By Jared Stanger
I’ve been spending some time this weekend thinking about what the Mariners could do this offseason, after signing Josh Naylor, to improve upon their 2025 season. What combination best fills the holes of free agency while staying within the structure of budget that is certainly at play from ownership?
This is what I came up with.
I’m sure this won’t be the most popular structure, and I’m fairly certain the front office has a plan that will be perceived more popular, but this is my pretty objective thought.
#1 – Sign one of the posted Japanese players.
It’s been a minute since Seattle has had a substantial Japanese presence on the roster, but I think there is value, both on the field and off, to be found there.
I’ve targeted 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto as the Japanese signing I would pursue. Yes, he is the older of the two big bats, but the power is not that much less, and I think the pitch recognition is so much better and should travel. I think many people think Okamoto is JUST a first baseman, but I like his tape at third, where he won Gold Gloves as recently as 2022, I believe, to be adequate to replace Eugenio Saurez.
As far as Geno…it’s hard to say goodbye to him. I think he brought an emotional character to the clubhouse that was important in both of his stints here. If Geno would be willing to take the same money as I’m proposing Kazuma takes; I would probably just keep the continuity with Geno.
Speaking of the contract…most industry writers project Okamoto gets 3-4 years, and then it’s a pretty wide range of money from, like, $12 to $16mill AAV. I’ve budgeted him at three years, $40.5 million, or $13.5mill AAV.
#2 – Trader Jerry season.
We may NEED to see some trades this winter. Having spent on Naylor, and with the club expected to spend decently on someone else in free agency, we’re going to need to augment the roster with some younger, cheaper, but still MLB-proven, players. We have the farm system that should support making some of these moves.
Trade #1: In my model, I found that if Jorge Polanco gets the contract he’s projected to get; it will be one of the better values in all of MLB. If Seattle does go that route…hey, cool. It’s probably not a bad move. But I, personally, just worry about extending too many of these players that are aging out of their prime.
So, my first trade would be to send the #75 prospect in all of MLB, and the #7 prospect on the M’s top 30, OF Jonny Farmelo, plus our #18 prospect, RHP Michael Morales, to the St Louis Cardinals for IF/OF Brendan Donavan.
The Cardinals have the #5 prospect in all of baseball, JJ Weatherholt, set to debut in 2026, so they’re going to need a position for him to play, and so maybe they make Donovan available.
Donovan has position flexibility, but he spent 82 of his 97 starts last year at second base, and that will be where I pencil him in for Seattle in 2026.
In terms of the return going to the Cards…honestly, this is my most important trade, so I give them their first choice of any of our #6-#8 prospects, Michael Arroyo, Farmelo, or Jurrangelo Cijntje. But when I looked at their farm system; it just felt like they could use outfield help more than 2B or pitching.
Donovan is an Arbitration-2 player about to turn 29 in January, with club control through 2027, and he should cost roughly $5.75mill this year. Last year he hit .287/.353/.775 with 10 HR, 50 RBI in 118 games.
Trade #2: In order to replace some of the power lost by Polanco not being re-signed; I’m going to try to add some in the outfield. I am sending the Detroit Tigers #8 prospect SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje plus OF/IF Luke Raley in order to acquire OF Kerry Carpenter.
Carpenter destroyed Seattle in the postseason, so Mariner fans may have some mixed emotions about this one, but Carpenter is a 28 y/o who hit 26 HR in 130 games last year, with a slash line of .252/.291/.788, but a career OBP of .322, so we’re gonna try to straighten some of that back out.
Raley ends up the short straw between he and Dom Canzone in terms of who we would prefer to retain as a bench lefty outfielder. His ability to backup 1B is also now covered by Okamoto. There just really isn’t space for him, and he’s also the more expensive of he and Canzone, as he was projected to make $1.75mill next year. That’s not nothing when we’re pushing as hard as we can up against the “salary cap”.
Carpenter has three years of club control remaining, and he should cost about $3.5mill this year depending on arbitration. He may end up in true platoon with Victor Robles in right field, as Carpenter hit righties at a .257 clip while Robles hit .213 against them, and then Robles hit lefties .289 while Carpenter hit .217 off them.
I’m sure a lot of fans, and probably the front office, bristle at the idea of trading away Cijntje, but we’re holding onto Ryan Sloan and 2025 first rounder Kade Anderson, who probably fit better in the timeline of our pitching development/cost progression anyways. I felt like we NEEDED to part with someone quality to get an MLB player with “now” ability and cheap club control. That looked like Cijntje.
Trade #3: I’ve got a couple of smaller trades that fans may not immediately recognize, but trust me…I didn’t so much fucking homework on these. I’m sending 2B Cole Young to the Kansas City Royals for righthanded reliever Lucas Erceg.
Erceg kind of ends up a cap casualty for the Royals who have probably a tighter budget than Seattle, and will have multiple arbitration raises to work through. Erceg is a bit older as he will turn 31 early in the 2026 season, but he has club control through 2029, and should cost about $2.00mill this year. It’s not that different from when Seattle got ahold of Paul Sewald in his age 31 season.
Erceg has been a very solid reliever for the last two years between Oakland and Kansas City posting sub-4.00 ERA’s including a 2.64 mark last year. His strikeouts were down a bit in 2025, but his velo and pitch metrics are still very strong.
Young becomes somewhat expendable with Donovan acquired and Colt Emerson nipping at his heels in AAA already. Emerson may, eventually, be the replacement for JP Crawford at SS in 2027, but he probably has to start somewhere else when he debuts in 2026. In a scenario where Emerson plays 2B; Donovan could play LF with Randy Arozarena benched vs RHP. The Royals like this trade as they can either make Jonathan India available in trade immediately, or slot Young in as his replacement in 2027 and give him another year to develop.
Trade #4: This is the smallest, but perhaps sneakiest, trade of all. I’m sending #12 prospect OF Tai Peete to the San Francisco Giants for lefthanded reliever Erik Miller.
Miller is a big boy at 6’5″/268lbs and he posted a 1.50 ERA, but pedestrian 6.0 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 numbers across 36 appearances and 30.0 innings for the Giants in 2025. His season ended early when he was placed on the IL in early July with elbow soreness from which he never came back. Obviously, this trade would be contingent on a physical, but I like the “buy-low” nature here in order to acquire a lefty that touches 99mph with run. And he’s only 28 in February with club control through 2029 and should only cost $820k this year.
Even if the injury is still not fully resolved; there is enough meat on the bone that this could be a useful trade across the life of the deal. This could end up sort of resembling when Seattle acquired Andres Munoz while he was in injury recovery for the Padres. We got Munoz on August 30, 2020 after he didn’t appear at all for SD that season, and he didn’t pitch for Seattle until October 3rd, 2021.
After all of these transactions, the Mariner rotation remains fully intact. The defense should be better with Donovan > Polanco, and potentially Ben Williamson starting at 3B with Okamoto at DH. Power rates may be down a bit, but contact rates should be better (really, we are mistakenly taking credit for Saurez’ 49 homeruns, when in fact he only hit 13 for SEA). The farm system maintained our top 6 prospects, along with keeping guys like SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, OF Yorger Bautista, SS Nick Becker from the top 15. And we didn’t blow our remaining (expected) $23mill budget surplus on one guy. We’ve addressed 2B, 3B, OF, RHP, and LHP. We’ve got relatively younger without becoming inexperienced, and we’ve left room for minor league promotions.
New Roster:
C- Raleigh, Ford
1B- Naylor, Okamoto
2B- Donovan, Rivas
SS- Crawford, Rivas
3B- Williamson, Okamoto
LF- Arozarena, Donovan, Canzone
CF- Rodriguez, Robles
RF- Carpenter, Robles, Canzone
DH- Okamoto, Carpenter
SP1- Woo
SP2- Gilbert
SP3- Kirby
SP4- Castillo
SP5- Miller
CL- Munoz
RHRP- Brash, Bazardo, Erceg, Hoppe
LHRP- Speier, Miller, Ortiz
Seattle Seamocks 