By Jared Stanger
As I’ve been locating, cataloging, documenting various aspects of this draft cycle; it started to occur to me there might be a post, or series of posts, illustrating various tiers of draft capital investment. In a big-picture view, this can help to establish positional priorities, and it may also lock in the tiers of talent across all positions that can help evolve a general draft strategy of when to focus your draft picks vs when to bail from draft ranges.
The first position group I’ve decided to take a closer look at is one that draft media has long said is a strength of this year: the Edge rushers. As I dug into the position in as comprehensive a manner as I could; I discovered multiple new names to add to my board, which I think supports the idea that this is a deep group.
Edge also feels particularly relevant to the Seahawks due to the news/rumors that came out during the trade deadline build-up where-in impending free agent Edge Boye Mafe was being floated as a trade away candidate. Seattle may be anticipating a good Edge draft and willing to let Mafe walk as a free agent for a potential compensatory draftpick, and replace Mafe with youth.
The format for these pieces, which I’m currently planning to do for all position groups, will be to identify a candidate(s) at a high price point (1st-2nd round), a mid price point (3rd-5th round), and a low price point (6th round-UDFA). These candidates will be weighted as much to what I believe to be current Seahawk traits under John Schneider as the buyer for a Mike Macdonald menu.
High round:
I did some pretty intensive research into what I think Macdonald likes in his Edge players. I tried to be pretty objective to the traits I think he likes, I allowed each player to have one category where they fell below standard, but they could not have two strikes against, and this led to some interesting eliminations, and certainly to some VERY interesting additions.
After going through multiple levels of eliminations; I only came away with one name still in consideration that currently has projection in the top 64 picks/top two rounds: Missouri Edge Zion Young. It should be noted there are five names that survived my process, and Zion finished fifth of five of those names.
Young has 15.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 11 hurries in 11 games so far this year, and he has projection in roughly the middle of the second round.
Mid round:
Again, I only came away with one player in this range: Miami Edge Akheem Mesidor. Mesidor had some interesting pings in studying the group. He has posted 12.0 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 4 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in 10 games. His consensus draft ranking puts him in the third round. I think this is an interesting idea. A trench player from a blue chip program is never far from Schneider’s heart.
Low round:
This is where I felt things got really interesting. This is where I came away with three names that survived all rounds of elimination without accruing two strikes. All three of these guys currently are projecting as undrafted free agent types. Some of that will change with decent athletic testing at the Combine. Some of that will change simply because the media is less aware of these guys than NFL teams actually are.
#1 – From SMU we have Edge Cameron Robertson, who has missed three games this year, but was back in the lineup for SMU’s most-recent game vs Louisville on November 22nd. In the eight games Robertson has played, he has posted 9.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 3 hurries.
#2 – From Central Michigan, we have Edge Michael Heldman. There’s something about the recent chatter about the Seahawks acquiring Maxx Crosby, a highly productive college player that came from Eastern Michigan and was drafted in the 4th round, that makes me intrigued with Heldman and the next guy I will talk about. Heldman has recorded 13.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 9 hurries in eleven games this year.
(Just for reference…Crosby in his draft year posted 19.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 7 hurries in twelve games.)
#3 – From Western Michigan we have Edge Nadame Tucker. Tucker was part of my recent mock draft that was primarily tape-based, and he looks even more intriguing after seeing him come out as still highly relevant in this more analytics-based study. He has 18.0 TFL, 12.0 sacks, 12 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in twelve games. He did come up short in one of my metrics, but in every other category; he really looked like a potential fit for Macdonald.
This is a very exciting player that draft media is not caught up on…yet.
I did a separate piece of analysis this week just trying to gauge Seattle’s interest in various position groups, and it really did make it seem they may be putting emphasis on Edge rusher(s). But then the question becomes: “does emphasis mean chronological priority?” Does needing an Edge rusher on your roster mean you force a pick on one in a draft that may see some quality guys fall further down due to depth of the class? Now, I’m not saying they wait until rookie free agency to get one of the three guys I highlighted as currently projected there…I suspect that will change by April. But it might mean you can get one on day three of the draft (like Crosby).
My priority list currently goes: Tucker, Heldman, Mesidor. In that order.
Seattle Seamocks 