mariners

Mariners offseason plan

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been spending some time this weekend thinking about what the Mariners could do this offseason, after signing Josh Naylor, to improve upon their 2025 season. What combination best fills the holes of free agency while staying within the structure of budget that is certainly at play from ownership?

This is what I came up with.

I’m sure this won’t be the most popular structure, and I’m fairly certain the front office has a plan that will be perceived more popular, but this is my pretty objective thought.

#1 – Sign one of the posted Japanese players.

It’s been a minute since Seattle has had a substantial Japanese presence on the roster, but I think there is value, both on the field and off, to be found there.

I’ve targeted 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto as the Japanese signing I would pursue. Yes, he is the older of the two big bats, but the power is not that much less, and I think the pitch recognition is so much better and should travel. I think many people think Okamoto is JUST a first baseman, but I like his tape at third, where he won Gold Gloves as recently as 2022, I believe, to be adequate to replace Eugenio Saurez.

As far as Geno…it’s hard to say goodbye to him. I think he brought an emotional character to the clubhouse that was important in both of his stints here. If Geno would be willing to take the same money as I’m proposing Kazuma takes; I would probably just keep the continuity with Geno.

Speaking of the contract…most industry writers project Okamoto gets 3-4 years, and then it’s a pretty wide range of money from, like, $12 to $16mill AAV. I’ve budgeted him at three years, $40.5 million, or $13.5mill AAV.

#2 – Trader Jerry season.

We may NEED to see some trades this winter. Having spent on Naylor, and with the club expected to spend decently on someone else in free agency, we’re going to need to augment the roster with some younger, cheaper, but still MLB-proven, players. We have the farm system that should support making some of these moves.

Trade #1: In my model, I found that if Jorge Polanco gets the contract he’s projected to get; it will be one of the better values in all of MLB. If Seattle does go that route…hey, cool. It’s probably not a bad move. But I, personally, just worry about extending too many of these players that are aging out of their prime.

So, my first trade would be to send the #75 prospect in all of MLB, and the #7 prospect on the M’s top 30, OF Jonny Farmelo, plus our #18 prospect, RHP Michael Morales, to the St Louis Cardinals for IF/OF Brendan Donavan.

The Cardinals have the #5 prospect in all of baseball, JJ Weatherholt, set to debut in 2026, so they’re going to need a position for him to play, and so maybe they make Donovan available.

Donovan has position flexibility, but he spent 82 of his 97 starts last year at second base, and that will be where I pencil him in for Seattle in 2026.

In terms of the return going to the Cards…honestly, this is my most important trade, so I give them their first choice of any of our #6-#8 prospects, Michael Arroyo, Farmelo, or Jurrangelo Cijntje. But when I looked at their farm system; it just felt like they could use outfield help more than 2B or pitching.

Donovan is an Arbitration-2 player about to turn 29 in January, with club control through 2027, and he should cost roughly $5.75mill this year. Last year he hit .287/.353/.775 with 10 HR, 50 RBI in 118 games.

Trade #2: In order to replace some of the power lost by Polanco not being re-signed; I’m going to try to add some in the outfield. I am sending the Detroit Tigers #8 prospect SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje plus OF/IF Luke Raley in order to acquire OF Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter destroyed Seattle in the postseason, so Mariner fans may have some mixed emotions about this one, but Carpenter is a 28 y/o who hit 26 HR in 130 games last year, with a slash line of .252/.291/.788, but a career OBP of .322, so we’re gonna try to straighten some of that back out.

Raley ends up the short straw between he and Dom Canzone in terms of who we would prefer to retain as a bench lefty outfielder. His ability to backup 1B is also now covered by Okamoto. There just really isn’t space for him, and he’s also the more expensive of he and Canzone, as he was projected to make $1.75mill next year. That’s not nothing when we’re pushing as hard as we can up against the “salary cap”.

Carpenter has three years of club control remaining, and he should cost about $3.5mill this year depending on arbitration. He may end up in true platoon with Victor Robles in right field, as Carpenter hit righties at a .257 clip while Robles hit .213 against them, and then Robles hit lefties .289 while Carpenter hit .217 off them.

I’m sure a lot of fans, and probably the front office, bristle at the idea of trading away Cijntje, but we’re holding onto Ryan Sloan and 2025 first rounder Kade Anderson, who probably fit better in the timeline of our pitching development/cost progression anyways. I felt like we NEEDED to part with someone quality to get an MLB player with “now” ability and cheap club control. That looked like Cijntje.

Trade #3: I’ve got a couple of smaller trades that fans may not immediately recognize, but trust me…I didn’t so much fucking homework on these. I’m sending 2B Cole Young to the Kansas City Royals for righthanded reliever Lucas Erceg.

Erceg kind of ends up a cap casualty for the Royals who have probably a tighter budget than Seattle, and will have multiple arbitration raises to work through. Erceg is a bit older as he will turn 31 early in the 2026 season, but he has club control through 2029, and should cost about $2.00mill this year. It’s not that different from when Seattle got ahold of Paul Sewald in his age 31 season.

Erceg has been a very solid reliever for the last two years between Oakland and Kansas City posting sub-4.00 ERA’s including a 2.64 mark last year. His strikeouts were down a bit in 2025, but his velo and pitch metrics are still very strong.

Young becomes somewhat expendable with Donovan acquired and Colt Emerson nipping at his heels in AAA already. Emerson may, eventually, be the replacement for JP Crawford at SS in 2027, but he probably has to start somewhere else when he debuts in 2026. In a scenario where Emerson plays 2B; Donovan could play LF with Randy Arozarena benched vs RHP. The Royals like this trade as they can either make Jonathan India available in trade immediately, or slot Young in as his replacement in 2027 and give him another year to develop.

Trade #4: This is the smallest, but perhaps sneakiest, trade of all. I’m sending #12 prospect OF Tai Peete to the San Francisco Giants for lefthanded reliever Erik Miller.

Miller is a big boy at 6’5″/268lbs and he posted a 1.50 ERA, but pedestrian 6.0 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 numbers across 36 appearances and 30.0 innings for the Giants in 2025. His season ended early when he was placed on the IL in early July with elbow soreness from which he never came back. Obviously, this trade would be contingent on a physical, but I like the “buy-low” nature here in order to acquire a lefty that touches 99mph with run. And he’s only 28 in February with club control through 2029 and should only cost $820k this year.

Even if the injury is still not fully resolved; there is enough meat on the bone that this could be a useful trade across the life of the deal. This could end up sort of resembling when Seattle acquired Andres Munoz while he was in injury recovery for the Padres. We got Munoz on August 30, 2020 after he didn’t appear at all for SD that season, and he didn’t pitch for Seattle until October 3rd, 2021.

After all of these transactions, the Mariner rotation remains fully intact. The defense should be better with Donovan > Polanco, and potentially Ben Williamson starting at 3B with Okamoto at DH. Power rates may be down a bit, but contact rates should be better (really, we are mistakenly taking credit for Saurez’ 49 homeruns, when in fact he only hit 13 for SEA). The farm system maintained our top 6 prospects, along with keeping guys like SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, OF Yorger Bautista, SS Nick Becker from the top 15. And we didn’t blow our remaining (expected) $23mill budget surplus on one guy. We’ve addressed 2B, 3B, OF, RHP, and LHP. We’ve got relatively younger without becoming inexperienced, and we’ve left room for minor league promotions.

New Roster:

C- Raleigh, Ford
1B- Naylor, Okamoto
2B- Donovan, Rivas
SS- Crawford, Rivas
3B- Williamson, Okamoto
LF- Arozarena, Donovan, Canzone
CF- Rodriguez, Robles
RF- Carpenter, Robles, Canzone
DH- Okamoto, Carpenter

SP1- Woo
SP2- Gilbert
SP3- Kirby
SP4- Castillo
SP5- Miller

CL- Munoz
RHRP- Brash, Bazardo, Erceg, Hoppe
LHRP- Speier, Miller, Ortiz

Mariner mock revisions

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’ve just been digging around for draft intel and data and any kind of potential edge prior to Sunday’s first night of the MLB Draft, it occurred to me that I’ve missed one type of process point in my prior mocks.

The MLB has set up a rule wherein the players that attend the MLB Draft Combine and submit to the physical portion of the process will be guaranteed to be paid at least 75% of the slot bonus for whichever pick they’re chosen at. This somewhat limits MLB teams’ option to pay these players “underslot” deals. This is primarily beneficial for the senior college players that would otherwise have little negotiating power after using up their college eligibility. This was, specifically, relevant for two players in my most recent mock that I am going to adjust for here.

I’m also saying fuck it to acknowledging what I think Seattle will do. This is my taste and my structure of how best to hack this draft class. Seattle is potentially going to draft for “need” to an extent. Nothing that the MLB team needs right now is going to come from this draft, nor is anything in this draft going to overtake what is already in the minor league system. If we want players that will affect the 2026 roster; we need to trade prospects for major league players. This mock is simply, in my opinion, the best way to pick the best future MLB roster.

#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson

Seattle probably drafts one of the college LHP here, and that might be good for the eventual structure of their whole draft, but I just can’t get over how smooth and polished Carlson is with both the glove and the bat. He feels like one of the few guys at the top of this tepid draft top 10 that has true upside. He has so much body control…all we need is to see him get stronger and his pure current launch angle line drives will become homeruns.

Carlson is ranked #7 on the MLB board, so another part of the idea here is that we should sign him for under the $9.5mill bonus slot. I’ve budgeted him for $8mill.

#1.35cb – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes

Forbes might be the key to this whole draft. If he’s still on the board at #35; I struggle to see the Mariner pitching lab not latching on to him, even though they could start trying to take overslot high school players here. I think I may have reached a new understanding of how Seattle scouts pitching, and if I’m right…Forbes will be a guy they covet.

Forbes has college eligibility remaining, so he will still require a decent signing bonus. I’m giving him slightly below the slot of $2.75mill with a bonus of $2.5mill.

#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

Part of the reason I’m passing on the college LHP at #3 is because I think, longterm, Slawinski will be better than them. The only reason he isn’t a bigger deal right now is because of velo. But, also, what a contradiction that the #1 college LHP, Kade Anderson, has gotten there because of pitchability over velo, and yet, somehow, guys like Kruz Schoolcraft and Jack Bauer are ranked higher (#19 and #44) on the prep lefty board than Slawinski (#68) who has the better pitchability of those three. Whatever. Market inefficiency that I’m hoping to exploit.

Seattle signed Ryan Sloan away from his college commitment at pick #2.55 last year, and a bonus of $3mill. I’m doing the exact same figure for Slawinski at #57…$3mill. This equates to a top 32 pick bonus.

#3.91 – OF, Purvis HS, Jacob Parker

I started including this half of the Parker twins in my last mock, and I’m going to keep him here. I had tinkered with some prep righthanded power hitters; but I was struggling to justify the swing and miss on most of those specific players.

Parker, on the other hand, has one of the strongest overall profiles in my database for this prep class. He’s underrated in a lot of facets, but certainly his power is unquestioned. I’m offering him an overslot bonus of $1.22mill.

#4.122 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Taylor is one of the picks that I’ve had to adjust my drafting on. He is one of the guys that is a senior, but who is gonna be guaranteed at least 75% of the bonus for the slot where he’s picked. I’ve also moved him up a round because I think I had him underrated.

The slot for this pick is $617,200, so I’m giving him just over the 75% figure with a signing bonus of $465,000.

#5.152 – RHP, Baylor, Gabe Craig

In my previous mock, I had Seattle drafting Tennessee reliever Tanner Phillips who brings over a 100mph fastball and could move really fast to the show. Phillips is not a senior and would be guaranteed 75% of slot, so I just don’t know that I can afford him.

Craig is actually one of the highest-scoring pitchers in my entire 2025 college database. He is 24 years old and was not at the Draft Combine, so we can give him the full senior-sign treatment. Last year, Seattle used a couple of relievers (Hunter Cranton and Charlie Beilenson) to save bonus money in this same range of the draft. Those guys got $50k and $25k respectively. I’m not going that hard on Craig, and I can offer him $150k. This still saves Seattle ~$350k for other picks.

#6.182 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Smith is a longtime carryover from my previous mocks. He should be a true senior-sign player as a 22 year old who was not invited to the Combine.

As a lefthanded, power-hitting catcher that has good catch and throw tools; I’m super psyched to add him to the system.

#7.212 – RHP, Shawnee Mission HS, Michael Winter

Winter is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher coming out of Kansas with a really impressive present three-pitch mix. Similar to Slawinski; I love the pitchability more than the current velo. I think Seattle has struggled developing high school guys that come out of their senior year(s) with 97+ kind of velocity (Walter Ford comes to mind). I would like to try the opposite. Let’s draft guys that know how to pitch/spin and see if we can teach them to throw harder.

Winter has an unusual commitment to Dartmouth, but he did attend the Draft Combine, which may speak to an interest in signing if the price is right. I’m offering him $1.20mill, which correlates to approximately the #70 pick’s bonus.

#8.242 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a frequent returner to my mock drafts. I am adjusting his bonus to reflect his status as a guaranteed 75% senior from the Combine. I will give him $170k and work to come up with a program that can keep him healthy enough to continue to be a starter. If not…maybe he might thrive with a bullpen role.

#9.272 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Hawks is a return to the full-fledged senior-sign players. Another 22 year old, reliever-only, that was not at the Combine, we can sign him for basically whatever amount we want (and he agrees to). I’ve budgeted the very specific amount of $129,400.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

Depino falls, somewhat, victim to the MLB Draft rules that give very few options to a player of his age and the college he attended. He gets the smallest bonus of my top 10 rounds with only a $90k bonus.

#11.332 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

The 11th round is frequently one of the more interesting picks in a Mariner draftclass. It’s the first pick of the draft that doesn’t count towards their overall bonus pool. There is no penalty for not signing the player drafted here, while simultaneously, there is more talent still on the board here, obviously, than the 12th-20th rounds. You can draft an overslot guy here if you think you have savings, while not being overly concerned that this pick will affect the others.

Davis is a bit of a wildcard. He has never performed to a level that gives him a high floor. He’s a pretty pure upside pick. You’re hoping you can take his 97mph fastball from the left side, and his plus slider, and you can get him to throw more strikes with them. In 2025 in the SEC, Davis got hit around more than 2023 Mariner 12th round pick, Logan Evans. But Seattle saw enough in Evans to get him figured out to the point he has made it to the show in under two years. Evans was primarily a starter for Pitt, whereas Davis has only really pitched out of the bullpen in college, but Alton has currently made three starts in the MLB Draft League, so maybe there is an outside chance he continues doing that.

The bonus for all picks in rounds 11-20 is slotted for $150k. Teams can go over that figure, but all overages count toward their top 10 round pool.

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney

Most of the rest of this mock will match what I wrote last weekend. I’m not describing a specific bonus amount unless I expect the player to need overslot money.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

See previous mock.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

See previous mock.

#15.452 – RHP, Dax Dathe

In the days after my previous mock; a couple of things happened. I saw more video of Dax Dathe pitching in the MLB Draft League that looked pretty great, and my previous projected pick at #452, RHP Max Grubbs, announced that he is withdrawing his name from the draft to remain at Texas.

Cool. Easy one-for-one swap.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

See previous mock.

#17.512 – LHP, St Joseph, Colton Book

See previous mock.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

See previous mock.

#19.572 – LHP, Northeastern, Jordan Gottesman

After going away from the mock with the college LHP in the top pick; I made a choice to hunt for lefthanded college starters whenever I could. Gottesman doesn’t have some of the pitch metrics I think Seattle looks for, but he’s certainly had pretty strong results in the 2025 season. Across 83 innings he finished with a 2.27 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Maybe the performance staff can build up his strength and/or flexibility in order to tap into a bit more upside.

#20.602 – CF, UTSA, Mason Lytle

See previous mock.

Mariner seven day away mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I wasn’t planning on doing another mock this close to the previous one, but looking at my schedule next week; I’m not sure if/when I would be able to have another chance as my entire next weekend is booked, and day one of the draft is next Sunday. So here we are.

I have a few general Mariner draft thoughts at the top.

I’m still coming back to the idea that the Mariners’ drafting is overrated. They will, basically, come away with each draft class with two major league players. One from near the top and one from the top 10 rounds.

They draft for need, which is kind of a cardinal sin in a sport that takes years of player development.

They pay WAAAAY too much attention to the media rankings and projections on players, rather than forming their own scouting board.

They’re almost always a year behind on forming the best draft strategy for a particular class. So, the draft strategy that they should have in 2023 (due to strength of college/prep or pitching/hitting) they end up using in 2024. In other words, they’re reactionary but in delay.

I think the M’s fucked up pretty bad last year. The pick of Jurrangelo Cijntje was always questionable to me, and as it stands he’s sitting on a season statline of: 4.95 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 10.1 SO/9, 5.4 BB/9 in high-A Everett. Meanwhile, a guy like Trey Yesavage, who many analysts had as a top 15 pick pre-draft (including me), but ended up at #20 (five picks behind Cijntje) has already been promoted to AA, and has a season line of: 2.92 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 14.9 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9. And Yesavage signed for $700k less than Cijntje.

Also last year…Seattle drafts for need. They took 15 pitchers from 20 total draftpicks. And those pitchers have been a MASH unit of injuries:

3rd rounder Hunter Cranton is newly off the IL and has made 4 appearances.

7th rounder Brock Moore, 11th rounder Christian Little, and 18th rounder Matt Tiberia are all currently on 7-day IL.

16th rounder Wyatt Lunsford-Shankman is on the 60-day IL.

6th rounder Grant Knipp, 8th rounder Will Riley, and 17th rounder Harrison Kreiling are all on the full-season IL.

15th rounder Thomas Higgins is assigned to the Arizona Mariners, but has never pitched and is not on any IL that I could find. Not sure what is going on there.

19th rounder Andrew Walters never signed, choosing to go back to school at Miami.

So, out of 15 pitching draftpicks; 6 have never appeared for the team in the first 12 months of being in the organization.

And the hitting from the 2024 Draft, which was always an after-thought, has performed like an after-thought, with none of the five bats hitting over a .704 OPS for the year.

The only saving grace of the 2024 class is that 2nd rounder, Ryan Sloan, has really started to put things together in his last 4-5 starts, and now sits at a respectable 3.73 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 9.8 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9 for the year. And the two relievers that Seattle drafted in the early rounds as underslot, senior-signs, Hunter Cranton and Charlie Beilenson, have been pretty strong when they have pitched. If one of them pans out, plus Sloan, those are your two MLB players from 2024.

But considering the failings of the pitching from last year…considering the health failings of almost every starter on major league team…considering the lack of any pitching prospects in AA to AAA…I think Seattle finds itself again in need of drafting for need, and that means pitching.

I, personally, think the move that should be made in this specific draft class, where the college players of both position and pitcher are not strong, would be to try to draft high school players with upside. But Seattle won’t do that. Well, they will probably do it next year when the class will be completely different.

After listening to Scott Hunter’s press huddle from last week; I really think Seattle is already locked in to draft a college pitcher with their #3 overall pick. Hunter thinks the high school shortstop group, which looks to be a strength of the class, are players more likely to be drafted in the middle of the first round, rather than at the top. College bats are really not strong, and really don’t make sense with the makeup and ETA of Seattle’s farm system. It would make some sense to look for a fast-moving college player (of either bat or arm), but there’s only one college bat in the top 10 (Aiva Arquette), and is he really gonna move faster than Colt Emerson, Laz Montes, Harry Ford, Michael Arroyo, Tyler Locklear who should all be ready this year or next? This Seattle regime has never developed a bat that fast. And high school pitching is traditionally the riskiest pick for all of MLB early in the draft, and has also been the quadrant Seattle has had the least success in drafting/developing. I think it’s a college pitcher at #3.

Then, if we parse college pitching down a bit more…everybody sort of believes the three lefthanders: Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold are the three top arms in the class. I have some numbers that suggest Gage Wood could be argued to be in that mix, if not at the #1 spot if he had a bigger sample size from this year. I’d be pretty interested in seeing what Seattle could do in terms of signing Wood for underslot at #3 when he’s ranked more like #15 overall. Seattle won’t do this. There have been some rumblings of Seattle going underslot on Jojo Parker or Ike Irish, but they are ranked #9 and #11 respectively. That’s less of a reach than Wood looks to be.

Ultimately, I think Seattle will take the best remaining of the three LHP. And it sounds, more and more, like the LHP will be picked 1, 2, 3. So Seattle would be getting the third of three, unless they figure out that, with the biggest overall draft bonus pool in MLB, they could buy down the #1 player on their board by outbidding the Nats and Angels, who sit in front of them. Does Seattle realize they could do this? Does Seattle know how to do this? Does the guy Seattle wants the most also want to come to Seattle enough to not be picked at the ceremonial #1 pick??? Who knows.

And, really, there’s a chance the guy Seattle secretly prefers might naturally fall to #3.

When I did some last minute pitch-metric research yesterday; I actually came away thinking Kade Anderson is not the runaway, unanimous #1 LHP in this class. I was already spooked by the homerun-allowed rate that he gave up last year (1.2 HR per 9 vs 0.9 from Liam Doyle and 0.7 from Jamie Arnold). And there’s, at least, a yellow flag on Anderson that he did have Tommy John surgery in April 2022. I’m just not sold.

On paper…Liam Doyle should be the consensus #1. He’s got the better fastball of the trio, which in every other year would be the thing everyone latched onto. I suppose Anderson is getting the benefit of the most recent recency bias factor, since he pitched a complete game shutout in the second-to-last game in the entire college baseball season, with the win in game one of the College World Series finals. I think that is what is happening.

And Arnold doesn’t have any one thing that would put him above the other two. He’s got the more unusual mechanics of the three which lead to some truly outlier numbers. His release height is insane. None of these guys are very tall…Anderson listed 6’2″ but looks taller due to slender build…Doyle listed 6’2″ but I would be shocked if he broke 6’0″ at the Combine…and Arnold is listed 6’1″ which feels most accurate. But of those three, it’s Arnold that ends up getting furthest down the mound with a 6.7′ extension measurement. Anderson is only 6.2′ and Doyle was harder to find, so I have him as an unconfirmed 6.5′.

Anderson, in so many ways, doesn’t really feel like a Mariner guy, to me. This may never come to be tested as the consensus thought has now completely shifted to having the Nationals take Anderson at #1.1 over HS bat Ethan Holliday.

On paper, Arnold is easily the third of three from these LHP in terms of his 2025 season performance. But if I had to choose based on intangibles; I think Arnold is #1. Doyle is a bit of a psycho on the mound, which tends to lend itself more to a bullpen guy. Anderson is kind of the driest persona of the three, but that could be said of George Kirby, too, but Kirby has been a pretty solid pro.

Looking at the MLB big board (which is probably due for an update before next Sunday)…Anderson is ranked #2, Arnold is ranked #4, and Doyle is ranked #8. Jim Callis’ most recent mock draft from a couple days ago has them being picked: #1.1 Anderson, #1.2 Doyle, #1.8 Arnold. And this mock might be spoilers for how the MLB big board would re-rank in its next iteration.

If Arnold goes into the draft ranked at, or close to, #8 overall; I think he’s also a guy you potentially look to ask for an underslot deal if you draft him at #3. I’m not sold that Seattle does the underslot thing with their first pick. I would LOVE for them to, but historically they really haven’t done that. They will pay their first overall pick at roughly slot money, if not over, and then they look to save money elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. I don’t know if this is a Seattle philosophy when it comes to the draft, or if players aren’t interested in coming all the way to South Alaska for underslot money, or what, but it’s worth noting.

By process of elimination…

#1.3 – LHP, Florida State, Jamie Arnold

I’m pretty resigned to the idea that whoever this pick ends up being; it will be an underwhelming choice, with an underwhelming future career (see also: Emerson Hancock). I think that is what this draft will be. Which isn’t to say the pick will be a bust, or anything. I just expect the future value of this draft class will come from other picks/rounds.

On the positive spin side…how fun that our #1 pick comes from the same school, FSU, as our current #1 player, Cal Raleigh? Yay.

If we do take Arnold, and we do sign him for underslot (let’s say $1.5mill under), we may be able to make up for the underwhelming nature of his choice in the aggregate.

Bonus slot = $9,504,400. Signing amount = $8,000,000. Savings = $1,504,400.

#1.35cb – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes

There is some thought that, because we went underslot college arm at #3, that our next pick will be overslot prep player like we did in 2024 with Cijntje and Sloan. I am going to argue that that strategy is still in play, but it happens at pick #2.57. After all, Sloan was picked at #2.55 last year. This pick at #35 was not in the formula in 2024. We could, in theory, do another college pitcher (which I’ve already established is a “need” for the team) before switching up to the overslot prep player phase.

Forbes is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft. When I saw that Callis had him going #37 overall in his new mock; I was elated. I would love to snipe him at #35.

I’ve budgeted to sign him for $2,500,000 which is only $258k underslot for this pick.

#2.57 – SS, Don Bosco Prep, Nick Becker

Because of the strength of this prep shortstop class; I wanted to see what it would look like to try to buy down one of the many athletic guys that play there to the second round. I wanted it to be a guy with a fielding grade at the top of the class. There is only one 70-grade (Billy Carlson) in the entire class, and then there were two 60-grades (excluding college, leaving us Steele Hall and Lucas Franco), and then four more prep SS with 55-grades: Nick Becker, Daniel Pierce, Eli Willits, John Stuetzer.

Carlson, Hall, Willits, Pierce all have projection of being top 15 overall picks, so I don’t think you get them at #57. If I remember correctly, Sloan had pre-draft ranking of about #19 from which he “dropped” to #55. But he was also a prep righthanded pitcher, which is the riskiest demographic. A prep shortstop probably won’t fall as far.

I basically came away looking at Becker (ranked #51) and Franco (ranked #67) as the two plausible candidates that I also liked as players. Becker is a RHB, Franco is a LHB. Both are currently listed 6’3″+, with Becker being the stouter of the two. I’m leaning towards Becker due to his righthandedness. There are two things I want to address for the Seattle farm system: righthanded hitting and lefthanded pitching.

I’ve got Becker budgeted for a $2,750,000 bonus. This is down slightly from the $3,000,000 that they gave Sloan, but he was projected as a top 20 pick who got drafted at #55. Becker is the #51 player that they are drafting at #57. So, a slight degradation there should be agreeable. This is still $1.1mill over the slot for this pick.

#3.91 – OF, Purvis HS, Jacob Parker

Parker really came to my attention after I began studying his twin brother, Jojo Parker, who is expected to be picked higher of the two. The weird thing when I looked at both brothers: Jojo gets all the love for his hit tool while his power is pretty underrated, and Jacob gets all the love for his power while his hit tool is pretty underrated.

Take high school scoring and stat-tracking with however much relevance as you want, but Jacob has published season statline of: .525/.678/1.846, 45 BB, 13 SO, 17 HR. Which is bananas relative to, basically, every other high school player I looked at.

Many of the things that were relevant for Jojo and his connection to Seattle still apply to Jacob. Both played for the Mariners’ scout team in the East Coast Pro event last summer. Those were players chosen by Mariners’ scouts from states in the Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, etc area.

Jacob was the co-winner of the HS Homerun Derby at the 2024 MLB All-star Game. Though, Jacob actually had the higher total of 24 homeruns to Josiah Hartshorn’s 23 in the derby qualifier; which should have been the tie-breaker, in my opinion. In that contest, Parker beat out names like Ethan Holliday, Brady Ebel, and Xavier Neyens in the preliminary competition.

Jacob really kinda reminds me of a lefthanded Pete Alonso.

I’m projecting Parker to sign for $1,150,000; overslot this pick’s figure by $348k.

#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin

Seattle drafted a couple of underslot, college relievers with their 3rd and 5th round picks last year. I don’t know that Franklin is in the same category as he’s only recently 21 years old and a junior with eligibility remaining, but I do think the intent is similar. High octane, fast-moving bullpen arm.

I’m giving him the full slot amount for this pick of $617,200.

#5.152 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Seattle has been pretty strong at finding those hidden gems in draft classes and this year’s Bryan Woo memorial pick goes to Taylor. Not the biggest player, but Zane did touch 97.7mph at the recent MLB Draft Combine, and he’s got a big horizontal breaking secondary, and some of the best control in the class. This would be a strong pick.

Taylor is a senior, so I’m giving him an underslot $237,400 bonus.

#6.182 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Smith is arguably the best power-hitting catcher in this class, and he hits lefthanded which is a premium for catchers. The glove and arm aren’t too shabby, either. He’s a senior, so the bonus doesn’t need to be that high, but the pick probably needs to be higher than what the media is projecting.

This is another $237,400 bonus agreement.

#7.212 – RHP, Shawnee Mission HS, Michael Winter

I had Winter in my previous mock, but at a later round. As I’ve continued to study him; I think I want to lock him in sooner. I’m really liking this kid’s makeup, and drafting him this late should mitigate some of the inherent risk on prep righties.

With all of the underslot savings I have so far, and will create in the next few picks, I can offer Winter $1.170mill bonus before breaking into the taxable penalty range. If, for some reason, Seattle can’t come to agreement with Winter on an amount that gets him away from college commitment to Dartmouth; they will lose $276,200 from their overall bonus pool. But we’ve saved $894k from all other picks, which, if added to the value of any pick in rounds 11-20 of $150k, and we’ve got enough money to spend $1.044mill on an overslot guy in the second half of the draft.

#8.242 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola remains a holdover from my previous mocks. The injury concerns also remain, but so does the potential upside. I still like the cost/risk/upside with him should the M’s find a way to manage his health and workload, etc.

I’ve got his bonus planned for $187,400.

#9.272 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Hawks is another reliever-only pick that could move fast through the system. His 2025 went: 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 8 saves. He’s a senior, and I’ll sign him for $112,400 bonus.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

Depino isn’t the best defensive 3B in my study, but he might be the best bat at the spot. He hit .354/.505/1.235 with 21 doubles, 20 HR, and 21 SB this year.

Bonus will also be $112,400.

#11.332 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

Davis is a dangerous profile. And, really, it’s not one that usually pans out. Last year at Georgia he had an 8.14 ERA, 1.952 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9 and 5.1 BB/9. The good news is: he’s 6’5″ and throwing 98mph from the left side with a disgusting slider. And just a great athlete on the mound. If you can fix this…what a weapon he’d be out of the pen.

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney

Ankeney has that big, power firstbase profile you always hope to find. He’s 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

Fossum is the local product I highlighted in my last mock that has rebuilt himself after transferring out of UW, and starting to work with the crew at Driveline. He hit .382/.496/1.274 last year with 23 HR, and showed a decent arm from the outfield.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

Daniels was the 2B player I found and liked the best. He hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR and 75 RBI this year.

#15.452 – RHP, Texas, Max Grubbs

There are relievers with better strikeout numbers than Grubbs, but something about his stuff really popped for me when I watched him.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibodeaux was one of the best pure hitters in college last season. Only a 5’8″ build, but he hit .439/.544/1.391 with 18 HR and 24 SB. Could be a nice little leadoff man down the road.

#17.512 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book

I’ve seen some of the guys that scored particularly high in my annual pitching study, but who didn’t have overwhelmingly powerful stuff, still turn out to be solid performers in the minors. Book could/would be one of that profile. He’s 6’4″ with only about a 91mph fastball from the southpaw side, but he still managed a sub-1.000 WHIP and over 12 SO/9 for the year. At minimum, he should eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

Hynek is a flawed prospect with only a .230 average last year, but he hit 18 HR and has an above-average arm behind the plate. He’s worth a flyer this late.

#19.572 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines

I had Hines in my previous mock but I was self-admittedly not sure how they would have money to sign him away from his commitment to Alabama. The plan now is: if they don’t sign Michael Winter, the money budgeted for him moves down all the way to Hines here in the 19th round. If they do sign Winter; they probably let Hines walk. They did a version of this last year when they picked Miami closer Andrew Walters, also in the 19th round, and he didn’t sign.

Hines has one of the biggest statistical lines in the high school ranks this year. It goes: Jacob Parker, Jojo Parker, and then Hines, followed by Josh Hammond. Hines hit 20 HR this season. His batspeed is crazy. I have bigtime questions on his defensive position…he might, honestly, only be a DH at the end of the day… but if you can dream on Nelson Cruz with him, that’s still a valuable player.

#20.302 – OF, UTSA, Mason Lytle

Throughout this mock, I had to make sacrifices in order to get certain (every) player. One of the sacrifices I made repeatedly was to give up an outfielder for a different, probably more premium position. So at the end of this draft I really wanted to find a very solid, glove-forward, centerfield-capable, senior-sign type of player. Lytle checked a lot of boxes.

He’s 24 years old this past spring. He won the AAC Defensive Player of the Year. And he hit .366/.424/.984 with 10 HR, 22 doubles, 24 BB, 23 SO, and 17 SB on the year.

The need for the Mariners in this draft is college pitching…I have them picking nine of them. The best draft strategy in this draft is targeting high upside prep players…I have them picking four of them. I think this is a pretty strong breakdown and balance. Hopefully, Seattle can actually execute something similar.

Mariner mock: July

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to July, 2025. We are now less than two weeks away from the MLB Draft. Cliff’s notes summary: the Mariners have the biggest draft bonus pool in all of MLB to work with, they have the #3 overall pick, and it is a terrible year to have that high of a pick. The top end of this draft class is widely considered underwhelming, but the depth is thought to be good. The two players currently most associated with Seattle at pick #3, Oregon State SS Aiva Arquette and Florida State LHP Jamie Arnold, would probably not be drafted in the top 8-10 picks in most years.

Some people think that the Mariners NEED to draft a college player that could move quickly through the minors so as to help the MLB club sooner than later in this “competitive window” we’re in where we have so much young, controllable starting pitching. I disagree with that thought because the Mariners have one of the deepest farm systems in the league. Much of that depth projects to be ready to debut in MLB this year or next. A 2025 draftpick from this weak first round pool will not, likely, surpass the players that Seattle already has between A+ Everett and AAA Tacoma in twelve months.

So then…what does one do? I’ve talked for several weeks now that Seattle could, in a sense, trade down the #3 pick. How does one do that in a league that doesn’t allow trades of most draftpicks? You don’t sign the player you pick in a given round. That pick then becomes guaranteed to land one pick later in the next year’s draft. So, for example, Seattle’s #3 pick this year would become the #4 pick in 2026. A small sacrifice to make, but you might actually come out ahead in the aggregate as the 2026 draft class looks much stronger at the top of the draft than 2025.

Seattle will not do this. No MLB club ever really consciously does this. Mostly, that reasoning comes from the fact that the overwhelming largest chunk (about 55%) of Seattle’s total pool is tied to the #3 pick. If you don’t sign a player in that slot; you lose the corresponding bonus pool allotment. And bonus pool, more than anything, equals draft flexibility. The draft golden rule: He who has the bonus pool, makes the rules. Seattle could pre-negotiate with, basically, any player in the draft to the largest single signing bonus in the league. Which could, in theory, mean they could get the #1 player with the #3 pick (should they choose to spend the money that way).

They could also choose to spread the $9.5million designated for the #3 pick out across multiple picks/players, and therefore take advantage of the expected depth of this class. Because Seattle won’t use the “trade down” strategy, it becomes the best option, in my opinion, to spread the bonus pool out to multiple players.

Which players do you spread the bonus pool around to? In a year with mediocre college talent; you draft for upside from the ranks of the high school players. This is the best strategy for this specific draft class.

#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson

I had Carlson in my earlier mock draft and I’m coming back to him now as we’re closer to the draft. I did a pretty deep dive (the top 150 players on the board per MLB) simply logging the highest graded tools for all players. Baseball grading scales top out at an 80 grade for any given trait (hit, power, run, arm, defense, or any specific pitch type for pitchers).

In this class, there are zero 80-grade traits, there are two 75-grade traits (both are LHP fastballs), and ten players with a 70-grade trait. All of the 70-grade traits from pitchers are fastballs, and the majority of 70’s for position players are from run-tools. The big outlier on the grading scale is the defense grade for Billy Carlson. He is the only 70 score in the top 150 players (and probably the entire draft if I had checked).

I also came up with my own metric to put all position players on the same grading scale. When I did that, the #1 overall position player was Carlson. I don’t know why he isn’t ranked higher on most boards (he is #7 per MLB, but that should, arguably, be like #4). Well, I have a guess. It’s cause all media (and probably most teams) over-value present graded power. The “power tool” for baseball players is basically akin to the forty time for NFL players. It’s easiest to see and understand. But that doesn’t mean it’s best or right.

Carlson is the smoothest player in this whole class. Yes, that is how he moves on defense at short, which he rightly gets credit for, but it’s also his actions at the plate, which he doesn’t get proper credit for. This guy understands how his body works, and he knows how to use it. I think he has an innate understanding of launch angle. All that he needs is to get stronger. Which is probably one of the easier things to fix when talking about a guy that is only just out of high school.

Now, for the business side of things. Carlson is committed to Tennessee for college should he decide to, either, wholesale forego the draft, or not be able to negotiate an agreeable signing bonus in the next 12 days. MLB teams will know this information before the draft, but the greater public may not (some players announce these things beforehand, but many don’t).

Because Carlson is ranked the #7 player in the class; should he get drafted earlier than that; there may be an expectation that he take an underslot deal that is closer to the #7 pick value. The exact value of the Mariners’ #3 pick is $9,504,400. The exact value of pick #7 is $7,149,900. If Seattle takes one of the lower ranked players, and signs him for closer to $7,500,000; that player wins by getting more than they were projected to get, and the club wins because they have ~$2mill pocketed that can be offered to overslot players later in the draft.

Honestly, if Seattle is as good at scouting/drafting as their reputation suggests; they should be able to do this maneuver at a high success rate. You’re, in a sense, getting 2-4 upside players for the price of one.

If not Carlson; it would be pretty interesting to see Seattle go underslot on Arkansas RHP Gage Wood. He has a small sample size on his 2025 performance, and there is a medical question on his shoulder health, but when he has pitched this year; he has been arguably the best pitcher in the class. And it doesn’t appear that he will make it to #35 now.

#1.35 – CF, IMG Academy, Sean Gamble

The second part of going underslot at pick #3 is the behind-the-scenes negotiating that has to happen quickly before this next pick. Seattle can/should immediately start talking to the high school players they covet that are ranked, roughly, between #12-#30. Seattle needs to use their bonus pool superiority to “outbid” the teams that are actually on the clock in that range so that our target player tells those other clubs not to draft him because his signing figure is too high (but it’s not gonna be too high for Seattle).

The prep players in the 12-30 range are: SS Steele Hall, SS Daniel Pierce, 2B Kayson Cunningham, LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, 3B Gavin Fien, OF Slater de Brun, 3B Xavier Neyens, 3B Josh Hammond, OF Sean Gamble. My eye is drawn to the last three names on that list.

Xavier Neyens is the local product out of Mt Vernon, WA with bigtime power from the lefthand side.

Josh Hammond is one of the higher ranked pure hitters in my study. He has some possible two-way play ability, and hits/throws righthanded.

Sean Gamble has a great overall profile with high marks on all traits. He could be a second baseman, but more likely goes to centerfield. He’s got a pretty good eye hitting from the left side.

These guys have college commitments to respected college programs: Oregon State, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt, respectively. It could take a decent bonus to sign them away from college. The natural bonus slot for pick #35 is $2,758,300. If any of these three players were drafted at their matching big board value (they are ranked players #25, #26, #27); their signing bonus companion would be between $3.6mill down to $3.3mill. That is roughly the amount I would project to spend for overslot at pick #35.

I’m going with Gamble over the other two options for his position-versatility. He might be a second baseman, but he can definitely play centerfield. I’ve kind of got him projected like a Corbin Carroll type of guy.

#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

In a move similar to the drafting of Ryan Sloan at pick #55 last year; I’m taking my favorite prep lefthander in the 2nd round. I love the present pitchability he brings, and I’m looking to help him add velo. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, so I’m putting Bryce Miller on the phone with him to help upsell the M’s pitching lab. And then, of course, I go overslot the #57 pick that starts at $1,636,800 and I will push that number up to $2.75mill to get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Tulane, Michael Lombardi

I had a couple college arms that I had my eye on as potential targets at #35, but both have seemed to elevate out of reach of that pick, so I’m turning to the next tier. Lombardi has a similar profile to Patrick Forbes in that both were two-way players in college, but with a new freedom to concentrate on pitching; I think his game can be elevated.

He is only a junior at Tulane, so I will go slightly over the $851,800 slot to get him signed. I’m calling it a $900,000 bonus.

#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin

Franklin, like most of the arms coming out of Tennessee this year (and in recent years), has a bigtime arm. I counted at least six college pitchers that hit triple-digits this year, and Franklin was one. I like his overall profile a bit more than most of the others, and as a junior class guy; I will give him overslot money, as well. This pick is worth $617,200 and I’m penciling him in for $700,000. As a true reliever, this could, potentially, be a very fast-mover once in the system.

#5.152 – RHP, Zane Taylor

I think the second and third tiers of college pitching will go pretty fast in this draft, so I’m pushing the issue on the guys I like best from those tiers. Taylor is one of my favorite starters in this whole class, so I’m really just hoping that he lasts this long. He did recently turn 23 years old, so that may help him drop a bit, and then we can potentially save a bit of money on him as a senior signing.

I’ve allotted $237,400 to sign him.

#6.182 – C, Wright St, Boston Smith

I guess I worry that most of my favorite guys will be gone before I’ve got them listed in every mock, but that certainly applies to Boston Smith. He is one of my favorite guys in the entire draft. This is a lefty-hitting catcher with bigtime power and a pretty underrated catch/throw skillset behind the plate. He is a senior, so as long as he’s still on the board; I think we can go underslot at $237,400…identical to Zane Taylor.

#7.212 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a holdover from my previous mocks, and I just continue to juggle where I think I can pick him before the league does. Restating the backstory…this is an overaged guy with bigtime stuff and performance when he has played, but he’s barely played across four years in college. Huge injury redflags. But Seattle has taken chances on many guys like him before, including Bryan Woo and Teddy McGraw. If we have to move him to the bullpen to put less tax on his arm…so be it.

Bonus money here will be $187,400.

#8.242 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Another pure reliever; Hawks ticks a lot of boxes at 6’4″/225lbs after transferring from the Air Force Academy to Vanderbilt before this last year. A 1.60 ERA and 8 saves in 18 appearances in the SEC is nothing to sneeze at.

Another senior, the bonus for him is the same as Coppola: $187,400.

#9.272 – OF, Kent State, Jake Casey

Casey is the son of former MLB All-Star, Sean Casey, and he had a great year at Kent State hitting .356/.500/1.236 with 17 HR and 20 SB.

We’re still in senior-sign mode and Casey qualifies. That, and a small-school discount, means he gets $112,400.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

It’s not necessarily a strength of this draft class, but I think it’s a need in the Mariner farm system to add some more righthanded thump. Depino hit .354/.505/1.235 this year with 20 HR and 21 SB.

I’ve got his bonus the same as the 9th round: $112,400.

#11.332 – RHP, Michael Winter

Seattle has occasionally used their pick in the 11th round to draft an overslot player. Well…technically rounds 11-20 are not slotted. They all have the same max value of $150,000 with anything above that counting against their total bonus allowance for rounds 1-10.

Last year they gave RHP Christian Little $200,000 in the 11th round out of LSU. In 2019 they gave C Carter Bins $350,000 (this was when the max was $125,000 before counting towards bonus pool) out of Fresno State. And in 2018, they gave prep RHP Damon Casetta-Stubbs $325,000 also in the 11th round.

I especially like this strategy in 2025 when Seattle is starting with such a big bonus pool. That is why I drafted six consecutive senior signs in rounds 5-10, and why I noted such specific signing bonuses for them. I am planning to put away a total of $850,000 in bonus pool rounds 1-10, so that I can add that to the “slot” for pick #332 of $150,000, so that I can draft and sign my fourth (and final) high school player.

Every year there is a slew of high school players ranked as top 10 round players, but who go undrafted because they wanted a certain dollar figure to sign away from college. I want to have a full seven-figure amount to be able to offer them.

Who this player will be is very tough to forecast. This is going to be a guy that has “fallen” anywhere from three to eight entire rounds due to a price tag that isn’t publicly-known.

Michael Winter is ranked at exactly #200 by MLB’s big board. He is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher out of Kansas who only just turned 18 in June, and who has a college commitment to Dartmouth, in the Ivy League. That’s an interesting school to try to figure out. It could absolutely suggest that Winter has education as a priority. It could also suggest that he didn’t get many big offers from schools better known for their baseball programs.

If Winter has the grades/IQ for Dartmouth…maybe he’s smart enough to know Seattle has a strong pitching lab, and that could pull him away from school. Well, that and a big friggen check. The bonus here will be $1,000,000 (for Winter, or whichever prep player they can agree with).

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola, Beau Ankeney

As I mentioned earlier, I’m looking for power-hitting righthanded bats. Ankeney is 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

Fossum is a local product…born in Bellevue, went to HS at Eastside Catholic, and played three years at UW before transferring to Youngstown before this year. He’s also been known to get his work in at Driveline. And maybe that’s why Fossum’s bat took a huge jump this year allowing him to hit .382/.496/1.274 with 23 HR in 220 AB’s after only hitting 1 HR in 65 AB’s in his entire UW career.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

Daniels I found while trying to identify a second baseman that I liked, since my mock didn’t have one yet. A good-sized athlete at 6’0″/200lbs, Daniels hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR this year.

#15.452 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibs I had in my previous mock, and I’m keeping him. He was one of the highest-scoring players of all positions in my hitting analysis. A huge average guy at .439/.544/1.199, but he also showed good pop for his small stature of 5’8″/175lbs with 18 HR.

#16.482 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book

Book is not an eye test guy. His stuff is far from over-powering. But he really popped in my pitching metric, and so I’m trusting that a bit, while not going too crazy with a high pick on him. Listed 6’4″/210lbs, he had a 3.53 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 12.7 SO/9 on the year.

#17.512 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines

This is very much a flyer pick. Hines is a 6’3″/230lb outfielder with a commitment to Alabama. He’s got a pretty weak throwing arm, I don’t love the run-tool, he probably maxes out as a DH, but the dude hit like crazy last year to the tune of a .438 avg and a 1.508 WHIP. Plus, to the best I could find, he hit the most HR from the high school ranks in the country with 20 HR. I don’t know how much it would take to sign him, and I haven’t earmarked additional funds for him, but sometimes you make a pick and see what happens. Maybe we get the 11th round pick signed for less than $1mill. Maybe Seattle dips into the penalty range over their bonus allotment that means it gets taxed additionally (they could go up to $850k over slot before hitting second level of penalties). Maybe Hines just really wants to sign.

#18.542 – C, Colin Hynek

I, personally, like drafting two catchers every year, but Seattle has also seemed able to find a decent second catcher in the undrafted free agency period after the draft in multiple recent years.

Hynek has some work to do as a hitter after slashing .230/.396/.982 this year, but he did hit 18 HR while showing decent receiving skills.

#19.572 – LHP, Western Kentucky, Cal Higgins

Who doesn’t love a guy named Cal. A big boy at 6’5″/240lbs, Higgins had a 1.87 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, and 10.8 SO/9 out of the bullpen for the Hilltoppers this year. He’s recently committed to Texas in the transfer portal, so this might end up like Brian Walters was for Seattle in the 2024 Draft…an unsigned late round reliever.

#20.602 – 1B/3B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez

Velazquez has one of the biggest discrepancies between where he came in on my hitting metric, and where he lands on media draft boards…which equals value. He is a former Vanderbilt player, but never got much opportunity while there. After transferring to play for the Governors, Velazquez hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR this year.

I have zero expectations that Seattle does anything but draft chalk at the #3 pick. They’ve never been creative with their drafting on their first pick. They usually draft a player that is media-ranked in the range they pick. They usually pay him roughly slot, if not slightly over. They usually leave someone on the board that they would have been better off drafting.

Fortunately, they’ve had better success with later picks. If they can come away from this draft with two future MLB top 100 prospects from the picks between 35-212; it will be a successful draft. But still…it’d be nice to see them over-achieve that considering the opportunity that their luck leading up to this draft has afforded them.

Mariner Mock 3

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been looking at the Mariner farm system this week, and it seems to me, in theory, that the M’s early picks should be college hitters that can move fast through the minors to affect the major league lineup sooner, or high school pitchers that they can take their time to develop until the current ML rotation reaches the stage of being too expensive to maintain. I’m super hesitant to co-sign the high school pitching half because Seattle has never developed an in-house prep pitcher all the way to the majors. But my feelings have nothing to do with what Seattle will do.

Three recent national baseball mock drafts have differing general thoughts on what Seattle is targeting this year. One says they’re looking at prep pitching and prep hitting, one says they are looking at prep pitching and college pitching, and I think the third was simply naming names that included a majority of pitchers. The common denominator was pitching. So I’m kinda steering into those combined thoughts.

**The caveat to this is that there are about seven hitters that should go in the top 10 that, should one fall to 15, you break from the planned strategy.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This pick is threading the needle. There are a few HS arms that get top 20 consideration: LHP Kash Mayfield, RHP William Schmidt, RHP Ryan Sloan, but it’s really only Caminiti that I feel confident about. He’s a 6’2″/205lb southpaw that is young for the class as a reclassified 2025 17-year-old, who is already touching 98mph. There is some conversation about him playing two-ways as an outfielder, which I don’t care to try, but it does speak to the athleticism Cam brings. He’s got a four-pitch mix

The M’s don’t have any LHP in their current major league starting rotation, and their only LHP in their top 30 prospects is #29 Reid VanScoter, who has a pretty pedestrian 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. 7.33 SO/9, 2.44 SO/BB in AA ball, after being drafted in the 5th round in 2022. They need to take a bit more of a focus on adding some lefthanded pitching overall. I will attempt to do some of that for them in this mock.

#2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

I’ve had Collins in my mock before, but this time I’m moving him all the way up to the 2nd round. This reminds me a bit of 2022 when Seattle drafted a prep player in the 1st (Cole Young), and then came back to draft Tyler Locklear at #58 in the 2nd. It’s a very high-floor college bat to sort of protect you from the risk of the 1st round prep player. National media doesn’t have Collins ranked this high, but my numbers say he’s worth it.

Collins is a 6’3″/223lb lefthanded hitting first baseman for the Bulldogs. He has some experience as a catcher, including 2 games this year after 13 games at C in 2023, as well as a handful of appearances as a corner outfielder. I would draft him with the intention to return him back behind the dish on a more semi-permanent basis, until we find he isn’t capable as a receiver, knowing his future may veer more toward the 1B/DH side. I look at this like a lefty Pete Alonso, who was picked at #64 overall in 2016.

For the year, Collins has hit .360/.581/1.361 with 19 HR, 56 RBI, a great eye at the plate, and some pretty impressive bat-speed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

There has been some conversation recently about the pro’s and con’s of moving starting pitcher types, to the bullpen, and the possibility of moving them back to starting down the road. This came up after the news that Seattle has moved their fastest-moving pitching prospect, Logan Evans, from the AA rotation to their bullpen, with the open acknowledgment that this is with intention to fast-track Evans to the Show. Edwin Diaz came up in this conversation, Matt Brash came up, but I didn’t hear anyone talk about Garrett Crochet.

Crochet came out of college with 13 starts in 36 appearances for the Tennessee Volunteers. The White Sox moved him directly from the draft to the majors as a bullpen guy, and Crochet remained in the pen in 2021, missed all of 2022 injured, remained the bullpen in 2023, but has been exclusively a starting in Chicago in 2024. And he might end up the White Sox’ all star representative this year, he’s been that good.

So I’m not as worried as others about pigeon-holing a guy as one or the other, a starter or a reliever. I’m actively looking for prospects this draft that have experience with both, that we could fast-track to the bullpen, and then re-assess their role as our starting rotation gets expensive or injured or traded over a period of multiple years. Dohm is one of those guys.

Dohm is a 6’4″/210lb righty with 11 career starts in 40 appearances for the (other) Bulldogs. He has 6 starts in 8 appearances this year. He has missed some time due to some minor injuries, so his season line only accounts for 29.1 innings, but in that work he has posted a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9. If he had even a fraction of those numbers across, say, double the innings; we might be talking about a 1st round player. In shorter, relief outings; Dohm’s fastball has been up to 99mph. Secondary offerings include a slider he’s slowed down this year to give more sweep action, and added a tight curveball that I’m really liking in small sample. In interviews, it seems he’s still tinkering on a 4th offering…sometimes a change, sometimes a sinker…nothing concrete yet.

I would definitely give him the Logan Evans path after the draft: start or two in Arizona, three starts in Modesto, then skip the cold-weather Everett situation in September 2024 and April 2025 and move him straight to AA for 2025.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a holdover from previous mock(s), with a similar story to Dohm. He’s a 6’3″/185lb LHP with 4 starts, 15 relief appearances in 2024. He’s considered a redshirt freshman academically, but as a guy that will turn 21 this July; Zsak will be draft eligible. BUT…as a guy with a lot of college eligibility remaining; you might need to give him a pretty healthy signing bonus to get him out of that commitment. Hence: round 4.

The difference between Zsak and Dohm…I think Zsak is probably inevitably a reliever, whereas Dohm is probably a starter. But I’d give both the chance to start with the thought to convert to relief as per the needs of the big club.

#5.154 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a 6’3″/234lb, switch-hitting, 3B that I’ve come to find late in the process as he has impressed during the college post-season. He’s not a guy that my hitting metric flagged particularly high, so unlike many of my picks; he’s based more off the eye test. He’s a bit over-aged (but there is a lot of over-aged in this draft), he doesn’t walk very much, but he has some pretty elite exit velocity numbers. This is a player, and a draft range, where you can potentially save some signing bonus to re-direct elsewhere.

For the season, Mak has posted a .379/.442/1.178 slash with 20 HR, 76 RBI, 24 doubles in his first year with the Wolfpack, after four years at ECU.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’2″/200lb centerfielder that my hitting metric really loved. His season line goes: .401/.508/1.305 with 18 HR, 67 RBI, 20 doubles, and 11 stolen bases. And he plays a very solid CF. He looks similar to Mariner recent picks in rounds 6-10 from small schools like Brock Rodden, Hogan Windish, Bill Knight, Spencer Packard. Should give you a professional at-bat with some decent power, and solid defense. Another potential comp could be former Mariner Jake Fraley.

#7.213 – RHP, William & Mary, Nate Knowles

I had Knowles in my first mock draft of this season, then he kinda got squeezed out of my 2nd, and now he’s back for the 3rd. I’ve moved him up a few rounds because he’s a draft-eligible 20-year-old Junior at W&M that you may need to pay a bit more bonus money. I think he’s gonna be a guy that Seattle’s analytics group flag as a favorite. In terms of the basic stats, he has a 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9 across an even 80 innings this year. He kinda reminds me of bowling alley Bryce Miller.

#8.243 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

With Julio Rodriguez locked up to play centerfield for the next decade, and a whole farm system full of potential middle-infielders; Seattle really needs to find some prospect options at the corners of both infield and outfield. LMG is a big boy at 6’5″/237lbs that has played right field (and pitched) for the Governors this year. He hit .393/.533/1.432 with 30 HR, 94 RBI, and a sneaky 13×15 in SB.

#9.273 – 3B, Penn University, Wyatt Henseler

I hesitated slightly to take two third baseman in the top 10, but Seattle really doesn’t have much on the farm that is playing 3B. Tyler Locklear was drafted at 3rd, but quickly became an everyday 1B, and that is where he played in his MLB debut today. Ben Williamson plays a GREAT 3B, but he really doesn’t carry the power potential you’d like to see at a corner IF spot, and Seattle has already started tinkering with him at 2B. Then you have #27 prospect Luis Suisbel who plays about 47% at third, 27% first, 22% designated hitter at low A Modesto, but bat probably doesn’t carry him to the show.

Henseler actually reminds me of Williamson, but with more pop. He’s a solidly built 6’1″/215lb athlete hitting .360/.465/1.220 with 22 HR, 56 RBI and a dead-even walk-to-strikeout rate.

#10.303 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

In addition to hunting LHP this draft; I’m also willing to pay premium prices for bullpen velo. Gordon is a 6’5″/195lb closer for the Tigers touching 97mph presently with the frame to get that ticked up to triple digits in the near future. Season line goes: 4.46 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 11 saves in 21 appearances. He will only be 21 when his birthday hits this Friday, and so this may be a guy that needs somewhat overslot to sign away from his senior season.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

After paying premium prices for a few relief arms top 10; these next few rounds I’m going to be hunting value starting pitching. This is the range Seattle has really gone hard on pitching the last two years. This is where they found Logan Evans last year. This is where they drafted Troy Taylor and Tyler Cleveland in 2022.

The first of this group is the Beaver starter Kmatz. He’s 6’3″/210lbs with a fastball that currently only sits 92mph, but it plays up with his ability to locate it up, down, in, out. And then he has probably the best true curveball I’ve seen in this class. There’s a cutter, a change, and a slider, but none are shown enough to really get a feel for ranking order. On the year Kmatz is at a 3.29 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 9.7 SO/9, but as I’ve watched both of his postseason starts to this point; his strikeout rate is climbing as he has struck out or 4 or 5 of the first 6 batters in each game.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia is a pick I make while simply following the numbers. The results are above average, while most of the stuff is truly just average. He’s a 6’4″/218lb lefty with a 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, only 1.9 BB/9 while eating up a lot of innings (89.0) for the Cowboys. The upside here is probably Marco Gonzales, but in a situation where Marco is your fifth starter; you’d probably take that.

#13.393 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher is the righthanded version of Garcia. There’s something he’s doing that hitters are struggling with, and it leads to a line of a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 in 89.0 innings. He’s 6’3″/195lbs, and so there is some thought the frame could add some muscle, and with that maybe he adds some velocity.

#14.423 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger is sort of a bad body, 6’2″/220lb lefthanded outfielder, that is also one of the most disciplined hitters in the country with a strikeout rate somewhere in the 8th percentile. He’s hitting .381/.521/1.219 this year with 17 HR, 84 RBI. He also plays a solid leftfield, defensively. Not a sexy pick without a super high ceiling, but I like the high floor he brings.

#15.453 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

Wilson marks another shot at a lefthanded pitcher, but he brings a bit of a different profile. Not a starter, not a closer, Wilson is one of the top 2 or 3 lefthanded long-relievers in the country. He’s 6’3″/225lbs, coming up on his 24th birthday in December, and posted a 4.85 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, and 13.0 SO/9 in 27 relief appearances that netted 59.1 innings (an average of 2+ innings per appearance).

#16. 483 – RHP, Louisiana, JT Etheridge

Etheridge, with his big, high-cut 6’6″/225lb frame, kind of reminds me of former Mariner reliever Carter Capps. Or maybe if you squinted, and he performs absolutely unbelievably, you could pull a Jonathan Papelbon comp. The numbers here aren’t spectacular: 5.51 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9, but he’s also taking 14.3 SO/9 with a pretty good 96mph fastball and plus slider combination.

#17. 513 – SS, Drew Vogel

In one (or both) of my previous 2024 mocks; I was essentially forcing a shortstop pick. Because it’s generally good business to draft from the stereotypically best, most-athletic position group in the game. But Seattle is absolutely thick with shortstop prospects: Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Felnin Celesten, Dawel Joseph. The picks we make at shortstop now will more than likely be the second baseman of the future, or eventual trade bait. So here, I’m just looking to find a guy with decent present skills, and enough upside to take a flyer on.

Vogel is a 6’1″/195lb righty that has hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI and 16×17 in SB. He plays a pretty good defensive SS, as well.

#18. 543 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor has a similar story as Vogel, but at 1B. Good glove (arguably the best 1B defender I’ve found this class), good athlete (15×17 in SB), and enough hitting to possibly make it to the show. He’s listed 6’3″/215lbs and hitting .402/.484/1.270 from the left side, with 19 HR and 80 RBI.

#19. 573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is probably the second-best defensive catcher I’ve seen this year behind Grant Magill, but Schiavone is bringing a bit more hitting upside than Magill. I watched one of James Madison’s CWS regional games, and in that one game I got to see Schiavone hit a homerun, steal a base, and back-pick a runner off of SECOND base. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI and 9 SB this year. Oh, and his caught-stealing rate was north of 35%.

#20.603 – RHP, WKU, Mason Burns

Looking over the totality of the mock up to this point, I decided I wanted this last pick to be another pitcher to move the overall breakdown to 11 pitchers, 9 hitters. Burns is a 6’3″/215lb closer for the Hilltoppers, who (IIRC) led the country in saves with 15 in 28 appearances. Only a 4.00 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, and 10.0 hits allowed per 9; I’m including Burns for his respectable 13.0 SO/9, but even moreso because his personality kind of reminded me of Paul Sewald.