By Jared Stanger

Seahawks rookie minicamp opened Friday with the team announcing 3 draftpick signings, 15 rookie free agent signings, and releasing the roster for the four-day rookie camp. Here are some of my early observations:

Seattle punted on WR in the draft and then came back in UDFA with three of their fifteen signings at that spot. 12 total WR in camp, and six of those are 6’2″ or taller.

Seattle also going pretty aggressive in UDFA at LB, with the additional note that they are using many college safeties as linebackers, and what may approximate as a SPUR or STAR position.

The rookie OL roster sort of resembles the draft: deeper at Guard (seven men) and Center (three), and light at Tackle (only four). One of the four Tackles is college defensive lineman Ulric Jones at 6’5″/300lbs.

The Seattle 90-man roster is potentially light at the TE position, so keep an eye on camp invites Jeb Blazevich (who played for Brian Schottenheimer in 2015 at Georgia), and Boston College basketball wing Garland Owens (who at 6’5″/225lbs is being listed as a WR). These would be potential 90-man additions, not 53-man players.

Rookie roster is extremely light at DT with only three men listed at the spot. Rasheem Green will get some work there, and perhaps 6’2″/278lbs Seyvon Lowry.

Most of the Northwest schools are represented:

UW- Will Dissly, Andrew Kirkland, Demorea Stringfellow, Troy Williams
WSU- Jamal Morrow
Oregon- Tanner Carew, Kani Benoit, Scott Pagano
Oregon State- Brandon Arnold
Boise State- Marcus Henry
Idaho State- Skyler Phillips

Positions worth tracking:

Pass-catching RB. Between Jamal Morrow, Kani Benoit, and Justin Stockton (and the fact that JD McKissic is now sharing his jersey number with Rashaad Penny), Seattle may be looking for a more traditional 3rd down back.

Linebacker. Seattle has multiple open spots on the linebacker depth chart after multiple vet free agents were not re-signed. Florida State’s Jacob Pugh with his 59th percentile athleticism might be the frontrunner for one spot. But we also need to see who can emerge to backup Bobby Wagner at MIKE.

Big WR. I’ve been thinking they’d look for another bigger target for a while now. Caleb Scott is a very good athlete. Demorea Stringfellow is pretty intriguing, too.

Former Husky and Ute QB Troy Williams is the 3rd-best QB SPARQ in the 2018 class. May be an interesting practice squad target.

Some SPARQ numbers:

Utah’s Troy Williams is 87th percentile at QB.
MSU’s Gerald Holmes is 71st percentile at RB.
Slippery Rock’s Martin is 68th perecentile at FB.
Texas Tech’s Justin Stockton is 53rd percentile at RB.
Vanderbilt’s Caleb Scott is 85th percentile at WR.
Rasheem Green, Marcell Frazier, and Jacob Martin are all about 60th percentile as DE.

One last, pretty major, observation: “Last Chance U” quarterback, turned Florida Atlantic WR, John Franklin is listed at WR on the camp roster, but I noticed in the team’s photo album from day one that Franklin was wearing the white jersey of defense and huddling up with the DB’s. They’ve got him at cornerback.

By Jared Stanger

After spending a week digesting the 2018 Seattle draft class I am now ready to give you my thoughts.

I think it’s an okay draft. I like the upside of some picks, I see some big redflags on others, and we can grade how we got to each, plus the gaps along the way.  Grade-wise; I think you have to put the Seattle 2018 draft straight down the middle as a ‘C’ grade. Here’s how I get there:

Rashaad Penny- I don’t think this is the huge problem that the national media think it is. It’s a good player that you got maybe 5-13 picks earlier than I would have liked. If what John Schneider said in his presser was true: that “a few teams walked away from potential draft trades”; picking Penny at #27 may not have been their perfect scenario.

Maybe they wanted to get to New England’s pick at #31 or Cleveland’s pick at #33 and those teams balked when Derwin James was taken by the Chargers at #17. Either way Seattle may have been forced into taking the Packer trade, and then not wanting/finding a second trade back from #27.

The bigger problem with Penny at #27 is that the trade only gave Seattle an added 3rd rounder, with no 2nd. Not having a 2nd is a HUGE minus to Seattle’s draft grade that most Seattle fans are ignoring. Drafts aren’t always who did you get, but sometimes who DIDN’T you get (like not getting Xavier Rhodes in 2013 because you gave up the exact pick for Percy Harvin). And Seattle didn’t get ANYONE in the 2nd round that I believe had a ton of really good talent.

Keep in mind, John Schneider is deeply aware of his past mistakes and prone to overcorrect. So if he traded back too much in 2017, he’s going to make sure he doesn’t trade back past Penny in 2018, and be more okay with “reaching”.

That brings us to the 3rd round where Seattle takes, in my opinion, the biggest hit to its grade by selecting Rasheem Green. Contrary to the national media that dislike the Penny pick and like the Green pick; I think the opposite. In general, I prefer reaching on a guy you like than scooping up a guy that has fallen down the draft for all 32 teams.

Between the rumored injury issues and what I’ve observed to be talent and confidence issues; Green is the pick that I am the most frustrated with and skeptical of. At the very best, I think he will take three years to adapt to the NFL, but if I’m being totally honest I think he’s like a CJ Prosise pick: nice athlete, good production, some injury history, but mostly a general softness to his play and his personality.

In the 4th round, Schneider again is compensating for the mistakes of 2017. Last year it was pretty well reported that Seattle missed on the tightends at the top of the 5th round. So this year, John made sure to draft his TE in the 4th. Even though the guy they got this year would probably be available in the 5th. So a slight downgrade for misreading the room and a slight reach on Dissly, but it’s very slight because it’s better to reach than catch a faller.

This 5th round is basically going to determine the longview opinion of Seattle’s 2018 draft. If you hit on 2-3 it completely changes the complexion of everything. But you’re counting on a linebacker with one hand, a safety that you’ll move to a new position, a punter, and a backup tackle with pretty awful athletic testing. You need 2/4 to become pro bowl talent. With the exception of Dickson at punter; you’re probably looking at three backups in their rookie years, then wait-and-see. So that’s a ‘C’ for the 5th.

I know people are going to want to argue in favor of (especially the 5th round) players’ “upside” as reason to grade them higher. But that’s EVERY PLAYER ON EVERY DRAFTBOARD. They’re all upside/projection picks for each respective team. Baker Mayfield is an upside/projection pick. Saquon Barkley is an upside/projection pick.

Every draft class is an “A” for the team that drafted them. Just ask…they’ll tell you the same. Nobody is aiming for a “C” grade. And no fanbase is objective in evaluating theirs. For me, I don’t think we wave a magic wand and think Seattle’s 2018 5th round picks are the unicorns they once-upon-a-time found in the ghost of 5th rounds past. It’s been six years. At some point you stop getting that benefit of the doubt.

Certainly, in terms of class grades, the upside of the 5th round doesn’t overpower a small 1st round reach, no 2nd, and potentially a bust of a 3rd rounder. At best, you hit on two of your 5th’s and that creates a “push” with the day two problems.

The 6th round, to me, is a solid pick for Seattle. Jacob Martin is an above average athlete with good intangibles and decent college production that falls in the draft because he’s undersized. This is what a 6th round pick looks like.

Similarly, Alex McGough in the 7th is a very good athlete, with good size, that falls in the draft because of iffy production at a small school. I would have preferred JT Barrett, but Seattle has previously used 7’s on fullbacks that didn’t even make it out of camp, so there isn’t and shouldn’t be tremendous expectations here regardless of the player or position.

These last two picks, however, do bring us to an interesting dialogue: how DO we grade a pick? If our expectation of a pick in a late round is that we find a ‘C’ player, and you get a ‘C’ player, is that a ‘C’ grade? Or is the idea that we grade on a curve in the late rounds, and hitting the maximum expectation of a pick in that round gets an ‘A’? But arguably an ‘A’ in an easy class should not register the same impact on your GPA as an ‘A’ in a 300 level class.

So, even before talking about draft grades, we really should have talked about how we’re grading. Zach Whitman and I had a brief conversation on twitter this week centered on 5th rounder Tre Flowers, and who he would represent in my “Seattle’s 2018 draft is symbolically analogous to their 2011 draft” thread. Zach contends that Flowers approximating Byron Maxwell would be great value. My intention/effort is more to find the “Richard Sherman” from every pick. Is either right? Not something I’d aggressively fight for or against.

I had another conversation this week with Aaron Levine who was arguing that Rob Rang was giving Seattle a fairer grade than the national media because Rang is local and gets what the team is doing better. First of all, being closer doesn’t make one more objective; it’s literally the opposite, especially if any part of your job requires access. But second of all, evaluate the evaluator. Rang has given Seattle between a B- and a B+ in every draft since 2013 (that I could find). So, for him, we need to either convert the entire scale to between B- to B+, or we need to convert up or down a full grade, or something.

Does his “B+” become his “A” and his “B-” is really his “D”.  Or is his “B+” really his “C+” and his “B-” really a “C-“?

Using the former conversion, these would be his Seattle grades:
2017- B becomes C
2016- B+ becomes A
2015- B- becomes D
2013- B becomes C

Using the latter conversion, his grades would be:
2017- B becomes C
2016- B+ becomes C+
2015- B- becomes C-
2013- B becomes C

Do either of those groupings look more fair with hindsight? Ultimately, we need the context of what a “B” grade means to someone.

And it’s also interesting that different personalities have different thoughts pre- and post- draft. I tend towards idealism pre-draft, and realism post-draft. Others may go realism pre-draft, and idealism post-draft. And the grades will differ reflective of that. First, “what is your expectation of the draft?” and then “did you accomplish those expectations?” My expectations are VERY high, and I haven’t felt they were accomplished immediately following a draft since 2012.

And lastly, “did you evaluate the individual players accurately?” Which will take three years to know. Or does it?

 

By Jared Stanger

Once again this year, Pete Carroll took to twitter in the minutes before the NFL Draft to give clues to who Seattle would be drafting. This is the way I decipher what they meant.

I don’t know for sure that this was intended to be a clue or just to tease the clues, but I’ll include it.

The two big connections are “Will Ferrell” representing WILL Dissly, and the scene coming from “Old School” referring to Carroll’s old school: USC, meaning Rasheem Green.

I want to emphasize that this one might not even be a clue.

This was the first official clue:

My first thought for that was that it might be a monkey “Nick-ing” a hubcap…so Nick cHUBb. Then I remembered…

I have developed a working theory that the Seahawks don’t invite their 1A players to the VMAC. So Rasheem Green would not be the 1A guy they wanted. It might have been Sam Hubbard who was drafted by Cincinnati at #77…two picks before Seattle drafted Green, and one pick after Seattle traded back from #76.

Clue #2:

This is by far the most abstract clue he gave. My conclusion came down to this:

So the complete connection there is: San Diego State Aztec INDIAN Rashaad Penny.

Clue #3:

I saw two themes with this. The first is that Kevin Hart is from Philadelphia which is where Temple University is located. The second is that the quote, “alright, alright, alright” is more famously the catchphrase of Matthew McConaughey who went to Texas. This would put either Jacob Martin or Michael Dickson in play.

Clue #4:

That immediately seemed it had to be Shaquem “Shaq” Griffin.

Enough said.

Clue #5:

Another really tough one. My first thought was that “Mike Tyson” is representing Michael Dickson. But maybe it has something to do with the guy standing in the corner, a guy moving in the corner, moving to corner? In my biggest stretch, let’s say this is for Tre Flowers, the OkState Safety that will be moved to Corner.

Clue #6:

There wasn’t a lot to go on here. The green suit might mean a player or team with Green in the name. Or that it would be a player from a team with a cat as the mascot (Cincinnati Bearcats, etc.). Alex McGough comes from the FIU Panthers.

Clue #7:

A second clue from Kevin Hart and this time it doesn’t have the McConaughey crossover. It had to be someone from Temple.

Jacob Martin.

Clue #8:

This clue I actually somehow missed on Thursday night. It’s a scene from “White Men Can’t Jump”. The movie is sort of famous for the trash-talking, and that could mean “disses”, which means Will Dissly.
Clue #1: Sam Hubbard, drafted 2 picks before Rasheem Green
Clue #2: Rashaad Penny, from the Aztec Indians
Clue #3: Michael Dickson, from Texas
Clue #4: Shaquem Griffin, aka “Shaq”
Clue #5: Tre Flowers, who is being moved to the corner
Clue #6: Alex McGough, from the Panthers
Clue #7: Jacob Martin, from Temple
Clue #8: Will Dissly, for being a white guy that didn’t post great combine jumps

I tend to think that these clues are chosen with more than one player in mind, but both of whom are on Seattle’s shortlist. So there is some flexibility if they miss on a guy (if they don’t get Penny, they probably go Chubb, etc.), but ultimately the clues are legitimate clues.

Which means that Pete is kinda nuts, but also hangs some huge brass balls.

By Jared Stanger

It’s not the player…it’s the price.

Thursday evening, after a nine-pick trade back with Green Bay; the Seattle Seahawks selected San Diego State running back Rashaad Penny in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Man.

I get most of what this is and what it’s about. I had been projecting Seattle to take a 220lb RB for months now.

I figured they’d want someone to replace CJ Prosise…which basically meant “more durable”.

And as late in the process as early this week, after Pete and John gave their pre-draft presser, I had sort of realized the personality type of RB they might target. Got it down to three guys.

I WANTED Seattle to be that kind of selective…parsing the RB group down to three. I even wrote that I’d want them to get their guy a round early if they had to. But in the case of these running backs, I thought we’d be talking about 3rd round players that you draft in the 2nd.

The big thing I did not account for was the combined effect of having limited draftpick inventory, combined with Seattle’s self-admitted smaller big board, combined with Seattle wanting to NOT make the mistake they made in 2017 when they traded back three times from their first pick and I think it cost them the player they really wanted and led to the whole Lemony Maliket series of unfortunate events.

So then I think these became a lot of Seattle’s thought processes: a big back that breaks a lot of tackles, but stays durable, with explosivity, to reinvigorate the run game, who also has a certain personality. And they wanted to do all of this without repeating mistakes of overtrading and missing him. It was an impossibly narrow target to hit.

John told reporters after the first round that they had offers for the 27th pick and that a team called to try to acquire Rashaad by trade…I mean, those are very convenient stories to have ready when most of the fanbase and draft media are like, “REALLY?? So soon???” Maybe we’ll never know if Penny would have still been available six picks later, twelve picks later, a full round later. Maybe years from now in a ’30 for 30′ special the GM from that mystery team will step forward and confirm he offered a trade for Penny.

Maybe John made the pick at exactly the right time, exactly the right price. But it feels like they overpaid. It feels like we got running back value at dollars on the Penny.

Those are my thoughts on it. Keep the change.

By Jared Stanger

I am sooo ready for this draft to happen. Let’s just do it already. So for this mock draft, I’m not going to spend a ton of time talking about the scouting breakdown of the players. I’ve written about most of these players before. This will be a bit more about how to execute acquiring this collection of players.

We’ll start by trading back the #18 overall. I’m going to hope New England has their sights set on QB Lamar Jackson and will move up to get him. I will trade Seattle’s #18 + #120 for New England’s #31 + #63 + #95. This trade is within 2.5 pts on the new trade chart.

And then, somewhere between the start of the 1st and the middle of the 2nd, I’m trading Earl Thomas to Dallas for their 2018 and 2019 2nd round picks (#50 this year). Then I flip #50 plus one of our 5th’s to Houston (who don’t have any picks in rounds 1, 2, and 5) for two of their three 3rd rounders. #50 + #146 for #68 + #80.

Seattle has had trades with both New England and Houston in the last year, so there is presumably good relationships there to accomplish these trades. I’m trying to think if Schneider has ever done a deal with Jerry but coming up blank. But I think it’s a reasonable deal.

These three trades would put Seattle’s board at:

1.31, 2.63, 3.68, 3.80, 3.95, 5.141, 5.156, 5.168, 7.226, 7.248, 7.250

That is 11 picks. We manage to stay in the 1st round, and also manage to get four picks on day two. Seattle has often been mentioned wanting to draft 10 times this year (and most years), but it’s pretty easy to find use of 11 or 12 picks.

Here we go.

#31 – OL Billy Price

In a first draft to this final mock I had Seattle trading with Cleveland and starting off at #33. I’m a little nervous Price doesn’t last that long. So I modified the whole thing to the New England trade.

I’m hoping with a good group of interior OL available in this draft and Price’s lack of athletic testing after tearing a pec muscle on the bench press at the combine, he will be available here. Price’s most recent position was Center, but he’s also had at least one year playing each of right and left guard. When I dug it up, I kinda preferred Billy’s tape at LG. Either way, between he and Pocic you’ll have both guard spots set for three years. Plus, Price is as S-T-R as they come.

#63 – DE Duke Ejiofor

After going OL first, it’s a no-brainer that they go DL next. I have strong suspicions this pick at this value might go to Rasheem Green if he lasts, but I’m sticking with the guy I’ve had all year in Duke. I just think he’s the better player of the “Michael Bennett” types. He’s more pro-ready today, and there’s still some upside left in him.

In the past I’ve done pretty well looking for a value DL in guys like Preston Smith and Yannick Ngakoue, and Duke is my hope to be that guy this year.

#68 – Shaquem Griffin

For me, this pick came down to Deshon Elliott at Strong Safety and Shaquem Griffin. I’m going with Shaquem for his presence, his speed, and his versatility. He might be the strong safety I wanted in Elliott, but he also might be a SAM, and/or a 3rd down DPR (designated pass rusher). I mean, the possibilities are pretty intriguing. It’s tough to totally pin down where Shaquem’s draft value will be, and this may be a reach, but I’d rather just get it done.

#80 – CB Isaac Yiadom

Another guy, like Duke, that I’ve been with for most of the year and I’m just sticking with him to the end. He checks pretty much all of the boxes of a Seattle CB. I’d like to get him a little bit later than this, but it’s not worth getting cute. Pair him with Shaquill, Shaquem, and hopefully a stud FS, and you might have a whole new LOB.

#95 – Jaylen Samuels

Samuels is more similar to Billy Price, in that I wasn’t really thinking about him most of the year because of position labeling. But after he ran 4.54s at 6’0″/225lbs it sort of dawned on me that he’s a straight running back. He’s certainly not much different than David Johnson at 6’1″/224lbs, 4.50s (Johnson has way better jumps, but the agility scores are VERY similar).

I’ve had a sense for a while that Seattle would go with one of the Scarbrough/Ballage/Freeman type of RB this draft, and after some late cramming on his tape; I kinda feel like Samuels is the best of the group. He’d be a dope replacement for Prosise, and has the upside to be really good considering how much he checks off the S-T-R list.

#141 – FS Dane Cruikshank

This is a bit of a flyer. Having traded away Earl, we need to find a new Free Safety. I don’t necessarily need THEE answer at FS (I have my eye on a guy as Seattle’s first pick in 2019), but I want a guy with some upside to compete with Macdougald and/or Thompson for 2018.

Cruikshank has mixed projection as both corner and safety, but I’m projecting him at FS because of his 31″ arms, 4.41s speed, and really nice tackling.

The other option for me here (depending on the board) is Tony Brown, who I also would like to try at FS. Brown concerns me with his back to the QB, but sliding him deep to single-high FS, with the play always in front of him, and his 4.3 speed, may show him in a new light.

#156 – TE Durham Smythe

Arguably the best blocking TE in the class. Others may want an offensive weapon at TE, but A) I’m not sure that fits with Seattle’s re-commitment to the run game, B) I’m not sure there are enough of those guys available in this draft to overpay to get one. I mean, there’s basically four or five above-average TE athletes this year. And that’s not a very high bar. Don’t chase what the earth hasn’t provided.

Besides, Smythe is underrated as a received due to Notre Dame’s problems at QB. Go back and watch him in the Senior Bowl.

#168 – DL Jullian Taylor

Taylor is getting lots of late helium thanks to an impressive pro day performance. If you can get him here in the 5th, I think he’s a better value than a guy like Taven Bryan in the 1st. Jullian will be a sort of replacement for Malik McDowell that you hope you can get both 5tech and 3tech reps from.

#226 – QB J.T. Barrett

Personally, I value Barrett in the 5th round, and if I hadn’t traded away that other 5th I would take him there. But in most mocks, including the consensus mock, Barrett is frequently seen as an UDFA. I’ll take him here and love having a guy with his resume backing Russell up.

#248 – LB Jacob Martin

These last two picks are basically just guys you don’t think you can get in undrafted free agency, but want to make sure you get them on board. I could do anything here…another running back, another linebacker, a placekicker, a wide receiver. There were a ton of interesting options that came through VMAC as official visits. I’m going with Martin because of his athleticism to potentially play linebacker, mixed with his experience as an edge rusher. We didn’t draft a true Cliff Avril type (instead going with a Bennett and then a McDowell), so this is a bit of an undersized attempt at a Cliff. But it also gives your new defensive coordinator (a former linebacker) two new guys that can both run under 4.59.

#250 – PK Trevor Moore

If Seattle hadn’t signed Sebastian Janikowski they might have been able to get a kicker in UDFA. But with two PK’s currently rostered, I don’t think a rookie would choose to be one of three. As a draftpick he won’t have a choice. Moore is one of the better kickers I’ve found from 40+ yards.

Final tally: 4 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams. I’m missing a WR, and I’d like to get a second RB, but those are both spots Seattle has had some success going through UDFA. With the RB depth in this class there should still be guys left in free agency. At WR, the team may have knowingly added via trade and vet free agency because they didn’t love the draft class.

1.31 Billy Price
2.63 Duke Ejiofor
3.68 Shaquem Griffin
3.80 Isaac Yiadom
3.95 Jaylen Samuels
5.141 Dane Cruikshank
5.156 Durham Smythe
5.168 Jullian Taylor
7.226 JT Barrett
7.248 Jacob Martin
7.250 Trevor Moore

By Jared Stanger

I’m a big fan of what I call drafting backwards. It’s in part an evaluation of the players that will be available in later rounds that you see as undervalued, and also part evaluation of position groups that dry up earlier than others. The farther back you start, the harder it is to predict which players will still be there. So for this story we’re going to focus on the 3rd round.

Seattle has historically had pretty good luck in the 3rd round. Russell Wilson is obviously their biggest success story in the 3rd, but Tyler Lockett and Shaquill Griffin have also been good finds in the 3rd.

If you can find a player that you really, really like that is pretty unanimously entrenched in the 3rd round, you can take his position group off of your board in the earlier rounds, and focus on other spots that may have more significant talent cliffs. Here are my 3rd round picks at most positions:

Cornerback – Isaac Yiadom

Isaac Yiadom is classic Seahawk CB size: 6’1″/190lbs, 32 1/4″ arms. He has adequate athleticism at 4.52s forty, 34.5″ vert, 10’00” broad, and a solid 6.85 cone. Yiadom is an excellent tackler who excels in Boston College’s press-man scheme with incredible patience and press technique. He maintains consistent over-the-top position with fluid hips to adjust for comebacks. And he plays extremely hard all the way through the whistle.

Yiadom has the most pro-ready technique of all corners in this class:

This is an example of Isaac’s motor:

Draftscout ranks Yiadom as the #100 overall player.

Defensive End – Duke Ejiofor

Duke Ejiofor is a guy I’ve been very high on all year who was forced to have shoulder labrum surgery after the end of the season. That injury/surgery has prevented Ejiofor from testing athletically, and has dropped his value into the 3rd round. His combine weigh-in was: 6’3″/264lbs, with massive 34 7/8″ arms. Wake Forest had Duke listed at 6’4″/275lbs during the season, and that would be a weight that I would target playing him as it helps allow him to continue playing with inside/outside versatility. This is the guy I target to play Michael Bennett’s vacated role.

It’s honestly a little baffling to me that Ejiofor isn’t valued higher. He has one of the best pass-rush repertoires in this class. He’s a smart player that makes many plays just based on great reads. And the unconfirmed reports of his athleticism suggest he’s a very good athlete.

To showcase Ejiofor I’m going to show some of his specific pass rush moves. Starting with the best spin in the class.

Inside to outside spin:

Outside to inside spin:

When Duke gets snaps inside; he moves to using a swim which is really solid:

This two hand swipe is really effective for him:

Then, when he has the outside rush setup, he has a nice inside counter:

There are more moves with lesser refinement (like his long-arm), but that still show promise. He also is a well-rounded DE playing the run and short passing game very nicely.

Draftscout has Ejiofor as the #120 overall.

Defensive tackle – Derrick Nnadi

As a general rule, I’m not a huge fan of drafting DT early. Unless you have a pretty good idea you’re getting Aaron Donald; I’d rather wait until the 3rd round.

Derrick Nnadi is a 6’1″/317lb, penetrating 1-tech in the mold of Jordan Hill.

Power is Nnadi’s best trait:

Draftscout has Nnadi as the #101 overall player.

Linebacker – Shaquem Griffin

Shaquem Griffin is such an interesting story with an interesting projection. At 6’0″/227lbs he is the size (and speed) of a big safety. He’s primarily played DE in the last two years. And most project him to be a LB as a pro.

I’ve primarily been thinking about him as a Safety because I want to use that speed, but recently I’m reminded of what a great passrusher Quem is. Whether you call him a S or a LB; he needs to be up in the box with chances at rushing the QB.

True sideline to sideline speed:

Draftscout has Griffin as the #89 overall player.

Quarterback – Kyle Lauletta

I don’t love a QB this early for Seattle with all of the other postions that need help, and the QB expected to be a backup. But clearly Seattle has been digging in to the QB market.

My observation is that Seattle seems to be looking for a QB at least 6’2″/210lbs, and they prefer a good athlete with a 4.7s forty. Lauletta is 6’3″/222lbs with only a 4.81s forty, but generally good athleticism. I’m generally okay with a QB with lesser armstrength and better FBIQ, but it’s tough to guess what Seattle looks for when the only QB they’ve drafted under PCJS is Russell Wilson.

Personally, I think Lauletta’s armstrength is fine. More importantly, he’s very accurate deep.

Again, during the Sr Bowl:

Draftscout has Lauletta as the #93 overall.

Running Back – Royce Freeman

There have often been running backs drafted in the 3rd round that have become really successful pro’s. It’s one of the best positions to wait on (especially in good RB classes).

I like Royce Freeman more than most. I think he’s a smart player, super reliable, super tough, without any major holes to his game. At 6’0″/229lbs he’s big enough to be your workhorse. With nice hands he’s versatile enough to be a 3rd down specialist. At 4.54s forty and 6.90 cone, he’s a better athlete than given credit for.

Draftscout has Freeman as the #105 overall.

Safety – Deshon Elliott

I can only assume Elliott’s projection is because he only ran a 4.58s forty. Which isn’t even that bad. On tape, he has some of the best tackling, best reads, best ball skills of all safeties this class.

Deshon is 6’1″/210lbs…not an overwhelming size, but big and physical enough to hold down a Strong Safety slot. Fourth in the country in 2017 for Interceptions.

Nice physicality:

What I like best about him is the way he reads the offense:

Draftscout has Elliott as the #178 overall. Ridiculous.

Now, the other thing this list suggests to me is the positions that don’t fit. Offensive line has a pretty steep cliff after the 2nd round, to me. Tight End is super shallow to begin with, but if you target a run-blocking TE like Durham Smythe/Will Dissly you can get that in like the 5th round. Wide receiver is a position that I think you can find throughout this draft, but 3rd round isn’t the best fit.

 

Winning drafts is about two things: nailing your early round picks, and hitting on a couple midround picks. And if you go into the draft knowing how you can draft backwards; then you’re already ahead of the game.

 

On Friday March 30th, 2018…Good Friday…everything changed.

And I was not prepared.

You’re not prepared when you get that call from your older sister and she has an unmistakable seriousness in her voice.

You’re not prepared when you turn the corner into your childhood neighborhood and you can’t get to your house because of all of the emergency vehicles in the cul de sac.

You’re not prepared when you reach your driveway and your younger sister, who arrived just before you, is awash in emotion and tears.

You’re not prepared when you enter your own childhood home and he’s on the kitchen floor with six to ten strangers are all working feverishly around him trying to get a heartbeat.

You’re not prepared when they load him into the ambulance and you can see through the front windshield the corner of the stretcher rise and fall to each compression of CPR.

You’re not prepared when the ambulance never leaves.

You’re not prepared when the lead paramedic gets out of the ambulance, looks at his watch, and starts walking up the driveway towards you.

You’re not prepared for the words.

And then comes the shit that you really had no clue how unprepared for you’d be.

You’re not prepared for the fact that ambulances transport to hospitals and don’t transport to medical examiners.

You’re not prepared to see his lifeless body brought back into your house and laid on the couch that sits in front of the framed picture of HIS mom and his step-dad.

You’re not prepared for the color of his face.

You’re not prepared to see the truest and deepest pain you’ve ever seen: when your mom kneels beside her partner of 40 years, and weeps uncontrollably. You’re not fucking prepared for that. THAT is pain.

You’re not prepared for death. I wasn’t.

On Friday night, as I stood frozen, compelled by a force inside me not to walk away, my stepfather, who gave me his name and raised me as his own, died inside that ambulance at the bottom of the driveway of my childhood home. He was only 68.

 

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In hindsight, it was a blessing that the paramedics fought as long as they did to try to save him because all of four of us kids, and the three of his five grandkids that are old enough to understand what was happening were able to be there. We were all able to have a private moment to say something to him before the medical examiner came. I’m thankful for that.

I’m thankful that about two weeks ago it was his birthday, and the whole family was together and had a beautiful evening, and I gave him a really big hug as I left that night. That was the last time I saw him and spoke to him. My last moment with him was a hug. Internally, I pretty instantly had so many regrets about big chunks of my relationship with him over the years. But my last moment with him was that hug.

I’m thankful that my older sister is such a rock. Resilient and graceful.

I’m thankful that both of my brothers-in-law, and soon-to-be sister-in-law, are so compassionate and giving.

I’m thankful that friends of the family brought over an entire Easter dinner.

But there is sadness, too.

I’m sad, and regret, that I was always so difficult.

I’m sad that my younger sister’s kids are too young to have formed strong memories of their Boompa.

I’m sad that my oldest nephew was recently growing so close to his Boompa…he’d walk over from his house and together they’d watch random things no teenager would normally have interest in, like “The Waltons”…and I was sad at how much he was affected on Friday night.

I’m sad that my brother won’t have his dad at his wedding this summer.

But mostly I’m sad for all that my mom has lost in this one fell swoop. Like, you can sort of tell how parents change once all of the kids are grown up and out of the house, and that “empty-nest” feeling hits. But now compound that by a factor of thousands. Maybe it’s over 15,000…for every day they had been together.

15, 000 days is a lot. It’s a lot of habits. It’s a lot of co-dependence. It’s a lot of physical property. It’s a lot of memories.

 

With almost 30 years in that same house, the volume of physical stuff in there is incredible, but it’s nothing compared to the memories. After 30 years, every single nook and cranny of that house has a memory association to him.

I watched my mom trying to process it all, and already dealing with the memories. I watched her, as she listened to the fire department chaplain, silently notice dad’s slippers stowed under the chair she stood beside, and then step into them one at a time.

I watched her Sunday sit at his favorite spot on the couch.

I listen to her.

I listen as she says things like, “I don’t know how to be alone.” I listen to her literally account for the very few months across her entire life when she lived alone. I listen to her plainly asking that all us kids come, visit, stay.

I hear you.

In my mind I already know that I will start to go over there 2-3 nights a week for dinner. I know that we will need to help her move out of that five bedroom house. I know that we need to pivot to supporting one another, and especially her, going forward.

I wasn’t prepared for any of this, but I will learn and adapt quickly to help her. I wasn’t prepared for death, but I will try to be more prepared for life. I promise.

I promise I will try to be a better son, brother, uncle, friend, man. I’ve already gone to someone that means a whole lot to me to ask her forgiveness for how I had recently acted. I meant every word I said.

I promise I will always think of you every time the Bears lose, and every time Elvis comes on the radio, and every time I write my last name, and every time Kevin Costner says, “Wanna have a catch?”

I love you.

Goodbye, Dad.

By Jared Stanger

The NFL Scouting Combine concluded on Monday, the league announced Tuesday the complete order of the this year’s draft, and so I figured it was a great time for my next seven round Seahawks mock draft.

If you missed it earlier, here is the breakdown of where Seattle currently has picks:

1.18
4.120
5.141 (Brown)
5.146 (Lynch)
5.168 (Marsh)
7.226 (Kearse)
7.248 (Brock)
7.250 (Marsh)

Eight picks total, but seven of them on day three. It just will not do. We need trades. We need 2nd’s and 3rd’s. Seattle has been a frequent entrant in the league trade rumors with the primary names mentioned being Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Michael Bennett. You’d have to figure at least one of them gets moved. Wouldn’t be surprised at two.

Personally, I’m moving the one that is the biggest asset of the three, who also happened to have walked up to another team and asked them to acquire him. And I will give Earl what he wants (or who he wants), and trade him to Dallas. Now, putting the right value on what Earl would fetch in return is a whole ‘nother matter.

Because it’s a hypothetical; I’m trading Earl to Dallas for their 2018 2nd rounder (#50), 2018 compensatory 5th (#171), and their 2019 2nd rounder. This moves Seattle UP to ten picks, and Dallas down to eight.

In addition to this, I will trade Seattle back from #18. Cleveland has a million picks, and quite a few in the range I would target moving Seattle to, so it’s an easy projection: #1.18 for Cleveland’s #2.33, #2.64, #4.123.

So the new, modified Seattle draft becomes:
2.33
2.50
2.64
4.120
4.123
5.141
5.146
5.168
5.171
7.226
7.248
7.250

Holy Shit, that’s a lot of picks. But really, I need one more. If you’re in a rebuild, you’ll need a lot of bricks.

#2.33 – RB Ronald Jones

In the “what have you done for me lately” world of draft speculating, Rojo missed the combine after pulling a hammy in his first forty, while Derrius Guice ran well. So people want to talk about Guice again as RB2, and Jones is more high to mid 2nd round. Blessing in disguise.

Quick aside on Guice…a few weeks, maybe a couple months ago, he was on Instagram live…I tuned in some time after it started, but when I did it was just him sitting in front of the phone/camera in a barely-lit room…somewhere behind the camera you hear a female voice…then Guice looks at whoever the woman was, and in an entirely-too-terrifying voice, he barks at her, “shut the fuck up”. This happened. I’ve interpreted it how I’ve interpreted it, and I have removed him from my board.

I think Ronald Jones has the potential to be special. At his floor, he gives you Alvin Kamara. At his best, he gives you peak Jamaal Charles.

#2.50 – OL Tyrell Crosby

I’m about 80% sure Seattle, and their new OL coach, are looking more for a Left Guard from a pretty solid interior line class, than a Tackle. I think Virginia Tech LG Wyatt Teller is a pretty legit name to watch, but he is probably available a round later than this.

The thing about Tyrell is: he can back-up (or replace) Duane Brown at some point, he can be your starting right tackle immediately…could he play Guard? I mean, he can’t be worse than Joeckel. Tyrell might be the 2nd-nastiest OL available this draft behind Quenton Nelson, so his temperament is great.

#2.64 – DE Duke Ejiofor

I could see Seattle targeting an edge rusher sooner than this. Potentially losing both Cliff Avril and Mike Bennett in the same offseason could be disastrous. But I just can’t stop feeling like Ejiofor is better than many of the DE projecting ahead of him. And Duke missing the combine after having recent labrum surgery kind of doesn’t help him, but does help the team looking to draft him.

Duke is my Mike Bennett mirror. Same size. Same usage (as hybrid DE/DT).

I thought about doing some more trading around to put Seattle into the 3rd round, but I really like the 2nd so much. It’s possible some of these 4th-5th round guys might come off in the 3rd round. I certainly have 3rd round grades on a couple of them.

#4.120 – DE/LB/S Shaquem Griffin

There’s a lot of split opinion on Shaquem. Many media (and Richard Sherman) think that his combine performance has moved him up into the 3rd round. But the report that came out Tuesday that Seattle was the only team to give Quem a formal interview at the combine suggests that the league still views him as different. Flawed, maybe. A mystery, at minimum.

Questions about his hand. Questions about which position he’ll play. I just don’t care. Get the guy in the building and find ways to use him. He is beyond special. Bigger than any safety at the combine. Faster than most of the corners. More sacks the last two years than Marcus Davenport and Arden Key. FIND.WAYS.TO.USE.HIM.

#4.123 – CB Isaac Yiadom

This really isn’t a great draft for the long, Seattle-type corners. It’s better for smaller guys that would pretty much be reserved for nickel in Seattle. And in that nickel category, this draft is exceptional.

The one guy that fits the bill for me in all the attributes I’m looking for is Yiadom. 6’1″/190lbs, 32 1/4″ arms, 4.52s forty, 10’00” broad jump, awesome motor. And the tape is fantastic press-man tape.

#5.141 – S Jeremy Reaves

I tend to think Shaquem ends up at Strong Safety, though he does have enough speed to play single-high Free. So we’re going to need another pick devoted to FS. Reaves is my pick. Similar size, similar speed, off the charts intangibles and football IQ.

#5.146 – TE Durham Smythe

Seattle currently needs two TE. Preferably, a receiving TE and a blocking TE. There are approximately three worthwhile receiving TE in this class. And you will have to pay a pretty penny to get one of them.

But the blocking TE are underrated and one of the better uses of a late pick. Smythe isn’t an athlete, but he runs good routes and he has good hands. I like the work he does as a blocker. He’s the TE you want if you’re planning on re-establishing your run game.

#5.168 – QB Kyle Lauletta

I’m not actually sure if Lauletta lasts this long, but backup QB isn’t a spot I want to spend higher than a 5th round pick on. Hopefully you get one of Lauletta or JT Barrett.

I think the pro comp for Kyle is Alex Smith. Very similar in their athleticism. Both get negged for their arm strength, but really both are fine.

#5.171 – WR Keke Coutee

Another guy I could see drafted earlier than this. Coutee didn’t hit the forty at the combine like I thought he might, but that will help him last this late.

If reports are true, Schottenheimer may like a talent like Keke. He would provide a great deep-threat replacement for Paul Richardson should Paul sign elsewhere.

#7.226 – DE/OLB Dorance Armstrong

This is a bit of an upside flyer. You like Armstrong’s 2016 tape and hope he can return to that form under better usage/coaching.

This is the Avril hedge.

#2.248 – RB Chris Warren III

My guess is that Seattle drafts two RB in a good RB class. Jones gives you lightning. I think Seattle will look late rounds for thunder. I think one option is Louisville’s Malik Williams, but another is the son of former Seattle RB Chris Warren.

Warren is a massive man at 6’2″/247lbs. He shows decent blocking. He averaged over 12ypc on his 2017 receptions. And, in spite of his less-than-spectacular forty time of 4.69s; Warren is over 57th percentile athlete (relative to his weight).

#7.250 – PK Trevor Moore

After missing on Harrison Butker in the draft last year, and Blair Walsh missing on Sundays, I’d like to see Seattle actually draft a kicker this year. I’ve targeted Trevor Moore for his value and accuracy over 40 yards.

The dirty dozen, final picks:

2.33 RB Jones
2.50 OT Crosby
2.64 DE Ejiofor
4.120 SS Griffin
4.123 CB Yiadom
5.141 FS Reaves
5.146 TE Smythe
5.168 QB Lauletta
5.171 WR Coutee
7.226 DE Armstrong
7.248 RB Warren
7.250 PK Moore

Double-dips at DE and RB, a few cool new players for the LOB, and a few players at positions of need. I passed on DT cause it’s a poor class, and I passed on LB cause a) it may be Shaquem, b) may be able to find one in UDFA.

By Jared Stanger

Saturday at the NFL Scouting Combine brought us field tests from QB, WR, and TE. I won’t be writing about the QB’s (I’m sure you can find plenty of others that have), but here are some of my favorite performances from the pass catchers.

We have SPARQ numbers from 3sigmaathlete.com as well, so we can already look at the composite athleticism. At TE, we can now see how this class compares with the stacked 2017 class.

Last year, there were nine TE that tested over 50th percentile. This year, there are four (but one is Jaylen Samuels…a more likely fullback). Last year, there were seven TE that tested as at least a sigma. This year, there’s only one…Mike Gesicki.

Almost a year ago to today’s date I tweeted that Gesicki would be the 2018 TE1, and today he proved me wrong.

He’s not TE1…he’s an extremely large WR. At least that’s what his athleticism suggests. A 4.54s forty, a 41.5″ vertical, a 10’9″ broad jump, a 4.10s shuttle, and a 6.76s three-cone. It all adds up to 2.4 sigma…which is better than all TE this year by 1.5 sigma, and all of the very good 2017 TE by 0.5 sigma. It’s an unbelievable performance.

Gesicki finishes 52% better athlete than frequently mentioned TE1 Hayden Hurst, and 70% better than Mark Andrews. Dallas Goedert has not yet tested. The numbers will send scouts and GM’s back to the tape on Gesicki. Typically, there aren’t many TE drafted in the 1st round, but Gesicki will likely now be one.

The 2018 WR class is also down athletically from the 2017 group. We saw 12 unique WR over 1.0 sigma last year, and only three have passed the mark this year. Those three: Dylan Cantrell, DJ Moore, and Courtland Sutton.

Sutton is the guy that I’ve had as my WR1 all year. His composite 86th percentile puts him 59% better than Christian Kirk and 79% better than Calvin Ridley. So, I think Courtland made some money today, but he’s not the guy that is my WR winner.

My WR winner is Tre’Quan Smith. After finding out about Brian Schottenheimer being hired as the new OC, reading about his preference for the air Coryell scheme; I was looking into the best deep threats in college. Tre’Quan was a guy I didn’t have a good feel for.

Today, Quan posted a 4.49s forty, 37.5″ vert, 10’10” broad jump, and a 6.97s cone at 6’2″/203lbs. That athleticism explains how Smith could be 15th in the country in YPC (19.85), 12th in receiving yards, 7th in explosive receptions, 4th in receiving TD’s (13).

A performance like today’s could move Tre’Quan from a 4th-5th round pick up into day two.

By Jared Stanger

For me, I look for something a little different in a Combine “winner”. To me, it’s not the guys that are expected to do well and then do it. It’s the guys that we think are unathletic and then show that they are, in fact, very athletic. Or maybe their athleticism hasn’t been thought of much at all.

My first winner is Oregon RB Royce Freeman. Weighing in at 6’0″/229lbs, Royce is one of the top 5 biggest RB in this class. He put together a workout that included a 4.54s forty (9th in group), 17 reps in the bench (12th in group), 34″ vert (12th in group), broad jump 9’10” (16th in group). But then here is where things get interesting…agility.

Freeman posted the 3rd-best three-cone drill at 6.90, and the 3rd-best short shuttle at 4.16. The two guys with better times in both agility tests weighed 193lbs and 205lbs, respectively.

To look at it as a pro-comp, I’m going to stack Royce up next to another guy that had a ton of “mileage” in college: Le’veon Bell.

Le’veon: 6’1″/230lbs, 4.60s forty, 24 bench, 31.5″ vert, 9’10” broad, 6.75 cone, 4.24 shuttle
Royce: 6’0″/229lbs, 4.54s forty, 18 bench, 34″ vert, 9’10” broad, 6.90 cone, 4.16 shuttle

From the Offensive Line groups, I will briefly acknowledge the day that Tyrell Crosby had (14th in forty, 8th in vert, 16th in broad) because that athleticism puts him ahead of the athleticism of the tackles generally projected ahead of him (McGlinchey, Brown).

I also think Wyatt Teller had a great day. 6’4″/301lbs with 34″ arms (nice for a guard), he ran a 5.24s forty, 30 bench, 29″ vert, the 2nd-best broad jump at 9’6″, the 5th-best cone drill.

But the guy that was a surprise winner for me was UCLA center Scott Quessenberry. I haven’t been watching the Center class very thoroughly, but I did a couple games on Kolton Miller, which allowed me to also notice Quiz. I thought the tape vs UW and Vita Vea was specifically noteworthy.

And then, today, Scott posted a workout of: 5.09s forty (unheard of for a center and 6th in this OL class), 33.5″ vert (2nd), 9’3″ broad (6th), and a 7.50 cone (6th). Every guy with a better forty and cone time weighs at least 6 lbs less than Quessenberry. So his SPARQ score could end up higher relative to weight.