2024-nfl-draft

Triple Mockiato

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

TThe 2025 NFL Draft starts six days from today. I may squeeze in a final mock next week, but as players have been ascending/descending value as we get closer, I’ve been running through simulations to try to pin down best strategy and gameplan. In doing that, I thought it might be fun to show you three of those simulations to kind of show some of the similarities and some of the pivot points where we might try some different things.

For me, every mock begins with a trade down. I’m not convinced Schneider will do this. Sometimes you just can’t do the trade in reality because reality is: you need a willing trade partner. But I WANT this trade. Badly.

The first trade in the mock is: #1.18 to Philadelphia for picks #1.32 + #2.64 + #5.161. Philly has a really strong roster, they may not have many holes to fill, so the idea of moving up for a player may appeal to them. It’s very appealing to me to not be precious with the #18 pick because I think this is one of those years the first round isn’t awesome. I much prefer stacking picks on day two, and Philadelphia is one of the few teams you can get a first AND a second in trade back, and then the fifth just rounds out the values.

MOCK #1

#1.32 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

This is the starting point of all three of these mocks. It’s kind of just an educated hunch on my part. And that’s all I have to say about that…for now.

In this first version of these trio of mocks; I’m going to stick with our next pick at #2.50 and not trade up. I could see Seattle being aggressive this year on TE. I, personally, don’t like the value of a first round TE. Historically, those players aren’t the most elite at their position, and the sweet spot has actually been in the second to early third.

#2.50 – TE, Miami, Elijah Arroyo

Although Seattle has had Mason Taylor in for an official visit, it is Arroyo that pops in pretty much every analysis I’ve done for the position, especially when isolating for receiving vs blocking TE’s. And, actually, Arroyo doesn’t score terribly as a blocker.

We’ve heard rumors that Seattle is looking for a big bodied WR type after the departure of DK Metcalf, and I kinda think Arroyo should get some consideration in that category. His 16.86 yards per reception mark was #1 in the country for TE, and it was also top 50 in the country for all positions.

My only hesitation with this pick is that I do kinda get some Austin Sefarian Jenkins vibes from Arroyo. But that could have potentially been said about Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski when they were coming out of school. If Arroyo matures appropriately; we get a steal. If not…we might get a Netflix documentary.

As I’ve experimented with simulators with multiple trades; at some point I discovered I could accomplish much of what I was looking to do with fewer, bigger trades. One that I really came to like was Seattle trading pick #2.52 + #3.82 + #3.92 to Carolina, where former Seahawk scout Dan Morgan is the GM now, and the return to Seattle is #2.57 + #3.74 + #4.111 + #4.114.

The primary reason for this trade is: moving up in the third round, and I think we can afford to do it because I think there will be multiple options we will like at #2.57.

#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

There was a time when I wasn’t comfortable risking to wait on taking a QB. I recently came to better appreciation for Will Howard, and Seattle invited Jalen Milroe to a 30 visit, so they must have some comfortability with him. Now, having some level of comfort with a QB mix of: Jaxson Dart, Shough, Milroe, Howard…I think I feel safer waiting until this pick to draft one.

#2.64 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

Robinson has been a mainstay of my mock drafting this year, and one of my biggest challenges has been trying to move around the board with enough precision to still draft him as his stock has risen.

I’ve experimented with taking OL here and trying to get Robinson in the 3rd, but I’ve found this is the more consistent path to accomplishing my favored overall draft.

#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

Do I think Wilson is still on the board this late? Not really. But if I’m given the option of pushing down the position that John Schneider openly hates, or pushing down the position that Seattle drafted as the first pick ever in the Mike Macdonald era; I’m pushing down the Center, and getting Ty Robinson earlier than the national media thinks.

#4.111 – RB, Miami, Damien Martinez

This is the biggest gap between picks in this mock (37 picks), and so when you finally get to the other side of it…you kind of have a bunch of things you want to pick. Fortunately, Seattle has two picks in a four-pick span.

It felt like, as I’ve experimented with multiple passes through simulations, the running backs I covet have more consistently been picked before I was able to get them. I’m currently looking at a group consisting of Martinez, DJ Giddens, and Bhayshul Tuten as targets with this pick. With the new OC; I’m not totally certain which kind of RB he prefers, and so this trio kind of represents some different “type” options. Tuten was really fast and ran a lot of zone concepts in college. Giddens is sort of mid-speed, mid-size and has the most shiftiness. Martinez is the biggest, slowest of the three, but also represents the most thumping, contact balance style.

#4.114 – WR, Washington St, Kyle Williams

The biggest change I’m consistently making in my mock drafts recently, is that I’m moving on from Dont’e Thornton. Between Arroyo at TE, and the two WR I’m bringing in with this mock; I kinda think I’m getting a better overall version of what Thornton is, and what DK was in aggregate, without some of the holes in their game, by going after receivers the way I am in this mock.

I’ve had Williams in prior mocks, and I’m coming back to him again now, after Seattle included him in their 30 official visits. He might be Doug Baldwin 2.0.

#4.137 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

Lundt was primarily the RT for Connecticut last year, but as I’ve been studying it…he’s actually kind of the poor-man’s version of Tate Ratledge in this class. Ratledge was almost 6’7″/308lbs at the Combine with 32 2/8″ arms…Lundt was 6’7 1/2″, 304lbs, with 32 5/8″ arms. Lundt may end up at guard with that arm length. I wouldn’t give up on him at RT, but his quicker path to play time might come as a guard.

#5.161 – CB, California, Nohl Williams

I really like this spot to draft a CB. If Seattle can get either Williams or Zah Frazier; I think we’ll have underrated options to usurp either Josh Jobe or Riq Woolen from the starting lineup, and we’ll get better as a defense at tackling from both of Williams/Frazier.

Williams is not the fastest CB available, but his personality profile kind of reminds me of Quandre Diggs but in a corner body. This guy has a ton of “fuck around and find out” to his vibe. Which Riq does not have. And I think Riq is not long for the roster under Macdonald.

#5.172 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

To me, there isn’t a ton of logic to drafting a linebacker in the first three rounds, when your picks ideally are starters, after Seattle brought back Ernest Jones. Plus, this draft doesn’t have a good class of LB. The better logic is: get a backup with upside. In that regard, I’ve landed on Simon as my favorite option.

With multiple picks in quick succession at 172 & 175; I would like to move down 175 and add a couple picks in the sixth round. Trade #5.175 to the Chargers for picks #6.181 + #6.209.

#6.181 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

This might be my riskiest call. Not risky in terms of the player, but risky in terms of waiting so long to get him. I think Teslaa might be quietly an ascending player in real draft rooms. He’s a legit 6’4″/214lbs and ran a 4.43s forty, with great overall athletic testing. THIS, along with Arroyo’s running/receiving ability, is why my first WR pick for Seattle was 5’11”.

Teslaa might be poor man’s Emeka Egbuka. I have trouble picking Egbuka in the first round when our roster currently holds Jaxon Smith Njigba and Cooper Kupp, but getting Egbuka-lite in the 6th round is fine by me.

#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson

I really have zero feel for what Seattle is doing with their open nose tackle spot with the absence of Johnathan Hankins. They aren’t bringing NT’s in for visits, so we can’t get a feel for their NT body type. Maybe they actually want to move forward with the combo of Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed getting their NT snaps.

Regardless, I think there are enough draftable NT in this class to at least take a flyer on someone late. I’ve got Jackson, Nazir Stackhouse, and Cam Horsley as options. Hell, if he falls far enough, get JJ Pegues back in the mix.

#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue

In ten years, we may look back on this draft class and judge the success/failure of it based on Cabeldue. If they draft him, if they don’t, if he’s good, if he’s not. Cabes started all 12 Jayhawk games at Tackle last year, so he might be kind of a more athletic of Jake Curhan from a couple years ago. My research says his arms were measured 33 2/8″, which is borderline acceptable for an OT, but I could see him also becoming a pretty good OG. I might give him first shot at the LG opening.

#7.234 – RB, Texas Tech, Tahj Brooks

Honestly, I’m not sure how I ended up with this pick in this mock. I may have lost track of where I was in the mock, or which mocks I had got a RB. It’s not super important as it’s the last pick. This pick could be a second TE…it could be a third WR…it could be a safety, which I really haven’t found one I like.

In reality, it might be good to draft a fullback here, but most of the guys I’ve sort of passively studied for fullback aren’t even available in the simulation.

In these subsequent mocks; if a player matches up with the same player at the same pick as a prior mock; I’m not giving any commentary. I will only go into the new moves of each variation.

MOCK #2

Trade back #18 to Philly again.

#1.32 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

Now, at some point in the early 2nd round; I think it’s potentially likely that Seattle will trade up from one of their two picks. Because we added a 5th rounder from Philly; I am willing to package #50 plus one of their 5th rounders to move up six spots to try to cut in line for a certain player. I’ve found the highest I can trade up without using a 3rd or 4th round pick is to get to Dallas’ #44. So it goes: #50 + #175 to Dallas for #44.

#2.44 – CB, East Carolina, Shavon Revel

I’ve talked in the recent past that I kinda think Seattle is looking to draft a Corner earlier than we might realize with, basically, no turnover in the Corner room after last year. I think we might be prepping to FORCE some turnover. So we need reinforcements. I really like Revel. I hated when he got hurt, but at the same time, his injury is the only reason he’s potentially still on the board here.

He measured at the Combine 6’2″/194lbs with 32 5/8″ arms. Legit big corner size. Reports are that he’s got low 4.40 speed when healthy. His injury was an ACL, which could be concerning, but Seattle did bring him in for a 30 visit so that they could get their own doctors to give him a physical.

This pick FEELS more like what Seattle wants to do than my personal projection of Nohl Williams.

Again, we do the big trade with Carolina for multiple pick swaps.

#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

#2.64 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

#4.111 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

After Arroyo, Ferguson might be the second-best receiving TE in this draft. Some of his metrics stack up really favorably with some of the best TE in the NFL currently. This would be a great value if he’s still on the board.

#4.114 – RB, Miami, Damien Martinez

#4.137 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

#5.161 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

In this version of a mock, Kyle Williams was not picked in favor of the TE earlier, so I’m using an earlier pick on Teslaa. Which, honestly, feels like a more probable range for Teslaa to be picked.

#5.181 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson

#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue

#7.234 – WR, Kansas, Quentin Skinner

As I wrote earlier, I’m moving on from Dont’e Thornton in all mocks. I think his price has gotten too high for what he is. He’s not a complete player. And that seemed more palatable when I was getting him in the 5th round.

Quentin Skinner is kind of poor-man’s Thornton. At 6’4″/195lbs, he’s a bit skinner than Dont’e, and his pro day speed was reportedly more in the 4.51s range when Thornton ran laser-timed 4.30s flat. But Skinner gives you similar skillset. He ranked #3 in the country in yards per catch (Thornton was #1). I really like Skinner’s willingness to give up his body for the catch. I really like who Skinner is between the ears. Drafting him at this range, maybe you sneak him onto the practice squad for the year, but in 2026 he slots nicely into a replacement for MVS.

MOCK #3

We’re starting with a similar thought process, but a slightly different trade. I don’t think this is nearly as plausible as the Philly trade, but I ran it through the simulator and the results were just too good not to wish on.

This time I’m going to trade #18 to Buffalo for picks #1.30 + #2.62 + #4.132. Buffalo has three picks in quick succession in the fifth that go: 169, 170, 173. I think adding one of those instead of a fourth is more likely. And, really, I could have done this structure with Philly for their fourth rounder at #134. I kinda like the pivot to Buffalo because their second round pick is a little higher than Philly, but also…Buffalo begins the draft with ten total picks to Philly’s eight. Buffalo might be more willing to move around the board.

#1.30 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

Same trade with Dallas to move up.

#2.44 – CB, East Carolina, Shavon Revel

#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

#2.62 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

#4.111 – WR, Washington State, Kyle Williams

#4.114 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

#4.132 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

#4.137 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

#5.181 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson

#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue

#7.234 – DS, Wisconsin, Hunter Wohler

I really don’t love this Safety class, so I haven’t really spent much time forcing a pick there. Seattle has Julian Love and Coby Bryant returning. They signed D’Anthony Bell in free agency. I feel okay pushing safety down, if not off, the board.

Really, for this particular mock, I should have done running back here. Actually, a fullback might be the most realistic call.

Wohler has some interesting traits and production on his resume. He could be a nice special teams player out of the gate, and you see if you can develop him.

Ultimately, these mocks aren’t that different, and that is by design. There really shouldn’t be wild swings in variation. Not if you have a plan. There are a couple inflection points. In the second round…trade up or stand pat? In the second round…CB or TE? In the fourth round…which offensive skill position(s) do you take and which order?

There’s also player alternates for many of these picks. QB at #57…if Shough is gone, I think the current thought is Will Howard next. If you miss on Ty Robinson…the next guy at that profile might be a Jordan Burch or Saivion Jones. I talked about Zah Frazier being alternate to Nohl Williams. I talked about the running back alternates. Jalin Conyers is still of great interest to me if you miss on Ferguson. Teddye Buchanan is alternate to Cody Simon at LB.

If I had to choose one of these mocks as my #1 goal…of course it’s Mock #3. The luxury of having an extra 4th instead of an extra 5th allows me to get Kyle Williams, Terrance Ferguson, AND Isaac Teslaa. That’s beautiful, to me.

The negatives of Mock 3 are: 1) no running back. I’m like 90% sure John and Mike draft a running back at some point in this strong RB class. 2) I really don’t like pushing Jared Wilson into the third round. Maybe I should have used one of the 2nd’s on him, and tried to get Zah Frazier as my CB later on instead of Revel. In some ways that makes more sense with Revel’s injury, and Frazier’s full athletic testing. If healthy…I like Revel better, but it’s a big question. It sort of feels like the 2018 draft…Seattle drafts Rashaad Penny at #1.27 over Nick Chubb (#2.35) because Penny had immaculate medicals, and Chubb was coming off injury, but Chubb ended up the more productive career player by almost 5000 rushing yards.

The big question on all of these mocks is: what do you do with nose tackle? I think Seattle has been hiding something in their official visits. One of those things, I presume, is interior offensive line. I think there are clean prospects in that group that have allowed them, somewhat, to stay away. But the other spot is nose tackle. I just have a weird hunch that we’re all kind of disregarding an early pick on nose tackle too easily in the last month. Maybe Kenneth Grant, maybe Derrick Harmon, but the guy I’m super-intrigued by is Tyleik Williams. He feels like a guy that makes so much sense on paper, but who is never really connected to Seattle. And then they pick him and everybody is like, “whoa, didn’t see that coming.”

Tyleik, like Shavon, would make total sense as a target of the trade up scenario with Dallas. So maybe let’s start seeing that coming.

Seahawks March mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The NFL announced this year’s compensatory picks yesterday, so the official draft board is all but set (pending the known trades becoming official at beginning of the official league year at 1pm PST today). The Seahawks ended up with some good news: ending up with comp picks in the 4th, 5th, and 5th instead of the projected 4th, 5th, 6th.

The draft board now stands at:

#1.18
#2.50
#2.52
#3.82
#3.92
#4.137c
#5.172c
#5.175c
#6.185
#7.234

So they have ten picks. I really, really want thirteen picks. I know this is improbable…John Schneider has never had more than eleven picks in a single year…but I’m still going to make the moves that get me there.

With the addition of a 2nd rounder from the DK Metcalf trade, and a 3rd rounder in the Geno Smith trade; Seattle has the luxury of how they value trading back their first pick. The way I see the board, I think they don’t need to add a 2nd. Instead, I’ve taken a trade that allows them to add two in the 3rd. I think this draft is very strong into the beginning of day three, or the end of the 4th round. Third round picks are very valuable.

The trade is #1.18 to Kansas City for their picks #1.31 + #3.66 + #3.95.

Trades in the actual draft are harder to execute than they are in draft simulators, so I tried to limit myself to only two trades. The second deal sends #3.92 to Carolina for their picks at #4.111 and #4.114.

#1.31 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

Schneider has given the line about IOL getting over-drafted and over-paid…then, in recent media interviews, he’s kinda only digging in on that philosophy…and he really hasn’t paid any of the free agent OL this week, so I think we take him at his word and don’t use a first round pick on IOL.

There has been zero chatter in quite some time about Tuimoloau, and his draft stock in the media is actually 20-25 picks lower than this. Part of my strategy in this mock is to overdraft, basically, everyone so that I can repeat the results in the simulator.

JT had one of the most productive seasons of all DE in the class. We don’t have athletic testing yet, but his Combine weigh-in has him at 6’4″/265lbs with 33 3/4″ arms. One quick aside on all Combine arm length measurements that will be included in this piece: for whatever reason the Combine listed shorter arm measurements for most players that were also measured at the Senior Bowl by about a half-inch. I’m tending to give everyone that additional length back. So JT becomes 34 1/4″.

Seattle recently cut Dre’mont Jones and re-signed Jarran Reed. It currently feels like there are more snaps that will be available at DE than DT with Big Cat and Murphy returning at DT while Nwosu is an injury question mark at DE, so I’m feeling like the early pick will be weighted to going DE.

#2.50 – OG, Georgia, Tate Ratledge

I believe, if memory serves, I had Ratledge as a Seattle pick in my mock going back to October 2024. I went away from that some while he was recovering from an injury, but after his strong showing at the Combine, let’s get back in the Ratledge business.

He’s 6’7″/308lbs with 32 1/4″ (**32 3/4″) arms and ran a 4.97s forty with great explosivity in the jumps. And the tape was always good.

#2.52 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

I’m resigned to the idea that there is only one true college center that is worth drafting in this class, and it is Wilson. There are some OT or OG college players that may move in to Center, but Wilson is the only one that played there last season. As of when I’m writing this, Seattle has missed out on Drew Dalman and Ryan Kelly in free agency. You can make the argument that 2024 draftpicks Christian Haynes and Sataoa Laumea’s play may improve with the hiring of Klint Kubiak, and moving to more of a zone blocking scheme. I’m not sure the same applies to Olu Oluwatimi. They need to prioritize Center in the draft.

Weighing in at 6’3″/310lbs with 32 3/8″ (**32 7/8″) arms, Wilson ran the fastest forty time of all OL at 4.84 seconds. And, really, the more I dig into him the more I want him on the team. If Seattle can’t add a veteran leader at Center, it might be a bit of a hack to add two guys from the same college OL that already have pre-existing chemistry.

#3.66 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

Yes, Seattle just signed Sam Darnold. I really think that’s the Matt Flynn half of the Flynn/Russell Wilson double move from the 2012 offseason. The bigger question, to me, is “who is Schneider’s guy?” Shough is MY guy, but I’m not convinced he will be Schneider’s. Some other possibilities would be Riley Leonard, Will Howard, Quinn Ewers. I would hate for it to be Ewers, and I’d be more indifferent to Leonard or Howard.

Shough is the old man of this QB class, and I’m sure people look at his career and want to tag him with the “injury-prone” label, but each of his injuries was a broken bone. It has not been soft-tissue, knees, etc. A broken bone is kind of a bad luck injury. And Shough had three of them.

But at the Combine Shough went in to Indy, measured one of the bigger-framed QB’s at 6’5″/219lbs, he competed in all of the tests outside of agility runs, and his numbers there were quite good with a 4.63s forty, 32″ vert, and 9’09” broad jump. His throwing session was also, arguably, the second-best behind Jaxson Dart in terms of accuracy, but probably a tick better than Dart if you consider arm strength.

#3.82 – DL, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

I’ve had two DT in just about every mock I’ve put out in the last 3-4 months: Ty Robinson and JJ Pegues. In this draft, after they brought back Jarran Reed, I’m forcing myself to make a call and only keep one of my guys. I’m going with Robinson for his better passrush. Pegues I think can pressure the QB, but ultimately he’s more of a run-defender, and when he showed up at the Combine at only 309lbs (down from listing at Ole Miss of 325lbs), and only ran a 5.15s forty…I think we can find a nose tackle later on.

Robinson also cut weight pre-Combine to 288lbs at 6’5″, but Robinson ran the fastest forty time of all DT at 4.83s. He’s got position versatility, especially if he stayed at 288, so he could be a replacement for Dre’mont Jones, or he can pair with Leonard Williams at DT for 3rd down passing situation NASCAR packages, etc.

#3.95 – CB, California, Nohl Williams

I feel like people are saying they like this cornerback class. I do not. Lots of short-armed, pretty skinny guys. There are literally two CB that I find draftable after the 1st round. I’m very much forcing this pick to get my “1A” guy.

Williams is 6’0″/199lbs with only 30 3/4″ (**31 1/4″) arms, and he ran only a 4.50s forty with just modest scores in the jumps. But, on tape, Williams is a very productive corner who posted 7 INT and 9 PBU last year. He’s a pretty aggressive player, he tackles well, but I’m just hesitant on him cause I’m sort of reading his personality with a bit of a darkness to him. Which we’ve seen Seattle bring in with Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner, Earl Thomas. Those were the guys that were productive, but you could also throw in, like, the Malik McDowell’s of their history. Can he be regulated? If I’m even reading him correctly.

#4.111 – OT, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

Possibly the first question mark pick, in terms of position, in this mock. Does Seattle need an OT? Starters Charles Cross and Abe Lucas will be returning for the final years of their rookie deals (Cross eligible for 5th year option), and they made a minor free agent move to sign Josh Jones as a swing OT/OL. Also, is Lundt even an OT in the pro’s? His Combine found him to have 32 5/8″ arms. Even with the conversion I’m using, he would still be sub-34″ at 33 1/8″.

I would just like to see them get a young guy, with four years of club control, in a draft that is strong with (especially) RIGHT tackles, that they can stash behind two guys on the last year of their deals. And, similar to getting two Georgia guys in the 2nd, Lundt could have some immediate chemistry with his college teammate from 2023, Christian Haynes. Mini-hack.

#4.114 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

Ernest Jones was re-signed last weekend, so I backed down a bit from drafting a linebacker earlier in the draft, while still targeting a player with some traits that I’m looking for. Simon did not test at the Combine, but weighed in at 6’2″/229lbs. I wish he was more in the 235lb range, but with a 6’2″ frame, maybe he can add weight as we go.

He was a pretty productive player for the Buckeyes with 112 tackles, 12.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, and 7 PBU in 15 games last year.

#4.137 – WR, Washington State, Kyle Williams

This might be another point in this mock where my draft philosophy will strongly contrast from Schneider. I could easily see John draft a WR earlier than this. After losing Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, it would make a lot of sense. I, personally, just see that there are some sneakier WR upside players that they could try to find later on. We could draft the Jaxon Smith Njigba player (again), or we could try to find the Puka Nacua player from the same class.

Williams is a 5’11″/190lb receiver that ran a 4.40s flat forty at the Combine after posting season totals of 1198 yards and 14 TD. Check out the video vs likely top 5 overall pick Travis Hunter:

#5.172 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

I really didn’t study Teslaa until the last week-10 days when I was doing some further diligence on the whole WR class. If you want to push a position group down your board, you need to know all of the options available later on.

Teslaa measured 6’4″/214lbs at the Combine and ran a 4.43s forty. His jumps were very strong, but what really caught my eye was the fact that he ran a 6.85s three-cone and a 4.05s shuttle, the latter of which was 1st amongst WR.

He actually played primarily the slot for Arkansas last year, and his agility scores aren’t that different from Cooper Kupp (6.75 cone, 4.08 shuttle).

#5.175 – TE, Texas Tech, Jalin Conyers

Necessity is the mother of invention, and similarly when you need to push a position down your board, you actually can make interesting discoveries. I think there’s a ton of reason that Seattle might take a TE earlier than this…I really like Terrance Ferguson, and he tested very well…but I found multiple data points that started pointing me towards Conyers, and therefore getting to take advantage of drafting other positions earlier.

Jalin measured 6’4″/260lbs with 33 1/4″ (**33 3/4″) arms at the Combine, and ran an acceptable forty time of 4.74s, but led all TE in the shuttle (4.27s) and the three-cone (6.94s) while also placing top four in group in both jumps.

He’s also kind of bargain basement Tyler Warren in the sense that Conyers was a Swiss Army knife player for Texas Tech, with 8 carries and 2 TD rushing, and 1 pass attempt and 1 TD throwing the ball. In 2023 he had 22 rushing attempts. Could this be Seattle/Kubiak’s 2025 version of Taysom Hill?

#6.185 – DT, Georgia, Nazir Stackhouse

As I talked about earlier, I found it necessary to start looking at lower-cost options for the nose-tackle replacement for Johnathan Hankins. I’ve settled on Stackhouse. He didn’t have much production this year, but at the Combine he measured 6’4″/327lbs with 32 1/2″ arms (**33″), and ran 5.15s in the forty. It was the same forty time Pegues ran, but Stackhouse is about 20 pounds heavier.

#7.234 – S, Wisconsin, Hunter Wohler

I literally ran this mock draft through a simulator earlier today to get a feel for if it could work. I was honestly looking to spend this pick on a third WR in Dont’e Thornton. Thornton was off the board, and although I had some other players in mind with a similar skillset to Thornton, I think they might also be available as undrafted free agents. I decided to pivot to something totally different. Then, a couple hours after running through the simulator and missing on my WR3, news came out that Seattle is signing Marquez Valdes Scantling. Perfect. They can push the Thornton profile to UDFA.

(For the record, MVS is 6’4″/206lbs and ran a 4.37s forty coming out of college. Thornton is 6’5″/205lbs and ran 4.30s…so that’s the right profile, I think. My UDFA target will be Quentin Skinner from Kansas. Listed 6’5″/195lbs, but he wasn’t invited to the Combine, so we’re waiting for his pro day to get more intel.)

I think Seattle needs a safety more than most people that follow the team. They cut Rayshawn Jenkins leaving Julian Love and Coby Bryant as the incumbents. I think Wohler brings a different element than both of those guys at 6’2″/213lbs (he played at 218lbs for Wisconsin). He only ran a 4.57s forty, but Julian Love only ran 4.54s, and former Macdonald safety in Baltimore, Kyle Hamilton, only ran 4.59s.

Wohler had 71 tackles in 11 games last year from the safety spot, after finishing with 120 tackles in 13 games in 2023. He’s a very high-floor player, to me. Bring him in at low cost, develop him at whatever pace you need to without the demand of having to start immediately…use him on special teams, etc…and see if maybe he might end up like a Talanoa Hufanga, who was drafted in the 5th round and went on to be a pro bowler.

I really like how this draft is able to unfold after acquiring those additional picks in trade. The draft should have a ton of flexibility. And I already liked how this class of players stacked up for what Seattle needs to add. I’m excited.

Mock simulator draft

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

It’s fun every once in a while to run your draft thoughts through a simulator. It can give you in real-time a sense of players that are moving up, guys that are cooling off, places in the draft where particular position groups may bunch up, and certainly it’s an easy way to look at potential draft trades. Because trades are so easy, I have self-imposed some trade rules: 1) I’ve given myself a max of 4 trades per mock, 2) I’m not allowed to accept any computer offered trades. When the simulator creates the trade offer(s), the value is sometimes overly beneficial to the player. AKA…they’re unrealistic.

I like to make all of my trades before I even start the simulator. This allows me to just focus on the board and the players still on it. So here is what those trades looked like:

I’ve done a lot of mocking and have found 13 picks would be amazing to be able to get to, but I think one of those would have to come from the trade of a player on the current roster. Obviously, I can’t make those kinds of trades in these simulators, but also that trade doesn’t really feel like it’s coming. Certainly not at the highest end of the quality on the roster (meaning DK Metcalf).

We’ve heard multiple times now that this particular draft class may only have 16-20 first round graded players. I believe it was Daniel Jeremiah who said that the difference between pick #20 and pick #40 is minimal. And then he even expanded on that to say that it might be #18 to #45. I like trading back this draft. I like the amount of talent that should be available on day two particularly, and I think, with the salary cap situation John Schneider still has work to do on, we kind of need to plan on trying to fill most of the roster holes via cheap, draft players rather than vet free agents, which everyone seems to be throwing around carelessly (and unrealistically). With those thoughts in mind, I’ve traded entirely out of the 1st round.

#1.39 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

After months of sort of continually mocking Seattle to draft a speed, edge rusher, which this draft is rife with; I’ve recently come around to realizing, I think the idea of DE target should be a bit bigger bodied player. I’m talking 265-275lbs rather than 245-260lbs. Tuimoloau is listed 6’5″/269lbs, and was one of the most-productive DL in the country. He did it on the national champion team, and he got better and better as the Buckeyes got into the playoffs and were facing the best teams in the country.

To recognize that I’m not drafting the best OL still on the board, a couple thoughts: whatever cap space Schneider is able to open up should be spent on a free agent OL, and specifically a center. This OL needs a leader, and I think the no-doubter best leaders in the draft are gone by Seattle’s pick. Secondly, I think the scheme we’re likely walking into can make due with lesser overall talent.

https://twitter.com/BCarwile_NFL/status/1887534957133705382

#2.62 – LB, South Carolina, Demetrius Knight

It currently feels like the consensus around town is that Seattle won’t need a linebacker this early because they will bring back Ernest Jones. I’m not so sure. I think this might be kind of the Drew Lock situation from last year, the team sincerely wants to bring the guy back, but the player doesn’t necessarily want to return. Plus, he might be able to get more money going to a team that has actual, you know, cap space.

The draft is not strong at linebacker, so if they want to draft one, they need to do it early-ish. Knight has been a favorite of mine for months now, and he’s done nothing but climb throughout the season and postseason. Up next for him is the combine, which may really open some people’s eyes on him.

https://twitter.com/Rob__Paul/status/1882889106390495691

#3.72 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

I’ve given up on the idea that Geno Smith will be cut/traded, but by no means does that mean I think Seattle won’t draft one, and that draftee may end up starting sooner than people realize. It may be a variation of the Matt Flynn situation. Seattle NEEDS to get the ball rolling on a successor to Geno. This draft has a number of guys that won’t cost a 1st round pick, but have the potential to fall into the Geno/Russell/Kirk Cousins/Jalen Hurts/Dak Prescott category of QB talent.

As Jaxson Dart has entered the conversation of 1st round QB, maybe even the 2nd QB off the board, I’m already prepared to pivot to Shough, who I think has been very underrated all year. His arm-talent is pretty well-recognized, but I also think his running ability is underrated.

https://twitter.com/_RyanFowler_/status/1891574536719524236

#3.82 – OG, Iowa, Connor Colby

The climb up draft boards has already begun for Colby, and I think it will take another large step after the Combine. A natural right guard, that would be where he slots in for Seattle.

https://twitter.com/Elite_Drafters/status/1888058366510936126

#3.86 – CB, California, Nohl Williams

It took me a long time to sort of self-realize it, but I think CB is a bigger need on this team than I had been thinking during the season. I think Riq Woolen is overrated, and at minimum inconsistent. Jackson Jobe finished the year as a starter, but clearly he can be upgraded. And Devon Witherspoon can’t seem to get out of the slot because the team likes him closer to the snap.

Nohl Williams is rad, and that’s all I have to say about that.

https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1882496483351736747

#3.90 – DL, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

Robinson is a long-time holdover from my mocks all year. The cliffs notes: positional versatility (including fullback), smart, tough, productive.

https://twitter.com/Huskers_film/status/1873403838180491759

#4.108 – DL, Ole Miss, JJ Pegues

Rinse and repeat. I want the duo of Robinson and Pegues to become staples of the Macdonald defense for a decade. It also would be rad to have Robinson lead-block for Pegues in wildcat.

https://twitter.com/Cover3Podcast/status/1315028266877583360

#4.131 – OT, UConn, Chase Lundt

It’s been tough to gauge where the league is valuing Lundt. I feel like this is too low, but it worked in the mock simulator. Lundt gives us an immediate replacement for free agent Stone Forsythe, and also a legit hedge for Abe Lucas’ knee.

https://twitter.com/NoFlagsFilm/status/1872301494864892170

#4.137 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

If we’re keeping Metcalf, which we apparently are, I think the bigger draft capital probably goes to the tight end room than wide receiver.

#5.173 – TE, Georgia Tech, Jackson Hawes

It only came to me this week…it’s a pretty good TE draft class…draft two. There are high-end TE that would be interesting in Warren and Arroyo, but there’s also a good number of midround guys. If not Ferguson, or Hawes, I also think Jalin Conyers makes sense for Klint Kubiak who just came from the team where Taysom Hill was the Swiss army knife player.

Ferguson is a nice receiving TE, who can block a little. Hawes is a great blocking TE, who can receive a little. Conyers is a jack of all trades. Get two of them.

#6.187 – OL, Jacksonville State, Clay Webb

I honestly think the move for Seattle won’t be signing Drew Dalman to play center, but they might go after Ryan Kelly on a smaller deal. But behind him, I like the idea of Webb getting a soft-landing without expectation of needing to start immediately, so he can take some time to get back in the habit of playing Center, where he spent most of his time playing in high school.

#6.212 – WR, Washington State, Kyle Williams

I only, very recently, got to looking into Williams, and as I said on twitter, he reminds me of Doug Baldwin. That would be a great type of player to add this late.

#7.236 – WR, Tennessee, Dont’e Thornton

With all of the talk of Tyler Lockett being a cap casualty; I think Seattle needs to do something at WR. Getting two guys with the upside of Williams and Thornton, and who each have unique size and traits; you could, at minimum, replace Lock in the aggregate.

If there’s one thing this mock is egregiously missing…it would be a running back in a strong running back class. It’s always good to draft from the strength(s) of the class, but in this class we have good OL, good DL, good TE, and good RB. We double-dipped, if not triple, on three of the four of those. And there’s a chance you can find one that makes the roster out of rookie free agency.

Total draft:

Seahawks new year mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to 2025! As I’m writing this we’re still a few hours away from the Seahawks’ season finale in Los Angeles. It will be a meaningless game for the already-eliminated Hawks in terms of this season, but maybe it gives us some ideas about what they will be doing going forward. The big intel might be how they handle Geno Smith in the game, as he is on pace to hit a number of contract performance bonus escalators if he plays and plays well today.

I’m not a salary cap expert by any stretch, so the way I read the projections for Seattle’s 2025 cap, they’re in bad shape. Like, “bottom five teams in the league” bad. It’s no wonder they had to table negotiations to extend Ernest Jones. They really need to make some cuts first. And there aren’t really clean cuts to make. There’s a lot of dead money they are going to have to just eat. I think the best way to do that is to rip the bandaid off. The three biggest cap hits are Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf. The single biggest cap savings would be cutting (or trading) Geno before June 1…saving $25million. The biggest dead money also comes from probably your best trade chip…DK, with $21mill dead money. And Lockett is probably the most replaceable based on his current role on the roster with JSN now looking like WR1. Lock will dead money you almost $14mill, and save you $17mill.

Personally, I might just do all three. But I kinda doubt Seattle does. I’m going to split the difference, cut Geno, trade DK, and just ride it out with the always classy Lock.

For a DK trade, I look at competitive teams that have good cap space, maybe only have a WR1, and then have a decent amount of draft capital. Buffalo has the draft picks, but don’t really have cap space. Washington has cap, but only mid on draft picks. Minnesota has cap space, but hardly any draft picks. I came away with the Chargers having the best fit.

Chargers have the 8th-most cap space. They have 11 projected draft picks. And their leading WR this year was Ladd McConkey with 1000 yards, followed by Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston with under 600 yards. It’s a pretty young WR room, where DK would actually become the elder-statesman at 27. I’m going to project the trade is DK for the Chargers’ 2nd (#2.57) and one of their four picks in the 6th round at #6.178.

In one note on free agency, before you wonder why I don’t have Seattle drafting a left guard after losing Laken Tomlinson to free agency…I will project Seattle goes out and signs Teven Jenkins as their #1 priority in free agency.

In the first trade within the draft; I have Seattle moving back from #1.18 to #1.29 while adding #2.62 in deal with Buffalo, who also own the #2.61 pick.

We’ll immediately flip #62 to Las Vegas for pick #3.69 + #5.146. And we’ll move Seattle’s native 3rd round pick to Baltimore for their 3rd (3.91) and one of their 4th’s (4.128). This will be a LOT of draftpicks, but Seattle needs to get younger and cheaper while they take the dead cap hits from Geno and DK.

1.18(SEA)->1.29(BUF) + 2.62(BUF)

1.29(BUF) – QB, Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart

I’ve decided the way forward for Seattle isn’t to cut Geno Smith and then immediately target someone like Sam Darnold, who is going to cost almost as much as Geno. Nor do I want to lose draft picks to acquire, say, JJ McCarthy in trade. Seattle has Sam Howell under contract for another year. They also have Jaren Hall on the active roster, and then there’s John Rhys Plumlee who was also recently added to the active roster but now listed as a WR. (This might be some parlor trick bullshit until they resolve the Geno situation. It would just be a bad look to openly show four QB on the active roster in a game that doesn’t matter, but could cost the team millions.)

I think the move here is giving thorough examination of Howell, Hall, Plumlee, AND two more QB that they will get in the draft. To me, Howell, Hall, and Plumlee all have a very similar vibe, and Jaxson Dart has that same vibe. (Maybe I’m on to the right idea, but the wrong player, and it actually ends up Riley Leonard…but I prefer Dart.)

I’m not gonna telegraph the entire thinking here, but suffice to say, focus on the strategy.

https://twitter.com/SSN_OleMiss/status/1875021882279506216

2.50(SEA) – Defensive End, Boston College, Donovan Ezeiruaku

Seattle needs a more consistent Edge rush presence. Uchenna Nwosu missed most of the year injured, and now has only played 11-12 games over the last two years, producing only three sacks combined. We can’t count on him. Derick Hall has had a nice sophomore season with 8.0 sacks, but to my eye a lot of those have been coverage and/or cleanup sacks. And Boye Mafe only has one sack over his last five games, after opening the year with four sacks in the first five games.

This draft looks incredibly strong in the Edge rush class. It is the best philosophy to pick from the strength(s) of a draft. Seattle should do this just based on that, alone.

Ezeiruaku is a more long, slender, speed edge rusher than the guys we have presently have at 6’2″/247lbs. He bends the corner better than almost anyone in the class. He had 20.5 TFL, 16.5 sacks, and 15 QB hurries this year.

https://twitter.com/NoFlagsFilm/status/1841918705288012035

2.57(LAC trade DK) – Offensive Guard, Georgia, Tate Ratledge

As I said before, Seattle should target Teven Jenkins in free agency to address one of the guard spots. The second guard (right) they should get early in the draft. There are some college tackles that project to move inside that I’d be happy to get, but in this case I’m taking one of the true guards.

Ratledge is listed 6’6″/320lbs and is just one of the most well-rounded OL in the draft. Intangibles, too.

https://twitter.com/JosephHerffNFL/status/1874875736148046105

2.62(BUF)->3.69(LVR) + 5.146(LVR)

3.69(LVR) – Linebacker, Ole Miss, Chris Paul Jr

Maybe Seattle gets Ernest Jones re-signed, maybe they don’t. But Seattle needs more talent in the linebacker room. It clearly made a difference in the performance of the Seahawk defense from Baker and Dodson to Jones and Knight. If you end up redshirting Paul for a year or two…fine.

Listed 6’1″/235lbs, Paul posted 88 tackles, 11.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 9 hurries, 1 INT, and 4 PBU this year as the MIKE in the #14 defense in the country (#3 in scoring defense). He checks a lot of boxes that I’m looking for.

https://twitter.com/BengalsBrews/status/1859046662028542307

3.82(SEA)->3.91(BAL) + 4.128(BAL)

3.91(BAL) – Defensive Tackle, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

Seattle has impending free agents at DT in Jarran Reed, Johnathan Hankins, and Brandon Pili. Cameron Young has been non-existent since he was drafted in 2023. We need reinforcements on the interior DL. I’m a fan of using vets at DT, as the younger guys seem ineffective until they’ve had 3-4 years in the pro’s, but Seattle may not have the cap space to do that.

Robinson is listed 6’6″/310lbs, and he’s played everywhere along the Huskers’ line (not to mention some fullback). This year he posted 12.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 7 hurries, 4 PBU, 1 FF, and 1 blocked kick. It may not be a sexy pick, but this guy makes your roster better.

https://twitter.com/JaredNFLDraft/status/1873070977397219825

4.128(BAL) – Quarterback, Louisville, Tyler Shough

I mentioned last week on twitter that I kind of like Seattle doing what Washington did in 2012 when they drafted RG3 in the 1st round and then Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of that draft. I don’t really think the quality of this quarterback class will be in the 1st round. I think there’s a number of quality leaders of men that play QB, but have not caught the eye of the media, and probably not the league. But history will look kindly on a couple guys drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds.

Shough has a complicated story, having started at Oregon, played a couple injury-plagued years at Texas Tech, before finally getting a full healthy year in 2024 at Louisville. He now has ties to the schools that recently gave us Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. He’s got the ideal QB build at 6’5″/225lbs. He’s an older player at 25, which is why he will fall in the draft, but I like his longterm prospects.

https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/1869755257540235527

4.136(SEA comp) – Tight End, Miami, Elijah Arroyo

I think this is a lowkey nice TE class. I’d like to see the Hawks invest a decent pick at the spot. A) they need a quid pro quo replacement for free agent Pharoah Brown. B) I kinda think the right TE player could end up being a pseudo replacement for DK Metcalf.

Arroyo is listed 6’4″/245lbs and posted 35 catches for 590 yards and 7 TD this year.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1855299379197825066

5.146(LVR) – Defensive Tackle, Ole Miss, JJ Pegues

Listen, at this point, I’m just ride-or-die with some of these guys. The only thing that changes is how early I need to draft them. Pegues is one of my favorite players in the entire draft. I want him on my team. He’s listed at 6’2″/325lbs and still has a pretty legit outside edge rush. And he can get you short yardage carries as a ball carrier. He makes your roster better and deeper.

JJ finished the year with 13.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 hurries, and a total 7 rushing TD.

https://twitter.com/BradLoganCOTE/status/1815468165184331958

5.173(SEA comp) – Wide Receiver, Tennessee, Dont’e Thornton

This is another, more literal, attempt to find a replacement for Metcalf. There’s a sneaky group of BIG receivers that will be available in this draft, and most aren’t getting crazy buzz. Maybe that changes for the ones that flash at the combine, but for now I’m seeing Thornton available this late.

He’s listed 6’5″/214lbs. I believe the rep is that he will test well. And in 2024 he only had 26 catches, but he averaged 25.42 ypc on those catches, with 6 going for TD.

https://twitter.com/Volology/status/1837651506893291623

6.178(LAC trade DK) – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

One of my biggest complaints of John Schneider’s last decade running the show in Seattle has been the way he has mismanaged the center position. He traded away Max Unger and the offensive line, and the team’s success, has never been the same. And he’s screwed up time after time in the draft with his decisions (and indecisions) regarding centers.

Ironically, this year comes around and I don’t think the draft warrants an early pick at the center position. As I scan national big boards, the top ranked center isn’t coming off the board until the 5th round. Yeah, it’s potentially that empty.

So we don’t want to spend a high pick on a center, but we do need to take a shot on a potential upgrade to 2023 5th-rounder Olu Oluwatimi.

I like Slaughter. He’s listed 6’5″/308lbs. He’s a very smart player.

https://twitter.com/AKing_Evals/status/1802352928377753985

6.184(CHI) – Offensive Tackle, Kansas, Logan Brown

This pick is two things…1) it’s a de facto replacement for Stone Forsythe, who will be a free agent coming off IR, 2) it’s a lotto ticket to finding a decent hedge for Abe Lucas’ future at RT.

Brown is listed 6’6″/315lbs and I just like the temperment he brings.

6.210(SEA comp) – Wide Receiver, Auburn, Keandre Lambert Smith

It’s possible I’ve got way too many picks in this mock draft. There’s a reason I think it might be good to draft a high number, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s plausible. Trading draft picks isn’t as easy in reality as it is in mock draft simulators, etc. So if I were to cut down on picks, this would be the one that I’d lose first.

But I like the story of Lambert Smith. You may remember in 2015, the Seahawks had a safety named Keenan Lambert they got as an UDFA. That was Kam Chancellor’s half-brother. Well, with a first name that starts with ‘K’ and the last name Lambert, you might put together that Keandre is actually Kam’s nephew.

KLS played this year for Auburn after spending four years at Penn State. After swapping Lions for Tigers, Lambert led Auburn in receiving with 50 catches for 981 yards and 8 TD. Listed at 6’1″/182lbs, but I think he plays bigger than that. He’s very strong winning contested balls in the air. If you can get Jermaine Kearse production out of him (about 40 catches, 550 yards, an explosive play per game); that’s a great value.

https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1860519940853280846

7.234(SEA) – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton

There are a couple safeties in this draft that I wouldn’t mind seeing Seattle draft early, and giving Mike Macdonald his new Kyle Hamilton type. Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts is an absolute ball-hawk that is second in the country in INT this year, after tying for the national lead in the same category last year. And South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori is a huge safety at 6’3″/227lbs that should end up one of the top performers at all positions at the Combine. Either of those guys is worthy of a top 60 pick.

Singleton is probably not as complete of a player as the two aforementioned. He basically seems to have the kind of hands that show why he’s playing defense, not offense, and his career mark of 1 total INT all but confirms it. But the guy is one of my favorite tackling safeties I’ve seen. This could be the kind of guy whose ceiling is on special teams, but it might be the special teams player that goes to the Pro Bowl every year. Listed 6’3″/210lbs with 71 tackles on the year from safety.

https://twitter.com/HuskerEastNE/status/1843112305720271109

December Seamock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’ve turned the calendar to December, and with it comes an update my Seahawks seven round mock draft. A lot of this is carryover from the previous edition, because if you believe in something, you don’t change simply for the sake of content, or not repeating yourself. But, also, there’s quite a bit new in here.

As I’m writing this, the Seahawks are on their opening drive of their game versus the Jets. They currently hold the lead in the NFC West, and with it a draftpick at #20 overall. Picking in the twenties is historically no-man’s-land. This year, in particular, that could be especially true. So I’m trading down the #20. The first trade will be with Detroit for their picks at #32 and #64.

John Schneider is recently, openly of the mind that he won’t draft interior offensive line in the first round. A) we’re barely in the first round at pick #32, and B) there have been instances in the past when John drafted a college offensive tackle in the first round, who would go on to play the majority of their pro careers at guard. So this will be like that.

#1.32 – Offensive Line, West Virginia, Wyatt Milum

I had some consideration to take one of the better true guards in this class in a Donovan Jackson, Tate Ratledge, or Tyler Booker with this pick, but as I mentioned, that feels like something Schneider won’t do. Milum is the starting left tackle for WVU with very high marks in everything but arm length. As a result, most in the draft community believe Milum gets moved to guard. I’d be happy to be the team that gets to do that. Milum is 6’6″/317lbs with enough nastiness to send a message to the opposing team, and enough smarts to keep it within the rulebook.

#2.51 – Edge Rusher, Boston College, Donovan Ezeiruaku

It’s going to be interesting to see how the league handles how good this year’s class at rush linebacker is expected to be. I’m contending that we will see very strong players at the position lasting, basically, until the end of the second round. Seattle could have it’s choice between some combination of Mike Green, Kyle Kennard, Bradyn Swinson, Princely Umanmielen, Josaiah Stewart, Antwuan Powell-Ryland, and Ezeiruaku last until their native pick at #51.

I’m going with Donovan for a few reasons, one of which is his projectability metric that puts him top three amongst this class, and the #1 still on the board. Ezeiruaku is listed 6’2″/247lbs, and is expected to have arms well over 34″ at the combine weigh-in. He has a great combination of speed, power, and football IQ.

This is a draft that falls in a time when Seattle is still young into a new head coaching regime, and we need to draft volume to get Mike Macdonald more shots at his type of players. With that said, my second trade of this mock comes when I send pick #2.64 to the Raiders for picks #3.69 and #5.140.

#3.69 – Linebacker, Ole Miss, Chris Paul Jr

The linebacker spot is going to be crucial to nailing this draft, which in turn will make the Macdonald defense work. We’ve seen so much turnover at LB already under the former linebackers’ coach, and there is no guarantee that Ernest Jones will be back in 2025. We need to invest for the longterm in the position. This isn’t a great draft to find off the ball linebackers, and as such, this may not be early enough to target one. It may be a better strategy to take a stand-up LB before drafting an Edge-rush LB (which has way more depth).

For now, Paul is underrated nationally, and so I’m taking advantage of that to get him in the third round. Paul is listed 6’1″/235lbs, averages 7.33 tackles per game, and has 11.0 TFL, 9 QB hurries, 1 INT, and 4 PBU on the year for the very underrated Ole Miss defense.

Here, again, I’m looking to add volume picks to my draft board, and I trade #3.84 to Jacksonville for their picks at #3.92 and #4.129.

#3.92 – Quarterback, Louisville, Tyler Shough

In the biggest change from my previous mocks, I’ve abandoned taking Jaxson Dart in the second, and am now pivoting to the unexpected pick of Shough in the late third.

Shough is listed at 6’5″/225lbs and in 2024 he has posted 3195 yards, 23 TD, 6 INT, 62.7% completion, 8.2 ypa, and a 148.15 rating in his sixth-year senior season. Yes, Shough is an old prospect. He was originally the backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon in 2019. He was the primary starter for the Ducks in the Covid-shortened 2020 season. In 2021, he transferred to Texas Tech where he suffered through three injury-shortened seasons where he played a combined 15 games. In 2024, finally healthy, Shough has made every start after transferring again to Louisville.

In a year where Seattle projects to pick well outside the top 10 overall, and the QB landscape seems incredibly uncertain, I think you mitigate some of the risk by hunting value in a later round. Shough will fall in the draft because of his age, but perhaps, counter-intuitively, his age will also mean maturity and a faster development time in the pro’s. It’s worth discussing why recent career “comeback” success stories like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold (and to lesser extent Geno Smith) happened because those QB’s had __ number of reps as pro’s, or if they simply matured as men as they’ve aged. If it’s the latter; we may be cutting to the point by drafting a guy that is already 25.

Darnold was famously young (20 years old) when he was drafted in 2018, and he’s only found success this year at age 27. Mayfield didn’t start to cut down on his INT, and play smarter ball until his third year in Cleveland at the age of 25. Years earlier, Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre for multiple seasons. When he did finally get the chance to start, Rodgers was immediately very good. He was also 25 when that happened. Tom Brady’s first year starting came at 24 y/o. Drew Brees’ two worst years as a starter came when he was 23 and 24, then he turns 25 and makes his first Pro Bowl. Kurt Warner didn’t break through until he was 28. Tony Romo didn’t take the reins for Dallas until he was 26. Russell Wilson won his Super Bowl with Seattle when he was 25.

Right after acquiring Sam Howell last offseason, Schneider lauded how young Howell was, with specific reference to him being younger than multiple of the 2024 QB draft class. Howell is, in fact, only barely 24 years old, but by most reports Howell has been kind of terrible when given the reps in training camp and preseason.

I’m just not sure youth is something to be coveted at the quarterback position. The years of inexpensive team control is what is useful, but if you’re punting 1-2 years of that away because your guy needs to, basically, grow up…what’s the point? If you can cut to the chase by getting a guy in that 24-25 year range, and he’s ready quicker, you’ve actually sped up the clock of your rebuild/refresh. That’s my theory, anyways.

I like Shough. I like his arm-talent. I like his ability to play off-platform. He’s got a very underrated running ability (go back and look at some of his Oregon tape). And he’s got the kind of intangibles that generally seem to pay off longterm.

#4.129 – Tightend, Miami, Elijah Arroyo

This is a sneaky good class of TE. I think there will be value still to be found in the 4th round. In fact, when I was cross-checking who might still be available in the 4th round, I was shocked at how many names I found. I’m going with Arroyo because of the athleticism he puts on tape, but also because of the effort. There’s a play somewhere out there showing him chasing down an INT return backside after running like 70-80 yards…yeah, I’ll take that dude. And he’s listed 6’4″/245lbs and can burn.

#4.136 – Right Tackle, Kansas, Logan Brown

I tend to think we need to draft someone STAT that can replace Abe Lucas longterm. George Fant has barely played this year with injury. Stone Forsythe will be a free agent, and has also been injured. And neither of the 2024 draftpicks (Jerrell and Laumea) will be playing right tackle in the near future without other guys being injured.

I’ve been looking at various RT options all year and none have quite fit. I’ve looked at left tackles that we could move to RT, but that would require bigger draft capital investment. I’ve looked at many of the natural RT guys, but most had one kind of flaw or another.

I’ve only recently spent time looking at Logan Brown, and it was the kind of lightbulb moment you hope for. Listed as a 6’6″/315lb redshirt Junior, Brown began his career with Wisconsin in 2019. So he’s already spent four years as a Badger, before his last two with the Jayhawks. Why he’s listed as a rs-Junior is beyond me.

After watching many of the Kansas games from this year; I’m not sure why Brown isn’t more touted. There is, possibly, the age issue, and then I did notice his Kansas profile mentions he is a type 1 diabetic. I don’t know how that factors into his future as a pro. I just know I thought he had some of the best RT tape I’ve watched all year.

#5.140 – Defensive tackle, Ole Miss, JJ Pegues

Some of my player picks haven’t changed, we just need to tweak where we draft them. This part will continue all the way up to the draft.

JJ Pegues is one of my favorite guys in this entire draft. I just love everything about him. I love his versatility. I love his toughness. I love his personality. This would be like our new Brandon Mebane type of guy if we can add him.

Listed at 6’2″/325lbs, the Mayor has 41 tackles, 13.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 4 hurries, and a pretty ridiculous 7 rushing TD on the year.

#5.173 – Defensive tackle, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

We immediately go back to the DT class, but for a different kind of profile. Robinson is all of 6’6″/310lbs, and can play all up and down the line, and has played some fullback this year. For the season he has 11.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks, 6 hurries, 3 PBU, 1 FF, and 1 blocked kick.

#6.185 – Wide Receiver, Kansas, Quentin Skinner

I’m not gonna lie…two days ago I had Tennessee WR Dont’e Thornton in this spot. But then Saturday comes, Thornton gets a plug from Senior Bowl Director Jim Nagy pre-game, and then proceeds to catch three passes for 118 yards and two TD’s in the Vols’ game that day. I would love to get Thornton here, but I think his stock will be rising directly.

Skinner has a very similar profile, though. I found both of these guys in the last 10 days, or so, while hunting WR that would still be on the board late. There is still a possibility that DK Metcalf will be a cap casualty trade in the offseason. It feels like the Seahawks’ future cap can’t hold both DK and Geno (and maybe neither). So I’m looking for WR with some size, speed, and highpoint ability.

Skinner is listed 6’5″/195lbs. He could add a few pounds, but that’s what NFL weight training staff is for. His speed seems decent. He runs pretty good routes for his size. But mostly, I like his body control and the aggressiveness he has going after the ball. Kansas doesn’t throw the ball very much (#114 in the country before this week), and so Skinner only has 25 catches on the year, but he’s averaging 22.28 ypc and has 4 TD from those 25 grabs.

#6.210 – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter

In our third, and final, pick to help improve the offensive line; I’m taking Florida center Jake Slaughter. Listed 6’5″/308lbs, Slaughter reminds me quite a bit of Max Unger. This is a VERY smart player. If it doesn’t work out for him as a player, he will certainly be able to coach.

#7.236 – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton

I’m a big fan of drafting to the strength(s) of a draft class, and this year is very strong at running back, which I haven’t addressed to this point. I wouldn’t mind if we drafted a RB pretty much anywhere on day three, but there’s also the points that we don’t necessarily NEED a RB, and with the depth of the class and the decreased positional value…we might get the guy we wanted late as a rookie free agent.

I’m pivoting to a pet project pick. I spotted Singleton some weeks ago, and the more I watch him, the more I appreciate him. Maybe not the highest floor player, but he’s so reliable the way he plays in run support, and the way he tackles. At minimum, he’ll be a very good special teams player. Listed at 6’3″/210lbs, I’d love to see what he could become in the Macdonald scheme.

So there we have it. An intentionally trenches-heavy draft. This is the way more of the recent Super Bowl teams have been built. And we’re also back-filling behind 2025 free agents: Jarran Reed, Johnathan Hankins, Laken Tomlinson, Stone Forsythe, Ernest Jones, Kvon Wallace, Pharaoh Brown, Trevis Gipson, Laviska Shenault, and, in a sense, Connor Williams, who left a wee bit early.

Hawktober Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

After falling to the Niners on Thursday Night Football, and their record dropping to 3-3, the Seahawks now stand to draft at #14 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Mike Macdonald coached defense ranks 25th in the league in points allowed, with the rush defense ranking 27th. QB Geno Smith leads the league in passing yards, but ranks 20th in passer rating and is tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown. And the offensive line has run-blocked to the tune of 27th in the league.

There’s a LOT wrong with this club right now, and we’re progressing to a draft that is extremely light on 1st round talents, and isn’t particularly deep overall either. Some of the positions this draft looks strong at; Seattle doesn’t have as immediate needs (like edge rusher and running back). It’s really not looking like a good situation for Seattle to make a quick rebuild.

In terms of the first round…a lot of times the media will pre-emptively stack their first round projections with guys that come from the annual “Freaks List”. This year, I’d say there’s maybe 8 of 32 (25%) that overlap. Oh, so, is the first round stacked with guys that are grading out elite or have top of class production through six weeks? Not really. It’s kind of a bananas year.

With this in mind…and this specifically applies to the state of the draft class in the middle of October 2024…I think Seattle should trade back their first round pick. If/when the media starts re-ranking the class, and we get more guys that fit what Seattle needs, then maybe I’ll change my mock to reflect that with a stick-and-pick edition.

Seattle currently projects to having nine picks after they are awarded their slate of compensatory picks. We don’t need to add more volume. I just want to re-position a little bit in the first two rounds. I like the look of trading with Buffalo. The Bills have ten picks projected, included two in the second round. Pending their performance this week in MNF, they should be drafting between #21 to maybe #23 in the first round. Their second round picks are roughly #54 and #64. There is a scenario we should get #54, but for now to make the numbers work; Seattle gives #1.14 overall for Buffalo’s #1.21 + #2.64 + #4.137.

#1.21 – OT, West Virginia, Wyatt Milum

There are obviously reasons Seattle should try to fix their defense urgently. A guy like Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams would immediately improve our run defense. And there are certainly edge rushers available in this range that look pretty special and would be a good BPA pick. But when I reverse-draft; I think I can get a nose tackle later because of position value, and I can get an edge guy later because of depth in this class.

You know what I can’t get too much later? Offensive line.

Well, let me clarify. If Seattle is replacing Stone Forsythe…I think they can get one of those on day three. But…if we’re needing to truly commit to replacing Abraham Lucas; I think we need to do that pretty early in the draft.

Milum is listed 6’6″/317lbs…which is pretty ideal measurements for an OT. The guy is country strong, too. He’s been playing LT for the Mountaineers, but I’ll move him to RT similar to how the Chargers drafted Joe Alt and moved him to RT, while leaving incumbent LT Rashawn Slater in place.

#2.48 – QB, Mississippi, Jaxson Dart

If Seattle is truly prepared to draft a QB of the future; why not stick at #14 and take him there? As we saw last year; the guy(s) we need probably don’t fall out of the top 10. We’re gonna have to try to pull some Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson shit. Which, also, seems to be the only way John Schneider is comfortable to take a shot on a QB.

To me, Dart is still a top two QB in this draft, but he’s the one we can get. He’s hitting 70% completion, over 10.0 ypa, and over 4 to 1 TD to INT.

#2.64 – OG, Georgia, Tate Ratledge

It’s perhaps foolhardy to take two OL in our first three picks when there are equally big needs on defense, but I just think it’s such a big need with such a shallow class available. And Ratledge is probably only available this late because he’s currently shelved for another month with an ankle surgery recovery. If he gets back in time for a few regular season games and a playoff push; his stock probably climbs out of this range.

#3.79 – DT, Mississippi, JJ Pegues

Pegues is one of my favorite players in this class, and so I’m allowing myself to draft him well before the national media are valuing him. Mississippi has the #1 run defense in the country, and JJ is the (literally) biggest part of that at 6’2″/325lbs. The Rebels use him all up and down the DL, plus he’s become a pretty frequent collaborator on offense as a running back. He’d be such a unique player to add to the Macdonald defense.

#4.115 – Edge, Marshall, Mike Green

There are still a few very intriguing passrush linebackers available into this range. Kyle Kennard, Collin Oliver, and Green come to mind. I’m going with Green for the repertoire, and some of the projectability metrics. Listed 6’4″/248lbs and a redshirt sophomore, but this is his 4th year in college. His production of 10.5 TFL, 8.0 sacks, and 10 hurries all rank top 5 in the class. If he can add another 7 lbs of muscle, even better.

#4.136 – RB, Iowa, Kaleb Johnson

I don’t think I had room for a RB in my last mock, but with the extra pick from Buffalo leading to back-to-back picks in the fourth round; I think it’s good draft practice to take one in this very strong RB class.

Johnson has been one of the top two most-explosive RB this year with Ashton Janty. His style reminds me of somewhere between Arian Foster and Shaun Alexander.

Even with Ken Walker missing a couple games to start this year; Seattle has only given third-string RB Kenny Mcintosh 3 carries all year. So, I don’t think they believe in him for some reason.

#4.137 – LB, Mississippi, Chris Paul Jr

There is no position in this draft that I’ve spent more time on that has yielded worse results than off the ball linebacker. I’ve looked at the freak athletes…they don’t have good instincts. I’ve looked at the guys with good season stats…they look slow. I’ve looked at the guys projected high by other media outlets…they don’t come across like they can handle the playbook in interviews.

So, as much as I’d like to use one of the second round picks on the “QB of the defense” for Macdonald, I just don’t think the value is there.

Chris Paul Jr is my compromise. Listed 6’1″/235lbs he’s got good size. On the season he has 48 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 7 hurries, 3 PBU. It’s a well-rounded production line. He can blitz, he can cover, he can get sideline to sideline. In his tape he looks athletic enough.

#5.172 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

It seems like a pretty strong class of tight ends, which may allow for some patience to draft one. Bowling Green TE Harold Fanning is top 10 in receiving overall for the year. Penn State TE Tyler Warren had 17 catches and over 200 yards this last weekend. Guys like Colston Loveland, Orande Gadsden, Anthony Torres, Brant Kuithe, Jake Briningstool, Elijah Arroyo, Luke Lachey, Gunnar Helm, Eli Stowers have all popped in one way or another.

I’m going with Ferguson, probably because of recency bias, because I just thought he looked awesome this week versus Ohio State. Listed 6’5″/255lbs and averaging 16.05 ypc on the year.

#6.193 – DL, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

Seattle is due to have both Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins hit free agency after this year, so two DT is in the draft is probably a must. JJ Pegues is a good run-stuffer that can passrush a bit, and Ty Robinson is a good passrusher that can play the run a bit. Ole Miss is the #1 run defense in the country, but Nebraska is no slouch at #4.

Robinson is listed at 6’6″/310lbs, but if you told me he was 285, I’d believe it. He has 6.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 2 hurries, 3 PBU, and a blocked kick on the year. Like Pegues, I think you can use him all over the DL…and Nebraska does.

#6.210 – LB, California, Teddye Buchanan

Seattle really needs to draft two linebackers with both Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker only signed to one-year deals. Maybe they’ll go back to free agency for a linebacker like a Nick Bolton as their top overall target.

Buchanan is listed 6’2″/235lbs, and has 56 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 3 hurries, 3 PBU, and a FF on the year.

#7.228 – DS, Virginia, Jonas Sanker

Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle took any of, like, 10 position groups with this pick. They could triple down on OL or DL. They could take a WR or a CB, which they haven’t taken thus far. I’m going with safety because I’m following the free agency lead. K’von Wallace may walk after the year, so to replace him I’m going with Sanker.

Sanker is listed 6’1″/210lbs. Senior Bowl reported this week he runs 4.4. On the season he has 49 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, 1 hurry, 3 PBU. He’d be a great special teams guy at minimum.

Overall, this is a back to basics draft. We’re going heavy in the trenches again until John Schneider gets his philosophy in order and starts picking the right OL/DL guys. We’re going QB, RB, and LB. Honestly, if we can get somewhere near what the Commanders did this last draft when they got QB Jayden Daniels, DT Jerzhan Newton, DB Mike Sainristil, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee, DS Dom Hampton…that’d be a pretty solid draft towards a quick turnaround.