mlbdraft

Mariner 2025 draft redux

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The 2025 MLB Draft is now in the books. Teams have three more days, I believe, to sign their draftpicks from this class, and so we have bonus figures on over 80% of the total player pool. Something I’ve done for a few years now after the draft is to put together a post-draft mock that incorporates the actual draft position of players, as well as factoring the bonus figures they sign for, in order to document a plausible full draft that Seattle could have made.

My rules for this:

Obviously, I can’t draft someone at pick #35 that came off the board at pick #34. I do allow myself to “reach” on players as much as I want.

The 21 total draft selections must be players that have signed with their respective teams. I can’t pick a high school player, for example, that turned down opportunity to go pro in favor of attending college. I do allow myself to draft a player that went undrafted, but signed as UDFA.

The 21 players’ bonuses must total under the bonus pool Seattle went into the draft with, and, for picks in rounds 11-20, any bonus over $150,000 will count towards the bonus pool for rounds 1-10.

Lastly, it’s not a rule, per se, but I did have a guideline where I tried to draft the same as Seattle did in terms of position ratios. Seattle drafted 13 pitchers, 8 bats…so that was my target. If Seattle drafted three catchers…I tried to draft three catchers. But sometimes I would fudge a bit in order to match traits (power righthanded bat) instead of defensive position.

One more note before we start…I had heard before the draft that Seattle was struggling to find a way to actually spend the amount of bonus pool money they had, which was the second-biggest pool in all of MLB. I kind of get that now. It really was hard to find ways to spend the last, roughly $800-900k. Once you get out of the top 75 picks, or so, there really aren’t many high school players that received overslot deals, and that I also liked as prospects.

I had briefly considered taking someone other than Kade Anderson at pick #3 in order to see how a bigger underslot deal there could affect the rest of the draft. It really wasn’t going to do anything for me beyond the third round. And it wasn’t even much of a difference-maker in terms of who I could target in the top 100 picks.

So we begin the same as Seattle.

#1.3 – LHP, Louisiana State, Kade Anderson

The only other real thought for me here was to reach on Patrick Forbes. I really liked Forbes. Forbes was picked at #1.29 and signed for $3.00mill. That’s $5.8mill less than Anderson got. And I can’t take Forbes at the Mariners’ next pick at #35. The optics just don’t work.

I don’t love Anderson as a prospect. I think he’s more similar to Emerson Hancock than Logan Gilbert, etc. But Hancock has made it to the show, and he’s had some good stretches of pitching in Seattle. He may still get better in time. But if you re-drafted 2020 now and still took Hancock at #6 over Garrett Crochet (pick #11), Pete Crow Armstrong (pick #19), Jordan Westburg (pick #30); I think you’re crazy. There will be players taken after Anderson that are better than him. And Forbes might be one.

Obviously, Anderson maintains the same bonus of $8.8mill.

#1.35 – SS, Don Bosco Prep, Nicky Becker

This pick and the second round pick could be interchanged with no real difference in the grand scheme. I moved Becker up because as the actual draft was unfolding; I was uncomfortable with how slim the prep shortstop board was getting, and I would have pulled the trigger on Becker here.

He gets the same bonus here that Seattle gave him at #57: $2.75mill.

I am passing on Luke Stevenson because there is a lefthanded college catcher further down the board that I prefer.

#2.57 – LHP, Lyndon B Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

Seattle drafted a prep lefthanded pitcher in their actual 19th round in Cam Appenzeller, who quickly confirmed he was already on campus at the University of Tennessee and wasn’t sure why Seattle drafted him.

In my case, I get my favorite prep lefty, and he did sign with the Angels for $2.5mill.

#3.91 – 3B, Foothills HS, Tim Piasentin

This is the biggest move away from Seattle’s actual draft that I am making. Seattle did not draft any third basemen, and were pretty limited in the number of prep players they drafted. I thought all along leading up to this draft that the best move was to be aggressive on the upside of the prep players, rather than the high floor with little upside of the college class.

I liked Piasentin pre-draft, but had never really found a spot for him without knowing his bonus request. He signed with Toronto for only $747,500, which is only about $100k more than what Seattle actually spent on Griffin Hugus with their literal third round pick. I think that’s a steal.

#4.122 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

I had Taylor in my mocks pre-draft, and I still think Seattle should have drafted him. His now stuff profiles very well to me, and he cost $36k less than what they paid Mason Peters. The thing I noticed about Seattle’s actual draft class this year was that they seemed to be avoiding guys that were older, true “senior sign” candidates. Which, to me, is a weird thing to decide as a wholesale strategy. But Seattle drafted some older guys in 2024, and have had numerous injury issues from that class, so maybe this is their fix for that.

#5.152 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Again, Smith was in most of my mock drafts. He’s a lefthanded, power-hitting, good defensive college catcher. Very similar profile to Luke Stevenson. The difference is…age. Stevenson is only recently 21 years old…Smith will be 23 later this year. But…Smith’s hit tool, and eye at the plate are currently better than Stevenson’s.

Boston signed with the Nats for only $50k. So this is a huge savings to reallocate to other rounds.

#6.182 – RHP, Arizona St, Lucas Kelly

I had a couple other names I was interested in pre-draft, and they fit in this spot both selection-wise, and bonus wise (one of them could have actually saved an additional $75k), but part of my goal is to split the difference between my thoughts and what Seattle thought about how to structure this draft.

And Kelly has some interesting traits. Obviously, his velo stood out amongst this class. I feel like Seattle has gotten into some trouble when they’ve hunted pure velo if/when it came at the expense of other things like control, but they didn’t do a ton of that this year, so I’m gonna allow it this one time.

Kelly’s bonus stays the same at $325,000.

#7.212 – LHP, Old Dominion, Dylan Brown

I had more interest in finding some lefthanded options for Seattle in this draft. I’m not sure why they don’t prioritize them more. Even if Seattle analytics has some number that shows righthanded pitchers do better in TMobile Park, or something, there is still a ton of value that could be found by drafting, developing, and then trading lefthanders. As I’m sitting here writing this piece today; LHP Brandyn Garcia was just traded last night as part of the package for Josh Naylor.

Brown is a big-bodied southpaw at 6’5″/230lbs that started 15 games for Old Dominion this year. He could be similar to Garcia (who was 6’4″/235lbs) along his development path in that he’ll start for as long as he can, and then get moved to the bullpen once he gets closer to the big leagues.

#8.242 – RHP, William & Mary, Carter Lovasz

I first spotted Lovasz in 2024 when he was having a better year for W&M out of the bullpen. This year his numbers (mostly ERA and BB/9) took a big step backwards (SO/9 did tick up a bit to 13.4), and so I kinda stopped tracking him. But he signed with Atlanta for only $7500 in bonus money, which is very helpful to me.

The thing about mocking picks to Seattle…after they drafted some of the unknown pitchers they did, who didn’t have any particularly impressive stats…you’re pretty free to hunt traits in spin or break, etc, and not worry about stat lines.

#9.272 – LHP, Texas, Jared Spencer

In this particular spot; I need a slightly cheaper player than Jackson Steensma. Like, it’s only like $30-40k difference. In this case, I wasn’t intentionally looking for another LHP…I was prioritizing the signing bonus first. As a guy, like Steensma, who is coming off surgery (shoulder for Jared); Spencer only costs $165k, but arguably there’s more upside than with Steensma.

In the 10 starts Spencer made before surgery ended his season; he posted a 3.27 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, and 11.4 SO/9.

#10.302 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

IIRC, I toyed with drafting Davis in some of my mock drafts. I’m coming back to him now knowing where he was picked and how much he signed for. He kind of reminds me of the Lucas Kelly pick because you’re counting on player development. This is far from a finished product. In fact, he’s pretty rough around the edges. But I love the stuff and the athleticism from a big 6’5″/181lb frame. Obviously, you try to put some weight on him and get him stronger.

His bonus is $397,500.

#11.332 – C, Ballard HS, Truitt Madonna

Madonna is a prep catcher that is from Seattle (Ballard HS), but who somehow evaded me in the pre-draft process. But he’s a 6’3″/215lb kid that hit .279/.360/.872 with a couple HR in 43 AB’s in the MLB Draft League against primarily college players.

With Harry Ford potentially on the trade block; it felt like Seattle could fit in its next high school catching prospect.

Madonna signed for $654k as an 11th-round pick of the Padres. $504k of this bonus will count towards Seattle’s bonus pool.

#12.362 – RHP, Wofford, Carter Rasmussen

It’s a little tough to know for sure how Seattle plans on using some of their pitching draftees in terms of starting vs relief, so it’s tough to match one for one with them. Rasmussen was a reliever for most of his career, and in 19 apperances last year at Wofford posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, and 11.9 SO/9.

Rasmussen signed for $150k.

#13.392 – OF, Kent State, Jake Casey

I had Casey in my earlier mocks, and so I’m going to keep him over the likes of the late-round outfielders Seattle actually drafted in Aiden Taurek and Brayden Corn. I’m not totally sure what the appeal is on those guys. Corn had middling pop, decent basestealing, and middling plate discipline. Taurek had middling pop, middling basestealing, decent plate discipline. I’d say Casey has decent pop, decent basestealing, decent plate discipline.

He signed with Toronto for $150k.

#14.422 – C, Florida, Luke Heyman

I never put Heyman into my mock drafts, but looking at him after Seattle picked him; I kinda like the potential. He’s already one of the better defensive catchers in the class. The bat is kind of just solid across the board. The power isn’t extreme but he hit 13 HR, the plate discipline is neither extreme patience or overly swing-and-miss. This is a good range for a quality receiver that you hope to build the bat upon.

Heyman was Seattle’s only overslot bonus from rounds 11-20, so $80k of his signing counts towards the bonus pool.

#15.452 – RHP, Arizona, Casey Hintz

When I could, I kept Seattle draftpicks intact. In this case, I’m moving Hintz up a round cause that barely matters when there is no slotting. His bonus was and remains $150k. Seattle kinda drafted a bunch of weird, low-slot righthanders this year. I don’t know exactly why. My guess: they’re taking multiple stabs at finding the next Logan Evans. I’m trying to cut some of the fat, and trim that down to my favorite of the group, which was Hintz.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Seattle drafted some outfielders from pretty small schools in Brayden Corn from Western Carolina and Aiden Taurek from Saint Mary’s, so it doesn’t feel far-fetched to draft Thibodeaux. Thibs was one of the best hitters in the country last year and his signing bonus is $150,000.

#17.512 – RHP, Anthony Karoly

Karoly remains from Seattle’s actual draft. It’s tough to find video of Karoly throwing, but the statline is interesting: 4.18 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, and 16.9 SO/9.

#18.542 – RHP, Landry Jurecka

While prepping this story, I took a look at many of the late-round draftpicks from around the league that I hadn’t really taken a look at prior to the draft. Jurecka was one that I saw and liked. Jurecka split time between starting and relieving (10 starts, 5 relief appearances) and finished with a 3.21 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 9.4 SO/9 in the college season, and he also made three very strong starts in the summer Appalachian League where he gave up only 1 earned run across 14.0 innings.

#19.572 – RHP, Alabama, Braylon Myers

Myers was an undrafted player signed by the Cubs. He posted a 2.63 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 12.7 SO/9 in the SEC this year. Doesn’t have big present velo, but he can spin a breaking ball pretty well. If you can build him up to, even, 94-95mph; this could be a nice player.

#20.602 – CF, Dallas Baptist, Nathan Humphreys

One of the hardest cuts I had to make was pivoting off Seattle’s own pick of OF Korbyn Dickerson. I really like the potential for a power righthand bat that can stick in CF. Humphreys hits lefty, but otherwise has many of the same traits. He hit .353/.457/1.135 with 17 HR’s and 21 SB last year while playing elite defense. He went undrafted, so I have to guess at his signing bonus. I’ll just give him the max $150k.

All told, the top ten rounds of this draft class would have cost Seattle $16,482,900. Add to that an additional $584,000 from overslot deals in rounds 11-20; it brings the total cost of the bonus pool to $17,066,900 of the allowed $17,074,400. So I got it down to within $7500 of the bonus money. I kept it the same as Seattle in terms of pitchers to position players (13 to 8). I drafted a few more LHP than Seattle (5 to 3). I drafted a couple more high school players (4 to 2). From a position-player standpoint, I really only made one change where I drafted a 3B instead of a SS, but the SS in question was drafted in the 20th round and Scott Hunter was immediately talking about potentially converting him to a pitcher. And I even kept six of the exact same players as Seattle. Seattle drafted more guys that are 20-21 years old…I drafted more guys that are either 18 or 22 years old. I feel like this is a better balance than what Seattle actually did.

It will be fun to look back at this piece 3-4 years from now to see who actually had put together the better draft class.

Mariner mock: July

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to July, 2025. We are now less than two weeks away from the MLB Draft. Cliff’s notes summary: the Mariners have the biggest draft bonus pool in all of MLB to work with, they have the #3 overall pick, and it is a terrible year to have that high of a pick. The top end of this draft class is widely considered underwhelming, but the depth is thought to be good. The two players currently most associated with Seattle at pick #3, Oregon State SS Aiva Arquette and Florida State LHP Jamie Arnold, would probably not be drafted in the top 8-10 picks in most years.

Some people think that the Mariners NEED to draft a college player that could move quickly through the minors so as to help the MLB club sooner than later in this “competitive window” we’re in where we have so much young, controllable starting pitching. I disagree with that thought because the Mariners have one of the deepest farm systems in the league. Much of that depth projects to be ready to debut in MLB this year or next. A 2025 draftpick from this weak first round pool will not, likely, surpass the players that Seattle already has between A+ Everett and AAA Tacoma in twelve months.

So then…what does one do? I’ve talked for several weeks now that Seattle could, in a sense, trade down the #3 pick. How does one do that in a league that doesn’t allow trades of most draftpicks? You don’t sign the player you pick in a given round. That pick then becomes guaranteed to land one pick later in the next year’s draft. So, for example, Seattle’s #3 pick this year would become the #4 pick in 2026. A small sacrifice to make, but you might actually come out ahead in the aggregate as the 2026 draft class looks much stronger at the top of the draft than 2025.

Seattle will not do this. No MLB club ever really consciously does this. Mostly, that reasoning comes from the fact that the overwhelming largest chunk (about 55%) of Seattle’s total pool is tied to the #3 pick. If you don’t sign a player in that slot; you lose the corresponding bonus pool allotment. And bonus pool, more than anything, equals draft flexibility. The draft golden rule: He who has the bonus pool, makes the rules. Seattle could pre-negotiate with, basically, any player in the draft to the largest single signing bonus in the league. Which could, in theory, mean they could get the #1 player with the #3 pick (should they choose to spend the money that way).

They could also choose to spread the $9.5million designated for the #3 pick out across multiple picks/players, and therefore take advantage of the expected depth of this class. Because Seattle won’t use the “trade down” strategy, it becomes the best option, in my opinion, to spread the bonus pool out to multiple players.

Which players do you spread the bonus pool around to? In a year with mediocre college talent; you draft for upside from the ranks of the high school players. This is the best strategy for this specific draft class.

#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson

I had Carlson in my earlier mock draft and I’m coming back to him now as we’re closer to the draft. I did a pretty deep dive (the top 150 players on the board per MLB) simply logging the highest graded tools for all players. Baseball grading scales top out at an 80 grade for any given trait (hit, power, run, arm, defense, or any specific pitch type for pitchers).

In this class, there are zero 80-grade traits, there are two 75-grade traits (both are LHP fastballs), and ten players with a 70-grade trait. All of the 70-grade traits from pitchers are fastballs, and the majority of 70’s for position players are from run-tools. The big outlier on the grading scale is the defense grade for Billy Carlson. He is the only 70 score in the top 150 players (and probably the entire draft if I had checked).

I also came up with my own metric to put all position players on the same grading scale. When I did that, the #1 overall position player was Carlson. I don’t know why he isn’t ranked higher on most boards (he is #7 per MLB, but that should, arguably, be like #4). Well, I have a guess. It’s cause all media (and probably most teams) over-value present graded power. The “power tool” for baseball players is basically akin to the forty time for NFL players. It’s easiest to see and understand. But that doesn’t mean it’s best or right.

Carlson is the smoothest player in this whole class. Yes, that is how he moves on defense at short, which he rightly gets credit for, but it’s also his actions at the plate, which he doesn’t get proper credit for. This guy understands how his body works, and he knows how to use it. I think he has an innate understanding of launch angle. All that he needs is to get stronger. Which is probably one of the easier things to fix when talking about a guy that is only just out of high school.

Now, for the business side of things. Carlson is committed to Tennessee for college should he decide to, either, wholesale forego the draft, or not be able to negotiate an agreeable signing bonus in the next 12 days. MLB teams will know this information before the draft, but the greater public may not (some players announce these things beforehand, but many don’t).

Because Carlson is ranked the #7 player in the class; should he get drafted earlier than that; there may be an expectation that he take an underslot deal that is closer to the #7 pick value. The exact value of the Mariners’ #3 pick is $9,504,400. The exact value of pick #7 is $7,149,900. If Seattle takes one of the lower ranked players, and signs him for closer to $7,500,000; that player wins by getting more than they were projected to get, and the club wins because they have ~$2mill pocketed that can be offered to overslot players later in the draft.

Honestly, if Seattle is as good at scouting/drafting as their reputation suggests; they should be able to do this maneuver at a high success rate. You’re, in a sense, getting 2-4 upside players for the price of one.

If not Carlson; it would be pretty interesting to see Seattle go underslot on Arkansas RHP Gage Wood. He has a small sample size on his 2025 performance, and there is a medical question on his shoulder health, but when he has pitched this year; he has been arguably the best pitcher in the class. And it doesn’t appear that he will make it to #35 now.

#1.35 – CF, IMG Academy, Sean Gamble

The second part of going underslot at pick #3 is the behind-the-scenes negotiating that has to happen quickly before this next pick. Seattle can/should immediately start talking to the high school players they covet that are ranked, roughly, between #12-#30. Seattle needs to use their bonus pool superiority to “outbid” the teams that are actually on the clock in that range so that our target player tells those other clubs not to draft him because his signing figure is too high (but it’s not gonna be too high for Seattle).

The prep players in the 12-30 range are: SS Steele Hall, SS Daniel Pierce, 2B Kayson Cunningham, LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, 3B Gavin Fien, OF Slater de Brun, 3B Xavier Neyens, 3B Josh Hammond, OF Sean Gamble. My eye is drawn to the last three names on that list.

Xavier Neyens is the local product out of Mt Vernon, WA with bigtime power from the lefthand side.

Josh Hammond is one of the higher ranked pure hitters in my study. He has some possible two-way play ability, and hits/throws righthanded.

Sean Gamble has a great overall profile with high marks on all traits. He could be a second baseman, but more likely goes to centerfield. He’s got a pretty good eye hitting from the left side.

These guys have college commitments to respected college programs: Oregon State, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt, respectively. It could take a decent bonus to sign them away from college. The natural bonus slot for pick #35 is $2,758,300. If any of these three players were drafted at their matching big board value (they are ranked players #25, #26, #27); their signing bonus companion would be between $3.6mill down to $3.3mill. That is roughly the amount I would project to spend for overslot at pick #35.

I’m going with Gamble over the other two options for his position-versatility. He might be a second baseman, but he can definitely play centerfield. I’ve kind of got him projected like a Corbin Carroll type of guy.

#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

In a move similar to the drafting of Ryan Sloan at pick #55 last year; I’m taking my favorite prep lefthander in the 2nd round. I love the present pitchability he brings, and I’m looking to help him add velo. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, so I’m putting Bryce Miller on the phone with him to help upsell the M’s pitching lab. And then, of course, I go overslot the #57 pick that starts at $1,636,800 and I will push that number up to $2.75mill to get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Tulane, Michael Lombardi

I had a couple college arms that I had my eye on as potential targets at #35, but both have seemed to elevate out of reach of that pick, so I’m turning to the next tier. Lombardi has a similar profile to Patrick Forbes in that both were two-way players in college, but with a new freedom to concentrate on pitching; I think his game can be elevated.

He is only a junior at Tulane, so I will go slightly over the $851,800 slot to get him signed. I’m calling it a $900,000 bonus.

#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin

Franklin, like most of the arms coming out of Tennessee this year (and in recent years), has a bigtime arm. I counted at least six college pitchers that hit triple-digits this year, and Franklin was one. I like his overall profile a bit more than most of the others, and as a junior class guy; I will give him overslot money, as well. This pick is worth $617,200 and I’m penciling him in for $700,000. As a true reliever, this could, potentially, be a very fast-mover once in the system.

#5.152 – RHP, Zane Taylor

I think the second and third tiers of college pitching will go pretty fast in this draft, so I’m pushing the issue on the guys I like best from those tiers. Taylor is one of my favorite starters in this whole class, so I’m really just hoping that he lasts this long. He did recently turn 23 years old, so that may help him drop a bit, and then we can potentially save a bit of money on him as a senior signing.

I’ve allotted $237,400 to sign him.

#6.182 – C, Wright St, Boston Smith

I guess I worry that most of my favorite guys will be gone before I’ve got them listed in every mock, but that certainly applies to Boston Smith. He is one of my favorite guys in the entire draft. This is a lefty-hitting catcher with bigtime power and a pretty underrated catch/throw skillset behind the plate. He is a senior, so as long as he’s still on the board; I think we can go underslot at $237,400…identical to Zane Taylor.

#7.212 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a holdover from my previous mocks, and I just continue to juggle where I think I can pick him before the league does. Restating the backstory…this is an overaged guy with bigtime stuff and performance when he has played, but he’s barely played across four years in college. Huge injury redflags. But Seattle has taken chances on many guys like him before, including Bryan Woo and Teddy McGraw. If we have to move him to the bullpen to put less tax on his arm…so be it.

Bonus money here will be $187,400.

#8.242 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Another pure reliever; Hawks ticks a lot of boxes at 6’4″/225lbs after transferring from the Air Force Academy to Vanderbilt before this last year. A 1.60 ERA and 8 saves in 18 appearances in the SEC is nothing to sneeze at.

Another senior, the bonus for him is the same as Coppola: $187,400.

#9.272 – OF, Kent State, Jake Casey

Casey is the son of former MLB All-Star, Sean Casey, and he had a great year at Kent State hitting .356/.500/1.236 with 17 HR and 20 SB.

We’re still in senior-sign mode and Casey qualifies. That, and a small-school discount, means he gets $112,400.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

It’s not necessarily a strength of this draft class, but I think it’s a need in the Mariner farm system to add some more righthanded thump. Depino hit .354/.505/1.235 this year with 20 HR and 21 SB.

I’ve got his bonus the same as the 9th round: $112,400.

#11.332 – RHP, Michael Winter

Seattle has occasionally used their pick in the 11th round to draft an overslot player. Well…technically rounds 11-20 are not slotted. They all have the same max value of $150,000 with anything above that counting against their total bonus allowance for rounds 1-10.

Last year they gave RHP Christian Little $200,000 in the 11th round out of LSU. In 2019 they gave C Carter Bins $350,000 (this was when the max was $125,000 before counting towards bonus pool) out of Fresno State. And in 2018, they gave prep RHP Damon Casetta-Stubbs $325,000 also in the 11th round.

I especially like this strategy in 2025 when Seattle is starting with such a big bonus pool. That is why I drafted six consecutive senior signs in rounds 5-10, and why I noted such specific signing bonuses for them. I am planning to put away a total of $850,000 in bonus pool rounds 1-10, so that I can add that to the “slot” for pick #332 of $150,000, so that I can draft and sign my fourth (and final) high school player.

Every year there is a slew of high school players ranked as top 10 round players, but who go undrafted because they wanted a certain dollar figure to sign away from college. I want to have a full seven-figure amount to be able to offer them.

Who this player will be is very tough to forecast. This is going to be a guy that has “fallen” anywhere from three to eight entire rounds due to a price tag that isn’t publicly-known.

Michael Winter is ranked at exactly #200 by MLB’s big board. He is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher out of Kansas who only just turned 18 in June, and who has a college commitment to Dartmouth, in the Ivy League. That’s an interesting school to try to figure out. It could absolutely suggest that Winter has education as a priority. It could also suggest that he didn’t get many big offers from schools better known for their baseball programs.

If Winter has the grades/IQ for Dartmouth…maybe he’s smart enough to know Seattle has a strong pitching lab, and that could pull him away from school. Well, that and a big friggen check. The bonus here will be $1,000,000 (for Winter, or whichever prep player they can agree with).

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola, Beau Ankeney

As I mentioned earlier, I’m looking for power-hitting righthanded bats. Ankeney is 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

Fossum is a local product…born in Bellevue, went to HS at Eastside Catholic, and played three years at UW before transferring to Youngstown before this year. He’s also been known to get his work in at Driveline. And maybe that’s why Fossum’s bat took a huge jump this year allowing him to hit .382/.496/1.274 with 23 HR in 220 AB’s after only hitting 1 HR in 65 AB’s in his entire UW career.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

Daniels I found while trying to identify a second baseman that I liked, since my mock didn’t have one yet. A good-sized athlete at 6’0″/200lbs, Daniels hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR this year.

#15.452 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibs I had in my previous mock, and I’m keeping him. He was one of the highest-scoring players of all positions in my hitting analysis. A huge average guy at .439/.544/1.199, but he also showed good pop for his small stature of 5’8″/175lbs with 18 HR.

#16.482 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book

Book is not an eye test guy. His stuff is far from over-powering. But he really popped in my pitching metric, and so I’m trusting that a bit, while not going too crazy with a high pick on him. Listed 6’4″/210lbs, he had a 3.53 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 12.7 SO/9 on the year.

#17.512 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines

This is very much a flyer pick. Hines is a 6’3″/230lb outfielder with a commitment to Alabama. He’s got a pretty weak throwing arm, I don’t love the run-tool, he probably maxes out as a DH, but the dude hit like crazy last year to the tune of a .438 avg and a 1.508 WHIP. Plus, to the best I could find, he hit the most HR from the high school ranks in the country with 20 HR. I don’t know how much it would take to sign him, and I haven’t earmarked additional funds for him, but sometimes you make a pick and see what happens. Maybe we get the 11th round pick signed for less than $1mill. Maybe Seattle dips into the penalty range over their bonus allotment that means it gets taxed additionally (they could go up to $850k over slot before hitting second level of penalties). Maybe Hines just really wants to sign.

#18.542 – C, Colin Hynek

I, personally, like drafting two catchers every year, but Seattle has also seemed able to find a decent second catcher in the undrafted free agency period after the draft in multiple recent years.

Hynek has some work to do as a hitter after slashing .230/.396/.982 this year, but he did hit 18 HR while showing decent receiving skills.

#19.572 – LHP, Western Kentucky, Cal Higgins

Who doesn’t love a guy named Cal. A big boy at 6’5″/240lbs, Higgins had a 1.87 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, and 10.8 SO/9 out of the bullpen for the Hilltoppers this year. He’s recently committed to Texas in the transfer portal, so this might end up like Brian Walters was for Seattle in the 2024 Draft…an unsigned late round reliever.

#20.602 – 1B/3B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez

Velazquez has one of the biggest discrepancies between where he came in on my hitting metric, and where he lands on media draft boards…which equals value. He is a former Vanderbilt player, but never got much opportunity while there. After transferring to play for the Governors, Velazquez hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR this year.

I have zero expectations that Seattle does anything but draft chalk at the #3 pick. They’ve never been creative with their drafting on their first pick. They usually draft a player that is media-ranked in the range they pick. They usually pay him roughly slot, if not slightly over. They usually leave someone on the board that they would have been better off drafting.

Fortunately, they’ve had better success with later picks. If they can come away from this draft with two future MLB top 100 prospects from the picks between 35-212; it will be a successful draft. But still…it’d be nice to see them over-achieve that considering the opportunity that their luck leading up to this draft has afforded them.