prospects

Mariners offseason plan

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been spending some time this weekend thinking about what the Mariners could do this offseason, after signing Josh Naylor, to improve upon their 2025 season. What combination best fills the holes of free agency while staying within the structure of budget that is certainly at play from ownership?

This is what I came up with.

I’m sure this won’t be the most popular structure, and I’m fairly certain the front office has a plan that will be perceived more popular, but this is my pretty objective thought.

#1 – Sign one of the posted Japanese players.

It’s been a minute since Seattle has had a substantial Japanese presence on the roster, but I think there is value, both on the field and off, to be found there.

I’ve targeted 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto as the Japanese signing I would pursue. Yes, he is the older of the two big bats, but the power is not that much less, and I think the pitch recognition is so much better and should travel. I think many people think Okamoto is JUST a first baseman, but I like his tape at third, where he won Gold Gloves as recently as 2022, I believe, to be adequate to replace Eugenio Saurez.

As far as Geno…it’s hard to say goodbye to him. I think he brought an emotional character to the clubhouse that was important in both of his stints here. If Geno would be willing to take the same money as I’m proposing Kazuma takes; I would probably just keep the continuity with Geno.

Speaking of the contract…most industry writers project Okamoto gets 3-4 years, and then it’s a pretty wide range of money from, like, $12 to $16mill AAV. I’ve budgeted him at three years, $40.5 million, or $13.5mill AAV.

#2 – Trader Jerry season.

We may NEED to see some trades this winter. Having spent on Naylor, and with the club expected to spend decently on someone else in free agency, we’re going to need to augment the roster with some younger, cheaper, but still MLB-proven, players. We have the farm system that should support making some of these moves.

Trade #1: In my model, I found that if Jorge Polanco gets the contract he’s projected to get; it will be one of the better values in all of MLB. If Seattle does go that route…hey, cool. It’s probably not a bad move. But I, personally, just worry about extending too many of these players that are aging out of their prime.

So, my first trade would be to send the #75 prospect in all of MLB, and the #7 prospect on the M’s top 30, OF Jonny Farmelo, plus our #18 prospect, RHP Michael Morales, to the St Louis Cardinals for IF/OF Brendan Donavan.

The Cardinals have the #5 prospect in all of baseball, JJ Weatherholt, set to debut in 2026, so they’re going to need a position for him to play, and so maybe they make Donovan available.

Donovan has position flexibility, but he spent 82 of his 97 starts last year at second base, and that will be where I pencil him in for Seattle in 2026.

In terms of the return going to the Cards…honestly, this is my most important trade, so I give them their first choice of any of our #6-#8 prospects, Michael Arroyo, Farmelo, or Jurrangelo Cijntje. But when I looked at their farm system; it just felt like they could use outfield help more than 2B or pitching.

Donovan is an Arbitration-2 player about to turn 29 in January, with club control through 2027, and he should cost roughly $5.75mill this year. Last year he hit .287/.353/.775 with 10 HR, 50 RBI in 118 games.

Trade #2: In order to replace some of the power lost by Polanco not being re-signed; I’m going to try to add some in the outfield. I am sending the Detroit Tigers #8 prospect SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje plus OF/IF Luke Raley in order to acquire OF Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter destroyed Seattle in the postseason, so Mariner fans may have some mixed emotions about this one, but Carpenter is a 28 y/o who hit 26 HR in 130 games last year, with a slash line of .252/.291/.788, but a career OBP of .322, so we’re gonna try to straighten some of that back out.

Raley ends up the short straw between he and Dom Canzone in terms of who we would prefer to retain as a bench lefty outfielder. His ability to backup 1B is also now covered by Okamoto. There just really isn’t space for him, and he’s also the more expensive of he and Canzone, as he was projected to make $1.75mill next year. That’s not nothing when we’re pushing as hard as we can up against the “salary cap”.

Carpenter has three years of club control remaining, and he should cost about $3.5mill this year depending on arbitration. He may end up in true platoon with Victor Robles in right field, as Carpenter hit righties at a .257 clip while Robles hit .213 against them, and then Robles hit lefties .289 while Carpenter hit .217 off them.

I’m sure a lot of fans, and probably the front office, bristle at the idea of trading away Cijntje, but we’re holding onto Ryan Sloan and 2025 first rounder Kade Anderson, who probably fit better in the timeline of our pitching development/cost progression anyways. I felt like we NEEDED to part with someone quality to get an MLB player with “now” ability and cheap club control. That looked like Cijntje.

Trade #3: I’ve got a couple of smaller trades that fans may not immediately recognize, but trust me…I didn’t so much fucking homework on these. I’m sending 2B Cole Young to the Kansas City Royals for righthanded reliever Lucas Erceg.

Erceg kind of ends up a cap casualty for the Royals who have probably a tighter budget than Seattle, and will have multiple arbitration raises to work through. Erceg is a bit older as he will turn 31 early in the 2026 season, but he has club control through 2029, and should cost about $2.00mill this year. It’s not that different from when Seattle got ahold of Paul Sewald in his age 31 season.

Erceg has been a very solid reliever for the last two years between Oakland and Kansas City posting sub-4.00 ERA’s including a 2.64 mark last year. His strikeouts were down a bit in 2025, but his velo and pitch metrics are still very strong.

Young becomes somewhat expendable with Donovan acquired and Colt Emerson nipping at his heels in AAA already. Emerson may, eventually, be the replacement for JP Crawford at SS in 2027, but he probably has to start somewhere else when he debuts in 2026. In a scenario where Emerson plays 2B; Donovan could play LF with Randy Arozarena benched vs RHP. The Royals like this trade as they can either make Jonathan India available in trade immediately, or slot Young in as his replacement in 2027 and give him another year to develop.

Trade #4: This is the smallest, but perhaps sneakiest, trade of all. I’m sending #12 prospect OF Tai Peete to the San Francisco Giants for lefthanded reliever Erik Miller.

Miller is a big boy at 6’5″/268lbs and he posted a 1.50 ERA, but pedestrian 6.0 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 numbers across 36 appearances and 30.0 innings for the Giants in 2025. His season ended early when he was placed on the IL in early July with elbow soreness from which he never came back. Obviously, this trade would be contingent on a physical, but I like the “buy-low” nature here in order to acquire a lefty that touches 99mph with run. And he’s only 28 in February with club control through 2029 and should only cost $820k this year.

Even if the injury is still not fully resolved; there is enough meat on the bone that this could be a useful trade across the life of the deal. This could end up sort of resembling when Seattle acquired Andres Munoz while he was in injury recovery for the Padres. We got Munoz on August 30, 2020 after he didn’t appear at all for SD that season, and he didn’t pitch for Seattle until October 3rd, 2021.

After all of these transactions, the Mariner rotation remains fully intact. The defense should be better with Donovan > Polanco, and potentially Ben Williamson starting at 3B with Okamoto at DH. Power rates may be down a bit, but contact rates should be better (really, we are mistakenly taking credit for Saurez’ 49 homeruns, when in fact he only hit 13 for SEA). The farm system maintained our top 6 prospects, along with keeping guys like SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, OF Yorger Bautista, SS Nick Becker from the top 15. And we didn’t blow our remaining (expected) $23mill budget surplus on one guy. We’ve addressed 2B, 3B, OF, RHP, and LHP. We’ve got relatively younger without becoming inexperienced, and we’ve left room for minor league promotions.

New Roster:

C- Raleigh, Ford
1B- Naylor, Okamoto
2B- Donovan, Rivas
SS- Crawford, Rivas
3B- Williamson, Okamoto
LF- Arozarena, Donovan, Canzone
CF- Rodriguez, Robles
RF- Carpenter, Robles, Canzone
DH- Okamoto, Carpenter

SP1- Woo
SP2- Gilbert
SP3- Kirby
SP4- Castillo
SP5- Miller

CL- Munoz
RHRP- Brash, Bazardo, Erceg, Hoppe
LHRP- Speier, Miller, Ortiz

Mariner mock 3

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re just over three weeks away from the 2025 MLB Draft, and things are speeding up in the process. The finals of the College World Series start tomorrow, and we’ve seen some high pressure, high stakes performances from many names relevant to this year’s draft. Multiple summer leagues are underway including the MLB Draft League and the Cape Cod League. And last week we had the fifth annual MLB Draft Combine. We’re getting lots of new, more specific data points on a lot of players hoping to hear their names called in July.

This new info is, perhaps, pointing us towards a clearer picture of the broader overall draftboard. What are the tiers of different player profiles. Who are the guys that are rising. Who are the guys at the back of the draft that have differentiated themselves from guys that will probably go undrafted.

In my previous mock draft for the Mariners; I speculated on a draft strategy wherein Seattle would look to, effectively, trade their 2025 first round pick at #3 overall to the 2026 draft where it would become the #4 overall pick, in what looks to be a stronger class at the top of the draft. I knew when I wrote that mock this idea was unlikely…nobody in MLB ever does this. I still think it would be a bold, innovative, and smart move. But it’s like a 1% chance that it happens.

So what would be the second-best draft strategy in a weak top-end draft class?? I think it would be to hyper-focus on prep players. The guys that we don’t have as clear of a picture on their future values, but which could mean higher upside (while, naturally, also having the risk of lower upside). While seeking that upside, I think it’s simultaneously important to get multiple bites at that apple, which means looking for an underslot signer for that #3 pick (and maybe a couple select points on day two of the draft), which can then give you surplus bonus money to offer to players that fall to later picks.

Something that the media has come to pretty consensus agreement on for this draft class is that there is a pretty strong group of high school shortstops. This group includes to some degree, and some variance in likelihood that they can stick at short, players like: Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, Jojo Parker, Steele Hall, and Daniel Pierce. These are all players ranked in the top 20 overall on most big boards.

Holliday is widely considered to be the likely #1 pick going to the Washington Nationals. We won’t look much at him.

Willits is the #5 player on the MLB board. Listed 6’1″/180lbs and a switch-hitter. Willits is a young player for the class (which some teams prefer) as he won’t turn 18 until December.

Carlson is #7 on the MLB board. Listed 6’1″/185lbs and a righthanded hitter. Carlson will turn 19 about two weeks after the draft. He might be the best pure defender amongst these early candidates.

Parker is #10 on the MLB board. Listed 6’2″/200lbs and hitting lefthanded. Parker probably has the best hit-tool amongst this group, while probably having the least likelihood of sticking at short. He turns 19 in August. Of this group, Parker is the one that two separate media sources have independently connected to Seattle as a potential underslot signee.

Hall is the #13 player on the MLB board. Listed 6’0″/180lbs and hitting righty. Hall is another younger player that will turn 18 about ten days after the draft. Interestingly, Hall and Billy Carlson are both committed to the University of Tennessee. It’s unlikely both make it to Knoxville.

Pierce is the #18 overall on teh MLB board. Listed 6’0″/185lbs and hitting righthanded. He will turn 19 in August.

Is there a combination of present grade, future grade, and signing bonus figure from this group that puts one of these guys ahead of the others? And, really, part of the equation is actually: “is it better to draft a college player at/near/above bonus slot at #3, or would it be better to get an underslot player with more upside that then also allows you to get another upside player later on?” Basically a question of, “can you get two for one?”

In this particular draft class, I think they should do the latter. Let’s go for the 2×1.

In my opinion, the two guys to focus on in this scenario are Billy Carlson and Jojo Parker. This basically represents the best defender of the group and the best hitter of the group. In my first mock draft in May, I actually was going with Carlson as I just loved his glove so much. In theory, Seattle has two pretty strong shortstop candidates already coming through the system in Colt Emerson and Felnin Celesten. We don’t, necessarily, HAVE to keep a guy at shortstop.

So, in this mock, I’m pivoting to take the better hitter, who also happens to be the guy that has some buzz surrounding Seattle interest. There’s also the fact that Parker was a member of the 2024 East Coast Pro all star team of players from the states of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, etc that were chosen by Mariner scouts and played under the name “Mariners”. There is some documented connection between Seattle and Jojo (and Jojo’s twin brother, Jacob).

#1.3 – SS, Purvis HS, Jojo Parker

While the hit-tool is clearly the headliner here; as I’ve dug in deeper to Parker I think his power and his glove are underrated. No, I don’t think he sticks at shortstop, but I do think he sticks on the dirt. His fielding actions are smooth and efficient. I think his move off shortstop will be dictated more by his range than his literally fielding. His arm looks decent. I think he’s a future third baseman. And that’s where the underrated power will come into play. I think his power is coming along very nicely and he will have enough power for 3B. He might end up similar to another player that has recently been in the news: Rafael Devers.

Now comes the business end of this selection. As a guy being projected as the #10 player in this class; if you draft him at #3, you’re doing so (in part) to save some money. The #3 pick holds a bonus slot value of $9.5million. The bonus slot value of, say, the #10 pick is $6.2million. The middle point between those two is $7.85million. If you sign Parker for, roughly, $8million, that $1.5million savings will come in extremely useful on later picks. For those that question the plausibility of underslotting a high school player at #3…Max Clark was drafted at #3 overall in 2023 and signed for about $600k underslot. The same draft, Blake Mitchell signed for ~$1.08million underslot at pick #8. Kumar Rocker drafted out of college in 2022 at pick #3 signed for $2.39mill underslot.

#1.35c – 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS, Quentin Young

The second big adjustment in this mock draft is that my intended/previous target at #35, RHP Patrick Forbes, is now going to be off the board after his performance in the CWS. But, with the bonus savings at #3, this pick can now be another prep player.

I love 2B/OF Sean Gamble. What an impressive, mature profile. He kind of reminds me of Corbin Carroll.

I love local product Xavier Neyens, but as a lefthanded hitter with future 3B in his projection; he’s probably redundant after drafting Parker.

And there’s potentially a handful of prep pitchers that profile similar to 2024 draftee Ryan Sloan that might fit here: LHP Jack Bauer, RHP Aaron Watson, RHP Landon Harmon, LHP Johnny Slawinski. High school arms are historically the riskiest draft demographic, and Seattle historically can find/develop interesting, future-MLB arms from college pitchers in the midrounds of the draft.

I’m going with Quentin Young here because he’s different than what we’ve ever seen the M’s draft out of high school. He’s a power-first righthanded hitter when Seattle has almost always drafted hit-first, lefthanded guys.

Young is an MLB bloodline guy with two uncles that played in Delmon and Dmitri Young. He’s already 6’6″/225lbs with grown-man exit velocities touching 115mph at this week’s Combine. He’s got pretty surprising fluidity playing the infield at that size, so he might stick there. But he’s also got enough speed when underway that he might make a decent outfielder.

Quentin is ranked #33 overall on the MLB board, so this isn’t a reach or a fall. And then it comes down to giving him enough bonus to sign him away from college commitment to LSU. The slot value for #35 is $2.75mill. With most of the savings from the #3 pick; we could get Young signed for $4mill, which equates to about the #21 overall pick, aka first round money.

#2.57 – LHP, Iowa, Cade Obermueller

If there’s a second category of player that the 2025 draft looks especially strong in; it’s probably lefthanded pitching. And that is something that Seattle is woefully short on in their farm and major league team. I don’t know why they treat LHP the way that they do. I speculate they have data that points to RHP being stronger performers in TMobile Park, but who knows.

There’s also something interesting going on this year with pitchers that are shorter in stature. There are an unusually high number of starting pitchers that are right about 6’0″ tall. Liam Doyle is listed 6’2″ but I don’t believe that at all. JB Middleton is listed 6’0″, Gage Wood is listed 6’0″, Obermueller is listed 6’0″, JD Thompson is listed 6’0″, Brian Curley is listed 5’10”, Zane Taylor is listed 6’0″. Could there be a Spencer Strider in that group?

Obermueller might be merging these two factions. For the year, he posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9. Compare that to likely top five pick Jamie Arnold: 2.98 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9. And then note the similar pitching mechanics/release heights of these two players. These are surprisingly similar profiles, but with a huge discount on Cade.

#3.91 – OF, George Mason, James Quinn-Irons

There’s a nice little pocket of players in this class that have imposing size, nice power, sneaky good gloves, and bonus basestealing in the outfield. I like JQI the best of that grouping. Listed 6’5″/230lbs and posting a 2025 line of: .419/.523/1.258, with 16 HR, 42 XBH, 39 BB, 46 SO.

#4.122 – RHP, Tulane, Michael Lombardi

After losing out on Patrick Forbes, I think I’ve found a similar profile in Lombardi. Forbes was formerly a two-way player that is now pitching-only for the last two years. Lombardi was still playing two-ways this year with games as CF, 2B, 1B and P (primarily CF).

As a pitcher, Lombardi had 23 appearances, including 6 games started. I don’t have splits for how his numbers broke down starter vs reliever, but his overall performance went: 2.14 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, 15.6 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9 across 42 innings. The hope is that he can start and that, with focus on pitching, he can tighten up his control.

#5.152 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

I think I’ve bounced back and forth in my respective mocks on how early to draft Smith. I’m steering into my hitting metric this time, and giving him closer to the value that my stat suggests. The lefty-hitting catcher with power is just too valuable.

#6.182 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Similar to Boston Smith, with Taylor I’m steering into my pitching metric more this time. Taylor is another in that list of shorter starting pitchers that we’re dreaming on a Spencer Strider. On the year, Taylor went 1.98 ERA, 0.763 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9, 1.0 BB/9. At the combine he posted one of the top fastball velo’s at 97.7mph.

#7.212 – RHP, Abilene Christian, Dominick Reid

Reid I had in my previous mock. 6’3″/201lbs and a former transfer from Oklahoma State. Reid’s line was 3.26 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 15 starts this year. And then, at the Combine this week, Reid popped as one of the top performers in multiple pitch movement measurements. There’s some intriguing clay to mold here.

#8.242 – 3B, Cincinnati, Kerrington Cross

Most likely a senior sign, Cross has tremendous intangibles, and he’s no slouch in the on-field performance: .396/.526/1.173, 12 HR, 50 BB, 35 SO, 15 SB.

#9.272 – RHP, Baylor, Gabe Craig

Craig is the #1 relief pitcher in my metric, and he has some postseason awards on his resume that may make this way too late to get him. But at 6’5″/209lbs, with a 0.56 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 14.3 SO/9, 0.8 BB/9 and 10 saves this could be a fast-mover in a system that needs more in-house pitching.

#10.302 – OF, Dallas Baptist, Nathan Humphreys

Humphreys first caught my eye with his glove. He’s got legit centerfield skills. And then his offensive line wasn’t too shabby either. He hit .353/.457/1.135 with 17 HR, 38 BB, 38 SO, and 21 SB.

#11.332 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a carryover from previous mocks, and we’re just trying to find the sweet spot between his present value where he’s a frequently-injured starting pitcher, his really strong performance when he HAS pitched, and the fact that he might be discounted due to his senior status (and injury history). But if you pick the right round, this could be insane value for an SEC starter.

#12.362 – RF, Kent State, Jake Casey

Casey is the son of Sean, the longtime MLB player, and he has put together a very solid college career in his own right. At 6’2″/190lbs, Sean hit .356/.500/1.236 with 17 HR, 20 SB last year. And he’s got an above-average outfield arm.

#13.392 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

It felt like the Mariners tried to draft a handful of quick-moving, relief pitchers in the 2024 Draft. That effort seemed to sidetrack this year with injuries and/or underperformance. But it still could be a useful strategy going forward. Hawks is an Air Force Academy transfer listed 6’4″/215lbs. In 2025 he had a 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 8 saves in 18 appearances out of the Vandy bullpen. His fastball has been up to 95mph.

#14.422 – 1B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez

There were a bunch of interesting bats on this Austin Peay roster, but I came away having Velazquez as the highest on my hitting metric. At 6’1″/212lbs he hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR, 32 BB, 32 SO in the college season, and he’s continued swinging it well across the first five games he’s played on the Cape where he’s sitting at a .389 average.

#15.452 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Ryan Lynch

Lynch is the local product from Monroe, WA that has made his way all the way to the College World Series finals tomorrow. A pure reliever at 6’4″/234lbs, he has a 0.58 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 10.2 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 9 saves in 27 appearances.

#16.482 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

When doing a Mariner mock draft, I can’t help but think of it similarly to putting together a roster. After all, most of these guys will end up becoming the bulk of the low-A Modesto lineup later this summer. You kind of need a variety of guys so that you have most positions covered.

Daniels was one of the better second base options from my hitting metric. He posted a line of .365/.476/1.220 this year with 18 HR, 40 BB, 41 SO, and 10 SB for the Huskies.

#17.512 – LHP, UCSB, Hudson Barrett

Barrett was one of my most recent discoveries just in the last week after popping in the Combine with some of the higher-ranking pitch movement statistics on his secondary pitches. At 6’5″/225lbs, Hudson is a prototypical pitcher build, and his rate stats of 1.93 ERA, 0.643 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9 are solid. There is some question mark as to why he only threw 4.2 innings during the college season in three starts as an “opener”. In his summer league more recently, Barrett threw 4.0 innings of shutout ball.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

I generally like to have two catchers in every mock. It’s too much of a specialty position to not get a couple. Hynek is a 6’1″/200lb backstop with an underwhelming .230/.396/.982 slash, but 18 HR and a solid catch and throw defensive profile.

#19.572 – RHP, Grove City CC, David Leslie

Leslie is another recent discovery after a strong performance in his first appearance out of the bullpen for his MLB Draft League team. Listed 6’3″/185lbs, his JUCO season line went: 2.05 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, 10.13 SO/9.

#20.602 – LF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibodeaux is quietly one of the best pure hitters in the country. He hit .439/.544/1.391 with 18 HR, 39 BB, 27 SO, and 24 SB during the college regular season, and he’s recently posting near-identical numbers in the Draft league at .423/.545/1.199 with 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 SO in 7 games so far. The downside is that he’s only 5’8″/175lbs and really only has one year of strong performance, and it came in the lower level Southwestern Athletic Conference.

Mariner draft week mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re down to four days before the beginning of the 2024 MLB Draft, and I’m probably not going to have much time to do long-form writing the closer we get. So this is probably my last chance to get a full-mock update in.

Mariners’ scouting director Scott Hunter had a little press huddle sometime last week in which he gave some thoughts on the state of this draft class. A lot of what he said we already knew: there’s maybe 10 top of the first round locks (I put it at 12), which means starting around #11-13 we’re into a second tier of players, which surely affects Seattle at #15.

In my mock last week I pivoted to an underslot player in the 1st, to allow for buying overslot names rounds 2-5, and Hunter discussed (unprompted) that this might be a thing for Seattle this year.

He also talked about high school pitching. I think the greater press’ take that his thoughts point to the M’s drafting a prep pitcher in the 1st round is mistaken. I don’t think that’s really what he said, and it’s not what this draft class allows for. There are maybe four HS pitchers with first round projection, only three of which will probably still be available when Seattle is on the clock. That isn’t the way to hack this draft. Hunter specifically talks about prep pitching available from the back half of the first round through the 50’s…to me, this means from pick #16 to pick #59. This means it misses Seattle at #15, but is very much in play for Seattle at their second round pick at #55. This part I buy.

And if you look at mlb’s draft board, they have HS pitchers listed top 15 like this:

15- LHP Cam Caminiti

After the top 15 overall, they have prep pitchers listed like this:

16- RHP William Schmidt
19- RHP Ryan Sloan
30- LHP Kash Mayfield
36- RHP Braylon Doughty
41- LHP David Shields
46- RHP Joey Oakie
51- RHP Bryce Meccage
52- LHP Dasan Hill
56- RHP Dax Whitney
57- LHP Boston Bateman
58- RHP Levi Sterling
59- RHP Chris Levonas

See what I mean? One in the top 15. Two from 16-30. Two from 31-45. SEVEN from 46-60, including four after M’s pick at #55. This tracks.

#1.15 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman

I opened with Holman last week, and I’m sticking with him to head into the draft. In fact, I found a piece of data in the last few days that only reaffirms my plan: Holman is primarily thought of as a 92-94mph fastball guy, but in 2023 when he was pitching for Alabama, a prominent college baseball outlet published that he touched 98mph. His mix of present stuff, 6’4″/201lb frame, and a history of touching higher velocity in SEC play, leads me to believe he’s gonna to tick up in the not-so-distant future.

And my previously stated plans to sign Holman, the #45 overall player, to an underslot bonus deal at #15, still holds. I did do some research on underslot deals in the 2023 draft, and it was rare to find discounts of over $1mill, like I had hoped. Brock Wilken signed for about -$871k underslot as the #18 overall pick, but for the most part deals were closer to $600k underslot. The slot at #15 is $4,880,900. If we can get Holman for $4mill even…awesome, but I think $4.2mill might be more realistic. Still, that would pocket us $680,900 for future picks.

#2.55 – RHP, Blackfoot HS, Dax Whitney

This is, obviously, the big change from last mock. I was previously thinking of a college bat in the 2nd round like when they got Tyler Locklear in 2022. But, really, in 2022 Seattle had two picks in the 2nd, and the other ended up being prep RHP Walter Ford.

Whitney is a pretty late-riser in this cycle as a guy coming from the rarely-scouted baseball state of Idaho. But he’s a 6’5″/193lb righty with a present fastball sitting 94mph, but touching 96. Adding muscle to his long, lean frame should really help him bump that up to closer to a 97mph regular velo, that can touch 99. He has two current secondaries that are pretty legit, and is working on his changeup to eventually give him a true four-pitch mix.

Whitney has a college commitment to Oregon State. The bonus slot for #55 is $1,641,800. Last year, Cleveland signed Alex Clemmey away from college for $2.3mill at pick #58, and Pittsburgh got Zander Mueth signed for $1.8mill at pick #67. In 2022, the Cubs needed $3.01mill to secure Jackson Ferris at pick #47 as the high end, but other prep pitchers signing that year included: 46- Jacob Miller ($1.70mill), 50- Jackson Cox ($1.85mill), 57- Cole Phillips ($1.50mill), 74- Walter Ford ($1.25mill). I think we should be able to get Whitney away from OSU for $2mill, which would be $358,200 overslot. Running total gives us $322,700 savings.

#3.91 – LHP, IMG Academy, Blake Larson

While doing diligence to see if there are any other prep LHP that I really like (after Caminiti), I came upon Larson in the last few days. I hadn’t watched him before that, but he’s 6’3″/180lbs with a present fastball touching 96mph with run. There is a very legit, high-spin slider as secondary offering, and he’s working on a change as third offering. I love the stuff, it’s more a question of: can he get more refined, and lock in better control as he matures?

Larson has a college commitment to TCU. He played his junior year of high school in Iowa, but this year he moved down to Florida and the prestigious IMG Academy on the cusp of the draft. Why would you make a huge geographic move in your senior year of high school for any reason other than increasing your draft profile? Meaning: you want to be drafted and you want to sign. The M’s bonus allotment for this pick is $812,900. I’m going to use all of my savings so far, and dip into some future money, to get Blake up to a $1.2mill bonus. We’re now $64,400 in the hole.

#4.121 – 1B/DH, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in this class. MLB has him as a 5th-6th round player…likely because, even though he has history of playing catcher and outfield in college, he’s limited to 1B/DH going forward. So, I’m hoping to steal him here in the 4th and create a nice, high-floor base for the M’s 2024 hitting class. Collins is also almost 23 years old, so he should be signable to an underslot deal. I’m hoping for $500k, which would save an additional $94,900. Current savings: $535,600.

#5.154 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

It’s an intended strategy to take pitching earlier than hitting in this draft. A) The Seattle farm is stronger on bats at the moment, B) the way this draft stacks up, the most projectable bats are either in the top 20 overall, or available after the 10th round. So, in theory, we should be able to pay premium prices on arms, and then circle back to bats later-ish. And it’s not unheard of for Seattle to do this. In 2019 they drafted five consecutive pitchers to start the draft, and eight of their first nine as pitchers. Five of those eight arms have made it all the way to MLB.

Dohm, like the pitching version of Collins, has some of the best pitching metrics in this draft for me versus SEC competition. There are some questions about health, which led to only 29.1 innings pitched this year. But I love the frame, I love the stuff, and I love the control. He’s 21 years old with eligibility remaining, but hopefully a full-slot deal here in the 5th gets him signed.

#6.183 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

I’ve had LMG in prior mocks, and usually in later rounds, but I’m placing him earlier in this one because his talent warrants it, and because I currently need a senior signing to get back in the black for overall bonus money. We’ll call it a $125k bonus. We are now back to $139k underslot overall.

#7.213 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

More senior signings. Cranton is a pure reliever with a fastball that is already 98mph and has awesome metrics, to go with another plus pitch in his slider. Already 23 years old, but you’ll see this repeatedly in this draft class due to being at the back end of the Covid class. Relievers, especially, with this kind of present stuff should move really quickly through the minors. Another $125k bonus senior signing.

#8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar has a pretty high-floor profile for another senior sign candidate. Primarily a shortstop in college, his profile probably moves him to 2B as a pro. Third consecutive $125k signing gives us $364k in underslot savings.

I’ve sort of earmarked the 9th round to be an overslot pick. I don’t know if it’s a highschool player, but it might be. There are definitely two college relievers with multiple years of eligibility remaining that I’m eying here. Actually, as I’m writing this, I’m wondering if I split the difference on the bonus surplus I have; could I get both of my guys in the 9th and 10th? Let’s try it.

#9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

Walters is recently returned from Tommy John surgery, but came back with pretty impressive results posting a 1.024 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9 and only 1.3 BB/9 in 13.2 innings pitched in relief. Giving him even split of the bonus surplus remaining means he gets $418,450.

#10.303 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a returning entrant in my mock drafts who I’ve been over-drafting his draft projection due to the fact he’s technically a redshirt sophomore after missing 2023 with an injury. But he’s draft eligible at 21 years old. I had been planning, in previous mocks, to get him around 4th-6th round where the slot bonus ranges from $594k down to $334k, with the idea of giving him $400k at whichever round he ended up. The $418k I have left is perfect.

Zsak made 6 starts this year across his work at Rutgers and two made in the Cape league, in addition to 15 appearances in relief. I’d love to try him as a starter for as long as possible, knowing that his stuff will definitely tick up if we move him back to the pen as means to get him to the show faster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

Picks 11 and 12 of this mock I’m going away from pure stuff and looking for high-pitchability, innings-eaters. Kmatz presently maxes out about 93mph, but he knows how to maximize it up in the zone, and he has one of the prettiest curveballs I’ve seen in the class. And he controls it beautifully.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia, again, doesn’t wow you with velo, but he’s doing enough with pitch sequencing and control, that he managed 11.6 SO/9 in his first year pitching for a Power 5 school. He’s got a big 6’4″/218lb frame, too, that lets you dream on more velo down the road.

#13.393 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Part of my strategy in this draft is to stock up on arms early, and find those sneaky hitters in late rounds (and undrafted free agency…which should be deep this year) that are probably small-school, but have great hit metrics (think in terms of Ben Williamson, Brock Rodden, etc). Shallenberger is at the top of that list. He reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence in that nothing he does is super fluid, and maybe you even go as far as to say “awkward”, but he’s a gamer. He hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and 45 BB to 28 SO.

#14.423 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a senior of almost 24 years old, but he hit .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI with premiere exit velocity and a penchant for clutch hitting in the CWS. He plays a very solid defensive 3B, as well, and he can switch-hit.

#15.453 – 1B, Morehead St, Roman Kuntz

The Seattle farm is chock full of middle-infield potential thanks to multiple years of drafting there early and often, so I’m looking to take multiple stabs this draft at the corners of the infield. Kuntz is listed at 6’3″/180lbs, but looks way bigger on tape. Already a 23-year-old this March; Roman hit .366/.482/1.341 with 33 HR, 100 RBI, and 50 BB to 34 SO.

#16.483 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Ryan Ure

This is a pure velo play. Ure has a ton of redflags with injury history and lack of control, but he’s been up to 103mph from the left side. Well worth the risk this late, and it’s very likely another team has risked it earlier.

#17.513 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is a guy that really caught my eye in the recent MLB Draft League. At Arizona this year he was 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, but in the draft league he’s ticked up to 3.45 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 14.4 SO/9. The breaking ball is pretty special.

#18.543 – RHP, William & Mary, Carter Lovasz

I found Lovasz just doing diligence on relievers. He’s got a good frame at 6’3″/185lbs, and I don’t have numbers on his present velo, but he’s definitely using it well up in the zone to the tune of 3.12 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 7 saves last year.

#19.573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

If there’s one thing in this draft that I wanted to do, but that the player pool really didn’t convince me to do, was to draft one or two higher end catchers. I still think Harry Ford ends up traded before the deadline, and there’s not a ton of talent in the farm. I wanted to find a catcher that has some power, has some defense, has some athleticism. Schiavone ticks a lot of that. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 9 SB, and a 38% caught stealing rate. Yeah, that’ll do.

#20.603 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

This pick could really be anything. I’ve got a first baseman in Tyler Macgregor I really like. I’ve got an outfielder named Ryley Preece that I think has some nice tools. I went with Vogel because he’s got good power at a premium defensive position. He hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16 SB.

I kinda recognize that this draft feels counter-intuitive to the state of the Mariners. But, really, the state of the MLB team and the state of the farm system are not the same. Whereas, the MLB roster is at a massive deficit on hitting, and the star of the show is our big league pitching…it’s pretty opposite on the farm. There is quite a deficit of pitching. We have a few starters that are out-performing draft position, with a few more that have been on longterm IL, but we have next to nothing exciting or MLB-quality coming out of our respective bullpens. And we’ve been getting decent early returns on middle-round college bats (Locklear, Williamson, Rodden, Schreck, which would work really well with this draft class.

This draft, more than any recent draft, is so dependent on how Seattle manages their first pick. If they can do something smart, and strategic, with that pick; they could be en route to a very interesting class.

Mariner mock 2

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The Mariners changed their draft strategy maybe three years ago, their new process is failing in front of us, and nobody is really talking about it. And, no, I don’t mean the change they made where they started drafting prep hitters in the early rounds starting in 2021.

Seattle changed the way they evaluate pitching around that same time, and we’re facing a dearth of MLB-caliber pitching prospects across the farm system. Seattle holds 4 members of the MLB top 100 prospects, and all four are position players. Seattle’s top 30 team prospects are position players from #1-#11, and only six pitchers in their top 20. Two of the pitchers in the M’s top six pitching prospects (Teddy McGraw and Cole Phillips) have never thrown a pitch at the professional level due to injury, and a third (Taylor Dollard) has been sidelined with injury since April 2023. This means that there aren’t many reinforcements available in AAA, and very little in AA.

Taking a look at the Tacoma Rainiers roster…they have zero pitching “prospects” (with Emerson Hancock graduated from rookie status), and their starting rotation is comprised of 27 year old Jhonathan Diaz, 36 year old Casey Lawrence, 36 year old Dallas Keuchel, 35 year old Michael Mariot, 26 year old Levi Stoudt, and the recently demoted 25 year old Hancock.

The AA Arkansas Travelers roster holds #19 prospect Logan Evans (huge buzz and a 1.60 ERA over 39.1 innings), #21 Jimmy Joyce (recently returned from injury and holding an 8.31 ERA in 2 starts for Arkansas), #27 reliever Troy Taylor (only 3.0 IP after recent promotion from Everett), and #30 Reid VanScoter (3.70 ERA across 8 starts). It’s hard for me to see Joyce or VanScoter as anything much more than a Levi Stoudt level talent.

I don’t quite understand the change Seattle made in how they evaluate pitching prospects for the draft. My sense is that their old method targeted guys that had innate ability to “control the zone”. Guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard came out of college averaging 2.0, 0.6, 1.1, 1.3 walks per 9 innings respectively. In 2021, Bryce Miller came out averaging 5.9 BB/9. In 2023, their top pitching draftpick Teddy McGraw had 4.84 BB/9, 6th-rounder Brody Hopkins had 7.33 BB/9, 11th-rounder Brandyn Garcia 4.74 BB/9, and 12th-rounder Logan Evans was 3.49 BB/9.

So, they’ve stopped caring about control. What they’ve replaced control with; I’m not sure. Velo? Spin rate? IVB? Some combo of a couple things? Probably. Whatever it is; it makes it very difficult to replicate in home mock drafting.

In addition to the lack of pitching talent at the high levels of the minors; you should note that NONE of the guys I’ve mentioned so far were drafted by Seattle out of high school. The Dipoto regime has NEVER developed a pitcher from high school up to the majors across 8 draft cycles.

Their success rate on high school drafted position players isn’t much better. This is why, when I see Jim Callis’ recent MLB mock draft from a few days ago that has Seattle drafting prep shortstop Theo Gallen and includes a note that the M’s “also are kicking the tires on the top prep arms as well,” it kinda scares me. In no way, shape, or form, should Seattle be trusted to evaluate, draft, and develop a pitcher directly out of high school. Do some self-scouting guys. You suck at this.

I should also point out that Callis in 2023 mock drafts did, correctly, put Seattle on drafting Colt Emerson, and also projected they would draft three prep players with all of their three first round picks last year.

I don’t think I objected to that process last year as it was a very good draft for prep players. The eventual draft results in 2023 had 13 high school players drafted top 30 overall. This 2024 class the major outlets have zero prep players in the top 8, only 3 in the top 15 (where Seattle would pick), and only 9 projected in the top 30.

The other thing about high school players in 2024 that nobody is talking about; is the still-developing way NIL rights will affect the signability of prep guys. There has ALWAYS been a need for teams to go over-slot on high school draftees, but will those figures increase after another year of college baseball teams learning how to manipulate the NIL system to get their recruits to campus? If a top prospect can get $1mill in NIL going to campus; is he going to want $5mill to sign with MLB team directly out of HS? It’s a slippery slope.

Ultimately, although Callis’ intel may be correct on Seattle’s intentions; they may not be able to execute them due to lack of inventory, and cost to sign. They may be forced to pivot to drafting a college player. We should all be okay with this as this is a strong college class.

The top high school player this year is SS Konnor Griffin, who is an absolute monster at 6’4″/215lbs. There’s no way he falls to #15. The next two prep players on big boards are SS Bryce Rainer and RHP William Schmidt…neither of whom I like. The next guy up is LHP Cam Caminiti. I really like Cam, and Callis also noted in his mock that he “might not make it further than the Mariners at #15.” So there would appear to be interest on Seattle’s side, but insert previous caveat on the M’s inability to develop prep pitching.

Callis has Seattle taking a slight reach on #26 prospect, Texas prep MIF Theo Gillen, which we have to take seriously. I don’t love Gillen. There’s a neg on him that he doesn’t have the arm to stick at SS, and likely ends up at 2B. I also kinda don’t love the intangibles make-up on him. I would prefer to offer up SS Wyatt Sanford. He’s also a reach as the #35 player on the MLB board, but Sanford is one of the better defenders in the class, who should definitely stick at SS.

Just as a quick aside…is Seattle really going to draft a lefty-hitting high school shortstop for a third consecutive year?? In addition to the two highly rewarded international signees of the last two years: Felnin Celesten and Dawel Joseph. All of these acquisitions mean that four of Seattle’s top seven prospects are shortstops, and seven of their top sixteen players have some SS experience. That strategy works when drafting pitchers across a 3-4 year stretch, as you’re gonna need five starters in a rotation. But you can only start one shortstop. At some point, you’re moving like 3-4 of these guys to other positions or using them as trade bait. I don’t know.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This is not what I would do. I would draft the best college pitcher still available on my board because the M’s CAN develop that. This is a compromise of the intel that Jim Callis mentioned, filtered through the logic that Seattle is actually pretty well stocked-up on shortstop prospects, plus the knowledge that Seattle’s major league rotation is pretty well set until Luis Castillo’s contract gets closer to expiring in like 2027, and so the Mariners can afford to take a slower-developing arm. Plus, if one of the top 3-4 high school players were to fall to #15, it is more likely to be a pitcher, as MLB knows prep pitching is far more temperamental than prep hitting. The first prep arm drafted last year came off at #8 overall, and the second HS pitcher didn’t come off until #33 overall.

Caminiti is actually one of the younger players in this draft, as he won’t turn 18 until August, and re-classified from 2025 class to this year. This could also suggest a higher willingness to sign, rather than go to his college commitment at LSU. He’s trying to get SOMEWHERE a year earlier than he was supposed to.

He’s currently 6’2″/205 and touching 97mph from the southpaw side. He’s got a very good slider, and third and fourth offerings of change and curve (no order). In terms of high school pitcher, I feel a little better that this is a safer pick than most. Seattle might still fuck it up, but in my opinion Cam would be the best attempt at the worst strategy.

#2.55 – SS, Boswell HS, Sawyer Farr

My original plan was to take the best college pitcher available in the 1st, then to draft a prep shortstop in the 2nd…while researching for that strategy I found Sawyer, and I really like the profile. He’s a 6’5″/180lb shortstop that can switch-hit, and I love the intangibles. The fundamentals he has for all five tools are fantastic. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, and I think that’s a legit concern. Bonus slot for this pick is $1,641,900, and if Seattle can save enough in other rounds to bump that up to $2mill; I think they can get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi St, Nate Dohm

In my previous mock I had Seattle taking Dohm in the 4th round. I was a little concerned about Dohm’s health, as it had been some time since he had pitched, but as of today Dohm made a couple appearances for the Bulldogs on May 14th and again May 18th out of the bullpen. If he had pitched more innings this year at even a fraction of the efficacy he’s had in his limited work; we’d potentially be talking about a 1st round guy. So I’m glad to bump him up from the 4th round to the 3rd.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

This is an interesting one. I think Seattle should take some picks this year simply to target potential fast-moving bullpen arms. The 4th round may be high to start doing that, but Zsak is technically a redshirt freshman who will turn 21 (and therefore draft-eligible) on July 12th. So he’s got a TON of eligibility remaining, and it may take a decent bonus to sign him. Media outlets have him ranked as more of an 11th-15th round player on day 3 of the draft, so you could take a few different strategies to accomplish that. You could take him somewhere late on day 2 (rounds 8-10) and try to give him, say, $200k overslot money, or you could take him in an earlier round, give him $100k underslot for that round, but it still ends up more money than he’d get on day 3.

Performance-wise, Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb lefty with 4 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2024, posting a 4.11 ERA, 10.0 SO/9 and a 1.200 WHIP. You could try to take some time with him and develop him to start, but I think he might be MLB-ready by 2026 if you let him relieve.

#5.154 – RHP, Arkansas, Brady Tygart

Tygart is one of a few picks in this mock where I’m consciously going away from my own pitching metric, that no longer aligns with the M’s draft tendencies, and trying to latch onto something that Seattle IS using to identify their pitching picks. It’s a pretty big guess, though.

Tygart is a 6’2″/215lb starter this year for the Razorbacks. In 2022 he pitched as the team’s closer where some of his pitching stats actually looked better, including his SO/9 (12.2 as a closer in 2022, down to 10.5 as a starter in 2024). I think you keep him in the rotation in the immediate future, but you know the bullpen is also an option.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’1″/210lb, righty swinging, centerfielder hitting .413/.518/1.328 with 17 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 54 games. He checks a lot of boxes across all toolsets.

#7.213 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in the country this year, and even using a higher pick on him would be justified. I’m slotting him here as a senior-sign candidate. He’s 6’3″/236lbs, currently playing 1B but with some experience catching and playing outfield for Georgia, but the bat plays wherever. Hitting .361/.586/1.390 with 18 HR, 52 RBI and 50 BB; Collins is the Bulldog leadoff man setting the table ahead of phenom Charlie Condon. I’m not sure why Georgia has gone so far away from letting him catch, but the idea that there’s a power-hitting, lefthanded catcher is part of this profile is super intriguing for me.

#8.243 – 3B, Penn, Wyatt Henseler

Henseler is one of my favorite players in this class. He’s 6’1″/210lb righty that plays a great defensive third base. He’s been hitting .367/.475/1.259 with 21 HR, 51 RBI in 45 games in the Ivy League this year. He has a transfer commit to move on to Texas A&M for a graduate year, but he’s going to be 23 years old in August. As a senior, you could try to underslot him, but in this case I wouldn’t. Just give him exactly the slot of $212,900 for this pick.

#9.273 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

Vogel is another senior player. Actually, it’s worth mentioning that this draft class has an insane number of senior options. Backlog of Covid redshirts? Guys getting NIL money and deciding to stay in school? Not sure. That’s potentially a benefit for MLB teams looking for discounts for their bonus pool, but it may hurt them if they try to draft guys from the junior, or even redshirt junior, class(es).

Anyways, Vogel is 6’2″/195lbs, hits righthanded, plays a solid shortstop, and is hitting .339/.451/1.130 with 20 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB in 55 games.

#10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green

Miller-Green is an absolute unit of a guy at 6’5″/226lbs. He’s been a two-way player for Austin Peay, but his future is certainly with the bat where he’s primarily played RF. He’s hitting .395/.530/1.428 with 29 HR and 93 RBI in 54 games. Insane numbers. Even writing those out now makes me think this is too late to be drafting him. But he will be 24 in September, so it’s a calculated risk. This guy is an exit velocity monster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon St, Jacob Kmatz

Kmatz is another guy I wouldn’t have mocked to Seattle three-ish years ago. I THINK he might be Seattle’s kind of guy currently, though. He’s 6’3″/210lbs, posting 3.48 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9 in 14 starts. It’s not a splashy line, but it fits with the M’s recent profile of early day three pitchers.

#12.363 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

Gordon is another of the similar profile of part-time starter, fuller-time reliever that I’ve taken a few times this mock. He’s 6’5″/195lbs with a pedestrian 5.10 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9 and 9 saves in 5 starts and 12 relief appearances. His fastball is a present 97mph, and with the frame it’s easy to dream on 100mph.

#13.393 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

It’s a pointed intent of mine to force more lefthanded pitching talent into the Mariner system. Wilson marks a slightly different profile of lefty. He has 25 appearances this year, all of them out of the bullpen, but he has zero saves. Those 25 appearances have added up to 57.0 innings, which means that his average appearance lasts 2.1 innings. He’s more of the long-relief, middle-innings type who has a 1.175 WHIP, and 13.3 SO/9.

#14.423 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia

Again, another stab at some lefthanded pitching. Garcia is more of the “crafty lefty” profile, but he’s 6’4″/218lbs with a 3.61 ERA,1.112 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9 and only 2.1 BB/9 in 14 starts this year. If he can add some velo, I could see him be a very solid SP3 in time. Well worth the value this late as a guy turning 23 on Wednesday.

#15.453 – RHP, Western Kentucky, Mason Burns

I had originally sketched in a position player to this pick, but after looking at the entirety of all 20 rounds; I felt like I needed another pitcher. The easiest guy to cut was a utililty infielder.

I literally just wanted to find some true closer options. I liked Oregon State’s Bridger Holmes, but he was off the board. I liked the lefty Ben Abeldt out of TCU, but he just had slightly lesser metric scores than Burns.

Mason is leading the country in saves, and at 6’3″/210lbs he mixes a 96mph fastball with a solid slider to post 4.18 ERA, 12.8 SO/9, and 15 saves in 27 appearances. Seems to be a bit of a fun character, too.

#16.483 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor is another corner infielder that has come through the Ivy League en route to Northeastern where he’s hitting .405/.485/1.287 with 19 HR, a staggering 80 RBI, 14 SB in 53 games this year. I’d expect him to be drafted much earlier than this if he wasn’t turning 24 in July. Oh, and he also might be the best defensive 1B in this class.

#17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

In my previous mock for this year; I was kind of forcing a catcher pick much earlier in order to get a decent bat out of him, but after deeper consideration, I think I’d prefer to get a really good receiver and basesteal eliminator, and hope on the bat side.

Schiavone is a 6’2″/185lb catcher with a .278/.391/1.030 slash with 17 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB and a season .990 fielding percentage, and who has caught 38% of would-be basestealers this year.

#18.543 – OF, Morehead St, Ryley Preece

Preece is a holdover from multiple mocks of mine going back to last year. I like the profile. He’s a switch-hitter with a .353/.491/1.157 line, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 19 SB this year. He plays a very solid outfield, as well.

#19.573 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll

Another senior year player, Driscoll is a 6’5″/225lb starter with a 3.26 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, only 9.0 SO/9 but also only 1.8 BB/9 across 66.1 innings. Not a ton of upside, but I think he could eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#20.603 – C, Indiana St, Grant Magill

Magill is, arguably, the best defensive catcher in the country. I believe he won the college Gold Glove last year. He’s got a .992 season fielding percentage, and has caught 40% of basestealers this year. The bat is really not great…one of the worst in my database of about 400 players…at .285/.332/.757 with 6 HR, 42 RBI in 49 games. (It’s not a terrible bat, just the low end of my metric looking for projectable hitters.) I’d really just like to have Magill working with the system’s young pitchers.