By Jared Stanger

I am sooo ready for this draft to happen. Let’s just do it already. So for this mock draft, I’m not going to spend a ton of time talking about the scouting breakdown of the players. I’ve written about most of these players before. This will be a bit more about how to execute acquiring this collection of players.

We’ll start by trading back the #18 overall. I’m going to hope New England has their sights set on QB Lamar Jackson and will move up to get him. I will trade Seattle’s #18 + #120 for New England’s #31 + #63 + #95. This trade is within 2.5 pts on the new trade chart.

And then, somewhere between the start of the 1st and the middle of the 2nd, I’m trading Earl Thomas to Dallas for their 2018 and 2019 2nd round picks (#50 this year). Then I flip #50 plus one of our 5th’s to Houston (who don’t have any picks in rounds 1, 2, and 5) for two of their three 3rd rounders. #50 + #146 for #68 + #80.

Seattle has had trades with both New England and Houston in the last year, so there is presumably good relationships there to accomplish these trades. I’m trying to think if Schneider has ever done a deal with Jerry but coming up blank. But I think it’s a reasonable deal.

These three trades would put Seattle’s board at:

1.31, 2.63, 3.68, 3.80, 3.95, 5.141, 5.156, 5.168, 7.226, 7.248, 7.250

That is 11 picks. We manage to stay in the 1st round, and also manage to get four picks on day two. Seattle has often been mentioned wanting to draft 10 times this year (and most years), but it’s pretty easy to find use of 11 or 12 picks.

Here we go.

#31 – OL Billy Price

In a first draft to this final mock I had Seattle trading with Cleveland and starting off at #33. I’m a little nervous Price doesn’t last that long. So I modified the whole thing to the New England trade.

I’m hoping with a good group of interior OL available in this draft and Price’s lack of athletic testing after tearing a pec muscle on the bench press at the combine, he will be available here. Price’s most recent position was Center, but he’s also had at least one year playing each of right and left guard. When I dug it up, I kinda preferred Billy’s tape at LG. Either way, between he and Pocic you’ll have both guard spots set for three years. Plus, Price is as S-T-R as they come.

#63 – DE Duke Ejiofor

After going OL first, it’s a no-brainer that they go DL next. I have strong suspicions this pick at this value might go to Rasheem Green if he lasts, but I’m sticking with the guy I’ve had all year in Duke. I just think he’s the better player of the “Michael Bennett” types. He’s more pro-ready today, and there’s still some upside left in him.

In the past I’ve done pretty well looking for a value DL in guys like Preston Smith and Yannick Ngakoue, and Duke is my hope to be that guy this year.

#68 – Shaquem Griffin

For me, this pick came down to Deshon Elliott at Strong Safety and Shaquem Griffin. I’m going with Shaquem for his presence, his speed, and his versatility. He might be the strong safety I wanted in Elliott, but he also might be a SAM, and/or a 3rd down DPR (designated pass rusher). I mean, the possibilities are pretty intriguing. It’s tough to totally pin down where Shaquem’s draft value will be, and this may be a reach, but I’d rather just get it done.

#80 – CB Isaac Yiadom

Another guy, like Duke, that I’ve been with for most of the year and I’m just sticking with him to the end. He checks pretty much all of the boxes of a Seattle CB. I’d like to get him a little bit later than this, but it’s not worth getting cute. Pair him with Shaquill, Shaquem, and hopefully a stud FS, and you might have a whole new LOB.

#95 – Jaylen Samuels

Samuels is more similar to Billy Price, in that I wasn’t really thinking about him most of the year because of position labeling. But after he ran 4.54s at 6’0″/225lbs it sort of dawned on me that he’s a straight running back. He’s certainly not much different than David Johnson at 6’1″/224lbs, 4.50s (Johnson has way better jumps, but the agility scores are VERY similar).

I’ve had a sense for a while that Seattle would go with one of the Scarbrough/Ballage/Freeman type of RB this draft, and after some late cramming on his tape; I kinda feel like Samuels is the best of the group. He’d be a dope replacement for Prosise, and has the upside to be really good considering how much he checks off the S-T-R list.

#141 – FS Dane Cruikshank

This is a bit of a flyer. Having traded away Earl, we need to find a new Free Safety. I don’t necessarily need THEE answer at FS (I have my eye on a guy as Seattle’s first pick in 2019), but I want a guy with some upside to compete with Macdougald and/or Thompson for 2018.

Cruikshank has mixed projection as both corner and safety, but I’m projecting him at FS because of his 31″ arms, 4.41s speed, and really nice tackling.

The other option for me here (depending on the board) is Tony Brown, who I also would like to try at FS. Brown concerns me with his back to the QB, but sliding him deep to single-high FS, with the play always in front of him, and his 4.3 speed, may show him in a new light.

#156 – TE Durham Smythe

Arguably the best blocking TE in the class. Others may want an offensive weapon at TE, but A) I’m not sure that fits with Seattle’s re-commitment to the run game, B) I’m not sure there are enough of those guys available in this draft to overpay to get one. I mean, there’s basically four or five above-average TE athletes this year. And that’s not a very high bar. Don’t chase what the earth hasn’t provided.

Besides, Smythe is underrated as a received due to Notre Dame’s problems at QB. Go back and watch him in the Senior Bowl.

#168 – DL Jullian Taylor

Taylor is getting lots of late helium thanks to an impressive pro day performance. If you can get him here in the 5th, I think he’s a better value than a guy like Taven Bryan in the 1st. Jullian will be a sort of replacement for Malik McDowell that you hope you can get both 5tech and 3tech reps from.

#226 – QB J.T. Barrett

Personally, I value Barrett in the 5th round, and if I hadn’t traded away that other 5th I would take him there. But in most mocks, including the consensus mock, Barrett is frequently seen as an UDFA. I’ll take him here and love having a guy with his resume backing Russell up.

#248 – LB Jacob Martin

These last two picks are basically just guys you don’t think you can get in undrafted free agency, but want to make sure you get them on board. I could do anything here…another running back, another linebacker, a placekicker, a wide receiver. There were a ton of interesting options that came through VMAC as official visits. I’m going with Martin because of his athleticism to potentially play linebacker, mixed with his experience as an edge rusher. We didn’t draft a true Cliff Avril type (instead going with a Bennett and then a McDowell), so this is a bit of an undersized attempt at a Cliff. But it also gives your new defensive coordinator (a former linebacker) two new guys that can both run under 4.59.

#250 – PK Trevor Moore

If Seattle hadn’t signed Sebastian Janikowski they might have been able to get a kicker in UDFA. But with two PK’s currently rostered, I don’t think a rookie would choose to be one of three. As a draftpick he won’t have a choice. Moore is one of the better kickers I’ve found from 40+ yards.

Final tally: 4 offense, 6 defense, 1 special teams. I’m missing a WR, and I’d like to get a second RB, but those are both spots Seattle has had some success going through UDFA. With the RB depth in this class there should still be guys left in free agency. At WR, the team may have knowingly added via trade and vet free agency because they didn’t love the draft class.

1.31 Billy Price
2.63 Duke Ejiofor
3.68 Shaquem Griffin
3.80 Isaac Yiadom
3.95 Jaylen Samuels
5.141 Dane Cruikshank
5.156 Durham Smythe
5.168 Jullian Taylor
7.226 JT Barrett
7.248 Jacob Martin
7.250 Trevor Moore

By Jared Stanger

I’m a big fan of what I call drafting backwards. It’s in part an evaluation of the players that will be available in later rounds that you see as undervalued, and also part evaluation of position groups that dry up earlier than others. The farther back you start, the harder it is to predict which players will still be there. So for this story we’re going to focus on the 3rd round.

Seattle has historically had pretty good luck in the 3rd round. Russell Wilson is obviously their biggest success story in the 3rd, but Tyler Lockett and Shaquill Griffin have also been good finds in the 3rd.

If you can find a player that you really, really like that is pretty unanimously entrenched in the 3rd round, you can take his position group off of your board in the earlier rounds, and focus on other spots that may have more significant talent cliffs. Here are my 3rd round picks at most positions:

Cornerback – Isaac Yiadom

Isaac Yiadom is classic Seahawk CB size: 6’1″/190lbs, 32 1/4″ arms. He has adequate athleticism at 4.52s forty, 34.5″ vert, 10’00” broad, and a solid 6.85 cone. Yiadom is an excellent tackler who excels in Boston College’s press-man scheme with incredible patience and press technique. He maintains consistent over-the-top position with fluid hips to adjust for comebacks. And he plays extremely hard all the way through the whistle.

Yiadom has the most pro-ready technique of all corners in this class:

This is an example of Isaac’s motor:

Draftscout ranks Yiadom as the #100 overall player.

Defensive End – Duke Ejiofor

Duke Ejiofor is a guy I’ve been very high on all year who was forced to have shoulder labrum surgery after the end of the season. That injury/surgery has prevented Ejiofor from testing athletically, and has dropped his value into the 3rd round. His combine weigh-in was: 6’3″/264lbs, with massive 34 7/8″ arms. Wake Forest had Duke listed at 6’4″/275lbs during the season, and that would be a weight that I would target playing him as it helps allow him to continue playing with inside/outside versatility. This is the guy I target to play Michael Bennett’s vacated role.

It’s honestly a little baffling to me that Ejiofor isn’t valued higher. He has one of the best pass-rush repertoires in this class. He’s a smart player that makes many plays just based on great reads. And the unconfirmed reports of his athleticism suggest he’s a very good athlete.

To showcase Ejiofor I’m going to show some of his specific pass rush moves. Starting with the best spin in the class.

Inside to outside spin:

Outside to inside spin:

When Duke gets snaps inside; he moves to using a swim which is really solid:

This two hand swipe is really effective for him:

Then, when he has the outside rush setup, he has a nice inside counter:

There are more moves with lesser refinement (like his long-arm), but that still show promise. He also is a well-rounded DE playing the run and short passing game very nicely.

Draftscout has Ejiofor as the #120 overall.

Defensive tackle – Derrick Nnadi

As a general rule, I’m not a huge fan of drafting DT early. Unless you have a pretty good idea you’re getting Aaron Donald; I’d rather wait until the 3rd round.

Derrick Nnadi is a 6’1″/317lb, penetrating 1-tech in the mold of Jordan Hill.

Power is Nnadi’s best trait:

Draftscout has Nnadi as the #101 overall player.

Linebacker – Shaquem Griffin

Shaquem Griffin is such an interesting story with an interesting projection. At 6’0″/227lbs he is the size (and speed) of a big safety. He’s primarily played DE in the last two years. And most project him to be a LB as a pro.

I’ve primarily been thinking about him as a Safety because I want to use that speed, but recently I’m reminded of what a great passrusher Quem is. Whether you call him a S or a LB; he needs to be up in the box with chances at rushing the QB.

True sideline to sideline speed:

Draftscout has Griffin as the #89 overall player.

Quarterback – Kyle Lauletta

I don’t love a QB this early for Seattle with all of the other postions that need help, and the QB expected to be a backup. But clearly Seattle has been digging in to the QB market.

My observation is that Seattle seems to be looking for a QB at least 6’2″/210lbs, and they prefer a good athlete with a 4.7s forty. Lauletta is 6’3″/222lbs with only a 4.81s forty, but generally good athleticism. I’m generally okay with a QB with lesser armstrength and better FBIQ, but it’s tough to guess what Seattle looks for when the only QB they’ve drafted under PCJS is Russell Wilson.

Personally, I think Lauletta’s armstrength is fine. More importantly, he’s very accurate deep.

Again, during the Sr Bowl:

Draftscout has Lauletta as the #93 overall.

Running Back – Royce Freeman

There have often been running backs drafted in the 3rd round that have become really successful pro’s. It’s one of the best positions to wait on (especially in good RB classes).

I like Royce Freeman more than most. I think he’s a smart player, super reliable, super tough, without any major holes to his game. At 6’0″/229lbs he’s big enough to be your workhorse. With nice hands he’s versatile enough to be a 3rd down specialist. At 4.54s forty and 6.90 cone, he’s a better athlete than given credit for.

Draftscout has Freeman as the #105 overall.

Safety – Deshon Elliott

I can only assume Elliott’s projection is because he only ran a 4.58s forty. Which isn’t even that bad. On tape, he has some of the best tackling, best reads, best ball skills of all safeties this class.

Deshon is 6’1″/210lbs…not an overwhelming size, but big and physical enough to hold down a Strong Safety slot. Fourth in the country in 2017 for Interceptions.

Nice physicality:

What I like best about him is the way he reads the offense:

Draftscout has Elliott as the #178 overall. Ridiculous.

Now, the other thing this list suggests to me is the positions that don’t fit. Offensive line has a pretty steep cliff after the 2nd round, to me. Tight End is super shallow to begin with, but if you target a run-blocking TE like Durham Smythe/Will Dissly you can get that in like the 5th round. Wide receiver is a position that I think you can find throughout this draft, but 3rd round isn’t the best fit.

 

Winning drafts is about two things: nailing your early round picks, and hitting on a couple midround picks. And if you go into the draft knowing how you can draft backwards; then you’re already ahead of the game.

 

On Friday March 30th, 2018…Good Friday…everything changed.

And I was not prepared.

You’re not prepared when you get that call from your older sister and she has an unmistakable seriousness in her voice.

You’re not prepared when you turn the corner into your childhood neighborhood and you can’t get to your house because of all of the emergency vehicles in the cul de sac.

You’re not prepared when you reach your driveway and your younger sister, who arrived just before you, is awash in emotion and tears.

You’re not prepared when you enter your own childhood home and he’s on the kitchen floor with six to ten strangers are all working feverishly around him trying to get a heartbeat.

You’re not prepared when they load him into the ambulance and you can see through the front windshield the corner of the stretcher rise and fall to each compression of CPR.

You’re not prepared when the ambulance never leaves.

You’re not prepared when the lead paramedic gets out of the ambulance, looks at his watch, and starts walking up the driveway towards you.

You’re not prepared for the words.

And then comes the shit that you really had no clue how unprepared for you’d be.

You’re not prepared for the fact that ambulances transport to hospitals and don’t transport to medical examiners.

You’re not prepared to see his lifeless body brought back into your house and laid on the couch that sits in front of the framed picture of HIS mom and his step-dad.

You’re not prepared for the color of his face.

You’re not prepared to see the truest and deepest pain you’ve ever seen: when your mom kneels beside her partner of 40 years, and weeps uncontrollably. You’re not fucking prepared for that. THAT is pain.

You’re not prepared for death. I wasn’t.

On Friday night, as I stood frozen, compelled by a force inside me not to walk away, my stepfather, who gave me his name and raised me as his own, died inside that ambulance at the bottom of the driveway of my childhood home. He was only 68.

 

************************************************************************************

 

In hindsight, it was a blessing that the paramedics fought as long as they did to try to save him because all of four of us kids, and the three of his five grandkids that are old enough to understand what was happening were able to be there. We were all able to have a private moment to say something to him before the medical examiner came. I’m thankful for that.

I’m thankful that about two weeks ago it was his birthday, and the whole family was together and had a beautiful evening, and I gave him a really big hug as I left that night. That was the last time I saw him and spoke to him. My last moment with him was a hug. Internally, I pretty instantly had so many regrets about big chunks of my relationship with him over the years. But my last moment with him was that hug.

I’m thankful that my older sister is such a rock. Resilient and graceful.

I’m thankful that both of my brothers-in-law, and soon-to-be sister-in-law, are so compassionate and giving.

I’m thankful that friends of the family brought over an entire Easter dinner.

But there is sadness, too.

I’m sad, and regret, that I was always so difficult.

I’m sad that my younger sister’s kids are too young to have formed strong memories of their Boompa.

I’m sad that my oldest nephew was recently growing so close to his Boompa…he’d walk over from his house and together they’d watch random things no teenager would normally have interest in, like “The Waltons”…and I was sad at how much he was affected on Friday night.

I’m sad that my brother won’t have his dad at his wedding this summer.

But mostly I’m sad for all that my mom has lost in this one fell swoop. Like, you can sort of tell how parents change once all of the kids are grown up and out of the house, and that “empty-nest” feeling hits. But now compound that by a factor of thousands. Maybe it’s over 15,000…for every day they had been together.

15, 000 days is a lot. It’s a lot of habits. It’s a lot of co-dependence. It’s a lot of physical property. It’s a lot of memories.

 

With almost 30 years in that same house, the volume of physical stuff in there is incredible, but it’s nothing compared to the memories. After 30 years, every single nook and cranny of that house has a memory association to him.

I watched my mom trying to process it all, and already dealing with the memories. I watched her, as she listened to the fire department chaplain, silently notice dad’s slippers stowed under the chair she stood beside, and then step into them one at a time.

I watched her Sunday sit at his favorite spot on the couch.

I listen to her.

I listen as she says things like, “I don’t know how to be alone.” I listen to her literally account for the very few months across her entire life when she lived alone. I listen to her plainly asking that all us kids come, visit, stay.

I hear you.

In my mind I already know that I will start to go over there 2-3 nights a week for dinner. I know that we will need to help her move out of that five bedroom house. I know that we need to pivot to supporting one another, and especially her, going forward.

I wasn’t prepared for any of this, but I will learn and adapt quickly to help her. I wasn’t prepared for death, but I will try to be more prepared for life. I promise.

I promise I will try to be a better son, brother, uncle, friend, man. I’ve already gone to someone that means a whole lot to me to ask her forgiveness for how I had recently acted. I meant every word I said.

I promise I will always think of you every time the Bears lose, and every time Elvis comes on the radio, and every time I write my last name, and every time Kevin Costner says, “Wanna have a catch?”

I love you.

Goodbye, Dad.

By Jared Stanger

The NFL Scouting Combine concluded on Monday, the league announced Tuesday the complete order of the this year’s draft, and so I figured it was a great time for my next seven round Seahawks mock draft.

If you missed it earlier, here is the breakdown of where Seattle currently has picks:

1.18
4.120
5.141 (Brown)
5.146 (Lynch)
5.168 (Marsh)
7.226 (Kearse)
7.248 (Brock)
7.250 (Marsh)

Eight picks total, but seven of them on day three. It just will not do. We need trades. We need 2nd’s and 3rd’s. Seattle has been a frequent entrant in the league trade rumors with the primary names mentioned being Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Michael Bennett. You’d have to figure at least one of them gets moved. Wouldn’t be surprised at two.

Personally, I’m moving the one that is the biggest asset of the three, who also happened to have walked up to another team and asked them to acquire him. And I will give Earl what he wants (or who he wants), and trade him to Dallas. Now, putting the right value on what Earl would fetch in return is a whole ‘nother matter.

Because it’s a hypothetical; I’m trading Earl to Dallas for their 2018 2nd rounder (#50), 2018 compensatory 5th (#171), and their 2019 2nd rounder. This moves Seattle UP to ten picks, and Dallas down to eight.

In addition to this, I will trade Seattle back from #18. Cleveland has a million picks, and quite a few in the range I would target moving Seattle to, so it’s an easy projection: #1.18 for Cleveland’s #2.33, #2.64, #4.123.

So the new, modified Seattle draft becomes:
2.33
2.50
2.64
4.120
4.123
5.141
5.146
5.168
5.171
7.226
7.248
7.250

Holy Shit, that’s a lot of picks. But really, I need one more. If you’re in a rebuild, you’ll need a lot of bricks.

#2.33 – RB Ronald Jones

In the “what have you done for me lately” world of draft speculating, Rojo missed the combine after pulling a hammy in his first forty, while Derrius Guice ran well. So people want to talk about Guice again as RB2, and Jones is more high to mid 2nd round. Blessing in disguise.

Quick aside on Guice…a few weeks, maybe a couple months ago, he was on Instagram live…I tuned in some time after it started, but when I did it was just him sitting in front of the phone/camera in a barely-lit room…somewhere behind the camera you hear a female voice…then Guice looks at whoever the woman was, and in an entirely-too-terrifying voice, he barks at her, “shut the fuck up”. This happened. I’ve interpreted it how I’ve interpreted it, and I have removed him from my board.

I think Ronald Jones has the potential to be special. At his floor, he gives you Alvin Kamara. At his best, he gives you peak Jamaal Charles.

#2.50 – OL Tyrell Crosby

I’m about 80% sure Seattle, and their new OL coach, are looking more for a Left Guard from a pretty solid interior line class, than a Tackle. I think Virginia Tech LG Wyatt Teller is a pretty legit name to watch, but he is probably available a round later than this.

The thing about Tyrell is: he can back-up (or replace) Duane Brown at some point, he can be your starting right tackle immediately…could he play Guard? I mean, he can’t be worse than Joeckel. Tyrell might be the 2nd-nastiest OL available this draft behind Quenton Nelson, so his temperament is great.

#2.64 – DE Duke Ejiofor

I could see Seattle targeting an edge rusher sooner than this. Potentially losing both Cliff Avril and Mike Bennett in the same offseason could be disastrous. But I just can’t stop feeling like Ejiofor is better than many of the DE projecting ahead of him. And Duke missing the combine after having recent labrum surgery kind of doesn’t help him, but does help the team looking to draft him.

Duke is my Mike Bennett mirror. Same size. Same usage (as hybrid DE/DT).

I thought about doing some more trading around to put Seattle into the 3rd round, but I really like the 2nd so much. It’s possible some of these 4th-5th round guys might come off in the 3rd round. I certainly have 3rd round grades on a couple of them.

#4.120 – DE/LB/S Shaquem Griffin

There’s a lot of split opinion on Shaquem. Many media (and Richard Sherman) think that his combine performance has moved him up into the 3rd round. But the report that came out Tuesday that Seattle was the only team to give Quem a formal interview at the combine suggests that the league still views him as different. Flawed, maybe. A mystery, at minimum.

Questions about his hand. Questions about which position he’ll play. I just don’t care. Get the guy in the building and find ways to use him. He is beyond special. Bigger than any safety at the combine. Faster than most of the corners. More sacks the last two years than Marcus Davenport and Arden Key. FIND.WAYS.TO.USE.HIM.

#4.123 – CB Isaac Yiadom

This really isn’t a great draft for the long, Seattle-type corners. It’s better for smaller guys that would pretty much be reserved for nickel in Seattle. And in that nickel category, this draft is exceptional.

The one guy that fits the bill for me in all the attributes I’m looking for is Yiadom. 6’1″/190lbs, 32 1/4″ arms, 4.52s forty, 10’00” broad jump, awesome motor. And the tape is fantastic press-man tape.

#5.141 – S Jeremy Reaves

I tend to think Shaquem ends up at Strong Safety, though he does have enough speed to play single-high Free. So we’re going to need another pick devoted to FS. Reaves is my pick. Similar size, similar speed, off the charts intangibles and football IQ.

#5.146 – TE Durham Smythe

Seattle currently needs two TE. Preferably, a receiving TE and a blocking TE. There are approximately three worthwhile receiving TE in this class. And you will have to pay a pretty penny to get one of them.

But the blocking TE are underrated and one of the better uses of a late pick. Smythe isn’t an athlete, but he runs good routes and he has good hands. I like the work he does as a blocker. He’s the TE you want if you’re planning on re-establishing your run game.

#5.168 – QB Kyle Lauletta

I’m not actually sure if Lauletta lasts this long, but backup QB isn’t a spot I want to spend higher than a 5th round pick on. Hopefully you get one of Lauletta or JT Barrett.

I think the pro comp for Kyle is Alex Smith. Very similar in their athleticism. Both get negged for their arm strength, but really both are fine.

#5.171 – WR Keke Coutee

Another guy I could see drafted earlier than this. Coutee didn’t hit the forty at the combine like I thought he might, but that will help him last this late.

If reports are true, Schottenheimer may like a talent like Keke. He would provide a great deep-threat replacement for Paul Richardson should Paul sign elsewhere.

#7.226 – DE/OLB Dorance Armstrong

This is a bit of an upside flyer. You like Armstrong’s 2016 tape and hope he can return to that form under better usage/coaching.

This is the Avril hedge.

#2.248 – RB Chris Warren III

My guess is that Seattle drafts two RB in a good RB class. Jones gives you lightning. I think Seattle will look late rounds for thunder. I think one option is Louisville’s Malik Williams, but another is the son of former Seattle RB Chris Warren.

Warren is a massive man at 6’2″/247lbs. He shows decent blocking. He averaged over 12ypc on his 2017 receptions. And, in spite of his less-than-spectacular forty time of 4.69s; Warren is over 57th percentile athlete (relative to his weight).

#7.250 – PK Trevor Moore

After missing on Harrison Butker in the draft last year, and Blair Walsh missing on Sundays, I’d like to see Seattle actually draft a kicker this year. I’ve targeted Trevor Moore for his value and accuracy over 40 yards.

The dirty dozen, final picks:

2.33 RB Jones
2.50 OT Crosby
2.64 DE Ejiofor
4.120 SS Griffin
4.123 CB Yiadom
5.141 FS Reaves
5.146 TE Smythe
5.168 QB Lauletta
5.171 WR Coutee
7.226 DE Armstrong
7.248 RB Warren
7.250 PK Moore

Double-dips at DE and RB, a few cool new players for the LOB, and a few players at positions of need. I passed on DT cause it’s a poor class, and I passed on LB cause a) it may be Shaquem, b) may be able to find one in UDFA.

By Jared Stanger

Saturday at the NFL Scouting Combine brought us field tests from QB, WR, and TE. I won’t be writing about the QB’s (I’m sure you can find plenty of others that have), but here are some of my favorite performances from the pass catchers.

We have SPARQ numbers from 3sigmaathlete.com as well, so we can already look at the composite athleticism. At TE, we can now see how this class compares with the stacked 2017 class.

Last year, there were nine TE that tested over 50th percentile. This year, there are four (but one is Jaylen Samuels…a more likely fullback). Last year, there were seven TE that tested as at least a sigma. This year, there’s only one…Mike Gesicki.

Almost a year ago to today’s date I tweeted that Gesicki would be the 2018 TE1, and today he proved me wrong.

He’s not TE1…he’s an extremely large WR. At least that’s what his athleticism suggests. A 4.54s forty, a 41.5″ vertical, a 10’9″ broad jump, a 4.10s shuttle, and a 6.76s three-cone. It all adds up to 2.4 sigma…which is better than all TE this year by 1.5 sigma, and all of the very good 2017 TE by 0.5 sigma. It’s an unbelievable performance.

Gesicki finishes 52% better athlete than frequently mentioned TE1 Hayden Hurst, and 70% better than Mark Andrews. Dallas Goedert has not yet tested. The numbers will send scouts and GM’s back to the tape on Gesicki. Typically, there aren’t many TE drafted in the 1st round, but Gesicki will likely now be one.

The 2018 WR class is also down athletically from the 2017 group. We saw 12 unique WR over 1.0 sigma last year, and only three have passed the mark this year. Those three: Dylan Cantrell, DJ Moore, and Courtland Sutton.

Sutton is the guy that I’ve had as my WR1 all year. His composite 86th percentile puts him 59% better than Christian Kirk and 79% better than Calvin Ridley. So, I think Courtland made some money today, but he’s not the guy that is my WR winner.

My WR winner is Tre’Quan Smith. After finding out about Brian Schottenheimer being hired as the new OC, reading about his preference for the air Coryell scheme; I was looking into the best deep threats in college. Tre’Quan was a guy I didn’t have a good feel for.

Today, Quan posted a 4.49s forty, 37.5″ vert, 10’10” broad jump, and a 6.97s cone at 6’2″/203lbs. That athleticism explains how Smith could be 15th in the country in YPC (19.85), 12th in receiving yards, 7th in explosive receptions, 4th in receiving TD’s (13).

A performance like today’s could move Tre’Quan from a 4th-5th round pick up into day two.

By Jared Stanger

For me, I look for something a little different in a Combine “winner”. To me, it’s not the guys that are expected to do well and then do it. It’s the guys that we think are unathletic and then show that they are, in fact, very athletic. Or maybe their athleticism hasn’t been thought of much at all.

My first winner is Oregon RB Royce Freeman. Weighing in at 6’0″/229lbs, Royce is one of the top 5 biggest RB in this class. He put together a workout that included a 4.54s forty (9th in group), 17 reps in the bench (12th in group), 34″ vert (12th in group), broad jump 9’10” (16th in group). But then here is where things get interesting…agility.

Freeman posted the 3rd-best three-cone drill at 6.90, and the 3rd-best short shuttle at 4.16. The two guys with better times in both agility tests weighed 193lbs and 205lbs, respectively.

To look at it as a pro-comp, I’m going to stack Royce up next to another guy that had a ton of “mileage” in college: Le’veon Bell.

Le’veon: 6’1″/230lbs, 4.60s forty, 24 bench, 31.5″ vert, 9’10” broad, 6.75 cone, 4.24 shuttle
Royce: 6’0″/229lbs, 4.54s forty, 18 bench, 34″ vert, 9’10” broad, 6.90 cone, 4.16 shuttle

From the Offensive Line groups, I will briefly acknowledge the day that Tyrell Crosby had (14th in forty, 8th in vert, 16th in broad) because that athleticism puts him ahead of the athleticism of the tackles generally projected ahead of him (McGlinchey, Brown).

I also think Wyatt Teller had a great day. 6’4″/301lbs with 34″ arms (nice for a guard), he ran a 5.24s forty, 30 bench, 29″ vert, the 2nd-best broad jump at 9’6″, the 5th-best cone drill.

But the guy that was a surprise winner for me was UCLA center Scott Quessenberry. I haven’t been watching the Center class very thoroughly, but I did a couple games on Kolton Miller, which allowed me to also notice Quiz. I thought the tape vs UW and Vita Vea was specifically noteworthy.

And then, today, Scott posted a workout of: 5.09s forty (unheard of for a center and 6th in this OL class), 33.5″ vert (2nd), 9’3″ broad (6th), and a 7.50 cone (6th). Every guy with a better forty and cone time weighs at least 6 lbs less than Quessenberry. So his SPARQ score could end up higher relative to weight.

By Jared Stanger

The 2018 NFL Scouting Combine starts a week from Wednesday in Indianapolis with weigh-ins for OL, RB, and ST. They will also be the first groups to conduct field testing on Friday. The successive order on the field goes:

Friday- OL, RB, ST
Saturday- QB, WR, TE
Sunday- DL, LB
Monday- CB, S

Offensive Line

In the offensive line groups, I don’t know that we will see much athleticism from the Centers. I think, in a general sense, the guards could have the best athletes out of all three spots. The interesting thing is gonna be the weird moment when Quenton Nelson doesn’t test very well. Better testers could include Braden Smith, Isaiah Wynn and Austin Corbett. I’ll be curious what Will Hernandez and Wyatt Teller post in the bench.

For the tackles, the one I feel safe in saying he should win the combine is Brian O’Neill. He could be Lane Johnson-esque. He has decent tape. A couple others that could test well that don’t have great tape: Rick Leonard and Greg Senat.

Guys that have good tape you hope simply hit passable benchmarks: Mike McGlinchey, Connor Williams, Tyrell Crosby, Martinas Rankin, Chukwuma Okorafor. Anything under 5.20s in the forty with a 9′ broad jump and/or a 30″ vert are very solid.

Running Back

There are three names I’m most curious to see test at RB: Saquon Barkley, Ronald Jones, and Kalen Ballage. Ballage needs a good combine, Barkley doesn’t, and I’m dreading what a good combine will do for Jones.

The guy that I think will disappoint is Derrius Guice. I’ve read the reports that he’s running 4.49s in training, but I’ve watched some of his practice 40 reps and it doesn’t look 4.4. In general, I feel like LSU athletes are disappointing combine athletes.

And then the group that just needs to hit general benchmarks because their tape is good: Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Royce Freeman, Lavon Coleman. A forty in the 4.55-4.57s range from that group is fine.

Quarterback

Don’t worry about QB athleticism. Worry about their FBI. Period.

Wide Receiver

WR has a pretty wide spectrum of athlete type, so you can find a wide spectrum of results. You don’t mind a 4.55 from a 6’3″ outside WR, you don’t mind a bad vertical from a slot guy. You can use a WR to his best traits: agility, jumpballs, speed.

Known entity overall athletes include Braxton Berrios and Christian Kirk. I happen to know Dante Pettis is not recognized enough for his athleticism. I suspect DJ Moore and Cedrick Wilson are very high scorers. And then a guy like Robert Foster from Alabama HAS to be some kind of freak…what other reason would there be for a guy with 35 total receptions in 4 years be doing at the combine.

The speed I like best from this group is from Keke Coutee, and then DJ Chark could have a very fast time for his size.

Marcell Ateman was recently reported to be hitting upwards of 40″ in his vertical.

But I think the biggest combine winner at WR will be Courtland Sutton. He’s already high on most boards, but I feel like he’s not acknowledged enough for this athleticism.

Tightend

I don’t think this a tremendously athletic TE group. I think the two to keep an eye on are Ian Thomas and Jordan Akins. Akins might be the big winner.

Jaylen Samuels is listed as a TE for the combine, but his future position may be something else. But relative to these other, true TE he should test well.

The guys with solid tape that we just need to see hit benchmarks are Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, and Dallas Goedert. The latter may not do a full test battery until his pro day.

The big name at TE that I just don’t get is Hayden Hurst. He is overaged and looks to be someone that gets massively overdrafted.

Defensive Line

Josh Sweat is perhaps the best athlete in this combined DE/DT group (maybe one of the top 5 of any position). Other pretty well-known athletes: Vita Vea, Kentavius Street, Taven Bryan.

Out of the big boys, the next names after Vea that I’m interested in seeing are Tim Settle, Kahlil McKenzie, and Nathan Shepherd.

Off the edge, I think Duke Ejiofor could make a lot of money if he has the day that he’s hitting in training. My guess is that Rasheem Green surprises people and Arden Key disappoints people (another LSU guy lacking athleticism).

Linebacker

The big buzz is on Tremaine Edmunds and Leighton Vander Esch. I don’t think either look as athletic on tape as the reports from scouts (which may actually be from agents) are saying.

The two that I’m more interested in seeing are Shaquem Griffin and Lorenzo Carter. Griffin’s speed, even at his smaller size, pops off the screen. And Carter has put up big test numbers in the past.

Malik Jefferson is another that has put up big numbers in the past. He should win the combine from this group.

There is a whole collection of college DE that are testing at LB that I’m going into the Sunday field day with an open mind about: Uchenna Nwosu, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Kemoko Turay, Jeff Holland, Trevon Young, Marquis Haynes.

Cornerback

The buzz at CB seems to be Donte Jackson running in the 4.2’s. I just don’t get that excited about 175lb corners. In terms of just the combine, I think the Alabama trio (quartet if you think Minkah is a CB) are interesting names to watch test. Isaiah Oliver should test well, too.

After years of studying Seattle draft; I’m pretty particular about CB’s now. And the guy that I think fits Seattle best, and who could make the most money at the combine, is Isaac Yiadom. Right height/weight/length. Plus this:

Safety

Safety is always funny. It’s a hard position to study from TV tape, so you sometimes procrastinate doing it. So it becomes the last position you can get a true feel for in terms of the class as a whole. In the last few weeks I’ve really started to come around on this class of Safeties.

Minkah and Derwin at the top should have impressive Mondays. I tend to think Minkah has the better day of the two.

Jessie Bates is making a late rush towards the top of the draft. I think he’ll have a solid workout. My eyes have less problem with Deshon Elliott’s athleticism from his game tape than most others. These two (plus Jeremy Reaves who wasn’t invited to the combine) are the three to track.

And lastly there are a trio of DB’s testing with the Safeties that could represent similar prospects to Seattle as Mike Tyson was in 2017: safety that could play CB. That list is Siran Neal, Josh Kalu, Kameron Kelly. In fact, all have more experience at CB than Tyson did. Actually, add Jessie Bates to this group.

By Jared Stanger

This offseason is poised to continue to be a massive transition for the Seattle Seahawks. We’ve already seen huge turnover on the coaching staff (which may not be done), and the player roster is coming. Tons of free agents, some cap cuts, some potential trades.

Perhaps the biggest potential trade coming could be looking to find draft picks for the biggest trade chip on the team: Earl Thomas. Earl has, through either an emotional outburst or calculated career positioning, expressed interest in playing for the Dallas Cowboys. He’s of an age where his body, and those of similar age group and contract status, has started breaking down.

Seattle as recently as 2017 floated the idea of trading a pro bowl player, and the hindsight of that non-trade is that the player got hurt and no longer carries near the same trade value. Seattle also has a recent example of extending a veteran secondary player with a very team-unfriendly contract, and then losing that player to injury.

The logic of my mind says let’s not risk either of those again. Let’s go full rebuild, and trade Earl while he still holds pretty high value, and then reapply those draftpicks to getting younger again.

Now, I’m not the type to suggest crazy moves without a chain of command type plan. So, this becomes a profile of the 2018 draft player that I would use to replace Earl. This is Jeremy Reaves.

First, the physical comparison. Earl came out of Texas at 5’10″/208lbs (played his rSoph year at 197lbs) with a 4.49s combine forty and a 4.37s pro day. Jeremy was measured at the Senior Bowl as 5’11″/204lbs. I will optimistically suggest Reaves could hit the 4.49s forty mark at his pro day. I say “pro day” because Reaves was weirdly not invited to Indy for the combine. More on that later.

On tape; there is no one else in this class whose game brings Earl to mind more than Reaves.

Reaves is a very solid hitter for his size. He’s also a very tactical hitter, and has a knack for putting helmet or shoulder on the football. Three examples:

Considered a PBU rather than a FF:

In Pete Carroll’s “all about the ball” mindset, Reaves has to be one of the players on his list with 3 INT, 8 PBU, and 3 FF for 2017.

Reaves is one of the best Safety tacklers I’ve watched this year. Both film and boxscore concur (104 tackles for the season).

I think the two things that differentiate a replacement level safety and a legit single-high stud are related: 1) ability to come from deep and make plays in the run-game.

2) ability to get from CF to either sideline in pass coverage.

There isn’t a ton of coverage assignments on the South Alabama tape I watched on Reaves from this year (although he did play CB in previous years). But I really appreciated this play from the Senior Bowl on a very good, very big TE:

The quick recap on Reaves film: very good tackler, very good hitter, very good speed, very good FBI. I wouldn’t put an elite/A+ stamp on any one trait, but it’s A/A- across the board.

The one elite trait I’ve found about Reaves is not something I can show with tape. It’s more intangible. But I feel very strongly that Reaves has it in the same way that I recently saw while scouting Kevin Byard when he came out of college.

Byard is another important comp for Reaves. Both come from small schools (Middle Tennessee and South Alabama). Both were not invited to the combine. Byard was a 3rd round pick, and that is where I expect Reaves eventually gets drafted (even though he is generally mocked MUCH later). In 2017 Byard led the NFL in INT and became a pro bowler for the first time. These are things that I see in Jeremy Reaves future.

Earl Thomas is a Hall of Fame player. You can’t replicate that. But if you can find a pro bowler, and in the third round no less, it at least lessens the dropoff as much as you’re probably going to in a generation.

So, if you ever feel concerned that I’m thinking of trading a HOF…just know that I’m also thinking about the next era of LOB, too. And it can be a bright future. I’m just trying to be a better mock drafter. My name is Jare.

By Jared Stanger

We are on the precipice of one of the most transitional offseasons in Seattle Seahawks history. The uncertainty of who is still going to be here coming week 1 of the 2018 season is massive.

The way John Schneider structured many of the vet contracts, including many of the 1-year guys signed just prior to 2017, have left a huge chunk of the roster about to hit free agency. Add to that the players that are coming off injuries this year, and may not hold as much value ON the team as being cap-cut OFF the team. Add to that viable, healthy players that may hold better value in trade than they do remaining on the team. It becomes a huge potential turnover.

So this article is going to be an attempt to locate players in the 2018 draft that would best replace pretty much every potential roster loss that could pop up here in a few weeks/months. There is no judgment about draft position or logistics of getting these guys drafted…it is simply, “okay, here is the 1A option if we lose X player.” Pretty much the only rule, for me, is that I’m not considering players that look locked in to a top-15 draft position.

God, where do we start?

TE Jimmy Graham – TE Mike Gesicki

With shared backgrounds as basketball players, and shared skills for running/high-pointing and shared flaws as blockers; if you want the guy this draft that can do similar things to Graham, I think you target Gesicki.

TE Luke Willson – TE Durham Smythe

I don’t know that this is a very close match. Smythe is a better blocker, and Willson is a better athlete. But from a roster standpoint, I think Seattle needs one fewer TE athlete and one more TE blocker. Ideally, this happens in concert with signing an athlete TE.

WR Tanner McEvoy – WR Marcell Ateman

2017 was a huge step back in performance for McEvoy, and as a player that you haven’t invested a ton in (2016 UDFA); I don’t think you sweat moving on from him very much. This draft has potentially a nice collection of WR that could represent a similar profile to Tanner. Contenders include Marcell Ateman, Allen Lazard, Jaleel Scott, Auden Tate, Simmie Cobbs, Equanimeous St Brown, Jake Wieneke.

I’m currently tending toward Ateman or Tate.

WR Paul Richardson – WR Cedrick Wilson

Part of me wants to say DJ Chark because he just had a nice Senior Bowl game, and is one of the top 5 deep threats in the country this year, but I just get a better sense of Cedrick Wilson’s overall game. Cedrick is showing more on screens, slants, crossers, while still being a decent deep threat; while DJ is far too one-trick as a go-route runner.

WR JD McKissic – WR DJ Moore

I’m calling McKissic a WR right here because, although they moved him to RB this year, with 46 rushes and 46 pass targets; McKissic was equal parts RB and WR. And the guy I’d replace him with is definitely more a WR. DJ Moore at 5’11″/215lbs is built very much like a RB, but with 80 receptions to 5 rushes, he has more experience at WR.

Moore’s game has many shades of Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin; so if you were to lose Doug or Tyler Lockett for some reason this year; Moore would also be my pick for their spot.

RB Eddie Lacy – RB Royce Freeman

This isn’t a like-for-like swap. This is replacing a guy that had to cut weight to get to 5’11″/238lbs, with a guy that makes 6’0″/238lbs look carved from stone. Freeman isn’t the broken tackles, hammer that Lacy was at one point. That role might have been better-filled by a Kareem Hunt last year. But Freeman is a tough-running, bell-cow, three-down type back.

RB Thomas Rawls – RB Ronald Jones

Again, not as much of a hammer going forward, but RoJo has enough broken tackle power, plus in his case it is augmented with truly elite speed. If you find that slow guys aren’t able to gain enough speed to hit holes with power, get guys that are fast enough to hit holes before they close.

RB CJ Prosise – RB Malik Williams

In this case, we’re gaining MORE of a hammer than what we’re losing. Prosise is notoriously fragile. Williams broke his arm in a game October 5th last year, but was back playing again with a few snaps on October 28th (then had a bye week, then played pretty significant snaps November 11th). I don’t know that I’ve ever heard of someone returning from a broken bone in 23 days. Regardless, Williams is 6’3″/221lbs and I think a sleeper in the making.

CB Jeremy Lane – CB Isaac Yiadom

This isn’t a great draft for CB’s. So if you’re thinking of getting multiple to replace Lane, Shead, and Sherman; you may need to reconsider. Yiadom rolled into the Senior Bowl measuring 6’1″/187lbs with 32 1/4″ arms. Mike Mayock (a fellow Boston College alum) kept saying on the broadcast that Isaac has 4.4 speed. For comparison, Lane came out of school at 6’0″/190lbs with a 4.48s official forty.

OG Luke Joeckel – OL Connor Williams

There are, potentially, a ton of moving parts on the OL. Joeckel is UFA, Britt may be a trade piece, Ifedi may be moved off of RT, etc. The options at LG could include Rees Odhiambo, Ethan Pocic, free agent, draftpick LG, draftpick LT moved to LG.

Will Hernandez might be a guy that Solari will really be drawn to at LG. Wyatt Teller might be a slightly lesser talent with better athleticism. Both are pretty nasty. And then there is a slight possibility that a guy like Connor Williams is still available and could play LG for a year or two before returning to LT.

I’m gonna go with the guy more similar to Joeckel, the current LT Connor Williams.

OT Germain Ifedi – OT Tyrell Crosby

The report is that new OL coach Mike Solari prefers athletic OT, in which case we may see justice with Ifedi moved back to RG or benched. The more athletic OT in this draft is Brian O’Neill, but the better OT in this draft (with athleticism that may surprise at the combine) is Tyrell Crosby.

Tyrell hasn’t played RT in 2-3 years, but he has done it and pretty well. I posted some of his freshman tape going against Joey Bosa. Plus, Tyrell would give you that Ryan Ramczyk option of filling in at LT if Duane Brown misses time.

OLB Dewey McDonald – Shaquem Griffin

I actually like Shaquem better, in theory, as a strong safety, but he wouldn’t be my first pick there. Shaquem at 223lbs is not far off from the likes of Mike Morgan or Malcolm Smith when they came out of USC, in terms of size. It’s possible he plays OLB. He would definitely be a special teams stud (and probably future captain there).

OLB Terence Garvin/Michael Wilhoite – LB Darius Leonard

Seattle has quite a few LB spots that might need plugging. They pulled a bunch from free agency last year, and may find some more gems that way in UFA this year. Leonard led all players in tackles at the Senior Bowl yesterday and is emerging with some more buzz recently. I think he could hedge you at SLB1 and ILB2.

DT Sheldon Richardson – DT Sheldon Richardson

2 things: 1) Sheldon’s market and price may not be what we had heard it would be when we first acquired him. But I get the sense both sides could be interested in at least a 1-year deal. 2) I really don’t like the draft class at DT. If I had to do it; I’d take a flyer on a guy like Kentavious Street or Drew Bailey.

DL Malik McDowell – DL Dion Jordan

This should really be a pretty high priority.

DE Cliff Avril – DE Dorance Armstrong

Full disclosure: I don’t like replacing Cliff this year. Not from the draft. But I think he needs to be in this story because he’s one of the players most likely to not return. Dorance Armstrong is not as big as Cliff, nor did he have a good year in 2017. He was the best defender on a bad Kansas team, and I think teams could gameplan around him with doubles and counter-playcalling. His production fell from 10 sacks, 20 TFL in 2016 to 1.5 sacks, 9 TFL this year. Pretty brutal. He was forced to become more of a run and chase LB. But the passrush upside once looked like this:

DE Michael Bennett – DE Duke Ejiofor

I think this one is one of the closest comps. Bennett is 6’4″/274lbs, Ejiofor is listed 6’4″/275lbs. Bennett plays DE and can rush at DT on 3rd down. Ejiofor has done the same at Wake Forest. I even noticed Bennett used a two-hand swipe in the pro bowl from the left side that I’m about to show you from Duke coming from RDE.

And, since Bennett plays a couple different spots, Duke gets a second video of him at DT.

SS Kam Chancellor – SS Deshon Elliott

I’ve read some question Deshon’s athleticism. I hope that is because they’re thinking of him as a Free Safety. Even then, I sort of don’t see it. But either way, whatever athleticism he has will play up more at Strong Safety. He has plenty of size at 6’2″/210lbs and really strong tackling to play up in he box. There are some guys in this draft that probably hit harder than Elliott, but I’m going with a higher floor player.

FS Earl Thomas – FS Jeremy Reaves

Reaves has a strong physical resemblance to Earl (5’11″/204lbs to 5’10″/210lbs), and hopefully he can hit a 4.4s forty. Earl’s a 4.3 guy, but that’s really tough to find ever, and especially without a top-15 pick.

FB __ – FB Nick Bawden

Seattle never really replaced Tre Madden as their rostered fullback, so they may keep that spot unoccupied. If they don’t; I’ll take the guy that lead-blocked for the leading rusher in the country. He’s a brute, but he also shares a trait with former FB Michael Robinson: he used to play QB.

PK Blair Walsh – Daniel Day-Lewis character from “My Left Foot”

I mean…it couldn’t be worse, right??

But seriously…I’ve got Trevor Moore as the nice value pick at PK. His accuracy over 40 yards was one of the better marks in the country.

P Jon Ryan – P Michael Dickson

I think the back end of the 2018 draft class is pretty thin, so taking a punter or a kicker makes a certain amount of sense. Dickson was 3rd in the country last year in average punt yardage.

QB Austin Davis – QB Kyle Lauletta

My hunch is that with Davis’ experience working with Brian Schottenheimer, the team will bring Davis back. But if they decide to go younger, I was EXTREMELY impressed with Lauletta in the Senior Bowl. I even went back to some of his 2017 tape while the Senior Bowl was still going on.

I know there may be 2-3 more guys I didn’t cover specifically, either because they were more a bench player or their spot could be covered by someone else on this list.

Bookmark this page, because my hunch is it may be a really cool revisit after the draft.

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to 2018. It’s a new year, it’s potentially a new look Seattle Seahawks, so it’s time for a new mock draft.

In 2017, I had generally stuck to constructing mock drafts that I would make. This mock draft is more representative of what I think Seattle will do.

Let’s start with where they stand today (before comp picks are added across the league):

#1.18, #4.114, #5.132, #5.138, #5.158, #7.200, #7.219

I’m guessing a bit on the 7th round picks because there was movement on about 4 unique picks, and it’s not entirely clear which picks were moved (and/or re-moved) in which deals. But I believe after adding 7’s for Kearse, Brock, Marsh, and losing 7’s for Coleman and Battle; there should be two 7’s remaining. I’m using the Jets and Vikings 7’s in this mock.

Seattle has secured the #18 overall pick. I think they NEED to trade enough so that they end up with three picks in the top 80 overall (I’d prefer four, but tough to do). This may include trading veteran players. Trading #18 can get you to about #33 + #63 + #129, which is two picks in the 2nd plus first pick in the 5th (all from Cleveland, now run by John Dorsey, a friend of the family). Then, I need to trade a vet that will net you at least a 3rd. That type of trade would (hopefully) also clear some cap space.

As I look at the cap situation (which is not my forte), the best vet players to trade without further hurting future cap, but also potentially netting a 3rd round pick, are in order:

Tyler Lockett
KJ Wright
Earl Thomas
Germain Ifedi

Earl should draw more than a 3rd. Ifedi might not get a 3rd, but he would be my first choice if he could. Lock and KJ are right about that 3rd round range. After his Dallas outburst, I would do a deal for Earl. But this is the “what would Seattle do” mock, so there is no way Pete parts with Earl. I’m gonna do the deal for Lock. I will send him to San Francisco for the #71 overall (might also consider Carolina).

After two trades, the board now looks more like:

#2.33, #2.63, #3.71, #4.114, #5.129, #5.132, #5.138, #5.158, #7.200, #7.219

I think there’s some wiggle room there to move a couple 5th’s, or a 5th and the 4th, to move up once towards the #90-100 range. That would be a day-of decision. For now, I won’t make that trade up. Let’s get to it.

#33 – Alabama RB Damien Harris

I have a pretty short list of the RB’s I think Seattle is highest on, and of that list, that would be available AND correct value at #33, I think Harris is the guy.

A power back at 5’11″/221lbs, but with speed that will surprise people at the combine, Harris is what I estimate to be Seattle’s ideal type of RB. Nick Chubb and Royce Freeman are in that same vein if they want to try to wait for a bit more value. But Harris is the one I think they like. He doesn’t have as much tread-wear as Freeman, and he doesn’t have the injury history that Chubb has.

And he’s just flat out good.

#63 – Wake Forest DE Duke Ejiofor

I really think this pick comes down to two players: Ejiofor and Texas S Deshon Elliott. And both could be gone before here. I feel less confident that Elliott will be available. If replacing Kam is a higher priority, Elliott might be the pick at #33 and then you try to get Chubb or Freeman at #63.

I’m also going DE here because I think it’s a pretty big need. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril both sound to be on the verge of retiring and/or being cut. That’s a lot of passrush needing to be replaced. If Seattle stays in the 1st round, my guess is that their primary target would be a DE (one of the Clemson guys…maybe a Junior we haven’t heard declare yet).

My personal opinion is that Ejiofor isn’t far off from some of the 1st-round projected DE. He gives you comparable size (6’4″/275lbs), comparable production (6.5 sacks, 16.5 TFL, 9 hurries), with a bit of upside still left on the bone, but at a 2nd round price. He also has experience rushing inside as a 3T (very much a Bennett type).

This is one of my favorite olimpico sacks from all of 2018:

#71 – Maryland WR DJ Moore

With the pick acquired by trading Lockett, I’m acquiring a WR that more resembles a thicker combination of Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin, while also giving you some return ability.

DJ Moore is 5’11″/215lbs, finished 2017 with 80 catches for 1033 yards and 8 TD’s, was #20 in the country in punt returns at 10.20ypr, had some snaps as a true RB (5×61 yards, 1 TD), and was one of the best tackle-breaking WR I’ve seen since Golden. He was the clear #1 weapon on a team without many weapons, and he still got his touches. These are all things that I think Seattle values.

#114- Oregon OT Tyrell Crosby

In researching this mock I checked around at where most of my guys were tracking in terms of value. Winning the draft is generally not about nailing your first round pick. It’s about identifying great 2nd and 3rd round picks (Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson) that allow you some leeway in the 1st.

I’ve had Tyrell as a 2nd rounder for some time, but it turns out many others are valuing him a couple rounds later. Draftscout has him as their #137 overall, another site had him like at #180. Maybe those are outdated and his stock has risen. Maybe that’s closer to market rate. In this mock, I’m going to take it as market rate and get someone I really value at a steep discount.

I recently went back to rewatch tape of Tyrell as a Right Tackle. I wanted to see if he had any kind of issue going right side vs left side like some OL do. I watched tape of him in both his 2014 playoff game and in the National Championship game vs eventual #3 overall pick Joey Bosa. Even as a freshman, I thought Tyrell held up extremely well vs the competition. I make this pick with plans to do what New Orleans did with Ryan Ramczyk: starter at RT with ability to step in as LT if injury pops up. Ifedi goes to the bench.

Another option at #114 could be Virginia Tech LG Wyatt Teller. If Joeckel walks, or you can’t afford him, you could try to leave Ifedi at RT and draft Teller or Crosby to play LG.

#129 – USC DE Rasheem Green

I think I’d like to get a Safety here, but I really don’t think any available fit the value. So I’m double-dipping on the Michael Bennett type DE/DT hybrids. Green is identical to Ejiofor at 6’4″/275lbs, but in my studying played far more DT for USC than DE. I think that was misuse. I never truly saw him develop as an interior player. But Green was a highly touted recruit that posted a very good production year: 12.5 TFL, 10.0 sacks, 5 hurries, 4 PBU. And I have a good sense that Seattle is interested.

#132 – Oklahoma State WR Marcell Ateman

Some picks you make because you have a dropoff at the position expected shortly after, some picks you make because they are right in the sweet spot of a position group’s value range. This is the latter. I look at the big board and see a nice swathe of value on WR in this range. You could pull the trigger here, or you could wait for #138 if you sense a run on a shallower position group that needs to be at #132 instead.

With Lockett “traded”, PRich a free agent (potentially replaced by David Moore), and McEvoy a huge disappointment in year two; I’m also double-dipping at WR because I think the draft warrants it. WR targets at this range could include: Cedrick Wilson, Auden Tate, Marcell Ateman, Jaleel Scott.

Honestly, I like that whole group. Cedrick probably the least impressive on 50/50 balls, but could closer approximate a taller PRich. The other three are bigger, slower guys, but that all show very well in the air. I think Ateman is the most well-rounded of the three, with Tate being probably the best pure receiver. Kind of a coin flip. Until Tate actually declares, I think I’ll go with Ateman. But in future mocks…may reverse that.

#138 – Notre Dame TE Durham Smythe

This is a need position, but not in a great year for it. So I think you take a flyer on a guy with good fundamentals, that may surprise once he’s out of the disaster that is the Notre Dame passing game. If you can get a Zach Miller out of a 5th round pick, I think that’s solid. If you can get a Luke Willson, well you’re at least par for the course.

#158 – Ohio State QB JT Barrett

I think Barrett is very underrated. I think his floor will be a great backup, but his upside is somewhere in the Tyrod Taylor-Dak Prescott vein.

#200 – Tulane CB Parry Nickerson

I like this draft, in general, for a Justin Coleman type CB. I think you can find that body-type and skillset throughout the draft. I think I’d prefer to target this job in the 6th round, but Seattle has no 6th. I think the two best options are Nickerson and VT’s Greg Stroman. Both are identical 6’0″/180lbs.

Nickerson gives a bit more ball-skills with 6 INT and better tackling ability. Stroman perhaps the better cover guy, and gives you the additional benefit of a punt returner (11.34ypr, 2 TD). Another coin flip. I go Nickerson on my sense that he’s a tougher personality.

#219 – North Carolina LB Cayson Collins

Last pick of the draft, we go for some athletic LB depth that could contribute early-on for special teams, and potentially play some WILL down the road.

Final tally:

#33 – RB Damien Harris
#63 – DE Duke Ejiofor
#71 – WR DJ Moore
#114 – OT Tyrell Crosby
#128 – DE Rasheem Green
#132 – WR Marcell Ateman
#138 – TE Durham Smythe
#158 – QB JT Barrett
#200 – CB Parry Nickerson
#219 – LB Cayson Collins

After skewing 6 defense (including 4 of first 5, and 6 of first 8), 5 offense in 2017; I have Seattle flipping that to 6 offense, 4 defense in 2018. It fits more in-line with what this class is providing. We don’t have them drafting a DT or a S, but they drafted two of each in 2017. It might be unlikely for them to draft two WR (after drafting two in 2017), but as I described; I have PRich an UFA with a high price tag, McEvoy cut for lack of performance, and Tyler Lockett victim of trade to add picks.