By Jared Stanger
The MLB Draft is less than two months away, taking place this year July 13th-15th and this could, not unlike the 2025 Seahawk draft, become an organization-changing draft. The change began months ago when Seattle moved up from the 15th overall pick to the third overall pick in the draft thanks to the draft lottery. In addition, Seattle was awarded pick #35 at the end of the first round in the “Competitive Balance round”. These two high selections, and the slotted draft bonus pool that comes with them, have put Seattle into the driver’s seat as the team in all of MLB with the biggest allotment of draft bonus pool.
The Mariners will enter the draft with $17,074,400 in bonus pool. This will mean tremendous flexibility in how they manipulate their selections in July. They will be able to buy out higher caliber, and/or more, of this year’s best high school players from their college commitments by creating bonus surplus with selective underslot picks/signings. This could mean a higher upside draft than we’ve seen in the Dipoto era.
Certainly, we will see the highest overall draftpick in the Dipoto era. The previous high pick was 2020 when Seattle drafted Emerson Hancock at #6 overall. And it ties the highest pick the Mariners have made since 2012 when they drafted Mike Zunino at #3.
Now, unfortunately, there is a downside. I think all of these draft windfalls might be coming at a pretty bad time in terms of the quality of the draft. I, personally, don’t really love this draft class. There is no Paul Skenes, no Travis Bazzana at the top of the class. I don’t love the consensus top three players in most mock drafts. The top prep hitter, Ethan Holliday, feels stiff and unselective. The top prep pitcher, Seth Hernandez, has mechanics that I really don’t like. The top college pitcher, Jamie Arnold, is my favorite of the three, but even him I have questions on.
I would love to see Seattle go sort of unexpected and take a mild reach on someone at #3, sign him for underslot, and then attack their next few picks for upside. I think this might be a draft you consider taking three high school players in your top four picks.
Seattle needs more pitching prospects. The M’s recently became MLB’s richest farm system with nine unique players on the top 100 list, but the top seven of their nine are all position players. The two pitchers recently added are their top two picks from the 2024 Draft, Jurrangelo Cijntje and Ryan Sloan, and are ranked #92 and #96 respectively.
They may force pitching pick(s) early and often this draft. But I wouldn’t necessarily do that.
For those concerned with giving underslot deals to a player at #3…that’s not really historically relevant. Travis Bazzana was signed for underslot at #1.1 last year and Paul Skenes was signed for underslot at #1.1 two years ago. Max Clark was signed for underslot as a high school draftee at pick #1.3 also in 2023. It’s actually easier, and therefore more common, to go underslot when you draft early because the slotted money starts so much higher.
#1.3 – SS, Corona High School, Billy Carlson
A high school teammate of Seth Hernandez, Carlson is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the draft. He’ll definitely stick at short going forward. And I think his bat is underrated. He’s got more power than he’s credited with, and there could be more coming as he gains strength. He’s currently listed at 6’1″/185lbs.
Carlson doesn’t have the profile of 2019 #2 overall draftpick Bobby Witt Jr who had a thicker build and MLB bloodlines, but I feel like Carlson has the makeup to become a guy that is a multi-year all star and Gold Glover in the vein of Witt, Gunnar Henderson, or (my closest comp) Dansby Swanson.
Carlson is committed to Tennessee and he’s the #6 player on the MLB.com big board. If you draft him at #3, where the slot bonus is $9,504,400, but sign him for a value of $8.5mill, a value somewhere between the 4th and 5th pick, you’ll have another $1mill for later picks.
#1.35.CB – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes
This is a very interesting pick location. You could try to flip your bonus savings from the first pick to a prep player that has slid down the draft due to signability requirements, you could treat this pick like your first pick from 2024 when you draft the best college righthander available at slot, or you could reach on a guy with lower ranking on national boards and just give him the bonus value at 35 that would be called overslot at 57. I’m kinda going with the middle option with Forbes.
Forbes is a 6’3″/220lb righthanded pitcher that won’t be 21 until two days before the draft. He was a two-way player his freshman year at Louisville, and so he’s technically only been focusing exclusively on pitching the last two years, and it’s only been 2025 that he’s been exclusively a starting pitcher. So there’s some reason to believe that his statline this year hides the fact that there’s still growth/upside to unlock in him.
At present, Forbes has used a repertoire featuring a fastball that is up to 100mph, that really explodes up in the zone, and a nasty slider, to strikeout over 14.00 per nine. His third pitch, a changeup, still needs work and more frequent use to stay in the rotation. But, at minimum, he should have a floor as an elite reliever a la Matt Brash.
The bonus for this pick is $2,758,300, and I’m probably trying to get Forbes for $2.5mill of that due to his young age and college eligibility still left.
If Seattle goes high school again here for an overslot deal…I prefer the bats including local product Xavier Neyens from Mount Vernon, MLB-legacy player Quentin Young (nephew of Delmon and Dmitri), or Sean Gamble. Neyens is a big-power, lefty hitting 3B. Young is probably a 3B as well, but has some of the best prep power from the right side. And Gamble reminds me a bit of Corbin Carroll, and probably profiles as a future OF that hits from the left side.
#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski
I love this draft throughout for lefthanded pitching. I hope Seattle comes away with 3-4 pretty intriguing southpaws in the top 10 rounds. Slawinski is probably my favorite lefty from the high school group. He’s not the velo king of the group, but I just love the clean mechanics and the pitchability. At 6’3″/180lbs, there’s enough frame to add some velo as he gets stronger.
The slot value for this pick is $1,636,800 and I definitely think we need to go overslot to get him away from his college commitment to Texas A&M. Last year, Seattle drafted Ryan Sloan, the #19 player on the MLB board, at pick #2.55 overall. They signed him for $3.00mill…well above the slot of $1.64mill. It might take a similar figure to get Slawinski secured. We have $1mill surplus from the first pick, so we’ll need another $363k savings from any of our later picks.
#3.91 – RHP, Corona HS, Ethin Bingaman
This is the first pick that is a little harder to predict. Historically, Seattle has used their third round pick on multiple occasions to save some bonus money to channel to their earlier picks. This year, however, after going underslot at #1.3, we might be able to target another prep player that is still available and give him overslot here. But just who that player might be is the hardest part to predict.
The bonus allotment for #91 is $851,800. Draft signees love some good, round numbers, so if we can bump that amount up to $1.0mill, we could get another upside prep player. Ethin Bingaman comes from the same high school team as Carlson and Hernandez (and Brady Ebel). He reminds me a bit of Patrick Forbes only three years earlier in his development. He’s currently a two-way player, but I’m going to take him as a pitcher. 6’1″/200lbs and with a fastball that presently touches 95mph with ride.
#4.122 – C, Texas, Rylan Galvan
I’m pretty intentional when I look for catchers in these baseball mock drafts, and Galvan fits pretty closely to what I’m looking for. Listed 6’0″/205lbs, and hitting .299/.453/1.088 on the year with 14 HR and 46 RBI. He will be 22 years old in June, so there may be some wiggle room for bonus. I’m underslotting him about $117k.
#5.152 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola
Coppola is an interesting case. He’s a 6’8″/245lb lefty starter that shows up as the #1 pitcher in my analytic study that I do every draft cycle. The problem is the guy has only made 15 appearances across four college seasons since 2022. He made one start in 2022, missed all of 2023, made 8 starts in 2024, and he’s currently at 6 starts this year. Huge medical redflags.
But when he’s been healthy, he’s been one of the toughest AB’s a college hitter can face. So we’re taking a calculated gamble here that our pitching program can unlock some way(s) to either keep him healthy, or simply recreate him as a dominant long-reliever, maybe closer. And, obviously, due to the risk, we sign him for only $400k…$61k underslot.
#6.182 – LHP, St Joseph, Colton Book
Another college lefty, Colton Book is a bit harder to find video of, but he popped in my pitching study as one of the best values in the draft. At 6’4″/210lbs he certainly looks the part on paper. He’ll be 23 years old in August, so we get him with some senior savings (~$50k). This year he has posted a 3.20 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9 line across 80+ innings. Signing bonus: $300k.
#7.212 – 3B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez
After studying about 100 of the top draft-eligible college hitters; Ray Velazquez came out as one of this year’s top 10. And there is some pedigree here, as Velazquez played for Vanderbilt in 2024. This year, he’s hitting .377/.487/1.261 with 18 HR and 57 RBI. Another slight underslot signing at $250k due to age (23 in September).
#8.242 – 2B/OF, Georgia, Robbie Burnett
I don’t have much reason for the order I’m mocking most of these guys past the top 150 picks, as most big boards available via the media don’t currently go beyond 150. I have no reference point for how the industry sees some of these players. I’ve only passively used the thought: I value catcher over third base, third base over second base, etc.
Burnett has been a very strong player for the Bulldogs this year, hitting .318/.492/1.224 with 20 HR, 66 RBI, and 17 SB. He has split time on defense between (in order): right field, second base, left field, center field.
These last three picks I’m back on track bonus-wise to allow each to receive exactly slot.
#9.272 – RHP, Indiana, Cole Gilley
Gilley is an over-aged (almost 24) righthander that has mixed between 11 starts and 6 relief appearances, and sports a combined 3.88 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9 over 62.2 innings.
#10.302 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith
Boston Smith is another catcher that ticks most of the boxes I’m looking for, but in this case he brings the bonus attribute of hitting lefthanded. A smaller physical backstop, Smith is 5’10″/195lbs and has hit .322/.494/1.222 with 21 HR, 60 RBI, and 15 SB.
Seattle Seamocks 