sports

Seahawks 2025 mock #1

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Three weeks into the NFL season, four weeks into the college season, and I’m already getting the itch to do some Sea-mocking. As I noted yesterday on my twitter; OTC has recently updated their projection of the 2025 compensatory picks, and in that Seattle gained a 6th round comp for losing Bobby Wagner. This comes in addition to the 4th and 5th they were already expected to get for losing Damien Lewis and Jordyn Brooks. These are not official, but it’s a good chance they’re close.

We lost a 5th rounder for the Leonard Williams trade, gained an early 6th rounder for the Darrell Taylor trade, and lost a late 6th rounder for the Trevis Gipson trade. So currently Seattle has 9 picks projected:

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th-comp, 5th-comp, 6th-CHI, 6th-comp, 7th

As one of only two NFC undefeated teams (MIN), Seattle gets slated into the NFC championship round in terms of draft position, which means roughly the #29 overall pick.

I ran some reader polls on my twitter this last weekend just to kind of gauge fan interest in a couple of draft areas. In the first, fans were about 3 to 1 in favor of drafting a QB to redshirt behind Geno Smith and Sam Howell for a year. And, in terms of the offensive line, fans are most interested in finding a long-term fix at Left Guard over Center or Right Tackle.

Personally, I have some pretty strong interest in finding a long-term fix at nose tackle for Seattle. This has been the biggest problem on defense so far this year…stopping runs right up the middle. Johnathan Hankins has not been great, and he’s a free agent. Jarran Reed gets listed as a nose tackle, but he’s not really a true nose, and he’s also a free agent.

There are some pretty interesting draft names at DT that are already getting floated in the first round: Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams (my favorite), Kentucky’s Deone Walker, and Michigan’s Kenneth Grant. In this exercise, all three are off the board in the top 25 picks. I’m not doing projections of where guys eventually will land in the actual draft. I’m looking at current market price. This means that guys that media are probably over-valuing are not available, but also guys that are under-valued are clear to draft. Both sides of that play into this mock.

#1.29 – QB, Mississippi, Jaxson Dart

We’re at the part of the season where the QB’s I think eventually climb into the top half of the 1st round are currently available in the 2nd in national mock drafts. Around this time last year, guys like Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix were not going top 10. It’s the same right now for 2025 class. Right now all of Cam Ward, Drew Allar, Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart are consensus 2nd round, while guys like Carson Beck, Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers are the 1st round names. I like, literally, all of the 2nd round names better than all of the 1st round names. I think Beck is Nick Foles-esque. Sanders is such an entitled shithead of a person, that I put more in the Johnny Manziel or Kyler Murray class of guys that will never be true leaders of men. And Ewers, to me, is more of a Jay Cutler vibe.

Amongst the guys I like…Ward kinda reminds me of Geno Smith. I don’t LOVE him, but there’s enough in the toolbox that he could be a top 10 QB in the league, and with the perfect surrounding cast, he might win a Super Bowl.

Allar is 4 of 4 of these guys, and I probably wouldn’t draft him until the 4th round. But, if I’m going to do that, I’m probably just gonna pivot to the next tier that is more like 5th-6th round.

Milroe is fascinating. He’s got the highest marks among all seven of these QB’s in certain traits (arguably, the traits that I think lead to continuing success in the NFL). But he’s also got, probably, the most glaring flaws. If he’s Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott; he’s probably well worth a 2nd round pick. Would I take him in the 1st?? Tough call. We’ll know better in February.

And Dart, to me, is the best combination of now skill and future upside. He’s definitely the highest floor guy, to me. He can run the ball plenty, but if you told me you were asking him to be a pure pocket-passer; I think he’d still be great. Listed at 6’2″/225lbs, Dart is plenty stout, and he’s at the low-end of what I think is acceptable QB height. He’s got plenty of arm, but that won’t be his standout trait at pro day. To me, his ball-placement is top 2 or 3 in this class.

#2.62 – OG, Georgia, Tate Ratledge

I wouldn’t mind seeing John Schneider getting aggressive on an interior OL in this draft. But he probably won’t. I don’t know which OL pick hurt him, but he’s got a pretty substantial blindspot to the concept now. This is part of the plus/minus of having all these notebooks (long memory) he keeps…sometimes you over-correct when you should just let nature and the turning of the next class be its own correction.

Ohio State’s LG Donovan Jackson looks VERY good in his season debut last week, but he’s generally seen as a 1st round guy. Ratledge is currently listed as a late 2nd round name. He’s currently on the shelf with a foot/ankle injury that is expected to sideline him until November. He’s listed 6’6″/320lbs. I wouldn’t mind if we found out he was slightly shorter at the Combine, but otherwise very solid build.

Historically, I believe he has only played right guard, and I would want him to play left. I can’t imagine the challenges of moving from RG to LG are nearly as big as moving from RT to LT, so I’m guessing he can make the move. Ratledge is a character. He looks really athletic on tape, and he’s certainly got some nasty to him.

#3.93 – LB, Alabama, Deontae Lawson

Seattle has two starting linebackers playing on one-year deals in Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson. Maybe they’ll re-sign one, but I doubt they keep both. I don’t get the impression that they are super in love with 2024 LB draftpick Tyrice Knight. Like, I don’t think they want to green-dot Knight.

So we go back to the well in the draft to try to find a long-term piece at ILB. Knowing the free agency picture; I’ve been doing a fair amount of digging at the spot, and I was pretty happy when I got to Lawson. Listed 6’2″/239lbs; he more closely resembles the ILB we were seeing 7-8 years ago. The last couple of LB draft classes, there was nary a man that was over 230lbs. I like Deontae’s bigger body profile. I like his instincts. I like the way he moves almost like a running back cutting through the wash when he gets downhill towards the line of scrimmage.

#4.131 – TE, Texas, Gunnar Helm

It’s still early in the Ryan Grubb offense evaluation, but the early results don’t really show much preference for using the TE. We’ve seen exactly 6 targets to the combined TE group in the first three games. At UW, I don’t have the target numbers, but the reception numbers averaged about 4.5 catches per game to tight ends.

As much as people thought Seattle might target Brock Bowers in the 1st round last year; I just don’t know that this staff needs or wants a bigtime TE. We drafted a 4th round TE last year in AJ Barner. We’ve got Noah Fant signed through the end of 2025. We just need to draft a replacement for Pharoah Brown, who is only on a one-year deal.

Helm is listed 6’5″/250lbs, and he’s got 11 catches for 197 yards and 1 TD so far this year.

#4.136 – LB, Iowa, Jay Higgins

This was the first pick in this mock where I kind of found a cluttered board. It was mostly defense, but also potentially another stab at finding a Center of the future. I could see Seattle commit to Connor Williams going forward (he’s only 27), so I’m actually probably gonna punt on Center this year. Plus, there haven’t really been any standout centers so far.

I’ve recently made an observation that, in years past, when Seattle has drafted two players from the same position in the same draft…one of those two picks should have been used on a quarterback. This year, I’ve already drafted a QB, so I’ve cleared myself to double-dip.

Higgins is listed 6’2″/232lbs and has been a tackling machine for the Hawkeyes in 2023, ranking 3rd in the country per game, and 1st in total combined tackles. A 5th-year Senior; Higgins has paid his dues with all five years at Iowa…emblematic of the way coach Kirk Ferentz runs his program.

#5.172 – DL, Mississippi, JJ Pegues

I think DT is probably a bigger need for Seattle in the 2025 draft, than to wait until the 5th round. But as of right now, the 1st round DT are probably being over-valued, and all of the rest of the DT are probably being undervalued. So these next two picks are currently available super late…technically later than this…and I’m just slotting them here for now.

Pegues is a super interesting player. He’s listed 6’2″/325lbs, but Ole Miss have played him at DE, which isn’t too crazy, but it starts getting pretty nuts when you see that they’ve given him 5 rushing attempts. We’re not talking fullback, blocking reps. The guy has five designed runs, with two TD in four games, and on at least two of his carries, the guy leapt the pile. AND they’ve used him as additional OL in short yardage.

I definitely was drawn to him by his DT work, but I’m not gonna exclude the idea of him becoming a fullback/goalline option on a roster that isn’t currently carrying a fullback.

If you’re playing two positions; you get two highlights in the mock draft. Pegues at DT:

#6.180 – NT, Florida, Cam Jackson

I really think the true nose-tackle is something Seattle needs the most this draft. But I also wonder if it’s a spot that they will pay high value pick to acquire. I spent maybe an hour researching the draft class of nose tackles and immediately found ten candidates. This might be a great year to try to find one of these guys late. (**Technically, I also had Pegues on my NT shortlist, but I think his skillset is broader than JUST the nose. Hence, he gets picked earlier of the two.)

Jackson is one of 2-3 of my NT list that currently show up in the undrafted free agent range. So I’m already giving him more respect than the national media, even though 6th round seems late.

Jackson is listed 6’6″/342lbs. He has 2.5 career sacks in his three years at Memphis, plus two years at Florida. I don’t have misconceptions that he has some hidden passrusher in him. He would be picked to join the DL rotation as a run-stuff specialist. Period.

#6.210 – OT, Wisconsin, Riley Mahlman

Seattle’s RT situation is so cluttered. Incumbent starter Abe Lucas is injured and yet to play in 2024, with fears that his injury is degenerative and he’s not long for his playing days. George Fant is recently injured and placed on IR to miss at least three more games this year, and he has another year on his deal for 2025. Sataoa Laumea played a lot of RT in college, but is listed by the Seahawks as a Guard. Mike Jerrell was drafted in the 6th round of 2024 draft and is currently behind Lucas, Fant, and Stone Forsythe on the depth chart. Current RT starter Forsythe was a 6th round pick in 2021, and is currently set to be a free agent after this year.

While I wouldn’t mind if Seattle spent significant Draft capital to either trade for, or draft, a right tackle of the future…it doesn’t feel like that is what they will do. But if we spend another 6th round pick at the spot, we at least replace Forsythe straight-up, and then we work to see if the combo of Lucas, Fant, Jerrell, and draftpick can net us a decent starter for 2025.

Mahlman is a redshirt Junior for Wisconsin, listed at 6’8″/308lbs. He caught my eye while I was watching fellow Badger OT Jack Nelson. Mahlman is the natural RT, so we don’t have to do the projection on the side switch.

#7.243 – DS, Oklahoma State, Trey Rucker

This was a tough pick. I really like this class of RB, which I haven’t found room for yet. I didn’t give them any WR, and there are always WR (which can include into UDFA). And I haven’t drafted them a replacement for 2025 free agent K’von Wallace. Julian Love is under contract, Rayshawn Jenkins has another year left, Coby Bryant now seems to be a safety and he has another year on his rookie deal, and Jerrick Reed is still on the PUP.

It’s not a high priority position, but I do think that safety is a lowkey deep position going into this draft. I literally wrote down three safety names that are currently ranking as UDFA that I could have chosen from for this one pick alone.

I went with Rucker because he’s listed 6’0″/210lbs, and he’s third in the country in tackles per game with 13.25. He’s probably the future of the safety position where you’re kind of hybrid safety/linebacker. He also has 2 INT, 1.0 TFL in four games.

Mariner draft week mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re down to four days before the beginning of the 2024 MLB Draft, and I’m probably not going to have much time to do long-form writing the closer we get. So this is probably my last chance to get a full-mock update in.

Mariners’ scouting director Scott Hunter had a little press huddle sometime last week in which he gave some thoughts on the state of this draft class. A lot of what he said we already knew: there’s maybe 10 top of the first round locks (I put it at 12), which means starting around #11-13 we’re into a second tier of players, which surely affects Seattle at #15.

In my mock last week I pivoted to an underslot player in the 1st, to allow for buying overslot names rounds 2-5, and Hunter discussed (unprompted) that this might be a thing for Seattle this year.

He also talked about high school pitching. I think the greater press’ take that his thoughts point to the M’s drafting a prep pitcher in the 1st round is mistaken. I don’t think that’s really what he said, and it’s not what this draft class allows for. There are maybe four HS pitchers with first round projection, only three of which will probably still be available when Seattle is on the clock. That isn’t the way to hack this draft. Hunter specifically talks about prep pitching available from the back half of the first round through the 50’s…to me, this means from pick #16 to pick #59. This means it misses Seattle at #15, but is very much in play for Seattle at their second round pick at #55. This part I buy.

And if you look at mlb’s draft board, they have HS pitchers listed top 15 like this:

15- LHP Cam Caminiti

After the top 15 overall, they have prep pitchers listed like this:

16- RHP William Schmidt
19- RHP Ryan Sloan
30- LHP Kash Mayfield
36- RHP Braylon Doughty
41- LHP David Shields
46- RHP Joey Oakie
51- RHP Bryce Meccage
52- LHP Dasan Hill
56- RHP Dax Whitney
57- LHP Boston Bateman
58- RHP Levi Sterling
59- RHP Chris Levonas

See what I mean? One in the top 15. Two from 16-30. Two from 31-45. SEVEN from 46-60, including four after M’s pick at #55. This tracks.

#1.15 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman

I opened with Holman last week, and I’m sticking with him to head into the draft. In fact, I found a piece of data in the last few days that only reaffirms my plan: Holman is primarily thought of as a 92-94mph fastball guy, but in 2023 when he was pitching for Alabama, a prominent college baseball outlet published that he touched 98mph. His mix of present stuff, 6’4″/201lb frame, and a history of touching higher velocity in SEC play, leads me to believe he’s gonna to tick up in the not-so-distant future.

And my previously stated plans to sign Holman, the #45 overall player, to an underslot bonus deal at #15, still holds. I did do some research on underslot deals in the 2023 draft, and it was rare to find discounts of over $1mill, like I had hoped. Brock Wilken signed for about -$871k underslot as the #18 overall pick, but for the most part deals were closer to $600k underslot. The slot at #15 is $4,880,900. If we can get Holman for $4mill even…awesome, but I think $4.2mill might be more realistic. Still, that would pocket us $680,900 for future picks.

#2.55 – RHP, Blackfoot HS, Dax Whitney

This is, obviously, the big change from last mock. I was previously thinking of a college bat in the 2nd round like when they got Tyler Locklear in 2022. But, really, in 2022 Seattle had two picks in the 2nd, and the other ended up being prep RHP Walter Ford.

Whitney is a pretty late-riser in this cycle as a guy coming from the rarely-scouted baseball state of Idaho. But he’s a 6’5″/193lb righty with a present fastball sitting 94mph, but touching 96. Adding muscle to his long, lean frame should really help him bump that up to closer to a 97mph regular velo, that can touch 99. He has two current secondaries that are pretty legit, and is working on his changeup to eventually give him a true four-pitch mix.

Whitney has a college commitment to Oregon State. The bonus slot for #55 is $1,641,800. Last year, Cleveland signed Alex Clemmey away from college for $2.3mill at pick #58, and Pittsburgh got Zander Mueth signed for $1.8mill at pick #67. In 2022, the Cubs needed $3.01mill to secure Jackson Ferris at pick #47 as the high end, but other prep pitchers signing that year included: 46- Jacob Miller ($1.70mill), 50- Jackson Cox ($1.85mill), 57- Cole Phillips ($1.50mill), 74- Walter Ford ($1.25mill). I think we should be able to get Whitney away from OSU for $2mill, which would be $358,200 overslot. Running total gives us $322,700 savings.

#3.91 – LHP, IMG Academy, Blake Larson

While doing diligence to see if there are any other prep LHP that I really like (after Caminiti), I came upon Larson in the last few days. I hadn’t watched him before that, but he’s 6’3″/180lbs with a present fastball touching 96mph with run. There is a very legit, high-spin slider as secondary offering, and he’s working on a change as third offering. I love the stuff, it’s more a question of: can he get more refined, and lock in better control as he matures?

Larson has a college commitment to TCU. He played his junior year of high school in Iowa, but this year he moved down to Florida and the prestigious IMG Academy on the cusp of the draft. Why would you make a huge geographic move in your senior year of high school for any reason other than increasing your draft profile? Meaning: you want to be drafted and you want to sign. The M’s bonus allotment for this pick is $812,900. I’m going to use all of my savings so far, and dip into some future money, to get Blake up to a $1.2mill bonus. We’re now $64,400 in the hole.

#4.121 – 1B/DH, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in this class. MLB has him as a 5th-6th round player…likely because, even though he has history of playing catcher and outfield in college, he’s limited to 1B/DH going forward. So, I’m hoping to steal him here in the 4th and create a nice, high-floor base for the M’s 2024 hitting class. Collins is also almost 23 years old, so he should be signable to an underslot deal. I’m hoping for $500k, which would save an additional $94,900. Current savings: $535,600.

#5.154 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

It’s an intended strategy to take pitching earlier than hitting in this draft. A) The Seattle farm is stronger on bats at the moment, B) the way this draft stacks up, the most projectable bats are either in the top 20 overall, or available after the 10th round. So, in theory, we should be able to pay premium prices on arms, and then circle back to bats later-ish. And it’s not unheard of for Seattle to do this. In 2019 they drafted five consecutive pitchers to start the draft, and eight of their first nine as pitchers. Five of those eight arms have made it all the way to MLB.

Dohm, like the pitching version of Collins, has some of the best pitching metrics in this draft for me versus SEC competition. There are some questions about health, which led to only 29.1 innings pitched this year. But I love the frame, I love the stuff, and I love the control. He’s 21 years old with eligibility remaining, but hopefully a full-slot deal here in the 5th gets him signed.

#6.183 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

I’ve had LMG in prior mocks, and usually in later rounds, but I’m placing him earlier in this one because his talent warrants it, and because I currently need a senior signing to get back in the black for overall bonus money. We’ll call it a $125k bonus. We are now back to $139k underslot overall.

#7.213 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

More senior signings. Cranton is a pure reliever with a fastball that is already 98mph and has awesome metrics, to go with another plus pitch in his slider. Already 23 years old, but you’ll see this repeatedly in this draft class due to being at the back end of the Covid class. Relievers, especially, with this kind of present stuff should move really quickly through the minors. Another $125k bonus senior signing.

#8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar has a pretty high-floor profile for another senior sign candidate. Primarily a shortstop in college, his profile probably moves him to 2B as a pro. Third consecutive $125k signing gives us $364k in underslot savings.

I’ve sort of earmarked the 9th round to be an overslot pick. I don’t know if it’s a highschool player, but it might be. There are definitely two college relievers with multiple years of eligibility remaining that I’m eying here. Actually, as I’m writing this, I’m wondering if I split the difference on the bonus surplus I have; could I get both of my guys in the 9th and 10th? Let’s try it.

#9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

Walters is recently returned from Tommy John surgery, but came back with pretty impressive results posting a 1.024 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9 and only 1.3 BB/9 in 13.2 innings pitched in relief. Giving him even split of the bonus surplus remaining means he gets $418,450.

#10.303 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a returning entrant in my mock drafts who I’ve been over-drafting his draft projection due to the fact he’s technically a redshirt sophomore after missing 2023 with an injury. But he’s draft eligible at 21 years old. I had been planning, in previous mocks, to get him around 4th-6th round where the slot bonus ranges from $594k down to $334k, with the idea of giving him $400k at whichever round he ended up. The $418k I have left is perfect.

Zsak made 6 starts this year across his work at Rutgers and two made in the Cape league, in addition to 15 appearances in relief. I’d love to try him as a starter for as long as possible, knowing that his stuff will definitely tick up if we move him back to the pen as means to get him to the show faster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

Picks 11 and 12 of this mock I’m going away from pure stuff and looking for high-pitchability, innings-eaters. Kmatz presently maxes out about 93mph, but he knows how to maximize it up in the zone, and he has one of the prettiest curveballs I’ve seen in the class. And he controls it beautifully.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia, again, doesn’t wow you with velo, but he’s doing enough with pitch sequencing and control, that he managed 11.6 SO/9 in his first year pitching for a Power 5 school. He’s got a big 6’4″/218lb frame, too, that lets you dream on more velo down the road.

#13.393 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Part of my strategy in this draft is to stock up on arms early, and find those sneaky hitters in late rounds (and undrafted free agency…which should be deep this year) that are probably small-school, but have great hit metrics (think in terms of Ben Williamson, Brock Rodden, etc). Shallenberger is at the top of that list. He reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence in that nothing he does is super fluid, and maybe you even go as far as to say “awkward”, but he’s a gamer. He hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and 45 BB to 28 SO.

#14.423 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a senior of almost 24 years old, but he hit .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI with premiere exit velocity and a penchant for clutch hitting in the CWS. He plays a very solid defensive 3B, as well, and he can switch-hit.

#15.453 – 1B, Morehead St, Roman Kuntz

The Seattle farm is chock full of middle-infield potential thanks to multiple years of drafting there early and often, so I’m looking to take multiple stabs this draft at the corners of the infield. Kuntz is listed at 6’3″/180lbs, but looks way bigger on tape. Already a 23-year-old this March; Roman hit .366/.482/1.341 with 33 HR, 100 RBI, and 50 BB to 34 SO.

#16.483 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Ryan Ure

This is a pure velo play. Ure has a ton of redflags with injury history and lack of control, but he’s been up to 103mph from the left side. Well worth the risk this late, and it’s very likely another team has risked it earlier.

#17.513 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is a guy that really caught my eye in the recent MLB Draft League. At Arizona this year he was 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, but in the draft league he’s ticked up to 3.45 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 14.4 SO/9. The breaking ball is pretty special.

#18.543 – RHP, William & Mary, Carter Lovasz

I found Lovasz just doing diligence on relievers. He’s got a good frame at 6’3″/185lbs, and I don’t have numbers on his present velo, but he’s definitely using it well up in the zone to the tune of 3.12 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 7 saves last year.

#19.573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

If there’s one thing in this draft that I wanted to do, but that the player pool really didn’t convince me to do, was to draft one or two higher end catchers. I still think Harry Ford ends up traded before the deadline, and there’s not a ton of talent in the farm. I wanted to find a catcher that has some power, has some defense, has some athleticism. Schiavone ticks a lot of that. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 9 SB, and a 38% caught stealing rate. Yeah, that’ll do.

#20.603 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

This pick could really be anything. I’ve got a first baseman in Tyler Macgregor I really like. I’ve got an outfielder named Ryley Preece that I think has some nice tools. I went with Vogel because he’s got good power at a premium defensive position. He hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16 SB.

I kinda recognize that this draft feels counter-intuitive to the state of the Mariners. But, really, the state of the MLB team and the state of the farm system are not the same. Whereas, the MLB roster is at a massive deficit on hitting, and the star of the show is our big league pitching…it’s pretty opposite on the farm. There is quite a deficit of pitching. We have a few starters that are out-performing draft position, with a few more that have been on longterm IL, but we have next to nothing exciting or MLB-quality coming out of our respective bullpens. And we’ve been getting decent early returns on middle-round college bats (Locklear, Williamson, Rodden, Schreck, which would work really well with this draft class.

This draft, more than any recent draft, is so dependent on how Seattle manages their first pick. If they can do something smart, and strategic, with that pick; they could be en route to a very interesting class.

Mariner mock July

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’m writing this on Sunday, June 30th; the MLB Draft round one will begin two weeks from today. There’s been an ongoing theme of this draft cycle for at least a month now that Seattle, drafting at #15 overall, is going to miss out on the true 1st round talents of this draft, which is only about 12 players deep. I’ve been doing mocks as if one of those guys will (miraculously) fall to them. Maybe that will happen, but I’m feeling more and more anxious that it won’t. So this mock represents my big pivot to a more plausible scenario.

The top 12 names go, in no order: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone, Braden Montgomery, Nick Kurtz, JJ Wetherholt, James Tibbs, Konnor Griffin, Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage, Cam Caminiti. If any of these guys is available at #15; you just don’t think about it, and you take him. We need guys like Bryce Rainer, Christian Moore, and maybe like a Seaver King to be the “upsets” in the top 14 to get a 12 to us.

The more I’ve settled into the likely outcome that a top 12 fall doesn’t happen, the more I’ve come to think that maybe the hack of this draft for Seattle is: to accept they aren’t getting a “1st round talent”, and pivot to an idea that the next tier of names is like 30 players deep of a very similar grade, and to draft one that will allow you to backlog some significant slot bonus money by signing an underslot deal, which then allows them to try to make moves on bigger talents on day two.

When Seattle acquired Gregory Santos from the White Sox, part of the package going to Chicago was the #68 overall pick, which carries a bonus pool allotment of $1,197,200. I look at that figure and think that’s kind of the minimum amount I’d like to try to save in any combo of 1st-2nd round signings, and siphon that to day-two picks.

Looking at Seattle’s draft history under Jerry Dipoto…they have been ELITE at drafting and developing college pitching to completion as MLB players. They have NEVER graduated a high school pitcher from prospect to their own successful pro player, and they don’t even have any candidates currently above high-A level (*edit: as I was writing this, the news broke that 2021 high school 3rd rounder Michael Morales was promoted to AA), so they are at best extremely slow at developing them. The report card is still incomplete on how successful they’ve been drafting and developing prep hitters through the farm, but with Harry Ford and Cole Young doing decent at AA, plus promising early returns on Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Aidan Smith…I don’t think you’d hesitate if the right guy was there. Perhaps the second-best draft/develop category for Seattle has been college hitters with Evan White winning an MLB Gold Glove, Kyle Lewis winning ROY, Cal Raleigh being the best power-hitting catcher in baseball, and MLB at-bats from Cade Marlowe, Austin Shenton (for Tampa), Zach Deloach (for CHW), and now Tyler Locklear. These are things you HAVE to consider if you’re Jerry and Scott Hunter. Self-scout.

The current media buzz on Seattle’s interest(s) at #15 is basically useless. Jim Callis, in his mock from last week, has Seattle drafting college switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje. He specifies, “the Mariners would like to restock their pitching supply”…awesome, they do need to do that. Callis continues, “(Trey) Yesavage is the dream here”…great, he’s pitcher 3 of 3 on my board, no complaints. He mentions Cam Caminiti before Cijntje, but Cam is off the board at #13 to San Francisco, which is one of the most consistent mock picks I see across all drafts. BUTTTT….in his mock from June 6th, Callis had Seattle drafting college 3B Cam Smith, but M’s are quote, “pursuing every demographic.”

Local writer that I really enjoy, Joe Doyle, on May 28 had Seattle draft prep LHP Kash Mayfield, and writes that, for Seattle, “it seems to be pitching, pitching, pitching.” Jump forward to June 25th, Boyle pivots to prep athlete Theo Gillen as his pick at #15, and his quote is, “Seattle seems to prefer college performers at this spot.”

There’s a lot of contradiction and inconsistency there at first blush. But, if you really break it down…Callis’ two most recent projections are 1) college pitcher, 2) “every demographic”. Doyle’s two theories are 1) pitching, 2) college. You can actually, potentially, draw a through-line there that becomes a college pitcher. Kinda interesting.

1.15 – RHP, Louisiana State, Luke Holman

If I remember correctly, I had Holman in my first mock of the year. That was when he was at the apex of his buzz this year. That faded a bit as the season progressed, but he’s landed at #45 overall. Just for reference, the other names mentioned by national media in mocks and their MLB rankings: #14 Cam Smith, #19 Ryan Sloan, #25 Cijntje, #27 Slade Caldwell, #28 Gillen, #30 Mayfield. I mean, Seattle is probably reaching on their pick at #15. Why not get a discount on that reach?

Holman ranks as a top-10 pitcher in this class in my pitching metric. He’s not as hot of a name as Hagen and Chase because those guys throw 99mph and struck out 17 per nine each and showed great control. Valid. He’s also not as hot a buzz as guys like Cijntje and Brody Brecht as well, but they only seem to be ranked higher than Holman because of velo. Not valid. I think their projectability is actually less than his.

Holman is a 6’4″/201lb starter that presently touches 94mph. So he’s not starting from that bad of a place velo-wise. And the frame is great to add some strength in time. There’s a decent amount of pitchers, like Degrom or Cole, that win Cy Young’s with elite velo. But there’s this entire pocket of guys that do it with control, secondaries, and pitchability. Scherzer at the high end, but I’m also looking at Shane Bieber and, especially, Corbin Burnes.

Burnes was a 6’3″/245lb starter when he came out of St Mary’s in the 2016 Draft. His fastball was in the 92-95 range and MLB ranked him the #39 prospect pre-draft, and he fell to the Brewers at #111 overall in the early 4th round. His stat line in his last year in college ran: 2.48 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 10.6 SO/9, 3.64 SO/BB. Luke Holman this year at LSU: 2.75 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 12.5 SO/9, 3.85 SO/BB. I like this profile more than the national media. If you don’t think you can get him at #55; I kinda don’t mind doing this at #15 with the underslot caveat.

Bonus slot for the #15 pick is $4,880,900. Bonus value at #45 (where Holman is projected) is only $2,072,800. If you split the difference, you’re at $3,476,850…call it $3.5mill, and you’ve pocketed $1,380,900 for future use.

Backup plan: similar story, but I like going underslot on prep RHP Joey Oakie. He’s literally next on MLB’s big board behind Holman at #46. Something about his mechanics and stuff reminds me of Bryan Woo. I think $3.5mill would get him out of his commitment to Iowa U.

2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

This pick, to me, is so similar to the pick of Tyler Locklear at 2.58 in 2022. Super advanced hit metrics but dragged down big boards by his, presumed, defensive positional limitations. But when you dig into his full profile…he’s not too far removed from being a left-handed hitting catcher (2 starts at C in 2024, 13 starts in 2023). He’s also been athletic enough at 6’3″/236lbs to play 20 games in the outfield in his Georgia career.

But the carrying tool is the bat. He hit LEADOFF for the Bulldogs for most of the year to the tune of .354/.574/1.346, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 56 BB, 32 SO. The RBI number probably would have been higher if he wasn’t hitting leadoff. By comparison, Player X in college: .374/.469/1.128, 14 HR, 60 RBI. That’s Pete Alonso.

In theory, this is a guy that would move fast through the minors as a 1B/DH. Could he debut straight out of spring training in 2026? Just as the contract for Mitch Garver is over and not renewed.

This pick is also somewhat reminiscent of the 2nd round pick of Ben Williamson last year, in that Williamson was drafted at #2.57 overall as a 22-year-old Senior, who signed for -$836,500 underslot. Collins is a 22-year-old Senior, and the bonus slot at #55 is $1,641,800. Coming from an SEC school, I don’t know that you underslot him down to $600k like they did for Williamson, but keeping him at a $1.2mill bonus would still save you $400k+ to use on day two.

These first two picks have saved Seattle a combined $1,822,700 of bonus pool.

Backup plan: any number of slight reaches on college pitchers like RHP Daniel Eagen, LHP Ryan Prager, RHP Ryan Forcucci who score very high on the pitch projection metric.

3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

In 2023 Seattle drafted Tommy John patient and Wake Forest RHP Teddy McGraw at #3.92. They signed him for $136k underslot. Dohm is not currently recovering from TJ, but he was limited in 2024 to only 29.1 innings due to some kind of injury recovery/management.

When healthy, Dohm is up to 98mph with a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9 and only 1.2 BB/9. This profile feels more like what Seattle used to target in the Gilbert, Kirby, Hancock era.

Dohm has college eligibility remaining, so I’m not sure we go underslot on him, but we have enough bonus saved that we could go overslot on him if we really needed to. For now, I’m allotting him exactly slot money.

Backup plan: I think there’s a grouping of prep pitchers in this range that are very interesting including LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, LHP Mason Russell, RHP Jackson Barberi, LHP Mason Brassfield.

4.121 – 3B, Central Bucks East HS, Chase Harlan

In 2023, Seattle had the three picks in the first round which became the three high school hitters. But subplot to that was that they went back to high school hitter in the 4th round with an overslot deal to OF Aidan Smith. Smith was MLB’s #78 ranked player, and Seattle got him at #124. The slot where he was drafted was $531k and they signed him for $1.2mill. I love this move at this range. There’s inevitably a pocket of high school players that wanted second round money, but just hadn’t found a fit with a team.

Harlan is a bit of an arbitrary pick here. I don’t know that he will be on the board still (MLB ranks him #112), I don’t know that he will be willing to sign away from commitment to Clemson. Harlan is young for the class (actually turns 18 next week), but he’s already 6’3″/210lbs and has some of the biggest shoulders I’ve ever seen on a high schooler. He posted some of the top 5 hardest hit EV’s at the recent MLB Combine against a mix of college and high school players. But on top of the brute strength tool, I believe I found that he only struck out 5 times in the entire HS season (about 7% K-rate). So he’s potentially pretty disciplined, as well.

This is definitely overslot, but it’s just a question of how much. I’m gonna earmark an even $1.5mill to get him signed.

Backup plan: overslotting a different high school player that has fallen from higher ranking.

5.154 – C, Bishop Gorman HS, Burke-Lee Mabeus

I sort of have it in my head that Harry Ford is not long for the organization. He will be the biggest piece of the biggest trade Seattle is going to need to make in the next few weeks. So, I’d like to find some youth at the catching position to go with the savvy, defensive receiver I will add from the college ranks later this mock.

Mabeus is a 6’3″/210lb, switch-hitting prep catcher with a commitment to Oregon. He’s ranked #159 overall by MLB.com, so the positioning makes sense, and it’s just a question of signability. Again, we can offer him probably $1mill overslot no problem, but we might get it done with about $700k extra. I will call it a $1mill total bonus for ease of tracking.

I really love both swings from Burke-Lee, and we’ve had success with SH catchers recently, and technically we did draft Adley Rutschman out of high school back in 2016 when he was committed to an Oregon college.

Backup plan: I still like local high school SS Adam Haight.

6.183 – RHP, William and Mary, Nate Knowles

I have a hunch that Knowles will be highly sought after by the Seattle analytics room. He’s only 6’0″/205lbs, but he’s young for the class as a 20-year-old Junior, and he’s doing stuff with pitch metrics that are intriguing. His season line was tremendous: 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9.

7.213 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

It’s a bit of a priority for me to find A) some kind of LHP starting options to add to a roster that is currently filled by five RHP starters in a home park that you should probably want as many LHP as possible, B) some high-octane, fast-moving relievers as the entire farm is woefully inept out of the ‘pen right now. Zsak is potentially both.

Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb southpaw with only one year of college experience, but is draft eligible as a guy turning 21 two days before the draft. His college season went 4.11 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9 in 35.0 innings out of the bullpen, but he’s currently adding starting work in the Cape Cod League where he’s got 12 K’s in only 7.1 innings (14.7 SO/9) and a 0.955 WHIP. I feel like he’s about to take off, and I’m really eager to buy low on him. But with the amount of college eligibility he has left, it can’t be buying TOO low.

8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar is a 5’11″/180lb infielder that played exclusively shortstop for Austin Peay, but in two weeks of games in the Cape League he’s been mostly at 2B, with some time at 3B and SS, and looks to me like a future 2B is one of the best contact hitters in the country with only 14 SO in 237 AB’s (5.9%), while walking 27 times. The slash line went .405/.484/1.151 with 13 HR, 55 RBI, and 9×10 SB. He would be so reminiscent of last year’s 5th rounder Brock Rodden, who has been a very solid performer already reaching AA in his first full year of pro ball. Seattle needs high-floor, fast-moving position players like this to go with the fast-moving bullpen arms.

9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

The more time I’ve had post-NFL Draft; the more relievers I’ve been able to find. Over the last week I’ve actually been able to go roster by roster across three of the Power 5 conferences, and that process revealed two guys in this mock to me.

Walters is a 6’3″/194lb reliever recently returned to Miami from TJ surgery, and he threw 13.2 innings in 2024 across 15 appearances. ERA was 3.29, WHIP of 1.024, and 14.5 SO/9.

10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

Returning from previous mocks; Miller Green is a 6’5″/237lb outfielder that hit .393/.533/1.432 last year with 30 HR and 94 RBI. The ONLY reason he’s potentially available this late is because he will be 24 in September. In terms of just the bat; this is one of the best values available in the entire draft. If you have to pick him earlier, probably worth it. The floor here might be righthanded Luke Raley.

11.333 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

The M’s have done something pretty interesting the last 2-3 drafts wherein they devote most of their picks in the 10th-15th rounds to drafting college pitchers. I love this idea and I’m sticking with it in this mock.

Garcia is a 6’4″/218lb LHP that actually became of the highest-rated LHP starting pitchers in my pitch metric. He’s not ranked very high by draft outlets because of the lack of high-velo stuff. But this profile has proven effective in Tmobile Park. In 2024 he posted 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9 in 16 starts.

12.363 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher represents a very similar profile as Garcia, but from the righthand side. At 6’3″/195lbs, he had a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 with more pitchability than stuff.

13.393 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Ryan Ure

Ure is the polar opposite of his college teammate Garcia. He is all power stuff, with a pretty glaring lack of pitchability/control. At 6’8″/234lbs, Ure is a massive man with a massive 103mph fastball that led to a 17.2 SO/9 rate in his limited work in 2024, after missing all of 2023 with an injury. So there are multiple redflags here, but on day 3 of the draft it sort of doesn’t matter. If you can fix/maintain Ure’s arm; you potentially have years of Aroldis Chapman lite.

14.423 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

I sort of feel like this is much too late to be targeting Cranton, but I also feel that way about 90% of my picks in every mock. But I’m placing him a full round or two ahead of the national media ranking, and seeing if that’s enough compensation. Hunter is a 6’3″/210lb reliever at 23 years old who posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.7 SO/9 across 25 innings last year.

15.453 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is 6’1″/203lbs and this year posted a 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and 11.6 SO/9 out of the Arizona bullpen.

16.483 – SS, Murray State, Drew Vogel

These last five picks will all be position players, and could really be made in any order. I tried to find good athletes with well-rounded toolsets. I’m basically just taking them in an order based on defensive position priority. We start with the shortstop. Vogel is a 6’1″/195lbs SS that hit .331/.441/1.097 last year with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16×17 SB.

17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is a 6’2″/208lb catcher with above average catch and throw defense, that also hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI, 9×12 SB last year.

18.543 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a big, strong 6’3″/234lb 3B that can switch-hit to the tune of .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI and some very clutch hits in this year’s CWS.

19.573 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence. It’s not pretty, but it’s effective. At 6’2″/220lbs he hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and an incredibly disciplined 45 BB to 28 SO.

20.603 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler MacGregor

MacGregor is 6’3″/215lbs and hit .402/.484/1.270 with19 HR, 80 RBI and a very solid 15×17 SB from the firstbase position.

As we progress through the tail end of the Covid year era, there should be quite the class of undrafted players available this year. I’d look for the Mariners to sign another 6-10 guys that route after the draft ends.

Mariner mock 2

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The Mariners changed their draft strategy maybe three years ago, their new process is failing in front of us, and nobody is really talking about it. And, no, I don’t mean the change they made where they started drafting prep hitters in the early rounds starting in 2021.

Seattle changed the way they evaluate pitching around that same time, and we’re facing a dearth of MLB-caliber pitching prospects across the farm system. Seattle holds 4 members of the MLB top 100 prospects, and all four are position players. Seattle’s top 30 team prospects are position players from #1-#11, and only six pitchers in their top 20. Two of the pitchers in the M’s top six pitching prospects (Teddy McGraw and Cole Phillips) have never thrown a pitch at the professional level due to injury, and a third (Taylor Dollard) has been sidelined with injury since April 2023. This means that there aren’t many reinforcements available in AAA, and very little in AA.

Taking a look at the Tacoma Rainiers roster…they have zero pitching “prospects” (with Emerson Hancock graduated from rookie status), and their starting rotation is comprised of 27 year old Jhonathan Diaz, 36 year old Casey Lawrence, 36 year old Dallas Keuchel, 35 year old Michael Mariot, 26 year old Levi Stoudt, and the recently demoted 25 year old Hancock.

The AA Arkansas Travelers roster holds #19 prospect Logan Evans (huge buzz and a 1.60 ERA over 39.1 innings), #21 Jimmy Joyce (recently returned from injury and holding an 8.31 ERA in 2 starts for Arkansas), #27 reliever Troy Taylor (only 3.0 IP after recent promotion from Everett), and #30 Reid VanScoter (3.70 ERA across 8 starts). It’s hard for me to see Joyce or VanScoter as anything much more than a Levi Stoudt level talent.

I don’t quite understand the change Seattle made in how they evaluate pitching prospects for the draft. My sense is that their old method targeted guys that had innate ability to “control the zone”. Guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard came out of college averaging 2.0, 0.6, 1.1, 1.3 walks per 9 innings respectively. In 2021, Bryce Miller came out averaging 5.9 BB/9. In 2023, their top pitching draftpick Teddy McGraw had 4.84 BB/9, 6th-rounder Brody Hopkins had 7.33 BB/9, 11th-rounder Brandyn Garcia 4.74 BB/9, and 12th-rounder Logan Evans was 3.49 BB/9.

So, they’ve stopped caring about control. What they’ve replaced control with; I’m not sure. Velo? Spin rate? IVB? Some combo of a couple things? Probably. Whatever it is; it makes it very difficult to replicate in home mock drafting.

In addition to the lack of pitching talent at the high levels of the minors; you should note that NONE of the guys I’ve mentioned so far were drafted by Seattle out of high school. The Dipoto regime has NEVER developed a pitcher from high school up to the majors across 8 draft cycles.

Their success rate on high school drafted position players isn’t much better. This is why, when I see Jim Callis’ recent MLB mock draft from a few days ago that has Seattle drafting prep shortstop Theo Gallen and includes a note that the M’s “also are kicking the tires on the top prep arms as well,” it kinda scares me. In no way, shape, or form, should Seattle be trusted to evaluate, draft, and develop a pitcher directly out of high school. Do some self-scouting guys. You suck at this.

I should also point out that Callis in 2023 mock drafts did, correctly, put Seattle on drafting Colt Emerson, and also projected they would draft three prep players with all of their three first round picks last year.

I don’t think I objected to that process last year as it was a very good draft for prep players. The eventual draft results in 2023 had 13 high school players drafted top 30 overall. This 2024 class the major outlets have zero prep players in the top 8, only 3 in the top 15 (where Seattle would pick), and only 9 projected in the top 30.

The other thing about high school players in 2024 that nobody is talking about; is the still-developing way NIL rights will affect the signability of prep guys. There has ALWAYS been a need for teams to go over-slot on high school draftees, but will those figures increase after another year of college baseball teams learning how to manipulate the NIL system to get their recruits to campus? If a top prospect can get $1mill in NIL going to campus; is he going to want $5mill to sign with MLB team directly out of HS? It’s a slippery slope.

Ultimately, although Callis’ intel may be correct on Seattle’s intentions; they may not be able to execute them due to lack of inventory, and cost to sign. They may be forced to pivot to drafting a college player. We should all be okay with this as this is a strong college class.

The top high school player this year is SS Konnor Griffin, who is an absolute monster at 6’4″/215lbs. There’s no way he falls to #15. The next two prep players on big boards are SS Bryce Rainer and RHP William Schmidt…neither of whom I like. The next guy up is LHP Cam Caminiti. I really like Cam, and Callis also noted in his mock that he “might not make it further than the Mariners at #15.” So there would appear to be interest on Seattle’s side, but insert previous caveat on the M’s inability to develop prep pitching.

Callis has Seattle taking a slight reach on #26 prospect, Texas prep MIF Theo Gillen, which we have to take seriously. I don’t love Gillen. There’s a neg on him that he doesn’t have the arm to stick at SS, and likely ends up at 2B. I also kinda don’t love the intangibles make-up on him. I would prefer to offer up SS Wyatt Sanford. He’s also a reach as the #35 player on the MLB board, but Sanford is one of the better defenders in the class, who should definitely stick at SS.

Just as a quick aside…is Seattle really going to draft a lefty-hitting high school shortstop for a third consecutive year?? In addition to the two highly rewarded international signees of the last two years: Felnin Celesten and Dawel Joseph. All of these acquisitions mean that four of Seattle’s top seven prospects are shortstops, and seven of their top sixteen players have some SS experience. That strategy works when drafting pitchers across a 3-4 year stretch, as you’re gonna need five starters in a rotation. But you can only start one shortstop. At some point, you’re moving like 3-4 of these guys to other positions or using them as trade bait. I don’t know.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This is not what I would do. I would draft the best college pitcher still available on my board because the M’s CAN develop that. This is a compromise of the intel that Jim Callis mentioned, filtered through the logic that Seattle is actually pretty well stocked-up on shortstop prospects, plus the knowledge that Seattle’s major league rotation is pretty well set until Luis Castillo’s contract gets closer to expiring in like 2027, and so the Mariners can afford to take a slower-developing arm. Plus, if one of the top 3-4 high school players were to fall to #15, it is more likely to be a pitcher, as MLB knows prep pitching is far more temperamental than prep hitting. The first prep arm drafted last year came off at #8 overall, and the second HS pitcher didn’t come off until #33 overall.

Caminiti is actually one of the younger players in this draft, as he won’t turn 18 until August, and re-classified from 2025 class to this year. This could also suggest a higher willingness to sign, rather than go to his college commitment at LSU. He’s trying to get SOMEWHERE a year earlier than he was supposed to.

He’s currently 6’2″/205 and touching 97mph from the southpaw side. He’s got a very good slider, and third and fourth offerings of change and curve (no order). In terms of high school pitcher, I feel a little better that this is a safer pick than most. Seattle might still fuck it up, but in my opinion Cam would be the best attempt at the worst strategy.

#2.55 – SS, Boswell HS, Sawyer Farr

My original plan was to take the best college pitcher available in the 1st, then to draft a prep shortstop in the 2nd…while researching for that strategy I found Sawyer, and I really like the profile. He’s a 6’5″/180lb shortstop that can switch-hit, and I love the intangibles. The fundamentals he has for all five tools are fantastic. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, and I think that’s a legit concern. Bonus slot for this pick is $1,641,900, and if Seattle can save enough in other rounds to bump that up to $2mill; I think they can get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi St, Nate Dohm

In my previous mock I had Seattle taking Dohm in the 4th round. I was a little concerned about Dohm’s health, as it had been some time since he had pitched, but as of today Dohm made a couple appearances for the Bulldogs on May 14th and again May 18th out of the bullpen. If he had pitched more innings this year at even a fraction of the efficacy he’s had in his limited work; we’d potentially be talking about a 1st round guy. So I’m glad to bump him up from the 4th round to the 3rd.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

This is an interesting one. I think Seattle should take some picks this year simply to target potential fast-moving bullpen arms. The 4th round may be high to start doing that, but Zsak is technically a redshirt freshman who will turn 21 (and therefore draft-eligible) on July 12th. So he’s got a TON of eligibility remaining, and it may take a decent bonus to sign him. Media outlets have him ranked as more of an 11th-15th round player on day 3 of the draft, so you could take a few different strategies to accomplish that. You could take him somewhere late on day 2 (rounds 8-10) and try to give him, say, $200k overslot money, or you could take him in an earlier round, give him $100k underslot for that round, but it still ends up more money than he’d get on day 3.

Performance-wise, Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb lefty with 4 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2024, posting a 4.11 ERA, 10.0 SO/9 and a 1.200 WHIP. You could try to take some time with him and develop him to start, but I think he might be MLB-ready by 2026 if you let him relieve.

#5.154 – RHP, Arkansas, Brady Tygart

Tygart is one of a few picks in this mock where I’m consciously going away from my own pitching metric, that no longer aligns with the M’s draft tendencies, and trying to latch onto something that Seattle IS using to identify their pitching picks. It’s a pretty big guess, though.

Tygart is a 6’2″/215lb starter this year for the Razorbacks. In 2022 he pitched as the team’s closer where some of his pitching stats actually looked better, including his SO/9 (12.2 as a closer in 2022, down to 10.5 as a starter in 2024). I think you keep him in the rotation in the immediate future, but you know the bullpen is also an option.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’1″/210lb, righty swinging, centerfielder hitting .413/.518/1.328 with 17 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 54 games. He checks a lot of boxes across all toolsets.

#7.213 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in the country this year, and even using a higher pick on him would be justified. I’m slotting him here as a senior-sign candidate. He’s 6’3″/236lbs, currently playing 1B but with some experience catching and playing outfield for Georgia, but the bat plays wherever. Hitting .361/.586/1.390 with 18 HR, 52 RBI and 50 BB; Collins is the Bulldog leadoff man setting the table ahead of phenom Charlie Condon. I’m not sure why Georgia has gone so far away from letting him catch, but the idea that there’s a power-hitting, lefthanded catcher is part of this profile is super intriguing for me.

#8.243 – 3B, Penn, Wyatt Henseler

Henseler is one of my favorite players in this class. He’s 6’1″/210lb righty that plays a great defensive third base. He’s been hitting .367/.475/1.259 with 21 HR, 51 RBI in 45 games in the Ivy League this year. He has a transfer commit to move on to Texas A&M for a graduate year, but he’s going to be 23 years old in August. As a senior, you could try to underslot him, but in this case I wouldn’t. Just give him exactly the slot of $212,900 for this pick.

#9.273 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

Vogel is another senior player. Actually, it’s worth mentioning that this draft class has an insane number of senior options. Backlog of Covid redshirts? Guys getting NIL money and deciding to stay in school? Not sure. That’s potentially a benefit for MLB teams looking for discounts for their bonus pool, but it may hurt them if they try to draft guys from the junior, or even redshirt junior, class(es).

Anyways, Vogel is 6’2″/195lbs, hits righthanded, plays a solid shortstop, and is hitting .339/.451/1.130 with 20 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB in 55 games.

#10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green

Miller-Green is an absolute unit of a guy at 6’5″/226lbs. He’s been a two-way player for Austin Peay, but his future is certainly with the bat where he’s primarily played RF. He’s hitting .395/.530/1.428 with 29 HR and 93 RBI in 54 games. Insane numbers. Even writing those out now makes me think this is too late to be drafting him. But he will be 24 in September, so it’s a calculated risk. This guy is an exit velocity monster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon St, Jacob Kmatz

Kmatz is another guy I wouldn’t have mocked to Seattle three-ish years ago. I THINK he might be Seattle’s kind of guy currently, though. He’s 6’3″/210lbs, posting 3.48 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9 in 14 starts. It’s not a splashy line, but it fits with the M’s recent profile of early day three pitchers.

#12.363 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

Gordon is another of the similar profile of part-time starter, fuller-time reliever that I’ve taken a few times this mock. He’s 6’5″/195lbs with a pedestrian 5.10 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9 and 9 saves in 5 starts and 12 relief appearances. His fastball is a present 97mph, and with the frame it’s easy to dream on 100mph.

#13.393 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

It’s a pointed intent of mine to force more lefthanded pitching talent into the Mariner system. Wilson marks a slightly different profile of lefty. He has 25 appearances this year, all of them out of the bullpen, but he has zero saves. Those 25 appearances have added up to 57.0 innings, which means that his average appearance lasts 2.1 innings. He’s more of the long-relief, middle-innings type who has a 1.175 WHIP, and 13.3 SO/9.

#14.423 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia

Again, another stab at some lefthanded pitching. Garcia is more of the “crafty lefty” profile, but he’s 6’4″/218lbs with a 3.61 ERA,1.112 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9 and only 2.1 BB/9 in 14 starts this year. If he can add some velo, I could see him be a very solid SP3 in time. Well worth the value this late as a guy turning 23 on Wednesday.

#15.453 – RHP, Western Kentucky, Mason Burns

I had originally sketched in a position player to this pick, but after looking at the entirety of all 20 rounds; I felt like I needed another pitcher. The easiest guy to cut was a utililty infielder.

I literally just wanted to find some true closer options. I liked Oregon State’s Bridger Holmes, but he was off the board. I liked the lefty Ben Abeldt out of TCU, but he just had slightly lesser metric scores than Burns.

Mason is leading the country in saves, and at 6’3″/210lbs he mixes a 96mph fastball with a solid slider to post 4.18 ERA, 12.8 SO/9, and 15 saves in 27 appearances. Seems to be a bit of a fun character, too.

#16.483 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor is another corner infielder that has come through the Ivy League en route to Northeastern where he’s hitting .405/.485/1.287 with 19 HR, a staggering 80 RBI, 14 SB in 53 games this year. I’d expect him to be drafted much earlier than this if he wasn’t turning 24 in July. Oh, and he also might be the best defensive 1B in this class.

#17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

In my previous mock for this year; I was kind of forcing a catcher pick much earlier in order to get a decent bat out of him, but after deeper consideration, I think I’d prefer to get a really good receiver and basesteal eliminator, and hope on the bat side.

Schiavone is a 6’2″/185lb catcher with a .278/.391/1.030 slash with 17 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB and a season .990 fielding percentage, and who has caught 38% of would-be basestealers this year.

#18.543 – OF, Morehead St, Ryley Preece

Preece is a holdover from multiple mocks of mine going back to last year. I like the profile. He’s a switch-hitter with a .353/.491/1.157 line, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 19 SB this year. He plays a very solid outfield, as well.

#19.573 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll

Another senior year player, Driscoll is a 6’5″/225lb starter with a 3.26 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, only 9.0 SO/9 but also only 1.8 BB/9 across 66.1 innings. Not a ton of upside, but I think he could eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#20.603 – C, Indiana St, Grant Magill

Magill is, arguably, the best defensive catcher in the country. I believe he won the college Gold Glove last year. He’s got a .992 season fielding percentage, and has caught 40% of basestealers this year. The bat is really not great…one of the worst in my database of about 400 players…at .285/.332/.757 with 6 HR, 42 RBI in 49 games. (It’s not a terrible bat, just the low end of my metric looking for projectable hitters.) I’d really just like to have Magill working with the system’s young pitchers.

December Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

It’s the middle of December 2023. The Seahawks are four-deep into the longest losing streak of the Pete Carroll era, with a chance to make it five on Monday night versus the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. There is more uncertainty about the future of this team than we’ve seen in 12+ years.

There are legitimate questions about whether Pete should continue as the coach. That will be a bigger decision for after the season. The easier call should be that a change needs to be made at quarterback. With the latter in mind, I will propose three things:

  1. Trade Geno Smith to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Geno’s contract, although putting a strain on the Seahawks’ limited cap situation, is not excessive to the point of being unwieldy for teams like Tampa who have around $50mill in space for the 2024 season. The Bucs’ current starter, Baker Mayfield, is on a one-year deal. And, former Seahawk QB coach, Dave Canales is in Tampa as their Offensive Coordinator. So he could know Geno and how to maximize him. I’m asking for the Bucs’ 2nd round pick for Geno. We’ve now replaced the pick given up to get Leonard Williams.
  2. Send the Detroit Lions the third round pick we acquired from Denver in last year’s draft (est. #3.79) in exchange for second year QB Hendon Hooker. Hendon has yet to play as a pro after coming off a knee injury sustained at end of 2022 college season. Tough to gauge his value, so I’m using kind of the “original round tender” idea and giving Detroit the same value they used to draft him last year. I like Hendon more than any of the 2024 class.
  3. Draft a QB from the 2024 class. More on this later

Heading into the draft, I really don’t love the value of the mid-first round players. If you’ve missed on the top three QB’s, which I believe they will, and you’re not terribly interested in drafting one of the top OT on the board, which could fit this range, then I think you might as well trade down.

I will make one quick aside in that I am, for the first time, re-considering Michael Penix. I’ve always liked Penix’ intangibles, but I’ve had questions on the physicals. There’s the obvious injury stuff, he’s not the runner that Russell Wilson was coming out of college and I think PCJS prefer, and I think his arm talent is overrated in the media. But…the thing that I recently looked at that is, at least anecdotally, interesting is the hit rate of………the Heisman runner(s)-up. Look at some of these top 2’s:

Bryce Young or Aidan Hutchinson?
Devonta Smith or Trevor Lawrence?
Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts?
Kyler Murray or Tua Tagavailoa?
Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey?
Robert Griffin or Andrew Luck?
Cam Newton or Andrew Luck?
Matt Leinart or Adrian Peterson?
Jason White or Larry Fitzgerald?
Charles Woodson or Peyton Manning?

I think the 2023 NFL season, and the number of random-ass QB’s that are being forced into duty AND winning games, is showing the modern league may have to change the way it evaluates QB’s. From the on-going rags to riches story of Brock Purdy, to guys just recently splashing like Jake Browning, Tommy Devito, Aidan O’Connell…maybe to lesser extent Bailey Zappe, Easton Stick, Nick Mullens, Gardner Minshew. I think we should take a dart throw. Buuuuuttttt…we should mitigate the risk slightly by pushing the dart throw down the board somewhat. I’m probably not doing it in the 1st round outside of Jayden Daniels.

So let’s up our inventory, up our darts. I’ve got one trade in mind sending the #13 pick to Arizona for #17 and #81. And then I will flip #17 to Cincinnati for #23 and #87. We’ll go into our first pick looking like this:

#1.23, #2.51, #3.75, #3.81, #3.87, #4.114, #5.147, #6.188, #7.229

#1.23 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton

The Seahawks really need to invest in the Center position. They have for years. The ongoing instability there since Max Unger was traded away is potentially one of the lowkey biggest reasons Seattle has not contended since. Evan Brown will be a free agent, and the team hasn’t seem confident in 2023 5th-rounder Olu Oluwatimi.

I don’t love the strength of this class of interior OL. I think it’s much stronger at OT. But that can be a way to find value: moving OT to guard or center. Barton has been playing LT for Duke, and the reports are that his short arms will force him inside. Maybe that’s guard, but I like his intelligence to be a cornerstone at center.

There’s an argument to be made about positional value of centers in the 1st round, or about Seattle never drafting one this early. Some of that should be put aside after they broke trend last year to draft a Corner in the first round for the first time in this regime. And then they picked a WR in the 1st for the first time. If they are really hunting best player available, I think this is the move, with backup plan the Minnesota safety, Tyler Nubin.

#2.51 – LB, NC State, Payton Wilson

Seattle really needs to come out of this draft with a stud linebacker. Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks are both currently free agents at the end of the season. I’d re-sign Brooks at minimum, and might do another one-year deal for Bobby, but I’m really trying to find the next 10-year guy for the middle of the defense.

I’ve got a handful of LB I’m interested in, with Cedric Gray, Michael Barrett near the top, but Wilson checks the most boxes. He’s a big dude at 6’4″/238lbs, he’s a team captain, he’s got great marks for athleticism, he’s extremely productive including top 10 in the country in total tackles and TFL, plus 6.0 sacks, 10 hurries, 3 INT, 6 PBU, 1 FF.

The only downside is potential medical redflag, and possibly him not being available this late after the Combine.

#3.75 – DT, Ohio State, Tyleik Williams

Seattle sort of showed their hand that they wanted improvement from their IDL when they invested a 2nd round pick in a half-year rental for Leonard Williams. It wouldn’t surprise me if they drafted someone at DT in the 1st round. I’m trying to play a bit more strategy and find some hidden gems. I’ve done a LOT of vetting of this class of DT. I like Jer’zhan Newton and T’vondre Sweat if you want to invest that much. There’s a guy out of UMass named Billy Wooden if you really want to take a late flyer. But, in the middle of the draft, I think you look at Auburn’s Marcus Harris and Tyleik Williams.

Williams is 6’2″/290lbs, with 10.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and 5 PBU this year. I think his floor is Jarran Reed.

#3.81 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter

This is a tricky one. Zinter is a two-time winner of the team OL Joe Moore Award, he’s a 2023 first team All-American, and he’s a 6’6″/322lb team captain for the national title contending Michigan team. But he suffered a pretty gruesome broken leg a few weeks ago when he got rolled up on vs Ohio State. This might end up similar to Trey Smith falling to the 6th round in 2021. Personally, I’m not letting him fall. This guy is a culture-setter.

Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes are both gonna be free agents. Between 2023 picks Oluwatimi and Bradford, and 2024 “picks” Barton and Zinter we have four bodies to fill three starting jobs for 2024.

#3.87 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton III

Having “acquired” Hendon Hooker earlier via trade; I’m now free to take a bit more of a risk on a draft QB. And how fun would it be to reunite Hendon with his former teammate at Tennessee, Joe Milton?

I’ve been curious since about this time last year at how the media would treat the huge-armed Milton in the same offense that people gave a ton of shit to Hooker for playing in. Milton has objectively performed much worse than Hooker in the same scheme, and really nobody is overrating him just based on his physical traits. Hooker was the #2 rated passer in college last year behind CJ Stroud at 175.51…Milton this year is closer to #40 at 147.27. Hooker was 27 TD, 2 INT over 329 attempts, Milton is 20 TD, 5 INT in 354 attempts. Hooker ran for 430 yards, 4.13 ypc, 5 TD, Milton ran for 299 yards, 3.83 ypc, 7 TD.

If Milton can learn to throttle down his arm a bit, there are enough other traits here to interest me, and it would be very fun to watch him develop. I could see a Dak Prescott trajectory. Well worth the 3rd round investment on a 6’5″/235lb leopard tank.

#4.114 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Safety is a spot that Seattle really needs to re-evaluate this offseason. They’re currently paying a ton of money to their starting duo that are both having the worst years of their careers. Julian Love seems like an okay piece to keep on the roster, but you don’t want him to be a focal point. I don’t know what the future would be for Coby Bryant if he’s now a safety. Jerrick Reed is currently post-op of a knee surgery, and never really got much play before he got hurt.

I’d be pretty okay with Seattle spending a high pick on Tyler Nubin, who I like as a centerfield, ball-hawking deep safety. And I like Mustapha when he’s in the box coming downhill. That might be a sick combo. I didn’t do that pairing in this mock, but it was highly considered.

Mustapha is a 5’11″/207lb technician with 80 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 1 FF for the year. Should be a good athletic tester, too.

#5.147 – DL, Alabama, Justin Eboigbe

This is probably a pipe dream to get an Alabama DL this late, but I haven’t seen Eboigbe ranked very highly to this point. I’d like to get Seattle a replacement for free agent Darrell Taylor, and there is some good volume/depth at that profile in guys like Mohamed Kamara, Nelson Ceaser, Jasheen Davis, but I just didn’t have enough picks. Instead, I’m going to give them another shot at the Mike Morris profile. Morris is 6’6″/292lbs, Eboigbe is 6’5″/292lbs. This year Eboigbe posted 11.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, and 4 hurries.

Alabama uses him all over the line, so you can get some outside reps from him. But he also has enough sand in his pants to play the run inside.

#6.188 – DS, Ohio State, Josh Proctor

I don’t know that Proctor is the centerfield counterpoint to Mustapha that I’d like to find, but he’s a good player and great value this late. He’s 6’2″/205lbs with 41 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 INT, 8 PBU this year. And he packs a punch.

#7.229 – RB, South Dakota State, Isaiah Davis

Davis is a 6’1″/220lb running back that has run for almost 1500 yards and 17 TD this year for the Jackrabbits while averaging almost 7.00 ypc. With Deejay Dallas a free agent after the year and Kenny Mcintosh still a huge question mark; it feels appropriate to take a late-round flyer RB.

The jump-cuts for a back this size are very intriguing.

I think my mock is short on a tightend with the turnover coming at the position, but I really don’t like this class. Plus, Seattle doesn’t seem to know how to use them. Maybe that’s a Geno problem, cause even Russell with his height seemed to find ways to use them more. Regardless, I just preferred to go other directions.

After spending 1st round picks on CB and WR last year; I passed on those spots this year, even though both classes are pretty nice throughout the draft. People thought we didn’t need a RB last year when they took Charbonnet, but that’s turned out to be a pretty nice pick. I won’t begrudge a BPA pick if one happens again this year.