Author: seattleseamocks

Official Draft Season February Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Welcome to Draft Season!!

The 2023 NFL season is now officially in the books, and now we can turn the page to free agency and the draft. This will also mark my first mock draft ever written with a coach other than Pete Carroll in charge.

While we do know that Mike Macdonald is our new coach, with Ryan Grubb our new offensive coordinator and Aden Durde the new defensive coordinator…we still have some questions in terms of roster. The biggest of which will be the status of QB Geno Smith, but to various lesser degrees also Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Bryan Mone, Will Dissly. Some of these answers may come as soon as this week, while others may linger into June.

On the subject of Geno; it is still not entirely clear to me if this week’s contract guarantee deadline precludes the team from trading Geno once the new league season starts in March. Is there a tampering allowance where Seattle can negotiate a trade now for a trade that won’t officially take place until March? Without this clarification; I’m operating under the belief that Seattle will either cut him, or keep him and let his contract guarantee. So I’m cutting him.

Multiple of the previously named vet players could be some combination of trade or cap-cut, but outside of Lockett I don’t really see a ton of trade value. We might see some trades, but I just don’t have enough feel for who would go where and for what. I’m not gonna include those types of deals in this mock.

So I’m left to only trade draft capital for draft capital. Which is unfortunate cause I’d really like to get up to 6 picks in the top 100 overall. Seattle currently has three: #1.16, #3.78, #3.81. I’m sticking with the same trade I’ve been making in previous mocks: moving #16 to the Packers. Packers have three picks in the top 60, so packaging two to move up for, say, an offensive tackle would still leave them drafting once in the 1st and once in the 2nd. The total trade is #1.16 for #1.25 + #2.58.

The next trade I don’t have as much plausible reasoning for. Looking at the range I’d like to trade back to, and which teams in that range have surplus draft capital…I kinda see two teams: San Francisco and Arizona. Division rivals. Great.

The Niners have 11 total picks including four top 100, and the Cards have 13 total picks with six in the top 100. Arizona has the #4 and #27 overall picks, so maybe it’s less likely they want to move up two picks. I’m doing a trade with the Niners where you give #25 for their #1.31 and #3.94. Seahawks new adjusted draft board:

#1.31
#2.58
#3.78
#3.81
#3.94
#4.118
#5.150
#6.193
#7.232

It’s still not where I’d like to be, but I don’t think we get there without trading Geno or Tyler for a 2nd(+).

The addition of Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have only intensified the speculation that Seattle will draft Michael Penix (who Grubb coached at UW the last two years), or JJ McCarthy (who Macdonald shared time with at Michigan in 2021). I keep adding in Joe Milton who, while he didn’t directly crossover with Macdonald at Michigan, would be familiar with the Harbaugh scheme from his first couple college years. The question for me is: does Seattle now favor the type of QB Grubb prefers which probably tends more towards a pocket-passer, or would it be the type of QB Macdonald has been exposed to via both Harbaugh teams that can run a bit a la McCarthy or Lamar Jackson. Another way to look at it: do you favor the league MVP style QB (Lamar Jackson) or the Super Bowl MVP style QB (Patrick Mahomes)?

If the answer to these questions is “pocket passer”, I think you draft Penix at #31. If the answer is “Lamar/Dak/Jalen/Josh/Justin”, I think you pass on McCarthy and take Joe Milton with a two-round discount.

#1.31 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins

I think the first pick of the Macdonald era is a guy he coached at Michigan. Kris Jenkins is NFL legacy. He was a team captain at Michigan this year, and was on the roster in 2021 when Macdonald was there. He is an athletic freak. He has underwhelming individual 2023 production, but on a team defense that ranked top 10 nationally and won the natty. He’s kind of Jalen Carter with way better character and much lower draft buzz. Even if he’s not Carter, if you can get Justin Madubuike out him; that’s worthy of the late-1st pick. Certainly, from a measurements perspective, Jenkins is almost identical to Madubuike.

#2.58 – OC, Georgia, Sedrick Van Pran Granger

This might be a bit of a reach, but in this projection Seattle has missed on Jackson Powers-Johnson, Zach Frazier, Graham Barton, and Christian Haynes. SVPG is a two-time National Champion and an instant starter at a position that Seattle really needs to find a long-term answer for.

#3.78 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

I think there’s a high likelihood I’m wrong about this pick, but I just prefer the tie-breaker that is the broader draft strategy which allows us to address multiple other positions while still finding upside at the QB spot. I just think Milton’s tangibles resemble so many of today’s most-successful starting QB, while his intangibles could be the secret sauce that put him ahead in the long-game of basic ass bitches like Bo Nix and JJ Mccarthy. And let’s not forget…Penix being Deboer/Grubb’s pick for a 1-2 year stretch in college is not the same as an NFL team committing 4 years to him and his iffy medicals.

At this point, it really dawns on me I need another pick before the 5th round. This draft is pretty problematic after roughly pick #150. With two picks within a three-pick run; #81 is a good pick to move back. Just going with the trade chart; I like moving #81 to Jacksonville for their #3.96 and #4.114. The Jags traded their native #79 pick to Atlanta, but they have a 3rd round comp pick and two 4th’s, so moving up like this actually balances out their board.

#3.94 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

I did a study yesterday on 260 players in this draft with the goal of finding ways to maximize value. It really didn’t do much to reveal anything special about the top end of the draft. That you basically just need to take at face value. But I think it showed some things about the tiers of the draft, and especially the position groups that are generally undervalued in this draft, and/or positions with particular depth later into the draft.

Running back was far and away the most undervalued position in this draft. More on that later. But the rest of the value positions ended up being defense. There’s some late value at defensive end. There’s a pretty wide group of linebackers with late value. And there is a narrower group, but with some higher hotspots in the secondary.

Mustapha has been in my previous mocks and he’ll stay in them until his draft stock spikes too much from (likely) the Combine.

#3.96 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray

Cedric falls exactly in line with the same thought processes and backstory as Malik. He stays in the mock until he’s priced out. Just a well-rounded LB that could be Seattle’s version of a Fred Warner type.

#4.114 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter

This marks probably the first spot in this mock to make some truly difficult decisions. This pick could easily be another DL player. Either a speed edge, a 5tech, or another IDL. I kinda had Alabama DL Justin Eboigbe earmarked for this spot. I decided to take another OL because the team is losing more OL to free agency than DL.

Zak Zinter is a glue guy. Another Michigan team captain, Zinter plays an undervalued position and is coming off an injury in his last game of college ball, so I think we’re stealing value to get him in the 4th.

#4.118 – OT, Texas, Christian Jones

This is one of the biggest changes I’m making from my previous mocks. I posted recently on social (or re-posted, really) an image from Abe Lucas working out in the offseason that really spooked me, and kind of solidified some speculation that his knee health is not long for the league.

So I’m pivoting and forcing a pick on an OT. It’s a pivot that I’m kind of happy to make, as I believe in drafting from the strengths of each draft class, and this class is very deep at OT, and that allows value to fall. Jones really popped up on my radar during the college playoff vs UW, and even more so with his weigh-in and practice work at the Senior Bowl.

#5.150 – CB, Tennessee, Kamal Hadden

Another new pivot. Without the benefit of an additional 2nd round pick via trade; the domino effect is pushing a CB pick, which isn’t a big “need”, down the board. Hadden was another guy that was having a very solid season before it was ended abruptly via injury. Listed 6’1″/197lbs, Hadden had 3 INT and 8 PBU in 7 games before he was injured.

#6.193 – DS, Kansas, Kenny Logan

I think there was a point in 2022 draft cycle I had Kenny Logan in one of my mock drafts. He stayed in school, and I kinda forgot about him until just in the last couple weeks when Macdonald was hired and I started looking closer at how Baltimore used their safeties. This might be the biggest change from the Carroll defense, where we had really become used to a pretty big delineation between strong safety and free safety. Macdonald safeties might be a bit more interchangeable.

With both Adams and Diggs potential cap-cuts; I think Seattle needs to add two safeties this draft. And the hidden value of the position in this class really works to our favor. Logan is listed 6’0″/210lbs and posted nearly 100 tackles for the second consecutive year (106 to 95, ’22 to ’23), and added 1 INT, 6 PBU, and 7.0 TFL. Another name to watch here would be Oregon State safety Kitan Oladapo, for similar reasons.

#7.232 – LB, Wake Forest, Jacob Roberts

There were a couple different directions I could have taken this pick. The value left on the board at RB would make sense here, but that value might still be there in UDFA. A TE would fill a need, but I don’t think the talent is worth it. Plus, Ryan Grubb may be able to recruit Jack Westover or Devin Culp in UDFA.

Instead, I doubled-down on linebackers. Roberts is kind of a personal pick of mine that is not getting draftable grades from basically anywhere, but I think his skillset would fit brilliantly in a Macdonald scheme. I’d love to see how MM uses Roberts in blitzes. If Seattle re-signs Jordyn Brooks, drafts Cedric Gray (or another LB) earlier this year; Roberts would make an interesting Malcolm Smith type player to the other guys Wagner/Wright.

New year, new mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We have entered a new era of Seahawks football. Pete Carroll has been removed from his head coaching duties. And while many people are, rightfully, thinking about who will be the next coach of the team; I’m wondering how this will affect a rapidly approaching draft.

I’ve never done draft writing without Pete’s ideas of player profiles in mind. I think I first started looking into the draft beyond the first round players in 2011. I did my first Seahawk mock draft in 2012 through my facebook account. Twelve years later and the format and location have changed a few times, but this is the first time the primary voice on philosophy and mentality has changed.

There’s an element of mock-drafting that is: this is what I would do. But there’s also an element of: what will the team I’m projecting for actually do. Without a coach in place, and potentially even after one is named, I’m more or less forced to do the former. This is what I would do.

With a new coach; I think the potential for player turnover is higher than it has been in recent history. I’m going to steer into that idea. I’m going to be aggressive on player trades and cuts.

The first trade I’d look to make is Geno Smith to Tampa. The Bucs have the 9th-most cap space for next year. Former Seattle coach Dave Canales is in the building as OC (for now). Incumbent QB Baker Mayfield is a free agent. And Tampa isn’t in position to hit on a top 10 QB in the draft. Let’s get the Bucs’ 2nd round pick for this year which is roughly #51, and be happy to have some more cap space.

The second trade I’m looking to make is at safety. This is another cap dump. I don’t care which of our safeties get us there; I’d just look to trade either Jamal Adams or Quandre Diggs for a conditional 5th round pick (*if player doesn’t hit conditions it reverts to a 6th). I tend to think Quandre holds the better value. He’s been healthier than Jamal. He didn’t open his mouth and be gross on social media. The Commanders are set to lose their safety Kamren Curl to free agency, and they have a ton of cap space.

The third trade is gonna be the controversial one, but it also is the most value. I’m gonna trade DK Metcalf to the Titans for a 2nd round pick in 2024 and 2nd round pick in 2025. The Titans have a ton of cap space. They have a big-armed young QB. And their second best WR (not TE or RB) behind Nuk Hopkins was Nick Westbrook-Ikhine last year. They could use another target.

And the final trade is within the draft. I’m trading back my #16 to the Packers for #25 and #57 overall.

After all this movement, our final draft board will look like:

t-1.25
t-2.38
t-2.51
t-2.57
3.78
t-3.81
4.118
t-5.137
5.150
6.193
7.232

There’s a few more things I would like to address. In previous mocks I talked about trading to acquire Detroit backup QB Hendon Hooker. I still see value in acquiring Hendon, but maybe Detroit is hesitant to let him go. I still think we want to go into the draft with a QB in-house. Drew Lock is a free agent, and I’ve traded Geno away. It’s the Matt Flynn scenario from 2012. We’re gonna want some veteran presence to compliment the rookie we draft. I’m mostly looking for a bargain. I could see John Schneider going after Sam Darnold, who I think he liked out of college. Gardner Minshew got the Colts to 7-6 in his starts. I think Josh Dobbs holds some interest.

I would also like to take any cap room we’ve created from the aforementioned trades, and cutting Jamal Adams, and aggressively target an edge rusher in free agency. The list includes Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Chase Young, Danielle Hunter, or Josh Uche (who Seattle was rumored to be in talks to acquire at the last trade deadline). Uche may be the value play from that group.

Now, let’s draft.

#1.25 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton

We’ve needed to invest in the center position for years and haven’t done it. The team did not seem excited to give 2023 draftpick Olu Oluwatimi the keys to the crib, instead keeping one-year rental Evan Brown as the starter all year. Graham Barton is a very smart player, an aggressive player, and a player that most people project will move from Left Tackle to an interior position. Many people are projecting Seattle taking Florida State DE Jared Verse. To me, when Verse played Barton head-up, Barton won more of the reps.

#2.38 – WR, North Carolina, Tez Walker

We have to spend good draft capital to replace DK. I’d love to target LSU’s Brian Thomas, who presents a similar profile to DK, but his price is projecting 1st round, which I cannot do when we need to invest in the trenches. Seattle loves a good Tez and Devontez was one of the top 10 receiving TD producers in 2022. He transferred schools for 2023 and due to some NCAA redtape bullshit was not allowed to play the first four weeks of the season. He ended up suiting for 8 games, producing 7 TD and 699 yards on 41 catches. At 6’3″/200lbs, he’s not quite DK specs, but still a bigger target than Tyler Lockett and Jackson Smith-Njigba.

#2.51 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins

This is an upside play. My guy that I wanted to draft went back to school. Jenkins is NFL legacy. He’s got crazy athleticism and some really intriguing intangibles. He kind of reminds me of Warren Sapp a little bit. On the downside…his production all year was not there. On the upside…his best game of the year, arguably, was the national championship win over the Joe Moore winning UW offensive line.

#2.57 – CB, TCU, Josh Newton

I don’t know that Seattle needs to draft a cornerback. To me, this pick is about the person. I want to put Josh Newton in the building and in the DB room. We need more people like this. And the tape ain’t too shabby either.

#3.78 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

This is, unsurprisingly, the key to this draft. This year’s NFL playoffs are showing about a 50/50 mix of teams using top 10 overall drafted QB’s, and teams using guys drafted from the “field” (25-250). The Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy guys. To be more specific, I think Milton resembles most closely Dak Prescott in terms of size, skillset, college production. Why Milton is getting the mid-round buzz he’s getting after Anthony Richardson was drafted #4 overall last year is a little beyond me. But I’d be glad to take advantage of it.

#3.81 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray

Linebacker is one of the bigger needs this offseason, so it wouldn’t surprise me or disappoint me if Seattle went LB earlier. I like Cedric a lot and getting him in the 3rd after also addressing some other positions is gonna be a great overall draft.

#4.118 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

When you see a team collectively struggle with something as basic as tackling; that may be enough of a reason to draft a guy. Malik is a great tackler from the safety spot. He’s also very athletic, so I’m kind of exaggerating the tackling to make a point.

#5.137 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter

This feels a little late for Zinter, but I’m counting on the lower positional value and the fact that he sustained a pretty serious broken leg in his last game vs Ohio State in November to account for him dropping. It feels a little bit like when Trey Smith fell to the 6th round in 2021 due to some questionable medicals. Zinter, to me, is very much a glue guy that I want to add to the building.

#5.150 – DS, Miami, James Williams

I was late in the process to find James Williams. Which is not an uncommon story for the safety spot. But it’s also partially due to what Williams is as a prospect. He is a 6’5″/215lb safety. In fact, he is so big that the Senior Bowl has listed him at Linebacker. Maybe that’s semantics. As we gradually see transition in the NFL, the Seahawks had already started to use Jamal Adams as more of a linebacker (or maybe that was due to Adams’ particular skillset). I like Williams to bring some intimidation factor back to the Seattle defense regardless of the positional name he’s given. Call him the Buck, call him the Star, call him the Joker…just let him hit people. My only caveat here is that I want more study done on if Williams has a significant weed habit.

#6.193 – RB, South Dakota State, Isaiah Davis

Davis has been in my previous mocks and I’m gonna keep him where he’s at. He was recently added to the Senior Bowl, which may blow up his value, but for now he stays. I would love to see the variety of K9, Charbonnet, and Davis in a RB room. And maybe Mcintosh is something in the future.

#7.232 – LB, Mississippi St, Nathaniel Watson

For a 7th round pick, I’m really just looking around big boards and taking a guy with some kind of outstanding trait at a position of need that is still available. The Seahawks will potentially need to draft two(+) linebackers with Wagner, Brooks, and Bush all heading to free agency. Watson has good size at 6’2″/245lbs, and was a very productive player last year with 137 tackles, 13.0 TFL, 10.0 sacks, 7 hurries, 2 PBU, 1 INT, and 2 FF. He kind of reminds me of Leroy Hill.

It’s crazy…for a draft that I moved around a ton, and made 11 picks, I still could have used some more. I really wanted to find space for Alabama DL Justin Eboigbe. The team really needs some reinforcements at TE. And we easily could have looked to draft an edge replacement for the free agent departing Darrell Taylor. But we make some tough decisions.

December Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

It’s the middle of December 2023. The Seahawks are four-deep into the longest losing streak of the Pete Carroll era, with a chance to make it five on Monday night versus the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. There is more uncertainty about the future of this team than we’ve seen in 12+ years.

There are legitimate questions about whether Pete should continue as the coach. That will be a bigger decision for after the season. The easier call should be that a change needs to be made at quarterback. With the latter in mind, I will propose three things:

  1. Trade Geno Smith to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Geno’s contract, although putting a strain on the Seahawks’ limited cap situation, is not excessive to the point of being unwieldy for teams like Tampa who have around $50mill in space for the 2024 season. The Bucs’ current starter, Baker Mayfield, is on a one-year deal. And, former Seahawk QB coach, Dave Canales is in Tampa as their Offensive Coordinator. So he could know Geno and how to maximize him. I’m asking for the Bucs’ 2nd round pick for Geno. We’ve now replaced the pick given up to get Leonard Williams.
  2. Send the Detroit Lions the third round pick we acquired from Denver in last year’s draft (est. #3.79) in exchange for second year QB Hendon Hooker. Hendon has yet to play as a pro after coming off a knee injury sustained at end of 2022 college season. Tough to gauge his value, so I’m using kind of the “original round tender” idea and giving Detroit the same value they used to draft him last year. I like Hendon more than any of the 2024 class.
  3. Draft a QB from the 2024 class. More on this later

Heading into the draft, I really don’t love the value of the mid-first round players. If you’ve missed on the top three QB’s, which I believe they will, and you’re not terribly interested in drafting one of the top OT on the board, which could fit this range, then I think you might as well trade down.

I will make one quick aside in that I am, for the first time, re-considering Michael Penix. I’ve always liked Penix’ intangibles, but I’ve had questions on the physicals. There’s the obvious injury stuff, he’s not the runner that Russell Wilson was coming out of college and I think PCJS prefer, and I think his arm talent is overrated in the media. But…the thing that I recently looked at that is, at least anecdotally, interesting is the hit rate of………the Heisman runner(s)-up. Look at some of these top 2’s:

Bryce Young or Aidan Hutchinson?
Devonta Smith or Trevor Lawrence?
Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts?
Kyler Murray or Tua Tagavailoa?
Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey?
Robert Griffin or Andrew Luck?
Cam Newton or Andrew Luck?
Matt Leinart or Adrian Peterson?
Jason White or Larry Fitzgerald?
Charles Woodson or Peyton Manning?

I think the 2023 NFL season, and the number of random-ass QB’s that are being forced into duty AND winning games, is showing the modern league may have to change the way it evaluates QB’s. From the on-going rags to riches story of Brock Purdy, to guys just recently splashing like Jake Browning, Tommy Devito, Aidan O’Connell…maybe to lesser extent Bailey Zappe, Easton Stick, Nick Mullens, Gardner Minshew. I think we should take a dart throw. Buuuuuttttt…we should mitigate the risk slightly by pushing the dart throw down the board somewhat. I’m probably not doing it in the 1st round outside of Jayden Daniels.

So let’s up our inventory, up our darts. I’ve got one trade in mind sending the #13 pick to Arizona for #17 and #81. And then I will flip #17 to Cincinnati for #23 and #87. We’ll go into our first pick looking like this:

#1.23, #2.51, #3.75, #3.81, #3.87, #4.114, #5.147, #6.188, #7.229

#1.23 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton

The Seahawks really need to invest in the Center position. They have for years. The ongoing instability there since Max Unger was traded away is potentially one of the lowkey biggest reasons Seattle has not contended since. Evan Brown will be a free agent, and the team hasn’t seem confident in 2023 5th-rounder Olu Oluwatimi.

I don’t love the strength of this class of interior OL. I think it’s much stronger at OT. But that can be a way to find value: moving OT to guard or center. Barton has been playing LT for Duke, and the reports are that his short arms will force him inside. Maybe that’s guard, but I like his intelligence to be a cornerstone at center.

There’s an argument to be made about positional value of centers in the 1st round, or about Seattle never drafting one this early. Some of that should be put aside after they broke trend last year to draft a Corner in the first round for the first time in this regime. And then they picked a WR in the 1st for the first time. If they are really hunting best player available, I think this is the move, with backup plan the Minnesota safety, Tyler Nubin.

#2.51 – LB, NC State, Payton Wilson

Seattle really needs to come out of this draft with a stud linebacker. Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks are both currently free agents at the end of the season. I’d re-sign Brooks at minimum, and might do another one-year deal for Bobby, but I’m really trying to find the next 10-year guy for the middle of the defense.

I’ve got a handful of LB I’m interested in, with Cedric Gray, Michael Barrett near the top, but Wilson checks the most boxes. He’s a big dude at 6’4″/238lbs, he’s a team captain, he’s got great marks for athleticism, he’s extremely productive including top 10 in the country in total tackles and TFL, plus 6.0 sacks, 10 hurries, 3 INT, 6 PBU, 1 FF.

The only downside is potential medical redflag, and possibly him not being available this late after the Combine.

#3.75 – DT, Ohio State, Tyleik Williams

Seattle sort of showed their hand that they wanted improvement from their IDL when they invested a 2nd round pick in a half-year rental for Leonard Williams. It wouldn’t surprise me if they drafted someone at DT in the 1st round. I’m trying to play a bit more strategy and find some hidden gems. I’ve done a LOT of vetting of this class of DT. I like Jer’zhan Newton and T’vondre Sweat if you want to invest that much. There’s a guy out of UMass named Billy Wooden if you really want to take a late flyer. But, in the middle of the draft, I think you look at Auburn’s Marcus Harris and Tyleik Williams.

Williams is 6’2″/290lbs, with 10.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and 5 PBU this year. I think his floor is Jarran Reed.

#3.81 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter

This is a tricky one. Zinter is a two-time winner of the team OL Joe Moore Award, he’s a 2023 first team All-American, and he’s a 6’6″/322lb team captain for the national title contending Michigan team. But he suffered a pretty gruesome broken leg a few weeks ago when he got rolled up on vs Ohio State. This might end up similar to Trey Smith falling to the 6th round in 2021. Personally, I’m not letting him fall. This guy is a culture-setter.

Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes are both gonna be free agents. Between 2023 picks Oluwatimi and Bradford, and 2024 “picks” Barton and Zinter we have four bodies to fill three starting jobs for 2024.

#3.87 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton III

Having “acquired” Hendon Hooker earlier via trade; I’m now free to take a bit more of a risk on a draft QB. And how fun would it be to reunite Hendon with his former teammate at Tennessee, Joe Milton?

I’ve been curious since about this time last year at how the media would treat the huge-armed Milton in the same offense that people gave a ton of shit to Hooker for playing in. Milton has objectively performed much worse than Hooker in the same scheme, and really nobody is overrating him just based on his physical traits. Hooker was the #2 rated passer in college last year behind CJ Stroud at 175.51…Milton this year is closer to #40 at 147.27. Hooker was 27 TD, 2 INT over 329 attempts, Milton is 20 TD, 5 INT in 354 attempts. Hooker ran for 430 yards, 4.13 ypc, 5 TD, Milton ran for 299 yards, 3.83 ypc, 7 TD.

If Milton can learn to throttle down his arm a bit, there are enough other traits here to interest me, and it would be very fun to watch him develop. I could see a Dak Prescott trajectory. Well worth the 3rd round investment on a 6’5″/235lb leopard tank.

#4.114 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Safety is a spot that Seattle really needs to re-evaluate this offseason. They’re currently paying a ton of money to their starting duo that are both having the worst years of their careers. Julian Love seems like an okay piece to keep on the roster, but you don’t want him to be a focal point. I don’t know what the future would be for Coby Bryant if he’s now a safety. Jerrick Reed is currently post-op of a knee surgery, and never really got much play before he got hurt.

I’d be pretty okay with Seattle spending a high pick on Tyler Nubin, who I like as a centerfield, ball-hawking deep safety. And I like Mustapha when he’s in the box coming downhill. That might be a sick combo. I didn’t do that pairing in this mock, but it was highly considered.

Mustapha is a 5’11″/207lb technician with 80 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 1 FF for the year. Should be a good athletic tester, too.

#5.147 – DL, Alabama, Justin Eboigbe

This is probably a pipe dream to get an Alabama DL this late, but I haven’t seen Eboigbe ranked very highly to this point. I’d like to get Seattle a replacement for free agent Darrell Taylor, and there is some good volume/depth at that profile in guys like Mohamed Kamara, Nelson Ceaser, Jasheen Davis, but I just didn’t have enough picks. Instead, I’m going to give them another shot at the Mike Morris profile. Morris is 6’6″/292lbs, Eboigbe is 6’5″/292lbs. This year Eboigbe posted 11.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, and 4 hurries.

Alabama uses him all over the line, so you can get some outside reps from him. But he also has enough sand in his pants to play the run inside.

#6.188 – DS, Ohio State, Josh Proctor

I don’t know that Proctor is the centerfield counterpoint to Mustapha that I’d like to find, but he’s a good player and great value this late. He’s 6’2″/205lbs with 41 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 INT, 8 PBU this year. And he packs a punch.

#7.229 – RB, South Dakota State, Isaiah Davis

Davis is a 6’1″/220lb running back that has run for almost 1500 yards and 17 TD this year for the Jackrabbits while averaging almost 7.00 ypc. With Deejay Dallas a free agent after the year and Kenny Mcintosh still a huge question mark; it feels appropriate to take a late-round flyer RB.

The jump-cuts for a back this size are very intriguing.

I think my mock is short on a tightend with the turnover coming at the position, but I really don’t like this class. Plus, Seattle doesn’t seem to know how to use them. Maybe that’s a Geno problem, cause even Russell with his height seemed to find ways to use them more. Regardless, I just preferred to go other directions.

After spending 1st round picks on CB and WR last year; I passed on those spots this year, even though both classes are pretty nice throughout the draft. People thought we didn’t need a RB last year when they took Charbonnet, but that’s turned out to be a pretty nice pick. I won’t begrudge a BPA pick if one happens again this year.

Seahawk 2024 Mock #1

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

This has been a hard year for me to get to study college football, and even less so to get to write about it. Even as I’m starting to write this I’m looking at the clock and thinking I’ve got maybe two hours to get it done, or it waits until next week. So let’s work fast.

Seattle currently sits at 8 draft picks for 2024. That’s 7 native picks, and the 3rd rounder they acquired from Denver for trading back in the 2023 draft. Some people are conflating that pick is related to the Russell Wilson trade. It is not. This is a separate transaction.

The Hawks currently sit in a playoff position after their first five games, and we can put them at roughly the #21 overall in the first round.

The interesting thing about mock drafts in October is that nobody really has a good feel for how 250+ players are going to still be valued in 6 months. I did a mock draft for the 2023 draft literally 364 days ago where I had Seattle drafting Devon Witherspoon at #2.44 overall, and Zach Charbonnet at #4.113 (check it out here). A big part of the reason for this is that, this early in the process, I’m not really putting a round value on players. I have a value in my head of what I think a player is worth, but I’m looking at a national source to set the price. I don’t really want to say this early that a player that other people are valuing in the 3rd is going to be in the 1st round when all is said and done. I would very much like Seattle to be able to get said player in the 3rd. It probably won’t happen, but let’s see. This also creates a documented paper trail to watch how players rise (or fall) throughout the process.

Okay, so here are the players I like at their current going prices.

#1.21 – QB, Louisiana State, Jayden Daniels

I really didn’t care for many of the players that are currently being valued in the late-1st round. The national source I’m using currently has him squarely in the middle of the 2nd round. But looking at draft media after Daniels’ game last Saturday; I think he’ll be getting a pretty big bump right quick.

Daniels is a nicely-proportioned 6’4″/210lb quarterback currently leading FBS in passer rating, while also being one of the top runners at his position.

I don’t know that Seattle will draft a QB this early with Geno continuing to play well, but they’re also coming up on Drew Lock being a free agent after this year. So, I do think they draft a QB this year, but I kinda doubt it’s in the 1st round. Personally, I’m watching, ironically, the current Missouri QB, Brady Cook, as a guy potentially draftable in like the 3rd round. But, for now, this is appropriate value in the 1st until other players rise in stock.

#2.52 – OC, Georgia, Sedrick Van Pran

In terms of the draft, nothing has frustrated me more about Seattle’s last, roughly, three drafts than the way they’ve handled the Center position. And not far behind that is the way they’ve handled the Guard spot. I’m not gonna get into the names, but there have been multiple pro bowlers painfully passed over.

Although they did finally draft a center last year; the fact that he isn’t starting right now, when guys like Cross, Lucas, Lewis were all day 1 starters following their respective drafts; is a redflag, to me. Also worth noting that Evan Brown will be a free agent.

So I’m going back to the well with a guy I very much liked in 2023 cycle, but who stayed in school. Van Pran is a 6’4″/310lb anchor for the defending national champs, and who are still the #1 in the country in 2023.

#3.70 – DT, Texas, T’vondre Sweat

This may be my worst pick in this mock due to need. Or lack thereof. Seattle, unless they cut somebody, is in pretty good shape going into 2024 in terms of the interior DL. They basically will return everyone (unless you count Mario Edwards as DT). And, if they do draft a DT, will it be a beefy nose tackle type, or will they want more passrush? If it’s the latter, maybe slot a guy like Notre Dame’s Howard Cross III in this spot.

I guess the reason I’m taking Sweat here is that he’s the rarer beast in this class. He’s listed 6’4″/362lbs. Most of this class of DT are in the 6’1″ range, and quite a few are sub-300 lbs. There’s still value to that profile, but it feels like a 2024 pick will have a better chance of taking reps from Cam Young than he will of taking reps from Jarran Reed or Dre’mont Jones.

#3.87 – OG, Kansas State, Cooper Beebe

For the third consecutive pick we reinforce the trenches. Well, maybe it’s not “reinforcing”…both 2023 week 1 starting guards, Lewis and Haynes, will be unrestricted free agents after this year. So we may need to replace one, or both. Anthony Bradford may continue as the RG, but I’m leaning toward letting both Lewis and Haynes go.

Beebe is listed at 6’4″/335lbs. There are reasons I think this isn’t a Seahawk pick, but I think Seattle is stupid for those reasons. Beebe is the type of player that I’m annoyed Seattle has passed on for three years. Please, don’t make it four.

#4.122 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray

This pick already feels to me like the Zach Charbonnet pick last year. I’m only mocking him here right now because he’s available here nationally right now.

But also, linebacker is a huge need for the Seahawks for next year. Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, and Devin Bush are all free agents. I would guess they keep Brooks. I’m like 60/40 they give Bobby another year. But they still need to plan for the future.

I liked Gray last year, but he stayed in school. Simultaneously, I don’t really think most of the more touted linebacker prospects have played great this year. I’ll take the lesser name, with the equal-to-greater production, at the two-round discount any day.

Gray is listed 6’3″/235lbs and has posted a season line of 52 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 6 hurries, 1 INT, 3 PBU, and 1 FF. It’s a very well-rounded line from a well-rounded player at the center of an undefeated defense.

#5.158 – DE, North Carolina, Kaimon Rucker

Kaimon Rucker might be my favorite player in this whole draft class (definitely in this mock draft), and he’s not even listed in most sites’ big boards under #200 overall.

He’s listed at 6’2″/265lbs, with 29 tackles, 10.0 TFL, 6.5 sack, 8 hurries for that same Tar Heel defense Gray comes from. I’m not going to get into all the reasons I’m liking him, as I’m trying to write fast, but here’s a highlight of him to whet your appetite.

#6.198 – TE, Minnesota, Brevyn Spann Ford

Seattle has a complicated history, and certainly present, with their TE room. They currently have three pretty good TE that, I feel, they woefully underuse. If you don’t know how, or don’t care, to use your TE…I can’t in good good conscience draft one early. But they did also just draft JSN in the 1st to catch three six yard screen passes per game. So who knows? Either way Seattle needs to add TE depth with both Fant and Parkinson coming into free agency.

BSF is a monster of a man at 6’7″/270lbs that has become a forgotten entity in the 2023 Minnesota season. He’s got 13 catches (2.2/gm) for 66 yards (5.08ypc) and zero TD. In 2022 with a different quarterback, Spann posted 42 catches (3.2/gm) for 497 yards (11.83ypc), and 2 TD. So we get him undervalued, and we put him in a system that doesn’t ask for much in a fantasy sense. Could work.

At this point, I’m going to wrap up. I’m pressed for time, and really a 7th rounder in October is less than a dart throw. But we got some good names in there that I’ll be bummed to lose out on as the year and draft stock evolves.

2023 Instant MLB Draft Redux

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re two weeks out from the 2023 MLB Draft…teams have until Tuesday to sign any remaining unsigned draftpicks…so we already have signing bonus figures on the majority of this class. This means we can create an instant draft redux. This is something I first tried last year. There are basically only two rules: 1) the player had to have been on the board at the respective Mariner draft pick, 2) the signing bonus amount the players actually signed for must collectively fit under Seattle’s available draft pool = $13,170,900.

This is what last year’s redux looks like in 2023 performance:

1.21 – Cole Young .278/.407/.871, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 19 SB, #6 in class for total bases.

#2.58 – Tyler Locklear .311/.419/.992, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 7×7 SB in 48 games before breaking hand on HBP. #8 in entire class in OPS.

#2.74 – Andrew Taylor 4.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 13.2 SO/9, 2.93 SO/BB.

#4.126 – Hunter Patteson 4.42 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, 7.67 SO/BB coming back from Tommy John surgery.

#5.156 – Caden Dana 3.56 ERA, 1.185 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9, 2.97 SO/BB.

#6.186 – Tyler Guilfoil 2.31 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 13.3 SO/9, 4.06 SO/BB.

#7.216 – Hogan Windish .256/.377/.831, 10 HR, 52 RBI, tied for #29 in class in HR.

#8.246 – Tatem Levins .265/.350/.806, 6 HR, 35 RBI.

#9.276 – Brett Gillis 0.00 ERA, 0.500, 13.5 SO/9 in only 2.0 IP before season ending injury.

#10.306 – Andrew Cossetti .300/.431/.982, 10 HR, 46 RBI. #11 in class in season OPS.

#11.336 – Chris Newell .270/.379/.926, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 15 SB. #3 in class in HR and total bases.

#12.366 – Brooks Baldwin .234/.324/.746, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 12 SB.

#13.396 – Ben Sears 2.49 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 7.14 SO/BB, 7 saves. #6 in class in saves.

#14.426 – Sammy Natera 4.91 ERA, 1.491 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, 2.15 SO/BB.

#15.456 – Trey Braithwaite *has not played.

#16.486 – Luke Franzoni *has not played.

#17.516 – Stefan Raeth 4.20 ERA, 1.567 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9, 1.95 SO/BB.

#18.546 – Duncan Davitt 5.05 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9, 3.19 SO/BB.

#19.576 – Bryson Worrell .200/.311/.694, 6 HR, 15 SB.

#20.606 – Josh Zamora .246/.303/.680, 5 HR.

So this group yielded three of the top 20 players by OPS from the entire class. 7 of 9 pitchers have posted over 11.0 SO/9 rates. I think that’s a pretty damn promising group thus far.

For the 2023 version of the redux; I’m trying to incorporate as close to parallel drafts to the Mariners actual draft. This means: same ratio of bats to pitchers, same number of high school to college, close to the same positional breakdown, close to same ratio of left to right handedness. And here’s what I came up with:

1.22 (#26 real) – SS, George Lombard, $3.3mill

Colt Emerson is easily my least-favorite pick in this class, and it pisses me off that they paid $3.8mill for him. I don’t think the test of time is going to be kind to that pick. Lombard rates better than Emerson (and fellow prep SS pick Tai Peete) in all measurable categories, and my hunch is that Seattle overlooked him simply because they were pre-determined to force lefthanded bats early. Lombard was on the younger side of this class as a guy that only turned 18 in June…which is also an element Seattle seemed focused on. Lombard, to me, was a better version of Tai Peete with a better chance to stick at short.

Lombard’s bonus of $3.3mill would be underslot the 22nd pick value of $3.5mill, whereas Emerson was overslot.

1.29 (#29 real) – OF, Jonny Farmelo, $3.2mill

Easily my favorite of the Mariners’ high school picks; Farmelo gets to stay. He’s a premium athlete that should stay in centerfield, and I really like the smooth lefty swing. If he can add power as he fills out physically…this will be a nice pick.

1.30 (#37 real) – SS, Kevin McGonigle, $2.85mill

This was probably the toughest pick to make. There were quite a few high school bats that were available here, and signed for reasonable bonus money. Colin Houck was ranked #12 and fell to #32 where he signed for only $2.75mill. Walker Martin was ranked #30 and fell to #52, but I never really loved his defense. Nazzan Zanetello felt very similar to M’s 2nd round pick Aidan Smith in his potential for five tools, but Nazzan actually had better athleticism scores in high school.

In an effort to keep the same ratio of lefthanded hitting high school bats; I’m passing on Houck and Zanetello. McGonigle, to me, feels like a better version of what Seattle thinks Emerson is. Lefty, high baseball IQ, high exit velocities, elite plate discipline, probably ends up at 2B.

In terms of dollars…Tai Peete signed for slightly underslot from the $2.73mill assigned amount, and McGonigle is slightly overslot.

2.57 (#87 real) – 3B, Eric Bitonti, $1.75mill

It doesn’t really make sense to me that Seattle drafted #78 ranked Aidan Smith in the 4th round at #124 only to pay him overslot $1.2mill. What if he was drafted closer to where he was ranked? At the same time, they made a mulit-round reach to draft Ben Williamson in the 2nd. Why? Just draft the guys closest to where they’re valued.

Bitonti checks the boxes Seattle seemed to value in age (2nd youngest player in the entire draft), he’s lefthanded, and his future position is probably 3rd base which Seattle drafted three of total.

Slot here is $1.44mill, so Bitonti is overslot and costs more than Aidan Smith did, but we saved a bunch pivoting off Emerson to Lombard, so we’re still in pretty comparable space overall.

3.92 (123 real) – RHP, Wyatt Hudepohl, $500k

I’m replacing the twice-TJ’d Teddy McGraw with a healthy Hudepohl. Spoiler alert: I won’t be keeping much of the pitching that Seattle drafted. I did the same thing last year. Seattle has pivoted from what has worked for them for years to identify quality college pitchers. My guess is that they are miscrediting the reasons they think those guys worked to the wrong traits. I’d expect we see a big gap in the quality of pitching in the system in 2025.

Anyways…Hudepohl falls more in line with a pitcher Seattle would have drafted between 2018-2021. I’m not changing my methodology.

4.124 (169 real) – RHP, Coleman Picard, $343k

In theory, Picard could be the pick at #160 in the 5th. I’m putting him here simply by following the money. The thought behind both Hudepohl and Picard is: Bryan Woo. Mid-major righty drafted on day 2 with some legit present stuff, and upside for more.

5.160 (160 real) – 2B, Brock Rodden, $200k

For the second consecutive year, Seattle has done really interesting work drafting college bats. Last year it was guys like Locklear, Windish, Levins. This year I’d rank Ben Williamson, Rodden, Schreck, Pagliarini in that group. I actually would have loved to get Williamson in a later round than the 2nd, but by rules of this exercise; I can’t project him available past his actual draft location.

Rodden is the exact type of player I was targeting in the 5th round in my mocks before the draft as a senior-sign middle infielder, and so it makes sense to keep him where he was.

6.187 (240 real) – RHP, Josh Bostick, $397k

This was the last draftpick spot for me to fill. I really just didn’t like anyone the league drafted in the 6th-7th round range. So, again, I followed the money. Bostick was drafted in the 8th round, but he signed for 5th round money. He’s one of a number of promising JUCO pitchers in this class. Some of those guys signed, some of them opted for fulfilling their transfer commitments to D1 schools.

Bostick was up to 98mph this summer on the Cape with a four-pitch mix and over 15.00 SO/9 in the spring.

7.217 (235 real) – 1B, Jackson Feltner, $175k

Feltner is a bit of an audible as Seattle didn’t draft any 1B, but they did sign one in UDFA. Feltner hit .348/.477/1.130 with 14 HR in 56 games, and scored very well in my rake score.

8.247 (276 real) – 3B, Nick Lorusso, $50k

This is crazy. Lorusso hit .379/.446/1.211 with 26 HR, and an insane 105 RBI in his 61 game season. He was a senior so there was always probability that he would be underdrafted, and almost 100% certainty he’d be underslotted, but $50k is an absolute steal.

9.277 (277 real) – OF, RJ Schreck, $75k

I probably didn’t give outfield enough attention before the draft, but once Seattle drafted Schreck I ran him through my rake score metric, and he scored really comparable to 1st round pick Chase Davis. So we’re keeping him right where he was.

10.307 (325 real) – RHP, Casey Anderson, $150k

It’s a little bit tough this year to identify which guys Seattle drafted to pitch in starting roles, and which will immediately be relievers.

Teddy McGraw – 12 starts, 34 appearances
Brody Hopkins – 12 starts, 17 appearances
Ty Cummings – 3 starts, 74 appearances
Ryan Hawks – 15 starts, 47 appearances
Brandyn Garcia – 19 starts, 51 appearances
Logan Evans – 23 starts, 39 appearances
Elijah Dale – 0 starts, 29 appearances
Ernie Day – 15 starts, 21 appearances
Daniel Ouderkirk – 11 starts, 35 appearances
Will Watson – 5 starts, 39 appearances

So I’m kinda just targeting 5 starters, 5 relievers. I’m considering Anderson a starter at 6’4″/180lbs with a 3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 11.74 SO/9 and 3.60 SO/BB.

At this point we’ve completed 10 rounds and we can do an accounting recap. The M’s bonus pool was $13,170,900. The M’s actually spent $12,865,500 leaving $305,400 in surplus. This re-mock came to a total of $12,990,500…surplus of $180,400. So that gives us some flexability in rounds 11-20.

11.337 (411 real) – LHP, Josh Trentadue, $330k

In a fascinating coincidence, Trentadue and Casey Anderson both came through the College of Southern Idaho in 2022. In 2023, Trentadue was still at Southern Idaho where he posted 2.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16.01 SO/9, and 4.92 SO/BB. He’s 6’2″/185lbs and has a fastball at 94mph from the southpaw side.

Josh was a starter this year and that’s where I will keep him for now. Josh has officially signed with Boston, but his bonus amount has not been announced. He can sign for $150k without counting against the bonus pool, but Seattle also has a surplus of $180,400. So that’s where I’m getting the $330,000 figure.

12.367 (397 real) – RHP, Elijah Dale, $125k

It’s still not entirely clear why Seattle changed how they scout college pitching. I have a couple guesses, but it will take some time to see them develop (or not develop). But Elijah Dale is a guy that they probably would have identified with the old system. So I’m keeping him in the fold.

13.397 (413 real) – LHP, Jack Sellinger, $100k

For as much as it seems Seattle targeted drafting lefthanded hitters; they only drafted one lefthanded pitcher. Brandyn Garcia who was exclusively a reliever this year at Texas A&M. Garcia had decent numbers, but Sellinger’s numbers are better in my pitching “shove” metric, so he’s a slight upgrade in my system.

14.427 (427 real) – RHP, Ernie Day, $150k

As I looked at my 2022 draft redux; it didn’t escape me that I really had nothing to show past round #15. Maybe that’s a failing on my part, or maybe it’s just emblematic that there isn’t generally much MLB talent that falls through the cracks this late. With that in mind; I left a lot of these late round picks alone. There’s simultaneously indifference to the guys Seattle actually drafted, and no meaningful confidence in my own alternatives.

Day has great size at 6’4″/225lbs, no particularly standout stats other than almost 12.00 SO/9, but his present fastball touches 96mph, and we’ll see.

15.457 (457 real) – OF, Carson Jones, $150k

As with Ernie Day; I have no particular reason for or against keeping Jones. My mock is a little light on outfielders, and he hits lefty with decent power and on-base skill so I’ll keep him in the mix.

16.487 (515 real) – UT, Trey Paige, $150k

I don’t dislike the M’s real 16th round pick of Caleb Cali. He’s sort of 3rd tier of my rake score. But Trey Paige is 2nd tier. Paige is a 6’0″/215lb athlete who hits lefty, and is a pretty legit utility defender. Trey has played college games at: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF and within that mix the highest concentrations at SS, 3B, and LF. His bat hit to the tune of .372/.468/1.159 with 14 HR and 53 RBI in 48 games this year.

17.517 (UDFA) – C, Grant Magill, $100k

Really, the only college bat Seattle drafted that didn’t make sense to me was the catcher they picked, Jacob Sharp. He just doesn’t appear to have any outstanding trait. And, unfortunately, there aren’t many catchers on the board with outstanding bats. So I pivot to the college catcher that is, at least, a defensive standout.

Magill is a terrific catch-and-throw receiver with great leadership.

18.547 (578 real) – RHP, Josh Harlow, $100k

Harlow is mostly just a shot in the dark. He’s listed 6’3″/215lb righty that has primarily started in his college career. He only made 7 appearances last year so there may be an injury. But he posted good numbers when he did play: 2.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.74 SO/9, and 4.38 SO/BB.

19.577 (577 real) – 3B, Charlie Pagliarini, $100k

Pagliarini was another bat from my study that profiled as 2nd tier. So, in theory, he may be the best value in the M’s class. He’s 6’2″/210lbs and hit .399/.528/1.379 with 24 HR, 97 RBI, and 14 SB in 55 games.

20.607 (UDFA) – RHP, Bennett Flynn, $100k

The M’s real 20th round pick is the only player they haven’t signed (at time of publishing). Which means he isn’t an option to keep. Flynn went undrafted, so I’m just gonna offer him $100k, which seems common in this late rounds. Flynn in 2023 posted 3.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13.10 SO/9.

Mariners July Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re less than a week before the 2023 MLB Draft, with night one coming to Lumen Field in our very own Seattle next Sunday, July 9. Night one will consist of the first two rounds, followed by rounds 3-10 on Monday, and finishing with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday the 11th. The Mariners have one of the larger bonus pools in the league stemming from their awarding of two bonus first round picks.

The recent media buzz, and a bit of insight from M’s director of amateur scouting, Scott Hunter, himself; it very much feels like Seattle will attack the first round by targeting high school hitters. Second to HS bats will be College bats as the first round isn’t strong in pitching. It seems like the current prevailing buzz is that there’s going to be a run on college bats before the M’s will be on the clock. This will probably play directly in to Seattle’s favor as they want to land some difference-making youth.

1.22 – SS, Gulliver Prep HS, George Lombard Jr

Most draft boards are just chock full of high school shortstops from about 20-40 overall. It’s not a question of ‘IF’ Seattle drafts one…it’s a question of ‘how many?’ and ‘which?’ My guess is that Seattle is more likely to take someone like Colt Emerson, Sammy Stafura, or Walker Martin, but I prefer Lombard.

Lombard is a 6’3″/190lb MLB legacy shortstop with above average tools across the board. He’s got a college commitment to Vanderbilt, which I’m guessing will make him on the tougher side of signing, but slot here is $3.4mill and I would offer him the full-slot.

1.29 – C, Huntington Beach HS, Raffaele Velazquez

This pick should probably be another prep shortstop or centerfielder, but I just think the opportunity to grab a lefty-hitting catcher with high school homerun derby winning power is too good to pass up.

Velazquez is a 6’3″/215lb backstop that isn’t the fleetest of foot, but he’s got a decent arm and good pop-times. He’s also spent time at 1B, and the bat would probably carry him there, too, with present exit velocities already hitting 109mph. He’s committed to ASU, and slot bonus here is $2.8mill.

1.30 – 3B, Aquinas HS, Eric Bitonti

I’d kinda like to get a college bat here like a Brayden Taylor, Brock Wilken, Nolan Schanuel, but a) it feels like those names are now likely to come off the board between 10-25, b) based on Scott Hunter’s comments; it doesn’t sound like Seattle will try to get cute in the first round and reach on a player in order to underslot him and use the savings later on.

There’s some risk in drafting three consecutive high school players as they can sometimes demand more in signing bonus with the threat of going to college looming around them, but historically most prep players drafted in the first will sign. So it’s not implausible the M’s go this route.

Bitonti is a 6’5″/218lb kid…he’s literally 17 years old until November…that just oozes upside. He’s been playing shortstop for his highschool, but he’s got the power and arm strength to make a smooth transition to third base. He’s got one of my favorite swings in this HS class. Eric is committed to Oregon and bonus for #30 is $2.7mill. This is a bit of a reach pick, so you may be able to sign him for a little underslot, but in my mock I’m budgeting to give him the full slot.

2.57 – LHP, Ohio State, Isaiah Coupet

Seattle has a metric in-house that they call something along the lines of the “shove” metric. I’ve been tinkering with my own version of this idea for a few years. From this class, Isaiah Coupet had one of the higher scores for a lefthander. If I was being stricter to the pure algorithm this pick would be Wake Forest LHP Sean Sullivan, but when I cross reference with the tape I just preferred Coup.

Coupet is a 6’1″/190lb southpaw that has similar size and shove score to recent 2nd-round lefties Andrew Abbott and Logan Allen. Abbott was drafted out of UVA in 2021 with the #53 overall pick for $1.3mill, and Allen was drafted #56 overall in 2020 for $1.125mill. Slot for #57 this year is $1.4mill, but I’m gonna try to get Coupet here, earlier than his 3rd-4th round projection, for $1.2mill.

3.92 – RHP, Charlotte, Wyatt Hudepohl

In his recent, pre-draft media huddle; Scott Hunter talked about the success Seattle has had drafting pitching from mid-major college programs like Elon (Kirby), Stetson (Gilbert), Cal Poly (Woo); and Hudepohl would be looking to continue that pattern.

The former Kentucky transfer; Wyatt has great size at 6’4″/220lbs, and though present fastball is mostly in the 93mph zone, his curveball is pretty special. He has eligibility remaining, so this won’t be an underslot guy. #92 is scheduled for a bonus of $736,400.

I’d also be pretty interested lefty-hitting Michigan State 1B Brock Vradenburg here.

4.124 – LHP, Dunedin HS, Trey Beard

Personally, I don’t trust Seattle to scout HS pitchers. I don’t know what they’re doing to pick the guys they do. I don’t know why it fails so often when the same scouting group evaluates college pitchers quite well. So I seriously doubt the M’s will come to the same conclusion on Trey Beard that I have. But this is a mock of what I would do, not what I think Seattle will do.

Trey Beard already has a great pitcher’s frame at 6’3″/190lbs, but some room to grow. His current repertoire isn’t that of a power pitcher, but he does show some promising scores on his pitch analytics. He’s a different TYPE of pitcher than Mariners’ 2022 fourth round pick Ashton Izzi, but the signing bonus negotiation could go similarly. Izzi was picked at #126 overall and signed for overslot at $1.1mill.

Slot for #124 is $531,300 and I’m trying to get Beard signed for $1mill even. His college commitment is to FAU.

5.160 – 2B/SS, North Kentucky, Noah Fisher

This will be the first true senior-signing of this mock. Noah Fisher is a 6’0″/195lb middle-infielder coming from Northern Kentucky who is already 23 years old. But he hit .343/.502/1.218 this spring with 19 homeruns and almost a 20% walk rate.

Seattle will oftentimes do senior-sign deals of, like, $20k in the 5th-10th rounds, but I’m not a huge fan of that. I’m budgeting to give Fisher $125k, which still saves you $249,400 towards other signings.

6.187 – RHP, Bryant, Coleman Picard

Coleman Picard is another mid-major RHP that fits recent Seattle profile. Listed at 6’2″/185lbs with a fastball currently reaching 95mph and a very good curve. The M’s pulled Bryan Woo out of the 6th round in 2021, so here’s to hoping they can do it again.

7.217 – OF, P27 Academy, Alfonsin Rosario

After a few picks going to the pitching side, I’m coming back to HS bats with Alfonsin Rosario. He’s listed at 6’2″/215lbs, and though he’s on the older side of high school players, that could probably also lower his signing price. His college commitment is only to a junior college, which may signal that he’s eager to sign now, or certainly to be eligible again immediately next year.

Alfonsin has a pretty traditional right field profile with one of the best OF arms in the class, and some high-end exit velocity scores.

8.247 – 1B, Morehead State, Jackson Feltner

Prior to the 2022 MLB Draft I started working on a hitting metric to help identify players I thought Seattle might be interested in. I ran the same study this year, but due to the theory that the M’s are gonna be focusing on high school hitters early; we missed out on most of the first tier of scorers in the ‘rake’ metric. I was able to fit in a few players that scored in the second tier across this mock, but they are basically all smaller school guys. But, technically, Tyler Locklear was a smaller school guy last year and they drafted him.

Jackson Feltner was one of these second tier guys. He’s 6’3″/220lbs and hit .348/.477/1.130 with 14 HR, and 32 XBH in 56 games this year. He was also a promising performer at the recent MLB Combine where he posted a max exit velocity of 110.6mph. And, though they weren’t published, I bet he would have scored high in bat-speed.

9.277 – RHP, Utah Valley, Casey Anderson

Casey Anderson is a 6’4″/180lb righthander that has bounced around the college game for a few years now. He will be 23 years old in August, so he could be another possibility for a senior sign, underslot pick, but with my personal philosophy; I would only save about $50k here.

Anderson split time pretty evenly between starting and relieving for Utah Valley last year across 15 appearances, 8 starts. In a summer-league game last week, his fastball was clocked up to 96.6mph, and he has a plus slider. This combo may make him a fast mover in the bullpen.

10.307 – 3B, Seminole State JC, Xavier Casserilla

There are so many ways to look for players in a baseball draft. This year, I happen to really like a lot of players that were at junior colleges this spring. Many of them have college commitments to D1 schools for 2024, which could be legit, but also could be posturing for draft leverage.

But here’s the thing…with the transfer portal in its current form, one could move from one school to another basically at any time. If a player is at a 4-year school; they can be drafted from that school after three years (less if they are over 21 years old). If you spend a year at a 4-year school, then transfer to JUCO; you can be drafted after your second overall year in college. That’s basically the only reason you transfer down to JUCO. If you’re okay waiting three years to be eligible; you can transfer from one 4-year to a different 4-year.

This is the situation Casserilla is in. He transferred from Wichita State down to JUCO between 2022 to 2023. So, although he is currently committed to power five school Oklahoma State for 2024, I deduce he will want to sign if drafted. This year he hit .378/.481/1.262 with 24 HR, 86 RBI in 64 games.

11.337 – 2B, Nesbit HS, Colton Coates

This is an interesting one. Colton Coates is a 6’1″/180lb high school switch-hitting utility infielder. But thanks to one of the newer developments in amateur baseball scouting…the MLB Draft League…Colton is currently playing against primarily college players in said league. And he’s kinda raking.

As an 18 year old in the MLBDL; Colton is hitting .338/.444/.823 with 3 doubles, 13 RBI, 4 SB, 15 BB, 12 SO in 20 games. He has a commitment to Louisiana Tech, but his placement in a thing called “Draft League” is giving me an intuition that he will sign.

12.367 – LHP, Southern Idaho, Josh Trentadue

Josh Trentadue is a 6’2″/185lb lefty that posted one of the, arguably, top 5 seasons of all JUCO pitchers in 2023. Across 66.1 IP, 12 starts he posted 2.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16.01 SO/9, and 6.78 H/9. In a recent bullpen his fastball was up to 94mph.

13.397 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece

Unlike a number of Seattle-centric mock drafts I’ve seen recently; I don’t and won’t have Seattle drafting outfielders in the early rounds. In 2022 the earliest OF they drafted was Bill Knight in the 10th. In 2021 it was Colin Davis in the 7th. In the 2020 covid draft it was Zach Deloach in the 2nd. In 2019 it was a guy named Antoine Mistico in the 12th.

Because of some combination of the young talent they have in the OF on the major league club, the relative ease with which there is acquiring OF’er via trade, or the ability to build OF from converted IF; it’s historically not a huge urgency to draft them.

Ryley Preece is kind of a cool profile at 5’11″/170lbs, switch-hitter with exactly 21 HR and 21 SB this year in 56 games, plus a slash of .335/.454/1.192. Limited tape I could find also suggests a solid defender. It’d be an interesting target as developmental 4th-outfielder.

14.427 – 2B, UConn, David Smith

David Smith is a name I came across when I was pointedly trying to add some speed to my mock draft. He’s a 5’10″/190lb switch-hitter who primarily plays 2B, but can also play OF, and in 2023 he was a UConn team captain who stole 39 bases in 44 tries. Plus he hit .304/.429/.893 with 19 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homeruns.

There are a few guys in this mock that are included with thoughts on how they will contribute to the locker room, and Smith is one.

15.457 – RHP, Florida SW, Marty Gair

In 2021 Seattle drafted a RHP out of junior college in the 14th round named Andrew Moore who was 6’5″ and pulling some pretty serious heat. Marty Gair is a JUCO righty listed at 6’6″, only 20 years old, and rocking it up to 98mph this year.

He made 9 appearances this year…all as starter…and you could see his velo literally blossoming during the season: 94mph in January, 96mph in February, and 98 mph by March. With a move to the ‘pen, you have to wonder if those numbers might tick up a bit more, and hopefully his 5.50 BB/9 will tick down.

16.487 – C, Indiana State, Grant Magill

Every draft you probably want to come out of your 20 or so picks with a couple standard things: one would be a couple shortstops, one would be a couple catchers. Although they don’t really get credit for it…basically because the hit tool(s) often lag behind…the M’s have put together a nice collection of catchers in their farm system. Harry Ford is the only catcher on their top 30 prospects, but names like Jake Anchia (37% caught stealing), Matt Scheffler (31% CS), Tatem Levins (30% CS), German Guilarte (32% CS), Connor Charping (50% CS in small sample) are all quality receivers.

So that factors into my search for draft catchers. The Gold Glove awards gives out annual honors to one catcher at each level of college, and this year the D2 winner Tyler Boggs threw out 44% of attempted basestealers, and the D1 Gold Glove’r Grant Magill threw out 47%.

I’m drafting Magill for his glove, and for his leadership (this guy has future manager written all over him). Boggs might be the better pick for some upside in his bat (.347/.420/.849).

17.517 – RHP, Davidson, Bennett Flynn

Bennett Flynn is a 6’1″/175lb righthanded reliever that I’ve had my eye on for a couple years. He’s consistently posted strikeout numbers over 13.0 per nine. He was especially effective in 2022 when he finished the year with a 1.41 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and a miniscule 4.7 H/9.

18.547 – SS, Indiana, Phillip Glasser

As I’ve talked about with a few of these later-round draftpicks; Phillip Glasser is someone that I’m putting higher value on for his leadership. I think it’s an important counterpoint to balance out the number of high school players we’re adding.

Glasser is a 6’0″/200lb lefty-hitting senior shortstop that hit .357/.444/.959 with 7 HR, 19 doubles, and 14 SB this year.

19.577 – LHP, UNLV, Jack Sellinger

Jack Sellinger is a 6’3″/210lb lefty reliever that struck out 14.8/nine across 39.0 innings this year. He’ll be 24 years old in November, but this is the kind of player you get in the 19th round.

20.607 – 3B, Delaware State, Trey Paige

Trey Paige is a 6’0″/215lb true utility type that hits lefthanded and can play almost every position on defense. Across his college career, Paige has played 3 games at 1B, 36 games at 2B, 51 games at 3B, 52 games at SS, 2 games in RF, 10 games in CF, and 28 games in LF. He hit .372/.468/1.159 this year with 15 doubles, 14 homeruns, 10 stolen base in 48 games.

In addition to the aforementioned, highly crafted draftees; I thought I would give some names that I’m also interested in, but that didn’t fit in the over-arching structure.

SS/CF Nazzan Zanetello – high school player with potential for 5 tools, that probably requires a top 30 pick for Seattle.

RHP Tanner Witt – Texas starter would have been VERY high on my list in 2022 before he needed Tommy John surgery. Tough to place his value now after a 10.97 ERA in his first 10 innings back from rehab.

SS Josh Rivera – After some fresh helium post- college world series; I found it tough to justify taking Rivera in the 2nd round, but I really like the player.

RHP Seth Keener – One of the higher scorers in my shove metric, I’d be fine if Seattle drafted Keener. His shove score was VERY similar to Coupet and I simply gave favoritism to the rarer lefty starter.

C Alberto Rios – Stanford moved him off of catcher which probably muddled his evaluation, but the bat was 2nd tier in my rake study.

1B Brock Vradenburg – An interesting name to track as he hit .400 in the regular season with quality plate discipline. He didn’t show a ton of power (13 HR in 55 games), but then at the MLB Combine he had top-end exit velocities and homer distance. The power might be coming and soon.

LHP Wil Libbert – There’s something to this HS lefty.

RHP Jackson Baumeister – At one point Baumeister was getting 2nd round projection, which was too expensive for his shove score compared to other pitchers. But in MLB’s most-recent rankings he was in the 5th round. I’d be psyched to get him even in the 4th.

RHP Cade Denton – probably the second-best reliever in this draft behind Andrew Walters; I just have moved away from drafting relievers in the top 10 rounds as a philosophy, and Denton might cost a 6th.

3B Daniel Cuvet – Huge HS power bat that was simply redundant after drafting Bitonti and Rosario. But call him first alternate.

RHP Gavin Adams – Interesting JUCO arm that probably ends up in the bullpen. Some control issues, but fastball touching 99mph. I’d be interested on day three.

3B Nick Lorusso – This is a deep crop of 3B, but Lorusso’s 26 HR, 105 RBI season has to keep him on the shortlist if the price is right.

2B Quinn McDaniel – Probably the most power amongst 2B players. Did very well on rake metric.

Mariner June Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re back with a slightly updated mock for this year’s Mariners’ draft. Got some new guys that I’ve had a chance to watch. Got some guys I’m valuing higher than I was in May. Got some strategic alterations with signing bonuses.

There generally isn’t a big “rumor mill” for MLB drafts, and what interviews that ARE given by Dipoto/Hollander/Hunter probably won’t come out until a week or two before the draft (July 9-11), so we’re still a bit early for anything like that. The little bit of intel I have found suggests Seattle going after high school bats. Now, is that ACTUAL intel or just recency bias because they’ve drafted a high school bat in the 1st round in the last two drafts?? Don’t know. But with, essentially, three first round picks; there will likely be a mix of bat/arm and HS/college.

The term “upside” will probably be bandied about too much. What I think might be more relevant is trying to find “fast-movers”…especially for bats. Truly elite college players will move extremely fast to the show. The Angels, for example, have been really aggressive with some of their 2022 college players, with 1st round shortstop Zach Neto and 3rd RHP Ben Joyce already debuting this year after less than a full year in the minors, respectively. Both were 22 years old at time of debut.

But some of those very special high school players will move almost as fast. Think of Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, and more recently Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. Both of the latter two joined the organization as teenagers, and debuted in MLB at 21 years old.

This Mariner front office has seemed to have more success with two parts of amateur scouting: 1) College pitchers (Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Penn Murfee), and 2) prep bats (Julio, Jarred, Harry Ford, Cole Young, Noelvi Marte). I depicted in my previous mock the numerous failings of this regime in drafting HS pitching, but there have also been some unfortunate results in high-end college bats (Kyle Lewis, Evan White).

For what it’s worth, I don’t love this early round group of pitchers very much. There are quite a few college arms with injuries (either fresh or at the back end of recovery) that make me want to push them down the board. The prep pitchers also aren’t particularly strong this year, and they are notoriously the most bust-worthy group. I like some of the prep bats that seem to be projecting in the 20-45 range this year quite a lot. And there are some interesting college bats in there as well.

#1.22 – SS, Gulliver Prep, George Lombard Jr

There are MANY prep shortstops in this area of the draft. Lombard has emerged as my favorite. In some draft lists he’s projected a little lower…maybe closer to one of Seattle’s next two picks…but if he’s still available at #22 I’m just gonna take him with the earliest pick.

The other shortstop I’m keeping my eye on for this pick is Walker Martin. Martin is more often off the board in the #19-21 range in most mock drafts I look at, but occasionally I’ll see him randomly in the 40’s. If you can pull one of those guys, and maybe both if you’re really lucky, that’s how I’d try to start this draft.

Lombard has tremendous traits across the board plus MLB bloodlines. He’s committed to Vanderbilt, but slot bonus for #22 overall is just a hair under $3.5million. It is very rare that a player turns down that high of a bonus. It looks to me like he can stick at short, but I’m totally okay if he ends up at CF.

#1.29 – 3B, Aquinas HS, Eric Bitonti

In 2022, the M’s spent $3.3mill, $1.28mill, $1.25mill, $1.10mill on their first four picks, but due to the layout of that draft those four picks took them through the 4th round and the 3rd and 4th picks were overslot deals. The makeup of those four picks went: three high school, one college, two bats, two arms.

This year, the M’s could go $3.50mill, $2.80mill, $2.73mill, $1.44mill on their first four picks and they’d be right at slot value for all of them. Plus, they’d only be done with the 2nd round. So it’s gonna be pretty easy for them to sign high school players away from their college commitments with any/all of these four picks. Personally, I don’t think they really need to play a lot of bonus-pool gymnastics. Just play it straight up and draft best player available. I think you could start to massage signing bonuses in the 3rd round where an additional $269k saved in other rounds can get you a 5th player signed for over a $1mill bonus.

In 2022, the M’s second pick wasn’t until #58 overall when they drafted college hitter Tyler Locklear. This year their fourth pick is at #57 overall. So there is some potential we seem them go HS, HS, HS, COL if their idea of “upside” is synonymous with youth.

Eric Bitonti is one of the youngest players eligible for this draft. He is 17 years old and won’t be 18 until November. And he’s already 6’4″/218lbs. He has a college commitment to Oregon, but there’s about 2.8million reasons why you may be able to get him to come a little further north. This kid looks like he’s gonna be a monster.

#1.30 – RHP, Florida State, Jackson Baumeister

Jackson Baumeister is similar to Bitonti in that he’s extremely young for his classification. Two years ago Jackson was draft eligible as a high school senior and was old for his group, having turned 19 on July 10th, 2021. College players at four-year schools need to have played three years to be eligible, ORRRR they can be 21 years old within X number of days after that year’s draft. Jackson will turn 21 on day two of this year’s draft.

Now, the downside to this is that he still has two more years of eligibility remaining, and could decline to sign. I tend to think if picked in a quote-unquote first round slot, with the accompanying bonus, that he will sign.

Baumeister is listed 6’4″/226lbs and features an explosive 97mph fastball, and a swing-miss curve. As a former high school catcher; Jackson is still developing as a pitcher. I think he’s a unicorn as a college pitcher with true upside.

#2.57 – RHP, Wake Forest, Seth Keener

Seth Keener might be the player in this mock that least resembles what Seattle is currently looking for. This is more a pick I would make. He’s 6’2″/195lbs and doesn’t rock super high-end “stuff”. He’s more of a pitchability profile.

The fastball is mostly a straight 93mph offering, but the slider seems plus, and there’s a change-up in the toolbox as third offering. Personally, I just like this profile to develop. Guys add velo with relative ease more often now than ever. If a guy has a really good feel for an off-speed pitch; I like the chances.

#3.92 – SS, Florida, Josh Rivera

In a continuation of a hitting metric I started developing last year (that has shown good early results): I ran the same algorithm this year and it really liked Josh Rivera. He’s just a really well-balanced player. As a Senior there is some potential that you could sign him for somewhere underslot. This pick is slotted at $736,400 and I’d be happy to sign Josh for $500k and the $236k savings.

#4.124 – LHP, Virginia, Connelly Early

For all the pitching shortcomings this draft class has on day one, I kinda like the depth on day two. Especially the lefties. I think there are LHP you could pull from college, JUCO, high school between this pick and roughly the 12th round.

I was tempted to take HS lefty Wil Libbert here. 1) This is appropriate range to pick him. 2) He has college commitment to Mizzou and that school very recently fired the head coach that recruited Wil…which may increase odds/lower price to sign him away. 3) The guy has fascinating ability to miss bats without much that resembles any kind of plus pitch. I can only speculate there is a deception in his motion that makes him really hard to read.

I was tempted to take Stanford LHP Quinn Mathews and his 95mph fastball here, but I kinda wasn’t in love with his makeup. I was tempted to take a small-school LHP here like Mitch Farris or the JUCO kid Carson Dorsey as underslot targets, but this is historically earlier than Seattle will go underslot.

I finally decided to go with Connelly Early as a bit of antithesis to Mathews. Early’s stuff might be a notch less than Mathews today, but I just liked Connelly’s makeup better. I liked how Early seemed to rise to the occasion in UVA’s super regional. And as a former player for West Point; you can bet the guy has an impressive work ethic.

#5.160 – 2B, N Kentucky, Noah Fisher

After playing most of this mock straight up; the 5th round is where I’ll project Seattle really starts getting creative. In 2022 the M’s went $333k underslot to sign 5th rounder Reid VanScoter for $20k. In 2021 they went $354k underslot to sign 5th rounder Andy Thomas for $25k. In 2018 they went $50k underslot for 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman.

Noah Fisher is a 5th-year senior for Northern Kentucky already at 23 years old. So he fits the bill of a guy that is going to NEED to sign, and then his on-field performance where he hit .343/.502/1.218 with 19 HR in 54 games means there is still some potential for him to make it in the league.

Slot here is $374k…I’m not a fan of some of these really small bonuses…you should give every player a minimum of $125k, which I believe is the max (before penalties) for guys drafted rounds 11-20. So you could still bank $249k here to spend later.

#6.187 – RHP, Charlotte, Wyatt Hudepohl

Wyatt Hudepohl was a guy that was pitching in relief for an SEC school for a couple years 2020-2021, and then decided to transfer down a level to Charlotte for a chance to start. The results were a little bit mixed. He had a very respectable 1.149 WHIP with 11.0 SO/9, but he also allowed 15 HR in 17 starts which ballooned his ERA a bit to 4.27.

Like a couple of the previous arms in this mock; this pick is a bit of a hope that you can unlock a bit more in his stuff. The curveball is already a weapon, but the fastball running only about 93mph currently might be an issue.

As a true-Junior; you probably give him full-slot. Or really just round it up to an even $300k.

#7.217 – RF, P27 Academy, Alfonsin Rosario

Alfonsin Rosario is a 6’2″/215lb, 19 year old native to the Dominican Republic who is eligible for the Rule 4 Draft after living in the U.S. for some time now. He boasts top end exit velocity and outfield arm strength. His college commitment is to Chipola, a junior college in Florida, which suggests to me he may be more interested in signing with an MLB team than actually going to school. And knowing that…he may sign for straight slot value. I’ll round him up to $250k.

#8.247 – 3B, Maryland, Nick Lorusso

Nick Lorusso might be a personal favorite of mine. There were other 3B that scored higher in my study that Seattle might have a shot at. There were maybe a couple that played better defense at the hot corner. But I just kept coming back to Lorusso for his overall toolset and makeup. Look at him take top-10 overall pitcher Rhett Lowder yard…twice.

#9.277 – LHP, Dunedin HS, Trey Beard

In 2022 the M’s drafted a high school pitcher in the 9th round (Tyler Gough) and signed him for a little more than $100k overslot. As things stand in this mock; Seattle would have close to $450k of surplus available. I will try to point an additional $325k at Beard to bump him up to $500k and get him away from his commitment to Florida Atlantic University.

Beard has a great frame at 6’3″/180lbs. Present fastball is only 90mph, but there’s something about his repertoire tunneling that I really like.

#10.307 – C, South Dakota State, Ryan McDonald

The 10th round is another spot Seattle has historically looked to go underslot, senior-sign types. Ryan McDonald is a 5’11″/195lb backstop that just turned 23 last month that should be available for underslot as long as you get him before anyone else. In my analytic study of hitters; McDonald emerged as the #1 catcher (more on that later). I also like that he scored well on minimizing base-stealers.

#11.337 – C, Stanford, Alberto Rios

Starting in the 11th round, all picks have a max bonus of $125k or the overage counts towards the bonus pool from the top-10 rounds. Seattle has often gone over-slot in the 11th. This pick reminds me a bit of the 2019 draft when the M’s drafted Fresno State catcher Carter Bins in the 11th and signed him for $350k.

Alberto Rios is listed on Stanford’s website as a catcher, but I can’t find record of him playing there much this year. He’s been primarily in left field. I’m not sure why he hasn’t been catching, but he’d be more valuable to me if he can still catch. Either way, I’m drafting him for the bat.

#12.367 – RHP, Bryant, Coleman Picard

In 2017, Seattle drafted RHP Darren McCaughan out of Long Beach State in the 12th round. It wasn’t a high upside pick, but cut to 2021 and McCaughan earned his first promotion to the Majors. That’s a pretty successful use of a 12th round pick. Coleman Picard strikes me as a very similar profile with maybe a slightly higher upside.

Picard is 6’2″/185lbs and worked to a 2023 line of 1.167 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 4.92 SO/BB.

13.397 – 3B, Fairfield, Charlie Pagliarini

Charlie Pagliarini actually has one of the more impressive 2023 statlines of all players: 24 HR, 97 RBI, 14×15 in SB, .399/.528/1.379. But it’s a bit of a one-year wonder. In no other season he played for Fairfield or any of his Summer League appearances has he hit over .270. But a 13th round pick isn’t much of a risk for the upside of potential lefthanded power.

14.427 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece

Ryley Preece is a switch-hitting outfielder that posted a 20-20 season this year in 56 games for Morehead. Exact marks: 21 HR, 21 SB, .335/.454/1.192.

15.457 – RHP, Oral Roberts, Cade Denton

Seattle has a pretty severe line drawn in their drafting history and it’s the 2020/Covid season. They had one draft philosophy pre-Covid, and they’ve made some changes post-Covid. One of the changes was pre-Covid they would frequently draft relief pitchers with top-10 round picks. But in the two most-recent drafts Seattle has drafted ZERO relievers top 10 rounds. Then, on day three of the draft, they will go pretty reliever-crazy rounds 11-20.

Cade Denton is a pretty high-profile reliever as he’s tied for the national D1 lead in saves with 15. He’s also a junior. So this pick at this range might be nonsense. I also really like Wake Forest setup-man Cole Roland. The media isn’t high on either of these guys, but I’m assuming the league is more aware. If both of those guys are off the board, or unsignable, I’d pivot to Jacksonville closer Chris Lotito.

16.487 – LHP, Clemson, Ryan Ammons

It is very tough to find lefty relievers without scouring hundreds of team rosters first for LHP, then for LHRP, then LHRP that are any good. I spotted Ryan Ammons sometime back and I’m kinda forcing him here even though he didn’t have the best season: 4.05 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9, 3.25 SO/BB, 5 saves. I mean, they’re not terrible numbers, but they seemed down from his 2022 performance.

17.517 – RHP, Milwaukee, Nate DeYoung

This pick is a bit of a shot in the dark as I wasn’t able to find any video of Nate DeYoung pitching. I found a bit of video of him hitting, as he’s been playing both ways. Further, it seems he might be new to pitching as he’s a fifth-year senior (all at Milwaukee), with five years of stats as a hitter but only pitching stats in the most recent three years. And in 2023 he made a huge step forward on the mound: 14 appearances, 15.1 IP, 9 saves, 0.913 WHIP, 16.4 SO/9, 4.00 SO/BB.

That’s a hell of a line. It reminds me a little, serendipitously, of Ty Adcock. As I’m writing this, we’re about an hour past the announcement of Adcock getting the big callup from AA. Adcock was drafted in the 8th round of the 2019 draft after playing two ways for Elon University (*George Kirby teammate) as a catcher and reliever. DeYoung has been playing both corner infield spots, and then some pitching.

This is where I’m going to cut the mock off for now. I will try to get another one up in the next three weeks before the draft that will go all 20 rounds. But there is one more thing I promised to address.

Last year I came up with this hitting metric that felt like an interesting way to profile batters in the modern game. One of the biggest hits from that study (if not THEE biggest scorer…I don’t remember exactly) was Tyler Locklear. Then Seattle drafted him in the 2nd round. Then Tyler started 2023 hitting .311/.419/.992 with 11 HR in 48 games in Everett before a HBP broke his hand and put him on the IL. These were top 5 marks of all hitters from the 2022 draft. That’s pretty intriguing. So I ran the college players from the 2023 class through the same algorithm.

So I have a master list of all these hitters ranked, but I also have sub-lists filtered by defensive position. I wanted to highlight some of the top “testers” at each position because, though I may have gone high school player or pitcher at ranges these guys are projected, if Seattle drafts any of them…pin it, cause I will still like the pick. I’m not going to focus on high-scorers that have, like, top-15 overall projection.

The #1 overall player in this study was 1B Nolan Schanuel. He scored higher than consensus top 2 pick Dylan Crews. And Schanuel gets frequent projection between #22-#30 where Seattle will have three shots at him.

Wake Forest slugger Brock Wilken was top 3 overall, and obviously the top scorer at 3B. He may be available at #30.

Maine RHB Quinn McDaniel took top mark for 2B. He gets roughly 6th round projection.

Davidson catcher Michael Carico had one of the best offensive statlines in the country last year, and though he was hurt for part(s) of 2023; he was still top 10 overall in my study for 2023. He’s probably not getting out of the 3rd round.

With three OF spots on defense; I get to highlight three OF hitters. In order: Cam Fisher, Chase Davis, Colton Ledbetter. Coincidentally, they all hit lefty. The latter two probably don’t get out of the 2nd round. Fisher is currently more like 5th round.

Lastly, I didn’t love Maryland SS Matt Shaw on tape, but this study felt he would easily be worth a top-20 pick. And TCU 3B Brayden Taylor is projected almost perfectly at #22 overall. If Seattle drafts either at #22…probably a good pick.

Mariners Mock Draft

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

It’s a good time to be a Seattle sports fan. The Kraken had an incredible postseason in their second ever season. The Seahawks made the playoffs in their rebuild season, and followed that up with a draft that included four picks in the top 52 overall. And the Mariners broke the longest playoff drought in sports, and now it’s their turn to draft four times in the top 57 overall. Oh…and this year’s MLB All Star Game and amateur draft will take place IN Seattle this Summer.

How did the Mariners get to this point of, essentially, drafting three times in the first round? The #1.22 pick is the pick they earned from their 2022 season performance. The #1.29 pick they earned from a new MLB rule that awards a pick for a team opening the season with a top ranked rookie who goes on to win the rookie of the year (in this case Julio Rodriguez) called the Prospect Promotion Incentive pick. And the #1.30 pick is part of the annual competitive balance picks.

Now, looking at the 2023 draft player pool, and more specifically the college pool…it feels like college baseball is doing something to juice the baseballs they are playing with. Some of these offensive performances are out of control, and the pitching crop is putting up worse numbers than I can remember in the last, say, ten years. The NCAA has multiple guys pushing 30 homer seasons after 52-53 games. They’ve got a guy that is on the verge of a 100 RBI season. They have 28 unique batters that currently hold over a .400 average. So it’s tougher this year to evaluate college players on either side.

But, the Mariners changed their amateur scouting process two years ago, which includes being more open to drafting high school players than they were in their first handful of drafts. So the change in the college ball may not affect Seattle as much as it may some other teams. There’s also the recency bias where Seattle will ride the big league success of a guy like Bryce Miller, who was not a great college pitcher, and draft guys more like his profile, rather than the profile of a guy like George Kirby from a few drafts earlier.

In my personal opinion; Seattle needs to find a way to hold drafts that are more balanced. For whatever reason, they have drafts that are heavy in college players, drafts that are heavy in high school players, classes that they draft pitching well but not bats, and classes that they draft hitting well but not pitching. It doesn’t make sense. In the early years of the Dipoto regime they went very strong on college pitching and we’re seeing those results now with 3/5th’s of the MLB rotation encompassing in-house draftpicks. But there’s only one significant contributor on the big club that was our own draftee: Cal Raleigh.

Then you have the last two drafts where Seattle went high school bats with their first picks, and both of those seem to be coming along nicely in Harry Ford and Cole Young. 2022 was especially strong for the bats in general. Cole Young .279/.432/.867, Tyler Locklear .298/.396/.925, Josh Hood .279/.331/.772, Hogan Windish 6 HR, .218/.340/.853, Bill Knight .343/.405/.928.

Meanwhile…you probably can’t name a single high school pitcher that has been a “hit” for us.
2017 Sam Carlson, 2nd round, 10.45 ERA in A+.
2018 Damon Stubbs, 11th round, traded, 5.40 ERA in Independent ball.
2018 Holden Laws, 16th round, 10.03 ERA in low A.
2019 Mikey Limoncelli, 6th round, 60 day IL, hasn’t pitched since 2021.
2019 Adam Macko, 7th round, traded, 6.11 ERA repeating A+ level.
2019 Anthony Tomczak, 15th round, 4.63 ERA, 1.800 WHIP in low A.
2019 Tyler Driver, 18th round, 10.97 ERA, 2.250 WHIP in A+.
2020 Connor Phillips, 2nd round, traded, 4.02 ERA, 1.500 WHIP in AA.
2021 Michael Morales, 3rd round, 2.22 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 in low A.
2022 Walter Ford, 2nd round, has not pitched professionally yet.
2022 Ashton Izzi, 4th round, has not pitched professionally yet.
2022 Tyler Gough, 9th round, 9.00 ERA, 2.000 WHIP in low A.

From a bonus pool standpoint, as you might expect with three of the top 30 overall picks; Seattle has one of the bigger bonus pools in the league this year (7th biggest, I think). Dipoto has talked about this allowing them to get “creative” with their picks. But looking at last year’s draft…I kinda think it doesn’t really do anything for you outside of being on the board those three times early.

In 2022, every player drafted in the first two rounds signed (top 80 overall). Everyone in the top 59 overall got over $1million in bonus money, and it’s really the top 68 because one guy got $2,500 shy of a mill at #60. The low mark for a 1st round pick bonus was $1.7mill.

For the M’s specifically…they signed high schooler Cole Young for a rounded $3,300,000 which was just over his slot value of $3,292,900. College bat Tyler Locklear got exactly slot value in the 2nd round at $1,276,500. And then came Seattle getting “creative”. Walter Ford was a high school 2nd round comp pick with slot value of $887,400 and Seattle signed him for $1,250,000. Seattle lost their 3rd rounder for signing the qualifying offer Robbie Ray. Then they took high schooler Ashton Izzi in the 4th round…slot value $474,900 and they signed him for $1,100,00. The savings came mostly from underslotting their 5th round pick $333,900, and then underslotting picks in rounds 7, 8, 10 about $100k each. I’m not a huge fan of doing business this way as I feel like, even though the baseball draft has a VERY different format with different rules, you still should be trying to draft best player available.

Fortunately, with the draft capital Seattle has this year, they don’t need to tinker too much with bonus stuff. Their top four picks have slots worth: $3.5mill, $2.8mill, $2.7mill, $1.4mill. These values are probably strong enough to sign just about anybody away from going (or staying) in college. Occasionally you get a kid that really, really wants to go to college like Jack Leiter a few years ago. But those guys are generally transparent with their intentions, and teams will pass on them until the late rounds (Leiter drafted in 20th round in 2019 out of HS).

So, to me, the creativity in this draft is mostly just an ability to draft/sign more high school players. If you wanted to do it…if you found $466,800 in underslot savings at some point in the top ten rounds…you could sign three players at over $3mill bonus each. Technically, it’d be closer to one $3.5mill and two at $3mill each. If you found $283,700 in underslot savings, you could get a player at each of $3.5mill, $3mill, $2.75mill, $1.5mill. $263,600 in slot savings will get you up to five unique players signed at over $1mill bonus. As I said before…these big, round numbers over $1mill will get you MOST players signed.

But, I feel like you really don’t want to mess with anything going underslot until the 5th round. If you go underslot significantly in the 5th round, you instantly have $350,000 in savings, then maybe you do another underslot deal in the 7th to get you up to about $550,000 in surplus. That gives you a decent amount of flexibility so that you can sell players the prestige of getting “overslot”…which is really what this is about.

#1.22 – SS, Gulliver Prep HS, George Lombard Jr

Before talking about the pick, I just want to address a college bat. Using the same metric model I used in 2022 that identified Tyler Locklear; I came up with Nolan Schanuel as 2023’s top value college bat. Through 52 games; Schanuel is hitting .454/.614/1.504 with 18 HR, 61 RBI, 59 BB to 14 SO, and he’s 14×14 in SB. He’s got more HBP than he does strikeouts. That’s insane. He’s listed 6’4″/210lbs, bats left, throws right.

If there’s a downside to him; it might be that his swing path tends to be long because of his extreme hands-raised starting position. Also, though he’s played some outfield, he’s predominantly a first baseman. If the bat holds, you get lefty Paul Goldschmidt (college stats 2009: .352/.487/1.172, 18 HR, 54 BB, 29 SO), and that’s fine. Ty France has 2 years of arbitration years remaining with his UFA hitting in 2026. With Evan White’s constant injuries; there’s really no one coming through the farm in the next 2 years at first. Locklear has already been moved off of 3B to 1B, but he’s only in A+ ball. Plus, you have a DH slot that’s basically never fully occupied.

Okay, to the actual pick:

Seattle has done decently well in their last two drafts with their prep bat picks, so I’m giving them another one with the first of their three 1st round picks. Lombard is listed 6’3″/190lbs, currently plays shortstop, has MLB bloodlines, and is one of the younger players in this draft as he won’t be 18 until June 2nd. Biggest negative per the reports seems to be a question of his arm strength. But the athleticism is nice. He could easily handle an outfield spot…probably center…but I like his fielding actions on the infield too much to give up on him there for the immediate future.

The downside on Lombard might simply be his college commitment to Vanderbilt. We’ve seen Vandy be pretty strong on holding on to their commitments over the last few years. Or he may be off the board before this slot. We’ve seen MLB legacy players drafted early last year (1.1 Jackson Holliday, 1.2 Druw Jones, 1.17 Justin Crawford).

#1.29 – SS/3B, Aquinas HS, Eric Bitonti

Bitonti is already listed at 6’4″/205lbs and won’t be 18 until November. There’s already presumption that he’ll move off of short, and probably ends up at 3rd, but as is the case with most picks…future defensive position is secondary to the bat itself. I love the swing with this kid.

#1.30 – RHP, Florida, Brandon Sproat

Whether I like it or not…this may not be a good year to follow the projection model that was working in 2018-ish draft. You definitely don’t want to try the 2022 Mariner model. But maybe you can find a happy medium with the 2021 model that yielded Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. To that end, I suggest Florida righty Brandon Sproat. In 2023 for Florida, Sproat has a 4.44 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 11.5 SO/9, and 4.1 BB/9. In 2021, Miller was also an SEC pitcher with a 4.45 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.1 SO/9, 5.9 BB/9. So you can see some similarity between the two.

Sproat is a bit bigger guy at 6’3″/210lbs, and obviously the mechanics are pretty different. Actually, Sproat’s delivery reminds me more of Luis Castillo. Brandon’s present fastball is already touching 100mph and sits pretty comfortably at 98mph, and he’s got a four-pitch mix with the change looking especially promising this year. He’s been drafted twice already without signing, and so there may be a way to get him underslot if you really wanted to.

#2.57 – RHP, Florida State, Jackson Baumeister

The breakdown on Baumeister will read very similarly to Sproat’s, so I’m not going to repeat it all. The fastball is up to 97mph, but generally more 95mph, but the late life on it is pretty sick. His primary secondary is currently a big curve, but as a former high school catcher who has really only been focusing in pitching the last two years…I think the M’s pitching analytics team might try to work on most of his secondary offerings to find something else that tunnels better with his fastball.

Much like you can find draft-eligible 17 year olds coming out of the high school ranks; you can find a handful of college players that are eligible this year at the age of 20. Baumeister is one of those until he turns 21 in July. And that may have some appeal as “upside”. That also goes hand in hand with him having multiple years of college eligibility remaining, which means you may need to go overslot by a decent amount.

3.92 – SS, Florida, Josh Rivera

I really didn’t intend to spend so much time in the state of Florida, but that’s literally where most of these first five picks come from in terms of current school ties. Even Lombard is from a Florida high school. But whatever. Logan Gilbert’s from Florida. Cal Raleigh’s from Florida. Walter Ford’s from Florida. We’ve had decent luck pulling from there.

Rivera is another guy that showed well in my projection model. He was actually the best out of the shortstop position. He’s listed 6’1″/215lbs and that’s the exact same size as the guy he kinda reminded me of…former Mariner and three-time All-Star, Carlos Guillen. Carlos was a switch-hitter and Josh is righty only, but otherwise remind me a lot of one another.

Rivera this year is hitting .370/.467/1.113 with 14 HR, 13 SB and is playing some improved defense at short. Guillen finished his career as a .285/.355/.798 lifetime guy, which you’d take all day from a 3rd rounder. Also worth stating now, after drafting two SS in the first five picks…after the last year-plus of amateur scouting the draft and international free agency, with the additions of Cole Young and Felnin Celesten…it’s not going to be any kind of big deal if Lombard, Bitonti, and/or Rivera get moved off of shortstop. Those options are built in to this mock.

Lastly, Rivera is another guy that could be negotiated off full slot as a college Senior. The slot is $736,400, but that could also be reason to draft another high school player and go overslot up to $1mill.

#4.124 – RHP, Wake Forest, Seth Keener

Seth Keener is a 6’1″/195lb righty sporting a 1.40 ERA, 0.818 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9, 4.33 SO/BB while kinda hidden by a pretty special Wake Forest weekend rotation of Rhett Lowder, Josh Hartle, Sean Sullivan. Keener has appeared in 18 games with 4 starts. He would be the safe play here, but it’s also the pick the Mariners seem more removed from making. Keener is neither an “upside” play that you’d overslot, nor is he a senior that you’d underslot. He’s kind of a high floor guy, but might be the least likely Mariner choice in this mock.

Really, this pick might more realistically be a high school player that has “dropped” and who you’ll need to create bonus pool for. Maybe a pitcher like Ashton Izzi last year. We won’t really know who that guy is until the day of. Maybe like a RHP Landen Maroudis, or Bishop Letson, or a LHP Alex Clemmey…all with high spin rate fastballs.

#5.160 – LHP, Stanford, Quinn Mathews

Every year I try to create balanced mock drafts. Balanced pitcher to hitter. Balanced lefty to righty. In my quest to find the best value LHP I looked at MANY names, and came away most interested in Quinn Mathews at roughly this round.

Quinn is listed 6’4″/192lbs presently topping out on the fastball at 95mph, and posting a 3.08 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 11.2 SO/9, and 2.8 BB/9. Mathews would technically qualify for a “senior signing”, which often means you can go underslot, but I think he’s worth the full slot. In fact, he might be gone before this.

He’s got that sort of classic lefty arm slot that lends itself so well to a fastball, slider, curve mix

#6.187 – OF, Troy, Shane Lewis

Lewis is one of the more interesting back-stories in this draft. After committing to, and then redshirting for, Mississippi State in 2020; Lewis transferred once to Chipola College last year, and then this year to Troy University where he’s proceeded to hit 26 homeruns in 53 games.

Listed 6’2″/190lbs, Lewis is a switch hitter with an overall slash of .310/.461/1.243 who’s probably longterm projected for a corner outfield spot.

#7.217 – RHP, Dallas Baptist, Kyle Amendt

Something that often comes into play in the later rounds of day 2 of the MLB draft (rounds 3-10) is the attempt to draft players you can get for well under “slot” (with that surplus sort of retroactively being used to go over slot on earlier picks). These are predominantly college seniors who have run out of eligibility and are basically screwed by the process.

Kyle Amendt is a 23 year old closer for DBU that kinda reminds me of Tom Wilhelmsen. He’s 6’5″/237 while the Bartender was 6’6″/220. Both feature good fastballs (Amendt’s presently about 94mph), and a big 12-6 curveball.

#8.247 – RHP, Charlotte, Wyatt Hudepohl

After a couple years of pitching in relief for Kentucky; Hudepohl transferred to UNC Charlotte where he’s spent this year as a starter posting a 4.08 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 11.0 SO/9, and 2.2 BB/9. He’s 6’4″/220lbs with some of the pitch breakdown in the tweet caption.

#9.277 – 3B, Maryland, Nick Lorusso

It may seem like I’m just cherry-picking the country’s leader in homeruns, then the leader in RBI, then…but that’s not exactly how I’m getting to these players. My model looks for a certain profile, and then I cross reference by defensive position to find the best OF, best SS, best 3B within my metric. So while Lorusso is the national leader in RBI (90 in 51 games…285 RBI in 162 game pace), he’s also simply the best 3B in my system.

Listed 6’2″/215lbs, Nick is also a senior-sign possibility as he played three years for Villanova before playing the last two for Maryland. In addition to the RBI total; Lorusso is also an XBH machine with 19 doubles, 1 triple, and 21 homeruns, and hitting .376/.449/1.205 on the year.

#10.307 – 2B, Maine, Quinn McDaniel

McDaniel represents a couple things here: 1) the top 2B in my model, 2) kind of the biggest splash of basestealing from this mock with 31 stolen in 36 attempts. And he’s an OBP monster hitting .348/.516/1.150 this year.

#11.337 – C, S Dakota State, Ryan McDonald

Normally I like to incorporate defensive numbers when I’m looking for catching prospects, but as of right now I’m not finding them published. Maybe they will come after the end of the college season. So since I’m missing a big chunk of the catcher study; I kinda pushed the position down my board. McDonald represents the best catcher value as a batter only in my current configuration.

#12.367 – SS/2B, Texas A&M, Hunter Haas

Haas is a 6’0″/180lb present shortstop that I kinda see moving to 2B. But he’s a very disciplined hitter with a .340/.455/.980 slash and 38 BB to 29 SO season line. Decent defender.

We’ll call it quits there for now. We’ll get up to 20 rounds before the actual draft.

Week-of mock draft

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re coming down to the wire. Draft “intel” is coming fast and furious. Filtering down to the intel that I believe feels credible, likely even, the top of the draft really starts looking like 1- Bryce Young to Carolina, 2 and 3 are the DE’s in some order and I’m leaning toward the Texas Tech Red Raider staying in Texas and Will Anderson getting scooped by Arizona, and 4 has felt like an obvious landing spot for Will Levis.

So then Seattle sits at #5 with a couple quarterbacks and the big redflag DT sitting on the board, but I think they really wanted one of the DE’s. So they trade back. I like the fit of trading with the Raiders. A) the Raiders are likely in the market for a QB and in this scenario they find themselves in reach of CJ Stroud, B) the Raiders have a ton of draft capital starting the draft with 12 picks, C) I like Seattle only dropping a couple spots to #7, and in exchange they get back #70 in the early 3rd round.

#1.7 – QB Hendon Hooker

For most of this draft cycle most in the media have been tagging Hendon as QB5 and a guy that will be there in the 2nd, maybe 3rd round. I’ve consistently found way to take him in the 1st after trading back the #20 pick. Recently I had a different draft of this mock where I was like, “screw it, I’m taking him at #20 straight up.” My thought today is: “I don’t like risking Hendon going through Atlanta, Tennessee, a Houston team that took a DE at #2, New England where Bill Belichick is a wildcard, Washington, and Tampa. And I DEFINITELY can’t let Minnesota get anywhere near him.”

I really just can’t come out of this draft missing on both Tyree Wilson and Hendon Hooker by overplaying my hand. Plus there were a couple media moments that came back to me. #1) Mike Tannenbaum putting Seattle on Hendon at #5 in his mock draft a few weeks ago. #2) John Schneider himself.

On one recent episode of his radio show on 710; John talked about the Seattle draft room not caring about the reaction and/or pleasing the fanbase with their drafting. That comment came in close proximity to Jalen Carter coming to town for an official visit, so my thought initially went to Pete and John not caring about the reaction of fans to drafting a guy with legal charges and the redflag stuff. But, really, the fanbase, I think, would more predominantly love a selection of Jalen Carter because of the media label on him of “the most talented player” in this class. What the fanbase might actually be more up in arms about is “reaching” on a player, especially in context of having the returning starter in Geno Smith under contract for 1-3 more years. THAT might bother people. So that was an interesting thought discovery.

#1.20 – DE Felix Anudike Uzomah

Seattle has done a ton of work on this DE class. The official visit list includes Will Anderson, Byron Young, Yaya Diaby, Nick Herbig, BJ Ojulari, and Will McDonald. The two biggest omissions from that list might be Nolan Smith and Felix. There is some buzz that Nolan will be drafted before this point, so he may not be an option. Felix was at the Combine as 6’3″/255lbs with 33 1/2″ arms. He did not test there, but at KState pro day he verticaled 34″ and broad jumped 10’04” with a 6.94s three-cone. Only six DE ran the three-cone at the Combine, but a 6.94 would have bested all of them. His profile is VERY similar to Maxx Crosby who was 6’5″/255lbs with 32 7/8″ arms, 36″ vert, 10’02” broad, and a 6.89s cone a few years ago.

#2.37 – RB Zach Charbonnet

I sort of hate to use an early pick like this on a RB when there is so much talent in the 2nd round at other spots, but Seattle will always tend to go more aggressive on RB’s, and really the roster is so thin at the spot right now that this shouldn’t surprise. Charbonnet is too much of all the things that I’m looking for in a back to compliment Ken Walker to pass on him.

#2.52 – TE Tucker Kraft

Seattle has been nowhere near this TE class even though it is commonly thought to be a very good group. They might be pretty satisfied with what they have in-house. Personally, I’m not okay with letting another draft go past where a Travis Kelce or George Kittle is sitting right there at a reasonable price and Seattle passes. Finding a quality TE at any draft price is worth double in future cap savings over a comparable WR.

Kraft is 6’5″/254lbs with a 4.69s forty. There are a good, solid eight TE this year that run sub-4.7 forties this year, and two more that were at exactly 4.70, so the depth is good to allow you to use some patience. But not too much. I like the value play on Kraft.

#3.70 – CB Darius Rush

I really like this range for a CB. You’ve probably missed on Julius Brents who seems to have the higher buzz, but I think you can be in range of Cory Trice or Rush. Trice rolls a bit bigger at 6’3″/205lbs, with a 4.47s forty and an 11’00” broad jump. Rush is 6’2″/198lbs with a 4.36s forty and only 10’01” broad. Both are plenty long. So it’s a bit of personal preference, and mine leads me to Rush.

#3.83 – DT Byron Young

Having passed on Jalen Carter, Seattle still needs to do some work on the DL. I’ve got 3 names that fall around this spot with similar profiles: Moro Ojomo, Kobie Turner, and the Alabama Byron Young. I kinda think Seattle won’t be interested in Turner due to his lesser athleticism. I, personally, find Ojomo a bit awkward with some wasted movement in his tape. So I’ve come around to Young.

Byron measured in at the Combine at 6’3″/294lbs with 34 3/8″ arms with 5.5 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 6 hurries. It’s not quite the monster profile Chris Jones had in 2016 when he came in at 6’6″/310lbs, 34 1/2″ arms but similar production from both.

#4.123 – OC Ricky Stromberg

This is a weird year for the center position and I’ve spent a lot of it trying to match talent and value. Then you have to position the center value vs the talent/value of other positions in the same range. After much consideration; I’ve decided to put preference on RB and TE in the 2nd and hunt for a center later down. And Stromberg is where that path led me.

Testing at the Combine as one of the top two centers; Stromberg went 6’3″/306lbs with 33 1/4″ arms and a 5.26s forty, 32.5″ vert, and 9’3″ broad. It’s a very close profile to a fellow Oklahoman Creed Humphrey who tested at 6’4″/302lbs, 5.11s, 33″ vert, 9’4″ broad. On tape Ricky is arguably the best center run-blocker in the class.

#5.151 – LB Yasir Abdullah

There’s sort of a subset of linebacker that popped up through Seattle’s 30 visits that run 230-240lbs and either know how to passrush or had documented success as a blitzer. Abdullah would fit that profile very well at 6’1″/237lbs with a 4.47s forty with 14.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and 7 hurries.

#5.154 – DS Jason Taylor II

There’s something fishy going on with Seattle and their safety situation. They’ve got Diggs. They’ve got Adams supposedly coming back. They signed Love. Pete Carroll says they’re going to play three safeties. Okay…maybe. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if they did something else after the draft that relates to the safety group and the salary cap. At minimum they need to draft someone to replace Ryan Neal. To that end…Jason Taylor. He can play centerfield. He can play in the box. And he most definitely will be a stud on special teams.

#6.198 – DT Dante Stills

I had some thought to mock a nose tackle at this spot. Seattle certainly did diligence on a few NT’s through their 30 visits. But I think maybe they make that a rookie free agent priority, and instead look to get another DT that can create pressure in the backfield. Dante measured 6’4″/286lbs and ran the third-fastest forty time for a DT at 4.85s. He’s a good kid with NFL bloodlines.

#7.237 – DS Jerrick Reed II

Whereas the Jason Taylor pick may be to hedge a cap casualty move; I think Jerrick is a guy I’m drafting just to hedge safety depth for injury. He was a 30 visit guy and his profile reminds me a bit of Jeremy Reaves from a few years ago. Just a well rounded player with great intangibles.

He’s not the biggest of players at 5’10″/196lbs, but neither is Quandre. Reed posted 4.46s speed with a 38″ vertical. Really strong fundamentals.

Final, final haul:

#1.7 – QB Hendon Hooker
#1.20 – DE Felix Anudike Uzomah
#2.37 – RB Zach Charbonnet
#2.52 – TE Tucker Kraft
#3.70 – CB Darius Rush
#3.83 – DT Byron Young
#4.123 – OC Ricky Stromberg
#5.151 – LB Yasir Abdullah
#5.154 – DS Jason Taylor II
#6.198 – DT Dante Stills
#7.237 – DS Jerrick Reed II

See you Thursday.

Pre-Combine mock draft

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

This is basically just a datestamp to document where players are being valued before they test athletically at next week’s NFL Combine.

We’ll start with the pre-existing condition: it is pretty rare for top 10 picks, especially top 5, to be traded in recent years. Teams have learned not to overpay to move up and instead just force teams ahead to make their picks. I could see Seattle WANTING to trade down, but just not getting the partner or value that they’d like. We’ll stick with them moving off of the #20 overall. The Chiefs have 12 picks…half in the 6th-7th…but they’re coming off a Super Bowl win with a very good roster, so maybe they’d be interested in moving #31 + #63 for #20.

#1.5 – DE, Tyree Wilson

He’s got the frame, he’s got the production, we probably don’t get his athletic testing this week still coming off his foot injury, but we did learn recently that he can run around 4.55-4.59 in the forty at 275lbs. I have Tyree as a potential Jason Pierre Paul type player. Same build at around 6’5″/275lbs…JPP ran a 4.78 forty in his draft year, so a 4.58 from Tyree would be impressive.

#1.31 – QB, Hendon Hooker

There’s no doubt in my mind right now that Seattle brings back Geno Smith, but I still think there’s a ton of opportunity in a draft with two 1st round picks to make a move for the future and stash some value. There are basically three reasons people don’t value Hendon correctly: 1) age, 2) injury, 3) college scheme. (Occasionally I will also see someone question his armstrength, but that’s just lazy.)

Per the PFF research…longest college in-game air-yards throw:

*Justin Herbert 67 yards
Hendon Hooker 66 yards
Anthony Richardson 64 yards
Will Levis 62 yards
Bryce Young 59 yards
CJ Stroud 58 yards

As for the age factor…you either believe that’s relevant or you don’t. Will Levis will be 23 and 10 months by the draft. Joe Burrow was 23 and 4 months when he was drafted. The other option for Seahawks’ QB is a second year starter at 32 years old. There’s still value to be found in an older QB if he’s a GOOD player.

The injury factor is mostly relevant for teams that have a shortage of draftpicks and/or an immediacy need for a QB in 2023. Neither apply to Seattle…assuming Geno returns.

College scheme…I think this is consistently a dumb conversation. Patrick Mahomes fell to #10 overall primarily due to the college scheme question. Dak Prescott was downgraded for coming from a Dan Mullen scheme. Coming from a college spread scheme isn’t prohibitive any more than coming from a college team with a pro system is a de facto benefit. Listen to your QB prospects. Learn their heads and their hearts.

#2.37 – DL, Tuli Tuipulotu

In most drafts you can kind of get a feel for some positional profiles a team is targeting. Certainly you can spot the positions a draft class is strong in. For 2023, there is a nice little pocket of DL that go roughly 6’4″/290lbs that have inside/outside versatility. Keion White is recently the one with the most heat, so I’m backing off of him. Some people like Adetomiwa Adebawore at 6’2″/280lbs. Karl Brooks played mostly DE at 6’4″/300lbs. Mike Morris is a pretty quiet name out of Michigan, but he had decent production at 6’6″/292lbs. Also Colby Wooden from Auburn at 6’5″/284lbs, Tyler Lacy from Oklahoma State 6’4″/285lbs, Byron Young from Alabama 6’3″/292lbs, Kobie Turner from Wake at 6’3″/290lbs, and Dante Stills from WVU at 6’4″/285lbs.

I’m not sure why the community isn’t higher on Tuli. He’s a young player with huge production (22.0 TFL, 13.5 sacks), that plays faster than his listed size of 6’4″/290lbs. My only thought is that the world is kinda low on the entire Pac12 right now.

#2.52 – TE, Tucker Kraft

Tightend will be the big test of whether Seattle is drafting BPA again this year. They probably don’t need a TE, but they should be looking at this class of TE and deciding to take one anyway because of the class quality.

I like the mix of skillset and value on Kraft.

#2.63 – OL, Steve Avila

Whether you realize it or not; the interior of the OL is probably a draft priority for the Seahawks. Basically the first re-sign of the offseason was OG Phil Haynes and in his 710 show right after the signing John Schneider talked about the weakness of the vet free agent market for guards.

My road to Avila started with watching him live in the college playoffs where he was facing some pretty legit DL in Michigan and Georgia rosters. Then, he was easily one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl. Then, I dug in and found that he had played Center for a year in 2021. I think this guy has a really interesting profile, and I don’t think you leave the 2nd round without addressing OL in some capacity.

#3.83 – CB, Darius Rush

I like this CB class a lot, but I think you can incorporate some gamesmanship to wait a bit longer down the draft to pick one than you can at other positions. I’ve previously drafted Rush in, I think, the 5th or 6th round. That price went up after his performance at the Senior Bowl. It might go up again after the Combine, but I think I’m okay to target him here.

#4.123 – LB, Yasir Abdullah

This is a very interesting spot, cause there could be someone very cool and specific that randomly is still on the board. There’s certainly a wide spectrum of position groups that could be here. Running back makes sense, safety makes sense, there could be a rad DE that you could add to the DL you’ve already added.

I’m trying to get out in front of a rise up draftboards by Abdullah coming after his Combine appearance. And let me be specific here…Yasir played primarily a linebacker-sized passrusher for Louisville. I want to move him to MIKE linebacker. I think he moves so well in space. I think he can cover. I think he plays with such high FB IQ. I see a pro comp in him that I won’t announce, but that could be pretty special.

#5.153 – RB, Eric Gray

I see a lot of mock drafting that kinda overdrafts running backs en masse in the 3rd round. I don’t think that’s truly how the draft will play out. RB’s tend to fall. They certainly should fall to the 4th, and hopefully with the depth of RB this year a fair group will still be there into the 5th. I tend to think Seattle is looking for a RB that is more complimentary to Ken Walker than similar to him…Eric Gray might be too similar. But he’s just too damn fun.

#5.156 – DL, Dante Stills

When a position group is strong; it’s not a terrible idea to draft two. Like two OT and two CB in 2022. Dante Stills falls into the same group as Tuli Tuipulotu, but whereas Tuli has had more experience at DE; Dante has more reps at DT. In a sense, you need both as you are losing LJ Collier from DE and Poona Ford from DT as free agents.

#6.198 – DS, Jason Taylor II

JT2 is such a personal favorite player of mine in this draft. And, in part because of the devaluation of safeties in general, and in part because this particular safety class is not viewed highly; I think there is some real chance that he falls this far. It will depend on how he performs at the Combine.

#7.238 – OC, Alex Forsyth

This is basically just a dart throw pick. I look around draft big boards to see names that are available well-late into the top 300 names or so, and Forsyth is one that I like. With both Austin Blythe and backup center Kyle Fuller currently free agents; it may be a good idea to get two young players that can both play center, if needed.

Full draft:

DE Tyree Wilson
QB Hendon Hooker
DL Tuli Tuipuloto
TE Tucker Kraft
OL Steve Avila
CB Darius Rush
LB Yasir Abdullah
RB Eric Gray
DL Dante Stills
DS Jason Taylor II
OL Alex Forsyth