baseball

Mariners offseason plan

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been spending some time this weekend thinking about what the Mariners could do this offseason, after signing Josh Naylor, to improve upon their 2025 season. What combination best fills the holes of free agency while staying within the structure of budget that is certainly at play from ownership?

This is what I came up with.

I’m sure this won’t be the most popular structure, and I’m fairly certain the front office has a plan that will be perceived more popular, but this is my pretty objective thought.

#1 – Sign one of the posted Japanese players.

It’s been a minute since Seattle has had a substantial Japanese presence on the roster, but I think there is value, both on the field and off, to be found there.

I’ve targeted 3B/1B Kazuma Okamoto as the Japanese signing I would pursue. Yes, he is the older of the two big bats, but the power is not that much less, and I think the pitch recognition is so much better and should travel. I think many people think Okamoto is JUST a first baseman, but I like his tape at third, where he won Gold Gloves as recently as 2022, I believe, to be adequate to replace Eugenio Saurez.

As far as Geno…it’s hard to say goodbye to him. I think he brought an emotional character to the clubhouse that was important in both of his stints here. If Geno would be willing to take the same money as I’m proposing Kazuma takes; I would probably just keep the continuity with Geno.

Speaking of the contract…most industry writers project Okamoto gets 3-4 years, and then it’s a pretty wide range of money from, like, $12 to $16mill AAV. I’ve budgeted him at three years, $40.5 million, or $13.5mill AAV.

#2 – Trader Jerry season.

We may NEED to see some trades this winter. Having spent on Naylor, and with the club expected to spend decently on someone else in free agency, we’re going to need to augment the roster with some younger, cheaper, but still MLB-proven, players. We have the farm system that should support making some of these moves.

Trade #1: In my model, I found that if Jorge Polanco gets the contract he’s projected to get; it will be one of the better values in all of MLB. If Seattle does go that route…hey, cool. It’s probably not a bad move. But I, personally, just worry about extending too many of these players that are aging out of their prime.

So, my first trade would be to send the #75 prospect in all of MLB, and the #7 prospect on the M’s top 30, OF Jonny Farmelo, plus our #18 prospect, RHP Michael Morales, to the St Louis Cardinals for IF/OF Brendan Donavan.

The Cardinals have the #5 prospect in all of baseball, JJ Weatherholt, set to debut in 2026, so they’re going to need a position for him to play, and so maybe they make Donovan available.

Donovan has position flexibility, but he spent 82 of his 97 starts last year at second base, and that will be where I pencil him in for Seattle in 2026.

In terms of the return going to the Cards…honestly, this is my most important trade, so I give them their first choice of any of our #6-#8 prospects, Michael Arroyo, Farmelo, or Jurrangelo Cijntje. But when I looked at their farm system; it just felt like they could use outfield help more than 2B or pitching.

Donovan is an Arbitration-2 player about to turn 29 in January, with club control through 2027, and he should cost roughly $5.75mill this year. Last year he hit .287/.353/.775 with 10 HR, 50 RBI in 118 games.

Trade #2: In order to replace some of the power lost by Polanco not being re-signed; I’m going to try to add some in the outfield. I am sending the Detroit Tigers #8 prospect SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje plus OF/IF Luke Raley in order to acquire OF Kerry Carpenter.

Carpenter destroyed Seattle in the postseason, so Mariner fans may have some mixed emotions about this one, but Carpenter is a 28 y/o who hit 26 HR in 130 games last year, with a slash line of .252/.291/.788, but a career OBP of .322, so we’re gonna try to straighten some of that back out.

Raley ends up the short straw between he and Dom Canzone in terms of who we would prefer to retain as a bench lefty outfielder. His ability to backup 1B is also now covered by Okamoto. There just really isn’t space for him, and he’s also the more expensive of he and Canzone, as he was projected to make $1.75mill next year. That’s not nothing when we’re pushing as hard as we can up against the “salary cap”.

Carpenter has three years of club control remaining, and he should cost about $3.5mill this year depending on arbitration. He may end up in true platoon with Victor Robles in right field, as Carpenter hit righties at a .257 clip while Robles hit .213 against them, and then Robles hit lefties .289 while Carpenter hit .217 off them.

I’m sure a lot of fans, and probably the front office, bristle at the idea of trading away Cijntje, but we’re holding onto Ryan Sloan and 2025 first rounder Kade Anderson, who probably fit better in the timeline of our pitching development/cost progression anyways. I felt like we NEEDED to part with someone quality to get an MLB player with “now” ability and cheap club control. That looked like Cijntje.

Trade #3: I’ve got a couple of smaller trades that fans may not immediately recognize, but trust me…I didn’t so much fucking homework on these. I’m sending 2B Cole Young to the Kansas City Royals for righthanded reliever Lucas Erceg.

Erceg kind of ends up a cap casualty for the Royals who have probably a tighter budget than Seattle, and will have multiple arbitration raises to work through. Erceg is a bit older as he will turn 31 early in the 2026 season, but he has club control through 2029, and should cost about $2.00mill this year. It’s not that different from when Seattle got ahold of Paul Sewald in his age 31 season.

Erceg has been a very solid reliever for the last two years between Oakland and Kansas City posting sub-4.00 ERA’s including a 2.64 mark last year. His strikeouts were down a bit in 2025, but his velo and pitch metrics are still very strong.

Young becomes somewhat expendable with Donovan acquired and Colt Emerson nipping at his heels in AAA already. Emerson may, eventually, be the replacement for JP Crawford at SS in 2027, but he probably has to start somewhere else when he debuts in 2026. In a scenario where Emerson plays 2B; Donovan could play LF with Randy Arozarena benched vs RHP. The Royals like this trade as they can either make Jonathan India available in trade immediately, or slot Young in as his replacement in 2027 and give him another year to develop.

Trade #4: This is the smallest, but perhaps sneakiest, trade of all. I’m sending #12 prospect OF Tai Peete to the San Francisco Giants for lefthanded reliever Erik Miller.

Miller is a big boy at 6’5″/268lbs and he posted a 1.50 ERA, but pedestrian 6.0 BB/9 and 6.6 SO/9 numbers across 36 appearances and 30.0 innings for the Giants in 2025. His season ended early when he was placed on the IL in early July with elbow soreness from which he never came back. Obviously, this trade would be contingent on a physical, but I like the “buy-low” nature here in order to acquire a lefty that touches 99mph with run. And he’s only 28 in February with club control through 2029 and should only cost $820k this year.

Even if the injury is still not fully resolved; there is enough meat on the bone that this could be a useful trade across the life of the deal. This could end up sort of resembling when Seattle acquired Andres Munoz while he was in injury recovery for the Padres. We got Munoz on August 30, 2020 after he didn’t appear at all for SD that season, and he didn’t pitch for Seattle until October 3rd, 2021.

After all of these transactions, the Mariner rotation remains fully intact. The defense should be better with Donovan > Polanco, and potentially Ben Williamson starting at 3B with Okamoto at DH. Power rates may be down a bit, but contact rates should be better (really, we are mistakenly taking credit for Saurez’ 49 homeruns, when in fact he only hit 13 for SEA). The farm system maintained our top 6 prospects, along with keeping guys like SS Felnin Celesten, C Luke Stevenson, OF Yorger Bautista, SS Nick Becker from the top 15. And we didn’t blow our remaining (expected) $23mill budget surplus on one guy. We’ve addressed 2B, 3B, OF, RHP, and LHP. We’ve got relatively younger without becoming inexperienced, and we’ve left room for minor league promotions.

New Roster:

C- Raleigh, Ford
1B- Naylor, Okamoto
2B- Donovan, Rivas
SS- Crawford, Rivas
3B- Williamson, Okamoto
LF- Arozarena, Donovan, Canzone
CF- Rodriguez, Robles
RF- Carpenter, Robles, Canzone
DH- Okamoto, Carpenter

SP1- Woo
SP2- Gilbert
SP3- Kirby
SP4- Castillo
SP5- Miller

CL- Munoz
RHRP- Brash, Bazardo, Erceg, Hoppe
LHRP- Speier, Miller, Ortiz

Mariner mock revisions

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’ve just been digging around for draft intel and data and any kind of potential edge prior to Sunday’s first night of the MLB Draft, it occurred to me that I’ve missed one type of process point in my prior mocks.

The MLB has set up a rule wherein the players that attend the MLB Draft Combine and submit to the physical portion of the process will be guaranteed to be paid at least 75% of the slot bonus for whichever pick they’re chosen at. This somewhat limits MLB teams’ option to pay these players “underslot” deals. This is primarily beneficial for the senior college players that would otherwise have little negotiating power after using up their college eligibility. This was, specifically, relevant for two players in my most recent mock that I am going to adjust for here.

I’m also saying fuck it to acknowledging what I think Seattle will do. This is my taste and my structure of how best to hack this draft class. Seattle is potentially going to draft for “need” to an extent. Nothing that the MLB team needs right now is going to come from this draft, nor is anything in this draft going to overtake what is already in the minor league system. If we want players that will affect the 2026 roster; we need to trade prospects for major league players. This mock is simply, in my opinion, the best way to pick the best future MLB roster.

#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson

Seattle probably drafts one of the college LHP here, and that might be good for the eventual structure of their whole draft, but I just can’t get over how smooth and polished Carlson is with both the glove and the bat. He feels like one of the few guys at the top of this tepid draft top 10 that has true upside. He has so much body control…all we need is to see him get stronger and his pure current launch angle line drives will become homeruns.

Carlson is ranked #7 on the MLB board, so another part of the idea here is that we should sign him for under the $9.5mill bonus slot. I’ve budgeted him for $8mill.

#1.35cb – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes

Forbes might be the key to this whole draft. If he’s still on the board at #35; I struggle to see the Mariner pitching lab not latching on to him, even though they could start trying to take overslot high school players here. I think I may have reached a new understanding of how Seattle scouts pitching, and if I’m right…Forbes will be a guy they covet.

Forbes has college eligibility remaining, so he will still require a decent signing bonus. I’m giving him slightly below the slot of $2.75mill with a bonus of $2.5mill.

#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

Part of the reason I’m passing on the college LHP at #3 is because I think, longterm, Slawinski will be better than them. The only reason he isn’t a bigger deal right now is because of velo. But, also, what a contradiction that the #1 college LHP, Kade Anderson, has gotten there because of pitchability over velo, and yet, somehow, guys like Kruz Schoolcraft and Jack Bauer are ranked higher (#19 and #44) on the prep lefty board than Slawinski (#68) who has the better pitchability of those three. Whatever. Market inefficiency that I’m hoping to exploit.

Seattle signed Ryan Sloan away from his college commitment at pick #2.55 last year, and a bonus of $3mill. I’m doing the exact same figure for Slawinski at #57…$3mill. This equates to a top 32 pick bonus.

#3.91 – OF, Purvis HS, Jacob Parker

I started including this half of the Parker twins in my last mock, and I’m going to keep him here. I had tinkered with some prep righthanded power hitters; but I was struggling to justify the swing and miss on most of those specific players.

Parker, on the other hand, has one of the strongest overall profiles in my database for this prep class. He’s underrated in a lot of facets, but certainly his power is unquestioned. I’m offering him an overslot bonus of $1.22mill.

#4.122 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Taylor is one of the picks that I’ve had to adjust my drafting on. He is one of the guys that is a senior, but who is gonna be guaranteed at least 75% of the bonus for the slot where he’s picked. I’ve also moved him up a round because I think I had him underrated.

The slot for this pick is $617,200, so I’m giving him just over the 75% figure with a signing bonus of $465,000.

#5.152 – RHP, Baylor, Gabe Craig

In my previous mock, I had Seattle drafting Tennessee reliever Tanner Phillips who brings over a 100mph fastball and could move really fast to the show. Phillips is not a senior and would be guaranteed 75% of slot, so I just don’t know that I can afford him.

Craig is actually one of the highest-scoring pitchers in my entire 2025 college database. He is 24 years old and was not at the Draft Combine, so we can give him the full senior-sign treatment. Last year, Seattle used a couple of relievers (Hunter Cranton and Charlie Beilenson) to save bonus money in this same range of the draft. Those guys got $50k and $25k respectively. I’m not going that hard on Craig, and I can offer him $150k. This still saves Seattle ~$350k for other picks.

#6.182 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Smith is a longtime carryover from my previous mocks. He should be a true senior-sign player as a 22 year old who was not invited to the Combine.

As a lefthanded, power-hitting catcher that has good catch and throw tools; I’m super psyched to add him to the system.

#7.212 – RHP, Shawnee Mission HS, Michael Winter

Winter is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher coming out of Kansas with a really impressive present three-pitch mix. Similar to Slawinski; I love the pitchability more than the current velo. I think Seattle has struggled developing high school guys that come out of their senior year(s) with 97+ kind of velocity (Walter Ford comes to mind). I would like to try the opposite. Let’s draft guys that know how to pitch/spin and see if we can teach them to throw harder.

Winter has an unusual commitment to Dartmouth, but he did attend the Draft Combine, which may speak to an interest in signing if the price is right. I’m offering him $1.20mill, which correlates to approximately the #70 pick’s bonus.

#8.242 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a frequent returner to my mock drafts. I am adjusting his bonus to reflect his status as a guaranteed 75% senior from the Combine. I will give him $170k and work to come up with a program that can keep him healthy enough to continue to be a starter. If not…maybe he might thrive with a bullpen role.

#9.272 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Hawks is a return to the full-fledged senior-sign players. Another 22 year old, reliever-only, that was not at the Combine, we can sign him for basically whatever amount we want (and he agrees to). I’ve budgeted the very specific amount of $129,400.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

Depino falls, somewhat, victim to the MLB Draft rules that give very few options to a player of his age and the college he attended. He gets the smallest bonus of my top 10 rounds with only a $90k bonus.

#11.332 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

The 11th round is frequently one of the more interesting picks in a Mariner draftclass. It’s the first pick of the draft that doesn’t count towards their overall bonus pool. There is no penalty for not signing the player drafted here, while simultaneously, there is more talent still on the board here, obviously, than the 12th-20th rounds. You can draft an overslot guy here if you think you have savings, while not being overly concerned that this pick will affect the others.

Davis is a bit of a wildcard. He has never performed to a level that gives him a high floor. He’s a pretty pure upside pick. You’re hoping you can take his 97mph fastball from the left side, and his plus slider, and you can get him to throw more strikes with them. In 2025 in the SEC, Davis got hit around more than 2023 Mariner 12th round pick, Logan Evans. But Seattle saw enough in Evans to get him figured out to the point he has made it to the show in under two years. Evans was primarily a starter for Pitt, whereas Davis has only really pitched out of the bullpen in college, but Alton has currently made three starts in the MLB Draft League, so maybe there is an outside chance he continues doing that.

The bonus for all picks in rounds 11-20 is slotted for $150k. Teams can go over that figure, but all overages count toward their top 10 round pool.

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney

Most of the rest of this mock will match what I wrote last weekend. I’m not describing a specific bonus amount unless I expect the player to need overslot money.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

See previous mock.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

See previous mock.

#15.452 – RHP, Dax Dathe

In the days after my previous mock; a couple of things happened. I saw more video of Dax Dathe pitching in the MLB Draft League that looked pretty great, and my previous projected pick at #452, RHP Max Grubbs, announced that he is withdrawing his name from the draft to remain at Texas.

Cool. Easy one-for-one swap.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

See previous mock.

#17.512 – LHP, St Joseph, Colton Book

See previous mock.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

See previous mock.

#19.572 – LHP, Northeastern, Jordan Gottesman

After going away from the mock with the college LHP in the top pick; I made a choice to hunt for lefthanded college starters whenever I could. Gottesman doesn’t have some of the pitch metrics I think Seattle looks for, but he’s certainly had pretty strong results in the 2025 season. Across 83 innings he finished with a 2.27 ERA, 0.864 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Maybe the performance staff can build up his strength and/or flexibility in order to tap into a bit more upside.

#20.602 – CF, UTSA, Mason Lytle

See previous mock.

Mariner seven day away mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I wasn’t planning on doing another mock this close to the previous one, but looking at my schedule next week; I’m not sure if/when I would be able to have another chance as my entire next weekend is booked, and day one of the draft is next Sunday. So here we are.

I have a few general Mariner draft thoughts at the top.

I’m still coming back to the idea that the Mariners’ drafting is overrated. They will, basically, come away with each draft class with two major league players. One from near the top and one from the top 10 rounds.

They draft for need, which is kind of a cardinal sin in a sport that takes years of player development.

They pay WAAAAY too much attention to the media rankings and projections on players, rather than forming their own scouting board.

They’re almost always a year behind on forming the best draft strategy for a particular class. So, the draft strategy that they should have in 2023 (due to strength of college/prep or pitching/hitting) they end up using in 2024. In other words, they’re reactionary but in delay.

I think the M’s fucked up pretty bad last year. The pick of Jurrangelo Cijntje was always questionable to me, and as it stands he’s sitting on a season statline of: 4.95 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 10.1 SO/9, 5.4 BB/9 in high-A Everett. Meanwhile, a guy like Trey Yesavage, who many analysts had as a top 15 pick pre-draft (including me), but ended up at #20 (five picks behind Cijntje) has already been promoted to AA, and has a season line of: 2.92 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 14.9 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9. And Yesavage signed for $700k less than Cijntje.

Also last year…Seattle drafts for need. They took 15 pitchers from 20 total draftpicks. And those pitchers have been a MASH unit of injuries:

3rd rounder Hunter Cranton is newly off the IL and has made 4 appearances.

7th rounder Brock Moore, 11th rounder Christian Little, and 18th rounder Matt Tiberia are all currently on 7-day IL.

16th rounder Wyatt Lunsford-Shankman is on the 60-day IL.

6th rounder Grant Knipp, 8th rounder Will Riley, and 17th rounder Harrison Kreiling are all on the full-season IL.

15th rounder Thomas Higgins is assigned to the Arizona Mariners, but has never pitched and is not on any IL that I could find. Not sure what is going on there.

19th rounder Andrew Walters never signed, choosing to go back to school at Miami.

So, out of 15 pitching draftpicks; 6 have never appeared for the team in the first 12 months of being in the organization.

And the hitting from the 2024 Draft, which was always an after-thought, has performed like an after-thought, with none of the five bats hitting over a .704 OPS for the year.

The only saving grace of the 2024 class is that 2nd rounder, Ryan Sloan, has really started to put things together in his last 4-5 starts, and now sits at a respectable 3.73 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 9.8 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9 for the year. And the two relievers that Seattle drafted in the early rounds as underslot, senior-signs, Hunter Cranton and Charlie Beilenson, have been pretty strong when they have pitched. If one of them pans out, plus Sloan, those are your two MLB players from 2024.

But considering the failings of the pitching from last year…considering the health failings of almost every starter on major league team…considering the lack of any pitching prospects in AA to AAA…I think Seattle finds itself again in need of drafting for need, and that means pitching.

I, personally, think the move that should be made in this specific draft class, where the college players of both position and pitcher are not strong, would be to try to draft high school players with upside. But Seattle won’t do that. Well, they will probably do it next year when the class will be completely different.

After listening to Scott Hunter’s press huddle from last week; I really think Seattle is already locked in to draft a college pitcher with their #3 overall pick. Hunter thinks the high school shortstop group, which looks to be a strength of the class, are players more likely to be drafted in the middle of the first round, rather than at the top. College bats are really not strong, and really don’t make sense with the makeup and ETA of Seattle’s farm system. It would make some sense to look for a fast-moving college player (of either bat or arm), but there’s only one college bat in the top 10 (Aiva Arquette), and is he really gonna move faster than Colt Emerson, Laz Montes, Harry Ford, Michael Arroyo, Tyler Locklear who should all be ready this year or next? This Seattle regime has never developed a bat that fast. And high school pitching is traditionally the riskiest pick for all of MLB early in the draft, and has also been the quadrant Seattle has had the least success in drafting/developing. I think it’s a college pitcher at #3.

Then, if we parse college pitching down a bit more…everybody sort of believes the three lefthanders: Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold are the three top arms in the class. I have some numbers that suggest Gage Wood could be argued to be in that mix, if not at the #1 spot if he had a bigger sample size from this year. I’d be pretty interested in seeing what Seattle could do in terms of signing Wood for underslot at #3 when he’s ranked more like #15 overall. Seattle won’t do this. There have been some rumblings of Seattle going underslot on Jojo Parker or Ike Irish, but they are ranked #9 and #11 respectively. That’s less of a reach than Wood looks to be.

Ultimately, I think Seattle will take the best remaining of the three LHP. And it sounds, more and more, like the LHP will be picked 1, 2, 3. So Seattle would be getting the third of three, unless they figure out that, with the biggest overall draft bonus pool in MLB, they could buy down the #1 player on their board by outbidding the Nats and Angels, who sit in front of them. Does Seattle realize they could do this? Does Seattle know how to do this? Does the guy Seattle wants the most also want to come to Seattle enough to not be picked at the ceremonial #1 pick??? Who knows.

And, really, there’s a chance the guy Seattle secretly prefers might naturally fall to #3.

When I did some last minute pitch-metric research yesterday; I actually came away thinking Kade Anderson is not the runaway, unanimous #1 LHP in this class. I was already spooked by the homerun-allowed rate that he gave up last year (1.2 HR per 9 vs 0.9 from Liam Doyle and 0.7 from Jamie Arnold). And there’s, at least, a yellow flag on Anderson that he did have Tommy John surgery in April 2022. I’m just not sold.

On paper…Liam Doyle should be the consensus #1. He’s got the better fastball of the trio, which in every other year would be the thing everyone latched onto. I suppose Anderson is getting the benefit of the most recent recency bias factor, since he pitched a complete game shutout in the second-to-last game in the entire college baseball season, with the win in game one of the College World Series finals. I think that is what is happening.

And Arnold doesn’t have any one thing that would put him above the other two. He’s got the more unusual mechanics of the three which lead to some truly outlier numbers. His release height is insane. None of these guys are very tall…Anderson listed 6’2″ but looks taller due to slender build…Doyle listed 6’2″ but I would be shocked if he broke 6’0″ at the Combine…and Arnold is listed 6’1″ which feels most accurate. But of those three, it’s Arnold that ends up getting furthest down the mound with a 6.7′ extension measurement. Anderson is only 6.2′ and Doyle was harder to find, so I have him as an unconfirmed 6.5′.

Anderson, in so many ways, doesn’t really feel like a Mariner guy, to me. This may never come to be tested as the consensus thought has now completely shifted to having the Nationals take Anderson at #1.1 over HS bat Ethan Holliday.

On paper, Arnold is easily the third of three from these LHP in terms of his 2025 season performance. But if I had to choose based on intangibles; I think Arnold is #1. Doyle is a bit of a psycho on the mound, which tends to lend itself more to a bullpen guy. Anderson is kind of the driest persona of the three, but that could be said of George Kirby, too, but Kirby has been a pretty solid pro.

Looking at the MLB big board (which is probably due for an update before next Sunday)…Anderson is ranked #2, Arnold is ranked #4, and Doyle is ranked #8. Jim Callis’ most recent mock draft from a couple days ago has them being picked: #1.1 Anderson, #1.2 Doyle, #1.8 Arnold. And this mock might be spoilers for how the MLB big board would re-rank in its next iteration.

If Arnold goes into the draft ranked at, or close to, #8 overall; I think he’s also a guy you potentially look to ask for an underslot deal if you draft him at #3. I’m not sold that Seattle does the underslot thing with their first pick. I would LOVE for them to, but historically they really haven’t done that. They will pay their first overall pick at roughly slot money, if not over, and then they look to save money elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. I don’t know if this is a Seattle philosophy when it comes to the draft, or if players aren’t interested in coming all the way to South Alaska for underslot money, or what, but it’s worth noting.

By process of elimination…

#1.3 – LHP, Florida State, Jamie Arnold

I’m pretty resigned to the idea that whoever this pick ends up being; it will be an underwhelming choice, with an underwhelming future career (see also: Emerson Hancock). I think that is what this draft will be. Which isn’t to say the pick will be a bust, or anything. I just expect the future value of this draft class will come from other picks/rounds.

On the positive spin side…how fun that our #1 pick comes from the same school, FSU, as our current #1 player, Cal Raleigh? Yay.

If we do take Arnold, and we do sign him for underslot (let’s say $1.5mill under), we may be able to make up for the underwhelming nature of his choice in the aggregate.

Bonus slot = $9,504,400. Signing amount = $8,000,000. Savings = $1,504,400.

#1.35cb – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes

There is some thought that, because we went underslot college arm at #3, that our next pick will be overslot prep player like we did in 2024 with Cijntje and Sloan. I am going to argue that that strategy is still in play, but it happens at pick #2.57. After all, Sloan was picked at #2.55 last year. This pick at #35 was not in the formula in 2024. We could, in theory, do another college pitcher (which I’ve already established is a “need” for the team) before switching up to the overslot prep player phase.

Forbes is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft. When I saw that Callis had him going #37 overall in his new mock; I was elated. I would love to snipe him at #35.

I’ve budgeted to sign him for $2,500,000 which is only $258k underslot for this pick.

#2.57 – SS, Don Bosco Prep, Nick Becker

Because of the strength of this prep shortstop class; I wanted to see what it would look like to try to buy down one of the many athletic guys that play there to the second round. I wanted it to be a guy with a fielding grade at the top of the class. There is only one 70-grade (Billy Carlson) in the entire class, and then there were two 60-grades (excluding college, leaving us Steele Hall and Lucas Franco), and then four more prep SS with 55-grades: Nick Becker, Daniel Pierce, Eli Willits, John Stuetzer.

Carlson, Hall, Willits, Pierce all have projection of being top 15 overall picks, so I don’t think you get them at #57. If I remember correctly, Sloan had pre-draft ranking of about #19 from which he “dropped” to #55. But he was also a prep righthanded pitcher, which is the riskiest demographic. A prep shortstop probably won’t fall as far.

I basically came away looking at Becker (ranked #51) and Franco (ranked #67) as the two plausible candidates that I also liked as players. Becker is a RHB, Franco is a LHB. Both are currently listed 6’3″+, with Becker being the stouter of the two. I’m leaning towards Becker due to his righthandedness. There are two things I want to address for the Seattle farm system: righthanded hitting and lefthanded pitching.

I’ve got Becker budgeted for a $2,750,000 bonus. This is down slightly from the $3,000,000 that they gave Sloan, but he was projected as a top 20 pick who got drafted at #55. Becker is the #51 player that they are drafting at #57. So, a slight degradation there should be agreeable. This is still $1.1mill over the slot for this pick.

#3.91 – OF, Purvis HS, Jacob Parker

Parker really came to my attention after I began studying his twin brother, Jojo Parker, who is expected to be picked higher of the two. The weird thing when I looked at both brothers: Jojo gets all the love for his hit tool while his power is pretty underrated, and Jacob gets all the love for his power while his hit tool is pretty underrated.

Take high school scoring and stat-tracking with however much relevance as you want, but Jacob has published season statline of: .525/.678/1.846, 45 BB, 13 SO, 17 HR. Which is bananas relative to, basically, every other high school player I looked at.

Many of the things that were relevant for Jojo and his connection to Seattle still apply to Jacob. Both played for the Mariners’ scout team in the East Coast Pro event last summer. Those were players chosen by Mariners’ scouts from states in the Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, etc area.

Jacob was the co-winner of the HS Homerun Derby at the 2024 MLB All-star Game. Though, Jacob actually had the higher total of 24 homeruns to Josiah Hartshorn’s 23 in the derby qualifier; which should have been the tie-breaker, in my opinion. In that contest, Parker beat out names like Ethan Holliday, Brady Ebel, and Xavier Neyens in the preliminary competition.

Jacob really kinda reminds me of a lefthanded Pete Alonso.

I’m projecting Parker to sign for $1,150,000; overslot this pick’s figure by $348k.

#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin

Seattle drafted a couple of underslot, college relievers with their 3rd and 5th round picks last year. I don’t know that Franklin is in the same category as he’s only recently 21 years old and a junior with eligibility remaining, but I do think the intent is similar. High octane, fast-moving bullpen arm.

I’m giving him the full slot amount for this pick of $617,200.

#5.152 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Seattle has been pretty strong at finding those hidden gems in draft classes and this year’s Bryan Woo memorial pick goes to Taylor. Not the biggest player, but Zane did touch 97.7mph at the recent MLB Draft Combine, and he’s got a big horizontal breaking secondary, and some of the best control in the class. This would be a strong pick.

Taylor is a senior, so I’m giving him an underslot $237,400 bonus.

#6.182 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

Smith is arguably the best power-hitting catcher in this class, and he hits lefthanded which is a premium for catchers. The glove and arm aren’t too shabby, either. He’s a senior, so the bonus doesn’t need to be that high, but the pick probably needs to be higher than what the media is projecting.

This is another $237,400 bonus agreement.

#7.212 – RHP, Shawnee Mission HS, Michael Winter

I had Winter in my previous mock, but at a later round. As I’ve continued to study him; I think I want to lock him in sooner. I’m really liking this kid’s makeup, and drafting him this late should mitigate some of the inherent risk on prep righties.

With all of the underslot savings I have so far, and will create in the next few picks, I can offer Winter $1.170mill bonus before breaking into the taxable penalty range. If, for some reason, Seattle can’t come to agreement with Winter on an amount that gets him away from college commitment to Dartmouth; they will lose $276,200 from their overall bonus pool. But we’ve saved $894k from all other picks, which, if added to the value of any pick in rounds 11-20 of $150k, and we’ve got enough money to spend $1.044mill on an overslot guy in the second half of the draft.

#8.242 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola remains a holdover from my previous mocks. The injury concerns also remain, but so does the potential upside. I still like the cost/risk/upside with him should the M’s find a way to manage his health and workload, etc.

I’ve got his bonus planned for $187,400.

#9.272 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Hawks is another reliever-only pick that could move fast through the system. His 2025 went: 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 8 saves. He’s a senior, and I’ll sign him for $112,400 bonus.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

Depino isn’t the best defensive 3B in my study, but he might be the best bat at the spot. He hit .354/.505/1.235 with 21 doubles, 20 HR, and 21 SB this year.

Bonus will also be $112,400.

#11.332 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis

Davis is a dangerous profile. And, really, it’s not one that usually pans out. Last year at Georgia he had an 8.14 ERA, 1.952 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9 and 5.1 BB/9. The good news is: he’s 6’5″ and throwing 98mph from the left side with a disgusting slider. And just a great athlete on the mound. If you can fix this…what a weapon he’d be out of the pen.

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney

Ankeney has that big, power firstbase profile you always hope to find. He’s 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

Fossum is the local product I highlighted in my last mock that has rebuilt himself after transferring out of UW, and starting to work with the crew at Driveline. He hit .382/.496/1.274 last year with 23 HR, and showed a decent arm from the outfield.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

Daniels was the 2B player I found and liked the best. He hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR and 75 RBI this year.

#15.452 – RHP, Texas, Max Grubbs

There are relievers with better strikeout numbers than Grubbs, but something about his stuff really popped for me when I watched him.

#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibodeaux was one of the best pure hitters in college last season. Only a 5’8″ build, but he hit .439/.544/1.391 with 18 HR and 24 SB. Could be a nice little leadoff man down the road.

#17.512 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book

I’ve seen some of the guys that scored particularly high in my annual pitching study, but who didn’t have overwhelmingly powerful stuff, still turn out to be solid performers in the minors. Book could/would be one of that profile. He’s 6’4″ with only about a 91mph fastball from the southpaw side, but he still managed a sub-1.000 WHIP and over 12 SO/9 for the year. At minimum, he should eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

Hynek is a flawed prospect with only a .230 average last year, but he hit 18 HR and has an above-average arm behind the plate. He’s worth a flyer this late.

#19.572 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines

I had Hines in my previous mock but I was self-admittedly not sure how they would have money to sign him away from his commitment to Alabama. The plan now is: if they don’t sign Michael Winter, the money budgeted for him moves down all the way to Hines here in the 19th round. If they do sign Winter; they probably let Hines walk. They did a version of this last year when they picked Miami closer Andrew Walters, also in the 19th round, and he didn’t sign.

Hines has one of the biggest statistical lines in the high school ranks this year. It goes: Jacob Parker, Jojo Parker, and then Hines, followed by Josh Hammond. Hines hit 20 HR this season. His batspeed is crazy. I have bigtime questions on his defensive position…he might, honestly, only be a DH at the end of the day… but if you can dream on Nelson Cruz with him, that’s still a valuable player.

#20.302 – OF, UTSA, Mason Lytle

Throughout this mock, I had to make sacrifices in order to get certain (every) player. One of the sacrifices I made repeatedly was to give up an outfielder for a different, probably more premium position. So at the end of this draft I really wanted to find a very solid, glove-forward, centerfield-capable, senior-sign type of player. Lytle checked a lot of boxes.

He’s 24 years old this past spring. He won the AAC Defensive Player of the Year. And he hit .366/.424/.984 with 10 HR, 22 doubles, 24 BB, 23 SO, and 17 SB on the year.

The need for the Mariners in this draft is college pitching…I have them picking nine of them. The best draft strategy in this draft is targeting high upside prep players…I have them picking four of them. I think this is a pretty strong breakdown and balance. Hopefully, Seattle can actually execute something similar.

Mariner mock: July

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to July, 2025. We are now less than two weeks away from the MLB Draft. Cliff’s notes summary: the Mariners have the biggest draft bonus pool in all of MLB to work with, they have the #3 overall pick, and it is a terrible year to have that high of a pick. The top end of this draft class is widely considered underwhelming, but the depth is thought to be good. The two players currently most associated with Seattle at pick #3, Oregon State SS Aiva Arquette and Florida State LHP Jamie Arnold, would probably not be drafted in the top 8-10 picks in most years.

Some people think that the Mariners NEED to draft a college player that could move quickly through the minors so as to help the MLB club sooner than later in this “competitive window” we’re in where we have so much young, controllable starting pitching. I disagree with that thought because the Mariners have one of the deepest farm systems in the league. Much of that depth projects to be ready to debut in MLB this year or next. A 2025 draftpick from this weak first round pool will not, likely, surpass the players that Seattle already has between A+ Everett and AAA Tacoma in twelve months.

So then…what does one do? I’ve talked for several weeks now that Seattle could, in a sense, trade down the #3 pick. How does one do that in a league that doesn’t allow trades of most draftpicks? You don’t sign the player you pick in a given round. That pick then becomes guaranteed to land one pick later in the next year’s draft. So, for example, Seattle’s #3 pick this year would become the #4 pick in 2026. A small sacrifice to make, but you might actually come out ahead in the aggregate as the 2026 draft class looks much stronger at the top of the draft than 2025.

Seattle will not do this. No MLB club ever really consciously does this. Mostly, that reasoning comes from the fact that the overwhelming largest chunk (about 55%) of Seattle’s total pool is tied to the #3 pick. If you don’t sign a player in that slot; you lose the corresponding bonus pool allotment. And bonus pool, more than anything, equals draft flexibility. The draft golden rule: He who has the bonus pool, makes the rules. Seattle could pre-negotiate with, basically, any player in the draft to the largest single signing bonus in the league. Which could, in theory, mean they could get the #1 player with the #3 pick (should they choose to spend the money that way).

They could also choose to spread the $9.5million designated for the #3 pick out across multiple picks/players, and therefore take advantage of the expected depth of this class. Because Seattle won’t use the “trade down” strategy, it becomes the best option, in my opinion, to spread the bonus pool out to multiple players.

Which players do you spread the bonus pool around to? In a year with mediocre college talent; you draft for upside from the ranks of the high school players. This is the best strategy for this specific draft class.

#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson

I had Carlson in my earlier mock draft and I’m coming back to him now as we’re closer to the draft. I did a pretty deep dive (the top 150 players on the board per MLB) simply logging the highest graded tools for all players. Baseball grading scales top out at an 80 grade for any given trait (hit, power, run, arm, defense, or any specific pitch type for pitchers).

In this class, there are zero 80-grade traits, there are two 75-grade traits (both are LHP fastballs), and ten players with a 70-grade trait. All of the 70-grade traits from pitchers are fastballs, and the majority of 70’s for position players are from run-tools. The big outlier on the grading scale is the defense grade for Billy Carlson. He is the only 70 score in the top 150 players (and probably the entire draft if I had checked).

I also came up with my own metric to put all position players on the same grading scale. When I did that, the #1 overall position player was Carlson. I don’t know why he isn’t ranked higher on most boards (he is #7 per MLB, but that should, arguably, be like #4). Well, I have a guess. It’s cause all media (and probably most teams) over-value present graded power. The “power tool” for baseball players is basically akin to the forty time for NFL players. It’s easiest to see and understand. But that doesn’t mean it’s best or right.

Carlson is the smoothest player in this whole class. Yes, that is how he moves on defense at short, which he rightly gets credit for, but it’s also his actions at the plate, which he doesn’t get proper credit for. This guy understands how his body works, and he knows how to use it. I think he has an innate understanding of launch angle. All that he needs is to get stronger. Which is probably one of the easier things to fix when talking about a guy that is only just out of high school.

Now, for the business side of things. Carlson is committed to Tennessee for college should he decide to, either, wholesale forego the draft, or not be able to negotiate an agreeable signing bonus in the next 12 days. MLB teams will know this information before the draft, but the greater public may not (some players announce these things beforehand, but many don’t).

Because Carlson is ranked the #7 player in the class; should he get drafted earlier than that; there may be an expectation that he take an underslot deal that is closer to the #7 pick value. The exact value of the Mariners’ #3 pick is $9,504,400. The exact value of pick #7 is $7,149,900. If Seattle takes one of the lower ranked players, and signs him for closer to $7,500,000; that player wins by getting more than they were projected to get, and the club wins because they have ~$2mill pocketed that can be offered to overslot players later in the draft.

Honestly, if Seattle is as good at scouting/drafting as their reputation suggests; they should be able to do this maneuver at a high success rate. You’re, in a sense, getting 2-4 upside players for the price of one.

If not Carlson; it would be pretty interesting to see Seattle go underslot on Arkansas RHP Gage Wood. He has a small sample size on his 2025 performance, and there is a medical question on his shoulder health, but when he has pitched this year; he has been arguably the best pitcher in the class. And it doesn’t appear that he will make it to #35 now.

#1.35 – CF, IMG Academy, Sean Gamble

The second part of going underslot at pick #3 is the behind-the-scenes negotiating that has to happen quickly before this next pick. Seattle can/should immediately start talking to the high school players they covet that are ranked, roughly, between #12-#30. Seattle needs to use their bonus pool superiority to “outbid” the teams that are actually on the clock in that range so that our target player tells those other clubs not to draft him because his signing figure is too high (but it’s not gonna be too high for Seattle).

The prep players in the 12-30 range are: SS Steele Hall, SS Daniel Pierce, 2B Kayson Cunningham, LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, 3B Gavin Fien, OF Slater de Brun, 3B Xavier Neyens, 3B Josh Hammond, OF Sean Gamble. My eye is drawn to the last three names on that list.

Xavier Neyens is the local product out of Mt Vernon, WA with bigtime power from the lefthand side.

Josh Hammond is one of the higher ranked pure hitters in my study. He has some possible two-way play ability, and hits/throws righthanded.

Sean Gamble has a great overall profile with high marks on all traits. He could be a second baseman, but more likely goes to centerfield. He’s got a pretty good eye hitting from the left side.

These guys have college commitments to respected college programs: Oregon State, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt, respectively. It could take a decent bonus to sign them away from college. The natural bonus slot for pick #35 is $2,758,300. If any of these three players were drafted at their matching big board value (they are ranked players #25, #26, #27); their signing bonus companion would be between $3.6mill down to $3.3mill. That is roughly the amount I would project to spend for overslot at pick #35.

I’m going with Gamble over the other two options for his position-versatility. He might be a second baseman, but he can definitely play centerfield. I’ve kind of got him projected like a Corbin Carroll type of guy.

#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski

In a move similar to the drafting of Ryan Sloan at pick #55 last year; I’m taking my favorite prep lefthander in the 2nd round. I love the present pitchability he brings, and I’m looking to help him add velo. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, so I’m putting Bryce Miller on the phone with him to help upsell the M’s pitching lab. And then, of course, I go overslot the #57 pick that starts at $1,636,800 and I will push that number up to $2.75mill to get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Tulane, Michael Lombardi

I had a couple college arms that I had my eye on as potential targets at #35, but both have seemed to elevate out of reach of that pick, so I’m turning to the next tier. Lombardi has a similar profile to Patrick Forbes in that both were two-way players in college, but with a new freedom to concentrate on pitching; I think his game can be elevated.

He is only a junior at Tulane, so I will go slightly over the $851,800 slot to get him signed. I’m calling it a $900,000 bonus.

#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin

Franklin, like most of the arms coming out of Tennessee this year (and in recent years), has a bigtime arm. I counted at least six college pitchers that hit triple-digits this year, and Franklin was one. I like his overall profile a bit more than most of the others, and as a junior class guy; I will give him overslot money, as well. This pick is worth $617,200 and I’m penciling him in for $700,000. As a true reliever, this could, potentially, be a very fast-mover once in the system.

#5.152 – RHP, Zane Taylor

I think the second and third tiers of college pitching will go pretty fast in this draft, so I’m pushing the issue on the guys I like best from those tiers. Taylor is one of my favorite starters in this whole class, so I’m really just hoping that he lasts this long. He did recently turn 23 years old, so that may help him drop a bit, and then we can potentially save a bit of money on him as a senior signing.

I’ve allotted $237,400 to sign him.

#6.182 – C, Wright St, Boston Smith

I guess I worry that most of my favorite guys will be gone before I’ve got them listed in every mock, but that certainly applies to Boston Smith. He is one of my favorite guys in the entire draft. This is a lefty-hitting catcher with bigtime power and a pretty underrated catch/throw skillset behind the plate. He is a senior, so as long as he’s still on the board; I think we can go underslot at $237,400…identical to Zane Taylor.

#7.212 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a holdover from my previous mocks, and I just continue to juggle where I think I can pick him before the league does. Restating the backstory…this is an overaged guy with bigtime stuff and performance when he has played, but he’s barely played across four years in college. Huge injury redflags. But Seattle has taken chances on many guys like him before, including Bryan Woo and Teddy McGraw. If we have to move him to the bullpen to put less tax on his arm…so be it.

Bonus money here will be $187,400.

#8.242 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Another pure reliever; Hawks ticks a lot of boxes at 6’4″/225lbs after transferring from the Air Force Academy to Vanderbilt before this last year. A 1.60 ERA and 8 saves in 18 appearances in the SEC is nothing to sneeze at.

Another senior, the bonus for him is the same as Coppola: $187,400.

#9.272 – OF, Kent State, Jake Casey

Casey is the son of former MLB All-Star, Sean Casey, and he had a great year at Kent State hitting .356/.500/1.236 with 17 HR and 20 SB.

We’re still in senior-sign mode and Casey qualifies. That, and a small-school discount, means he gets $112,400.

#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino

It’s not necessarily a strength of this draft class, but I think it’s a need in the Mariner farm system to add some more righthanded thump. Depino hit .354/.505/1.235 this year with 20 HR and 21 SB.

I’ve got his bonus the same as the 9th round: $112,400.

#11.332 – RHP, Michael Winter

Seattle has occasionally used their pick in the 11th round to draft an overslot player. Well…technically rounds 11-20 are not slotted. They all have the same max value of $150,000 with anything above that counting against their total bonus allowance for rounds 1-10.

Last year they gave RHP Christian Little $200,000 in the 11th round out of LSU. In 2019 they gave C Carter Bins $350,000 (this was when the max was $125,000 before counting towards bonus pool) out of Fresno State. And in 2018, they gave prep RHP Damon Casetta-Stubbs $325,000 also in the 11th round.

I especially like this strategy in 2025 when Seattle is starting with such a big bonus pool. That is why I drafted six consecutive senior signs in rounds 5-10, and why I noted such specific signing bonuses for them. I am planning to put away a total of $850,000 in bonus pool rounds 1-10, so that I can add that to the “slot” for pick #332 of $150,000, so that I can draft and sign my fourth (and final) high school player.

Every year there is a slew of high school players ranked as top 10 round players, but who go undrafted because they wanted a certain dollar figure to sign away from college. I want to have a full seven-figure amount to be able to offer them.

Who this player will be is very tough to forecast. This is going to be a guy that has “fallen” anywhere from three to eight entire rounds due to a price tag that isn’t publicly-known.

Michael Winter is ranked at exactly #200 by MLB’s big board. He is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher out of Kansas who only just turned 18 in June, and who has a college commitment to Dartmouth, in the Ivy League. That’s an interesting school to try to figure out. It could absolutely suggest that Winter has education as a priority. It could also suggest that he didn’t get many big offers from schools better known for their baseball programs.

If Winter has the grades/IQ for Dartmouth…maybe he’s smart enough to know Seattle has a strong pitching lab, and that could pull him away from school. Well, that and a big friggen check. The bonus here will be $1,000,000 (for Winter, or whichever prep player they can agree with).

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola, Beau Ankeney

As I mentioned earlier, I’m looking for power-hitting righthanded bats. Ankeney is 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.

#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum

Fossum is a local product…born in Bellevue, went to HS at Eastside Catholic, and played three years at UW before transferring to Youngstown before this year. He’s also been known to get his work in at Driveline. And maybe that’s why Fossum’s bat took a huge jump this year allowing him to hit .382/.496/1.274 with 23 HR in 220 AB’s after only hitting 1 HR in 65 AB’s in his entire UW career.

#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

Daniels I found while trying to identify a second baseman that I liked, since my mock didn’t have one yet. A good-sized athlete at 6’0″/200lbs, Daniels hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR this year.

#15.452 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibs I had in my previous mock, and I’m keeping him. He was one of the highest-scoring players of all positions in my hitting analysis. A huge average guy at .439/.544/1.199, but he also showed good pop for his small stature of 5’8″/175lbs with 18 HR.

#16.482 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book

Book is not an eye test guy. His stuff is far from over-powering. But he really popped in my pitching metric, and so I’m trusting that a bit, while not going too crazy with a high pick on him. Listed 6’4″/210lbs, he had a 3.53 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 12.7 SO/9 on the year.

#17.512 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines

This is very much a flyer pick. Hines is a 6’3″/230lb outfielder with a commitment to Alabama. He’s got a pretty weak throwing arm, I don’t love the run-tool, he probably maxes out as a DH, but the dude hit like crazy last year to the tune of a .438 avg and a 1.508 WHIP. Plus, to the best I could find, he hit the most HR from the high school ranks in the country with 20 HR. I don’t know how much it would take to sign him, and I haven’t earmarked additional funds for him, but sometimes you make a pick and see what happens. Maybe we get the 11th round pick signed for less than $1mill. Maybe Seattle dips into the penalty range over their bonus allotment that means it gets taxed additionally (they could go up to $850k over slot before hitting second level of penalties). Maybe Hines just really wants to sign.

#18.542 – C, Colin Hynek

I, personally, like drafting two catchers every year, but Seattle has also seemed able to find a decent second catcher in the undrafted free agency period after the draft in multiple recent years.

Hynek has some work to do as a hitter after slashing .230/.396/.982 this year, but he did hit 18 HR while showing decent receiving skills.

#19.572 – LHP, Western Kentucky, Cal Higgins

Who doesn’t love a guy named Cal. A big boy at 6’5″/240lbs, Higgins had a 1.87 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, and 10.8 SO/9 out of the bullpen for the Hilltoppers this year. He’s recently committed to Texas in the transfer portal, so this might end up like Brian Walters was for Seattle in the 2024 Draft…an unsigned late round reliever.

#20.602 – 1B/3B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez

Velazquez has one of the biggest discrepancies between where he came in on my hitting metric, and where he lands on media draft boards…which equals value. He is a former Vanderbilt player, but never got much opportunity while there. After transferring to play for the Governors, Velazquez hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR this year.

I have zero expectations that Seattle does anything but draft chalk at the #3 pick. They’ve never been creative with their drafting on their first pick. They usually draft a player that is media-ranked in the range they pick. They usually pay him roughly slot, if not slightly over. They usually leave someone on the board that they would have been better off drafting.

Fortunately, they’ve had better success with later picks. If they can come away from this draft with two future MLB top 100 prospects from the picks between 35-212; it will be a successful draft. But still…it’d be nice to see them over-achieve that considering the opportunity that their luck leading up to this draft has afforded them.

Mariner mock 3

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re just over three weeks away from the 2025 MLB Draft, and things are speeding up in the process. The finals of the College World Series start tomorrow, and we’ve seen some high pressure, high stakes performances from many names relevant to this year’s draft. Multiple summer leagues are underway including the MLB Draft League and the Cape Cod League. And last week we had the fifth annual MLB Draft Combine. We’re getting lots of new, more specific data points on a lot of players hoping to hear their names called in July.

This new info is, perhaps, pointing us towards a clearer picture of the broader overall draftboard. What are the tiers of different player profiles. Who are the guys that are rising. Who are the guys at the back of the draft that have differentiated themselves from guys that will probably go undrafted.

In my previous mock draft for the Mariners; I speculated on a draft strategy wherein Seattle would look to, effectively, trade their 2025 first round pick at #3 overall to the 2026 draft where it would become the #4 overall pick, in what looks to be a stronger class at the top of the draft. I knew when I wrote that mock this idea was unlikely…nobody in MLB ever does this. I still think it would be a bold, innovative, and smart move. But it’s like a 1% chance that it happens.

So what would be the second-best draft strategy in a weak top-end draft class?? I think it would be to hyper-focus on prep players. The guys that we don’t have as clear of a picture on their future values, but which could mean higher upside (while, naturally, also having the risk of lower upside). While seeking that upside, I think it’s simultaneously important to get multiple bites at that apple, which means looking for an underslot signer for that #3 pick (and maybe a couple select points on day two of the draft), which can then give you surplus bonus money to offer to players that fall to later picks.

Something that the media has come to pretty consensus agreement on for this draft class is that there is a pretty strong group of high school shortstops. This group includes to some degree, and some variance in likelihood that they can stick at short, players like: Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, Jojo Parker, Steele Hall, and Daniel Pierce. These are all players ranked in the top 20 overall on most big boards.

Holliday is widely considered to be the likely #1 pick going to the Washington Nationals. We won’t look much at him.

Willits is the #5 player on the MLB board. Listed 6’1″/180lbs and a switch-hitter. Willits is a young player for the class (which some teams prefer) as he won’t turn 18 until December.

Carlson is #7 on the MLB board. Listed 6’1″/185lbs and a righthanded hitter. Carlson will turn 19 about two weeks after the draft. He might be the best pure defender amongst these early candidates.

Parker is #10 on the MLB board. Listed 6’2″/200lbs and hitting lefthanded. Parker probably has the best hit-tool amongst this group, while probably having the least likelihood of sticking at short. He turns 19 in August. Of this group, Parker is the one that two separate media sources have independently connected to Seattle as a potential underslot signee.

Hall is the #13 player on the MLB board. Listed 6’0″/180lbs and hitting righty. Hall is another younger player that will turn 18 about ten days after the draft. Interestingly, Hall and Billy Carlson are both committed to the University of Tennessee. It’s unlikely both make it to Knoxville.

Pierce is the #18 overall on teh MLB board. Listed 6’0″/185lbs and hitting righthanded. He will turn 19 in August.

Is there a combination of present grade, future grade, and signing bonus figure from this group that puts one of these guys ahead of the others? And, really, part of the equation is actually: “is it better to draft a college player at/near/above bonus slot at #3, or would it be better to get an underslot player with more upside that then also allows you to get another upside player later on?” Basically a question of, “can you get two for one?”

In this particular draft class, I think they should do the latter. Let’s go for the 2×1.

In my opinion, the two guys to focus on in this scenario are Billy Carlson and Jojo Parker. This basically represents the best defender of the group and the best hitter of the group. In my first mock draft in May, I actually was going with Carlson as I just loved his glove so much. In theory, Seattle has two pretty strong shortstop candidates already coming through the system in Colt Emerson and Felnin Celesten. We don’t, necessarily, HAVE to keep a guy at shortstop.

So, in this mock, I’m pivoting to take the better hitter, who also happens to be the guy that has some buzz surrounding Seattle interest. There’s also the fact that Parker was a member of the 2024 East Coast Pro all star team of players from the states of Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, etc that were chosen by Mariner scouts and played under the name “Mariners”. There is some documented connection between Seattle and Jojo (and Jojo’s twin brother, Jacob).

#1.3 – SS, Purvis HS, Jojo Parker

While the hit-tool is clearly the headliner here; as I’ve dug in deeper to Parker I think his power and his glove are underrated. No, I don’t think he sticks at shortstop, but I do think he sticks on the dirt. His fielding actions are smooth and efficient. I think his move off shortstop will be dictated more by his range than his literally fielding. His arm looks decent. I think he’s a future third baseman. And that’s where the underrated power will come into play. I think his power is coming along very nicely and he will have enough power for 3B. He might end up similar to another player that has recently been in the news: Rafael Devers.

Now comes the business end of this selection. As a guy being projected as the #10 player in this class; if you draft him at #3, you’re doing so (in part) to save some money. The #3 pick holds a bonus slot value of $9.5million. The bonus slot value of, say, the #10 pick is $6.2million. The middle point between those two is $7.85million. If you sign Parker for, roughly, $8million, that $1.5million savings will come in extremely useful on later picks. For those that question the plausibility of underslotting a high school player at #3…Max Clark was drafted at #3 overall in 2023 and signed for about $600k underslot. The same draft, Blake Mitchell signed for ~$1.08million underslot at pick #8. Kumar Rocker drafted out of college in 2022 at pick #3 signed for $2.39mill underslot.

#1.35c – 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS, Quentin Young

The second big adjustment in this mock draft is that my intended/previous target at #35, RHP Patrick Forbes, is now going to be off the board after his performance in the CWS. But, with the bonus savings at #3, this pick can now be another prep player.

I love 2B/OF Sean Gamble. What an impressive, mature profile. He kind of reminds me of Corbin Carroll.

I love local product Xavier Neyens, but as a lefthanded hitter with future 3B in his projection; he’s probably redundant after drafting Parker.

And there’s potentially a handful of prep pitchers that profile similar to 2024 draftee Ryan Sloan that might fit here: LHP Jack Bauer, RHP Aaron Watson, RHP Landon Harmon, LHP Johnny Slawinski. High school arms are historically the riskiest draft demographic, and Seattle historically can find/develop interesting, future-MLB arms from college pitchers in the midrounds of the draft.

I’m going with Quentin Young here because he’s different than what we’ve ever seen the M’s draft out of high school. He’s a power-first righthanded hitter when Seattle has almost always drafted hit-first, lefthanded guys.

Young is an MLB bloodline guy with two uncles that played in Delmon and Dmitri Young. He’s already 6’6″/225lbs with grown-man exit velocities touching 115mph at this week’s Combine. He’s got pretty surprising fluidity playing the infield at that size, so he might stick there. But he’s also got enough speed when underway that he might make a decent outfielder.

Quentin is ranked #33 overall on the MLB board, so this isn’t a reach or a fall. And then it comes down to giving him enough bonus to sign him away from college commitment to LSU. The slot value for #35 is $2.75mill. With most of the savings from the #3 pick; we could get Young signed for $4mill, which equates to about the #21 overall pick, aka first round money.

#2.57 – LHP, Iowa, Cade Obermueller

If there’s a second category of player that the 2025 draft looks especially strong in; it’s probably lefthanded pitching. And that is something that Seattle is woefully short on in their farm and major league team. I don’t know why they treat LHP the way that they do. I speculate they have data that points to RHP being stronger performers in TMobile Park, but who knows.

There’s also something interesting going on this year with pitchers that are shorter in stature. There are an unusually high number of starting pitchers that are right about 6’0″ tall. Liam Doyle is listed 6’2″ but I don’t believe that at all. JB Middleton is listed 6’0″, Gage Wood is listed 6’0″, Obermueller is listed 6’0″, JD Thompson is listed 6’0″, Brian Curley is listed 5’10”, Zane Taylor is listed 6’0″. Could there be a Spencer Strider in that group?

Obermueller might be merging these two factions. For the year, he posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9. Compare that to likely top five pick Jamie Arnold: 2.98 ERA, 1.063 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9. And then note the similar pitching mechanics/release heights of these two players. These are surprisingly similar profiles, but with a huge discount on Cade.

#3.91 – OF, George Mason, James Quinn-Irons

There’s a nice little pocket of players in this class that have imposing size, nice power, sneaky good gloves, and bonus basestealing in the outfield. I like JQI the best of that grouping. Listed 6’5″/230lbs and posting a 2025 line of: .419/.523/1.258, with 16 HR, 42 XBH, 39 BB, 46 SO.

#4.122 – RHP, Tulane, Michael Lombardi

After losing out on Patrick Forbes, I think I’ve found a similar profile in Lombardi. Forbes was formerly a two-way player that is now pitching-only for the last two years. Lombardi was still playing two-ways this year with games as CF, 2B, 1B and P (primarily CF).

As a pitcher, Lombardi had 23 appearances, including 6 games started. I don’t have splits for how his numbers broke down starter vs reliever, but his overall performance went: 2.14 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, 15.6 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9 across 42 innings. The hope is that he can start and that, with focus on pitching, he can tighten up his control.

#5.152 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

I think I’ve bounced back and forth in my respective mocks on how early to draft Smith. I’m steering into my hitting metric this time, and giving him closer to the value that my stat suggests. The lefty-hitting catcher with power is just too valuable.

#6.182 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor

Similar to Boston Smith, with Taylor I’m steering into my pitching metric more this time. Taylor is another in that list of shorter starting pitchers that we’re dreaming on a Spencer Strider. On the year, Taylor went 1.98 ERA, 0.763 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9, 1.0 BB/9. At the combine he posted one of the top fastball velo’s at 97.7mph.

#7.212 – RHP, Abilene Christian, Dominick Reid

Reid I had in my previous mock. 6’3″/201lbs and a former transfer from Oklahoma State. Reid’s line was 3.26 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 15 starts this year. And then, at the Combine this week, Reid popped as one of the top performers in multiple pitch movement measurements. There’s some intriguing clay to mold here.

#8.242 – 3B, Cincinnati, Kerrington Cross

Most likely a senior sign, Cross has tremendous intangibles, and he’s no slouch in the on-field performance: .396/.526/1.173, 12 HR, 50 BB, 35 SO, 15 SB.

#9.272 – RHP, Baylor, Gabe Craig

Craig is the #1 relief pitcher in my metric, and he has some postseason awards on his resume that may make this way too late to get him. But at 6’5″/209lbs, with a 0.56 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 14.3 SO/9, 0.8 BB/9 and 10 saves this could be a fast-mover in a system that needs more in-house pitching.

#10.302 – OF, Dallas Baptist, Nathan Humphreys

Humphreys first caught my eye with his glove. He’s got legit centerfield skills. And then his offensive line wasn’t too shabby either. He hit .353/.457/1.135 with 17 HR, 38 BB, 38 SO, and 21 SB.

#11.332 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

Coppola is a carryover from previous mocks, and we’re just trying to find the sweet spot between his present value where he’s a frequently-injured starting pitcher, his really strong performance when he HAS pitched, and the fact that he might be discounted due to his senior status (and injury history). But if you pick the right round, this could be insane value for an SEC starter.

#12.362 – RF, Kent State, Jake Casey

Casey is the son of Sean, the longtime MLB player, and he has put together a very solid college career in his own right. At 6’2″/190lbs, Sean hit .356/.500/1.236 with 17 HR, 20 SB last year. And he’s got an above-average outfield arm.

#13.392 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

It felt like the Mariners tried to draft a handful of quick-moving, relief pitchers in the 2024 Draft. That effort seemed to sidetrack this year with injuries and/or underperformance. But it still could be a useful strategy going forward. Hawks is an Air Force Academy transfer listed 6’4″/215lbs. In 2025 he had a 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 8 saves in 18 appearances out of the Vandy bullpen. His fastball has been up to 95mph.

#14.422 – 1B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez

There were a bunch of interesting bats on this Austin Peay roster, but I came away having Velazquez as the highest on my hitting metric. At 6’1″/212lbs he hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR, 32 BB, 32 SO in the college season, and he’s continued swinging it well across the first five games he’s played on the Cape where he’s sitting at a .389 average.

#15.452 – RHP, Coastal Carolina, Ryan Lynch

Lynch is the local product from Monroe, WA that has made his way all the way to the College World Series finals tomorrow. A pure reliever at 6’4″/234lbs, he has a 0.58 ERA, 1.032 WHIP, 10.2 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 9 saves in 27 appearances.

#16.482 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels

When doing a Mariner mock draft, I can’t help but think of it similarly to putting together a roster. After all, most of these guys will end up becoming the bulk of the low-A Modesto lineup later this summer. You kind of need a variety of guys so that you have most positions covered.

Daniels was one of the better second base options from my hitting metric. He posted a line of .365/.476/1.220 this year with 18 HR, 40 BB, 41 SO, and 10 SB for the Huskies.

#17.512 – LHP, UCSB, Hudson Barrett

Barrett was one of my most recent discoveries just in the last week after popping in the Combine with some of the higher-ranking pitch movement statistics on his secondary pitches. At 6’5″/225lbs, Hudson is a prototypical pitcher build, and his rate stats of 1.93 ERA, 0.643 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9 are solid. There is some question mark as to why he only threw 4.2 innings during the college season in three starts as an “opener”. In his summer league more recently, Barrett threw 4.0 innings of shutout ball.

#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek

I generally like to have two catchers in every mock. It’s too much of a specialty position to not get a couple. Hynek is a 6’1″/200lb backstop with an underwhelming .230/.396/.982 slash, but 18 HR and a solid catch and throw defensive profile.

#19.572 – RHP, Grove City CC, David Leslie

Leslie is another recent discovery after a strong performance in his first appearance out of the bullpen for his MLB Draft League team. Listed 6’3″/185lbs, his JUCO season line went: 2.05 ERA, 0.938 WHIP, 10.13 SO/9.

#20.602 – LF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux

Thibodeaux is quietly one of the best pure hitters in the country. He hit .439/.544/1.391 with 18 HR, 39 BB, 27 SO, and 24 SB during the college regular season, and he’s recently posting near-identical numbers in the Draft league at .423/.545/1.199 with 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 SO in 7 games so far. The downside is that he’s only 5’8″/175lbs and really only has one year of strong performance, and it came in the lower level Southwestern Athletic Conference.

Mariners June mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

It’s becoming more and more commonly written and discussed that the 2025 MLB Draft is not very strong at the very top of the class. This is truly unfortunate because Seattle had previously seemed to get quite lucky to end up with the #3 overall pick this year in the draft lottery, when their earned draft position was closer to #15 overall. As I’ve been studying this draft class; I’m really struggling to find a guy that feels worthy of the third pick. In my previous mock, my thought was to try to find upside with that pick by drafting one of the high school players, but even that wasn’t super satisfying. Thinking like a football draft student…I really wanted to find a way to trade down the third pick. This isn’t allowed under the rules of the MLB Draft structure.

Then, a few days ago, I woke up at, like, 3:30 in the morning with this idea…

In the MLB Draft, if you don’t sign your draftpick in the first or second round; you will get to draft at the same slot plus one the following year. This means that the Mariners, if they don’t sign the guy they draft with the #3 pick next month, will be awarded the #4 overall pick in the 2026 Draft. So you would, ostensibly, be trading down one slot and one year.

The Mariners WILL NOT do this. No MLB team does this. The primary reason that teams don’t do this is that the signing bonus allotment for every team is aligned directly with the order of their picks, and in the top 10 rounds, the bonus allotment that coincides with a specific pick will be forfeited from their total bonus pool if they don’t sign the player at that slot.

In exact terms of the 2025 Draft…due to the high value of their lottery pick at #1.3, plus a compensatory competitive balance pick they were awarded at #1.35 overall, Seattle has ended up with the largest total bonus pool of all 30 MLB teams. This is only true if they sign all eleven of their picks in the top ten rounds. The M’s total bonus pool for the top ten rounds is: $17,074,400. The bonus pool assigned to the #3 pick alone is: $9,504,400. If the Mariners don’t sign whoever they end up drafting there; their bonus pool immediately shrinks to $7,570,000. This is a loss of 55% of their potential spending. And that pool can be spent in any way the team sees fit, as long as they sign someone at each draftpick. This new amount would take Seattle from the most bonus pool in MLB, to the fifth-worst bonus pool.

But here is where the conversation gets interesting. Seattle, in their 2025 season, are currently not playing to a level that they would make the playoffs. They are currently on pace to earn the #14 overall pick for the 2026 Draft. That pick would also be entered into the Draft Lottery for next year where they could win a pick in the top six or seven in that class. Seattle could, conceivably, end up with two picks in the top eight overall, and certainly two picks in the top fifteen. And, in baseball drafts, the talent level can swing wildly from year to year. Thirteen months away from the 2026 Draft, the early opinion is that next year’s class is easily better than this year’s.

If you followed this strategy…the 2026 Draft could be franchise (re)defining for the Seattle Mariners. And I think it’s worth doing.

So……in this mock draft, I am not terribly concerned with who we/Seattle drafts at #3. I think you draft a high school player, simply because they are the most likely to give the optics of being hard to sign away from their college commitment. It could be a college player…Kumar Rocker was recently an un-signed college player when he was drafted #10 overall in the 2021 Draft, he didn’t sign and returned to Vanderbilt, and then he signed after being picked with the #3 overall pick in the 2022 Draft. But, again, the optics will look better with a prep player.

#1.3 – RHP, Corona HS, Seth Hernandez

The top two high school players are IF Ethan Holliday and Hernandez, and there’s pretty good odds that one of the two will be available at #3. Righthanded HS pitching is notoriously the most-risky category to draft early, and Hernandez is one of the older players coming out of the prep class, as he will turn 19 on June 28th. Hernandez is currently, and ironically, committed to go to college at Vanderbilt. He may actually have a pretty high asking price to sign this year, so it would look believable if they didn’t end up signing him.

Again, the downside to this is, honestly, not the loss of a player at the third pick…the loss is the flexibility to make moves via overslot deals later on in the draft. They COULD still draft and negotiate to make those kind of picks happen, but it would be harder, and probably with less-talented players.

#1.35 competitive balance – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes

To me, I look at Forbes as a guy that might actually be deserving of being picked with the #3 pick. There are four pitchers at the top of the college leaderboard in SO/9…three of the four are lefthanded. The #2 guy is a reliever that has enough innings to qualify for rate stats, and the #1 and #4 guys are Liam Doyle and Kade Anderson…two starters that are getting talked about as top five overall picks. So Forbes would be the steal of the group if actually acquired at #35.

Forbes is a 6’3″/220lb, well-built, former two-way player with athletic movements and already touching triple digits. And, counter to Seth Hernandez being old for a high school player, Forbes is young for a college draft-eligible player. Patrick will turn 21 on July 11 this year…two days before the first night of the draft. This probably matters for teams like Seattle. They drafted Jurrangelo Cijntje last year when he was only one month past his 21st birthday.

It’s a mild disappointment not to get a lefthander from our first pick, but just like the general consensus is trending toward “the top ten of this class is not strong”; the consensus also believes this class has decent depth and is strong in lefthanded pitching throughout.

#2.57 – LHP, Iowa, Cade Obermueller

Speaking of LHP…as I’ve been trying to formulate my backwards-forward draft modeling; in order to pass on the LHP that fill out the top 10 overall of this draft, I need to feel comfortable with who I can get later on. Obermueller is one of the guys I’ve landed on. He’s only listed 6’0″/170lbs, and he’s probably shorter in reality, but the stuff looks like a Seattle kind of guy. The fastball is up to 98mph, and there are other things in the profile that look like our analytics.

#3.91 – OF, George Mason, James Quinn-Irons

I hadn’t looked at JQI before I wrote my first Mariner mock last month, but once I did; I had to find a way to draft him. This is a guy that is 6’5″/230lbs, he plays a very strong defensive centerfield, he has hit 16 HR with 85 RBI in 61 games this year, he’s gotten on-base at a .523 clip, AND he’s stolen 36 bags in 43 attempts. That sounds like five tools to me.

Of all the touted Seattle prospects on our farm right now; there are almost no outfielders other than Laz Montes. If we could draft a fast-moving college outfielder now, by the end of the 2026 season, Randy Arozarena will be a free agent, and Victor Robles will have a club option to be picked up (or not).

#4.122 – RHP, Abilene Christian, Dominick Reid

Reid is a 6’3″/201lb righty starter that transferred from Oklahoma State to Abilene this year to, presumably, get more opportunity in the rotation rather than in the bullpen. He’s got a 3.36 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9 in 15 starts.

#5.152 – RHP, Baylor, Gabe Craig

It’s kind of tough to find relief pitchers for the baseball draft because there are so many schools and even more pitchers, but no great way to filter for just relief innings. When I see any kind of reference to a good reliever; I try to make a note of the name to research him when I can, if not immediately. Craig is one of those names. Once I heard his name, I checked for his tape and his statline, and he was instantly the top reliever in my pitching metric. Listed 6’5″/209lbs; Craig has the prototypical build. His mechanics and stuff all looked good once I found some tape of him. The only yellowflag was that he will be 24 years old the week before the draft. I’m not sure this matters that much, as Seattle drafted a few over-aged college relievers just last year (including 24 y/o Charlie Beilenson in the 5th round). If we need to make some bonus slot room, this is the first spot we can save a good chunk.

#6.182 – 3B, Cincinnati, Kerrington Cross

Both Cross and Boston Smith would be candidates for underslot deals as potential senior-sign guys. I’ve basically ignored the prep players in this mock that might need overslot money, so I don’t really feel the need to worry about underslotting anyone either. Everybody is simply getting slot.

Cross is a 6’0″/215lb infielder that hit .396/.526/1.173 with 12 HR, 50 BB, 35 SO, and 15 SB this year. I’m, honestly, a bigger fan of his intelligence and leadership than his statline, and I still like his statline.

#7.212 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola

I had Coppola in my previous mock, but his positioning might have been too high for his age and injury redflags. Plus, he was touched up a bit in his most-recent CWS start. In the 7th round, he looks more like Seattle’s 2024 draftee from the 11th round, Christian Little, who was also a once highly-touted pitcher from an SEC school whose college career never managed to take solid footing.

Coppola is a 6’8″/245lb southpaw whom has only managed a total of 49.1 innings pitched across his four-year college career, but whose stuff has earned him a 2.53 ERA, 0.984 WHIP, and 18.1 SO/9 when he has managed to pitch this year. If he falls this far, Coppola is the ideal type of high-reward player you’d love to get with a low-risk pick like this. He may end up a lights-out, high-leverage reliever and that will help him maintain his health.

#8.242 – C, Texas, Rylan Galvan

Behind Cal Raleigh there’s only Harry Ford and then Josh Caron as catchers on Seattle’s top 30 prospect list. So I’m spending another top 10 pick on a catcher. Galvan strikes me as a guy that our pitching staff will love to throw to. Great receiving/throwing/leadership skills. The bat is okay at .296/.452/1.065 with 15 homers last year.

#9.272 – RHP, Rice, Davion Hickson

I’ve been trying to look at some of the things that Seattle might have seen in 4th rounder Bryce Miller, 6th rounder Bryan Woo, 12th rounder Logan Evans that led them to draft them, and for them to make it to MLB in fairly short order. I don’t know that I have it nailed, but Hickson is a guy that popped for me as a potential pitcher in that vein. Listed 6’2″/208lbs with 3.82 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, and 11.1 SO/9 this year.

#10.302 – 2B, Georgia State, Kaleb Freeman

I had Georgia’s Robbie Burnett in a similar place in my previous mock, but after digging a bit deeper I realized that Burnett has primarily been playing LF this year for the Bulldogs. Freeman has been playing mostly 2B (with some RF) for Georgia State. He can switch-hit and for the year slashed .349/.504/1.236 with 16 HR, 61 BB, 57 SO, and 15 SB.

#11.332 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks

Hawks has a similar story to recent #1 overall pick Paul Skenes. Both started at the Air Force Academy, both transferred to an SEC school, both showed dominance in their respective roles for said SEC school. Hawks has been exclusively a reliever posting a 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 8 saves in 18 appearances.

#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney

This late in this mock, I’m kind of looking to fill some holes and draft some positions/profiles I may not have added up to this point. So I was looking for a 1B with some power and I found Ankeney. Listed 6’4″/235lbs, Beau built on a pretty solid 2024 season at Grand Canyon University after transferring to Loyola where he hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR, 69 RBI, 30 BB, 53 SO in 57 games. His batspeed really caught my eye.

#13.392 – 3B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez

I had Velazquez in my previous mock. I’m moving him down a few rounds because I’m still not seeing him getting much buzz. He’s a senior-sign player that will be 23 in September. He was previously riding the bench for Vanderbilt, but transferred to Austin Peay to get more opportunity. And this year, with that opportunity, he hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR, 32 BB, 32 SO.

#14.422 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book

I have two LHP that showed up back-to-back on my pitching metric with nearly identical profile. Book and Jordan Gottesman, from Northeastern, are both 22 year old lefthanded starting pitchers getting by more on pitchability than present stuff. But I like a guy that can control the zone that we can try to build the velo with.

Book’s 2025 went: 3.53 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 12.7 SO/9, 2.1 BB/9. And he’s got the more prototypical pitcher frame at 6’4″/215lbs.

#15.452 – CF, Dallas Baptist, Nathan Humphreys

Another guy that is already 22 years old and a senior-sign. Humphreys plays a very strong defensive centerfield. He hit .353/.457/1.135 with 17 HR, 38 BB, 38 SO, and 21 SB. It’s a nice, well-rounded profile with a lefthand profile. After writing the bulk of this mock I found a new source that had Humphreys going way earlier than this, which makes sense. His profile shouldn’t last this long. But I can’t fit him in earlier in this version.

#16.482 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith

I had Smith in my previous Mariner mock, but in an earlier round. After seeing more of him during the CWS regionals, and not seeing his stock go up; I’ve decided to wait on him a bit. Listed 5’10″/195lbs; Smith has hit .330/.498/1.269 this year with 26 HR, 57 BB, 52 SO, and 16 SB. And he’s a lefty-hitting catcher. Like Humphreys, I would tend to think we need to pick him earlier than this.

#17.512 – RF, Kent State, Jake Casey

At this point, most draft big board listings have run out of players after naming 500. So I’m really just guessing approximate draft value from names that I pinned at some point and who aren’t listed in the 500.

My first choice in these last four is kind of a superstitious pick, of which most of the story I’m not going to get into. Suffice to say…Casey is a 6’2″/190lb lefty-hitting OF that hit .356/.500/1.236 this year with 17 HR, 37 BB, 56 SO, and 20 SB. He is also a legacy player being the son of former all-star 1B, Sean Casey.

#18.542 – RHP, Texas, Max Grubbs

Grubbs is a nice little reliever for the Longhorns. 6’1″/200lbs posting a 2.84 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 9.6 SO/9, 2.2 BB/9 with 5 saves this year.

#19.572- RHP, Coastal Carolina, Ryan Lynch

Lynch is a bullpen piece for CCU with closer experience. He transferred there after stops in Bellingham and Bellevue Community College. Lynch is an Everett, WA native standing 6’4″/234lbs with a 0.59 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 8 saves season line.

#20.602- SS, Bryant, Drew Wyers

Seattle has a pretty strong farm system full of shortstop prospects, so I didn’t really make drafting one a priority. But it’s still important to draft one to fill out your minor league roster(s).

Wyers is listed 6’2″/200lbs and hit .407/.521/1.231 this year with 11 HR, 26 BB, and only 17 SO in 45 games.

And, since I “traded” away our first round pick for the #4 pick next year…here are some potential high-end 2026 draft targets:

UCLA SS Roch Cholowsky

Highschool SS Jacob Lombard.

Highschool SS Grady Emerson.

Highschool OF Brady Harris.

Georgia Tech OF Drew Burress.

Coastal Carolina RHP Cameron Flukey.

Florida RHP Liam Peterson.

Florida Atlantic LHP Trey Beard.

North Carolina draft-eligible sophomore RHP Ryan Lynch.

Highschool LHP Gio Rojas.

I already think that group looks better than 2025. Good luck getting Jerry Dipoto and crew to recognize this, and/or to have the stones to do it.

Mariner draft week mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re down to four days before the beginning of the 2024 MLB Draft, and I’m probably not going to have much time to do long-form writing the closer we get. So this is probably my last chance to get a full-mock update in.

Mariners’ scouting director Scott Hunter had a little press huddle sometime last week in which he gave some thoughts on the state of this draft class. A lot of what he said we already knew: there’s maybe 10 top of the first round locks (I put it at 12), which means starting around #11-13 we’re into a second tier of players, which surely affects Seattle at #15.

In my mock last week I pivoted to an underslot player in the 1st, to allow for buying overslot names rounds 2-5, and Hunter discussed (unprompted) that this might be a thing for Seattle this year.

He also talked about high school pitching. I think the greater press’ take that his thoughts point to the M’s drafting a prep pitcher in the 1st round is mistaken. I don’t think that’s really what he said, and it’s not what this draft class allows for. There are maybe four HS pitchers with first round projection, only three of which will probably still be available when Seattle is on the clock. That isn’t the way to hack this draft. Hunter specifically talks about prep pitching available from the back half of the first round through the 50’s…to me, this means from pick #16 to pick #59. This means it misses Seattle at #15, but is very much in play for Seattle at their second round pick at #55. This part I buy.

And if you look at mlb’s draft board, they have HS pitchers listed top 15 like this:

15- LHP Cam Caminiti

After the top 15 overall, they have prep pitchers listed like this:

16- RHP William Schmidt
19- RHP Ryan Sloan
30- LHP Kash Mayfield
36- RHP Braylon Doughty
41- LHP David Shields
46- RHP Joey Oakie
51- RHP Bryce Meccage
52- LHP Dasan Hill
56- RHP Dax Whitney
57- LHP Boston Bateman
58- RHP Levi Sterling
59- RHP Chris Levonas

See what I mean? One in the top 15. Two from 16-30. Two from 31-45. SEVEN from 46-60, including four after M’s pick at #55. This tracks.

#1.15 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman

I opened with Holman last week, and I’m sticking with him to head into the draft. In fact, I found a piece of data in the last few days that only reaffirms my plan: Holman is primarily thought of as a 92-94mph fastball guy, but in 2023 when he was pitching for Alabama, a prominent college baseball outlet published that he touched 98mph. His mix of present stuff, 6’4″/201lb frame, and a history of touching higher velocity in SEC play, leads me to believe he’s gonna to tick up in the not-so-distant future.

And my previously stated plans to sign Holman, the #45 overall player, to an underslot bonus deal at #15, still holds. I did do some research on underslot deals in the 2023 draft, and it was rare to find discounts of over $1mill, like I had hoped. Brock Wilken signed for about -$871k underslot as the #18 overall pick, but for the most part deals were closer to $600k underslot. The slot at #15 is $4,880,900. If we can get Holman for $4mill even…awesome, but I think $4.2mill might be more realistic. Still, that would pocket us $680,900 for future picks.

#2.55 – RHP, Blackfoot HS, Dax Whitney

This is, obviously, the big change from last mock. I was previously thinking of a college bat in the 2nd round like when they got Tyler Locklear in 2022. But, really, in 2022 Seattle had two picks in the 2nd, and the other ended up being prep RHP Walter Ford.

Whitney is a pretty late-riser in this cycle as a guy coming from the rarely-scouted baseball state of Idaho. But he’s a 6’5″/193lb righty with a present fastball sitting 94mph, but touching 96. Adding muscle to his long, lean frame should really help him bump that up to closer to a 97mph regular velo, that can touch 99. He has two current secondaries that are pretty legit, and is working on his changeup to eventually give him a true four-pitch mix.

Whitney has a college commitment to Oregon State. The bonus slot for #55 is $1,641,800. Last year, Cleveland signed Alex Clemmey away from college for $2.3mill at pick #58, and Pittsburgh got Zander Mueth signed for $1.8mill at pick #67. In 2022, the Cubs needed $3.01mill to secure Jackson Ferris at pick #47 as the high end, but other prep pitchers signing that year included: 46- Jacob Miller ($1.70mill), 50- Jackson Cox ($1.85mill), 57- Cole Phillips ($1.50mill), 74- Walter Ford ($1.25mill). I think we should be able to get Whitney away from OSU for $2mill, which would be $358,200 overslot. Running total gives us $322,700 savings.

#3.91 – LHP, IMG Academy, Blake Larson

While doing diligence to see if there are any other prep LHP that I really like (after Caminiti), I came upon Larson in the last few days. I hadn’t watched him before that, but he’s 6’3″/180lbs with a present fastball touching 96mph with run. There is a very legit, high-spin slider as secondary offering, and he’s working on a change as third offering. I love the stuff, it’s more a question of: can he get more refined, and lock in better control as he matures?

Larson has a college commitment to TCU. He played his junior year of high school in Iowa, but this year he moved down to Florida and the prestigious IMG Academy on the cusp of the draft. Why would you make a huge geographic move in your senior year of high school for any reason other than increasing your draft profile? Meaning: you want to be drafted and you want to sign. The M’s bonus allotment for this pick is $812,900. I’m going to use all of my savings so far, and dip into some future money, to get Blake up to a $1.2mill bonus. We’re now $64,400 in the hole.

#4.121 – 1B/DH, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in this class. MLB has him as a 5th-6th round player…likely because, even though he has history of playing catcher and outfield in college, he’s limited to 1B/DH going forward. So, I’m hoping to steal him here in the 4th and create a nice, high-floor base for the M’s 2024 hitting class. Collins is also almost 23 years old, so he should be signable to an underslot deal. I’m hoping for $500k, which would save an additional $94,900. Current savings: $535,600.

#5.154 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

It’s an intended strategy to take pitching earlier than hitting in this draft. A) The Seattle farm is stronger on bats at the moment, B) the way this draft stacks up, the most projectable bats are either in the top 20 overall, or available after the 10th round. So, in theory, we should be able to pay premium prices on arms, and then circle back to bats later-ish. And it’s not unheard of for Seattle to do this. In 2019 they drafted five consecutive pitchers to start the draft, and eight of their first nine as pitchers. Five of those eight arms have made it all the way to MLB.

Dohm, like the pitching version of Collins, has some of the best pitching metrics in this draft for me versus SEC competition. There are some questions about health, which led to only 29.1 innings pitched this year. But I love the frame, I love the stuff, and I love the control. He’s 21 years old with eligibility remaining, but hopefully a full-slot deal here in the 5th gets him signed.

#6.183 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

I’ve had LMG in prior mocks, and usually in later rounds, but I’m placing him earlier in this one because his talent warrants it, and because I currently need a senior signing to get back in the black for overall bonus money. We’ll call it a $125k bonus. We are now back to $139k underslot overall.

#7.213 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

More senior signings. Cranton is a pure reliever with a fastball that is already 98mph and has awesome metrics, to go with another plus pitch in his slider. Already 23 years old, but you’ll see this repeatedly in this draft class due to being at the back end of the Covid class. Relievers, especially, with this kind of present stuff should move really quickly through the minors. Another $125k bonus senior signing.

#8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar has a pretty high-floor profile for another senior sign candidate. Primarily a shortstop in college, his profile probably moves him to 2B as a pro. Third consecutive $125k signing gives us $364k in underslot savings.

I’ve sort of earmarked the 9th round to be an overslot pick. I don’t know if it’s a highschool player, but it might be. There are definitely two college relievers with multiple years of eligibility remaining that I’m eying here. Actually, as I’m writing this, I’m wondering if I split the difference on the bonus surplus I have; could I get both of my guys in the 9th and 10th? Let’s try it.

#9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

Walters is recently returned from Tommy John surgery, but came back with pretty impressive results posting a 1.024 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9 and only 1.3 BB/9 in 13.2 innings pitched in relief. Giving him even split of the bonus surplus remaining means he gets $418,450.

#10.303 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a returning entrant in my mock drafts who I’ve been over-drafting his draft projection due to the fact he’s technically a redshirt sophomore after missing 2023 with an injury. But he’s draft eligible at 21 years old. I had been planning, in previous mocks, to get him around 4th-6th round where the slot bonus ranges from $594k down to $334k, with the idea of giving him $400k at whichever round he ended up. The $418k I have left is perfect.

Zsak made 6 starts this year across his work at Rutgers and two made in the Cape league, in addition to 15 appearances in relief. I’d love to try him as a starter for as long as possible, knowing that his stuff will definitely tick up if we move him back to the pen as means to get him to the show faster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

Picks 11 and 12 of this mock I’m going away from pure stuff and looking for high-pitchability, innings-eaters. Kmatz presently maxes out about 93mph, but he knows how to maximize it up in the zone, and he has one of the prettiest curveballs I’ve seen in the class. And he controls it beautifully.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia, again, doesn’t wow you with velo, but he’s doing enough with pitch sequencing and control, that he managed 11.6 SO/9 in his first year pitching for a Power 5 school. He’s got a big 6’4″/218lb frame, too, that lets you dream on more velo down the road.

#13.393 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Part of my strategy in this draft is to stock up on arms early, and find those sneaky hitters in late rounds (and undrafted free agency…which should be deep this year) that are probably small-school, but have great hit metrics (think in terms of Ben Williamson, Brock Rodden, etc). Shallenberger is at the top of that list. He reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence in that nothing he does is super fluid, and maybe you even go as far as to say “awkward”, but he’s a gamer. He hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and 45 BB to 28 SO.

#14.423 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a senior of almost 24 years old, but he hit .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI with premiere exit velocity and a penchant for clutch hitting in the CWS. He plays a very solid defensive 3B, as well, and he can switch-hit.

#15.453 – 1B, Morehead St, Roman Kuntz

The Seattle farm is chock full of middle-infield potential thanks to multiple years of drafting there early and often, so I’m looking to take multiple stabs this draft at the corners of the infield. Kuntz is listed at 6’3″/180lbs, but looks way bigger on tape. Already a 23-year-old this March; Roman hit .366/.482/1.341 with 33 HR, 100 RBI, and 50 BB to 34 SO.

#16.483 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Ryan Ure

This is a pure velo play. Ure has a ton of redflags with injury history and lack of control, but he’s been up to 103mph from the left side. Well worth the risk this late, and it’s very likely another team has risked it earlier.

#17.513 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is a guy that really caught my eye in the recent MLB Draft League. At Arizona this year he was 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, but in the draft league he’s ticked up to 3.45 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 14.4 SO/9. The breaking ball is pretty special.

#18.543 – RHP, William & Mary, Carter Lovasz

I found Lovasz just doing diligence on relievers. He’s got a good frame at 6’3″/185lbs, and I don’t have numbers on his present velo, but he’s definitely using it well up in the zone to the tune of 3.12 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 7 saves last year.

#19.573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

If there’s one thing in this draft that I wanted to do, but that the player pool really didn’t convince me to do, was to draft one or two higher end catchers. I still think Harry Ford ends up traded before the deadline, and there’s not a ton of talent in the farm. I wanted to find a catcher that has some power, has some defense, has some athleticism. Schiavone ticks a lot of that. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 9 SB, and a 38% caught stealing rate. Yeah, that’ll do.

#20.603 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

This pick could really be anything. I’ve got a first baseman in Tyler Macgregor I really like. I’ve got an outfielder named Ryley Preece that I think has some nice tools. I went with Vogel because he’s got good power at a premium defensive position. He hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16 SB.

I kinda recognize that this draft feels counter-intuitive to the state of the Mariners. But, really, the state of the MLB team and the state of the farm system are not the same. Whereas, the MLB roster is at a massive deficit on hitting, and the star of the show is our big league pitching…it’s pretty opposite on the farm. There is quite a deficit of pitching. We have a few starters that are out-performing draft position, with a few more that have been on longterm IL, but we have next to nothing exciting or MLB-quality coming out of our respective bullpens. And we’ve been getting decent early returns on middle-round college bats (Locklear, Williamson, Rodden, Schreck, which would work really well with this draft class.

This draft, more than any recent draft, is so dependent on how Seattle manages their first pick. If they can do something smart, and strategic, with that pick; they could be en route to a very interesting class.

Mariner mock July

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’m writing this on Sunday, June 30th; the MLB Draft round one will begin two weeks from today. There’s been an ongoing theme of this draft cycle for at least a month now that Seattle, drafting at #15 overall, is going to miss out on the true 1st round talents of this draft, which is only about 12 players deep. I’ve been doing mocks as if one of those guys will (miraculously) fall to them. Maybe that will happen, but I’m feeling more and more anxious that it won’t. So this mock represents my big pivot to a more plausible scenario.

The top 12 names go, in no order: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone, Braden Montgomery, Nick Kurtz, JJ Wetherholt, James Tibbs, Konnor Griffin, Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage, Cam Caminiti. If any of these guys is available at #15; you just don’t think about it, and you take him. We need guys like Bryce Rainer, Christian Moore, and maybe like a Seaver King to be the “upsets” in the top 14 to get a 12 to us.

The more I’ve settled into the likely outcome that a top 12 fall doesn’t happen, the more I’ve come to think that maybe the hack of this draft for Seattle is: to accept they aren’t getting a “1st round talent”, and pivot to an idea that the next tier of names is like 30 players deep of a very similar grade, and to draft one that will allow you to backlog some significant slot bonus money by signing an underslot deal, which then allows them to try to make moves on bigger talents on day two.

When Seattle acquired Gregory Santos from the White Sox, part of the package going to Chicago was the #68 overall pick, which carries a bonus pool allotment of $1,197,200. I look at that figure and think that’s kind of the minimum amount I’d like to try to save in any combo of 1st-2nd round signings, and siphon that to day-two picks.

Looking at Seattle’s draft history under Jerry Dipoto…they have been ELITE at drafting and developing college pitching to completion as MLB players. They have NEVER graduated a high school pitcher from prospect to their own successful pro player, and they don’t even have any candidates currently above high-A level (*edit: as I was writing this, the news broke that 2021 high school 3rd rounder Michael Morales was promoted to AA), so they are at best extremely slow at developing them. The report card is still incomplete on how successful they’ve been drafting and developing prep hitters through the farm, but with Harry Ford and Cole Young doing decent at AA, plus promising early returns on Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Aidan Smith…I don’t think you’d hesitate if the right guy was there. Perhaps the second-best draft/develop category for Seattle has been college hitters with Evan White winning an MLB Gold Glove, Kyle Lewis winning ROY, Cal Raleigh being the best power-hitting catcher in baseball, and MLB at-bats from Cade Marlowe, Austin Shenton (for Tampa), Zach Deloach (for CHW), and now Tyler Locklear. These are things you HAVE to consider if you’re Jerry and Scott Hunter. Self-scout.

The current media buzz on Seattle’s interest(s) at #15 is basically useless. Jim Callis, in his mock from last week, has Seattle drafting college switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje. He specifies, “the Mariners would like to restock their pitching supply”…awesome, they do need to do that. Callis continues, “(Trey) Yesavage is the dream here”…great, he’s pitcher 3 of 3 on my board, no complaints. He mentions Cam Caminiti before Cijntje, but Cam is off the board at #13 to San Francisco, which is one of the most consistent mock picks I see across all drafts. BUTTTT….in his mock from June 6th, Callis had Seattle drafting college 3B Cam Smith, but M’s are quote, “pursuing every demographic.”

Local writer that I really enjoy, Joe Doyle, on May 28 had Seattle draft prep LHP Kash Mayfield, and writes that, for Seattle, “it seems to be pitching, pitching, pitching.” Jump forward to June 25th, Boyle pivots to prep athlete Theo Gillen as his pick at #15, and his quote is, “Seattle seems to prefer college performers at this spot.”

There’s a lot of contradiction and inconsistency there at first blush. But, if you really break it down…Callis’ two most recent projections are 1) college pitcher, 2) “every demographic”. Doyle’s two theories are 1) pitching, 2) college. You can actually, potentially, draw a through-line there that becomes a college pitcher. Kinda interesting.

1.15 – RHP, Louisiana State, Luke Holman

If I remember correctly, I had Holman in my first mock of the year. That was when he was at the apex of his buzz this year. That faded a bit as the season progressed, but he’s landed at #45 overall. Just for reference, the other names mentioned by national media in mocks and their MLB rankings: #14 Cam Smith, #19 Ryan Sloan, #25 Cijntje, #27 Slade Caldwell, #28 Gillen, #30 Mayfield. I mean, Seattle is probably reaching on their pick at #15. Why not get a discount on that reach?

Holman ranks as a top-10 pitcher in this class in my pitching metric. He’s not as hot of a name as Hagen and Chase because those guys throw 99mph and struck out 17 per nine each and showed great control. Valid. He’s also not as hot a buzz as guys like Cijntje and Brody Brecht as well, but they only seem to be ranked higher than Holman because of velo. Not valid. I think their projectability is actually less than his.

Holman is a 6’4″/201lb starter that presently touches 94mph. So he’s not starting from that bad of a place velo-wise. And the frame is great to add some strength in time. There’s a decent amount of pitchers, like Degrom or Cole, that win Cy Young’s with elite velo. But there’s this entire pocket of guys that do it with control, secondaries, and pitchability. Scherzer at the high end, but I’m also looking at Shane Bieber and, especially, Corbin Burnes.

Burnes was a 6’3″/245lb starter when he came out of St Mary’s in the 2016 Draft. His fastball was in the 92-95 range and MLB ranked him the #39 prospect pre-draft, and he fell to the Brewers at #111 overall in the early 4th round. His stat line in his last year in college ran: 2.48 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 10.6 SO/9, 3.64 SO/BB. Luke Holman this year at LSU: 2.75 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 12.5 SO/9, 3.85 SO/BB. I like this profile more than the national media. If you don’t think you can get him at #55; I kinda don’t mind doing this at #15 with the underslot caveat.

Bonus slot for the #15 pick is $4,880,900. Bonus value at #45 (where Holman is projected) is only $2,072,800. If you split the difference, you’re at $3,476,850…call it $3.5mill, and you’ve pocketed $1,380,900 for future use.

Backup plan: similar story, but I like going underslot on prep RHP Joey Oakie. He’s literally next on MLB’s big board behind Holman at #46. Something about his mechanics and stuff reminds me of Bryan Woo. I think $3.5mill would get him out of his commitment to Iowa U.

2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

This pick, to me, is so similar to the pick of Tyler Locklear at 2.58 in 2022. Super advanced hit metrics but dragged down big boards by his, presumed, defensive positional limitations. But when you dig into his full profile…he’s not too far removed from being a left-handed hitting catcher (2 starts at C in 2024, 13 starts in 2023). He’s also been athletic enough at 6’3″/236lbs to play 20 games in the outfield in his Georgia career.

But the carrying tool is the bat. He hit LEADOFF for the Bulldogs for most of the year to the tune of .354/.574/1.346, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 56 BB, 32 SO. The RBI number probably would have been higher if he wasn’t hitting leadoff. By comparison, Player X in college: .374/.469/1.128, 14 HR, 60 RBI. That’s Pete Alonso.

In theory, this is a guy that would move fast through the minors as a 1B/DH. Could he debut straight out of spring training in 2026? Just as the contract for Mitch Garver is over and not renewed.

This pick is also somewhat reminiscent of the 2nd round pick of Ben Williamson last year, in that Williamson was drafted at #2.57 overall as a 22-year-old Senior, who signed for -$836,500 underslot. Collins is a 22-year-old Senior, and the bonus slot at #55 is $1,641,800. Coming from an SEC school, I don’t know that you underslot him down to $600k like they did for Williamson, but keeping him at a $1.2mill bonus would still save you $400k+ to use on day two.

These first two picks have saved Seattle a combined $1,822,700 of bonus pool.

Backup plan: any number of slight reaches on college pitchers like RHP Daniel Eagen, LHP Ryan Prager, RHP Ryan Forcucci who score very high on the pitch projection metric.

3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

In 2023 Seattle drafted Tommy John patient and Wake Forest RHP Teddy McGraw at #3.92. They signed him for $136k underslot. Dohm is not currently recovering from TJ, but he was limited in 2024 to only 29.1 innings due to some kind of injury recovery/management.

When healthy, Dohm is up to 98mph with a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9 and only 1.2 BB/9. This profile feels more like what Seattle used to target in the Gilbert, Kirby, Hancock era.

Dohm has college eligibility remaining, so I’m not sure we go underslot on him, but we have enough bonus saved that we could go overslot on him if we really needed to. For now, I’m allotting him exactly slot money.

Backup plan: I think there’s a grouping of prep pitchers in this range that are very interesting including LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, LHP Mason Russell, RHP Jackson Barberi, LHP Mason Brassfield.

4.121 – 3B, Central Bucks East HS, Chase Harlan

In 2023, Seattle had the three picks in the first round which became the three high school hitters. But subplot to that was that they went back to high school hitter in the 4th round with an overslot deal to OF Aidan Smith. Smith was MLB’s #78 ranked player, and Seattle got him at #124. The slot where he was drafted was $531k and they signed him for $1.2mill. I love this move at this range. There’s inevitably a pocket of high school players that wanted second round money, but just hadn’t found a fit with a team.

Harlan is a bit of an arbitrary pick here. I don’t know that he will be on the board still (MLB ranks him #112), I don’t know that he will be willing to sign away from commitment to Clemson. Harlan is young for the class (actually turns 18 next week), but he’s already 6’3″/210lbs and has some of the biggest shoulders I’ve ever seen on a high schooler. He posted some of the top 5 hardest hit EV’s at the recent MLB Combine against a mix of college and high school players. But on top of the brute strength tool, I believe I found that he only struck out 5 times in the entire HS season (about 7% K-rate). So he’s potentially pretty disciplined, as well.

This is definitely overslot, but it’s just a question of how much. I’m gonna earmark an even $1.5mill to get him signed.

Backup plan: overslotting a different high school player that has fallen from higher ranking.

5.154 – C, Bishop Gorman HS, Burke-Lee Mabeus

I sort of have it in my head that Harry Ford is not long for the organization. He will be the biggest piece of the biggest trade Seattle is going to need to make in the next few weeks. So, I’d like to find some youth at the catching position to go with the savvy, defensive receiver I will add from the college ranks later this mock.

Mabeus is a 6’3″/210lb, switch-hitting prep catcher with a commitment to Oregon. He’s ranked #159 overall by MLB.com, so the positioning makes sense, and it’s just a question of signability. Again, we can offer him probably $1mill overslot no problem, but we might get it done with about $700k extra. I will call it a $1mill total bonus for ease of tracking.

I really love both swings from Burke-Lee, and we’ve had success with SH catchers recently, and technically we did draft Adley Rutschman out of high school back in 2016 when he was committed to an Oregon college.

Backup plan: I still like local high school SS Adam Haight.

6.183 – RHP, William and Mary, Nate Knowles

I have a hunch that Knowles will be highly sought after by the Seattle analytics room. He’s only 6’0″/205lbs, but he’s young for the class as a 20-year-old Junior, and he’s doing stuff with pitch metrics that are intriguing. His season line was tremendous: 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9.

7.213 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

It’s a bit of a priority for me to find A) some kind of LHP starting options to add to a roster that is currently filled by five RHP starters in a home park that you should probably want as many LHP as possible, B) some high-octane, fast-moving relievers as the entire farm is woefully inept out of the ‘pen right now. Zsak is potentially both.

Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb southpaw with only one year of college experience, but is draft eligible as a guy turning 21 two days before the draft. His college season went 4.11 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9 in 35.0 innings out of the bullpen, but he’s currently adding starting work in the Cape Cod League where he’s got 12 K’s in only 7.1 innings (14.7 SO/9) and a 0.955 WHIP. I feel like he’s about to take off, and I’m really eager to buy low on him. But with the amount of college eligibility he has left, it can’t be buying TOO low.

8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar is a 5’11″/180lb infielder that played exclusively shortstop for Austin Peay, but in two weeks of games in the Cape League he’s been mostly at 2B, with some time at 3B and SS, and looks to me like a future 2B is one of the best contact hitters in the country with only 14 SO in 237 AB’s (5.9%), while walking 27 times. The slash line went .405/.484/1.151 with 13 HR, 55 RBI, and 9×10 SB. He would be so reminiscent of last year’s 5th rounder Brock Rodden, who has been a very solid performer already reaching AA in his first full year of pro ball. Seattle needs high-floor, fast-moving position players like this to go with the fast-moving bullpen arms.

9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

The more time I’ve had post-NFL Draft; the more relievers I’ve been able to find. Over the last week I’ve actually been able to go roster by roster across three of the Power 5 conferences, and that process revealed two guys in this mock to me.

Walters is a 6’3″/194lb reliever recently returned to Miami from TJ surgery, and he threw 13.2 innings in 2024 across 15 appearances. ERA was 3.29, WHIP of 1.024, and 14.5 SO/9.

10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

Returning from previous mocks; Miller Green is a 6’5″/237lb outfielder that hit .393/.533/1.432 last year with 30 HR and 94 RBI. The ONLY reason he’s potentially available this late is because he will be 24 in September. In terms of just the bat; this is one of the best values available in the entire draft. If you have to pick him earlier, probably worth it. The floor here might be righthanded Luke Raley.

11.333 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

The M’s have done something pretty interesting the last 2-3 drafts wherein they devote most of their picks in the 10th-15th rounds to drafting college pitchers. I love this idea and I’m sticking with it in this mock.

Garcia is a 6’4″/218lb LHP that actually became of the highest-rated LHP starting pitchers in my pitch metric. He’s not ranked very high by draft outlets because of the lack of high-velo stuff. But this profile has proven effective in Tmobile Park. In 2024 he posted 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9 in 16 starts.

12.363 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher represents a very similar profile as Garcia, but from the righthand side. At 6’3″/195lbs, he had a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 with more pitchability than stuff.

13.393 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Ryan Ure

Ure is the polar opposite of his college teammate Garcia. He is all power stuff, with a pretty glaring lack of pitchability/control. At 6’8″/234lbs, Ure is a massive man with a massive 103mph fastball that led to a 17.2 SO/9 rate in his limited work in 2024, after missing all of 2023 with an injury. So there are multiple redflags here, but on day 3 of the draft it sort of doesn’t matter. If you can fix/maintain Ure’s arm; you potentially have years of Aroldis Chapman lite.

14.423 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

I sort of feel like this is much too late to be targeting Cranton, but I also feel that way about 90% of my picks in every mock. But I’m placing him a full round or two ahead of the national media ranking, and seeing if that’s enough compensation. Hunter is a 6’3″/210lb reliever at 23 years old who posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.7 SO/9 across 25 innings last year.

15.453 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is 6’1″/203lbs and this year posted a 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and 11.6 SO/9 out of the Arizona bullpen.

16.483 – SS, Murray State, Drew Vogel

These last five picks will all be position players, and could really be made in any order. I tried to find good athletes with well-rounded toolsets. I’m basically just taking them in an order based on defensive position priority. We start with the shortstop. Vogel is a 6’1″/195lbs SS that hit .331/.441/1.097 last year with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16×17 SB.

17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is a 6’2″/208lb catcher with above average catch and throw defense, that also hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI, 9×12 SB last year.

18.543 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a big, strong 6’3″/234lb 3B that can switch-hit to the tune of .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI and some very clutch hits in this year’s CWS.

19.573 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence. It’s not pretty, but it’s effective. At 6’2″/220lbs he hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and an incredibly disciplined 45 BB to 28 SO.

20.603 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler MacGregor

MacGregor is 6’3″/215lbs and hit .402/.484/1.270 with19 HR, 80 RBI and a very solid 15×17 SB from the firstbase position.

As we progress through the tail end of the Covid year era, there should be quite the class of undrafted players available this year. I’d look for the Mariners to sign another 6-10 guys that route after the draft ends.

Mariner Mock 3

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been looking at the Mariner farm system this week, and it seems to me, in theory, that the M’s early picks should be college hitters that can move fast through the minors to affect the major league lineup sooner, or high school pitchers that they can take their time to develop until the current ML rotation reaches the stage of being too expensive to maintain. I’m super hesitant to co-sign the high school pitching half because Seattle has never developed an in-house prep pitcher all the way to the majors. But my feelings have nothing to do with what Seattle will do.

Three recent national baseball mock drafts have differing general thoughts on what Seattle is targeting this year. One says they’re looking at prep pitching and prep hitting, one says they are looking at prep pitching and college pitching, and I think the third was simply naming names that included a majority of pitchers. The common denominator was pitching. So I’m kinda steering into those combined thoughts.

**The caveat to this is that there are about seven hitters that should go in the top 10 that, should one fall to 15, you break from the planned strategy.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This pick is threading the needle. There are a few HS arms that get top 20 consideration: LHP Kash Mayfield, RHP William Schmidt, RHP Ryan Sloan, but it’s really only Caminiti that I feel confident about. He’s a 6’2″/205lb southpaw that is young for the class as a reclassified 2025 17-year-old, who is already touching 98mph. There is some conversation about him playing two-ways as an outfielder, which I don’t care to try, but it does speak to the athleticism Cam brings. He’s got a four-pitch mix

The M’s don’t have any LHP in their current major league starting rotation, and their only LHP in their top 30 prospects is #29 Reid VanScoter, who has a pretty pedestrian 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. 7.33 SO/9, 2.44 SO/BB in AA ball, after being drafted in the 5th round in 2022. They need to take a bit more of a focus on adding some lefthanded pitching overall. I will attempt to do some of that for them in this mock.

#2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

I’ve had Collins in my mock before, but this time I’m moving him all the way up to the 2nd round. This reminds me a bit of 2022 when Seattle drafted a prep player in the 1st (Cole Young), and then came back to draft Tyler Locklear at #58 in the 2nd. It’s a very high-floor college bat to sort of protect you from the risk of the 1st round prep player. National media doesn’t have Collins ranked this high, but my numbers say he’s worth it.

Collins is a 6’3″/223lb lefthanded hitting first baseman for the Bulldogs. He has some experience as a catcher, including 2 games this year after 13 games at C in 2023, as well as a handful of appearances as a corner outfielder. I would draft him with the intention to return him back behind the dish on a more semi-permanent basis, until we find he isn’t capable as a receiver, knowing his future may veer more toward the 1B/DH side. I look at this like a lefty Pete Alonso, who was picked at #64 overall in 2016.

For the year, Collins has hit .360/.581/1.361 with 19 HR, 56 RBI, a great eye at the plate, and some pretty impressive bat-speed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

There has been some conversation recently about the pro’s and con’s of moving starting pitcher types, to the bullpen, and the possibility of moving them back to starting down the road. This came up after the news that Seattle has moved their fastest-moving pitching prospect, Logan Evans, from the AA rotation to their bullpen, with the open acknowledgment that this is with intention to fast-track Evans to the Show. Edwin Diaz came up in this conversation, Matt Brash came up, but I didn’t hear anyone talk about Garrett Crochet.

Crochet came out of college with 13 starts in 36 appearances for the Tennessee Volunteers. The White Sox moved him directly from the draft to the majors as a bullpen guy, and Crochet remained in the pen in 2021, missed all of 2022 injured, remained the bullpen in 2023, but has been exclusively a starting in Chicago in 2024. And he might end up the White Sox’ all star representative this year, he’s been that good.

So I’m not as worried as others about pigeon-holing a guy as one or the other, a starter or a reliever. I’m actively looking for prospects this draft that have experience with both, that we could fast-track to the bullpen, and then re-assess their role as our starting rotation gets expensive or injured or traded over a period of multiple years. Dohm is one of those guys.

Dohm is a 6’4″/210lb righty with 11 career starts in 40 appearances for the (other) Bulldogs. He has 6 starts in 8 appearances this year. He has missed some time due to some minor injuries, so his season line only accounts for 29.1 innings, but in that work he has posted a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9. If he had even a fraction of those numbers across, say, double the innings; we might be talking about a 1st round player. In shorter, relief outings; Dohm’s fastball has been up to 99mph. Secondary offerings include a slider he’s slowed down this year to give more sweep action, and added a tight curveball that I’m really liking in small sample. In interviews, it seems he’s still tinkering on a 4th offering…sometimes a change, sometimes a sinker…nothing concrete yet.

I would definitely give him the Logan Evans path after the draft: start or two in Arizona, three starts in Modesto, then skip the cold-weather Everett situation in September 2024 and April 2025 and move him straight to AA for 2025.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a holdover from previous mock(s), with a similar story to Dohm. He’s a 6’3″/185lb LHP with 4 starts, 15 relief appearances in 2024. He’s considered a redshirt freshman academically, but as a guy that will turn 21 this July; Zsak will be draft eligible. BUT…as a guy with a lot of college eligibility remaining; you might need to give him a pretty healthy signing bonus to get him out of that commitment. Hence: round 4.

The difference between Zsak and Dohm…I think Zsak is probably inevitably a reliever, whereas Dohm is probably a starter. But I’d give both the chance to start with the thought to convert to relief as per the needs of the big club.

#5.154 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a 6’3″/234lb, switch-hitting, 3B that I’ve come to find late in the process as he has impressed during the college post-season. He’s not a guy that my hitting metric flagged particularly high, so unlike many of my picks; he’s based more off the eye test. He’s a bit over-aged (but there is a lot of over-aged in this draft), he doesn’t walk very much, but he has some pretty elite exit velocity numbers. This is a player, and a draft range, where you can potentially save some signing bonus to re-direct elsewhere.

For the season, Mak has posted a .379/.442/1.178 slash with 20 HR, 76 RBI, 24 doubles in his first year with the Wolfpack, after four years at ECU.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’2″/200lb centerfielder that my hitting metric really loved. His season line goes: .401/.508/1.305 with 18 HR, 67 RBI, 20 doubles, and 11 stolen bases. And he plays a very solid CF. He looks similar to Mariner recent picks in rounds 6-10 from small schools like Brock Rodden, Hogan Windish, Bill Knight, Spencer Packard. Should give you a professional at-bat with some decent power, and solid defense. Another potential comp could be former Mariner Jake Fraley.

#7.213 – RHP, William & Mary, Nate Knowles

I had Knowles in my first mock draft of this season, then he kinda got squeezed out of my 2nd, and now he’s back for the 3rd. I’ve moved him up a few rounds because he’s a draft-eligible 20-year-old Junior at W&M that you may need to pay a bit more bonus money. I think he’s gonna be a guy that Seattle’s analytics group flag as a favorite. In terms of the basic stats, he has a 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9 across an even 80 innings this year. He kinda reminds me of bowling alley Bryce Miller.

#8.243 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

With Julio Rodriguez locked up to play centerfield for the next decade, and a whole farm system full of potential middle-infielders; Seattle really needs to find some prospect options at the corners of both infield and outfield. LMG is a big boy at 6’5″/237lbs that has played right field (and pitched) for the Governors this year. He hit .393/.533/1.432 with 30 HR, 94 RBI, and a sneaky 13×15 in SB.

#9.273 – 3B, Penn University, Wyatt Henseler

I hesitated slightly to take two third baseman in the top 10, but Seattle really doesn’t have much on the farm that is playing 3B. Tyler Locklear was drafted at 3rd, but quickly became an everyday 1B, and that is where he played in his MLB debut today. Ben Williamson plays a GREAT 3B, but he really doesn’t carry the power potential you’d like to see at a corner IF spot, and Seattle has already started tinkering with him at 2B. Then you have #27 prospect Luis Suisbel who plays about 47% at third, 27% first, 22% designated hitter at low A Modesto, but bat probably doesn’t carry him to the show.

Henseler actually reminds me of Williamson, but with more pop. He’s a solidly built 6’1″/215lb athlete hitting .360/.465/1.220 with 22 HR, 56 RBI and a dead-even walk-to-strikeout rate.

#10.303 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

In addition to hunting LHP this draft; I’m also willing to pay premium prices for bullpen velo. Gordon is a 6’5″/195lb closer for the Tigers touching 97mph presently with the frame to get that ticked up to triple digits in the near future. Season line goes: 4.46 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 11 saves in 21 appearances. He will only be 21 when his birthday hits this Friday, and so this may be a guy that needs somewhat overslot to sign away from his senior season.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

After paying premium prices for a few relief arms top 10; these next few rounds I’m going to be hunting value starting pitching. This is the range Seattle has really gone hard on pitching the last two years. This is where they found Logan Evans last year. This is where they drafted Troy Taylor and Tyler Cleveland in 2022.

The first of this group is the Beaver starter Kmatz. He’s 6’3″/210lbs with a fastball that currently only sits 92mph, but it plays up with his ability to locate it up, down, in, out. And then he has probably the best true curveball I’ve seen in this class. There’s a cutter, a change, and a slider, but none are shown enough to really get a feel for ranking order. On the year Kmatz is at a 3.29 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 9.7 SO/9, but as I’ve watched both of his postseason starts to this point; his strikeout rate is climbing as he has struck out or 4 or 5 of the first 6 batters in each game.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia is a pick I make while simply following the numbers. The results are above average, while most of the stuff is truly just average. He’s a 6’4″/218lb lefty with a 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, only 1.9 BB/9 while eating up a lot of innings (89.0) for the Cowboys. The upside here is probably Marco Gonzales, but in a situation where Marco is your fifth starter; you’d probably take that.

#13.393 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher is the righthanded version of Garcia. There’s something he’s doing that hitters are struggling with, and it leads to a line of a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 in 89.0 innings. He’s 6’3″/195lbs, and so there is some thought the frame could add some muscle, and with that maybe he adds some velocity.

#14.423 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger is sort of a bad body, 6’2″/220lb lefthanded outfielder, that is also one of the most disciplined hitters in the country with a strikeout rate somewhere in the 8th percentile. He’s hitting .381/.521/1.219 this year with 17 HR, 84 RBI. He also plays a solid leftfield, defensively. Not a sexy pick without a super high ceiling, but I like the high floor he brings.

#15.453 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

Wilson marks another shot at a lefthanded pitcher, but he brings a bit of a different profile. Not a starter, not a closer, Wilson is one of the top 2 or 3 lefthanded long-relievers in the country. He’s 6’3″/225lbs, coming up on his 24th birthday in December, and posted a 4.85 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, and 13.0 SO/9 in 27 relief appearances that netted 59.1 innings (an average of 2+ innings per appearance).

#16. 483 – RHP, Louisiana, JT Etheridge

Etheridge, with his big, high-cut 6’6″/225lb frame, kind of reminds me of former Mariner reliever Carter Capps. Or maybe if you squinted, and he performs absolutely unbelievably, you could pull a Jonathan Papelbon comp. The numbers here aren’t spectacular: 5.51 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9, but he’s also taking 14.3 SO/9 with a pretty good 96mph fastball and plus slider combination.

#17. 513 – SS, Drew Vogel

In one (or both) of my previous 2024 mocks; I was essentially forcing a shortstop pick. Because it’s generally good business to draft from the stereotypically best, most-athletic position group in the game. But Seattle is absolutely thick with shortstop prospects: Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Felnin Celesten, Dawel Joseph. The picks we make at shortstop now will more than likely be the second baseman of the future, or eventual trade bait. So here, I’m just looking to find a guy with decent present skills, and enough upside to take a flyer on.

Vogel is a 6’1″/195lb righty that has hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI and 16×17 in SB. He plays a pretty good defensive SS, as well.

#18. 543 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor has a similar story as Vogel, but at 1B. Good glove (arguably the best 1B defender I’ve found this class), good athlete (15×17 in SB), and enough hitting to possibly make it to the show. He’s listed 6’3″/215lbs and hitting .402/.484/1.270 from the left side, with 19 HR and 80 RBI.

#19. 573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is probably the second-best defensive catcher I’ve seen this year behind Grant Magill, but Schiavone is bringing a bit more hitting upside than Magill. I watched one of James Madison’s CWS regional games, and in that one game I got to see Schiavone hit a homerun, steal a base, and back-pick a runner off of SECOND base. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI and 9 SB this year. Oh, and his caught-stealing rate was north of 35%.

#20.603 – RHP, WKU, Mason Burns

Looking over the totality of the mock up to this point, I decided I wanted this last pick to be another pitcher to move the overall breakdown to 11 pitchers, 9 hitters. Burns is a 6’3″/215lb closer for the Hilltoppers, who (IIRC) led the country in saves with 15 in 28 appearances. Only a 4.00 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, and 10.0 hits allowed per 9; I’m including Burns for his respectable 13.0 SO/9, but even moreso because his personality kind of reminded me of Paul Sewald.

Mariner mock 2

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The Mariners changed their draft strategy maybe three years ago, their new process is failing in front of us, and nobody is really talking about it. And, no, I don’t mean the change they made where they started drafting prep hitters in the early rounds starting in 2021.

Seattle changed the way they evaluate pitching around that same time, and we’re facing a dearth of MLB-caliber pitching prospects across the farm system. Seattle holds 4 members of the MLB top 100 prospects, and all four are position players. Seattle’s top 30 team prospects are position players from #1-#11, and only six pitchers in their top 20. Two of the pitchers in the M’s top six pitching prospects (Teddy McGraw and Cole Phillips) have never thrown a pitch at the professional level due to injury, and a third (Taylor Dollard) has been sidelined with injury since April 2023. This means that there aren’t many reinforcements available in AAA, and very little in AA.

Taking a look at the Tacoma Rainiers roster…they have zero pitching “prospects” (with Emerson Hancock graduated from rookie status), and their starting rotation is comprised of 27 year old Jhonathan Diaz, 36 year old Casey Lawrence, 36 year old Dallas Keuchel, 35 year old Michael Mariot, 26 year old Levi Stoudt, and the recently demoted 25 year old Hancock.

The AA Arkansas Travelers roster holds #19 prospect Logan Evans (huge buzz and a 1.60 ERA over 39.1 innings), #21 Jimmy Joyce (recently returned from injury and holding an 8.31 ERA in 2 starts for Arkansas), #27 reliever Troy Taylor (only 3.0 IP after recent promotion from Everett), and #30 Reid VanScoter (3.70 ERA across 8 starts). It’s hard for me to see Joyce or VanScoter as anything much more than a Levi Stoudt level talent.

I don’t quite understand the change Seattle made in how they evaluate pitching prospects for the draft. My sense is that their old method targeted guys that had innate ability to “control the zone”. Guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard came out of college averaging 2.0, 0.6, 1.1, 1.3 walks per 9 innings respectively. In 2021, Bryce Miller came out averaging 5.9 BB/9. In 2023, their top pitching draftpick Teddy McGraw had 4.84 BB/9, 6th-rounder Brody Hopkins had 7.33 BB/9, 11th-rounder Brandyn Garcia 4.74 BB/9, and 12th-rounder Logan Evans was 3.49 BB/9.

So, they’ve stopped caring about control. What they’ve replaced control with; I’m not sure. Velo? Spin rate? IVB? Some combo of a couple things? Probably. Whatever it is; it makes it very difficult to replicate in home mock drafting.

In addition to the lack of pitching talent at the high levels of the minors; you should note that NONE of the guys I’ve mentioned so far were drafted by Seattle out of high school. The Dipoto regime has NEVER developed a pitcher from high school up to the majors across 8 draft cycles.

Their success rate on high school drafted position players isn’t much better. This is why, when I see Jim Callis’ recent MLB mock draft from a few days ago that has Seattle drafting prep shortstop Theo Gallen and includes a note that the M’s “also are kicking the tires on the top prep arms as well,” it kinda scares me. In no way, shape, or form, should Seattle be trusted to evaluate, draft, and develop a pitcher directly out of high school. Do some self-scouting guys. You suck at this.

I should also point out that Callis in 2023 mock drafts did, correctly, put Seattle on drafting Colt Emerson, and also projected they would draft three prep players with all of their three first round picks last year.

I don’t think I objected to that process last year as it was a very good draft for prep players. The eventual draft results in 2023 had 13 high school players drafted top 30 overall. This 2024 class the major outlets have zero prep players in the top 8, only 3 in the top 15 (where Seattle would pick), and only 9 projected in the top 30.

The other thing about high school players in 2024 that nobody is talking about; is the still-developing way NIL rights will affect the signability of prep guys. There has ALWAYS been a need for teams to go over-slot on high school draftees, but will those figures increase after another year of college baseball teams learning how to manipulate the NIL system to get their recruits to campus? If a top prospect can get $1mill in NIL going to campus; is he going to want $5mill to sign with MLB team directly out of HS? It’s a slippery slope.

Ultimately, although Callis’ intel may be correct on Seattle’s intentions; they may not be able to execute them due to lack of inventory, and cost to sign. They may be forced to pivot to drafting a college player. We should all be okay with this as this is a strong college class.

The top high school player this year is SS Konnor Griffin, who is an absolute monster at 6’4″/215lbs. There’s no way he falls to #15. The next two prep players on big boards are SS Bryce Rainer and RHP William Schmidt…neither of whom I like. The next guy up is LHP Cam Caminiti. I really like Cam, and Callis also noted in his mock that he “might not make it further than the Mariners at #15.” So there would appear to be interest on Seattle’s side, but insert previous caveat on the M’s inability to develop prep pitching.

Callis has Seattle taking a slight reach on #26 prospect, Texas prep MIF Theo Gillen, which we have to take seriously. I don’t love Gillen. There’s a neg on him that he doesn’t have the arm to stick at SS, and likely ends up at 2B. I also kinda don’t love the intangibles make-up on him. I would prefer to offer up SS Wyatt Sanford. He’s also a reach as the #35 player on the MLB board, but Sanford is one of the better defenders in the class, who should definitely stick at SS.

Just as a quick aside…is Seattle really going to draft a lefty-hitting high school shortstop for a third consecutive year?? In addition to the two highly rewarded international signees of the last two years: Felnin Celesten and Dawel Joseph. All of these acquisitions mean that four of Seattle’s top seven prospects are shortstops, and seven of their top sixteen players have some SS experience. That strategy works when drafting pitchers across a 3-4 year stretch, as you’re gonna need five starters in a rotation. But you can only start one shortstop. At some point, you’re moving like 3-4 of these guys to other positions or using them as trade bait. I don’t know.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This is not what I would do. I would draft the best college pitcher still available on my board because the M’s CAN develop that. This is a compromise of the intel that Jim Callis mentioned, filtered through the logic that Seattle is actually pretty well stocked-up on shortstop prospects, plus the knowledge that Seattle’s major league rotation is pretty well set until Luis Castillo’s contract gets closer to expiring in like 2027, and so the Mariners can afford to take a slower-developing arm. Plus, if one of the top 3-4 high school players were to fall to #15, it is more likely to be a pitcher, as MLB knows prep pitching is far more temperamental than prep hitting. The first prep arm drafted last year came off at #8 overall, and the second HS pitcher didn’t come off until #33 overall.

Caminiti is actually one of the younger players in this draft, as he won’t turn 18 until August, and re-classified from 2025 class to this year. This could also suggest a higher willingness to sign, rather than go to his college commitment at LSU. He’s trying to get SOMEWHERE a year earlier than he was supposed to.

He’s currently 6’2″/205 and touching 97mph from the southpaw side. He’s got a very good slider, and third and fourth offerings of change and curve (no order). In terms of high school pitcher, I feel a little better that this is a safer pick than most. Seattle might still fuck it up, but in my opinion Cam would be the best attempt at the worst strategy.

#2.55 – SS, Boswell HS, Sawyer Farr

My original plan was to take the best college pitcher available in the 1st, then to draft a prep shortstop in the 2nd…while researching for that strategy I found Sawyer, and I really like the profile. He’s a 6’5″/180lb shortstop that can switch-hit, and I love the intangibles. The fundamentals he has for all five tools are fantastic. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, and I think that’s a legit concern. Bonus slot for this pick is $1,641,900, and if Seattle can save enough in other rounds to bump that up to $2mill; I think they can get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi St, Nate Dohm

In my previous mock I had Seattle taking Dohm in the 4th round. I was a little concerned about Dohm’s health, as it had been some time since he had pitched, but as of today Dohm made a couple appearances for the Bulldogs on May 14th and again May 18th out of the bullpen. If he had pitched more innings this year at even a fraction of the efficacy he’s had in his limited work; we’d potentially be talking about a 1st round guy. So I’m glad to bump him up from the 4th round to the 3rd.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

This is an interesting one. I think Seattle should take some picks this year simply to target potential fast-moving bullpen arms. The 4th round may be high to start doing that, but Zsak is technically a redshirt freshman who will turn 21 (and therefore draft-eligible) on July 12th. So he’s got a TON of eligibility remaining, and it may take a decent bonus to sign him. Media outlets have him ranked as more of an 11th-15th round player on day 3 of the draft, so you could take a few different strategies to accomplish that. You could take him somewhere late on day 2 (rounds 8-10) and try to give him, say, $200k overslot money, or you could take him in an earlier round, give him $100k underslot for that round, but it still ends up more money than he’d get on day 3.

Performance-wise, Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb lefty with 4 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2024, posting a 4.11 ERA, 10.0 SO/9 and a 1.200 WHIP. You could try to take some time with him and develop him to start, but I think he might be MLB-ready by 2026 if you let him relieve.

#5.154 – RHP, Arkansas, Brady Tygart

Tygart is one of a few picks in this mock where I’m consciously going away from my own pitching metric, that no longer aligns with the M’s draft tendencies, and trying to latch onto something that Seattle IS using to identify their pitching picks. It’s a pretty big guess, though.

Tygart is a 6’2″/215lb starter this year for the Razorbacks. In 2022 he pitched as the team’s closer where some of his pitching stats actually looked better, including his SO/9 (12.2 as a closer in 2022, down to 10.5 as a starter in 2024). I think you keep him in the rotation in the immediate future, but you know the bullpen is also an option.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’1″/210lb, righty swinging, centerfielder hitting .413/.518/1.328 with 17 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 54 games. He checks a lot of boxes across all toolsets.

#7.213 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in the country this year, and even using a higher pick on him would be justified. I’m slotting him here as a senior-sign candidate. He’s 6’3″/236lbs, currently playing 1B but with some experience catching and playing outfield for Georgia, but the bat plays wherever. Hitting .361/.586/1.390 with 18 HR, 52 RBI and 50 BB; Collins is the Bulldog leadoff man setting the table ahead of phenom Charlie Condon. I’m not sure why Georgia has gone so far away from letting him catch, but the idea that there’s a power-hitting, lefthanded catcher is part of this profile is super intriguing for me.

#8.243 – 3B, Penn, Wyatt Henseler

Henseler is one of my favorite players in this class. He’s 6’1″/210lb righty that plays a great defensive third base. He’s been hitting .367/.475/1.259 with 21 HR, 51 RBI in 45 games in the Ivy League this year. He has a transfer commit to move on to Texas A&M for a graduate year, but he’s going to be 23 years old in August. As a senior, you could try to underslot him, but in this case I wouldn’t. Just give him exactly the slot of $212,900 for this pick.

#9.273 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

Vogel is another senior player. Actually, it’s worth mentioning that this draft class has an insane number of senior options. Backlog of Covid redshirts? Guys getting NIL money and deciding to stay in school? Not sure. That’s potentially a benefit for MLB teams looking for discounts for their bonus pool, but it may hurt them if they try to draft guys from the junior, or even redshirt junior, class(es).

Anyways, Vogel is 6’2″/195lbs, hits righthanded, plays a solid shortstop, and is hitting .339/.451/1.130 with 20 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB in 55 games.

#10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green

Miller-Green is an absolute unit of a guy at 6’5″/226lbs. He’s been a two-way player for Austin Peay, but his future is certainly with the bat where he’s primarily played RF. He’s hitting .395/.530/1.428 with 29 HR and 93 RBI in 54 games. Insane numbers. Even writing those out now makes me think this is too late to be drafting him. But he will be 24 in September, so it’s a calculated risk. This guy is an exit velocity monster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon St, Jacob Kmatz

Kmatz is another guy I wouldn’t have mocked to Seattle three-ish years ago. I THINK he might be Seattle’s kind of guy currently, though. He’s 6’3″/210lbs, posting 3.48 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9 in 14 starts. It’s not a splashy line, but it fits with the M’s recent profile of early day three pitchers.

#12.363 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

Gordon is another of the similar profile of part-time starter, fuller-time reliever that I’ve taken a few times this mock. He’s 6’5″/195lbs with a pedestrian 5.10 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9 and 9 saves in 5 starts and 12 relief appearances. His fastball is a present 97mph, and with the frame it’s easy to dream on 100mph.

#13.393 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

It’s a pointed intent of mine to force more lefthanded pitching talent into the Mariner system. Wilson marks a slightly different profile of lefty. He has 25 appearances this year, all of them out of the bullpen, but he has zero saves. Those 25 appearances have added up to 57.0 innings, which means that his average appearance lasts 2.1 innings. He’s more of the long-relief, middle-innings type who has a 1.175 WHIP, and 13.3 SO/9.

#14.423 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia

Again, another stab at some lefthanded pitching. Garcia is more of the “crafty lefty” profile, but he’s 6’4″/218lbs with a 3.61 ERA,1.112 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9 and only 2.1 BB/9 in 14 starts this year. If he can add some velo, I could see him be a very solid SP3 in time. Well worth the value this late as a guy turning 23 on Wednesday.

#15.453 – RHP, Western Kentucky, Mason Burns

I had originally sketched in a position player to this pick, but after looking at the entirety of all 20 rounds; I felt like I needed another pitcher. The easiest guy to cut was a utililty infielder.

I literally just wanted to find some true closer options. I liked Oregon State’s Bridger Holmes, but he was off the board. I liked the lefty Ben Abeldt out of TCU, but he just had slightly lesser metric scores than Burns.

Mason is leading the country in saves, and at 6’3″/210lbs he mixes a 96mph fastball with a solid slider to post 4.18 ERA, 12.8 SO/9, and 15 saves in 27 appearances. Seems to be a bit of a fun character, too.

#16.483 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor is another corner infielder that has come through the Ivy League en route to Northeastern where he’s hitting .405/.485/1.287 with 19 HR, a staggering 80 RBI, 14 SB in 53 games this year. I’d expect him to be drafted much earlier than this if he wasn’t turning 24 in July. Oh, and he also might be the best defensive 1B in this class.

#17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

In my previous mock for this year; I was kind of forcing a catcher pick much earlier in order to get a decent bat out of him, but after deeper consideration, I think I’d prefer to get a really good receiver and basesteal eliminator, and hope on the bat side.

Schiavone is a 6’2″/185lb catcher with a .278/.391/1.030 slash with 17 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB and a season .990 fielding percentage, and who has caught 38% of would-be basestealers this year.

#18.543 – OF, Morehead St, Ryley Preece

Preece is a holdover from multiple mocks of mine going back to last year. I like the profile. He’s a switch-hitter with a .353/.491/1.157 line, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 19 SB this year. He plays a very solid outfield, as well.

#19.573 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll

Another senior year player, Driscoll is a 6’5″/225lb starter with a 3.26 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, only 9.0 SO/9 but also only 1.8 BB/9 across 66.1 innings. Not a ton of upside, but I think he could eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#20.603 – C, Indiana St, Grant Magill

Magill is, arguably, the best defensive catcher in the country. I believe he won the college Gold Glove last year. He’s got a .992 season fielding percentage, and has caught 40% of basestealers this year. The bat is really not great…one of the worst in my database of about 400 players…at .285/.332/.757 with 6 HR, 42 RBI in 49 games. (It’s not a terrible bat, just the low end of my metric looking for projectable hitters.) I’d really just like to have Magill working with the system’s young pitchers.