draft

Mariner three week away mock

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By Jared Stanger

There was a report that surfaced this week breaking down MLB’s plans to restructure the entirety of amateur player acquisition as part of the impending CBA expiration and subsequent renegotiating. A few of the major points of the proposal for the domestic draft:

-banning the drafting of prep players altogether, and effectively making draft eligibility start at a player’s age of 20.

-shortening the draft from 20 rounds to 12 rounds.

-cutting the available signing bonus pool by more than $150 million per year.

-hard-slotting the bonus amounts rather than the current system of suggested slot bonus.

I haven’t heard/seen anyone thinking these ideas are good outside of Rob Manfred who is acting on behalf of MLB owners. The idea of installing a draft in place of the international signing period is particularly inconvenient for the Mariners who are projected to sign three of the top international prospects, including Mairon De La Rosa, who Seattle recently sniped from the Yankees when their verbal agreement fell apart. Under the MLB proposal, the 2027 signing period (typically in January of each year) would disappear completely, to be replaced by a draft that would take place in September 2027. They would also raise the international age eligibility from 16 to 18, thereby making all of Seattle’s 2027 agreements ineligible until, at least, 2028.

None of the reported draft changes would affect the 2026 domestic draft. At least, that’s what I was initially thinking. But as I’ve spent some time dwelling on these proposals; it occurs to me that their leaking into the media and then into the common knowledge could actually affect this year. Players coming from the 2026 high school draft class may now be incentivized to sign with their drafting MLB team for higher bonus amounts in 2026, than to risk the possibility of a slashed bonus pool, if not a hard-slotted possibility, should a new CBA pass as proposed.

Savvy MLB teams may seek to take advantage of these conditions and look to stock up on prep players this year, before their option to do so goes away entirely or even changes towards more restrictive. The only thing within the MLB’s reported draft restructure that benefits the players themselves would be the change in eligibility for college players from “after three years of college” to “after two years of college”. That proposal, in concert with the recent change in NIL money for college athletes, may be enough to sway 2026 prep players into honoring their college commitments this cycle. But, as far as I can tell, college baseball players aren’t cashing in on NIL money like, say, college football players. At the high end of baseball NIL money, my research suggests elite baseball players are making more like a max of $500,000 a year. Multiply that times the required two-years in college; and an elite college player is looking at, maybe, $1,000,000 in college earnings. So any 2026 draft bonus north of a million dollars could be enough to get most prep players signed to their drafting team this summer. In theory.

With this in mind…will it be possible for Seattle to sign an elite prep player at pick #24 for a techinically underslot figure?? The suggested slot bonus for pick #24 is $3,818,700. Could the Mariners find themselves with more prep options willing to sign at that pick for, say, $3.2million? An underslot deal in the first round is particularly appealing for Seattle this year as they currently don’t have a large bonus pool available. The Mariners’ total bonus pool is $8,218,200, which is the seventh-smallest pool in MLB this year. Saving money in the first round will make it easier to double, triple, quadruple down on prep players for the entire draft.

As I did in my last mock draft; I am cross-referencing my theoretical draft plan with a simulated mock draft via Over-slot.com. Their program includes a bonus element, but that element is non-negotiable. So the dollar amounts listed could vary widely from eventual actual bonus amounts.

#1.24 – LHP, Southside Christian HS, Carson Bolemon

Maybe a week ago Keith Law published a mock draft with the Mariners taking Bolemon here. At the time, I found the pick somewhat unresearched, as Seattle has never drafted a prep pitcher higher than pick #55 in the Jerry Dipoto era. But, if my new overriding theory of this draft is true, in light of this week’s news; Seattle may very well be considering prep players of either discipline earlier and more often than they ever have before. And…said pick(s) may cost less than ever before, so it could be two birds with one stone.

Bolemon ticks a lot of boxes for Seattle at #24, but one of those is how rarely they will reach and draft underslot players with their first round picks. Kade Anderson wasn’t a reach last year, but they did end up getting him for an underslot figure. Bolemon is ranked the #23 player in the class by mlb.com. Getting him at pick #24 is appropriate value, and then the signing bonus is TBD. My theory is that Bolemon will sign for underslot, but my simulator mock budgets for him to get exactly slot. So we can handle either pathway.

As a player, Bolemon reminds me of a very specific pitcher. I’m not going to reveal who, but suffice to say he would make a great pick. The calling card for him here, for me, is the overall pitchability. With the asterisk being the future upside including the potential to add some velo.

#2.65 – 3B, Mill Valley HS, Beau Peterson

Part of the hack of the draft simulator is that they place a bonus floor on certain rounds, so it actually benefits your overall mock to draft a high bonus player in the second round. You can’t aggressively underslot this early. So I’m adjusting my strategy to go prep-prep with the first two picks.

Peterson has a really strong hit-tool in his high school season where he hit .535/.650/1.536 with 3 HR, and 26 SB. The interesting thing is that he was also the winner of the high school homerun derby last year. So there is power within, but he’s not selling out average to get to his power. That’s tremendous discipline for a teenager.

#3.101 – OF, North Carolina, Owen Hull

I’ve started to think Seattle might be targeting outfield help with one of their early picks. That thought has coincided with my tendency to recency bias players that excel in the various stages of the College World Series. Owen Hull has been one of the biggest stars in the CWS and has now led the Tar Heels to this year’s Finals. On the season, Hull has hit .398/.506/1.121 with 8 HR, 26 doubles, 85 RBI, 18 SB, 47 BB, and 44 SO. In 2024 and 2025, before his transfer to UNC, Hull stole 42 and 29 bases for George Mason. So there’s a bit more speed there than, perhaps, the 2026 season might suggest.

Hull could be a true centerfielder with leadoff hitter traits. The Mariners current outfield situation has Randy Arozerana a free agent at the end of this season, Victor Robles has a club option for 2027, Rob Refsnyder may not make it on the team through the end of this season, Luke Raley under club control through his age 33 season after 2028, Dom Canzone is also under control through 2028 when he will be only 30. On the farm…Laz Montes has now played exactly 64 games at the AA level in both 2025 and 2026, and has shown some improvement in the second stint (14 HR, 39 RBI in 2025 to 20 HR, 54 RBI in 2026), but he’s still maxing out at a .237 average at the level. Jonny Farmelo has struggled to stay healthy and isn’t exactly dominating at Everett the way a first round pick should. Yorger Bautista is only hitting .226 in Arizona rookie ball. If you compare those top 10 OF prospects to the Mariners top 10 SS prospects (Celesten .308/.409/.880 in Everett and Becker .271/.432/.890 in Arizona); the shortstops have the current edge in performance. This may point Seattle’s draft interests more towards reinforcing CF than SS early on.

In terms of Hull, specifically…I wonder if you don’t try to go more of the Colt Emerson route, which would be to target the bat-to-ball player, but then to add power during the development. Also like Emerson…Hull seems to have very high intangibles including leadership.

#4.129 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

There was a time in the middle of the college season that I had Vigue in every mock draft I did. He felt like a fourth round steal. But then he really seemed to scuffle over his last 5-6 regular season starts. In his start in the CWS Super Regionals vs Texas; I thought Vigue looked back to the form I saw from him at the beginning of the season. The foundation here is the sinker/sweeper combination which Vigue threw roughly 95% of the time this year. There are additional offerings in a cutter and a change that we really need to see more progress on.

#5.162 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Catcher is one of the positions I always try to include in the top six rounds of my mock drafts. Tayman is a nicely balanced hitter/defender at the backstop who can hit, hit for power, and throw. Down on the farm; Seattle’s top-ranked catching prospect, Luke Stevenson has regressed a bit in Everett after a hot start to his pro career in Modesto in 2025 where he hit .280/.460/.860 in 22 games. At Everett his line has dropped to .225/.410/.789 with only four homeruns in 50 games. There are no other catchers in the Mariners’ top 30 prospects. In previous mocks, I’ve had Seattle draft Texas catcher Carson Tinney in the second round. I don’t think that’s a crazy idea. Especially after Tinney was recently named the 2026 Division I catching Gold Glove winner. Tayman is a capable fallback plan.

Tayman hit .357/.447/1.119 with 18 HR for the year.

#6.191 – RHP, St Joseph’s, Christian Coppola

Coppola is a reliever by recent history, but I’m wondering/hoping if he doesn’t in fact have starter stuff. Either way, I think he is predominantly underrated on media big boards. I’m forcing his pick early to secure his services. Depending on the innings amount used to determine qualifiers; Coppola can be seen as the #1 pitcher in the country by SO/9. He had 16.6 to go with a 1.69 ERA, 0.884 WHIP, and 2.9 BB/9.

#7.220 – LHP, Texas, Luke Harrison

Harrison is a bit of a forced pick. I’m always looking for lefthanded pitching, especially starters, and Harrison looked pretty solid in his recent CWS start. Listed 6’2″/220lbs, Harrison has a season line of 4.10 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 10.8 SO/9, 3.8 BB/9. He definitely looks like a guy that needs a season or two at Gas Camp to maybe build him up to a bit more velo.

#8.250 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier continues to be in my mock since previous editions. Probably my favorite RHB in the college class. Being a senior-sign guy at 23 y/o is the only reason, I think, that he is available this late.

#9.280 – SS, HS, Christian Doty

From my favorite college RHB to my favorite prep RHB…Doty has probably my favorite swing and barrel rate of all the prep players. His future defensive position is probably a fair question, but that has also come in to play for previous Mariner prep shortstop picks like Cole Young and Colt Emerson that were drafted in the first round. That is one of the least important questions. If the bat plays; you will find a spot for him.

#10.310 – RHP, Oregon State, Isaac Yeager

For the longest time; it felt like the Mariners didn’t take drafting relievers seriously. That seemed to change, I want to say, two years ago when they really made a focused effort to draft quite a few high-value relievers. Some of those guys were quickly flipped in trades for MLB talent, but some (Charlie Beilenson and Brock Moore) are already at AA, which Seattle has frequently used as the true measuring stick for pitchers being MLB-ready (rather than AAA). I like this draft to, again, selectively take a couple fast-moving relief arms.

Yeager is a Seattle native, and I’d love for him to make his pro journey come through Everett, Tacoma, and Seattle. He’s a legit prospect coming from a pitching program in Oregon State that has ties to the Seattle player development program in the Beavers’ head coach Mitch Canham, the 2019 manager of the Arkansas Travelers. Yeager had a 2.04 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, 2.5 BB/9.

This is what this half of the mock looked like in the simulator. Glitch in the program lists the Christian Doty pick as Tyler Albanese, but note the signing bonus coincides more with a prep player’s bonus.

#11.340 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

Carey would be tremendous value at this round. He hit .353/.428/1.050 with 15 HR and was a finalist for the college Gold Glove at shortstop.

#12.370 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong is one of the best righthanded power bats in the draft. He’s 6’4″/228lbs and hit .338/.453/1.211 with 24 HR in 56 games. He’ll turn 23 the week before the draft, which is the only reason he might fall this far.

#13.400 – C, Notre Dame, Mark Quatrani

Quatrani had a very strong year after transferring from Cornell to Notre Dame before this season. He hit .376/.457/1.100 with 15 HR. He doesn’t have the strongest throwing arm, but he’s a very good receiver.

#14.430 – RHP, LaTech, Declan Dahl

It’s tough to find depth starting pitching in the draft, so you kind of need to dig in crates of the smaller schools. Dahl is 6’3″/195lbs and pitched to a 3.54 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 2.5 BB/9.

#15.460 – LHP, Bowling Green, Ethan Stade

Stade would be a nice little upside play as a lefty pitcher. He had a 4.36 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9. As of now his fastball is topping out at 92mph, but if we can add even 3mph to that; he could be at least a bullpen piece. I’m sort of picturing Brandyn Garcia who the M’s drafted in the 11th round in 2023 out of Texas A&M.

#16.490 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Darin Horn

Horn is an overaged reliever without much velocity. So why draft him at all? The guy misses bats. He averaged 12.4 SO/9 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.262 WHIP, and 3.2 BB/9. If everything goes right; he might be Cooper Criswell.

#17.520 – RHP, Clemson, Hayden Simmerson

I really wanted to draft Taiwanese RHP Jui Chieh Lin with this pick, but I’m not really clear on his eligibility. He is currently pitching in the MLB Draft League but I don’t know if that is a de facto indication of draft eligibility.

I take Simmerson here instead, who may be poor man’s Cal Randall. He had a 3.62 ERA, 0.897 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 in 32.1 relief innings for Clemson.

#18.550 – LF, Northeastern, Harrison Feinberg

I had a few outfielders that I liked at this pick, but I went with Feinberg because of how hard he plays on defense. This guy is a gamer. He hit .331/.440/1.037 with 16 HR and 42 SB for the year. He doesn’t even particularly read as that fast of a runner…but he seems to have that Josh Naylor feel for when to run.

#19.580 – RHP, Olathe West HS, Max Hamilton

Hamilton was the most last-minute addition to this mock draft. When I ran the simulator for the first ten rounds; using their pre-assigned bonus amounts; I had a surplus of $524,000 for all ten rounds. And that doesn’t factor that the Mariners may actually be able to get agreements for less than the simulator bonus amounts. If I can save another $326k on one or more picks; add that to my surplus, and add another $150k, which all picks in rounds 11-20 are allowed without penalty; I can offer another prep player a $1million signing bonus.

Hamilton is a bit of a two-way-player, but I like him on the mound. Listed 6’2″/208lbs, and there is something about his mechanics and his stuff that really speak to me.

#20.610 – 3B, Toledo, Troy Sudbrook

I like to backup my prep players in my mocks with college players at the same positions. It gives us a more developed option with which we can staff our farm teams throughout the summer as we release underdeveloping players from previous years’ drafts. Sudbrook hit .373/.467/1.132 with 11 HR, 32 doubles, and 13 SB. And he’s a solid defender at third.

Sudbrook has announced a commitment to Clemson in the transfer portal, but he will turn 23 y/o during the 2027 college season, so getting drafted may be the only thing he needs to stop him from setting foot on campus.

If Seattle can get Bolemon signed for closer to $3.5mill, and/or if they don’t manage to sign Doty in the 9th round…they will have enough signing bonus surplus to go after a prep player like Hamilton anywhere on day three of the draft and give him a seven-figure bonus. This may be the team’s last opportunity to draft prep players, so it makes so much sense to really try to stock up now.

Mariners May Mock 2.0

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

(I started writing this mock with the intent to get it done before the M’s game started, but I only got through about 13 rounds before first pitch. So if it feels rushed…it kind of was.)

I’m not gonna get all flashy with the exposition. I kind of have no clue what Seattle is looking to do this year. I don’t love the prep players available at pick #24, so I tend towards the college players. On top of that; I feel like the better overall draft structure looks better if their first pick is a college pitcher. I think the group looks something like: Logan Reddemann, Tegan Kuhns, and Cade Townsend. These are all righthanded starters from blue-chip programs who are having overall strong years. I think my favorite is Reddemann, but he’s also the one I see lasting to pick #24 the least. Kuhns is my least favorite due to his kind of immature personality. I feel like I land most often on Cade Townsend.

#1.24 – RHP, Ole Miss, Cade Townsend

Listed 6’1″/185lbs, Townsend is a young 21 y/o having just had his birthday May 5th. He’s got a deep pitch repertoire and for the year he’s rocking a 1.119 WHIP, 12.4 SO/9, and 2.6 BB/9. Seattle has had great early returns on the last starting pitcher named Kade they drafted out of the SEC last year; so why not run it back?

#2.65 – SS, Kansas State, Dee Kennedy

Seattle has frequently backed up their first round college pitcher with a prep pitcher. I’ve decided not to do that this time. I’ve actually found in my simulations that I like going college heavy in the top of the draft, and then targeting some overslot prep players with picks in the middle of the draft. Seattle hasn’t used this strategy in a minute, but I’m liking it this year.

Kennedy is currently the starting shortstop for the Wildcats, but he has also played significant innings as their starting 3B last year, as well as playing 50 games at 2B for Texas back in 2024.

Kennedy has a smaller frame at 5’11″/180lbs, but on the year he has a .359/.463/1.205 slash with 20 HR and 21 SB in 54 games. I love the combo of power and speed.

#3.101 – RHP, Ole Miss, Taylor Rabe

Rabe has been one of the biggest draft risers in recent weeks as he has struck out 27 batters in his two most-recent starts where he has pitched a combined 12.0 innings. He has walked only one over that time. For the season he has 81 SO to 8 BB. And he has that kind of control while also touching 99mph with his fastball. And at 6’5″/200lbs, Rabe looks very much like the kind of pitcher Seattle targeted in the years that saw them find Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Emerson Hancock.

At one point, I was drafting Rabe in the 5th round. Now, I’m just hoping a late third is early enough to get him.

#4.129 – RHP, Georgia, Dylan Vigue

Sometimes a given draft year starts taking on a vibe similar to a previous draft. The M’s have had a few draft classes that went heavy on pitching in the earlier rounds. They did it most recently in 2024 when they drafted Jurrangelo Cjintje, then Ryan Sloan, and then a bunch of big velo reliever types. They did it in 2019 when they opened with five consecutive pitchers, and eight of the first nine.

I kind of just like the structure of this class going heavy on pitchers in the top ten rounds, and then filling in some bats in the second half.

Vigue is another SEC pitcher with good size at 6’3″/230lbs, and whose stuff looks better than his results. He’s got a 3.57 ERA, 1.264 WHIP, 11.2 SO/9, 4.9 BB/9 on the year. His velo isn’t overwhelming, but I like the way his fastball and slider interact with each other.

Vigue is already 22 y/o, so we may be able to get him slightly underslot.

#5.162 – OF, Pittsburgh, Lorenzo Carrier

Carrier might be my favorite pure hitter in this draft. His season line is: .396/.543/1.361 with 20 HR, 66 RBI in 53 games. He will be turning 23 y/o this Wednesday, so we should be able to get him for underslot money as long as he’s still on the board at this point.

#6.191 – 1B, Miami, Alex Sosa

I originally started liking Sosa because he was a lefty-hitting catcher, but as I kept doing more research I started to realize he’s mostly playing 1B this year for the Hurricanes. At that point I started moving off of him as a pick, but I just wasn’t liking the overall draft class as much without his bat in there. So I just won’t sweat what his defensive position is/will be. If we can get some catching innings out of him…great. If he’s a first baseman…great. If he’s a DH…bummer, but we’ll deal. He’s hitting .335/.448/1.118 with 16 HR, 64 RBI in 53 games.

#7.220 – C, Notre Dame, Mark Quatrani

Quatrani is a catcher I only found recently, and the more I dug into him; the more I started to like him. In 2026 he is hitting .373/.457/1.094 with 14 HR, and 64 RBI. Then I noticed that he hasn’t had a defensive error in two or three years. Then I noticed that he was a transfer player this year, and before Notre Dame he had played two years for Cornell…in the Ivy League. Feels like a future MLB manager.

#8.250 – RHP, VCU, Zach Peters

Peters is already 23 y/o, so we can get him for underslot money, but he’s also got some upside having pitched to a 1.62 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 15.8 SO/9 in 44.1 innings out of the bullpen.

#9.280 – LHP, South Alabama, Jaxon Shineflew

Lefthanded pitchers always seem to get overdrafted every year, so it’s tough to find value in a LHP later in the draft. Shineflew might have some traits that the Seattle pitching lab can elevate.

#10.310 – RHP, Vermont Academy, Kaiden McCarthy

McCarthy is super young for the class having only recently reclassified from 2027 to 2026. Listed 6’0″/190lbs, but already showcasing a fastball touching 99mph. Seattle has had some luck finding prep players from unorthodox, northern states like Vermont where Kaiden is from. Nick Becker came out of New York, Ryan Sloan came out of Illinois, Colt Emerson came from Ohio, Cole Young came from Pennsylvania.

Obviously, Mccarthy will require a significant overslot bonus in order to sign him away from college, but I’ve accounted for that with, basically, all underslot deals outside of my first two picks. I could give him pretty close to $3mill to get him signed, but industry sources say he might sign for closer to $1.5mill. That would be great because we can still use surplus bonus pool money going into rounds 11-20, even though those picks are not slotted.

#11.340 – SS, Emani Ford

As I was experimenting with when and where to target prep players that would need to get seven-figure overslot deals; I really started liking the look of drafting those guys in the 9th, 10th, 11th round range. It also started to be clear to me that, if I didn’t draft prep players in the 2nd-4th round range like Seattle has typically done in recent years; I would have significant bonus surplus available after the 10th round.

So I started looking for prep players that had kind of 5th-7th round projection, with bonus expectations of around $1mill, and college commitments to underwhelming schools. I found Ford. Listed 6’1″/177lbs, Ford is a switch-hitter that plays primarily shortstop, but may have a future in the outfield. I just love the swing and the barrel rate from this guy.

#12.370 – RHP, Virginia, Tyler Kapa

Kapa is a 6’2″/195lb closer for Virginia who has a 1.27 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, and 11 saves in 23 appearances this year. His stuff just looks like a Seattle guy, to me.

#13.400 – 2B, Iowa, Gable Mitchell

If there’s one thing that I’m displeased with in my own mock draft; it is that it is sorely lacking in lefties. Both pitching and hitting. So when I found lefties that I like; I made sure to fit them in. Mitchell is a 5’9″/185lb infielder who played 47 games at shortstop for the Hawkeyes last year, 54 games at 2B for them in 2024, before moving back to primarily 2B this year. He also has six games in his career at 3B. This year he is hitting .375/.467/1.027 with 5 HR, 13 SB, and 30 BB to 18 SO. And the glove is very solid.

#14.430 – LHP, NC State, Cooper Consiglio

Consiglio may be a tough-sign as he is young for a Junior (won’t be 21 until November), and he could easily decide to stay in school another year, maybe make some transfer portal money, and then look to be a higher draftpick in 2027. He could also decide to stay in school to try to improve upon his performance this year: 5.73 ERA, 1.441 WHIP, 10.7 SO/9, 4.2 BB/9.

Seattle makes this kind of pick, who doesn’t sign, all the time. They did it last year with a guy named Griffin Stieg in the 18th round (and he’s been awful this year back at Virginia Tech). They did it with Brian Walters in the 19th round in 2024. They did it with Troy Taylor in the 20th round of 2021 draft (then turned around and drafted him in the 12th round in 2022).

#15.460 – 1B, Baylor, Tyce Armstrong

Armstrong was a difficult guy to place. He has had one of the best power seasons of anyone in the class, but he’s a 1B/DH only type who is going to be 23 in July. National baseball draft outlets aren’t giving him much respect even though he has hit .338/.448/1.217 this year with 24 HR, 64 RBI in 54 games. He also, famously, was the guy that hit three grand slams in the same game back in February. Seattle needs more righthanded power in the system, so I would be fine taking a guy like Armstrong as early as the 6th round (for underslot).

#16.490 – SS, Nebraska, Dylan Carey

Any mock draft I do, I kinda want to find at least two catchers and at least two shortstops over the course of the 20-21 picks. Carey is a guy I found that I like, who is not getting much draft love. He’s hitting .347/.418/1.040 this year with 14 HR and 9 SB. He’s got just a really clean, line-drive stroke to him. There could be more here to unearth.

#17.520 – C, Cal Poly, Ryan Tayman

Tayman marks the second of my two catching draftpicks. He’s a little bit young for the class as a Junior that won’t turn 21 until August 26th (cutoff for draft eligible sophomores would be that they have to be 21 by August 1st). This year he’s hitting .351/.443/1.116 with 16 HR, 53 RBI in 54 games.

#18.550 – RHP, Oregon State, Wyatt Queen

Queen is a local product coming out of Lake Stevens High School before playing at Oregon State. Listed 6’2″/214lbs with a season line of 2.41 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 15.1 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9 across 41 innings in 19 relief appearances. Those innings over that number of appearances mean he averaged over 2 innings of relief per game pitched. Feels very much like a Seattle middle relief guy.

#19.580 – RHP, Lamar, Chris Olivier

Olivier is just a guy that I spotted with some free and easy mechanics and some pitch shapes that look like a good starting point. If we can add some weight (listed only 150lbs) and then some velocity (topping out at 90mph right now); maybe we can build from there.

#20.610 – OF, Mercer, Chris Katz

Katz is a well-over-aged player (he will be 23.5 y/o by the time of the draft), but he’s working on a 20 HR season where he’s walked exactly twice as much as he has struck-out (48 BB to 24 SO), and that, to me, is the kind of profile I like to dig into. His slash line is .374/.496/1.245 with 71 RBI and 38 XBH over 56 games.

I realize this mock is atypical to the format the Mariners have followed in recent years, but the net outcome looks almost exactly like what their draft classes have looked like. I’d kinda like to see them give this a go. Considering how small their bonus pool is; this might be the way to work around that.

Seahawks’ Senior Bowl week mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The annual college all-star Senior Bowl game will be played six days from today, and practices for the game begin on Tuesday, so what better time to get in a last minute mock draft to sort of plant my flag for some of the guys high on my list that may soon be moving up higher on the consensus list.

In terms of the Seahawks, it’s really feeling like they need to have a big draft. I’m talking big in terms of volume of picks. I keep looking at it, and I think this might be best served as a 12-13 pick draft. I don’t think we’ve ever seen John Schneider draft more than 11 in a given draft, so they probably won’t go to 12, but they also probably won’t make the player trades I’d like to see them make to acquire draft capital AND to accelerate their dead money problem now so that they can have a cleaner slate for 2026. Unfortunately, Schneider never takes the full measure. It’s always half-measures, that keep us perpetually in the upper-middle class of the NFL.

Seattle has one of the league’s worst cap situations heading into the new league year. Moves will need to be made. It’s just gonna be a question of which players take the brunt of the cut(s). The biggest cap hits that will make for potential trade/cut include: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Dre’mont Jones, Uchenna Nwosu.

The recent league-wide coaching search has potentially opened up some interesting possibilities for the Seahawks. Former head coach Pete Carroll’s hiring in Las Vegas, and former offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer’s hiring in Dallas could create a better trade market for Seahawk players that overlapped with their respective time in Seattle. The Raiders, in particular, could be a team to watch due to their #2 most cap space in the league. They have some big holes at QB and WR to fill, and they can afford to pay whoever they choose to fill them.

If just looking at teams with need at WR; I think both the Patriots and Chargers are top 5 in cap space and could use someone like DK. I tend to think there won’t be much of a trade market for Geno. He saw free agency a couple years ago, didn’t get much interest, and returned to Seattle on a pretty team-favorable deal. The Pats have 9 draft picks to trade with, the Raiders have 10 picks, and the Chargers have 11. All three teams tick a number of boxes that would point towards a good trade match.

I’m currently most interested in a Patriots deal. I like it for the possibility of swapping DK for a mid-round pick AND getting New England QB Joe Milton as part of the return. The Pats hold two picks at the top half of the third round at #3.69 and #3.77. If we were just to trade DK with no Milton add-on; I would want a 2nd-round plus draftpick. Let’s do the deal for 3.69 and Milton.

The next factor to consider is how the first round of this draft class is stacking up. How many true 1st round players are in there? How many players with similar grade will plausibly be available from, say #18 to #50 overall? I like trading back. And it’s gonna be many trades to get from 8 picks up to 12. I’m not giving analysis on who and why the trade partners are…this is just trying to line up positioning for better points in the draft.

The first move I’ve got #1.18 traded to Detroit for #1.28 + #2.60.

Immediately I flip #60 to Jacksonville for #3.70 + #4.105.

We keep moving it down with #70 to Carolina for #3.74 + #4.112.

And finally #74 goes to Pittsburgh for #3.83 + #4.121.

So the final board becomes:

#1.28, #2.50, #3.69, #3.82, #3.83, #4.105, #4.112, #4.121, #4.136, #5.172, #6.186, #6.211, #7.235

Before we get to the actual picks. I already know some of these are gonna get blown up by rising tides. This is just for now.

#1.28 – OL, Ohio State, Donovan Jackson

There are a number of spots throughout this mock where I’ve got symbolic duos. At this one, we’ve got two guys that should be day one starters at left guard. If we get either Jackson or Tyler Booker, I think we’re off to a fantastic start to the draft. Honestly, this pick could open up if we included some of the tackles that might slide inside to guard like Wyatt Milum. It’s, overall, a very strong OL draft, and that’s one of the reasons I like the trade back to start adding volume.

Jackson gets might slight nod over Booker due to the way he adjusted to playing left tackle for the Buckeyes after the season-ending injury to Josh Simmons. And, really, with Schneider’s recent comments about guards over-paid and over-drafted; maybe a guy that most-recently played well at tackle, can be the exception (see: Germain Ifedi).

This pick needs to be a leader. I feel confident that Jackson, Booker, Milum, Armand Membou, Josh Conerly all have very strong leadership traits. The Seahawk OL, as currently contructed, doesn’t have a leader. Certainly not one that is playing well enough to remain in the starting lineup, and lead from the field.

#2.50 – DS, South Carolina, Nick Emmanwori

I don’t have a great, articulate justification for this pick. Do the Seahawks have room for a high-priced safety pick?? Do they need a starting safety? It doesn’t really feel like it. But that also makes this feel like good drafting. This will be the best player available if he falls this far. He won’t.

I like everything that Emmanwori brings to the table. He’s a 6’3″/227lb safety that should light up the Combine. He’s as big as many modern linebackers. He posted 6.77 tackles per game, which is a lot for a safety. And he had 4 INT and 2 PBU, to demonstrate his coverage ability. This could, potentially, be Mike Macdonald’s new Kyle Hamilton type that he can just create around.

#3.69 – DE, South Carolina, Kyle Kennard

Defensive end is one of the strongest positions in this draft, so it will be a bit of a game of draft chicken to push drafting one this far. It’s probably the smarter move to take one with the #50, but I think Emmanwori is the rarer player.

There’s an underlying theme to this entire draft class. Kennard matches up very well with this theme. He’s 6’5″/255lbs and had an impressive 15.5 TFL, 11.5 sacks, and 10 hurries. One of his most-notable performances was the game he played vs likely 1st round pick OT Will Campbell.

#3.82 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

The Seahawks have some issues to resolve along the DL. As we mentioned earlier, there are some potential cap casualties that could be lost. But there are also the free agents: Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins. We need some fresh bodies. And they can kinda be all different body types. Dre’mont is 6’3″/281lbs and plays mostly outside. Jarran is 6’3″/306lbs and plays some undersized nose tackle. Hankins is 6’3″/325lbs but was never really the run-stuffer his size would suggest.

I kinda like targeting some DL that have versatility. Robinson has it in droves. He’s 6’6″/310lbs and he’s played all over the DL for the Huskers, not to mention some fullback. Last year, he had 12.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 7 hurries, 4 PBU, 1 FF, and a blocked kick. I think he can absorb snaps from both Dre’mont and Jarran.

#3.83 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

Tight end is a few things in this draft: it’s a good position group, it’s a player that could figuratively give you some replacement production for the traded DK Metcalf, and it’s another of my player duos. Michael Arroyo is the counterpart to Ferguson, and he might be the better candidate to replace DK, but he also might post the better forty time at the combine and be drafted earlier.

Ferguson is 6’5″/255lbs and his season included 43 receptions for 591 yards and 3 TD. The key to Ferguson is his ability after the catch.

#4.105 – CB, California, Nohl Williams

For whatever reason this year, I haven’t been looking closely at the corner class. When I started correcting that omission recently; I almost instantly fell for Nohl Williams. He’s a 6’1″/200lb corner who posted 7 INT and 9 PBU. When I crack open the tape; I thought his press technique was immaculate. His footwork is very good, and I think the long-speed might be REALLY good.

#4.112 – OT, UConn, Chase Lundt

Here, we find our third of the duos. In what is overall a very cool class for right tackles; I’d like to see Seattle draft one of Lundt or Ozzy Trapilo. In a practical sense, this guy can replace the free agent Stone Forsythe, but really we’re trying to find an eventual replacement for Abraham Lucas. Just in case.

Lundt is the better rush blocker, and Trapilo is the better pass blocker. I’m going with the run-blocker until we have a larger sample size on what Macdonald likes.

#4.121 – DT, Ole Miss, JJ Pegues

Going back to the DL, I think we need a big time run-stuffer, and there are a number of big body guys we could look at. The thing is…I’m not sold that Macdonald wants to use a true nose tackle…like somebody that weighs over 330lbs. I think he wants to disguise defensive play call by using players with versatility. Everybody on the team needs to be able to play both run and pass so that teams can’t audible out of play calls, or if they do they’re audibling to something we can also still defend.

With Pegues, we get a bit more heft from his 6’2″/323lb build. I believe those measurements went official yesterday at the Shrine game weigh-in. Oh, and 33″+ arms. So more heft from Pegues, and more versatility. Pegues can also give you DE snaps (see below). And he’s lowkey electric as a running back in goalline or short-yardage situations.

This year, JJ had 13.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 hurries, and 7 rushing TD. And just a great dude.

#4.136 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

It’s been one of my greatest frustrations the last few years that John Schneider passes on drafting a QB anytime in the 3rd-6th rounds. They could have had Sam Howell at 5th round cost, instead of what became a 3rd round price in trade. They could have drafted Joe Milton directly instead of DJ James, who never even made it out of training camp.

Shough is a 6’5″/225lb, 6th-year senior, who will likely be available later in the draft than his tape suggests because of his age. I think the age thing on draft QB’s is incorrectly considered. I think some maturity in a QB is actually helpful.

In terms of production, Shough had 3195 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT, 62.7% completion, and a 148.15 passer rating.

Give me a QB competition between Joe Milton and Tyler Shough and I’ll love the upside of the 2025 Seahawk offense.

#5.172 – OL, Jacksonville State, Clay Webb

I’ve been saying for weeks that this is a very good OL class…but not at center. I like Florida’s Jake Slaughter quite a bit as an OL intellectual. As part of my due diligence, I was ticking off some of the Senior Bowl players that I was not familiar with.

Coming from Jacksonville State, I definitely had not looked at Webb. One of the first things I found was that he actually was originally committed to Georgia as a center. At Jacksonville State, Webb was playing left guard, and interestingly he does it with no gloves. This guy is old school. Oh, and his measurements are 6’3″/310lbs.

#6.186 – LB, South Carolina, Demetrius Knight

Linebacker is an interesting conversation in this draft. There aren’t many strong candidates. You either draft one before the end of the 3rd round, or you push hard into the late rounds and hope Ernest Young re-signs.

For the longest time, I was trying to force the former method. Only in the last few days did I come to terms with doing the latter. And I’m kinda digging it. I had been stashing Knight in my back pocket as a guy I wanted to make the back half of a LB double-dip.

I actually love Knight in the 6th more than I did Carson Schwesinger in the 3rd. At 6’2″/245lbs, Knight is already a throwback to an era of linebacker from 10-15 years ago when they were this big. I watch Knight’s tape and I think his size plays. The dude has more stopping power than most of this group. And his speed/athleticism is really underrated.

#6.211 – WR, Kansas, Quentin Skinner

It’s a very good testament to the depth of WR this year (and most years) that I have, like, 5-6 names I want to draft here. And I’m still considering taking two WR in consecutive picks.

I’m going with Skinner for checking the most boxes. He’s 6’5″/195lbs and has really good body control. He only had 25 catches this year, but they went for 557 yards (a very high 22.28 ypc). He had only 4 TD, but if you look at his efficiency stats…16% of his catches went for TD, and a ridiculous 52% of them were explosive catches. I think there’s more to be found in there.

On tape, I found myself noting time and time again how wide open he was. You rarely see that anymore. But he also can win contested. He’s a very well-rounded WR, and he can play special teams gunner.

#7.235 – RB, Michigan, Kalel Mullings

I think it’s important draft strategy to take guys from the position groups that are strong in a given year. Everyone knows this is a good RB class. But, for me, that also meant I ended up pushing RB further and further down my board.

Mullings is listed 6’2″/233lbs and rushed for 948 yards, 5.12 YPC, and 12 TD this year.

Some names that I just couldn’t find room for, but liked:

At WR, I really like Kam Chancellor’s nephew, Keandre Lambert Smith. Not a huge body, but he’s great winning in the air contested. He had a ton of explosive plays, and some very intriguing analytics.

Dont’e Thornton is another WR that I’ve got pinned. He’s a huge body guy and he should blow up the combine. He might be the most 1-for-1 replacement for DK…but that includes the fact that his hands are a little sketchy. DK had that, too, and god bless him, he’s improved that as a pro.

The third WR I’ve got in mind is Pat Bryant from Illinois. Again, he’s got REALLY interesting analytics. And I like Ja’corey Brooks and Andrew Armstrong…two very productive guys this year…at the right price.

Mullings was kind of a throw in as my RB pick. I like some other guys more, but just didn’t feel like we needed to push that pick. I love Kaleb Johnson and Omarion Hampton, but can Seattle really be spending another 2nd round pick on a RB? I think DJ Giddens is potentially the best value RB when we look back at this draft in 5 years. I just wish he was a bit thicker. And Damien Martinez had some great analytics from his 2024 season that popped in my research.

I like QB Jaxson Dart better than most of this class, and if we’re not getting Joe Milton back; maybe I make a move on Dart (and still draft Shough late). The buzz on Dart is really starting to pick up, so we’re probably using a 1st rounder to get him, and we might need to use the #18.

Some OL guys that popped in my analytic look at OL included Florida’s OT Brandon Crenshaw and Georgia OC Jared Wilson. These feel like Seahawk picks, too.

I haven’t given him a full tape-study, but TE Jalin Conyers popped in my analytic study. So he may be the third TE behind Arroyo and Ferguson for mid-rounds.

At DE, I had LSU edge Bradyn Swinson in my rough draft for this mock. Good production, some very good intangibles, and he had some numbers pop in the analytics study for DE projectability.

Up next…Senior Bowl weigh-in, practice, and game. Then Combine. Then we try to steal info on Seahawk 30 visit names. Then we draft in April.