As I’ve been locating, cataloging, documenting various aspects of this draft cycle; it started to occur to me there might be a post, or series of posts, illustrating various tiers of draft capital investment. In a big-picture view, this can help to establish positional priorities, and it may also lock in the tiers of talent across all positions that can help evolve a general draft strategy of when to focus your draft picks vs when to bail from draft ranges.
The first position group I’ve decided to take a closer look at is one that draft media has long said is a strength of this year: the Edge rushers. As I dug into the position in as comprehensive a manner as I could; I discovered multiple new names to add to my board, which I think supports the idea that this is a deep group.
Edge also feels particularly relevant to the Seahawks due to the news/rumors that came out during the trade deadline build-up where-in impending free agent Edge Boye Mafe was being floated as a trade away candidate. Seattle may be anticipating a good Edge draft and willing to let Mafe walk as a free agent for a potential compensatory draftpick, and replace Mafe with youth.
The format for these pieces, which I’m currently planning to do for all position groups, will be to identify a candidate(s) at a high price point (1st-2nd round), a mid price point (3rd-5th round), and a low price point (6th round-UDFA). These candidates will be weighted as much to what I believe to be current Seahawk traits under John Schneider as the buyer for a Mike Macdonald menu.
High round:
I did some pretty intensive research into what I think Macdonald likes in his Edge players. I tried to be pretty objective to the traits I think he likes, I allowed each player to have one category where they fell below standard, but they could not have two strikes against, and this led to some interesting eliminations, and certainly to some VERY interesting additions.
After going through multiple levels of eliminations; I only came away with one name still in consideration that currently has projection in the top 64 picks/top two rounds: Missouri Edge Zion Young. It should be noted there are five names that survived my process, and Zion finished fifth of five of those names.
Young has 15.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, 11 hurries in 11 games so far this year, and he has projection in roughly the middle of the second round.
I was not super high on Zion Young (#9 6’5 265lb) during summer scouting but he is playing great
He is matching his run defense (16 Def Stops) w/ his pass rush (28 Pr 5 sacks 7 QB hits 2 FF)
Again, I only came away with one player in this range: Miami Edge Akheem Mesidor. Mesidor had some interesting pings in studying the group. He has posted 12.0 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 4 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in 10 games. His consensus draft ranking puts him in the third round. I think this is an interesting idea. A trench player from a blue chip program is never far from Schneider’s heart.
#Miami DL Akheem Mesidor is going to be a very attractive option early day-three (6th year) for teams looking to capitalize on this deep edge class
This is where I felt things got really interesting. This is where I came away with three names that survived all rounds of elimination without accruing two strikes. All three of these guys currently are projecting as undrafted free agent types. Some of that will change with decent athletic testing at the Combine. Some of that will change simply because the media is less aware of these guys than NFL teams actually are.
#1 – From SMU we have Edge Cameron Robertson, who has missed three games this year, but was back in the lineup for SMU’s most-recent game vs Louisville on November 22nd. In the eight games Robertson has played, he has posted 9.0 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 3 hurries.
SMU EDGE Cameron Robertson is a rock solid player.
Week in and week out he just does his job. Strong edge setter, disciplined to containment, has length + power to push pockets.
#2 – From Central Michigan, we have Edge Michael Heldman. There’s something about the recent chatter about the Seahawks acquiring Maxx Crosby, a highly productive college player that came from Eastern Michigan and was drafted in the 4th round, that makes me intrigued with Heldman and the next guy I will talk about. Heldman has recorded 13.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 9 hurries in eleven games this year.
(Just for reference…Crosby in his draft year posted 19.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 7 hurries in twelve games.)
#3 – From Western Michigan we have Edge Nadame Tucker. Tucker was part of my recent mock draft that was primarily tape-based, and he looks even more intriguing after seeing him come out as still highly relevant in this more analytics-based study. He has 18.0 TFL, 12.0 sacks, 12 hurries, 4 forced fumbles in twelve games. He did come up short in one of my metrics, but in every other category; he really looked like a potential fit for Macdonald.
This is a very exciting player that draft media is not caught up on…yet.
Western Michigan EDGE Nadame Tucker can play on Sundays #NFLDraft
I did a separate piece of analysis this week just trying to gauge Seattle’s interest in various position groups, and it really did make it seem they may be putting emphasis on Edge rusher(s). But then the question becomes: “does emphasis mean chronological priority?” Does needing an Edge rusher on your roster mean you force a pick on one in a draft that may see some quality guys fall further down due to depth of the class? Now, I’m not saying they wait until rookie free agency to get one of the three guys I highlighted as currently projected there…I suspect that will change by April. But it might mean you can get one on day three of the draft (like Crosby).
My priority list currently goes: Tucker, Heldman, Mesidor. In that order.
We’re now a week past the trade deadline and we have an update on what picks the Seahawks have left after acquiring Rashid Shaheed from New Orleans. It is commonly being reported that Seattle has four picks left, but I think it’s five*. At the end of the preseason, we traded OT Mike Jerrell to Atlanta for a conditional 7th round pick. I did some digging and I don’t see any reason why people aren’t counting that pick other than, possibly, they’re cynical that Jerrell will hit the triggers (most likely games active or season snap count rate) to secure the pick for Seattle. But for now I’m going to include it.
So, Seattle has the picks at roughly #1.29, #2.61, #3.93, #6.207, #7.224. If we get to the draft and haven’t traded our first round pick for a veteran player; I really think John Schneider will trade back their first to get some more picks. I’m actually projecting two trades: #1.29 goes to Cleveland for picks #2.38, #4.104, #5.151 and then I have our pick #3.93 going to Denver for pick #4.103 and #4.130. Final draft pick allotment:
The next thing I’m taking a look at to inform this mock draft will be the Seahawk 2026 unrestricted free agents. We’re due to lose CB Josh Jobe, Riq Woolen, and Shemar Jean-Charles, DE Boye Mafe, LB Chazz Surratt, OT Josh Jones, RB Ken Walker, S Coby Bryant, WR Rashid Shaheed and Dareke Young. TE and DT have really good continuity into next year.
Seeing three CB as potential roster losses, and then knowing that this draft is not that strong at CB is a huge problem, to me. I’m kind of pushing a pick up for need, but it’s not a huge problem because some of the other positions we “need”, like WR and DE, have pretty good depth in this class.
#2.38 – Cornerback, San Diego State, Chris Johnson
I think we need to re-sign one of Jobe or Woolen, but then also draft a CB as early as possible. Johnson was in my previous mock but at a later round. Now I’m just cutting to the point. He’s 6’0″/195lbs, and for the year so far he has 3 INT, 7 PBU, 40 tackles, 2.0 TFL.
Chris Johnson ( San Diego State )
Chris Johnson is playing elite ball for SDSU. PFF’s top CB in CFB right now (91.0 DEF, 91.3 COV). He’s allowing 41.9% completions with 3 INTs and 0 TDs when targeted. Sticky, patient, and finishing plays at the catch point. pic.twitter.com/NISawtFKoY
Personally, I just don’t think Jalen Sundell nor Olu Oluwatimi are the future of our Center position. We need to actually address it with some urgency. Slaughter was my favorite college center in the 2024 season, and I haven’t really seen much to move someone ahead of him. I know Logan Jones from Iowa is a touted athlete with good zone blocking experience, but I just like Slaughter’s brain more.
@GatorsFB Jake Slaughter, who is in the conversation to be the top center off the board in 2026, has picked up right where he left off of last season.
Obviously, the narrative has changed on Sam Darnold. But it’s probably not the last time it does. He’ll be recency biased to death based on his two most recent games for a while.
That isn’t really what this mock pick is about. I’ve never been a fan of Drew Lock, and I’ve consistently had my doubts on Jalen Milroe. I would like to take another midround shot at finding a developmental QB. Maybe Sam Darnold continues his current play and Mensah will be an inexpensive backup QB for 2-4 years, maybe Darnold reverts to his Jets’ form and Mensah becomes a starter sooner than we’d guess in November 2025. Doesn’t matter. One thing this draft does have is depth at QB. The first round may be a QB landmine, but there are a number of guys with middle round projection and yet some upside.
Mensah is listed 6’3″/205lbs, and currently playing to a 69.8% completion, 8.7 ypa, 24 TD to 4 INT, and a 165.07 passer rating. Basically, top 15 numbers for all QB’s this year. He is a redshirt sophomore this year after spending two years at Tulane, the most recent of which he started 13 games.
I think we’ve seen enough of the Mike Macdonald defense over the last year and a half to recognize it can be massively impacted by not having the right kind of guy playing linebacker. Ernest Jones really stabilized that position when he was acquired last year…Drake Thomas has been doing some really interesting things since becoming a starter a few weeks ago…Tyrice Knight had probably the best game of his career this week with Jones inactive with his injury. All of those guys have team control for at least another year. Rodriguez is just gonna be a guy we use to take the roster spot of Surratt, while also believing Rodriguez could slip into that green dot player a year or two down the road.
Rodriguez is listed 6’1″/235lbs, and he’s putting together an impressive 2025 campaign with 91 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 3 INT, 5 PBU, and he leads the country with 7 forced fumbles.
I like this class of Guards, with a few that are college Tackles that likely kick in to Guard. For me, I’m drawn to a guy that CAN play tackle so that we have a de facto replacement for Josh Jones, but then you also get another warm body to challenge for the starting Right Guard job.
Casey is listed 6’5″/311lbs and he’s a very Northwest guy…college in Idaho after high school in Oregon. It’s a fun story to close the circuit going pro in Washington.
Love the power Boise State OL Kage Casey plays with. Should be considered a top IOL for the 2026 class pic.twitter.com/0N2dwfVCh4
After trading for Rashid Shaheed, and the subsequent press conference commentary that it seems Shaheed and the Seahawks will look to create a contract extension for him; I think we can look for a different type of WR in the next draft. In a literal sense, we’re looking to replace Dareke Young on the roster, but watching Barkate’s tape I also found myself thinking of a different receiver.
Barkate is listed 6’1″/195lbs, and so far he has posted 50 catches for 824 yards, 16.48ypc, and 5 TD in 9 games.
#6.207 – Edge Rusher, Western Michigan, Nadame Tucker
I have this idea of what Mike Macdonald covets in his Edge Rushers. Tucker is not that. After including the Macdonald type guy in my outline prior to writing this mock; I kind of abandoned it and went with the guy that looks like a potential future NFL contributor that was available late in the draft. This is a draft with some projected depth at DE, so we’re hoping to hit on one from that depth.
Tucker is listed 6’3″/250lbs with 38 tackles, 15.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 8 hurries, and 3 FF for the year. There have been numerous reports that Seattle was close to trading away Boye Mafe last week, so it seems we need to be expecting that he won’t be back for 2026 once he enters free agency next March. The big question going forward is: “what is their idea for replacing him?” Do they have a DE trade in mind that they may revisit after the season? Is there someone on the roster or practice squad that they see upside in, and will look to elevate next year? Or, are they thinking they could trade Mafe away and find someone in a deep DE draft?
CODE RUSH OF THE DAY: Speed Bull Pull Rip by @nadame_tucker
Ken Walker is another impending free agent, and it’s really not clear what Seattle might intend to do with him. For the first half of the season, they’ve really been closely monitoring K9’s pitch counts. Are they simply trying to maintain his health to get him to the postseason? Or, maybe, more cynically, they may be trying to keep his free agent price lower so as to allow them to re-sign him cheaper.
Fletcher is listed 6’2″/225lbs, and has 636 yards rushing and 9 TD’s for the year.
The only free agent I haven’t really addressed via draftpick is Coby Bryant. I do have a short list of priority free agents, one of which is Nebraska Safety Deshon Singleton. In a down draft year; it’s tough to expect much, if any, talent to fall to undrafted free agency, so these names can be taken with a grain of salt, but right now I’ve got names like Singleton, LB Jack Kelly, OG Justin Pickett that would be amazing to sign after the draft.
Tomorrow marks, roughly, week six of the college season, so we’ve got a pretty good idea of the players that have fallen out of favor from preseason mocks, and those that are rising to replace them. Unfortunately, it appears more and more like this isn’t a good year for the draft. Certainly, not in the first round. If the Seahawks were to trade their 2026 first rounder for some kind of veteran blue chip player that will help us right now; it would be a very calculated and shrewd move. I’m not going to project that move. Anyways, outside of Maxx Crosby, I’m not sure there are many of this caliber player that are also on bad teams right now, that Seattle could acquire.
I tend to think John Schneider will make some kind of move(s) prior to this trade deadline. Those moves would inevitably include some kind of draft compensation switching hands. I have a couple ideas on those types of moves I would like to see, but I am not including them in this mock. We can revisit the post-trade-deadline draft capital in November.
For now…Seattle only owns six 2026 draftpicks. Those picks fall roughly at: #1.23, #2.54, #3.85, #4.120, #5.160, #6.183.
In terms of Crosby and the Edge rusher position…I would LOVE to acquire that type of player. I have such roster envy when I see the teams with elite edge rushers. But…I have documented Mike Macdonald’s own words describing that his defensive scheme is designed to be a team passrush by design. He doesn’t NEED that elite edge rusher. Would he take one if one were to fall in the Seahawks lap in the draft?? Probably.
That brings me to my next point: when I studied this overall draft class in terms of depth of talent; I found that the two strongest positions were quarterback and edge rusher. Does this mean 1st round grade? Not necessarily. But I feel confident that if you take a dart-throw at one (or both) of those positions as a late 1st round positioned team, all the way back to the third, maybe fourth, round; you have a puncher’s chance of hitting on something great.
For me, with Sam Darnold playing as well as he has, at the contract value he is playing under, with two more QB on the roster for cheap through (at least) 2026, and with the way this college QB class is still painfully moving through transition of who the media THOUGHT would be the relevant QB’s in preseason to the eventuality of the guys that will ACTUALLY be the 1st round names and later the NFL franchise guys; I just can’t imagine Seattle’s first round pick is a QB.
I could see this more like the scenario we saw unfold in the 2025 draft where Seattle took their top guys at positions the NFL undervalues, or they could force drafting players from the shallower position groups this class that line up with Seattle “needs”. I think it’s too early to present a mock of the latter in terms of the 1st round. My mock drafts are always based around the current market price of players, and as such, in October, I can still find those need positions at later rounds.
My pick for the first round will be following the strategy of drafting from the strength of the particular draft class.
#1.23 – Defensive End, Oregon, Matayo Uiagalelei
Matayo Uiagalelei is a 6’5″/272lb junior OLB/DE. He is the brother of Charger backup quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, and cousin to UW edge Taitai Uiagalelei. He is the leading passrusher for the #6 defense in the country and his 2025 statline goes: 11 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 2 hurries, 3 PBU.
The Seahawk roster currently has Demarcus Lawrence on a three-year deal that could be a one-year deal with only $4.6mill dead-cap in 2026. Uchenna Nwosu has one more year left with an $8.5mill dead-cap hit. Boye Mafe is on the last year of his rookie deal, and Derick Hall has one more year remaining on his. We do need some reinforcements at the Edge position.
Matayo vs the run:
Matayo Uiagalelei and Bear Alexander completely blowing up this outside zone concept: pic.twitter.com/xtt5Zwlti6
In my opinion, Seattle needs get more out of their corner and inside linebacker rooms. They may address one, or both, of these positions via trade in the next few weeks. In the meantime, I am addressing both in the draft.
Chris Johnson is a 6’0″/195lb senior corner for the Aztecs with 29 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PBU, and a FF on the year. As with most of my October mock drafts every year; many of my early picks will be higher on media boards by April. But for now we can get CJ here.
I have yet to find many suitable CB for this draft class, which puts a higher priority on drafting one than many other positions. I could, conceivably, see Schneider draft one in the 1st round with two of his current starting CB set to be free agents.
San Diego St's Chris Johnson has been one of the best CBs in the nation. Great job reading and locking down the initial route, then transitions on the out of structure element to get back in position pic.twitter.com/u9dwfuU8bj
After two years of Mike Macdonald, it has become clear how important the inside linebacker position is to him. And he has no patience for guys that can’t grasp his scheme. The only mild surprise is that he hasn’t used more resources to secure quality players at the positions.
Jake Golday is a throwback to a prior era of linebacker as a 6’4″/240lb athlete at the position. He has 49 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 1 PBU, and a FF on the year. He will rise throughout this process.
Jake Golday continues to stand out in a really strong LB class. I think there are 3 future Pro Bowl LBs playing college football in Ohio right now.
He’s an elite athlete compared to most sub-LBs, but at 6’3”/240 you aren’t making any tradeoffs in run support. Plays blocks as… pic.twitter.com/109TUv4meX
After five weeks of NFL football…I think the conversation on Sam Darnold is turning from “his contract makes it easy to get out of his deal after a year” to “this is a great, cost effective contract to have on our starting QB for the next three years.” I don’t mind that because I, personally, am not a fan of our backup situation. I’ve never liked Drew Lock, and I still have considerable reservations on Jalen Milroe. I don’t mind drafting another QB in a middle round in 2026, giving him two years to backup Darnold and learn the system (and the league), and then trade away one of Lock/Milroe for draft capital. As long as we’re using mid-round picks to do it; I think it’s a worthwhile endeavor.
At the same time…this quarterback draft class is completely off the rails. The preseason guys have completely fallen off. Off fell Nico Iamaleava, and Sam Leavitt, and Cade Klubnik. Still falling off are Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier. I still have my doubts about Carson Beck, but at the moment I can’t say his play has fallen off. And then I think Arch Manning and Lanorris Sellers are prime candidates to stay in school another year.
Rising in their places: Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin, Jayden Maiava, Luke Altmyer, Dante Moore, Ty Simpson, Darian Mensah, Sawyer Robertson, and Beau Pribula. I’ve sort of tentatively circled the trio of Altmyer, Robertson, and Pribula as the three I’m focusing on. All three have had reasons to be excited so far.
Robertson leads the country in passing yards and passing TD’s.
Altmyer is second in the country in YPA, 7th in comp %, 5th in passer rating, and he’s one of three QB in the country with at least 10 TD and 0 INT that have thrown over 140 pass attempts (but the only one from a power 5 school).
Pribula’s highest ranking is completion % where he ranks third in the country, but he has Mizzou undefeated and the #14 team in the country.
I’ve recently had to cut back on my ranking of Robertson because of comments he has made in press conferences that, I think, point to him not having the personality I seek in a leader that wants to win like a sociopath. Like, I think he’s a mentally healthy human being, but mentally healthy human beings don’t generally win Super Bowls.
I have my reasons for choosing Pribula over Altmyer…most of which I’m not going to get into in this mock. Suffice to say; he is my current pick until his draft stock rises and I have to make some tougher choices. At the moment, I’m thrilled to get him in the third round.
This is NOT a good class of tight ends. Certainly not compared to the 2025 class. It would be incredibly smart for a few junior TE to declare early. That’s what Norfleet is. He’s a physical specimen at 6’6″/260lbs, and I’ve enjoyed seeing his physicality in his run-blocking and pass-catching when I’ve been watching Pribula’s tape. His numbers aren’t overwhelming at 20 catches, 174 yards, 8.70 ypc, but 4 TD’s is good enough for tied for 24th in the country in receiving TD for all targets, and tied for first amongst all TE.
Beau Pribula hits Brett Norfleet for #Mizzou’s first offensive play of the game.
There was a draft of this mock where I had Seattle taking ANOTHER first round Guard. That might be pushing John Schneider too hard on something he isn’t totally comfortable doing, after he finally broke from tendency and drafted Grey Zabel in the first last year. I’m not sure if a Center would also be pushing it, too (I do love Jake Slaughter, but he might only cost a second, anyways).
But also, I started looking at Justin Pickett. He is a 6’7″/320lb senior OL on the same side as the buzzy draft name, Brian Parker, only Pickett gets like 1% of the same publicity.
One of my favorite things to do in mock drafting is to draft backwards. Who are the guys you absolutely love, that you would bang the table for, that are currently available in the 5th-6th rounds? Okay, write those guys in pen in those late rounds FIRST, and then circle back to the top of the draft where you can take other positions with even less pressure to take a need.
I have a pro player-comp for Pickett in mind, which I can’t put on record right now. I will say the comp is a pro bowl player that was drafted on day three of his particular draft.
Pickett is #77 in these couple snaps, playing at right guard. That first snap looks like a textbook mirror drill from the NFL Combine.
Duke OT Brian Parker II has put up a 95.1 run blocking and 88.2 pass blocking grade this season according to PFF
He likely kicks inside at the next level but YHIHF, Parker can be a dominant center in the NFL with his blend of good footwork, good technique, and ability to… pic.twitter.com/qbRH7jxsd3
I’m aware that this mock draft is lacking. It’s lacking in volume, for one. It’s lacking in player for pick trades, and it’s lacking in any kind of trade back within the draft to add picks. And, I think, it’s lacking in a WR.
Some drafts you go into them trying to find stars, some drafts you go into them trying to fill free agent holes on your roster, and some drafts you go into them looking to make pointed improvements to your returning roster. For me, this year is kind of the latter. Can we improve RG over Anthony Bradford? Can we improve TE over Brady Russell? Can we improve QB over Drew Lock? Can we improve LB over Tyrice Knight? Can we improve CB over Riq Woolen? Can we improve DE over Uchenna Nwosu?
The 2026 Seahawk roster is in a good place. Our impending unrestricted free agent list goes: Josh Jones (backup OT), Boye Mafe (0 sacks), Johnathan Hankins (still on NFI), Ken Walker, Josh Jobe, Eric Saubert (TE3-4), Chazz Surratt (LB4-5), Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen, Dareke Young (WR5). That’s maybe five starters, but one of which we may already be actively shopping in trade and likely won’t be re-signed. If you did nothing else in terms of free agency; the mock draft I’ve laid out above gets you replacements for Mafe, Saubert, Surratt, Woolen without spending a dime above rookie contracts. And then some of the 2025 starters become 2026 backups. You’ve lengthened your lineup. Which might be the best case scenario for this draft cycle.
It’s becoming more and more commonly written and discussed that the 2025 MLB Draft is not very strong at the very top of the class. This is truly unfortunate because Seattle had previously seemed to get quite lucky to end up with the #3 overall pick this year in the draft lottery, when their earned draft position was closer to #15 overall. As I’ve been studying this draft class; I’m really struggling to find a guy that feels worthy of the third pick. In my previous mock, my thought was to try to find upside with that pick by drafting one of the high school players, but even that wasn’t super satisfying. Thinking like a football draft student…I really wanted to find a way to trade down the third pick. This isn’t allowed under the rules of the MLB Draft structure.
Then, a few days ago, I woke up at, like, 3:30 in the morning with this idea…
In the MLB Draft, if you don’t sign your draftpick in the first or second round; you will get to draft at the same slot plus one the following year. This means that the Mariners, if they don’t sign the guy they draft with the #3 pick next month, will be awarded the #4 overall pick in the 2026 Draft. So you would, ostensibly, be trading down one slot and one year.
The Mariners WILL NOT do this. No MLB team does this. The primary reason that teams don’t do this is that the signing bonus allotment for every team is aligned directly with the order of their picks, and in the top 10 rounds, the bonus allotment that coincides with a specific pick will be forfeited from their total bonus pool if they don’t sign the player at that slot.
In exact terms of the 2025 Draft…due to the high value of their lottery pick at #1.3, plus a compensatory competitive balance pick they were awarded at #1.35 overall, Seattle has ended up with the largest total bonus pool of all 30 MLB teams. This is only true if they sign all eleven of their picks in the top ten rounds. The M’s total bonus pool for the top ten rounds is: $17,074,400. The bonus pool assigned to the #3 pick alone is: $9,504,400. If the Mariners don’t sign whoever they end up drafting there; their bonus pool immediately shrinks to $7,570,000. This is a loss of 55% of their potential spending. And that pool can be spent in any way the team sees fit, as long as they sign someone at each draftpick. This new amount would take Seattle from the most bonus pool in MLB, to the fifth-worst bonus pool.
But here is where the conversation gets interesting. Seattle, in their 2025 season, are currently not playing to a level that they would make the playoffs. They are currently on pace to earn the #14 overall pick for the 2026 Draft. That pick would also be entered into the Draft Lottery for next year where they could win a pick in the top six or seven in that class. Seattle could, conceivably, end up with two picks in the top eight overall, and certainly two picks in the top fifteen. And, in baseball drafts, the talent level can swing wildly from year to year. Thirteen months away from the 2026 Draft, the early opinion is that next year’s class is easily better than this year’s.
If you followed this strategy…the 2026 Draft could be franchise (re)defining for the Seattle Mariners. And I think it’s worth doing.
So……in this mock draft, I am not terribly concerned with who we/Seattle drafts at #3. I think you draft a high school player, simply because they are the most likely to give the optics of being hard to sign away from their college commitment. It could be a college player…Kumar Rocker was recently an un-signed college player when he was drafted #10 overall in the 2021 Draft, he didn’t sign and returned to Vanderbilt, and then he signed after being picked with the #3 overall pick in the 2022 Draft. But, again, the optics will look better with a prep player.
#1.3 – RHP, Corona HS, Seth Hernandez
The top two high school players are IF Ethan Holliday and Hernandez, and there’s pretty good odds that one of the two will be available at #3. Righthanded HS pitching is notoriously the most-risky category to draft early, and Hernandez is one of the older players coming out of the prep class, as he will turn 19 on June 28th. Hernandez is currently, and ironically, committed to go to college at Vanderbilt. He may actually have a pretty high asking price to sign this year, so it would look believable if they didn’t end up signing him.
Again, the downside to this is, honestly, not the loss of a player at the third pick…the loss is the flexibility to make moves via overslot deals later on in the draft. They COULD still draft and negotiate to make those kind of picks happen, but it would be harder, and probably with less-talented players.
#1.35 competitive balance – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes
To me, I look at Forbes as a guy that might actually be deserving of being picked with the #3 pick. There are four pitchers at the top of the college leaderboard in SO/9…three of the four are lefthanded. The #2 guy is a reliever that has enough innings to qualify for rate stats, and the #1 and #4 guys are Liam Doyle and Kade Anderson…two starters that are getting talked about as top five overall picks. So Forbes would be the steal of the group if actually acquired at #35.
Forbes is a 6’3″/220lb, well-built, former two-way player with athletic movements and already touching triple digits. And, counter to Seth Hernandez being old for a high school player, Forbes is young for a college draft-eligible player. Patrick will turn 21 on July 11 this year…two days before the first night of the draft. This probably matters for teams like Seattle. They drafted Jurrangelo Cijntje last year when he was only one month past his 21st birthday.
It’s a mild disappointment not to get a lefthander from our first pick, but just like the general consensus is trending toward “the top ten of this class is not strong”; the consensus also believes this class has decent depth and is strong in lefthanded pitching throughout.
Anyone want over a minute of Patrick Forbes filth? I got you.
FB up to 98, sat 93-96 throughout the night with flat approach angle and significant life upstairs. Two breakers (81-84 and 87-89), flashed feel for a CH, too. 11 whiffs on the heater alone.
Speaking of LHP…as I’ve been trying to formulate my backwards-forward draft modeling; in order to pass on the LHP that fill out the top 10 overall of this draft, I need to feel comfortable with who I can get later on. Obermueller is one of the guys I’ve landed on. He’s only listed 6’0″/170lbs, and he’s probably shorter in reality, but the stuff looks like a Seattle kind of guy. The fastball is up to 98mph, and there are other things in the profile that look like our analytics.
I hadn’t looked at JQI before I wrote my first Mariner mock last month, but once I did; I had to find a way to draft him. This is a guy that is 6’5″/230lbs, he plays a very strong defensive centerfield, he has hit 16 HR with 85 RBI in 61 games this year, he’s gotten on-base at a .523 clip, AND he’s stolen 36 bags in 43 attempts. That sounds like five tools to me.
Of all the touted Seattle prospects on our farm right now; there are almost no outfielders other than Laz Montes. If we could draft a fast-moving college outfielder now, by the end of the 2026 season, Randy Arozarena will be a free agent, and Victor Robles will have a club option to be picked up (or not).
— George Mason Baseball (@MasonBaseball) May 4, 2025
#4.122 – RHP, Abilene Christian, Dominick Reid
Reid is a 6’3″/201lb righty starter that transferred from Oklahoma State to Abilene this year to, presumably, get more opportunity in the rotation rather than in the bullpen. He’s got a 3.36 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9 in 15 starts.
Massive Dominick Reid fan. His fastball sits 93-96 from a 5.6’ release with 7’ of extension. Throws his slider at 83 mph with depth and 8” of sweep. The best pitch is his CH w/ 15” of ASR, which flashes with negative VB. Also mixes a SI and SLV at times pic.twitter.com/FX1rKQZphQ
It’s kind of tough to find relief pitchers for the baseball draft because there are so many schools and even more pitchers, but no great way to filter for just relief innings. When I see any kind of reference to a good reliever; I try to make a note of the name to research him when I can, if not immediately. Craig is one of those names. Once I heard his name, I checked for his tape and his statline, and he was instantly the top reliever in my pitching metric. Listed 6’5″/209lbs; Craig has the prototypical build. His mechanics and stuff all looked good once I found some tape of him. The only yellowflag was that he will be 24 years old the week before the draft. I’m not sure this matters that much, as Seattle drafted a few over-aged college relievers just last year (including 24 y/o Charlie Beilenson in the 5th round). If we need to make some bonus slot room, this is the first spot we can save a good chunk.
Both Cross and Boston Smith would be candidates for underslot deals as potential senior-sign guys. I’ve basically ignored the prep players in this mock that might need overslot money, so I don’t really feel the need to worry about underslotting anyone either. Everybody is simply getting slot.
Cross is a 6’0″/215lb infielder that hit .396/.526/1.173 with 12 HR, 50 BB, 35 SO, and 15 SB this year. I’m, honestly, a bigger fan of his intelligence and leadership than his statline, and I still like his statline.
The emotional leader for @GoBearcatsBASE and the @Big12Conference Player of the Year, Kerrington Cross can beat you with power (12 HR) or his legs (13 SB).
The third baseman leads the Big 12 and ranks eighth nationally in on-base percentage at .525. pic.twitter.com/HQgdFGc8BK
I had Coppola in my previous mock, but his positioning might have been too high for his age and injury redflags. Plus, he was touched up a bit in his most-recent CWS start. In the 7th round, he looks more like Seattle’s 2024 draftee from the 11th round, Christian Little, who was also a once highly-touted pitcher from an SEC school whose college career never managed to take solid footing.
Coppola is a 6’8″/245lb southpaw whom has only managed a total of 49.1 innings pitched across his four-year college career, but whose stuff has earned him a 2.53 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, and 18.1 SO/9 when he has managed to pitch this year. If he falls this far, Coppola is the ideal type of high-reward player you’d love to get with a low-risk pick like this. He may end up a lights-out, high-leverage reliever and that will help him maintain his health.
• 6-8 LHP w/ tilt & extension • high volume strike thrower in 1st start • 2 out pitches. Will throw CH as 3rd pitch • Looks completely back to form in 2025@pierce_coppola | #MLBDraftpic.twitter.com/Z51pLhr0t0
Behind Cal Raleigh there’s only Harry Ford and then Josh Caron as catchers on Seattle’s top 30 prospect list. So I’m spending another top 10 pick on a catcher. Galvan strikes me as a guy that our pitching staff will love to throw to. Great receiving/throwing/leadership skills. The bat is okay at .296/.452/1.065 with 15 homers last year.
I’ve been trying to look at some of the things that Seattle might have seen in 4th rounder Bryce Miller, 6th rounder Bryan Woo, 12th rounder Logan Evans that led them to draft them, and for them to make it to MLB in fairly short order. I don’t know that I have it nailed, but Hickson is a guy that popped for me as a potential pitcher in that vein. Listed 6’2″/208lbs with 3.82 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, and 11.1 SO/9 this year.
Davion Hickson (@RiceBaseball) name to circle this spring. 94-96; T97 (20IVB/4HB) from slight low release. SL 84-86 (-3IVB/14HB) upwards 2688 RPM w/ depth. Went to CH @ 87-89 (11IVB/16HB) to LHH. Explosive armspeed; traits. ‘25 elig @PG_Draftpic.twitter.com/NspJhVk5lb
I had Georgia’s Robbie Burnett in a similar place in my previous mock, but after digging a bit deeper I realized that Burnett has primarily been playing LF this year for the Bulldogs. Freeman has been playing mostly 2B (with some RF) for Georgia State. He can switch-hit and for the year slashed .349/.504/1.236 with 16 HR, 61 BB, 57 SO, and 15 SB.
Hawks has a similar story to recent #1 overall pick Paul Skenes. Both started at the Air Force Academy, both transferred to an SEC school, both showed dominance in their respective roles for said SEC school. Hawks has been exclusively a reliever posting a 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 8 saves in 18 appearances.
Sawyer Hawks SLAMS the door and Vanderbilt survives a Wright State scare 👀
— 11Point7 College Baseball (@11point7) May 31, 2025
#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney
This late in this mock, I’m kind of looking to fill some holes and draft some positions/profiles I may not have added up to this point. So I was looking for a 1B with some power and I found Ankeney. Listed 6’4″/235lbs, Beau built on a pretty solid 2024 season at Grand Canyon University after transferring to Loyola where he hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR, 69 RBI, 30 BB, 53 SO in 57 games. His batspeed really caught my eye.
Liked Beau Ankeney (‘25 elig.) a lot in '24 and he's stepped it up in '25. Slashing .342/.440/.625 w/ 13 HRs. Ultra physical 6-4/235 frame that generates easy 70-grade juice (115 max EV) he's getting to consistently. Improved BB% and K% as well. @PG_Draft follow. 🎥: @lmulionsBSBpic.twitter.com/Hbq4dH7nlt
I had Velazquez in my previous mock. I’m moving him down a few rounds because I’m still not seeing him getting much buzz. He’s a senior-sign player that will be 23 in September. He was previously riding the bench for Vanderbilt, but transferred to Austin Peay to get more opportunity. And this year, with that opportunity, he hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR, 32 BB, 32 SO.
OPPO TACO FOR THE LEAD‼️🌮@RaymondVelazq15 leaves the yard for the second time today and delivers a huge hit in the eighth!
I have two LHP that showed up back-to-back on my pitching metric with nearly identical profile. Book and Jordan Gottesman, from Northeastern, are both 22 year old lefthanded starting pitchers getting by more on pitchability than present stuff. But I like a guy that can control the zone that we can try to build the velo with.
Book’s 2025 went: 3.53 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 12.7 SO/9, 2.1 BB/9. And he’s got the more prototypical pitcher frame at 6’4″/215lbs.
Colton Book of @SJUHawks_Base is my @d1baseball Player Spotlight this week, a LHP in really good company, currently 5th in the nation in strikeouts (64)
Stuff isn't overpowering but he gets a lot of swing-and-miss on his fastball (86.7 average velo), also throws a SL, CB and CH pic.twitter.com/RAcfmQwz3S
Another guy that is already 22 years old and a senior-sign. Humphreys plays a very strong defensive centerfield. He hit .353/.457/1.135 with 17 HR, 38 BB, 38 SO, and 21 SB. It’s a nice, well-rounded profile with a lefthand profile. After writing the bulk of this mock I found a new source that had Humphreys going way earlier than this, which makes sense. His profile shouldn’t last this long. But I can’t fit him in earlier in this version.
I had Smith in my previous Mariner mock, but in an earlier round. After seeing more of him during the CWS regionals, and not seeing his stock go up; I’ve decided to wait on him a bit. Listed 5’10″/195lbs; Smith has hit .330/.498/1.269 this year with 26 HR, 57 BB, 52 SO, and 16 SB. And he’s a lefty-hitting catcher. Like Humphreys, I would tend to think we need to pick him earlier than this.
— Wright State Baseball (@WSURaidergang) May 30, 2025
#17.512 – RF, Kent State, Jake Casey
At this point, most draft big board listings have run out of players after naming 500. So I’m really just guessing approximate draft value from names that I pinned at some point and who aren’t listed in the 500.
My first choice in these last four is kind of a superstitious pick, of which most of the story I’m not going to get into. Suffice to say…Casey is a 6’2″/190lb lefty-hitting OF that hit .356/.500/1.236 this year with 17 HR, 37 BB, 56 SO, and 20 SB. He is also a legacy player being the son of former all-star 1B, Sean Casey.
Lynch is a bullpen piece for CCU with closer experience. He transferred there after stops in Bellingham and Bellevue Community College. Lynch is an Everett, WA native standing 6’4″/234lbs with a 0.59 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 8 saves season line.
#20.602- SS, Bryant, Drew Wyers
Seattle has a pretty strong farm system full of shortstop prospects, so I didn’t really make drafting one a priority. But it’s still important to draft one to fill out your minor league roster(s).
Wyers is listed 6’2″/200lbs and hit .407/.521/1.231 this year with 11 HR, 26 BB, and only 17 SO in 45 games.
HOME RUN!
Drew Wyers ties the game with a two-run shot to left center.
Have been mighty impressed by '26 SS Jacob Lombard this weekend. Across 3 games, he's gone 6-for-8 with 2 2Bs, 1 3B and 7 RBIs. Big league body at 6'3" and 185-pounds. Relatively compact, yet explosive operation. Hands drift a little in load, normal stride. Super engaged… pic.twitter.com/1YHO0HzxCL
‘26 OF Brady Harris (@tcabaseballjax) stays on a breaking ball & lines it off the wall in RCF for a triple B1. Such an impressive offensive profile; recognizes well, premium bat speed & exits + a truly dynamic athlete. #Gators commit. #PGHSpic.twitter.com/LN5RNRPeYy
North Carolina draft-eligible sophomore RHP Ryan Lynch.
Loud debut from Ryan Lynch (rhp, @DiamondHeels). 6'3" 235-pounds. '26 eligible. Riding, power fastball. High spin, swing-and-miss stuff. Here's video of three of the Ks.
The MLB Draft is less than two months away, taking place this year July 13th-15th and this could, not unlike the 2025 Seahawk draft, become an organization-changing draft. The change began months ago when Seattle moved up from the 15th overall pick to the third overall pick in the draft thanks to the draft lottery. In addition, Seattle was awarded pick #35 at the end of the first round in the “Competitive Balance round”. These two high selections, and the slotted draft bonus pool that comes with them, have put Seattle into the driver’s seat as the team in all of MLB with the biggest allotment of draft bonus pool.
The Mariners will enter the draft with $17,074,400 in bonus pool. This will mean tremendous flexibility in how they manipulate their selections in July. They will be able to buy out higher caliber, and/or more, of this year’s best high school players from their college commitments by creating bonus surplus with selective underslot picks/signings. This could mean a higher upside draft than we’ve seen in the Dipoto era.
Certainly, we will see the highest overall draftpick in the Dipoto era. The previous high pick was 2020 when Seattle drafted Emerson Hancock at #6 overall. And it ties the highest pick the Mariners have made since 2012 when they drafted Mike Zunino at #3.
Now, unfortunately, there is a downside. I think all of these draft windfalls might be coming at a pretty bad time in terms of the quality of the draft. I, personally, don’t really love this draft class. There is no Paul Skenes, no Travis Bazzana at the top of the class. I don’t love the consensus top three players in most mock drafts. The top prep hitter, Ethan Holliday, feels stiff and unselective. The top prep pitcher, Seth Hernandez, has mechanics that I really don’t like. The top college pitcher, Jamie Arnold, is my favorite of the three, but even him I have questions on.
I would love to see Seattle go sort of unexpected and take a mild reach on someone at #3, sign him for underslot, and then attack their next few picks for upside. I think this might be a draft you consider taking three high school players in your top four picks.
Seattle needs more pitching prospects. The M’s recently became MLB’s richest farm system with nine unique players on the top 100 list, but the top seven of their nine are all position players. The two pitchers recently added are their top two picks from the 2024 Draft, Jurrangelo Cijntje and Ryan Sloan, and are ranked #92 and #96 respectively.
They may force pitching pick(s) early and often this draft. But I wouldn’t necessarily do that.
For those concerned with giving underslot deals to a player at #3…that’s not really historically relevant. Travis Bazzana was signed for underslot at #1.1 last year and Paul Skenes was signed for underslot at #1.1 two years ago. Max Clark was signed for underslot as a high school draftee at pick #1.3 also in 2023. It’s actually easier, and therefore more common, to go underslot when you draft early because the slotted money starts so much higher.
#1.3 – SS, Corona High School, Billy Carlson
A high school teammate of Seth Hernandez, Carlson is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the draft. He’ll definitely stick at short going forward. And I think his bat is underrated. He’s got more power than he’s credited with, and there could be more coming as he gains strength. He’s currently listed at 6’1″/185lbs.
Carlson doesn’t have the profile of 2019 #2 overall draftpick Bobby Witt Jr who had a thicker build and MLB bloodlines, but I feel like Carlson has the makeup to become a guy that is a multi-year all star and Gold Glover in the vein of Witt, Gunnar Henderson, or (my closest comp) Dansby Swanson.
Carlson is committed to Tennessee and he’s the #6 player on the MLB.com big board. If you draft him at #3, where the slot bonus is $9,504,400, but sign him for a value of $8.5mill, a value somewhere between the 4th and 5th pick, you’ll have another $1mill for later picks.
This is a very interesting pick location. You could try to flip your bonus savings from the first pick to a prep player that has slid down the draft due to signability requirements, you could treat this pick like your first pick from 2024 when you draft the best college righthander available at slot, or you could reach on a guy with lower ranking on national boards and just give him the bonus value at 35 that would be called overslot at 57. I’m kinda going with the middle option with Forbes.
Forbes is a 6’3″/220lb righthanded pitcher that won’t be 21 until two days before the draft. He was a two-way player his freshman year at Louisville, and so he’s technically only been focusing exclusively on pitching the last two years, and it’s only been 2025 that he’s been exclusively a starting pitcher. So there’s some reason to believe that his statline this year hides the fact that there’s still growth/upside to unlock in him.
At present, Forbes has used a repertoire featuring a fastball that is up to 100mph, that really explodes up in the zone, and a nasty slider, to strikeout over 14.00 per nine. His third pitch, a changeup, still needs work and more frequent use to stay in the rotation. But, at minimum, he should have a floor as an elite reliever a la Matt Brash.
The bonus for this pick is $2,758,300, and I’m probably trying to get Forbes for $2.5mill of that due to his young age and college eligibility still left.
If Seattle goes high school again here for an overslot deal…I prefer the bats including local product Xavier Neyens from Mount Vernon, MLB-legacy player Quentin Young (nephew of Delmon and Dmitri), or Sean Gamble. Neyens is a big-power, lefty hitting 3B. Young is probably a 3B as well, but has some of the best prep power from the right side. And Gamble reminds me a bit of Corbin Carroll, and probably profiles as a future OF that hits from the left side.
Anyone want over a minute of Patrick Forbes filth? I got you.
FB up to 98, sat 93-96 throughout the night with flat approach angle and significant life upstairs. Two breakers (81-84 and 87-89), flashed feel for a CH, too. 11 whiffs on the heater alone.
I love this draft throughout for lefthanded pitching. I hope Seattle comes away with 3-4 pretty intriguing southpaws in the top 10 rounds. Slawinski is probably my favorite lefty from the high school group. He’s not the velo king of the group, but I just love the clean mechanics and the pitchability. At 6’3″/180lbs, there’s enough frame to add some velo as he gets stronger.
The slot value for this pick is $1,636,800 and I definitely think we need to go overslot to get him away from his college commitment to Texas A&M. Last year, Seattle drafted Ryan Sloan, the #19 player on the MLB board, at pick #2.55 overall. They signed him for $3.00mill…well above the slot of $1.64mill. It might take a similar figure to get Slawinski secured. We have $1mill surplus from the first pick, so we’ll need another $363k savings from any of our later picks.
Johnny Slawinski (@j_slawinski3) was absolutey dominate today in front of @FiveToolSTX. The LHP racked up 1️⃣7️⃣ strikeouts in 6.1 shutout innings with just 4 hits and 0 BB allowed. Pounded the zone all game and ended with an incredible feat of 400 career strikeouts.
This is the first pick that is a little harder to predict. Historically, Seattle has used their third round pick on multiple occasions to save some bonus money to channel to their earlier picks. This year, however, after going underslot at #1.3, we might be able to target another prep player that is still available and give him overslot here. But just who that player might be is the hardest part to predict.
The bonus allotment for #91 is $851,800. Draft signees love some good, round numbers, so if we can bump that amount up to $1.0mill, we could get another upside prep player. Ethin Bingaman comes from the same high school team as Carlson and Hernandez (and Brady Ebel). He reminds me a bit of Patrick Forbes only three years earlier in his development. He’s currently a two-way player, but I’m going to take him as a pitcher. 6’1″/200lbs and with a fastball that presently touches 95mph with ride.
I’m pretty intentional when I look for catchers in these baseball mock drafts, and Galvan fits pretty closely to what I’m looking for. Listed 6’0″/205lbs, and hitting .299/.453/1.088 on the year with 14 HR and 46 RBI. He will be 22 years old in June, so there may be some wiggle room for bonus. I’m underslotting him about $117k.
Coppola is an interesting case. He’s a 6’8″/245lb lefty starter that shows up as the #1 pitcher in my analytic study that I do every draft cycle. The problem is the guy has only made 15 appearances across four college seasons since 2022. He made one start in 2022, missed all of 2023, made 8 starts in 2024, and he’s currently at 6 starts this year. Huge medical redflags.
But when he’s been healthy, he’s been one of the toughest AB’s a college hitter can face. So we’re taking a calculated gamble here that our pitching program can unlock some way(s) to either keep him healthy, or simply recreate him as a dominant long-reliever, maybe closer. And, obviously, due to the risk, we sign him for only $400k…$61k underslot.
— Florida Gators Baseball (@GatorsBB) May 16, 2025
#6.182 – LHP, St Joseph, Colton Book
Another college lefty, Colton Book is a bit harder to find video of, but he popped in my pitching study as one of the best values in the draft. At 6’4″/210lbs he certainly looks the part on paper. He’ll be 23 years old in August, so we get him with some senior savings (~$50k). This year he has posted a 3.20 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9 line across 80+ innings. Signing bonus: $300k.
Colton Book of @SJUHawks_Base is my @d1baseball Player Spotlight this week, a LHP in really good company, currently 5th in the nation in strikeouts (64)
Stuff isn't overpowering but he gets a lot of swing-and-miss on his fastball (86.7 average velo), also throws a SL, CB and CH pic.twitter.com/RAcfmQwz3S
After studying about 100 of the top draft-eligible college hitters; Ray Velazquez came out as one of this year’s top 10. And there is some pedigree here, as Velazquez played for Vanderbilt in 2024. This year, he’s hitting .377/.487/1.261 with 18 HR and 57 RBI. Another slight underslot signing at $250k due to age (23 in September).
OPPO TACO FOR THE LEAD‼️🌮@RaymondVelazq15 leaves the yard for the second time today and delivers a huge hit in the eighth!
I don’t have much reason for the order I’m mocking most of these guys past the top 150 picks, as most big boards available via the media don’t currently go beyond 150. I have no reference point for how the industry sees some of these players. I’ve only passively used the thought: I value catcher over third base, third base over second base, etc.
Burnett has been a very strong player for the Bulldogs this year, hitting .318/.492/1.224 with 20 HR, 66 RBI, and 17 SB. He has split time on defense between (in order): right field, second base, left field, center field.
These last three picks I’m back on track bonus-wise to allow each to receive exactly slot.
Gilley is an over-aged (almost 24) righthander that has mixed between 11 starts and 6 relief appearances, and sports a combined 3.88 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9 over 62.2 innings.
Boston Smith is another catcher that ticks most of the boxes I’m looking for, but in this case he brings the bonus attribute of hitting lefthanded. A smaller physical backstop, Smith is 5’10″/195lbs and has hit .322/.494/1.222 with 21 HR, 60 RBI, and 15 SB.
TThe 2025 NFL Draft starts six days from today. I may squeeze in a final mock next week, but as players have been ascending/descending value as we get closer, I’ve been running through simulations to try to pin down best strategy and gameplan. In doing that, I thought it might be fun to show you three of those simulations to kind of show some of the similarities and some of the pivot points where we might try some different things.
For me, every mock begins with a trade down. I’m not convinced Schneider will do this. Sometimes you just can’t do the trade in reality because reality is: you need a willing trade partner. But I WANT this trade. Badly.
The first trade in the mock is: #1.18 to Philadelphia for picks #1.32 + #2.64 + #5.161. Philly has a really strong roster, they may not have many holes to fill, so the idea of moving up for a player may appeal to them. It’s very appealing to me to not be precious with the #18 pick because I think this is one of those years the first round isn’t awesome. I much prefer stacking picks on day two, and Philadelphia is one of the few teams you can get a first AND a second in trade back, and then the fifth just rounds out the values.
MOCK #1
#1.32 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau
This is the starting point of all three of these mocks. It’s kind of just an educated hunch on my part. And that’s all I have to say about that…for now.
In this first version of these trio of mocks; I’m going to stick with our next pick at #2.50 and not trade up. I could see Seattle being aggressive this year on TE. I, personally, don’t like the value of a first round TE. Historically, those players aren’t the most elite at their position, and the sweet spot has actually been in the second to early third.
#2.50 – TE, Miami, Elijah Arroyo
Although Seattle has had Mason Taylor in for an official visit, it is Arroyo that pops in pretty much every analysis I’ve done for the position, especially when isolating for receiving vs blocking TE’s. And, actually, Arroyo doesn’t score terribly as a blocker.
We’ve heard rumors that Seattle is looking for a big bodied WR type after the departure of DK Metcalf, and I kinda think Arroyo should get some consideration in that category. His 16.86 yards per reception mark was #1 in the country for TE, and it was also top 50 in the country for all positions.
My only hesitation with this pick is that I do kinda get some Austin Sefarian Jenkins vibes from Arroyo. But that could have potentially been said about Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski when they were coming out of school. If Arroyo matures appropriately; we get a steal. If not…we might get a Netflix documentary.
As I’ve experimented with simulators with multiple trades; at some point I discovered I could accomplish much of what I was looking to do with fewer, bigger trades. One that I really came to like was Seattle trading pick #2.52 + #3.82 + #3.92 to Carolina, where former Seahawk scout Dan Morgan is the GM now, and the return to Seattle is #2.57 + #3.74 + #4.111 + #4.114.
The primary reason for this trade is: moving up in the third round, and I think we can afford to do it because I think there will be multiple options we will like at #2.57.
#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough
There was a time when I wasn’t comfortable risking to wait on taking a QB. I recently came to better appreciation for Will Howard, and Seattle invited Jalen Milroe to a 30 visit, so they must have some comfortability with him. Now, having some level of comfort with a QB mix of: Jaxson Dart, Shough, Milroe, Howard…I think I feel safer waiting until this pick to draft one.
#2.64 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson
Robinson has been a mainstay of my mock drafting this year, and one of my biggest challenges has been trying to move around the board with enough precision to still draft him as his stock has risen.
I’ve experimented with taking OL here and trying to get Robinson in the 3rd, but I’ve found this is the more consistent path to accomplishing my favored overall draft.
#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson
Do I think Wilson is still on the board this late? Not really. But if I’m given the option of pushing down the position that John Schneider openly hates, or pushing down the position that Seattle drafted as the first pick ever in the Mike Macdonald era; I’m pushing down the Center, and getting Ty Robinson earlier than the national media thinks.
#4.111 – RB, Miami, Damien Martinez
This is the biggest gap between picks in this mock (37 picks), and so when you finally get to the other side of it…you kind of have a bunch of things you want to pick. Fortunately, Seattle has two picks in a four-pick span.
It felt like, as I’ve experimented with multiple passes through simulations, the running backs I covet have more consistently been picked before I was able to get them. I’m currently looking at a group consisting of Martinez, DJ Giddens, and Bhayshul Tuten as targets with this pick. With the new OC; I’m not totally certain which kind of RB he prefers, and so this trio kind of represents some different “type” options. Tuten was really fast and ran a lot of zone concepts in college. Giddens is sort of mid-speed, mid-size and has the most shiftiness. Martinez is the biggest, slowest of the three, but also represents the most thumping, contact balance style.
#4.114 – WR, Washington St, Kyle Williams
The biggest change I’m consistently making in my mock drafts recently, is that I’m moving on from Dont’e Thornton. Between Arroyo at TE, and the two WR I’m bringing in with this mock; I kinda think I’m getting a better overall version of what Thornton is, and what DK was in aggregate, without some of the holes in their game, by going after receivers the way I am in this mock.
I’ve had Williams in prior mocks, and I’m coming back to him again now, after Seattle included him in their 30 official visits. He might be Doug Baldwin 2.0.
#4.137 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt
Lundt was primarily the RT for Connecticut last year, but as I’ve been studying it…he’s actually kind of the poor-man’s version of Tate Ratledge in this class. Ratledge was almost 6’7″/308lbs at the Combine with 32 2/8″ arms…Lundt was 6’7 1/2″, 304lbs, with 32 5/8″ arms. Lundt may end up at guard with that arm length. I wouldn’t give up on him at RT, but his quicker path to play time might come as a guard.
#5.161 – CB, California, Nohl Williams
I really like this spot to draft a CB. If Seattle can get either Williams or Zah Frazier; I think we’ll have underrated options to usurp either Josh Jobe or Riq Woolen from the starting lineup, and we’ll get better as a defense at tackling from both of Williams/Frazier.
Williams is not the fastest CB available, but his personality profile kind of reminds me of Quandre Diggs but in a corner body. This guy has a ton of “fuck around and find out” to his vibe. Which Riq does not have. And I think Riq is not long for the roster under Macdonald.
#5.172 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon
To me, there isn’t a ton of logic to drafting a linebacker in the first three rounds, when your picks ideally are starters, after Seattle brought back Ernest Jones. Plus, this draft doesn’t have a good class of LB. The better logic is: get a backup with upside. In that regard, I’ve landed on Simon as my favorite option.
With multiple picks in quick succession at 172 & 175; I would like to move down 175 and add a couple picks in the sixth round. Trade #5.175 to the Chargers for picks #6.181 + #6.209.
#6.181 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa
This might be my riskiest call. Not risky in terms of the player, but risky in terms of waiting so long to get him. I think Teslaa might be quietly an ascending player in real draft rooms. He’s a legit 6’4″/214lbs and ran a 4.43s forty, with great overall athletic testing. THIS, along with Arroyo’s running/receiving ability, is why my first WR pick for Seattle was 5’11”.
Teslaa might be poor man’s Emeka Egbuka. I have trouble picking Egbuka in the first round when our roster currently holds Jaxon Smith Njigba and Cooper Kupp, but getting Egbuka-lite in the 6th round is fine by me.
#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson
I really have zero feel for what Seattle is doing with their open nose tackle spot with the absence of Johnathan Hankins. They aren’t bringing NT’s in for visits, so we can’t get a feel for their NT body type. Maybe they actually want to move forward with the combo of Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed getting their NT snaps.
Regardless, I think there are enough draftable NT in this class to at least take a flyer on someone late. I’ve got Jackson, Nazir Stackhouse, and Cam Horsley as options. Hell, if he falls far enough, get JJ Pegues back in the mix.
#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue
In ten years, we may look back on this draft class and judge the success/failure of it based on Cabeldue. If they draft him, if they don’t, if he’s good, if he’s not. Cabes started all 12 Jayhawk games at Tackle last year, so he might be kind of a more athletic of Jake Curhan from a couple years ago. My research says his arms were measured 33 2/8″, which is borderline acceptable for an OT, but I could see him also becoming a pretty good OG. I might give him first shot at the LG opening.
#7.234 – RB, Texas Tech, Tahj Brooks
Honestly, I’m not sure how I ended up with this pick in this mock. I may have lost track of where I was in the mock, or which mocks I had got a RB. It’s not super important as it’s the last pick. This pick could be a second TE…it could be a third WR…it could be a safety, which I really haven’t found one I like.
In reality, it might be good to draft a fullback here, but most of the guys I’ve sort of passively studied for fullback aren’t even available in the simulation.
In these subsequent mocks; if a player matches up with the same player at the same pick as a prior mock; I’m not giving any commentary. I will only go into the new moves of each variation.
MOCK #2
Trade back #18 to Philly again.
#1.32 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau
Now, at some point in the early 2nd round; I think it’s potentially likely that Seattle will trade up from one of their two picks. Because we added a 5th rounder from Philly; I am willing to package #50 plus one of their 5th rounders to move up six spots to try to cut in line for a certain player. I’ve found the highest I can trade up without using a 3rd or 4th round pick is to get to Dallas’ #44. So it goes: #50 + #175 to Dallas for #44.
#2.44 – CB, East Carolina, Shavon Revel
I’ve talked in the recent past that I kinda think Seattle is looking to draft a Corner earlier than we might realize with, basically, no turnover in the Corner room after last year. I think we might be prepping to FORCE some turnover. So we need reinforcements. I really like Revel. I hated when he got hurt, but at the same time, his injury is the only reason he’s potentially still on the board here.
He measured at the Combine 6’2″/194lbs with 32 5/8″ arms. Legit big corner size. Reports are that he’s got low 4.40 speed when healthy. His injury was an ACL, which could be concerning, but Seattle did bring him in for a 30 visit so that they could get their own doctors to give him a physical.
This pick FEELS more like what Seattle wants to do than my personal projection of Nohl Williams.
Again, we do the big trade with Carolina for multiple pick swaps.
#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough
#2.64 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson
#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson
#4.111 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson
After Arroyo, Ferguson might be the second-best receiving TE in this draft. Some of his metrics stack up really favorably with some of the best TE in the NFL currently. This would be a great value if he’s still on the board.
#4.114 – RB, Miami, Damien Martinez
#4.137 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt
#5.161 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa
In this version of a mock, Kyle Williams was not picked in favor of the TE earlier, so I’m using an earlier pick on Teslaa. Which, honestly, feels like a more probable range for Teslaa to be picked.
#5.181 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon
#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson
#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue
#7.234 – WR, Kansas, Quentin Skinner
As I wrote earlier, I’m moving on from Dont’e Thornton in all mocks. I think his price has gotten too high for what he is. He’s not a complete player. And that seemed more palatable when I was getting him in the 5th round.
Quentin Skinner is kind of poor-man’s Thornton. At 6’4″/195lbs, he’s a bit skinner than Dont’e, and his pro day speed was reportedly more in the 4.51s range when Thornton ran laser-timed 4.30s flat. But Skinner gives you similar skillset. He ranked #3 in the country in yards per catch (Thornton was #1). I really like Skinner’s willingness to give up his body for the catch. I really like who Skinner is between the ears. Drafting him at this range, maybe you sneak him onto the practice squad for the year, but in 2026 he slots nicely into a replacement for MVS.
MOCK #3
We’re starting with a similar thought process, but a slightly different trade. I don’t think this is nearly as plausible as the Philly trade, but I ran it through the simulator and the results were just too good not to wish on.
This time I’m going to trade #18 to Buffalo for picks #1.30 + #2.62 + #4.132. Buffalo has three picks in quick succession in the fifth that go: 169, 170, 173. I think adding one of those instead of a fourth is more likely. And, really, I could have done this structure with Philly for their fourth rounder at #134. I kinda like the pivot to Buffalo because their second round pick is a little higher than Philly, but also…Buffalo begins the draft with ten total picks to Philly’s eight. Buffalo might be more willing to move around the board.
#1.30 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau
Same trade with Dallas to move up.
#2.44 – CB, East Carolina, Shavon Revel
#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough
#2.62 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson
#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson
#4.111 – WR, Washington State, Kyle Williams
#4.114 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson
#4.132 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt
#4.137 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa
#5.181 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon
#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson
#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue
#7.234 – DS, Wisconsin, Hunter Wohler
I really don’t love this Safety class, so I haven’t really spent much time forcing a pick there. Seattle has Julian Love and Coby Bryant returning. They signed D’Anthony Bell in free agency. I feel okay pushing safety down, if not off, the board.
Really, for this particular mock, I should have done running back here. Actually, a fullback might be the most realistic call.
Wohler has some interesting traits and production on his resume. He could be a nice special teams player out of the gate, and you see if you can develop him.
Ultimately, these mocks aren’t that different, and that is by design. There really shouldn’t be wild swings in variation. Not if you have a plan. There are a couple inflection points. In the second round…trade up or stand pat? In the second round…CB or TE? In the fourth round…which offensive skill position(s) do you take and which order?
There’s also player alternates for many of these picks. QB at #57…if Shough is gone, I think the current thought is Will Howard next. If you miss on Ty Robinson…the next guy at that profile might be a Jordan Burch or Saivion Jones. I talked about Zah Frazier being alternate to Nohl Williams. I talked about the running back alternates. Jalin Conyers is still of great interest to me if you miss on Ferguson. Teddye Buchanan is alternate to Cody Simon at LB.
If I had to choose one of these mocks as my #1 goal…of course it’s Mock #3. The luxury of having an extra 4th instead of an extra 5th allows me to get Kyle Williams, Terrance Ferguson, AND Isaac Teslaa. That’s beautiful, to me.
The negatives of Mock 3 are: 1) no running back. I’m like 90% sure John and Mike draft a running back at some point in this strong RB class. 2) I really don’t like pushing Jared Wilson into the third round. Maybe I should have used one of the 2nd’s on him, and tried to get Zah Frazier as my CB later on instead of Revel. In some ways that makes more sense with Revel’s injury, and Frazier’s full athletic testing. If healthy…I like Revel better, but it’s a big question. It sort of feels like the 2018 draft…Seattle drafts Rashaad Penny at #1.27 over Nick Chubb (#2.35) because Penny had immaculate medicals, and Chubb was coming off injury, but Chubb ended up the more productive career player by almost 5000 rushing yards.
The big question on all of these mocks is: what do you do with nose tackle? I think Seattle has been hiding something in their official visits. One of those things, I presume, is interior offensive line. I think there are clean prospects in that group that have allowed them, somewhat, to stay away. But the other spot is nose tackle. I just have a weird hunch that we’re all kind of disregarding an early pick on nose tackle too easily in the last month. Maybe Kenneth Grant, maybe Derrick Harmon, but the guy I’m super-intrigued by is Tyleik Williams. He feels like a guy that makes so much sense on paper, but who is never really connected to Seattle. And then they pick him and everybody is like, “whoa, didn’t see that coming.”
Tyleik, like Shavon, would make total sense as a target of the trade up scenario with Dallas. So maybe let’s start seeing that coming.
The NFL announced this year’s compensatory picks yesterday, so the official draft board is all but set (pending the known trades becoming official at beginning of the official league year at 1pm PST today). The Seahawks ended up with some good news: ending up with comp picks in the 4th, 5th, and 5th instead of the projected 4th, 5th, 6th.
So they have ten picks. I really, really want thirteen picks. I know this is improbable…John Schneider has never had more than eleven picks in a single year…but I’m still going to make the moves that get me there.
With the addition of a 2nd rounder from the DK Metcalf trade, and a 3rd rounder in the Geno Smith trade; Seattle has the luxury of how they value trading back their first pick. The way I see the board, I think they don’t need to add a 2nd. Instead, I’ve taken a trade that allows them to add two in the 3rd. I think this draft is very strong into the beginning of day three, or the end of the 4th round. Third round picks are very valuable.
The trade is #1.18 to Kansas City for their picks #1.31 + #3.66 + #3.95.
Trades in the actual draft are harder to execute than they are in draft simulators, so I tried to limit myself to only two trades. The second deal sends #3.92 to Carolina for their picks at #4.111 and #4.114.
#1.31 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau
Schneider has given the line about IOL getting over-drafted and over-paid…then, in recent media interviews, he’s kinda only digging in on that philosophy…and he really hasn’t paid any of the free agent OL this week, so I think we take him at his word and don’t use a first round pick on IOL.
There has been zero chatter in quite some time about Tuimoloau, and his draft stock in the media is actually 20-25 picks lower than this. Part of my strategy in this mock is to overdraft, basically, everyone so that I can repeat the results in the simulator.
JT had one of the most productive seasons of all DE in the class. We don’t have athletic testing yet, but his Combine weigh-in has him at 6’4″/265lbs with 33 3/4″ arms. One quick aside on all Combine arm length measurements that will be included in this piece: for whatever reason the Combine listed shorter arm measurements for most players that were also measured at the Senior Bowl by about a half-inch. I’m tending to give everyone that additional length back. So JT becomes 34 1/4″.
Seattle recently cut Dre’mont Jones and re-signed Jarran Reed. It currently feels like there are more snaps that will be available at DE than DT with Big Cat and Murphy returning at DT while Nwosu is an injury question mark at DE, so I’m feeling like the early pick will be weighted to going DE.
When it comes to size, strength, and play style, the #Packers aren't going to find many better fits at edge than Ohio State's JT Tuimoloau.
Lethal speed to power.
Lacks nuance and needs to develop more counters, but fits the mold for what Green Bay is looking for in a 4-3 DE. pic.twitter.com/RoXQBMW82L
I believe, if memory serves, I had Ratledge as a Seattle pick in my mock going back to October 2024. I went away from that some while he was recovering from an injury, but after his strong showing at the Combine, let’s get back in the Ratledge business.
He’s 6’7″/308lbs with 32 1/4″ (**32 3/4″) arms and ran a 4.97s forty with great explosivity in the jumps. And the tape was always good.
I’m resigned to the idea that there is only one true college center that is worth drafting in this class, and it is Wilson. There are some OT or OG college players that may move in to Center, but Wilson is the only one that played there last season. As of when I’m writing this, Seattle has missed out on Drew Dalman and Ryan Kelly in free agency. You can make the argument that 2024 draftpicks Christian Haynes and Sataoa Laumea’s play may improve with the hiring of Klint Kubiak, and moving to more of a zone blocking scheme. I’m not sure the same applies to Olu Oluwatimi. They need to prioritize Center in the draft.
Weighing in at 6’3″/310lbs with 32 3/8″ (**32 7/8″) arms, Wilson ran the fastest forty time of all OL at 4.84 seconds. And, really, the more I dig into him the more I want him on the team. If Seattle can’t add a veteran leader at Center, it might be a bit of a hack to add two guys from the same college OL that already have pre-existing chemistry.
This is a bad center class, but Jared Wilson is a top 50 player for me. Some of the cleanest tape of any OL this year pic.twitter.com/dvQV4Gq5Ty
Yes, Seattle just signed Sam Darnold. I really think that’s the Matt Flynn half of the Flynn/Russell Wilson double move from the 2012 offseason. The bigger question, to me, is “who is Schneider’s guy?” Shough is MY guy, but I’m not convinced he will be Schneider’s. Some other possibilities would be Riley Leonard, Will Howard, Quinn Ewers. I would hate for it to be Ewers, and I’d be more indifferent to Leonard or Howard.
Shough is the old man of this QB class, and I’m sure people look at his career and want to tag him with the “injury-prone” label, but each of his injuries was a broken bone. It has not been soft-tissue, knees, etc. A broken bone is kind of a bad luck injury. And Shough had three of them.
But at the Combine Shough went in to Indy, measured one of the bigger-framed QB’s at 6’5″/219lbs, he competed in all of the tests outside of agility runs, and his numbers there were quite good with a 4.63s forty, 32″ vert, and 9’09” broad jump. His throwing session was also, arguably, the second-best behind Jaxson Dart in terms of accuracy, but probably a tick better than Dart if you consider arm strength.
The buzz is starting to work its way around on Louisville QB Tyler Shough, a player that really flashed on tape pre-Senior Bowl leading to a 3rd round eval in January for me.
These are two throws that are considered elite at any level of the sport. Full eval:… pic.twitter.com/I6hymPuQ2A
I’ve had two DT in just about every mock I’ve put out in the last 3-4 months: Ty Robinson and JJ Pegues. In this draft, after they brought back Jarran Reed, I’m forcing myself to make a call and only keep one of my guys. I’m going with Robinson for his better passrush. Pegues I think can pressure the QB, but ultimately he’s more of a run-defender, and when he showed up at the Combine at only 309lbs (down from listing at Ole Miss of 325lbs), and only ran a 5.15s forty…I think we can find a nose tackle later on.
Robinson also cut weight pre-Combine to 288lbs at 6’5″, but Robinson ran the fastest forty time of all DT at 4.83s. He’s got position versatility, especially if he stayed at 288, so he could be a replacement for Dre’mont Jones, or he can pair with Leonard Williams at DT for 3rd down passing situation NASCAR packages, etc.
IDL Ty Robinson
I was scouting Nash Hutmacher, when Ty literally forced me to launch his scouting as he caught my eye
If one word had to define him, it would be impressive. That's what you'll say to yourself when you see his ability to penetrate the Line of Scrimmage
I feel like people are saying they like this cornerback class. I do not. Lots of short-armed, pretty skinny guys. There are literally two CB that I find draftable after the 1st round. I’m very much forcing this pick to get my “1A” guy.
Williams is 6’0″/199lbs with only 30 3/4″ (**31 1/4″) arms, and he ran only a 4.50s forty with just modest scores in the jumps. But, on tape, Williams is a very productive corner who posted 7 INT and 9 PBU last year. He’s a pretty aggressive player, he tackles well, but I’m just hesitant on him cause I’m sort of reading his personality with a bit of a darkness to him. Which we’ve seen Seattle bring in with Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner, Earl Thomas. Those were the guys that were productive, but you could also throw in, like, the Malik McDowell’s of their history. Can he be regulated? If I’m even reading him correctly.
A prospect I’m surprised isn’t talked about more is #Cal CB Nohl Williams…
▪️Led the nation in INTs ▪️Good in man coverage ▪️Physical throughout the route ▪️Plus instincts/eye discipline
🎥: Here’s 2 minutes of some of his best plays of the season, including the 7 INTs 👇 pic.twitter.com/pvsbzMBfjG
Possibly the first question mark pick, in terms of position, in this mock. Does Seattle need an OT? Starters Charles Cross and Abe Lucas will be returning for the final years of their rookie deals (Cross eligible for 5th year option), and they made a minor free agent move to sign Josh Jones as a swing OT/OL. Also, is Lundt even an OT in the pro’s? His Combine found him to have 32 5/8″ arms. Even with the conversion I’m using, he would still be sub-34″ at 33 1/8″.
I would just like to see them get a young guy, with four years of club control, in a draft that is strong with (especially) RIGHT tackles, that they can stash behind two guys on the last year of their deals. And, similar to getting two Georgia guys in the 2nd, Lundt could have some immediate chemistry with his college teammate from 2023, Christian Haynes. Mini-hack.
UConn tackle Chase Lundt is one of the most athletic run blockers I’ve ever seen at the college level. Executing these pulls/climbs/backside cutoffs at almost 6-7 is absurd
Ernest Jones was re-signed last weekend, so I backed down a bit from drafting a linebacker earlier in the draft, while still targeting a player with some traits that I’m looking for. Simon did not test at the Combine, but weighed in at 6’2″/229lbs. I wish he was more in the 235lb range, but with a 6’2″ frame, maybe he can add weight as we go.
He was a pretty productive player for the Buckeyes with 112 tackles, 12.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, and 7 PBU in 15 games last year.
When you have Cody Simon and Sonny Styles attacking the Quarterback good things happen💫😈 pic.twitter.com/e4BArEGQdC
This might be another point in this mock where my draft philosophy will strongly contrast from Schneider. I could easily see John draft a WR earlier than this. After losing Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, it would make a lot of sense. I, personally, just see that there are some sneakier WR upside players that they could try to find later on. We could draft the Jaxon Smith Njigba player (again), or we could try to find the Puka Nacua player from the same class.
Williams is a 5’11″/190lb receiver that ran a 4.40s flat forty at the Combine after posting season totals of 1198 yards and 14 TD. Check out the video vs likely top 5 overall pick Travis Hunter:
Washington State WR Kyle Williams vs man coverage:
I really didn’t study Teslaa until the last week-10 days when I was doing some further diligence on the whole WR class. If you want to push a position group down your board, you need to know all of the options available later on.
Teslaa measured 6’4″/214lbs at the Combine and ran a 4.43s forty. His jumps were very strong, but what really caught my eye was the fact that he ran a 6.85s three-cone and a 4.05s shuttle, the latter of which was 1st amongst WR.
He actually played primarily the slot for Arkansas last year, and his agility scores aren’t that different from Cooper Kupp (6.75 cone, 4.08 shuttle).
Isaac TeSlaa scored a 9.97 RAS, including a 4.43 40, 39.5” vertical, and 4.05 shuttle….
But how’s the tape? Well…
➖ good run blocker ➖ 0 career drops ➖ WILD contested catching (54%) ➖ 68% of snaps from the slot ➖ dominant at Hillsdale, 2 years at Arkansas (883yds, 5 TD) pic.twitter.com/KfrV6GQVbT
Necessity is the mother of invention, and similarly when you need to push a position down your board, you actually can make interesting discoveries. I think there’s a ton of reason that Seattle might take a TE earlier than this…I really like Terrance Ferguson, and he tested very well…but I found multiple data points that started pointing me towards Conyers, and therefore getting to take advantage of drafting other positions earlier.
Jalin measured 6’4″/260lbs with 33 1/4″ (**33 3/4″) arms at the Combine, and ran an acceptable forty time of 4.74s, but led all TE in the shuttle (4.27s) and the three-cone (6.94s) while also placing top four in group in both jumps.
He’s also kind of bargain basement Tyler Warren in the sense that Conyers was a Swiss Army knife player for Texas Tech, with 8 carries and 2 TD rushing, and 1 pass attempt and 1 TD throwing the ball. In 2023 he had 22 rushing attempts. Could this be Seattle/Kubiak’s 2025 version of Taysom Hill?
As I talked about earlier, I found it necessary to start looking at lower-cost options for the nose-tackle replacement for Johnathan Hankins. I’ve settled on Stackhouse. He didn’t have much production this year, but at the Combine he measured 6’4″/327lbs with 32 1/2″ arms (**33″), and ran 5.15s in the forty. It was the same forty time Pegues ran, but Stackhouse is about 20 pounds heavier.
I literally ran this mock draft through a simulator earlier today to get a feel for if it could work. I was honestly looking to spend this pick on a third WR in Dont’e Thornton. Thornton was off the board, and although I had some other players in mind with a similar skillset to Thornton, I think they might also be available as undrafted free agents. I decided to pivot to something totally different. Then, a couple hours after running through the simulator and missing on my WR3, news came out that Seattle is signing Marquez Valdes Scantling. Perfect. They can push the Thornton profile to UDFA.
(For the record, MVS is 6’4″/206lbs and ran a 4.37s forty coming out of college. Thornton is 6’5″/205lbs and ran 4.30s…so that’s the right profile, I think. My UDFA target will be Quentin Skinner from Kansas. Listed 6’5″/195lbs, but he wasn’t invited to the Combine, so we’re waiting for his pro day to get more intel.)
Very next play, Jalon Daniels rips a dot to Quentin Skinner for the TD.
Kansas went on to lose the game, but there were some big positives, largely that JD6 and Skinner looked more like themselves. pic.twitter.com/4lliM3opMG
I think Seattle needs a safety more than most people that follow the team. They cut Rayshawn Jenkins leaving Julian Love and Coby Bryant as the incumbents. I think Wohler brings a different element than both of those guys at 6’2″/213lbs (he played at 218lbs for Wisconsin). He only ran a 4.57s forty, but Julian Love only ran 4.54s, and former Macdonald safety in Baltimore, Kyle Hamilton, only ran 4.59s.
Wohler had 71 tackles in 11 games last year from the safety spot, after finishing with 120 tackles in 13 games in 2023. He’s a very high-floor player, to me. Bring him in at low cost, develop him at whatever pace you need to without the demand of having to start immediately…use him on special teams, etc…and see if maybe he might end up like a Talanoa Hufanga, who was drafted in the 5th round and went on to be a pro bowler.
Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler is a prototype box safety with a monstrous motor, awesome closing speed, and HUGE hitting ability 👀
I really like how this draft is able to unfold after acquiring those additional picks in trade. The draft should have a ton of flexibility. And I already liked how this class of players stacked up for what Seattle needs to add. I’m excited.
It’s fun every once in a while to run your draft thoughts through a simulator. It can give you in real-time a sense of players that are moving up, guys that are cooling off, places in the draft where particular position groups may bunch up, and certainly it’s an easy way to look at potential draft trades. Because trades are so easy, I have self-imposed some trade rules: 1) I’ve given myself a max of 4 trades per mock, 2) I’m not allowed to accept any computer offered trades. When the simulator creates the trade offer(s), the value is sometimes overly beneficial to the player. AKA…they’re unrealistic.
I like to make all of my trades before I even start the simulator. This allows me to just focus on the board and the players still on it. So here is what those trades looked like:
I’ve done a lot of mocking and have found 13 picks would be amazing to be able to get to, but I think one of those would have to come from the trade of a player on the current roster. Obviously, I can’t make those kinds of trades in these simulators, but also that trade doesn’t really feel like it’s coming. Certainly not at the highest end of the quality on the roster (meaning DK Metcalf).
We’ve heard multiple times now that this particular draft class may only have 16-20 first round graded players. I believe it was Daniel Jeremiah who said that the difference between pick #20 and pick #40 is minimal. And then he even expanded on that to say that it might be #18 to #45. I like trading back this draft. I like the amount of talent that should be available on day two particularly, and I think, with the salary cap situation John Schneider still has work to do on, we kind of need to plan on trying to fill most of the roster holes via cheap, draft players rather than vet free agents, which everyone seems to be throwing around carelessly (and unrealistically). With those thoughts in mind, I’ve traded entirely out of the 1st round.
#1.39 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau
After months of sort of continually mocking Seattle to draft a speed, edge rusher, which this draft is rife with; I’ve recently come around to realizing, I think the idea of DE target should be a bit bigger bodied player. I’m talking 265-275lbs rather than 245-260lbs. Tuimoloau is listed 6’5″/269lbs, and was one of the most-productive DL in the country. He did it on the national champion team, and he got better and better as the Buckeyes got into the playoffs and were facing the best teams in the country.
To recognize that I’m not drafting the best OL still on the board, a couple thoughts: whatever cap space Schneider is able to open up should be spent on a free agent OL, and specifically a center. This OL needs a leader, and I think the no-doubter best leaders in the draft are gone by Seattle’s pick. Secondly, I think the scheme we’re likely walking into can make due with lesser overall talent.
It currently feels like the consensus around town is that Seattle won’t need a linebacker this early because they will bring back Ernest Jones. I’m not so sure. I think this might be kind of the Drew Lock situation from last year, the team sincerely wants to bring the guy back, but the player doesn’t necessarily want to return. Plus, he might be able to get more money going to a team that has actual, you know, cap space.
The draft is not strong at linebacker, so if they want to draft one, they need to do it early-ish. Knight has been a favorite of mine for months now, and he’s done nothing but climb throughout the season and postseason. Up next for him is the combine, which may really open some people’s eyes on him.
I’ve given up on the idea that Geno Smith will be cut/traded, but by no means does that mean I think Seattle won’t draft one, and that draftee may end up starting sooner than people realize. It may be a variation of the Matt Flynn situation. Seattle NEEDS to get the ball rolling on a successor to Geno. This draft has a number of guys that won’t cost a 1st round pick, but have the potential to fall into the Geno/Russell/Kirk Cousins/Jalen Hurts/Dak Prescott category of QB talent.
As Jaxson Dart has entered the conversation of 1st round QB, maybe even the 2nd QB off the board, I’m already prepared to pivot to Shough, who I think has been very underrated all year. His arm-talent is pretty well-recognized, but I also think his running ability is underrated.
The climb up draft boards has already begun for Colby, and I think it will take another large step after the Combine. A natural right guard, that would be where he slots in for Seattle.
It took me a long time to sort of self-realize it, but I think CB is a bigger need on this team than I had been thinking during the season. I think Riq Woolen is overrated, and at minimum inconsistent. Jackson Jobe finished the year as a starter, but clearly he can be upgraded. And Devon Witherspoon can’t seem to get out of the slot because the team likes him closer to the snap.
Nohl Williams is rad, and that’s all I have to say about that.
Rinse and repeat. I want the duo of Robinson and Pegues to become staples of the Macdonald defense for a decade. It also would be rad to have Robinson lead-block for Pegues in wildcat.
It’s been tough to gauge where the league is valuing Lundt. I feel like this is too low, but it worked in the mock simulator. Lundt gives us an immediate replacement for free agent Stone Forsythe, and also a legit hedge for Abe Lucas’ knee.
If we’re keeping Metcalf, which we apparently are, I think the bigger draft capital probably goes to the tight end room than wide receiver.
Terrance Ferguson is surprisingly good at YAC situations and on screens. He navigates his blocks very well and understands angles. *Greg Roman had Will Dissly running this exact play a lot in 2024. pic.twitter.com/iya6kbFBCF
It only came to me this week…it’s a pretty good TE draft class…draft two. There are high-end TE that would be interesting in Warren and Arroyo, but there’s also a good number of midround guys. If not Ferguson, or Hawes, I also think Jalin Conyers makes sense for Klint Kubiak who just came from the team where Taysom Hill was the Swiss army knife player.
Ferguson is a nice receiving TE, who can block a little. Hawes is a great blocking TE, who can receive a little. Conyers is a jack of all trades. Get two of them.
Georgia Tech TE Jackson Hawes comps to Falcons TE Charlie Woerner: 💰to block
WHAM demons, combo blockers, climb to give 2nd-level linebackers the business, the 6 foot 5, 250+ (Hawes 260) frames on these guys is Day 3 🔥
I honestly think the move for Seattle won’t be signing Drew Dalman to play center, but they might go after Ryan Kelly on a smaller deal. But behind him, I like the idea of Webb getting a soft-landing without expectation of needing to start immediately, so he can take some time to get back in the habit of playing Center, where he spent most of his time playing in high school.
Really strong initial hang placement from Jacksonville State’s Clay Webb at the Senior Bowl and leans on his balance/footwork to finish the rep. Former blue-chip recruit began his career at Georgia. pic.twitter.com/sDfBvu9zlO
I only, very recently, got to looking into Williams, and as I said on twitter, he reminds me of Doug Baldwin. That would be a great type of player to add this late.
With all of the talk of Tyler Lockett being a cap casualty; I think Seattle needs to do something at WR. Getting two guys with the upside of Williams and Thornton, and who each have unique size and traits; you could, at minimum, replace Lock in the aggregate.
If there’s one thing this mock is egregiously missing…it would be a running back in a strong running back class. It’s always good to draft from the strength(s) of the class, but in this class we have good OL, good DL, good TE, and good RB. We double-dipped, if not triple, on three of the four of those. And there’s a chance you can find one that makes the roster out of rookie free agency.
We’re just beyond the finish of the week-long Senior Bowl practice and game, the Seahawks have some additional coaching additions on the heels of the Klint Kubiak hire, and so I wanted to get down on the record some adjustments to my most recent Seahawk mock draft.
Most of this comes from running my overall thoughts through an online mock draft simulator just to add some additional levels of cross-checking. I still think a good way of fixing some of the cap issues, while adding capital, is to trade DK Metcalf. I think there are a lot of teams that have cap space for an expensive player, have draftpicks to trade, need a WR1, and in a time when the draft may not have many high-end WR to be found. So, I think that trade still makes sense. Will John Schneider have the stones to do it? That is pretty doubtful, in my mind.
Instead of including the draft capital from trading DK, I’ve over-traded within the simulator. I have five trades that I made. I keep coming back to the idea that we want to come out of this draft with 13 draftpicks. That’s another unlikely outcome. I think I looked and the maximum players Schneider has picked in a single year is 11. Here are the trades:
#1.18 to Baltimore for their picks #1.27 and #2.59. I think Baltimore and Detroit make for the best trade-back partners as the value of the 18 pick should allow us to also get the late-2nd round pick from either of those teams.
There has been some media coverage of the idea that this draft there probably aren’t that many true 1st round talents. Daniel Jeremiah recently tweeted that there won’t be much different between the 20th player picked and the 40th player picked. So, once you’re down to 27, you might as well go down again. I trade pick #27 to Kansas City for pick #1.32 and #3.96.
Personally, I like the talent available in the 3rd round, maybe down into the top 120 overall. I’m gonna look to acquire as many 3rd round picks as I can. I move pick #1.32 to Arizona for pick #2.47 plus #3.78.
The fourth trade sends pick #2.50 to New England for picks #3.69, #3.77, and #4.105. And the fifth pick sends #3.96 to San Francisco for pick #3.99 and #4.112.
Final board has the Seahawks completely move out of the 1st round, but end up with 14 picks. Obviously, that’s even too many picks for what I intended to do, and if we make the DK trade we don’t need that much movement within the draft. But here is the players I end up with all of that draft capital.
In past mocks, I’ve had Seattle draft OL in the 1st round and take a safety, Nick Emmanwori, with an early pick. I’m not sure John Schneider would do the former, and the latter was openly a luxury pick. I’ve kind of cut the fat a bit in this early part of this mock.
Edge is a strong group in this draft class, and it’s good draft practice to take players from the positions of strength in any given year. It’s still not totally clear if Mike Macdonald wants to employ a 6’2″/248lb edge rusher like Ezeiruaku. In 2023 with Baltimore, Macdonald had a diverse cast of DL. Nnamdi Madubuike was 6’3″/305lbs (65% defense snaps), Jadeveon Clowney was 6’5″/266lbs (57% snaps), Kyle Van Noy was 6’3″/255lbs (42% snaps), Michael Pierce at 6’0″/355lbs (55% snaps), etc.
In 2021, when Macdonald went to Michigan to DC, he had Aidan Hutchinson at 265lbs, David Ojabo at 250lbs, Mazi Smith at 326lbs, Mike Morris at 278lbs. Again, a high variance of bodytypes, but these weren’t necessarily players that Macdonald had a hand in recruiting.
So it remains to be seen exactly what structure Macdonald would choose in his DL room given the time and resources to build them to his ideal. What I do know is that when you study the history of edge rushers; one of the predictive traits historically is pointing towards a group of players this year that includes Abdul Carter, Mike Green, Ezeiruaku, Landon Jackson, Bradyn Swinson, and Oluwafemi Oladejo. I like the value of EZ in the 2nd over Green in the 1st or Swinson in, say, the 3rd.
Donovan isn’t the tallest guy in the group at 6’2″, but his arm measurement at the Senior Bowl was 34.5″ with over a 6’10” wingspan. The NFL leaders in sacks in 2024 included Nik Bonitto at 240lbs (#2.64), Van Noy at 255lbs (#2.40), Micah Parsons at 245lbs (#1.12), TJ Watt at 252lbs (#1.30), Andrew Van Ginkel at 242lbs (#5.151), Will Anderson at 243lbs (#1.3), and Will Mcdonald at 236lbs (#1.15). Those were all top 15 in sacks. That’s 47% of the top passrushers in the league were under 255lbs last year, and 20% were drafted in the 2nd round or later.
On the current Seahawk roster, Derick Hall is 254lbs, Dre’mont Jones is 281lbs, Boye Mafe is 261lbs, Uchenna Nwosu is 265lbs, Mike Morris is 295lbs. Again, no pattern within the group, but maybe now the pattern across three teams is variety.
The other thing that I want this mock to be is: an anticipation of the NFL Combine. I’m avoiding guys that I think will test average to below average at the Combine, and trying to get ahead on guys that I think will test well. Ezeiruaku, to me, ticks a lot of boxes.
This is the first of a few points in this mock draft where I’m getting out ahead of future trend. Knight showed up to Mobile for the Senior Bowl at 6’1″/246lbs with 33″+ arms. I think he’s gonna be a riser throughout this draft process. I think there are guys in this draft that are pretenders at the linebacker spot. Knight is not that. Knight is the real deal. Knight is a grown-ass man. And that’s really all I’m gonna say about him at this time.
Hear me out: the #Panthers could consider drafting No. 17 out of South Carolina?
GA Tech➡️Charlotte➡️SC
LB Demetrius Knight Jr. has sideline-to-sideline range, good play recognition + discipline, and impressive closing speed.
There are a few points in this draft that I consider “cut points”. In a deep RB class, I don’t think getting Giddens in the 3rd round is a “must-have”. I have a list of what I’m looking for in a running back, and Giddens hits a lot of what I’m looking for. He’s 6’1″/212lbs with 1343 rushing yards last year. So this is a luxury pick that I’m giving myself because I’ve acquired all of these third round picks.
A player the Vikings should target this offseason in the NFL Draft is Kansas St. RB DJ Giddens
An elusive runner with good vision, patience, decisiveness, and burst.
Another point where I’m getting out ahead of trend. I’ve been on Shough for most of the year, and he’s not a third round pick right now. He’s probably, at best, a fifth rounder. Shough’s rise is not going to come from the Combine. This is not Joe Milton. Shough’s rise is going to come as everyone gets deeper into the game tape, and the private meetings at the Combine, and the realize the benefit to going through three college programs, with a couple times in his career he was forced to sit and study while recovering from injuries…this is a smart player. And it’s a grown ass man.
Tyler Shough drops a DIME to Ja’Corey Brooks and Louisville aren’t done yet. 👀 @LouisvilleFB
I’m not going to get into the specifics of how/why I’m landing on Lundt in a very strong OT class. Some people are going to hate drafting an OL from Connecticut exactly one year after drafting Christian Haynes from the same program. But deal with it.
Lundt is listed 6’8″/305lbs, and that’s kind of all we have on him until the Combine.
UCONN RT Chase Lundt is the best Draft tape watch of the day.
His feet, range in space, and those technical, strong hands … all this while being 6 foot 8, 305 pounds.
I ignored cornerback for entirely too long this year. But when I did delve into it, I was immediately struck by Williams. His production in 2024 was top-tier, and that might seem like the reason I’m targeting him, but it’s not. He was at the Shrine Bowl, but for some reason I can’t find his official weigh-in. He was listed 6’1″/200lbs by Cal.
Cal CB Nohl Williams has outstanding ball skills. But I'm even more impressed with the edge and physicality he put on tape.
Robinson is a long-standing member of my mock drafts. His official Senior Bowl weigh-in came out as 6’5″/296lbs. The floor here is Brent Urban, who played for Macdonald in Baltimore as an over-sized DE. Robinson has DE/DT versatility in his Nebraska tape. I don’t think you want to use him primarily as a DE, but he has that in his bag for jumbo, short-yardage packages.
Watching Pinstripe Bowl & Nebraska DL Ty Robinson @T_Robb99 is a monster.
6’6 310lb – massive run stuffing DL who has a violent/motor to him. Captain – 11 TKFL 6 sacks in’24
I’ve said it before and I still think it holds merit…if you trade DK, the primary replacement targets MIGHT go to a tight end, not a wide receiver. Especially in this TE class. If we can find a guy that is pushing 250lbs and runs under a 4.6 forty…that’s a nice get.
I started to include Ferguson prior to the Senior Bowl, and I’m keeping him after. New, official measurements: 6’5″/245lbs with 33 3/8″ arms. I like the combination of athleticism and blocking he brings. We just need him to pass medical testing for his past knee injuries.
Pegues, like Robinson, is a long-standing member of my mocks. We’re keeping him. Official Shrine Bowl measurements were 6’2″/323lbs with 33 1/4″ arms. He’s not a true nose tackle, but he can play there. He also can play running back and fullback, which may come into relevance in the new Kubiak scheme.
I had barely started to look at Webb prior to the Senior Bowl, but I was immediately impressed. He’s got recent history as a LG for Jacksonville, but prior to that he also was a center recruited to Georgia. He’s 6’3″/310lbs with 32 5/8″ arms. I think he might be a future center, but he might stay at guard for his rookie year until he can get more familiar with the playbook, when he’ll become the center.
Really strong initial hang placement from Jacksonville State’s Clay Webb at the Senior Bowl and leans on his balance/footwork to finish the rep. Former blue-chip recruit began his career at Georgia. pic.twitter.com/sDfBvu9zlO
If DK becomes a trade chip, we need to find a replacement for him. A lot of recent talk has Seahawk fans connecting them to TCU’s Savion Williams, who might be 6’5″/225lbs. DK at Ole miss was 6’3″/228lbs. But I don’t think Williams is actually the comp for DK. They aren’t the same skillset.
Thornton was at the Shrine Bowl where he was not measured. He was listed by Tennessee as 6’5″/214lbs.
Savion this year had 60 catches for 611 yards and 6 TD. DK’s last year at Ole Miss he caught 26 passes for 569 yards and 5 TD. Thornton this year for the Vols caught 26 passes for 661 yards and 6 TD. See what I’m saying?
And it’s important to recognize that, I think, Thornton shows on tape that his hands aren’t perfect. He has a lot of double-catching on tape. But DK wasn’t a natural catcher when he came out of school. DK has worked on that, and improved. We’ll need Dont’e to do the same.
This is another cut point in my mock. I don’t think this is a need pick.
The Seahawks DL snap counts last year: Leonard Williams 300lbs 66%, Jarran Reed 306lbs 60%, Dre’mont Jones 281lbs 55%, Byron Murphy 306lbs 40%, Johnathan Hankins 325lbs 34%, Roy Robertson Harris 290lbs 17%, Mike Morris 295lbs 6%, Quinton Bohanna 360lbs 0.6%. They didn’t use a true nose tackle, basically, at all. Hankins is a free agent, and whatever name you give his profile, I have his snaps going to Pegues.
I don’t think the mock drafts having Seattle drafting Michigan NT Kenneth Grant maybe don’t know what Macdonald wants to do. I think they showed this last year when they drafted Murphy, and passed on his Texas teammate T’vondre Sweat. They want their starting DL to have versatility. A true nose tackle is a specialty player that, I don’t think, they will invest in early. And they may not invest a pick in one at all. They may try to find a guy in rookie free agency.
Jackson weighed in at the Senior Bowl at 6’7″/339lbs with 34″ arms. I like his value late more than over-paying for, say, Deone Walker in the 2nd. I think Jackson is in a group with Yahya Black at 6’6″/337, 35″ arms and Jamaree Caldwell at 6’2″/342lbs, 32″ arms of guys you wait on until late.
Florida’s Cam Jackson (#99) is like an oak tree at nose tackle. He’s 6’6”, 342 and anchors the D-line in the run game.
A second pick at WR would be another cut point. I don’t think we need to do this, but it’s a way to get ahead of UDFA. I really like Keandre, who is Kam Chancellor’s nephew. Only 6’0″/193lbs at the Shrine weigh-in, but he’s got 33″ arms and a nice catch radius. He reminds me a little bit of Terry Mclaurin, who I loved when he came out of Ohio State.
Lambert-Smith would be a really nice WR3 if the roster allows it, but he was Auburn’s leading receiver this year after leading Penn State in receiving in 2023. He CAN do that, too.
I love his ability in contested catches, and the route running is very solid.
The annual college all-star Senior Bowl game will be played six days from today, and practices for the game begin on Tuesday, so what better time to get in a last minute mock draft to sort of plant my flag for some of the guys high on my list that may soon be moving up higher on the consensus list.
In terms of the Seahawks, it’s really feeling like they need to have a big draft. I’m talking big in terms of volume of picks. I keep looking at it, and I think this might be best served as a 12-13 pick draft. I don’t think we’ve ever seen John Schneider draft more than 11 in a given draft, so they probably won’t go to 12, but they also probably won’t make the player trades I’d like to see them make to acquire draft capital AND to accelerate their dead money problem now so that they can have a cleaner slate for 2026. Unfortunately, Schneider never takes the full measure. It’s always half-measures, that keep us perpetually in the upper-middle class of the NFL.
Seattle has one of the league’s worst cap situations heading into the new league year. Moves will need to be made. It’s just gonna be a question of which players take the brunt of the cut(s). The biggest cap hits that will make for potential trade/cut include: Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Dre’mont Jones, Uchenna Nwosu.
The recent league-wide coaching search has potentially opened up some interesting possibilities for the Seahawks. Former head coach Pete Carroll’s hiring in Las Vegas, and former offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer’s hiring in Dallas could create a better trade market for Seahawk players that overlapped with their respective time in Seattle. The Raiders, in particular, could be a team to watch due to their #2 most cap space in the league. They have some big holes at QB and WR to fill, and they can afford to pay whoever they choose to fill them.
If just looking at teams with need at WR; I think both the Patriots and Chargers are top 5 in cap space and could use someone like DK. I tend to think there won’t be much of a trade market for Geno. He saw free agency a couple years ago, didn’t get much interest, and returned to Seattle on a pretty team-favorable deal. The Pats have 9 draft picks to trade with, the Raiders have 10 picks, and the Chargers have 11. All three teams tick a number of boxes that would point towards a good trade match.
I’m currently most interested in a Patriots deal. I like it for the possibility of swapping DK for a mid-round pick AND getting New England QB Joe Milton as part of the return. The Pats hold two picks at the top half of the third round at #3.69 and #3.77. If we were just to trade DK with no Milton add-on; I would want a 2nd-round plus draftpick. Let’s do the deal for 3.69 and Milton.
The next factor to consider is how the first round of this draft class is stacking up. How many true 1st round players are in there? How many players with similar grade will plausibly be available from, say #18 to #50 overall? I like trading back. And it’s gonna be many trades to get from 8 picks up to 12. I’m not giving analysis on who and why the trade partners are…this is just trying to line up positioning for better points in the draft.
The first move I’ve got #1.18 traded to Detroit for #1.28 + #2.60.
Immediately I flip #60 to Jacksonville for #3.70 + #4.105.
We keep moving it down with #70 to Carolina for #3.74 + #4.112.
And finally #74 goes to Pittsburgh for #3.83 + #4.121.
Before we get to the actual picks. I already know some of these are gonna get blown up by rising tides. This is just for now.
#1.28 – OL, Ohio State, Donovan Jackson
There are a number of spots throughout this mock where I’ve got symbolic duos. At this one, we’ve got two guys that should be day one starters at left guard. If we get either Jackson or Tyler Booker, I think we’re off to a fantastic start to the draft. Honestly, this pick could open up if we included some of the tackles that might slide inside to guard like Wyatt Milum. It’s, overall, a very strong OL draft, and that’s one of the reasons I like the trade back to start adding volume.
Jackson gets might slight nod over Booker due to the way he adjusted to playing left tackle for the Buckeyes after the season-ending injury to Josh Simmons. And, really, with Schneider’s recent comments about guards over-paid and over-drafted; maybe a guy that most-recently played well at tackle, can be the exception (see: Germain Ifedi).
This pick needs to be a leader. I feel confident that Jackson, Booker, Milum, Armand Membou, Josh Conerly all have very strong leadership traits. The Seahawk OL, as currently contructed, doesn’t have a leader. Certainly not one that is playing well enough to remain in the starting lineup, and lead from the field.
Fully caught up on Donovan Jackson’s tape & the shift he made in the playoffs was incredible.
W10-14 when he first moved to LT was an admirable performance from someone playing out of position. Last 4 games was legitimately shutdown tackle tape. Verified 36-in arms in HS btw pic.twitter.com/317jxT7CQj
I don’t have a great, articulate justification for this pick. Do the Seahawks have room for a high-priced safety pick?? Do they need a starting safety? It doesn’t really feel like it. But that also makes this feel like good drafting. This will be the best player available if he falls this far. He won’t.
I like everything that Emmanwori brings to the table. He’s a 6’3″/227lb safety that should light up the Combine. He’s as big as many modern linebackers. He posted 6.77 tackles per game, which is a lot for a safety. And he had 4 INT and 2 PBU, to demonstrate his coverage ability. This could, potentially, be Mike Macdonald’s new Kyle Hamilton type that he can just create around.
I wanna see what a back 7 would look like with Nick Emmanwori and 6 clones of Nick Emmanwori starting at every safety/cornerback/linebacker spotpic.twitter.com/UiPPooIxkv
Defensive end is one of the strongest positions in this draft, so it will be a bit of a game of draft chicken to push drafting one this far. It’s probably the smarter move to take one with the #50, but I think Emmanwori is the rarer player.
There’s an underlying theme to this entire draft class. Kennard matches up very well with this theme. He’s 6’5″/255lbs and had an impressive 15.5 TFL, 11.5 sacks, and 10 hurries. One of his most-notable performances was the game he played vs likely 1st round pick OT Will Campbell.
Excited to see Kyle Kennard at the Senior Bowl next week 😈📝
The Seahawks have some issues to resolve along the DL. As we mentioned earlier, there are some potential cap casualties that could be lost. But there are also the free agents: Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins. We need some fresh bodies. And they can kinda be all different body types. Dre’mont is 6’3″/281lbs and plays mostly outside. Jarran is 6’3″/306lbs and plays some undersized nose tackle. Hankins is 6’3″/325lbs but was never really the run-stuffer his size would suggest.
I kinda like targeting some DL that have versatility. Robinson has it in droves. He’s 6’6″/310lbs and he’s played all over the DL for the Huskers, not to mention some fullback. Last year, he had 12.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 7 hurries, 4 PBU, 1 FF, and a blocked kick. I think he can absorb snaps from both Dre’mont and Jarran.
Tight end is a few things in this draft: it’s a good position group, it’s a player that could figuratively give you some replacement production for the traded DK Metcalf, and it’s another of my player duos. Michael Arroyo is the counterpart to Ferguson, and he might be the better candidate to replace DK, but he also might post the better forty time at the combine and be drafted earlier.
Ferguson is 6’5″/255lbs and his season included 43 receptions for 591 yards and 3 TD. The key to Ferguson is his ability after the catch.
Back-to-back money plays from #Oregon TE Terrance Ferguson (6-5/255) on the arc block and the screen/run.
For whatever reason this year, I haven’t been looking closely at the corner class. When I started correcting that omission recently; I almost instantly fell for Nohl Williams. He’s a 6’1″/200lb corner who posted 7 INT and 9 PBU. When I crack open the tape; I thought his press technique was immaculate. His footwork is very good, and I think the long-speed might be REALLY good.
#Cal CB Nohl Williams has some jaw-dropping press man reps
Here, we find our third of the duos. In what is overall a very cool class for right tackles; I’d like to see Seattle draft one of Lundt or Ozzy Trapilo. In a practical sense, this guy can replace the free agent Stone Forsythe, but really we’re trying to find an eventual replacement for Abraham Lucas. Just in case.
Lundt is the better rush blocker, and Trapilo is the better pass blocker. I’m going with the run-blocker until we have a larger sample size on what Macdonald likes.
UConn tackle Chase Lundt is one of the most athletic run blockers I’ve ever seen at the college level. Executing these pulls/climbs/backside cutoffs at almost 6-7 is absurd
Going back to the DL, I think we need a big time run-stuffer, and there are a number of big body guys we could look at. The thing is…I’m not sold that Macdonald wants to use a true nose tackle…like somebody that weighs over 330lbs. I think he wants to disguise defensive play call by using players with versatility. Everybody on the team needs to be able to play both run and pass so that teams can’t audible out of play calls, or if they do they’re audibling to something we can also still defend.
With Pegues, we get a bit more heft from his 6’2″/323lb build. I believe those measurements went official yesterday at the Shrine game weigh-in. Oh, and 33″+ arms. So more heft from Pegues, and more versatility. Pegues can also give you DE snaps (see below). And he’s lowkey electric as a running back in goalline or short-yardage situations.
This year, JJ had 13.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 hurries, and 7 rushing TD. And just a great dude.
It’s been one of my greatest frustrations the last few years that John Schneider passes on drafting a QB anytime in the 3rd-6th rounds. They could have had Sam Howell at 5th round cost, instead of what became a 3rd round price in trade. They could have drafted Joe Milton directly instead of DJ James, who never even made it out of training camp.
Shough is a 6’5″/225lb, 6th-year senior, who will likely be available later in the draft than his tape suggests because of his age. I think the age thing on draft QB’s is incorrectly considered. I think some maturity in a QB is actually helpful.
In terms of production, Shough had 3195 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT, 62.7% completion, and a 148.15 passer rating.
Give me a QB competition between Joe Milton and Tyler Shough and I’ll love the upside of the 2025 Seahawk offense.
You: *a simpleton, watching the presidential debate*
I’ve been saying for weeks that this is a very good OL class…but not at center. I like Florida’s Jake Slaughter quite a bit as an OL intellectual. As part of my due diligence, I was ticking off some of the Senior Bowl players that I was not familiar with.
Coming from Jacksonville State, I definitely had not looked at Webb. One of the first things I found was that he actually was originally committed to Georgia as a center. At Jacksonville State, Webb was playing left guard, and interestingly he does it with no gloves. This guy is old school. Oh, and his measurements are 6’3″/310lbs.
Jacksonville State’s Clay Webb (#74) could be the top G5 offensive lineman in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Explosive puller, great pad level, and strong hands to turn and seal. Georgia transfer is a monster in the run game. pic.twitter.com/rubJQDbUFe
Linebacker is an interesting conversation in this draft. There aren’t many strong candidates. You either draft one before the end of the 3rd round, or you push hard into the late rounds and hope Ernest Young re-signs.
For the longest time, I was trying to force the former method. Only in the last few days did I come to terms with doing the latter. And I’m kinda digging it. I had been stashing Knight in my back pocket as a guy I wanted to make the back half of a LB double-dip.
I actually love Knight in the 6th more than I did Carson Schwesinger in the 3rd. At 6’2″/245lbs, Knight is already a throwback to an era of linebacker from 10-15 years ago when they were this big. I watch Knight’s tape and I think his size plays. The dude has more stopping power than most of this group. And his speed/athleticism is really underrated.
South Carolina LB Demetrius Knight Jr. is a big, athletic linebacker who has gotten more attention as the Senior Bowl approaches.#BuildingTheBoard
Positives: ✅ Big, strong, and athletic linebacker with excellent length and sideline-to-sideline speed ✅ Not afraid to combat… pic.twitter.com/wJ7PS4GEZb
It’s a very good testament to the depth of WR this year (and most years) that I have, like, 5-6 names I want to draft here. And I’m still considering taking two WR in consecutive picks.
I’m going with Skinner for checking the most boxes. He’s 6’5″/195lbs and has really good body control. He only had 25 catches this year, but they went for 557 yards (a very high 22.28 ypc). He had only 4 TD, but if you look at his efficiency stats…16% of his catches went for TD, and a ridiculous 52% of them were explosive catches. I think there’s more to be found in there.
On tape, I found myself noting time and time again how wide open he was. You rarely see that anymore. But he also can win contested. He’s a very well-rounded WR, and he can play special teams gunner.
Very next play, Jalon Daniels rips a dot to Quentin Skinner for the TD.
Kansas went on to lose the game, but there were some big positives, largely that JD6 and Skinner looked more like themselves. pic.twitter.com/4lliM3opMG
I think it’s important draft strategy to take guys from the position groups that are strong in a given year. Everyone knows this is a good RB class. But, for me, that also meant I ended up pushing RB further and further down my board.
Mullings is listed 6’2″/233lbs and rushed for 948 yards, 5.12 YPC, and 12 TD this year.
Some names that I just couldn’t find room for, but liked:
At WR, I really like Kam Chancellor’s nephew, Keandre Lambert Smith. Not a huge body, but he’s great winning in the air contested. He had a ton of explosive plays, and some very intriguing analytics.
Dont’e Thornton is another WR that I’ve got pinned. He’s a huge body guy and he should blow up the combine. He might be the most 1-for-1 replacement for DK…but that includes the fact that his hands are a little sketchy. DK had that, too, and god bless him, he’s improved that as a pro.
The third WR I’ve got in mind is Pat Bryant from Illinois. Again, he’s got REALLY interesting analytics. And I like Ja’corey Brooks and Andrew Armstrong…two very productive guys this year…at the right price.
Mullings was kind of a throw in as my RB pick. I like some other guys more, but just didn’t feel like we needed to push that pick. I love Kaleb Johnson and Omarion Hampton, but can Seattle really be spending another 2nd round pick on a RB? I think DJ Giddens is potentially the best value RB when we look back at this draft in 5 years. I just wish he was a bit thicker. And Damien Martinez had some great analytics from his 2024 season that popped in my research.
I like QB Jaxson Dart better than most of this class, and if we’re not getting Joe Milton back; maybe I make a move on Dart (and still draft Shough late). The buzz on Dart is really starting to pick up, so we’re probably using a 1st rounder to get him, and we might need to use the #18.
Some OL guys that popped in my analytic look at OL included Florida’s OT Brandon Crenshaw and Georgia OC Jared Wilson. These feel like Seahawk picks, too.
I haven’t given him a full tape-study, but TE Jalin Conyers popped in my analytic study. So he may be the third TE behind Arroyo and Ferguson for mid-rounds.
At DE, I had LSU edge Bradyn Swinson in my rough draft for this mock. Good production, some very good intangibles, and he had some numbers pop in the analytics study for DE projectability.
Up next…Senior Bowl weigh-in, practice, and game. Then Combine. Then we try to steal info on Seahawk 30 visit names. Then we draft in April.
Seattle Seamocks 
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