By Jared Stanger
The MLB Draft begins five days from today, and we actually have some new intel to use when attempting to predict what the Mariners will do. Mariner Director of Amateur Scouting, Scott Hunter, held his annual media huddle a few days ago and gave some surprisingly candid answers about how Seattle is evaluating this draft class.
“Because we do have a lot of pitching…I don’t think we’re in any area that we say we ‘need’ but maybe, if anything, maybe some college outfielders or high school outfielders that fit the next wave.”
JFC…not only did he go as far as to say hitters, but he kind of led with college hitters, and then went even further to specify college outfield hitters. That’s crazy to be that transparent. This could be a few things:
- Hunter could be trying to misdirect people away from their true interest(s). I kinda don’t think this is it, because when you look at the Mariner major league roster combined with their top prospects on the farm…they have literally six starters in their MLB rotation, plus an injured Logan Evans who has big league innings, plus Kade Anderson who is MLB-ready now, plus Ryan Sloan who may be ready by September-ish. Then, Seattle has two young middle infielders on the MLB starting lineup with promising early returns and tons of club control, plus Michael Arroyo recently promoted to AAA, plus Felnin Celesten tearing up high-A. The thing Seattle really needs is a bat or two that can eventually join Julio Rodriguez in the major league outfield as Randy Arozerana heads to free agency immediately, and Luke Raley and Victor Robles expire soon thereafter. The outfielders on the farm basically start and end with Lazaro Montes (also just promoted to AAA), and Jonny Farmelo whose multiple injuries have slowed his development.
- Hunter could know that picking as late as #1.24, subterfuge really won’t make much of a difference to what the league and the Mariners will do.
- Hunter could see that there are enough players of a similar scouting grade that they won’t lose a particular player before pick because they don’t have a particular player they are targeting.
- The Mariners may have in mind to overdraft a player from farther down the consensus board in order to sign him for underslot money, which can then be redirected to other players in later rounds.
- Some combination of multiple ideas on this list.
It’s probably #5.
Regardless of reasoning; I thought it might be worthwhile to at least indulge this idea and see what a mock draft might look like with the Mariners looking to draft for need in the first round.
I’ve seen at least two mocks released in the last 48 hours that have the Mariners drafting a college outfielder, including Keith Law who has them drafting Virginia outfielder AJ Gracia. I typically don’t see Gracia available at #24, so I kinda doubt it. I’d like the pick, but I just don’t think he lasts. The other draft I saw had them picking Texas outfielder Aiden Robbins. Not a terrible pick. I like that Robbins is righthanded, and the Mariner farm seems to go heavily lefty-hitting. Righthanded hitting is certainly what the Mariner big league roster needs. Or at least someone that can hit lefthanded pitching well. I think I have some righthanded bats coming up later on that allow me to go with my preferred OF name at #24.
#1.24 – OF, Texas A&M, Caden Sorrell ($2.9mill bonus)
I’m going with Sorrell over Robbins because I tend to prefer his intangibles, and maybe a slight edge to him in terms of his defense. Sorrell has played some CF, but he probably settles in to a corner outfield spot. Sorrell is 6’3″/210lbs, and has hit at least .275 in all three of his college seasons, with him improving each year to his .341/.434/1.177 slash this year with 23 HR, 76 RBI, 20 doubles, 11 SB, 33 BB, 61 SO.
Sorrell was ranked much higher in big boards earlier in the season, but he has fallen over time, but I’m not totally sure why. He has had a totally respectable season. He is in the top 15-20 in the country in a number of offensive categories. If you eliminate underclassmen, Sorrell is arguably a top-10 college bat. The fact that he has dropped on the big board may help Seattle out by making him more likely to sign for underslot money.
#2.65 – OF, Marist HS, Martin Shelar ($2.0mill bonus)
It doesn’t take long to get a righthanded power-hitting outfielder after passing on one in the first. Since doing a deep-dive on Shelar after his performance at the MLB Draft Combine; I’ve really fallen in love with his potential. I like Blake Bowen, too, but in the mock draft simulator; Shelar is a more bonus-friendly signing than Bowen while sacrificing none of the upside. So that’s an easy call for me.
#3.101 – RHP, Oregon, Cal Scolari ($208k bonus)
When I mock-draft; it’s tough for me to go dominant on either hitting or pitching. I tend to land closer to a balanced draft than not. So it’s tough for me to not get a starting pitcher somewhere here in my top four picks before the board really falls away of potential MLB caliber arms. I would really like to draft Ben Blair or Jacob Dudan if either, for some reason, falls to this pick, but in the simulator they never do. Dylan Vigue is generally available here, and I like him for Seattle, but his signing bonus “demand” in the simulator was preventive for me doing other things I plan on doing later in this mock.
Scolari is a 6’4″/220lb starter that posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.386 WHIP, 13.4 SO/9, 5.5 BB/9. The fastball is up to 96mph, and there’s a very strong present curveball, with a promising slider as his third offering. It’s not the sexiest pick…he’s struggled more with control than I typically like, and his velocity is a tick or two below where it starts to get pretty sexy…but this is a very solid pick for the third round. Mariner pitching lab do your thing.
#4.129 – RHP, UCLA, Cal Randall ($247k bonus)
Similar to how the farm needs to be restocked with outfield talent; we might need to add 1-2 high profile, fast-rising relief arms. We don’t currently have many arms that look like a future closer. Randall is a big kid at 6’4″/235lbs and he’s already throwing 100mph. That velo helped him strikeout 16.5 hitters per nine. The control needs a bit of work at 5.5 BB/9, but guys couldn’t hit him…he only allowed 4.4 H/9. We’ve seen Seattle take on guys like that and make adjustments that led to better control. Andres Munoz was at 5.4 BB/9 as a minor leaguer in the Padre system, Bryce Miller actually averaged 5.9 BB/9 in his final college season before Seattle drafted him, farmhand Brock Moore was drafted with a 5.8 BB/9 rate for Oregon and that is currently down to 4.1 in 2026 in the minors…there is improvement they could make here with Randal.
#5.162 – SS/3B, Columbia Central HS, Jack Beck ($1.0mill bonus)
Beck was another guy that flashed at the Combine and I started to dig into his profile. Listed at 6’3″/210lbs; Beck was absolutely crushing balls at the combine with premium exit velocities for all players let alone the high school ranks. He may currently be a shortstop, but his projection (and the Mariners’ needs) could push him to third base, which would lowkey be perfect for the M’s. They need to get more righthanded in the infield, but it currently looks like lefties Colt Emerson and Cole Young will be manning SS and 2B for years to come. A righty at third would be ideal.
As with all of my prep picks in this mock draft; part of the interest here with Beck is the signing bonus. I am hunting value more than I would in a year the Mariners have more bonus slot flexibility. Every dollar counts more this year.
#6.191 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman ($154k bonus)
There are a handful of catchers that I really like in this draft class. I am landing on Tayman for his combination of skillsets with the bat and the glove. Plus, there is a good chance I can get a second of my guys later on. Tayman hit .357/.447/1.119 with 18 HR this year, and he’s young for the class as a guy that won’t turn 21 until this August.
#7.220 – LHP, Stony Brook, Micah Worley ($178k bonus)
Worley was on my shortlist of interesting midround college LHP, and then he touched 98mph at the Combine. Let’s go. He’s 6’5″/230lbs and pitched to a 3.12 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 12.1 SO/9 for the season.
#8.250 – LHP, Harrison HS, Colin White ($750k bonus)
I found White when it started to appear that I couldn’t/shouldn’t take prep LHP Carson Bolemon with our first round pick. I made a targeted search of the bulk of prep lefties. White stood out as a 6’3″/205lb southpaw with a 95mph fastball and pretty advanced feel for his slider. He’s a bit overaged already being 19 y/o, and he has a college commitment to Florida, which may be pricey to buy out of.
In terms of baseball mock draft strategies; it’s not the worst idea to draft a tough-sign prep player in rounds 8-10 where the bonus is only slotted for $221-$192k, then if he doesn’t sign you can move the surplus over to a prep player you draft in round 11.
#9.280 – 1B/C, Miami, Alex Sosa ($150k bonus)
This mock became a little TOO righthand-heavy from the bats, so I had to lock in Sosa. I’ve had him in some of my previous mocks, and this is the latest I’ve mocked him. It may be too late, but the simulator allows it for now. He has experience as a catcher, and a lefthanded catcher is a great bonus, but I’m totally fine moving him permanently to first base, which is where he played most of his games for Miami this year.
#10.310 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier ($150k bonus)
Carrier is a tremendous hitter, but falls late in the draft as a 23 y/o senior sign player. He’s a nice counterbalance to the lefthanded OF Sorrell and the youth of Shelar. If Seattle gets two of the three to the majors; this will be an excellent draft class as viewed from the future.
#11.340 – RHP, Olathe West HS, Max Hamilton ($667k bonus)
As you can see from my screencap of this simulation of this mock; after my top ten rounds I had a bonus surplus of $517k. And that doesn’t include a potential bump of an additional $529k if they don’t sign Colin White. If you add the non-penalty max bonus for players drafted in rounds 11-20 of $150k; we can pay Hamilton $667k if we sign White, and we can pay him $1.196mill if we don’t sign White.
Hamilton is a prep player that got some innings throwing in the MLB Draft League to primarily college hitters. And he looked great. He struck out 11 to only 2 walks across 5.2 innings in two appearances.
#12.370 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade
Stade was a guy I had flagged, like Worley, from the regular season as a LHP that I had interest in. He has pushed himself over the top with his performance in the Draft League where his SO/9 has jumped from 14.5 in college season to a staggering 17.2 across 14.2 innings in the MLBDL. Another guy with prototypical pitcher size at 6’4″/220lbs. His fastball is only topping out at 91.2mph, but he makes 7′ of extension down the mound, and the pitch moves 12.9″ IVB and another -15.6″ HB. And his armslot works great with his primary secondary: slider. If we can add some velocity, maybe with a move to the bullpen, this could be Brandyn Garcia 2.0. They drafted Garcia in the 11th round in 2023 and he powered through the minors in under two years.
#13.400 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey
Unlike basically every other year; I don’t think of shortstop as a huge need for Seattle this draft. I took Beck earlier as a SS, but already thinking he might be a future 3B. Carey is a college shortstop who I think sticks at SS. If we can get a future utility infielder out of him; I think that’s great value for this round of the draft.
In 2026, Carey hit .353/.428/1.050 with 15 HR and played some great defense at SS.
#14.430 – C, VMI, Cole Raile
Raile kind of reminds me of Daulton Varsho a few years ago. He’s a catcher but he has such impressive athleticism that he might end up in the outfield. He hit .347/.435/1.099 with 16 HR and 24 SB. He also has one of the better catcher arms I’ve seen.
#15.460 – RHP, Oregon State, Wyatt Queen
Queen was a reliable setup man out of the Beavers’ bullpen where he pitched a 2.49 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, and 14.9 SO/9 using an elite curveball and a solid slider. Originally out of Lake Stevens, WA, this would be a homecoming for Queen.
#16.490 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong
In 2023, the Mariners signed Hunter Fitz-Gerald as an undrafted free agent after he hit .316/.403/1.061 with 22 HR for Old Dominion. Fitz has turned into a decent player in the Mariner system, currently hitting .271 with 19 HR in 77 games in a notoriously pitcher-friendly ballpark in the M’s double-A Arkansas affiliate. I think Tyce Armstrong could be that kind of player. He hit .338/.453/1.211 this year for Baylor while adding 24 HR. He just turned 23 y/o on Friday, so he likely signs for a lower bonus amount.
#17.520 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn
Horn is a 6’4″/200lb, lanky long-reliever for the Chanticleers who pitched 67.1 innings across 31 relief appearances (avg appearance: over 2.0 innings). He’s not big on velo, but the guy can spin the ball like crazy. I’m thinking future Cooper Criswell vibes. He kind of has reverse splits on his sinker which gets 20-21″ of horizontal break to only 5-10″ of induced vertical break. He currently only sits at 87mph, so we’ll need to get him in the weight room and in to gas camp ASAP.
#18.550 – 2B, Iowa, Gable Mitchell
This draft is so heavy towards the righthanded hitting side that I’m trying to force some lefties in where I can. At second base I like Kyle Morrison for Southern Mississippi, and Mitchell from Iowa. I’m taking Mitchell, who has the lesser power, but the better plate discipline and the better defense. He played 47 games at shortstop for the Hawkeyes in 2025, but projects primarily as a 2B down the road. He only struck out 18 times (31 BB) in 270 plate appearances this year.
#19.580 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson
Simmerson is another pure reliever I found across my study of the class that piqued my interest. Listed 6’2″/205lbs, he finished the year with a 3.62 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9 in 32.1 innings out of the bullpen. Fastball profile has a nice floor.
#20.610 – 3B, Toledo, Troy Sudbrook
Just to round out my draft, I looked to add a college third baseman to fill out a minor league roster. Sudbrook hit .373/.467/1.132 with 11 HR, but an impressive 32 doubles for the year. If he can add some strength; this could be a sneaky pick.
Ultimately, it will be interesting to see if an outfielder falls to Seattle at pick #24, if they strategically force one as an underslot pick, or if they actually draft for best player available, which may put them back in position of drafting another high-end pitcher.
Seattle Seamocks 
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