By Jared Stanger

After the conclusion of the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine we can now put some numbers to the players we thought looked athletic throughout the year. Instead of simply pointing out the most-athletic guys…or talking about the athleticism of the same over-publicized first round projected players..this list is somewhat more of a virtual Venn Diagram of players with great athleticism and potential interest for the Seahawks. (All SPARQ numbers come from 3sigmaathlete.com.)

Wide Receiver

Of the 48 receivers at the combine; 37 performed in enough of the tests to chart a SPARQ score, and of those 37; 23 rated above 50th percentile athleticism, and another 12 posted over 1.0 sigma. It’s a really deep group.

I think this WR class could end up looking similar to the 2015 WR class. That year; Amari Cooper went #4 overall. I kinda doubt there’s an Amari in this class, but the guys that followed Amari were Kevin White at #7, Devante Parker at #14, Nelson Agholor at #20, Breshad Perriman at #26, and Phillip Dorsett at #26. Meanwhile, the Seahawks pulled Tyler Lockett out of the 3rd round and #69 overall. I think a sort of variation of that in 2019 could yield a nice result for Seattle.

I’ve got four potential marks that could be there in the 3rd:

Emanuel Hall – the best deepball receiver in this class. His combine testing put him in the 99.7 percentile of NFL athletes. 4.39s forty and a stunning 11’9″ broad jump. If he lasts to the 3rd round it will be due to questions about his hands. 

Parris Campbell – the second-best WR athlete this year (behind Miles Boykin); Campbell posted 4.31s forty, with a 40″ vert and 11’3″ broad jump. Super explosive. I’m not entirely sure why Campbell’s profile isn’t higher.

Terry McLaurin – another Ohio State receiver; McLaurin has a unique skillset. He’s a very good deep threat, but he’s also one of the better special teams players in the country. Testing marks put Terry above the 95th percentile SPARQ.

Deebo Samuel – posting a 92nd percentile SPARQ score; Deebo might be the Golden Tate of this class. The RAC is key.

Offensive Line

I’m not certain which OL position Seattle targets; but it seems it’d be a waste not to draft from this pretty solid OL class. It’s not a class deeply loaded with stud athletes, but there’s a few if you jump earl.

Kaleb McGary – the UW right tackle has his stock continuing to rise. After a solid, albeit unspectacular, regular season, Kaleb has put together an impressive last few weeks in his pre-draft process including solid Senior Bowl week, a 72nd percentile SPARQ score from his combine testing.

Chris Lindstrom – primarily a guard for Boston College; Lindstrom has the arm length and 95th percentile athleticism (and some college experience) to potentially play some Tackle in the pro’s.

Edge rusher

With Frank Clark recently franchise tagged; it seems less likely that Seattle looks to draft a “LEO” type edge player. I think the higher likelihood is they target a DE/DT hybrid guy that weighs 270-285ish. But these are a couple stud Edge athletes that I could be talked into at the right price.

Brian Burns – it’s going to be extremely tough for the Seahawks to have a shot at Burns at #21 after he’s been a 1st round projection for most of the year, and just strengthened that case by testing in the 94th percentile SPARQ after increasing his weight to 249lbs from his playing weight of 235lbs. But we’ve seen Seattle target a player very similar to Burns in Bruce Irvin from this same regime.

Jamal Davis – probably the biggest sleeper amongst this list; Davis is a really nice athlete (82nd percentile), with good production (82 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 6 PBU). That’s a really high tackle total for an Edge rusher. The PBU are also really nice. Those two stats and Jamal’s combine field work tell me he could also pretty easily pick up off-the-ball LB, as well.

Defensive Back

There are actually quite a few cornerbacks in this year that could potentially be great fits in Seattle if you believe in Pete Carroll’s ability to take even the most unrefined but athletic raw player and coach him up into a solid CB. I think the key there will be finding that guy at the mid round value that Seattle likes to use on corners.

In the meantime, here are a Corner and a Safety that I have a suspicion Seattle might be “in” on. Both from Miami.

Mike Jackson – as the Corner from this Cane DB duo, Jackson comes from the spot with higher supply, and potentially lower demand (for Seattle). Jackson isn’t, necessarily, in my top 5-6 favorite fits at CB for Seattle, but he checks a lot of boxes, while remaining fairly anonymous (aka: lower draft stock/higher value). Mike posted a 95th percentile SPARQ while measuring 6’1″/210lbs with 32 1/2″ arms.

Sheldrick Redwine – I think I was watching Mike Jackson tape when I kept noticing Redwine more. I was late in the process to watch him (as is often the case with safeties), but I like enough of what I saw, and then he tested in the 94th percentile for his position. I’m not sure yet whether he’s more of a SS or a FS (and his arms are almost long enough to be a Seattle CB, too).

There ya go…a 10-piece HawkDonald’s picken nuggets. 10 guys whose athleticism should put them soundly on Seattle’s draft radar.

 

By Jared Stanger

The first day of NFL Scouting Combine player arrivals is this Tuesday. First group weigh-ins are Wednesday. And the first groups to do testing and field work will happen Friday. The recipe is the same as it’s always been, but let’s take a look at what the farm has brought to market this year.

We’ll take a look at each position group highlighting the guys that should stand out, and a few of the potential surpRISERS.

Quarterback – field testing Saturday, March 2

It’s a down year for QB’s. It’s down for them as passers, and it’s down for them as athletes. It’s safe to assume that Kyler Murray will be the big winner athletically. His size is more akin to a running back, and his athleticism should follow that same comparison.

The guy that is going to surprise people is Jake Browning. I believe Jake has the potential to run in the 4.6’s in the 40 yard dash.

But, for the most part, we shouldn’t (and don’t) care about QB athleticism. QB’s should be making their money in private team interviews.

Running back – field testing Friday, March 1

RB is another group that lacks much star power. There are a handful of backs that I will be watching with curiosity: Mike Weber, Devin Singletary, Miles Sanders, Justice Hill, Trayveon Williams.

But mostly, I am looking forward to the testing numbers for Damien Harris and Jordan Scarlett. These are both similarly built 5’11″/215lbs runners from SEC schools where they found themselves in backfield timeshares this year.

Scarlett placed second in Florida carries to Lamical Perine’s 134 attempts; finishing with 776 yards on 131 carries, 5.92ypc, and 5 TD’s.

Harris led Alabama in carries with 150, 876 yards, 5.84 ypc, 9 TD to out-touch Josh Jacobs’ 120 carries, and Najee Harris’ 117.

But, now, at the combine; both of these backs will be able to work individually, and show the world something it hasn’t quite grasped yet: these two guys are nice athletes. I think Harris can leave Indy with a 4.48s time, and Scarlett will make the most money in his group running in the 4.40-4.43s range.

In a general sense; the single RB test to keep an eye on is the Shuttle. But really you want to wait for the composite scores like SPARQ for runners.

Wide receiver – field testing Saturday, March 2

WR is always one of the biggest groups, which gives the biggest chance for surprises. You get a lot of small-school receivers that are tough to find tape on like Emmanuel Butler, Keelan Doss, Ahston Dulin, Jazz Ferguson, Alex Wesley. I really have no clue if any of these guys are gonna test well.

The handful of WR that I expect to do best in the 40: Parris Campbell, Emanuel Hall, Darius Slayton, Terry McLaurin, Andy Isabella.

For overall testing, I like Travis Fulgham, Hall, and McLaurin a lot, and then I’m hoping for solid testing from any/all of LilJordan Humphrey, Gary Jennings, Riley Ridley, Demarkus Lodge, Anthony Johnson, Tyre Brady. I like Seattle to try and replace Jaron Brown on the cheap this year in the draft. Someone in the 6’2″/210lb range with 4.4s speed.

Analytics’ly, the test to watch is the 3-cone. Production-wise, the stat to watch is the “hog” factor (market share). I’ve talked about Seattle’s penchant for drafting hogs for many years now. Lockett was a hog, PRich was a hog, Golden was a hog.

This year’s hogs:

Andy Isabella
Ashton Dulin
Dillon Mitchell
NKeal Harry
Greg Dortch
Keesean Johnson
Jamarius Way
AJ Brown
Alex Wesley

And then the next tier goes something like: Anthony Johnson, Hakeem Butler, Tyre Brady, LilJordan Humphrey, Stanley Morgan, Kelvin Harmon, Jovon Durante.

Tight end – field testing Saturday, March 2

What started out as a pretty dismal TE class grew throughout the season into a very nice group as the best of the best of underclassmen all seemed to declare.

We should see a fair amount of stud athletes at TE. I’ve got, in no certain order, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson, Irv Smith, Jace Sternberger, Caleb Wilson, and maybe Alize Mack sneaking in there.

The TE forty times will, as usual, get the headlines, but what you want to watch here is both of their jumps. The forty you can actually make due with pretty much any time under a 4.80s. I like a 9’6″ minimum broad, and a 30″ minimum vert.

Offensive line – field testing Friday, March 1

I’m really looking forward to finding out how many of the OL have the athleticism to match what is a very solid class of players on tape. I’m not expecting a crazy amount of athletes. That isn’t what this class is about, for me. This class is blue collar, grinders. But it’s always nice when you can get athleticism, too.

The two unique guys that I immediately get most excited about seeing are the two WA guys: Andre Dillard and Kaleb McGary. Dillard is going to compete for the fastest OL forty time, and McGary should put on a show in the bench and jumps.

I’m sure there will be a new Kolton Miller this year. Somebody that tests out of sight, and then gets overdrafted relative to his game tape. David Edwards seems like that kind of name going in to the combine, but I’m not sure he’s that name coming out of it. I think the name coming out of the combine will be Yoshua Nijman. Nijman is gonna win the weigh-in, and should surprise people in his testing. But if you revisit the tape, Yosh really didn’t take the step forward in 2018 that I was hoping he’d make.

Defensive line – field testing Sunday, March 3

It’s a spectacular group of DL in this year’s draft. Lets hope they also put up some spectacular test scores.

The two obvious names in this group going into the combine are Ed Oliver and Rashan Gary. I’m not particularly high on either of them. Oliver feels like the guy that constantly ends up nicked, and Gary is simply not a good player. But, yes, they should put up tremendous test scores.

I’m more excited to see scores for Dre’mont Jones, Christian Wilkins, Khalen Saunders.

The tests we really want to watch for DL are the jumps, and not the 40 time, but the 10-split of the 40 time. That’s how you potentially spot a Michael Bennett upside from a guy with a poor 40.

My interest is on LJ Collier, Kingsley Keke, Joe Jackson, Anthony Nelson, and Charles Omenihu.

Edge rushers – field testing Sunday, March 3

There are plenty of edge guys that are already getting their deserved hype, and most should test well next Sunday. This is the Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, Montez Sweat, Jachai Polite, Brian Burns group. I’m not going to focus on them.

My focus is going to be on lengthening the Edge lineup by finding the next Yannick Ngakoue from this year’s class. I think there’s a lower tier of DE/OLB filled with names like Ben Banogu, Jordan Brailford, Malik Carney, Jamal Davis, Justin Hollins, Christian Miller, Deandre Walker, Wyatt Ray that isn’t getting the respect they deserve. Any of this group posting a sub-4.75s forty time and solid jumps should be considered good value in the 3rd-4th rounds. If you can properly develop one of these guys; this year’s 3rd round Kyler Fackrell could become 2021’s 10-sack player.

The biggest sleeper in this group athletically might be Jamal Davis. The one-time Pitt Panther transferred to Akron and kind of got lost in the crowd, but at 6’4″/240lbs, 82 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 6 hurries, 6 PBU; Jamal has got a nice skillset.

Linebacker – field testing Sunday, March 3

Similar to how I feel about this year’s OL class is how I feel about this year’s LB class. It’s not a crazy athletic group. It’s more blue-collar, playing smart and tough. I don’t know if you find a Bobby Wagner this year…but I think there’s potential for quite a few KJ Wright’s.

I also kinda think the Combine dropped the ball at LB; missing invites for Khalil Hodge, Tre Watson, Joe Dineen, Jordan Kunaszyk, Malik Fountain. If you know how to predict NFL success; these guys should have been given a combine shot.

Hopefully one of Terrill Hanks, Otaro Alaka, TJ Edwards, Joe Giles-Harris, Bobby Okereke emerges from the Sunday session.

Unlike a lot positions; the 40 time matters here.

Safety – field testing Monday, March 4

The most problematic position group of this year’s defensive class. Not a lot of athletes, not a lot of blue collar, not a lot of future stars. I strongly suggest considering stealing from CB to build a safety.

Deionte Thompson can play, but he isn’t an athlete (and today was announced he won’t test due to surgery on his wrist). Jonathan Abram is the blue collar guy, but I’m spooked by his potential to stay healthy with his playing style. Nasir Adderley might be the best athlete in the group, but (unlike most) I don’t see a 1st round player nor star in him. Taylor Rapp is a well-rounded player, but his speed will surprise and disappoint people.

I’m left sitting here hoping that Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and/or Darnell Savage can distinguish themselves from this field.

Cornerback – field testing Monday, March 4

This is actually a pretty interesting group for the Combine. We have SOOO many similarly graded players at corner this year. Potentially quite a few guys with 5th round tape but 2nd round athleticism. Tie-breakers can easily be made with athletic testing, to establish an “upside” edge over comparable film scores.

My group of 5th round tape, 2nd round athleticism:

Corey Ballentine
Jamel Dean
Isaiah Johnson
Jordan Miller
Derrek Thomas

Thomas is the name on that list that you need to watch for most. He’s going to run a 4.3s forty. Jordan Miller is also pretty freaky and should post some crazy jumps.

Specific to the Seahawks, of course you generally start with those CB’s with 32″ arms. Usually also 190lbs or bigger. But…this year Seattle is potentially finding itself in more need of a nickel corner type. This is the role Justin Coleman has played for the last couple years, but Coleman is in line for a fat payday in free agency and that likely comes on another team.

So what was Coleman? 5’11″/185lbs, 4.53s forty, 37.5″ vert, 10’04” broad, 3.98 shuttle, 6.61 cone. Slightly smaller build, but still big jumps like most Seattle CB. But the big difference is the agility scores. The other recent Seattle nickel was more of a hybrid in Jeremy Lane: 6’0″/190lbs, 4.48s forty, 42″ vert, 10’10” broad, 4.14 shuttle, 7.02 cone.

Names I’m interested in for the nickel spot (at the right testing and the right price): Xavier Crawford, Montre Hartage, David Long, Kendall Sheffield.

 

By Jared Stanger

It’s DRAFT SEASON!!!

Sorry. That’s my pseudo-silver lining of getting knocked out of the playoffs. With Seattle losing the wild-card round, Indy upsetting Houston, Philly upsetting Chicago, and Baltimore having a higher strength of schedule…we can expect Seattle to begin the draft at #21 overall. With only four picks currently allotted to Seattle, and a pretty strong draft class; it makes the most sense for Seattle to trade back.

I’ve designed four trades at various depths:

Oakland- #1.28 + #4.99 + #5.147
Green Bay – #1.32 + #3.75
Oakland – #2.35 + #3.66
Jacksonville – #2.38 + #3.69 + #7.198

Oakland already has three 1st round picks and may not need to move up, but as you can see they have a lot of options. Green Bay has 10 picks currently so they’d have the capital to move up. Jacksonville…I just sort of like that fit.

While I don’t think it is the most plausible option; here I’m going to do the second Oakland option and move back to #35…mostly because I really want that #66.

So adjusted draft board:
t-2.35
t-3.66
3.84
4.117
5.148

From there it’s a bit easier to trade back again to add some picks late in the 6th-7th. Detroit has two 6’s and two 7’s, so one possibility is moving #84 back to #88 and adding #6.187 and #7.206.

Final allotment:

t-2.35
3.66
t-3.88
4.117
5.148
t-6.187
t-7.206

For the player selections; I started to write a mock that answered the fan-consensus wish-list, which included getting a safety early. This is a pretty shallow safety class and I really didn’t like the results at the other positions I was getting after forcing a safety pick. So I pivoted to just writing what I hope and think is a good draft.

#2.35

Florida safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was very nearly the pick here, but I’m just not a fan of getting behind my board. I prefer to draft from the depth of the class. I prefer to be working ahead of my board. Sometimes that has the perception of “reaching”…I like to think it’s more accurately being prescient and correctly valuing that which is otherwise undervalued. Offensive linemen are always undervalued in media mock drafts. They inevitably go higher than projected because of the difficulty finding them.

OL, Michael Deiter, Wisconsin

Deiter is one of a few interior OL that I’m especially interested in this draft. Two are currently at LG, one is at OC. Two have played multiple positions and could, likely, start at either in the NFL. Deiter has been the most versatile of the three I’m watching with work at all of OT, OG, and OC. I don’t think he has the length to play OT professionally, but I feel very confident he could play any of the interior spots.

My intent here is to allow the team to let one of JR Sweezy or DJ Fluker to walk in free agency, but extend the other; while also not being obligated to Pocic and/or Britt if they are not Solari guys.

Deiter (6’6″/310lbs) continues the great tradition of Wisconsin OL. Watching multiple games of his; I never seemed to find any minus plays. I never felt he was out-matched. And sidenote: a Wisconsin RB led the FBS in rushing with very nearly 2200 yards and 16 TD’s running behind Deiter and co. If Pete plans to continue with his offensive philosophy; I prefer to do it with someone the quality of Deiter.

In the 3rd round, with two picks, I think you try to take advantage of the greatest depth of this draft, which is the defensive line.

#3.66

The biggest challenge with studying DE for this draft is: which kind of DE do we need?? There is the the DE/DT hybrid that Michael Bennett once was. There is the pure passrush LEO that Cliff Avril was. There is the DE/OLB OTTO type that Bruce Irvin came to be, and that Mingo has sort of been. There is the 3-4 DE like Quinton Jefferson. Basically, you can find history of DE in every weight class: 240 (Martin), 250 (Irvin), 260 (Clark), 270 (Bennett), 280 (Jordan), 290 (Jefferson).

Further questions for the DE draft: what, exactly, is Frank Clark?? A 265-lb LEO?? Does his counterpart need to be more 245lb speed rusher, or 285lb DE/DT hybrid? Whose snaps do you want to take away from going forward? Jacob Martin or Quinton Jefferson/Dion Jordan? Those questions can only be answered by Coach Carroll (and by the players that continue to improve, force playing time, and not need to be upgraded).

Answers to those questions, minus what is off the board, gets you down to a shortlist somewhere in the range of: Jaylon Ferguson, Jalen Jelks, D’andre Walker, Christian Miller, Joe Jackson, Austin Bryant, Jordan Brailford. I like Malik Carney, too, but I can’t see him picked before the 5th round. Of this group, my hunch tells me Seattle narrows it down to Walker and Miller.

DE, Christian Miller, Alabama

I like Miller’s build (6’4″/244lbs). I like his intangibles (Bama permanent Captain). I like his production (8.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL, 12 Hurries). I’m not as sure about his tape. The tape feels like a lot of coverage sacks. Sort of reminds me of Rasheem Green’s 2017 season tape. Green was cleaning up a lot of Uchenna Nwosu pressures…Miller is cleaning up a lot of Quinnen Williams/etc pressures.

But, Seattle drafted Green. So what I see and what they see don’t necessarily match up. This is probably the lone pick this mock that I’m leaning more on what they WOULD do than what they SHOULD do.

#3.88

The 3rd round, for whatever reason, always hits me as the most important round in the draft. It seems consistently the last round where 1st round talent have slid due to positional value, mild redflags, or just not fitting earlier. The 3rd round can help you plan strategy for how to draft in the 1st and 2nd.

This player at this value is why I went a little off-script at #35.

S, Darnell Savage, Maryland

Unlike other positions where you narrow to a short list and then narrow again; Safety this year I only have a short-short list. Savage (5’11″/200lbs) is one of two that check off most of my wishlist: range, IQ, ballskills, tackling (we’ll find out about speed at the combine).

If Savage doesn’t come out of the Combine with single-high safety speed; I feel very confident with him as a box safety. He is excellent playing the run.

4.117

The 4th round is pretty wide open. Could be a nice WR here, could be a TE to hedge for Dissly’s health, could be CB depth. I’m going with LB and letting KJ Wright and his iffy knee walk in free agency. And really my pick is more like the profile of Mychal Kendricks’ skillset; in case we can’t re-sign him or he’s in jail.

LB, Tre Watson, Maryland

I started catching on to Watson (6’2″/236lbs) while watching Savage. I think he’s a hell of a football player. Really underrated. So underrated he might be available a round or two later than this. I won’t risk it.

Watson is a very well-rounded player. Showing high IQ, huge power, clean tackling, and upper-end coverage skills for the position (10th in the country in INT-5).

Kam Chancellor was always a linebacker miscast as a Safety. Watson is playing like Bam Bam but with more obvious casting.

5.148

This specific pick is my “Jacob Martin” pick for 2019. I love this guy’s makeup, comes from another AAC school, very solid tape and production.

DL, Cortez Broughton, Cincinnati

Broughton has some of the best get-off from a DL (either DE or DT) that I’ve seen all year. He’s currently listed 6’2″/290lbs, but looking pretty loose in the cage. I think I’d try to trim him down to more like 275lbs and try to get Michael Bennett out of him.

6.187

I think the last two picks have something in common: they are positions where this class doesn’t have obvious, elite players at the top end, and the back end is all over the place/dealer’s choice. I’m not sure which player(s) from each position will fall, but someone from a good list will be there.

At WR the list could run something like: Emanuel Hall, Darius Slayton, Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Travis Fulgham, Keesean Johnson.

WR, Terry McLaurin, Ohio State

A lot of Seahawk fans are asking for a “big” WR…why? The 2018 season was all about Lock and ADB (and for a minute Moore) and their ability to make plays deep. I don’t see any reason to alter from that path. Hall, McLaurin, Slayton are statistically three of the top 20 deep threats in the country, and that includes underclassmen. Fulgham is in the conversation if you look at explosives rather than YPC.

I’m going McLaurin for his receiving, blocking, and special teams combo platter.

Here’s a look at McLaurin’s blocking.

#7.206

Cornerback is a similar story to receiver this year. There’s enough guys with enough upside, but not a clean profile or big enough buzz to go early, that somebody will fall. Maybe not to the 7th. Maybe you flip CB to the 7th and try to get Broughton later.

The shortlist goes: Justin Layne, Corey Ballentine, Xavier Crawford, Isaiah Johnson, Joejuan Williams.

CB, Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt

I think Crawford is a really sneaky pick and could give you a slot guy should Seattle not re-up Coleman, but I’m going with the 6’3″/208lbs Williams.

The upside for Joejuan is massive. You get him any time day 3 you’re probably pulling great value.

Recap:

2.35- OL Michael Deiter
3.66- DE Christian Miller
3.88- S Darnell Savage
4.117- LB Tre Watson
5.148- DL Cortez Broughton
6.187- WR Terry McLaurin
7.206- CB Joejuan Williams

Obviously, it’s a defense-centric mock. But in a pretty strong defense-centric draftclass; it is appropriate. Plus, it adds reinforcements to the rebuilding Seattle defense which, contrary to the predominant conversation post-wildcard loss, is the weaker half of the ball for this team.

I would have loved to find slots to draft Florida RB Jordan Scarlett, WVU TE Trevon Wesco, and SDSU PK John Baron, but Scarlett just isn’t enough of a need, and the other two might fall to undrafted free agency. I prioritized what I thought wouldn’t go unpicked. If John Schneider can manage to trade some vet players for picks; all the better. But for now, getting back to our basic seven picks was a must.

By Jared Stanger

I believe the deadline for college underclassmen to declare for the 2019 draft is January 15th, and we’re already flying towards a new all-time high in terms of total players entering early.

It’s been tough to find a comprehensive listing, and certainly tougher to find one that can keep up with how fast and how many declares are coming. But I thought I’d post as many as I could, and throw in some video and a quick blurb about the players I’ve watched.

This took a few days to compile. And it will be outdated by Sunday.

Defensive End

Nick Bosa, OSU

Legacy player with the potential to end up at #1.1 overall.

Jordan Brailford, Oklahoma State

Really productive season where he showed awesome upside, but wasn’t as consistent as I’d like and faded late. Reminds me a bit of Marcus Smith.

Brian Burns, FSU

Nice athlete with effortless first step. Getting first round buzz regardless of his thin frame. Very good production and intangibles.

Maxx Crosby, Eastern Michigan

Joe Jackson, Miami

One of the thicker-bodied DE this year.

Shareef Miller, Penn State

Jachai Polite, Florida

Super explosive in his passrush. A logical first round name.

Sutton Smith, NIU

Undersized passrusher akin to Shaquem Griffin that inevitably ends up at linebacker.

Defensive Tackle

Ed Alexander, LSU

Rashan Gary, Michigan

It’s lowkey pretty easy to find a single highlight from most of the players on this list. Not Gary. But go ahead and put him in your first round mock. I’ll pass.

Kevin Givens, Penn State

Dre’mont Jones, Ohio State

Somehow people are lower on Dre’mont than they are on Gary. That is asinine. Jones is the best interior penetrator in this draft. And there are a lot.

Ed Oliver, Houston

DL tweener without a ton of passrush, but with some injury and personality redflags. My intuition is that he will eventually underperform his draft position.

Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State

Huge off-field redflag that deserves a round or two downgrade. But otherwise 100% a 1st round talent.

Linebacker

Devin Bush, Michigan

Tyrel Dodson, Texas A&M

Joe Giles-Harris, Duke

Hugely productive player, but seemed slower in 2018 than as seen here in 2017.

Vosean Joseph, Florida

Interesting player. Especially if you can get away with him being a two-down player.

David Long, West Virginia

Undersized player but a ton of playmaking on tape.

Quart’e Sapp, Tennessee

Safety

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida

I’m a huge fan of Chauncey. Great positional versatility. Solid tackler. This play here is my highest hope for him: rangy, thumping single-high safety.

Taylor Rapp, Washington

I think he’s a 2nd round player that could easily climb into the 1st due to a shallow safety class. Kind of a B+ player across the board…hitting, coverage, blitzing (probably more an A).

Cornerback

Blessaun Austin, Rutgers

Sean Bunting, Central Michigan

Xavier Crawford, Central Michigan

Jamel Dean, Auburn

Clifton Duck, Appalachian State

Justin Layne, Michigan State

Layne is as close to Richard Sherman’s profile as we’ve yet seen in 6-7 years. WR convert. Same size. And quickly developing skillset.

David Long, Michigan

Julian Love, Notre Dame

Greedy Williams, LSU

Undoubted 1st round pick. Probably the best pure cover corner in the class.

Offensive Line

Venzell Boulware, Miami

David Edwards, Wisconsin

I wasn’t sold on Edwards in 2017, and another didn’t do much more.

Cody Ford, Oklahoma

Pretty interesting player. Getting a lot of mid-late 1st round buzz now that he’s declared.

Nate Herbig, Stanford

Andre James, UCLA

Michael Jordan, Ohio State

Greg Little, Mississippi

Erik McCoy, Texas A&M

Connor McGovern, Penn State

Tyler Roemer, San Diego State

William Sweet, North Carolina

Jawaan Taylor, Florida

Taylor is a bit of a creeper…the more you watch him, the more you start to like him. Really powerful. Not the quickest but he compensates with intuitive play.

Quarterback

Daniel Jones, Duke

Good luck if you need a QB this year. Jones’ under-pressure reel is pretty awful.

Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

One of the better deep ball throwers this year. But otherwise unspectacular.

Runningback

Rodney Anderson, Oklahoma

I was pretty interested in Anderson before he got hurt this year. There’s like a mix of Arian Foster and James Conner in there.

Alex Barnes, Kansas State

Darrell Henderson, Memphis

Justice Hill, Oklahoma State

Elijah Holyfield, Georgia

A short-stepping back like Thomas Rawls, but maybe a tick more speed.

Travis Homer, Miami

Was looking like a potential early round RB earlier in his Miami career, before injuries hit.

Miles Sanders, Penn State

Jordan Scarlett, Florida

I’m a huge Scarlett fan. I just want to see him work on his pass-catching.

LJ Scott, Michigan State

Devin Singletary, FAU

There will be people that find this blasphemous, but……….Barry Sanders.

Benny Snell, Kentucky

Mike Weber, Ohio State

Kerrith Whyte, FAU

Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M

Wide Receiver

JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Stanford

Unbelievable redzone threat.

AJ Brown, Mississippi

Marquise Brown, Oklahoma

Greg Dortch, Wake Forest

The odds are against Dortch becoming an elite receiver because of his size, but damnit if he isn’t a fun player to watch.

Jovon Durante, FAU

Jazz Ferguson, Northwestern State

Mecole Hardman, Georgia

Kelvin Harmon, NC State

N’Keal Harry, Arizona State

Diontae Johnson, Toledo

DK Metcalf, Ole Miss

Jakobi Meyers, NC State

Anthony Ratliff-Williams, North Carolina

Riley Ridley, Georgia

Darius Slayton, Auburn

I’m a fan of Slayton. He’s got 4.3 speed and nice body control.

John Ursua, Hawaii

Antoine Wesley, Texas Tech

Preston Williams, Colorado State

Tight End

Keenen Brown, Texas State

Noah Fant, Iowa

Zach Gentry, Michigan

Dawson Knox, Ole Miss

Alize Mack, Notre Dame

Isaac Nauta, Georgia

Dax Raymond, Utah State

Kaden Smith, Stanford

Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M

Kahale Warring, San Diego State

Caleb Wilson, UCLA

 

I really love the way the underclassmen have sort of intuitively filled in the gaps of where the senior class is weakest. These TE and RB declares help tremendously. The only thing unhelped, really, is the Safety class. There just aren’t that many bodies even combining Senior and Junior years.

 

 

By Jared Stanger

I don’t do mock drafts. I just don’t. Years ago I was talking with a friend of mine and I was telling her how I don’t care much for small-talk…for BS’ing with people. She says to me, “that’s because you research your bullshit.” I mean, she nailed it. So, in order for me to do a mock draft that I would feel comfortable publishing and being accountable for, I would first want to do enough research on all 32 teams in order to trust that I’m not bullshitting or short-changing any fanbase. But that is an amount of work I just can’t do while maintaining my real-life day-job.

I also don’t really like giving a point by point listing of how I value players. I’d rather see how everyone else values them, and then steal who I think is undervalued. Nothing about a draft matters except who you pull the trigger on when you’re on the clock on draft day. It doesn’t matter if you got a player that “fell” on draft day, it doesn’t matter if you “reached” on your guy…all that matters is: one year, five years, a career later…did that player give you the best value for who was available when you picked.

This will be as close to a mock as I’ll ever come, but really it’s more of a “big board”, and it’s not even “mine”.

The other reason I wanted to write this is: we are well into December and something that I started noticing months ago about the 2019 draft class is still holding true: there is very little consensus about the first round.

Now, this can mean one of two polar-opposite things: 1) it’s not a great class and media is forcing players up into the first, or 2) it IS a great class and there are just too many legit possibilities that could end up in the first. I’m leaning towards the latter.

In order to survey the draft landscape, I looked at 10 different first round mock drafts. I used mostly bigger outlets, and I only used a mock if it had been published since December 1st. The mocks I ended up using: Sports Illustrated, Draftwire- Easterling, Walterfootball, Sporting News, ESPN- McShay, CBS- Trapasso, CBS- Wilson, Tankathon, PFF- Renner, Bleacher Report- Miller. I would have liked to use someone from NFL Network, but I don’t think any have been published in December.

I’ll start with the most general of numbers from the results, and work towards the specific 32 names that end up with the highest scores/best 1st round probability.

Across these 10 mock drafts; 65 unique players were named. That’s a lot. Literally two rounds of players that at least one of these writers put a 1st round grade on. Of the 65; 16 were only named on one ballot. So 49 unique players were named on multiple mocks. Still a lot.

POSITION BATTLE

Position breakdown of the 65 (I made some executive decisions on guys like Josh Allen who could fit multiple positions): Offense 28, Defense 37. So that fits with the overall feeling that this is a better defensive draft.

11 Defensive End
10 Cornerback
9 Defensive Tackle
7 Offensive Tackle
7 Wide Receiver
5 Quarterback
4 Safety
3 Offensive Guard
3 Linebacker
2 Center
2 Tight End
2 Running Back

To me, the one surprise here is Cornerback coming in 2nd. I don’t think the narrative all year has been that this is a good Corner class (*caveat to the CB group: a lot of the guys named are underclassmen that haven’t declared). But the DL numbers fit exactly into the season-long narrative. Low Safety numbers do not surprise me. Low Linebacker number is partly due to me defaulting most of the LB/DE tweeners to the DE side. I believe there will be good LB value in later rounds as this class has better depth than ceiling.

The OT number is decent with the asterisk that many of them are college Right Tackles. Low TE and RB numbers are just good common sense for a first round.

Now, the position breakdown of the names that made the top 32 for this exercise:

8 Defensive End
6 Defensive Tackle
5 Offensive Tackle
4 Quarterback
4 Wide Receiver
3 Cornerback
1 Linebacker
1 Safety

This list puts an even finer point on the top end of this class. CB falls off telling us that most of the CB named are late in the round and with little-to-no agreement of which guys will crack the top 32. DL becomes the obvious strength of the class. RB and TE correctly fall completely out of the round (Noah Fant is the “first guy out” of any position on the outside of the 1st round).

It’s a pretty accurate snapshot of what I think this class feels like. Personally, I would steal a slot from WR to give to another position. Maybe LB, maybe IOL. And DT might be high by one; with teams looking to find a Jarran Reed dropping to the 2nd round.

There are 11 players that were named unanimously to all 10 mocks, plus 2-3 named on 9/10 ballots creates a very obvious first tier. I think the second tier is only 3-5 players long. There is a no-man’s land where it will be extremely hard to find correct value that sits between roughly #15-19 overall. And then the third tier is close to 40 players deep. That’s 40 players for 12 draft spots. If you can flip one pick between 16-25 into two picks between 20-60…I’d do it.

TOP 32

For each player in the top 32 players I will give their cumulative average score, ballot percentage, and pick range:

#1 – Nick Bosa, Ohio State DE

NICK BOSA
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
1.1	100%	1	2

#2 – Quinnen Williams, Alabama DT

QUINNEN WILLIAMS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
4.9	100%	2	15

#3 – Josh Allen, Kentucky DE

JOSH ALLEN
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
5.2	100%	3	10

#4 – Ed Oliver, Houston DT

ED OLIVER
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
6.7	100%	2	12

#5 – Justin Herbert, Oregon QB

JUSTIN HERBERT
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
6.8	100%	2	14

#6 – Greedy Williams, LSU CB

GREEDY WILLIAMS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
7.5	100%	3	12

#7 – Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State QB

DWAYNE HASKINS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
8.1	100%	5	12

#8 – Jonah Williams, Alabama OT

JONAH WILLIAMS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
9	90%	1	33*

#9 – Clelin Ferrell, Clemson DE

CLELIN FERRELL
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
10.5	100%	4	22

#10 – Devin White, LSU LB

DEVIN WHITE
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
12.5	100%	4	24

#11 – Deandre Baker, Georgia CB

DEANDRE BAKER
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
16.6	100%	7	24

#12 – Rashan Gary, Michigan DE

RASHAN GARY
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
16.9	80%	2	33*

#13 – Deionte Thompson, Alabama FS

DEIONTE THOMPSON
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
18.3	90%	5	33*

#14 – Jachai Polite, Florida DE

JACHAI POLITE
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
19.8	100%	11	26

#15 – Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State DT

JEFFERY SIMMONS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
20.1	80%	11	33*

#16 – Dalton Risner, Kansas State OT

DALTON RISNER
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
20.3	50%	8	33*

#17 – Greg Little, Mississippi OT

GREG LITTLE
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
20.6	90%	14	33*

#18 – Christian Wilkins, Clemson DT

CHRISTIAN WILKINS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
22.3	70%	7	33*

#19 – AJ Brown, Mississippi WR

AJ BROWN
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
22.7	70%	5	33*

#20 – Brian Burns, Florida State DE

BRIAN BURNS
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
23	70%	6	33*

#21 – Dexter Lawrence, Clemson DT

DEXTER LAWRENCE
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
23.1	70%	5	33*

#22 – N’Keal Harry, Arizona State WR

N’KEAL HARRY
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
23.1	60%	11	33*

#23 – Byron Murphy, Washington CB

BYRON MURPHY
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
23.4	80%	11	33*

#24 – Montez Sweat, Mississippi State DE

MONTEZ SWEAT
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
24.2	70%	15	33*

#25 – Derrick Brown, Auburn DT

DERRICK BROWN
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.1	40%	6	33*

#26 – DK Metcalf, Mississipi WR

DK METCALF
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.1	40%	10	33*

#27 – Will Grier, West Virginia QB

WILL GRIER
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.2	40%	6	33*

#28 – Cody Ford, Oklahoma OT

CODY FORD
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.3	40%	13	33*

#29 – Drew Lock, Missouri QB

DREW LOCK
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.4	40%	14	33*

#30 – Jawaan Taylor, Florida OT

JAWAAN TAYLOR
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.5	40%	8	33*

#31 – Kelvin Harmon, NC State WR

KELVIN HARMON
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
26.8	50%	19	33*

#32 – Zach Allen, Boston College DE

ZACH ALLEN
SCORE	% BALLOTS	HIGH	LOW
27.6	60%	12	33*

Something that I didn’t include for each player, but that could be an interesting sidenote with inferences of player buzz; was the average inclusion score. Which is to say, of the mock drafts that included the player; how high was his average placement? Could also be considered the “bang the table” score. For example: where Cody Ford was included; his average placement was #16.3. If a single team/GM gets a specific draft crush on a player; this could be closer to where they’re drafted.

A few more inclusion scores:

Dalton Risner 7.6
Will Grier 16.0
Trayvon Mullen 16.0
Cody Ford 16.3
Daniel Jones 18.5
Marquise Brown 21.7
Raekwon Davis 21.8
Mack Wilson 23.6

SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks currently hold the #22 overall pick. Which, theoretically, would put them close to the range for a DE like Brian Burns or Montez Sweat. Certainly in line for one of a few RT options. Those would be the smart money positions to look at should Seattle not trade back.

If they prefer to trade back; some of the names that didn’t make this first round projection include a couple intriguing 3-Tech options in Dre’mont Jones and Jerry Tillery, small-school DE’s Oshane Ximines and Jaylon Ferguson, OG’s Michael Deiter and Terronne Prescod, and the second-highest rated Safety: Taylor Rapp. There were also a handful of CB names that scored very similarly (towards the 2nd round), but that don’t feel like a “need” right now for Seattle.

By Jared Stanger

Most of the roster for the 2019 Senior Bowl were announced last week, so I’ll be spending some time working through many of the position groups. I’m beginning with Offensive Line.

The announced/accepted invites currently break down with 9 players at OT, 5 players at OG, and 2 players at OC.

Tackle

Yodny Cajuste, WVU

I’ve been watching Cajuste since his sophomore tape, and recently he’s become a consistent presence in 2019 mock draft first rounds. I think this is an overdraft. I don’t think he sticks at LT. I have him in the 2nd round.

Dennis Daley, South Carolina

I haven’t cut tape of Daley, but I did watch two games earlier in the fall. I didn’t see much there. He’s a bit of a waist-bender that projects as a backup for me.

Nate Davis, Charlotte

This is the only announced OL that I haven’t seen tape of. But with listed height at 6’3″ I have to wonder if he won’t spend time at Center, where the roster is currently pretty shallow.

Andre Dillard, Washington State

I first watched Dillard over the summer from his 2017 game tape and kinda dug it, and I’ve recently watched a couple more games from 2018 and it’s really impressive tape. This is now a guy that I’m really looking forward to see at the combine; in addition to the Senior Bowl. My only criticism as of now is that I’d like to see him add some weight (just, like, 4-5 lbs) to his 6’5″/306 current size.

Dillard really feels like the only college LEFT tackle on the roster that I could see sticking at LT. His footwork will catch your eye first, but he’s been one of the more advanced guys I’ve watched with his hand usage.

Chuma Edoga, USC

This is one of a few of the invitees I hadn’t studied before they were announced, but he’s the one I’m most-excited about now that I have. Unlike many of the guys playing LT for their college teams but look like pro RT; Edoga is playing RT for USC, but might be able to play LT in the league.

Tytus Howard, Alabama State

Another guy I hadn’t watched before this week, but my first impression was more moderate. The first tape I watched he was playing LT and didn’t stand out. The second tape I watched he was playing RT. I’m not sure when or why he made the switch, or if he flipped back and forth all year, but I, personally, preferred his tape at RT.

Kaleb McGary, Washington

I haven’t cut tape on McGary, but being at Washington I’ve seen most of the games he’s ever played. I’ve also been able to see him test athletically at UW combine’s. I think Kaleb is going to make a ton of money at the combine.

Dalton Risner, Kansas State

Risner is an interesting evaluation. He’s playing RT this year, with some expecting a move to Guard or Center. I’m not sure if that projection is based on “athleticism”, expected arm length, or ability at Tackle. To my eye; I think his athleticism is pretty good. I’m more worried about his ability. The first game I watched on Risner this year was vs Mississippi State and DE Montez Sweat.

Sweat is potentially a first round pick himself, so it’s an important game to evaluate.

Max Scharping, NIU

Scharping is the kind of OT that I always find myself liking. Similar to Jack Conklin or Ryan Ramczyk…super solid, non-flashy, lunch-pail kinda guys. Both of those guys have ended up in the first round (#8 and #32), but then moved to right tackle as pro’s.

Personally, I don’t love stamping a guy as a probably right tackle and in the next breath putting him in the first round. I don’t think that’s great business. But clearly the league will pay a 1st for a RT. So maybe Scharping will hit some helium in Mobile and/or Indy.

Like with Risner, Scharping had a 1v1 matchup with potential first round DE Brian Burns. Burns is a super-smooth, athletic mover and Scharping honestly won the day vs him.

Guard

Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin

Michael Deiter, Wisconsin

Of the five announced Guards; four of them are respective duos from the same schools. Two Wisconsin, two Oklahoma. I’m on record that I prefer the Wisconsin pair. I especially like Badger LG Michael Deiter.

Deiter has a similar profile to Dalton Risner. He’s played multiple positions, and there’s varied opinion of which spot he ends up at. I’m in favor of keeping him where he’s currently playing: LG. But there would be more value if he ended up at Center. He comes across like he’d have a good mind for Center, I just wonder how many teams want a 6’6″ Center.

Benzschawel also has good tape, but at Right Guard with less position versatility…less value, for me.

Chris Lindstrom, Boston College

I briefly watched some of his tape about a month ago and really wasn’t that impressed.

Ben Powers, Oklahoma

Dru Samia, Oklahoma

The Sooner pair feel overrated to me. Their tape looked like 3rd-4th round tape. I know this is the opposite of the popular opinion, but it’s where I’m at. It’s not bad tape, just not as special as what I’ve read from others.

Terronne Prescod, NC State

Prescod isn’t currently on the roster, but watching tape of his linemate at Center who IS on the Senior Bowl roster; I couldn’t help but wonder if Terronne will be joining him soon.

Prescod is a really thick, well-anchoring, great run-blocking LG. If the current Seahawks’ OL configuration is how Solari prefers his line; then Prescod would be more of the RG profile, with a guy like Samia (who reads athletic on tape) playing at LG for Seattle.

Center

Garrett Bradbury, NC State

There might have been other years that I would have like Bradbury’s tape more. He reads very athletic for a Center, but listed at 6’3″/300lbs I just didn’t feel he was consistently strong enough anchoring.

Elgton Jenkins, Mississippi State

Jenkins, in a sense, is the opposite of Bradbury. He’s 100% anchor. If Elgton every gave up yardage to a bull-rush this year; I didn’t see it. It’s a little ironic that Jenkins is such a solid pass-blocking Center, but he plays for a team that is so heavy on QB running. I think he’ll hit more upside once he finds a legit, NFL passing scheme offense.

Jenkins also has position versatility to play Guard, if desired.

In terms of Seattle’s likely interests; JR Sweezy is on a one-year contract, so any of the LG’s should be a focus, with Deiter as my favorite. Germain Ifedi has another year after this, but Seattle sometimes drafts a replacement a year early to allow a redshirt. I’d love a 2nd rounder to spend on Scharping and let him backup both Duane Brown and Ifedi.

The Senior Bowl takes place in Mobile, Alabama Saturday, January 26th, with practices beginning Tuesday, January 22nd.

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to the Seahawks’ bye week downtime. With no game to watch, I’ve taken the opportunity to write my midseason SeaMock.

We always need to start with where Seattle currently stands in the draft. And it’s kinda bad news. The Seahawks stand at drafting #16 overall…dead center of the round. That means they aren’t doing enough to make the playoffs, but also not doing little enough to get a top-10 pick. But that’s not the bad news.

1.16
3.78
4.113
5.144

That is the entirety of Seattle’s draft inventory for 2019. THAT’s the bad news. The 2nd rounder is in Houston for the Duane Brown trade. The 6th rounder is in Green Bay for the Brett Hundley trade. The 7th rounder is in Oakland for the Shalom Luani trade. There are currently no compensatory picks coming. This is what we’re working with (barring trade deadline sell-offs or cutting guys currently eliminating comp picks like Stephens or Dickson).

So clearly, we’re going to trade back the 1st. Or, at least, I am. Trading back is, in part, an acknowledgement of the strength of a draft class. If a class is 20-deep in the 1st you drop down four spots. If a class is 15 deep in the first tier you can drop down to the middle-to-late of the second tier (back of the 1st round…maybe to mid-2nd).

That, then, begs the question: “how do I evaluate this class?” I think it’s a good class. I judge this by a few things: 1) my own observation, 2) how a multitude of draft evaluators are observing this class. In the latter, I’m taking note of a very noticeable lack of consensus across the country. The lack of consensus could mean a shallow class where everyone is forcing guys UP into the 1st, or…it could be a deep class and there are legitimately more than 32 first round worthy players, and everyone is simply disagreeing on which 32. Combine the second option to my own observation, and we end up with a deep class.

From there, we try to decide HOW deep. Is it 25-32 deep? 40 deep? 45 deep? That specificity will come later. For now, I feel safe thinking it’s 30-32 deep. So that’s my trade-back range. Then comes the trade targets.

One way to target a trade partner that could come up in a round is to note who has the inventory? Who has an extra 1st or 2nd? Well, Green Bay has two picks in the 1st (theirs and the Saints’), and nine picks overall. New England has a 1st and two 2nd’s. Either of these teams currently sit at #29 and #30 overall. That’s a good range to hit.

And conveniently, those same two teams also own #54 and #55 overall…which added with 29/30 gets you pretty close to chart value for #16 (to be clear; Green Bay trade would be #30+#54, New England would be #29+#55). John Schneider has done trades with both of these teams in recent years, so that wouldn’t be an issue. Green Bay has more inventory. New England may be hunting for a higher pick to draft Brady’s successor. Coin flip…

Heads. I’ll do the Green Bay deal for #30 + #54. I think there will be more trades later in the draft to augment the late rounds, but this early in the draft process those late round players are pretty much a dart-toss anyways, so I’ll stick to mocking only 5 rounds today.

#30

I think the position this player will be is pretty clear. Maybe there’s a 5% chance that things align correctly and like a Dre’mont Jones or Deionte Thompson falls and you go that direction, and then adjust in the 2nd, but for now…I’m planning on a DE in the 1st.

DE is a wonderfully deep position group this year, and doesn’t have much consensus after 1-Nick Bosa, 2-Clelin Ferrell. Some mocks go Zach Allen, some Brian Burns, some Josh Allen, some Jachai Polite, some Montez Sweat. That depth is good for teams in the actual draft, but bad for mocking the draft. Pretty tough to lock onto who comes off earlier, and therefore who will fall to later.

FSU DE Brian Burns

I’ve seen mocks with Burns off higher than this, but I think more often, due to his lighter weight, Burns is the one of this DE class that people are letting slide until later. Neither would surprise me.

But I like the value of Burns at this spot in the 1st. He’s got the passrushing chops to be a 1st, but he’s got the “defect” of being undersized (6’5″/235lbs) that would let him slide. And, with their history with Bruce Irvin, he’d make sense going to Seattle.

Here’s a quick little 2-play snapshot of some of Burns’ ability. 1) He’s consistently shown a pretty wicked spin move, and then 2) he’s got one of the best straight speed rushes in the class. Burns is currently 2nd in the country in sacks, and he’s also top-10 in forced fumbles…which is something that I think is becoming more useful in an NFL world where it’s illegal to hit the QB.

I’m also digging what I’m learning about Brian’s intangibles in between the plays. I think he’s more representative of the kind of Smart-Tough-Reliable players that Seattle targeted after shrinking down their draftboard in 2018. We’ll see if they keep that up in 2019 when there are quite a few intriguing players with some redflags.

#54

This is a tough call. This is sort of like player development/bust game of chicken. I think this spot you need to consider pulling the plug on Germain Ifedi or Tedric Thompson. Even if those two have played at a replacement level this year; if you’re counting on them NOT regressing; you’re driving at a cliff and waiting until the last minute to jump out of the car.

Even if you let Ifedi play out his rookie deal and just don’t re-up him, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft his successor a year early. It is a pretty good OT class…especially if you’re thinking primarily RT.

NIU OT Max Scharping

I first noticed Scharping over the summer from his Junior tape, and as I’ve followed him this year he looks significantly better now as a senior. Ironically, he matched up vs Brian Burns a couple weeks ago.

And then this is Burns trying to use inside counter after using primarily outside speed rush. Scharping handles it really well.

Scharping is listed 6’6″/320lbs and reminds me of Ryan Ramczyk. You could probably use him similarly to how the Saints used Ramczyk in his rookie year, then start him in year two.

#78

As of today, I’m currently looking at Seattle’s TE situation and thinking it’s in pretty bad shape. Dissly is out for the year, and even when he gets back next year he’s going to be slowed the same way Jimmy Graham was the first year after his patellar injury. Vannett has been pretty much a non-factor all year, even after two TE in front of him have been out with injury, AND he’s apparently dealing with some recurring back injury. Dickson has yet to play a snap. I don’t even know who the fuck else is on the roster right now.

The 2019 TE class isn’t highly thought of. But neither was 2018 and Seattle came out with Vannett who was having a huge year before his injury. I think there are TE gems to be mined from the 2019 class.

LSU TE Foster Moreau

I’m going with LSU’s Foster Moreau. 6’6″/256lbs and, like Dissly, known more for his blocking. But with sneaky receiving ability.

#113

I’ve seen a lot of interest on the tweets from people wanting to draft another linebacker. I don’t relate. Wagz is a pro bowl player. Even if KJ walks; Mingo is under contract for another year and appears to be making a transition to playing more of the WILL spot. Shaquem, Martin, and Calitro are young and under club control with upside.

I think a more interesting play is looking for a WR5 to develop. I think there will be room for a big WR with Marshall moving on, but I’m not going to look for that, specifically. Instead, I’m just mocking a guy that is showing qualities I’m enjoying on tape.

OSU WR Terry McLaurin

The first thing I started noticing on McLaurin was his TD to catch ratio. At one point this year it was 6 TD on 13 catches. Currently he’s at 8 TD on 21 catches.

Then I noticed his depth of reception. Currently 25th in the country at 18.95ypc (and that was higher two weeks ago).

And THEN I noticed his blocking. This guy is just a solid team player. Like, give me good FOOTBALL PLAYERS and then find the plays they are good at making.

Decleater.

And I’m not overlooking his receiving.

#144

I think a pass-rushing 3-tech is a pretty big need this year, and under the right circumstance(s) I’d draft one in the 1st, but I’m also watching the next guy and seeing his lack of recognition/buzz and drafting backwards. If I can get this guy in the 5th, let’s have some fun in the picks prior.

Cincinnati DL Cortez Broughton

Tez is one of the guys I spotted early, hit many of my attribute wishlist, and he’s been matching it with his play on the field. Although Cincy is using him a bit as a DE, and maybe he could take some of the snaps QJeff is currently playing at base DE, I think Broughton’s primary value is 3rd down 3-tech. He’s what we’re missing now with Michael Bennett gone.

Tez has 12.0 TFL and 4.0 sacks on the year…a pace for 22 TFL and 7-sack season, which is great from a DT.

Final haul:

1.30- DE Brian Burns
2.54- OT Max Scharping
3.78- TE Foster Moreau
4.113- WR Terry McLaurin
5.144- DT Cortez Broughton

They’ll need trades/trade-backs to fill in the 6th and 7th rounds where they can target DB’s and LB’s.

By Jared Stanger

Not all sacks are created equal, and the boxscore can sometimes lie. So we watch the film. And there are very few things that pique my attention watching film quite like an Olimpico sack.

Okay, first, you may be asking: “what is an Olimpico sack?” It’s a term I stole from soccer that basically means an unassisted, corner-kick goal. Here’s a video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sAhYwB4X0s

It’s a individual-effort kick with the perfect blend of speed, power, and bend. Those are the same qualities that apply to an Olimpico sack. A defensive end that has fired off the snap/kick with power…he’s got enough speed to blow past the tackle/keeper…but enough bend not to overshoot the QB/goal. No stunting. No “assist”. It’s just mano e mano…speed and angles. And it’s a beautiful thing to behold.

Here are some of my favorite Olimpico sacks for this year’s draft-eligible DE.

Josh Allen

Nick Bosa

Jordan Brailford

Brian Burns

Malik Carney

Clelin Ferrell

Chuck Harris

Trevon Hill

Khalid Kareem

Technically not a sack, but still a nice rush.

Anthony Nelson

Charles Omenihu

Jachai Polite

Wyatt Ray

Oshane Ximines

Having this many examples of Olimpico’s may make it seem commonplace, but they actually aren’t. It’s really more an indication of how many cool edge rushers there are this year.

How do you pick a favorite??? If voting purely on the Olimpico’s…I think the medalists are some combination of Bosa, Polite, and Brailford. Those three seem to hit terminal velocity onto the QB’s.

In terms of the draft; the Seniors include Allen, Carney, Harris, Omenihu, Ray, Ximines (not pictured: Jaylon Ferguson, Montez Sweat). The Juniors include Bosa, Brailford, Burns, Ferrell, Hill, Kareem, Nelson, Polite. If you get half of the Juniors (and we already know Bosa is coming out) it’s a very good class.

By Jared Stanger

Two games in to the Seahawks’ 2018 season and we already find ourselves deeply frustrated with how the team has looked. So many players are gone or injured, the team has no identity, the coaching seems very troubling, and both games have ended in loss.

The silver lining for someone that enjoys the draft as much as I do is that I find more people already looking ahead, and talking about the 2019 draft. For the first time in a long time; Seattle is currently in position to draft in the top 10 overall (technically the top 7 as of the loss on MNF).

So let’s take a look at some first round possibilities through the quarter-pole of the college season.

DE Nick Bosa – 6’4″/263lbs, Ohio State

The younger brother of Joey was off to a great start in 2018 before suffering a groin injury partway through week three: 14 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 1 hurry, 1 forced fumble. This is a player with fantastic skillset and the upside to make it to 1.1 overall.

DT Dre’Mont Jones – 6’3″/286lbs, Ohio State

There’s a few really talented collective defensive lines in college football this year. At least three come to mind with multiple potential first round picks: Clemson, Mississippi State, and Ohio State. Clemson has the most players, but I’m not sure that Ohio State doesn’t have the best players.

Dre’Mont has shown the best interior passrush of the class: 11 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 1 hurry, 1 INT.

DE Clelin Ferrell – 6’4″/265lbs, Clemson

Another of the most highly-touted edge players before the season; Ferrell is also producing to expectations: 12 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 5.0 sacks (#1 in the country), 3 hurries, 1 forced fumble.

We’ll come back around to some of the other Clemson DL later.

DE Montez Sweat = 6’6″/244lbs, Mississippi State

Touted and producing at a decent rate (11 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 2 hurries); Sweat is not a guy that I love much on tape. It really seems like there are huge gaps between his splash plays.

DT Jeffery Simmons – 6’4″/300lbs, Mississippi State

Of the Hail State DL; I actually find Simmons the bigger talent. 11 tackles, 5.5 TFL, and 1 hurry. He’s a really impressive athlete for a 300-pounder. The big question for Simmons is how the NFL will process the filmed and well-publicized incident from his youth hitting a woman.

DT Ed Oliver – 6’3″/292lbs, Houston

Oliver is an absolute freakshow of an athlete. I’ve heard people compare him to Aaron Donald, which infuriates me. Donald could rush the passer. Oliver would be more accurately compared to Sheldon Richardson. Sheldon was drafted #13 overall and it seems more and more that Oliver is trending down from a top 3 pick to that range. Also, and I have no way to explain this, I have a bad vibe about Oliver’s longterm ability to stay healthy.

DB Deionte Thompson – 6’2″/196lbs, Alabama

The first DB on my list; Thompson is playing primarily free safety for Bama and he’s got the range for it, but with his size and ball skills I wonder about him playing CB. 15 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 INT, 3 PBU.

WR AJ Brown – 6’1″/230lbs, Ole Miss

Ole Miss has this trio of Clydesdales at WR and it will be fun to track which one ends up the higher pick. Damarkus Lodge is a Senior and the lesser-productive of the three, Brown is a Junior and leading the team in receiving, but redshirt sophomore DK Metcalf at 6’4″/230lbs and long might be the most interesting. We’ll take a look at a play from each of Brown and Metcalf:

DT Christian Wilkins – 6’4″/310lbs, Clemson

Another freaky athletic big man.

OT Jonah Williams – 6’5″/301lbs, Alabama

Of the offensive tackles I’ve watched this year; Jonah has consistently been the best. His pass pro has been light and nimble, and his runblocking has been strong. He mirrors passrushers brilliantly, he squares up linebackers on the second level, he knocks tackles back off the ball on down-blocks…it’s a super well-rounded game.

WR N’Keal Harry – 6’4″/213lbs, Arizona State

A huge target that can make plays downfield and break tackles on short screens. Harry is top 20 in FBS in receiving and could be top 20 in the draft.

QB Will Grier – 6’2″/223lbs, West Virginia

I’m not sure he passes all of my QB checklist, but Grier has certainly been the best QB on the field to start the year. Not only is he completing over 75% of his passes, but he’s doing it with deep balls and an impressive 12.7 YPA. Also 9 TD to 1 INT through two games. Grier has a very good arm, exceptional ball placement, and is a nice point guard.

DE Jalen Jelks – 6’6″/245lbs, Oregon

After too much misuse as a DT in 2017 under Taggart; Jelks has been allowed to play more DE this year with new coach Cristobal. And his production has ticked up as a result. 20 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 hurry, 1 PBU.

DE Brian Burns – 6’5″/235lbs, Florida State

Burns is a really fun player with a ton of upside. Electric getoff, but an undersized upper body. It will be interesting to see where he falls on the Von Miller, Vic Beasley, Bruce Irvin spectrum. This year: 11 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 hurry, 1 PBU. All rates are up through his first three games this year.

WR Emanuel Hall – 6’3″/195lbs, Missouri

I was interested in Hall in preseason and he has not disappointed. The speedster has erupted to the tune of 18×430 yards (*2nd in the country), 23.89 YPC (*13th in the country), and 3 TD. With any 40 time in the 4.3’s; Hall could easily put himself into the late-1st round.

CB Amani Oruwariye – 6’1″/203lbs, Penn State

Great size, great intangibles, and great production. Oruwariye is top 10 nationally in pass defenses and INT.

DT Jerry Tillery – 6’7″/305lbs, Notre Dame

A terrific athlete coming out of highschool as an OL; Tillery is on pace to obliterate his personal-best in season sacks after opening with 3.0 through three games.

CB Greedy Williams – 6’3″/184lbs, LSU

Although he’s a little slight, Greedy is one of the better press corners in football. You’d like to see him build up to at least 190lbs, but otherwise a very good player. Ability to locate the ball in the air is an underappreciated skill from a CB, and Greedy shows he can do it here:

CB Derrick Baity – 6’3″/188lbs, Kentucky

The last of my big corners that I’ve spotted so far in 2018. Baity doesn’t have a first round projection on most boards that I’ve seen. He’s my pet project. I just love his technique and patience. The production hasn’t been there, but with a CB sometimes that can be an indication that he’s playing so well he isn’t being targeted.

I haven’t counted to see if I’ve got 32 names to this piece. That’s not really important at this point. Big boards and mock drafts aren’t gonna be very accurate this early. The important thing is to get a sense of the greater element(s) of this draft. I haven’t done a thorough film sesh on the QB class, and inevitably there will be more QB’s drafted in the 1st. I don’t have any RB in the 1st this year, but I think that is actually plausible. I also didn’t end up with any LB in the 1st. That will likely change as I watch more of guys like Devin White and Te’von Coney.

 

By Jared Stanger

We’re a few hours out from the final preseason game this year for the Seahawks and I’m going to squeeze in my guess at the final 53-man roster. Of course, I already assume this won’t be correct as my guess is Seattle makes some trades and/or waiver claims before the end of the weekend.

Let me start with the positional breakdown. I literally just sketched this out on my whiteboard freestyle, then counted up what I had alotted to each position, and I actually came up with exactly 53. So that’s a good sign, and I’ll just roll with it.

QB-2, RB-4, TE-3, WR-6, OL-10
DT-4, DE-5, LB-6, CB-6, S-4
K-1, P-1, LS-1

Quarterback– Russell Wilson, Brett Hundley

I still think it’s weird they traded for Hundley and I hope the draftpick going to GB is conditional, and that the condition is never met.

I know the idea behind the backup QB is an expensive insurance policy, but I also know how rarely you need to call your insurance agent when Russell is your starter. So you only keep 2 QB on the roster (one of which never plays), and I can’t imagine Alex McGough gets the job now that they’ve dealt for Hundley.

Running Back– Chris Carson, Mike Davis, CJ Prosise, Rashaad Penny

First thing you’ll note: I did not keep a fullback. I just don’t think they have a viable candidate after losing Khalid Hill and the Alabama guy to injury, losing Tre Madden to mystery cause, and only picking up the Stanford guy this week. I think they make-do with a TE as fullback short-term, and maybe they come back to using a fullback after a week (or six).

At RB; Carson is your clear starter. In my opinion (and by game usage) Mike Davis is RB2 until Penny gets back. And then you’re left to choose between currently nicked up JD Mckissic and soon-to-be nicked up CJ Prosise as a receiving back specialist. A JD or a CJ. I am no Prosise fan, but I have no winning argument for McKissic over Prosise at the moment.

Tightend– Nick Vannett, Will Dissly, Tyrone Swoopes

This is an easy position to project. Vannett is the incumbent TE1, Dissly is the stud blocking TE, and Swoopes is a position-holder until Ed Dickson gets off of NFI.

Wide Receiver– Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Brandon Marshall, Jaron Brown, Marcus Johnson

This is a very hard group to finish predicting. That sixth spot came down to four names for me: Reynolds, Stringfellow, Johnson, Darboh. I don’t really think it’s Darboh; who may spend the year on IR. I don’t really think it’s String; although I like the idea of him. It’s Reynolds if you’re concerned about Doug’s health. It’s Johnson if you go for speed.

I went with Johnson for his speed and the fact I’m not sure he can be added to the practice squad. Reynolds, at this point, is a mere shadow of the player Doug is; and he needs seasoning.

Offensive Line– Duane Brown, Ethan Pocic, Justin Britt, DJ Fluker, Germain Ifedi, George Fant, Rees Odhiambo, Joey Hunt, Jordan Roos, Isaiah Battle

For better or worse, I think the five starters are pretty well set. Maybe Fant takes ahold of RT in time, but for now I think they bring him along slowly. I think you have to carry a pure-center backup on the roster, so Hunt makes it. I think Jamarco Jones starts on IR, but may be a candidate for the return designation.

I’m cutting Sweezy because we just haven’t seen him, plus Odhiambo brings better bench versatility. If Sweezy does make the team I think it comes at the expense of Roos.

Battle is an extra tackle in place of Jones and likely goes inactive on gamedays.

Defensive Tackle– Jarran Reed, Tom Johnson, Naz Jones, Poona Ford

Right from jump; I doubt myself on this group already. Pete has never kept a player like Poona; who is a very young, very short, very nose-tackle-only defensive lineman. I think he’s earned a spot, but Pete won’t pull the trigger. Hope I’m wrong.

Poona stays at the expense of Shamar Stephen; who is redundant with Naz Jones.

Defensive End– Frank Clark, Rasheem Green, Erik Walden, Jacob Martin, Quinton Jefferson

Walden takes the spot vacated by the newly-retired Marcus Smith. Martin is listed at DE, but could work at SAM LB as well. And I’ve gone with Jefferson over Branden Jackson in the battle of dead presidents. I like Jefferson’s versatility and preseason performance better.

Linebacker– Bobby Wagner, KJ Wright, Barkevious Mingo, Shaquem Griffin, Austin Calitro, Jacob Pugh

To me, this is an easy group to call. The starters are obvious even with KJ likely missing week 1 (maybe longer). Calitro has led the team in preseason tackles as your backup MIKE. And I’m bringing along Pugh in place of DJ Alexander; who has just never looked healthy and able to compete for that top special teams spot. Plus, I think the team likes Pugh.

Safety– Bradley McDougald, Tedric Thompson, Delano Hill, Mike Tyson

In perhaps my biggest surprise move; I’m keeping Tyson on the 53. I liked his game playing free safety vs Minnesota, but he can also play strong and maybe corner. I’d like to keep five safeties to start the year because a couple of them are nicked up, but I also know it’s impossible to hide cornerbacks on practice squads in the NFL. So my 10th DB spot will need to be an extra corner.

Cornerback– Shaquill Griffin, Dontae Johnson, Justin Coleman, Tre Flowers, Akeem King, Neiko Thorpe

So this grouping may look strange, but here are the reasonings:

Byron Maxwell has NOT made this team. Period. To keep him, I would want him starting and not just a backup who can’t play special teams. I’d rather keep Neiko for Teams.

Dontae has looked the best at RCB of the guys on the team. He’s won a starting job in my mind.

In an interesting twist; both Flowers and King have experience at Safety. So keeping both of those guys is actually lengthening the DB bench while, as I mentioned, the Safety health is not 100%.

Kicker– Sebastian Janikowski
Longsnapper– Tyler Ott
MVP– Michael Dickson…the ‘P’ stands for ‘Punter’ (wink).