baseball

Mariner Mock 3

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been looking at the Mariner farm system this week, and it seems to me, in theory, that the M’s early picks should be college hitters that can move fast through the minors to affect the major league lineup sooner, or high school pitchers that they can take their time to develop until the current ML rotation reaches the stage of being too expensive to maintain. I’m super hesitant to co-sign the high school pitching half because Seattle has never developed an in-house prep pitcher all the way to the majors. But my feelings have nothing to do with what Seattle will do.

Three recent national baseball mock drafts have differing general thoughts on what Seattle is targeting this year. One says they’re looking at prep pitching and prep hitting, one says they are looking at prep pitching and college pitching, and I think the third was simply naming names that included a majority of pitchers. The common denominator was pitching. So I’m kinda steering into those combined thoughts.

**The caveat to this is that there are about seven hitters that should go in the top 10 that, should one fall to 15, you break from the planned strategy.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This pick is threading the needle. There are a few HS arms that get top 20 consideration: LHP Kash Mayfield, RHP William Schmidt, RHP Ryan Sloan, but it’s really only Caminiti that I feel confident about. He’s a 6’2″/205lb southpaw that is young for the class as a reclassified 2025 17-year-old, who is already touching 98mph. There is some conversation about him playing two-ways as an outfielder, which I don’t care to try, but it does speak to the athleticism Cam brings. He’s got a four-pitch mix

The M’s don’t have any LHP in their current major league starting rotation, and their only LHP in their top 30 prospects is #29 Reid VanScoter, who has a pretty pedestrian 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. 7.33 SO/9, 2.44 SO/BB in AA ball, after being drafted in the 5th round in 2022. They need to take a bit more of a focus on adding some lefthanded pitching overall. I will attempt to do some of that for them in this mock.

#2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

I’ve had Collins in my mock before, but this time I’m moving him all the way up to the 2nd round. This reminds me a bit of 2022 when Seattle drafted a prep player in the 1st (Cole Young), and then came back to draft Tyler Locklear at #58 in the 2nd. It’s a very high-floor college bat to sort of protect you from the risk of the 1st round prep player. National media doesn’t have Collins ranked this high, but my numbers say he’s worth it.

Collins is a 6’3″/223lb lefthanded hitting first baseman for the Bulldogs. He has some experience as a catcher, including 2 games this year after 13 games at C in 2023, as well as a handful of appearances as a corner outfielder. I would draft him with the intention to return him back behind the dish on a more semi-permanent basis, until we find he isn’t capable as a receiver, knowing his future may veer more toward the 1B/DH side. I look at this like a lefty Pete Alonso, who was picked at #64 overall in 2016.

For the year, Collins has hit .360/.581/1.361 with 19 HR, 56 RBI, a great eye at the plate, and some pretty impressive bat-speed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

There has been some conversation recently about the pro’s and con’s of moving starting pitcher types, to the bullpen, and the possibility of moving them back to starting down the road. This came up after the news that Seattle has moved their fastest-moving pitching prospect, Logan Evans, from the AA rotation to their bullpen, with the open acknowledgment that this is with intention to fast-track Evans to the Show. Edwin Diaz came up in this conversation, Matt Brash came up, but I didn’t hear anyone talk about Garrett Crochet.

Crochet came out of college with 13 starts in 36 appearances for the Tennessee Volunteers. The White Sox moved him directly from the draft to the majors as a bullpen guy, and Crochet remained in the pen in 2021, missed all of 2022 injured, remained the bullpen in 2023, but has been exclusively a starting in Chicago in 2024. And he might end up the White Sox’ all star representative this year, he’s been that good.

So I’m not as worried as others about pigeon-holing a guy as one or the other, a starter or a reliever. I’m actively looking for prospects this draft that have experience with both, that we could fast-track to the bullpen, and then re-assess their role as our starting rotation gets expensive or injured or traded over a period of multiple years. Dohm is one of those guys.

Dohm is a 6’4″/210lb righty with 11 career starts in 40 appearances for the (other) Bulldogs. He has 6 starts in 8 appearances this year. He has missed some time due to some minor injuries, so his season line only accounts for 29.1 innings, but in that work he has posted a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9. If he had even a fraction of those numbers across, say, double the innings; we might be talking about a 1st round player. In shorter, relief outings; Dohm’s fastball has been up to 99mph. Secondary offerings include a slider he’s slowed down this year to give more sweep action, and added a tight curveball that I’m really liking in small sample. In interviews, it seems he’s still tinkering on a 4th offering…sometimes a change, sometimes a sinker…nothing concrete yet.

I would definitely give him the Logan Evans path after the draft: start or two in Arizona, three starts in Modesto, then skip the cold-weather Everett situation in September 2024 and April 2025 and move him straight to AA for 2025.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a holdover from previous mock(s), with a similar story to Dohm. He’s a 6’3″/185lb LHP with 4 starts, 15 relief appearances in 2024. He’s considered a redshirt freshman academically, but as a guy that will turn 21 this July; Zsak will be draft eligible. BUT…as a guy with a lot of college eligibility remaining; you might need to give him a pretty healthy signing bonus to get him out of that commitment. Hence: round 4.

The difference between Zsak and Dohm…I think Zsak is probably inevitably a reliever, whereas Dohm is probably a starter. But I’d give both the chance to start with the thought to convert to relief as per the needs of the big club.

#5.154 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a 6’3″/234lb, switch-hitting, 3B that I’ve come to find late in the process as he has impressed during the college post-season. He’s not a guy that my hitting metric flagged particularly high, so unlike many of my picks; he’s based more off the eye test. He’s a bit over-aged (but there is a lot of over-aged in this draft), he doesn’t walk very much, but he has some pretty elite exit velocity numbers. This is a player, and a draft range, where you can potentially save some signing bonus to re-direct elsewhere.

For the season, Mak has posted a .379/.442/1.178 slash with 20 HR, 76 RBI, 24 doubles in his first year with the Wolfpack, after four years at ECU.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’2″/200lb centerfielder that my hitting metric really loved. His season line goes: .401/.508/1.305 with 18 HR, 67 RBI, 20 doubles, and 11 stolen bases. And he plays a very solid CF. He looks similar to Mariner recent picks in rounds 6-10 from small schools like Brock Rodden, Hogan Windish, Bill Knight, Spencer Packard. Should give you a professional at-bat with some decent power, and solid defense. Another potential comp could be former Mariner Jake Fraley.

#7.213 – RHP, William & Mary, Nate Knowles

I had Knowles in my first mock draft of this season, then he kinda got squeezed out of my 2nd, and now he’s back for the 3rd. I’ve moved him up a few rounds because he’s a draft-eligible 20-year-old Junior at W&M that you may need to pay a bit more bonus money. I think he’s gonna be a guy that Seattle’s analytics group flag as a favorite. In terms of the basic stats, he has a 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9 across an even 80 innings this year. He kinda reminds me of bowling alley Bryce Miller.

#8.243 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

With Julio Rodriguez locked up to play centerfield for the next decade, and a whole farm system full of potential middle-infielders; Seattle really needs to find some prospect options at the corners of both infield and outfield. LMG is a big boy at 6’5″/237lbs that has played right field (and pitched) for the Governors this year. He hit .393/.533/1.432 with 30 HR, 94 RBI, and a sneaky 13×15 in SB.

#9.273 – 3B, Penn University, Wyatt Henseler

I hesitated slightly to take two third baseman in the top 10, but Seattle really doesn’t have much on the farm that is playing 3B. Tyler Locklear was drafted at 3rd, but quickly became an everyday 1B, and that is where he played in his MLB debut today. Ben Williamson plays a GREAT 3B, but he really doesn’t carry the power potential you’d like to see at a corner IF spot, and Seattle has already started tinkering with him at 2B. Then you have #27 prospect Luis Suisbel who plays about 47% at third, 27% first, 22% designated hitter at low A Modesto, but bat probably doesn’t carry him to the show.

Henseler actually reminds me of Williamson, but with more pop. He’s a solidly built 6’1″/215lb athlete hitting .360/.465/1.220 with 22 HR, 56 RBI and a dead-even walk-to-strikeout rate.

#10.303 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

In addition to hunting LHP this draft; I’m also willing to pay premium prices for bullpen velo. Gordon is a 6’5″/195lb closer for the Tigers touching 97mph presently with the frame to get that ticked up to triple digits in the near future. Season line goes: 4.46 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 11 saves in 21 appearances. He will only be 21 when his birthday hits this Friday, and so this may be a guy that needs somewhat overslot to sign away from his senior season.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

After paying premium prices for a few relief arms top 10; these next few rounds I’m going to be hunting value starting pitching. This is the range Seattle has really gone hard on pitching the last two years. This is where they found Logan Evans last year. This is where they drafted Troy Taylor and Tyler Cleveland in 2022.

The first of this group is the Beaver starter Kmatz. He’s 6’3″/210lbs with a fastball that currently only sits 92mph, but it plays up with his ability to locate it up, down, in, out. And then he has probably the best true curveball I’ve seen in this class. There’s a cutter, a change, and a slider, but none are shown enough to really get a feel for ranking order. On the year Kmatz is at a 3.29 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 9.7 SO/9, but as I’ve watched both of his postseason starts to this point; his strikeout rate is climbing as he has struck out or 4 or 5 of the first 6 batters in each game.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia is a pick I make while simply following the numbers. The results are above average, while most of the stuff is truly just average. He’s a 6’4″/218lb lefty with a 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, only 1.9 BB/9 while eating up a lot of innings (89.0) for the Cowboys. The upside here is probably Marco Gonzales, but in a situation where Marco is your fifth starter; you’d probably take that.

#13.393 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher is the righthanded version of Garcia. There’s something he’s doing that hitters are struggling with, and it leads to a line of a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 in 89.0 innings. He’s 6’3″/195lbs, and so there is some thought the frame could add some muscle, and with that maybe he adds some velocity.

#14.423 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger is sort of a bad body, 6’2″/220lb lefthanded outfielder, that is also one of the most disciplined hitters in the country with a strikeout rate somewhere in the 8th percentile. He’s hitting .381/.521/1.219 this year with 17 HR, 84 RBI. He also plays a solid leftfield, defensively. Not a sexy pick without a super high ceiling, but I like the high floor he brings.

#15.453 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

Wilson marks another shot at a lefthanded pitcher, but he brings a bit of a different profile. Not a starter, not a closer, Wilson is one of the top 2 or 3 lefthanded long-relievers in the country. He’s 6’3″/225lbs, coming up on his 24th birthday in December, and posted a 4.85 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, and 13.0 SO/9 in 27 relief appearances that netted 59.1 innings (an average of 2+ innings per appearance).

#16. 483 – RHP, Louisiana, JT Etheridge

Etheridge, with his big, high-cut 6’6″/225lb frame, kind of reminds me of former Mariner reliever Carter Capps. Or maybe if you squinted, and he performs absolutely unbelievably, you could pull a Jonathan Papelbon comp. The numbers here aren’t spectacular: 5.51 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9, but he’s also taking 14.3 SO/9 with a pretty good 96mph fastball and plus slider combination.

#17. 513 – SS, Drew Vogel

In one (or both) of my previous 2024 mocks; I was essentially forcing a shortstop pick. Because it’s generally good business to draft from the stereotypically best, most-athletic position group in the game. But Seattle is absolutely thick with shortstop prospects: Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Felnin Celesten, Dawel Joseph. The picks we make at shortstop now will more than likely be the second baseman of the future, or eventual trade bait. So here, I’m just looking to find a guy with decent present skills, and enough upside to take a flyer on.

Vogel is a 6’1″/195lb righty that has hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI and 16×17 in SB. He plays a pretty good defensive SS, as well.

#18. 543 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor has a similar story as Vogel, but at 1B. Good glove (arguably the best 1B defender I’ve found this class), good athlete (15×17 in SB), and enough hitting to possibly make it to the show. He’s listed 6’3″/215lbs and hitting .402/.484/1.270 from the left side, with 19 HR and 80 RBI.

#19. 573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is probably the second-best defensive catcher I’ve seen this year behind Grant Magill, but Schiavone is bringing a bit more hitting upside than Magill. I watched one of James Madison’s CWS regional games, and in that one game I got to see Schiavone hit a homerun, steal a base, and back-pick a runner off of SECOND base. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI and 9 SB this year. Oh, and his caught-stealing rate was north of 35%.

#20.603 – RHP, WKU, Mason Burns

Looking over the totality of the mock up to this point, I decided I wanted this last pick to be another pitcher to move the overall breakdown to 11 pitchers, 9 hitters. Burns is a 6’3″/215lb closer for the Hilltoppers, who (IIRC) led the country in saves with 15 in 28 appearances. Only a 4.00 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, and 10.0 hits allowed per 9; I’m including Burns for his respectable 13.0 SO/9, but even moreso because his personality kind of reminded me of Paul Sewald.

Mariner mock 2

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The Mariners changed their draft strategy maybe three years ago, their new process is failing in front of us, and nobody is really talking about it. And, no, I don’t mean the change they made where they started drafting prep hitters in the early rounds starting in 2021.

Seattle changed the way they evaluate pitching around that same time, and we’re facing a dearth of MLB-caliber pitching prospects across the farm system. Seattle holds 4 members of the MLB top 100 prospects, and all four are position players. Seattle’s top 30 team prospects are position players from #1-#11, and only six pitchers in their top 20. Two of the pitchers in the M’s top six pitching prospects (Teddy McGraw and Cole Phillips) have never thrown a pitch at the professional level due to injury, and a third (Taylor Dollard) has been sidelined with injury since April 2023. This means that there aren’t many reinforcements available in AAA, and very little in AA.

Taking a look at the Tacoma Rainiers roster…they have zero pitching “prospects” (with Emerson Hancock graduated from rookie status), and their starting rotation is comprised of 27 year old Jhonathan Diaz, 36 year old Casey Lawrence, 36 year old Dallas Keuchel, 35 year old Michael Mariot, 26 year old Levi Stoudt, and the recently demoted 25 year old Hancock.

The AA Arkansas Travelers roster holds #19 prospect Logan Evans (huge buzz and a 1.60 ERA over 39.1 innings), #21 Jimmy Joyce (recently returned from injury and holding an 8.31 ERA in 2 starts for Arkansas), #27 reliever Troy Taylor (only 3.0 IP after recent promotion from Everett), and #30 Reid VanScoter (3.70 ERA across 8 starts). It’s hard for me to see Joyce or VanScoter as anything much more than a Levi Stoudt level talent.

I don’t quite understand the change Seattle made in how they evaluate pitching prospects for the draft. My sense is that their old method targeted guys that had innate ability to “control the zone”. Guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard came out of college averaging 2.0, 0.6, 1.1, 1.3 walks per 9 innings respectively. In 2021, Bryce Miller came out averaging 5.9 BB/9. In 2023, their top pitching draftpick Teddy McGraw had 4.84 BB/9, 6th-rounder Brody Hopkins had 7.33 BB/9, 11th-rounder Brandyn Garcia 4.74 BB/9, and 12th-rounder Logan Evans was 3.49 BB/9.

So, they’ve stopped caring about control. What they’ve replaced control with; I’m not sure. Velo? Spin rate? IVB? Some combo of a couple things? Probably. Whatever it is; it makes it very difficult to replicate in home mock drafting.

In addition to the lack of pitching talent at the high levels of the minors; you should note that NONE of the guys I’ve mentioned so far were drafted by Seattle out of high school. The Dipoto regime has NEVER developed a pitcher from high school up to the majors across 8 draft cycles.

Their success rate on high school drafted position players isn’t much better. This is why, when I see Jim Callis’ recent MLB mock draft from a few days ago that has Seattle drafting prep shortstop Theo Gallen and includes a note that the M’s “also are kicking the tires on the top prep arms as well,” it kinda scares me. In no way, shape, or form, should Seattle be trusted to evaluate, draft, and develop a pitcher directly out of high school. Do some self-scouting guys. You suck at this.

I should also point out that Callis in 2023 mock drafts did, correctly, put Seattle on drafting Colt Emerson, and also projected they would draft three prep players with all of their three first round picks last year.

I don’t think I objected to that process last year as it was a very good draft for prep players. The eventual draft results in 2023 had 13 high school players drafted top 30 overall. This 2024 class the major outlets have zero prep players in the top 8, only 3 in the top 15 (where Seattle would pick), and only 9 projected in the top 30.

The other thing about high school players in 2024 that nobody is talking about; is the still-developing way NIL rights will affect the signability of prep guys. There has ALWAYS been a need for teams to go over-slot on high school draftees, but will those figures increase after another year of college baseball teams learning how to manipulate the NIL system to get their recruits to campus? If a top prospect can get $1mill in NIL going to campus; is he going to want $5mill to sign with MLB team directly out of HS? It’s a slippery slope.

Ultimately, although Callis’ intel may be correct on Seattle’s intentions; they may not be able to execute them due to lack of inventory, and cost to sign. They may be forced to pivot to drafting a college player. We should all be okay with this as this is a strong college class.

The top high school player this year is SS Konnor Griffin, who is an absolute monster at 6’4″/215lbs. There’s no way he falls to #15. The next two prep players on big boards are SS Bryce Rainer and RHP William Schmidt…neither of whom I like. The next guy up is LHP Cam Caminiti. I really like Cam, and Callis also noted in his mock that he “might not make it further than the Mariners at #15.” So there would appear to be interest on Seattle’s side, but insert previous caveat on the M’s inability to develop prep pitching.

Callis has Seattle taking a slight reach on #26 prospect, Texas prep MIF Theo Gillen, which we have to take seriously. I don’t love Gillen. There’s a neg on him that he doesn’t have the arm to stick at SS, and likely ends up at 2B. I also kinda don’t love the intangibles make-up on him. I would prefer to offer up SS Wyatt Sanford. He’s also a reach as the #35 player on the MLB board, but Sanford is one of the better defenders in the class, who should definitely stick at SS.

Just as a quick aside…is Seattle really going to draft a lefty-hitting high school shortstop for a third consecutive year?? In addition to the two highly rewarded international signees of the last two years: Felnin Celesten and Dawel Joseph. All of these acquisitions mean that four of Seattle’s top seven prospects are shortstops, and seven of their top sixteen players have some SS experience. That strategy works when drafting pitchers across a 3-4 year stretch, as you’re gonna need five starters in a rotation. But you can only start one shortstop. At some point, you’re moving like 3-4 of these guys to other positions or using them as trade bait. I don’t know.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This is not what I would do. I would draft the best college pitcher still available on my board because the M’s CAN develop that. This is a compromise of the intel that Jim Callis mentioned, filtered through the logic that Seattle is actually pretty well stocked-up on shortstop prospects, plus the knowledge that Seattle’s major league rotation is pretty well set until Luis Castillo’s contract gets closer to expiring in like 2027, and so the Mariners can afford to take a slower-developing arm. Plus, if one of the top 3-4 high school players were to fall to #15, it is more likely to be a pitcher, as MLB knows prep pitching is far more temperamental than prep hitting. The first prep arm drafted last year came off at #8 overall, and the second HS pitcher didn’t come off until #33 overall.

Caminiti is actually one of the younger players in this draft, as he won’t turn 18 until August, and re-classified from 2025 class to this year. This could also suggest a higher willingness to sign, rather than go to his college commitment at LSU. He’s trying to get SOMEWHERE a year earlier than he was supposed to.

He’s currently 6’2″/205 and touching 97mph from the southpaw side. He’s got a very good slider, and third and fourth offerings of change and curve (no order). In terms of high school pitcher, I feel a little better that this is a safer pick than most. Seattle might still fuck it up, but in my opinion Cam would be the best attempt at the worst strategy.

#2.55 – SS, Boswell HS, Sawyer Farr

My original plan was to take the best college pitcher available in the 1st, then to draft a prep shortstop in the 2nd…while researching for that strategy I found Sawyer, and I really like the profile. He’s a 6’5″/180lb shortstop that can switch-hit, and I love the intangibles. The fundamentals he has for all five tools are fantastic. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, and I think that’s a legit concern. Bonus slot for this pick is $1,641,900, and if Seattle can save enough in other rounds to bump that up to $2mill; I think they can get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi St, Nate Dohm

In my previous mock I had Seattle taking Dohm in the 4th round. I was a little concerned about Dohm’s health, as it had been some time since he had pitched, but as of today Dohm made a couple appearances for the Bulldogs on May 14th and again May 18th out of the bullpen. If he had pitched more innings this year at even a fraction of the efficacy he’s had in his limited work; we’d potentially be talking about a 1st round guy. So I’m glad to bump him up from the 4th round to the 3rd.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

This is an interesting one. I think Seattle should take some picks this year simply to target potential fast-moving bullpen arms. The 4th round may be high to start doing that, but Zsak is technically a redshirt freshman who will turn 21 (and therefore draft-eligible) on July 12th. So he’s got a TON of eligibility remaining, and it may take a decent bonus to sign him. Media outlets have him ranked as more of an 11th-15th round player on day 3 of the draft, so you could take a few different strategies to accomplish that. You could take him somewhere late on day 2 (rounds 8-10) and try to give him, say, $200k overslot money, or you could take him in an earlier round, give him $100k underslot for that round, but it still ends up more money than he’d get on day 3.

Performance-wise, Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb lefty with 4 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2024, posting a 4.11 ERA, 10.0 SO/9 and a 1.200 WHIP. You could try to take some time with him and develop him to start, but I think he might be MLB-ready by 2026 if you let him relieve.

#5.154 – RHP, Arkansas, Brady Tygart

Tygart is one of a few picks in this mock where I’m consciously going away from my own pitching metric, that no longer aligns with the M’s draft tendencies, and trying to latch onto something that Seattle IS using to identify their pitching picks. It’s a pretty big guess, though.

Tygart is a 6’2″/215lb starter this year for the Razorbacks. In 2022 he pitched as the team’s closer where some of his pitching stats actually looked better, including his SO/9 (12.2 as a closer in 2022, down to 10.5 as a starter in 2024). I think you keep him in the rotation in the immediate future, but you know the bullpen is also an option.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’1″/210lb, righty swinging, centerfielder hitting .413/.518/1.328 with 17 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 54 games. He checks a lot of boxes across all toolsets.

#7.213 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in the country this year, and even using a higher pick on him would be justified. I’m slotting him here as a senior-sign candidate. He’s 6’3″/236lbs, currently playing 1B but with some experience catching and playing outfield for Georgia, but the bat plays wherever. Hitting .361/.586/1.390 with 18 HR, 52 RBI and 50 BB; Collins is the Bulldog leadoff man setting the table ahead of phenom Charlie Condon. I’m not sure why Georgia has gone so far away from letting him catch, but the idea that there’s a power-hitting, lefthanded catcher is part of this profile is super intriguing for me.

#8.243 – 3B, Penn, Wyatt Henseler

Henseler is one of my favorite players in this class. He’s 6’1″/210lb righty that plays a great defensive third base. He’s been hitting .367/.475/1.259 with 21 HR, 51 RBI in 45 games in the Ivy League this year. He has a transfer commit to move on to Texas A&M for a graduate year, but he’s going to be 23 years old in August. As a senior, you could try to underslot him, but in this case I wouldn’t. Just give him exactly the slot of $212,900 for this pick.

#9.273 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

Vogel is another senior player. Actually, it’s worth mentioning that this draft class has an insane number of senior options. Backlog of Covid redshirts? Guys getting NIL money and deciding to stay in school? Not sure. That’s potentially a benefit for MLB teams looking for discounts for their bonus pool, but it may hurt them if they try to draft guys from the junior, or even redshirt junior, class(es).

Anyways, Vogel is 6’2″/195lbs, hits righthanded, plays a solid shortstop, and is hitting .339/.451/1.130 with 20 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB in 55 games.

#10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green

Miller-Green is an absolute unit of a guy at 6’5″/226lbs. He’s been a two-way player for Austin Peay, but his future is certainly with the bat where he’s primarily played RF. He’s hitting .395/.530/1.428 with 29 HR and 93 RBI in 54 games. Insane numbers. Even writing those out now makes me think this is too late to be drafting him. But he will be 24 in September, so it’s a calculated risk. This guy is an exit velocity monster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon St, Jacob Kmatz

Kmatz is another guy I wouldn’t have mocked to Seattle three-ish years ago. I THINK he might be Seattle’s kind of guy currently, though. He’s 6’3″/210lbs, posting 3.48 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9 in 14 starts. It’s not a splashy line, but it fits with the M’s recent profile of early day three pitchers.

#12.363 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

Gordon is another of the similar profile of part-time starter, fuller-time reliever that I’ve taken a few times this mock. He’s 6’5″/195lbs with a pedestrian 5.10 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9 and 9 saves in 5 starts and 12 relief appearances. His fastball is a present 97mph, and with the frame it’s easy to dream on 100mph.

#13.393 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

It’s a pointed intent of mine to force more lefthanded pitching talent into the Mariner system. Wilson marks a slightly different profile of lefty. He has 25 appearances this year, all of them out of the bullpen, but he has zero saves. Those 25 appearances have added up to 57.0 innings, which means that his average appearance lasts 2.1 innings. He’s more of the long-relief, middle-innings type who has a 1.175 WHIP, and 13.3 SO/9.

#14.423 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia

Again, another stab at some lefthanded pitching. Garcia is more of the “crafty lefty” profile, but he’s 6’4″/218lbs with a 3.61 ERA,1.112 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9 and only 2.1 BB/9 in 14 starts this year. If he can add some velo, I could see him be a very solid SP3 in time. Well worth the value this late as a guy turning 23 on Wednesday.

#15.453 – RHP, Western Kentucky, Mason Burns

I had originally sketched in a position player to this pick, but after looking at the entirety of all 20 rounds; I felt like I needed another pitcher. The easiest guy to cut was a utililty infielder.

I literally just wanted to find some true closer options. I liked Oregon State’s Bridger Holmes, but he was off the board. I liked the lefty Ben Abeldt out of TCU, but he just had slightly lesser metric scores than Burns.

Mason is leading the country in saves, and at 6’3″/210lbs he mixes a 96mph fastball with a solid slider to post 4.18 ERA, 12.8 SO/9, and 15 saves in 27 appearances. Seems to be a bit of a fun character, too.

#16.483 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor is another corner infielder that has come through the Ivy League en route to Northeastern where he’s hitting .405/.485/1.287 with 19 HR, a staggering 80 RBI, 14 SB in 53 games this year. I’d expect him to be drafted much earlier than this if he wasn’t turning 24 in July. Oh, and he also might be the best defensive 1B in this class.

#17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

In my previous mock for this year; I was kind of forcing a catcher pick much earlier in order to get a decent bat out of him, but after deeper consideration, I think I’d prefer to get a really good receiver and basesteal eliminator, and hope on the bat side.

Schiavone is a 6’2″/185lb catcher with a .278/.391/1.030 slash with 17 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB and a season .990 fielding percentage, and who has caught 38% of would-be basestealers this year.

#18.543 – OF, Morehead St, Ryley Preece

Preece is a holdover from multiple mocks of mine going back to last year. I like the profile. He’s a switch-hitter with a .353/.491/1.157 line, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 19 SB this year. He plays a very solid outfield, as well.

#19.573 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll

Another senior year player, Driscoll is a 6’5″/225lb starter with a 3.26 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, only 9.0 SO/9 but also only 1.8 BB/9 across 66.1 innings. Not a ton of upside, but I think he could eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#20.603 – C, Indiana St, Grant Magill

Magill is, arguably, the best defensive catcher in the country. I believe he won the college Gold Glove last year. He’s got a .992 season fielding percentage, and has caught 40% of basestealers this year. The bat is really not great…one of the worst in my database of about 400 players…at .285/.332/.757 with 6 HR, 42 RBI in 49 games. (It’s not a terrible bat, just the low end of my metric looking for projectable hitters.) I’d really just like to have Magill working with the system’s young pitchers.