talking a year of Andy Dalton, or Jacob Brissett, maybe Sam Darnold.)
There are two QB in this draft that I feel are legit room-tilters, and Hendon is my preferred of the two. It’s all about the ball.
#2.37 – DL, Keion White
This is the first big deviation from previous mock drafts. I think Keion is going to be an ascending player throughout this draft cycle. He’s 6’5″/286lbs, racked up 14.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 2 hurries this year, and he’s possibly still just learning to play the position after starting his college career as a 235lb TE, missing all of 2020 due to Old Dominion having no season during Covid, and missing most of 2021 due to an offseason injury sustained playing pickup basketball. His 2022 tape has evidence that he can play DE, DT, and maybe even some LB. Super athletic. And kinda nasty.
At this point Seattle is sitting with one more pick in the 2nd, and three in the 3rd. I’m going to package #69 and #83 and trade up into the 2nd with Detroit who own pick #48 and #55. Value works out perfectly for the #48.
#2.48 – OC Joe Tippmann
It has been very tough to isolate a Center to target this draft. I don’t think there’s any sure-fire, year 1-2 Pro Bowl types. I think there’s, instead, a collection of high-floor, reliable starter caliber guys. The center dujour right now is Wisconsin’s Joe Tippmann. Listed 6’6″/317lbs, Tippmann comes from a long line of quality Wisconsin OL and centers. He’s reportedly very athletic.
#2.52 – TE, Tucker Kraft
This is a pick that I really came to pretty recently, and it comes from a couple thoughts: 1) draft best player available, 2) draft from the strength(s) of the draft class. I don’t think TE is a big need for the Seahawks right now. All three of their 2022 guys are under contract to be back next year. They all performed pretty well last year. I just think it’s good drafting to do this.
Tucker Kraft is not the 1st TE on most boards. He might not be the TE4 for most teams. What he is is a guy I think can surprise some people. Hell, Travis Kelce was TE5 in 2013. George Kittle was TE9 in 2017. The found/added value of having a stud TE in the NFL is basically giving you an extra roster spot for a near-Pro Bowl caliber player.
At this point I realize I need another pick as two late 3rd’s will be more useful than one early 3rd. There’s a pretty tidy little deal that can be done with the Giants where #70 gets us back #89 and #100 from the comp pick section.
#3.89 – LB, Dorian Williams
I’ve said on twitter recently that center and off the ball linebacker are counterparts this year. They are groups of high-floor, possibly low-ceiling types of guys. Dorian is one that ticks a lot of boxes for me. We’re looking for the 2022 Fred Warner. Williams goes 6’2″/230lbs and racked up 131 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 7 PBU, 2 INT, 2 FF last year as the heart of the 12-2 Tulane defense.
#3.100 – RB, Roschon Johnson
Roschon is like an attempt to find a counterpoint to the style of Ken Walker. A little bit of the idea of a Chris Carson type. He’s 6’2″/222lbs, averaged almost 6.00 ypc on 93 carries backing up Bijan Robinson. 14 catches, a couple of kickoff returns, 5 tackles on special teams. Kinda guy you’d be psyched to have on your bench.
#4.122 – LB, Yasir Abdullah
Abdullah is a guy that, on tape, seems to play upwards of 90% of snaps at the LOS, rushing the passer. And he’s very good at doing that. But I’m pretty interested in adding him and seeing if you can cross develop him to play off the ball. He’s 6’1″/242lbs and posted 14.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 7 hurries, 2 INT, 4 PBU, 4 FF last year after a 10.0-sack season in 2021.
#5.154 – CB, Darius Rush
This is a very good class of CB’s. Again…draft from the positional strengths of the class. If you were to tell me that Seattle drafts one earlier this year than they ever have in the PCJS regime I’d not be shocked. There are a few I’d pull the trigger on. But there’s also the thought of steering into the CB depth of this class and seeing what you can pull (again) from the 5th round. There are a few big, long CB getting no buzz right now including Julius Brents, Rezjohn Wright, and Darius Rush. I’m going Rush for some of the intangible things I see in him. He’s listed 6’2″/200lbs with 2 INT, 7 PBU last year.
#6.197 – DS, Jason Taylor II
This is one of my personal, “pound the table” guys this draft. He checks a lot of boxes for me. I think it’s important that Seattle strengthens the safety group as something may need to be done about the amount of cap allocated there, that doesn’t really match the production provided. Taylor is 6’0″/215lbs and has tremendous versatility at the safety spot, and will, at minimum, be an immediate contributor on special teams.
#7.238 – DL, Dante Stills
Pete Carroll said they need to make more competition along the DL, so we spent the first pick there, and now the last pick there. Stills might have been better off turning pro when he had more buzz last year, but he stayed in school and kinda got lost in the shuffle of 2022. But he’s a 6’4″/285lb versatile DL that owns the WVU career record in TFL.
Final draft:
#1.7 – DL, Tyree Wilson
#1.29 – QB, Hendon Hooker
#2.37 – DL, Keion White
#2.48 – OC, Joe Tippmann
#2.89 – TE, Tucker Kraft
#3.89 – LB, Dorian Williams
#3.100 – RB, Roschon Johnson
#4.122 – LB, Yasir Abdullah
#5.154 – CB, Darius Rush
#6.197 – DS, Jason Taylor II
#7.238 – DL, Dante Stills
Seattle Seamocks 