Author: seattleseamocks

Seahawks 2025 mock #1

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Three weeks into the NFL season, four weeks into the college season, and I’m already getting the itch to do some Sea-mocking. As I noted yesterday on my twitter; OTC has recently updated their projection of the 2025 compensatory picks, and in that Seattle gained a 6th round comp for losing Bobby Wagner. This comes in addition to the 4th and 5th they were already expected to get for losing Damien Lewis and Jordyn Brooks. These are not official, but it’s a good chance they’re close.

We lost a 5th rounder for the Leonard Williams trade, gained an early 6th rounder for the Darrell Taylor trade, and lost a late 6th rounder for the Trevis Gipson trade. So currently Seattle has 9 picks projected:

1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th-comp, 5th-comp, 6th-CHI, 6th-comp, 7th

As one of only two NFC undefeated teams (MIN), Seattle gets slated into the NFC championship round in terms of draft position, which means roughly the #29 overall pick.

I ran some reader polls on my twitter this last weekend just to kind of gauge fan interest in a couple of draft areas. In the first, fans were about 3 to 1 in favor of drafting a QB to redshirt behind Geno Smith and Sam Howell for a year. And, in terms of the offensive line, fans are most interested in finding a long-term fix at Left Guard over Center or Right Tackle.

Personally, I have some pretty strong interest in finding a long-term fix at nose tackle for Seattle. This has been the biggest problem on defense so far this year…stopping runs right up the middle. Johnathan Hankins has not been great, and he’s a free agent. Jarran Reed gets listed as a nose tackle, but he’s not really a true nose, and he’s also a free agent.

There are some pretty interesting draft names at DT that are already getting floated in the first round: Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams (my favorite), Kentucky’s Deone Walker, and Michigan’s Kenneth Grant. In this exercise, all three are off the board in the top 25 picks. I’m not doing projections of where guys eventually will land in the actual draft. I’m looking at current market price. This means that guys that media are probably over-valuing are not available, but also guys that are under-valued are clear to draft. Both sides of that play into this mock.

#1.29 – QB, Mississippi, Jaxson Dart

We’re at the part of the season where the QB’s I think eventually climb into the top half of the 1st round are currently available in the 2nd in national mock drafts. Around this time last year, guys like Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix were not going top 10. It’s the same right now for 2025 class. Right now all of Cam Ward, Drew Allar, Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart are consensus 2nd round, while guys like Carson Beck, Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers are the 1st round names. I like, literally, all of the 2nd round names better than all of the 1st round names. I think Beck is Nick Foles-esque. Sanders is such an entitled shithead of a person, that I put more in the Johnny Manziel or Kyler Murray class of guys that will never be true leaders of men. And Ewers, to me, is more of a Jay Cutler vibe.

Amongst the guys I like…Ward kinda reminds me of Geno Smith. I don’t LOVE him, but there’s enough in the toolbox that he could be a top 10 QB in the league, and with the perfect surrounding cast, he might win a Super Bowl.

Allar is 4 of 4 of these guys, and I probably wouldn’t draft him until the 4th round. But, if I’m going to do that, I’m probably just gonna pivot to the next tier that is more like 5th-6th round.

Milroe is fascinating. He’s got the highest marks among all seven of these QB’s in certain traits (arguably, the traits that I think lead to continuing success in the NFL). But he’s also got, probably, the most glaring flaws. If he’s Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott; he’s probably well worth a 2nd round pick. Would I take him in the 1st?? Tough call. We’ll know better in February.

And Dart, to me, is the best combination of now skill and future upside. He’s definitely the highest floor guy, to me. He can run the ball plenty, but if you told me you were asking him to be a pure pocket-passer; I think he’d still be great. Listed at 6’2″/225lbs, Dart is plenty stout, and he’s at the low-end of what I think is acceptable QB height. He’s got plenty of arm, but that won’t be his standout trait at pro day. To me, his ball-placement is top 2 or 3 in this class.

#2.62 – OG, Georgia, Tate Ratledge

I wouldn’t mind seeing John Schneider getting aggressive on an interior OL in this draft. But he probably won’t. I don’t know which OL pick hurt him, but he’s got a pretty substantial blindspot to the concept now. This is part of the plus/minus of having all these notebooks (long memory) he keeps…sometimes you over-correct when you should just let nature and the turning of the next class be its own correction.

Ohio State’s LG Donovan Jackson looks VERY good in his season debut last week, but he’s generally seen as a 1st round guy. Ratledge is currently listed as a late 2nd round name. He’s currently on the shelf with a foot/ankle injury that is expected to sideline him until November. He’s listed 6’6″/320lbs. I wouldn’t mind if we found out he was slightly shorter at the Combine, but otherwise very solid build.

Historically, I believe he has only played right guard, and I would want him to play left. I can’t imagine the challenges of moving from RG to LG are nearly as big as moving from RT to LT, so I’m guessing he can make the move. Ratledge is a character. He looks really athletic on tape, and he’s certainly got some nasty to him.

#3.93 – LB, Alabama, Deontae Lawson

Seattle has two starting linebackers playing on one-year deals in Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson. Maybe they’ll re-sign one, but I doubt they keep both. I don’t get the impression that they are super in love with 2024 LB draftpick Tyrice Knight. Like, I don’t think they want to green-dot Knight.

So we go back to the well in the draft to try to find a long-term piece at ILB. Knowing the free agency picture; I’ve been doing a fair amount of digging at the spot, and I was pretty happy when I got to Lawson. Listed 6’2″/239lbs; he more closely resembles the ILB we were seeing 7-8 years ago. The last couple of LB draft classes, there was nary a man that was over 230lbs. I like Deontae’s bigger body profile. I like his instincts. I like the way he moves almost like a running back cutting through the wash when he gets downhill towards the line of scrimmage.

#4.131 – TE, Texas, Gunnar Helm

It’s still early in the Ryan Grubb offense evaluation, but the early results don’t really show much preference for using the TE. We’ve seen exactly 6 targets to the combined TE group in the first three games. At UW, I don’t have the target numbers, but the reception numbers averaged about 4.5 catches per game to tight ends.

As much as people thought Seattle might target Brock Bowers in the 1st round last year; I just don’t know that this staff needs or wants a bigtime TE. We drafted a 4th round TE last year in AJ Barner. We’ve got Noah Fant signed through the end of 2025. We just need to draft a replacement for Pharoah Brown, who is only on a one-year deal.

Helm is listed 6’5″/250lbs, and he’s got 11 catches for 197 yards and 1 TD so far this year.

#4.136 – LB, Iowa, Jay Higgins

This was the first pick in this mock where I kind of found a cluttered board. It was mostly defense, but also potentially another stab at finding a Center of the future. I could see Seattle commit to Connor Williams going forward (he’s only 27), so I’m actually probably gonna punt on Center this year. Plus, there haven’t really been any standout centers so far.

I’ve recently made an observation that, in years past, when Seattle has drafted two players from the same position in the same draft…one of those two picks should have been used on a quarterback. This year, I’ve already drafted a QB, so I’ve cleared myself to double-dip.

Higgins is listed 6’2″/232lbs and has been a tackling machine for the Hawkeyes in 2023, ranking 3rd in the country per game, and 1st in total combined tackles. A 5th-year Senior; Higgins has paid his dues with all five years at Iowa…emblematic of the way coach Kirk Ferentz runs his program.

#5.172 – DL, Mississippi, JJ Pegues

I think DT is probably a bigger need for Seattle in the 2025 draft, than to wait until the 5th round. But as of right now, the 1st round DT are probably being over-valued, and all of the rest of the DT are probably being undervalued. So these next two picks are currently available super late…technically later than this…and I’m just slotting them here for now.

Pegues is a super interesting player. He’s listed 6’2″/325lbs, but Ole Miss have played him at DE, which isn’t too crazy, but it starts getting pretty nuts when you see that they’ve given him 5 rushing attempts. We’re not talking fullback, blocking reps. The guy has five designed runs, with two TD in four games, and on at least two of his carries, the guy leapt the pile. AND they’ve used him as additional OL in short yardage.

I definitely was drawn to him by his DT work, but I’m not gonna exclude the idea of him becoming a fullback/goalline option on a roster that isn’t currently carrying a fullback.

If you’re playing two positions; you get two highlights in the mock draft. Pegues at DT:

#6.180 – NT, Florida, Cam Jackson

I really think the true nose-tackle is something Seattle needs the most this draft. But I also wonder if it’s a spot that they will pay high value pick to acquire. I spent maybe an hour researching the draft class of nose tackles and immediately found ten candidates. This might be a great year to try to find one of these guys late. (**Technically, I also had Pegues on my NT shortlist, but I think his skillset is broader than JUST the nose. Hence, he gets picked earlier of the two.)

Jackson is one of 2-3 of my NT list that currently show up in the undrafted free agent range. So I’m already giving him more respect than the national media, even though 6th round seems late.

Jackson is listed 6’6″/342lbs. He has 2.5 career sacks in his three years at Memphis, plus two years at Florida. I don’t have misconceptions that he has some hidden passrusher in him. He would be picked to join the DL rotation as a run-stuff specialist. Period.

#6.210 – OT, Wisconsin, Riley Mahlman

Seattle’s RT situation is so cluttered. Incumbent starter Abe Lucas is injured and yet to play in 2024, with fears that his injury is degenerative and he’s not long for his playing days. George Fant is recently injured and placed on IR to miss at least three more games this year, and he has another year on his deal for 2025. Sataoa Laumea played a lot of RT in college, but is listed by the Seahawks as a Guard. Mike Jerrell was drafted in the 6th round of 2024 draft and is currently behind Lucas, Fant, and Stone Forsythe on the depth chart. Current RT starter Forsythe was a 6th round pick in 2021, and is currently set to be a free agent after this year.

While I wouldn’t mind if Seattle spent significant Draft capital to either trade for, or draft, a right tackle of the future…it doesn’t feel like that is what they will do. But if we spend another 6th round pick at the spot, we at least replace Forsythe straight-up, and then we work to see if the combo of Lucas, Fant, Jerrell, and draftpick can net us a decent starter for 2025.

Mahlman is a redshirt Junior for Wisconsin, listed at 6’8″/308lbs. He caught my eye while I was watching fellow Badger OT Jack Nelson. Mahlman is the natural RT, so we don’t have to do the projection on the side switch.

#7.243 – DS, Oklahoma State, Trey Rucker

This was a tough pick. I really like this class of RB, which I haven’t found room for yet. I didn’t give them any WR, and there are always WR (which can include into UDFA). And I haven’t drafted them a replacement for 2025 free agent K’von Wallace. Julian Love is under contract, Rayshawn Jenkins has another year left, Coby Bryant now seems to be a safety and he has another year on his rookie deal, and Jerrick Reed is still on the PUP.

It’s not a high priority position, but I do think that safety is a lowkey deep position going into this draft. I literally wrote down three safety names that are currently ranking as UDFA that I could have chosen from for this one pick alone.

I went with Rucker because he’s listed 6’0″/210lbs, and he’s third in the country in tackles per game with 13.25. He’s probably the future of the safety position where you’re kind of hybrid safety/linebacker. He also has 2 INT, 1.0 TFL in four games.

Mariners instant revisionist mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The MLB Draft, to me, is easily the most complex of all the major sport drafts. MLB has the option of both college and high school athletes, which only the NHL also allows. MLB has more draft rounds (20) than the other three sports combined (NBA-2, NFL-7, NHL-7). The NFL has slotted draft bonuses that actually mean something, where the MLB has slotted draft bonuses which actually don’t matter, and instead only contribute to their bonus pool for the first 10 rounds. In the NFL, players must declare for the draft by a pre-determined deadline, and either keep or lose their college eligibility depending on their declaration. In the NBA players can declare and then undeclare up to 10 days before the draft. In MLB, the players never have to declare, and they can decide to go to/remain in college even after they’ve been drafted.

As a result of all of these unique variables to the MLB Draft, it is almost impossible to predict draft order with any accuracy outside of the first round. (Really, it’s the top 15 picks.) Many of the top high school players in a draft class (per the media) aren’t ACTUALLY members of the draft class because they’ve informed MLB teams the requirements for them to sign away from their respective college commitments are too high for teams to actually consider drafting them. So they’ve become hollow place-holders on draft big-boards that the public are oblivious to. This totally screws up mock drafting models as dozens of the top players should be scratched.

Then there are the underslot, overslot, total slot bonus room games that each MLB team comes up with their own strategy to navigate, which make a true best player available mock draft non-existent.

After a number of years of studying MLB drafts, I have a pretty decent sample size to self-scout myself. Even when I have had some success predicting a player that Seattle drafts; I’m generally multiple rounds off of the exact draft position (eg: I mocked Seattle drafting relief pitcher Hunter Cranton at pick #7.213…the M’s actually drafted him at pick #3.91 for a massively underslot deal). This is why, over the last couple drafts, I’ve tried to create an immediate, reactionary re-draft for the Mariners. I like to have a document that legitimately factors the players that were both available to Seattle at their draft position each round, and also works from a signing bonus perspective where their overall draft fits under the Mariners’ actual bonus allowance.

I try not to include players that didn’t sign (the deadline for all draft signings this year was last Thursday, Aug 1st). This year, I knowingly broke this rule one time for reasons I will explain when we get there.

I do allow myself to “draft” guys that fell to undrafted status, but they must have signed in UDFA with a team. I can’t draft a guy that went undrafted and is still on the streets as of press time. The bonus(es) for UDFA guys that I’m mock drafting aren’t really considered, as it’s almost certain those guys aren’t getting much in terms of bonus, and therefore shouldn’t cross the $150,000 threshold allowed for all players picked after round 10.

The biggest problem with the rules for this exercise is that the “senior-sign”, underslot players drafted well before their actual value, are not eligible at later rounds that more closely match the value of their actual bonus. So, using the same previous example, I can only draft Hunter Cranton at one of Seattle’s first three round picks.

Here we go…

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

I think the greatest mistake of Seattle’s 2024 draft is that they took Jurrangelo Cijntje at #15 AND gave him a full-slot ($4.88mill) signing bonus. I think their overall draft would have been stronger if they took college RHP Trey Yesavage ($4.18mill) or prep pitcher Caminiti ($3.56mill) to start with.

Caminiti was projected as a top 12 pick in this class, but fell to pick #24. In theory, I would have gladly given Caminiti the full slot deal at #15, but we’ll get him at the #24 pick price. Overall, Caminiti cost more than Sloan, but I prefer Cam’s present stuff, future upside, and lefthandedness. And I can definitely create bonus room over the aggregate with somewhat selective drafting in the 2nd.

If Seattle had gotten Cijntje at the same price as Yesavage, I think I would have come to better terms with it. But the combination of Jurrangelo full-slot, and over-slot on Sloan, just crippled Seattle for many rounds. I don’t care that Seattle’s farm is in a good place; you’re still punting on basically an entire draft class (if 1 and 2 don’t work), instead of continuing to stack more quality assets in a world where ownership won’t pay for free agents, and we HAVE to draft and trade for MLB players. It was a VERY short-sighted draft.

Bonus: $3,556,300

#2.55 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman

I’m going on record that I think Holman will be a better pro pitcher than Cijntje. It happens all the time, even when Seattle drafts well, like when they drafted George Kirby in the 1st in 2019, they passed on Gunnar Henderson, or 2020 they picked Emerson Hancock while passing on Garrett Crochet, Jordan Westburg, Patrick Bailey, etc. Good picks can frequently still have been greater picks. And Holman cost almost 80% less than Cijntje, so the 2nd round pick could also have been 2nd plus 3rd (or more).

Bonus: $997,500

#3.91 – 3B, Norris HS, Kale Fountain

Seattle has now signed their first two picks in this draft ($4,553,800) for less than what it cost them to sign just Jurrangelo. So we have a surplus of almost $2mill under slot (or $3.327mill savings over Cijntje plus Sloan) to spread around the rest of the draft. Basically anyone drafted in the 3rd round down is in play. Unfortunately, most of my favored high school guys that would have needed overslot, weren’t even drafted or didn’t sign. Ineligible for this. The overslot options are limited.

Fountain is one guy that did sign. He was projected by MLB as their #121 overall player. He was picked at #151 by the Padres, and signed for about $1.3mill over slot at $1.7mill. This isn’t really a profile that Seattle has drafted out of high school in this regime. They’ve done a lot of “hit-first” prep shortstops and some run-tool outfielders. Fountain looks more power-first, prep corner infielder.

Bonus: $1,700,000

#4.121 – C, Nebraska, Josh Caron

My biggest problem with my own mock draft in real time three weeks ago was the lack of a catcher early in the draft. I wanted to get some guys in the system with the thought that Harry Ford might have been dealt at the deadline. Seattle kind of agreed, drafting Caron in the 4th and giving him, basically, the full slot amount. The price suggests Seattle believes in Caron. I hadn’t studied him before the draft, but let’s defer to the M’s pick, while also knowing MY pre-draft 4th round pick is still gonna be on the board. We can get both.

Bonus: $594,000

#5.154 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is an extremely disciplined, lefthanded hitting college 1B, with experience at catcher. Per my research, Collins is a better version of Grant Knipp at the plate. MLB projected Corey at #170, he was picked at #6.173, and he signed for $272k. I’m plenty happy to take him in the 5th for the same price.

Bonus: $272,500

#6.183 – RHP, Oregon State, Bridger Holmes

Seattle clearly went into this draft targeting fast-to-the-show college relievers. I had used the same idea in my mock drafts, so it seems logical to do a more focused version of that in this exercise. The M’s actually drafted the two highest-ranked relievers I found in my pre-draft pitching analysis. Holmes was the 4th-highest. He, essentially, replaces #2 Charlie Beilenson who was over-drafted in the 3rd round to an underslot deal. Holmes is only a slight downgrade in analytics, a slightly larger bonus, but at a three-round discount. Plus, he was born in Anacortes and has those Jeff Nelson mechanics that Mariner old-heads will appreciate.

Bonus: $215,000

#7.213 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

I am baffled by Seattle’s multi-year draft plan (or lack thereof) in regards to finding lefthanded pitching. It is a huge blindspot for them, and it makes no sense in a park like TMobile where you should WANT to push teams to hit righthanded heavy. Zsak is a lefty that was touching 99mph towards the end of the college season, and looked even better in two games in the Cape Cod League just after the season. He basically replaces Brock Moore, but from the southpaw side.

Bonus: $200,000

#8.243 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia

Again, still looking to add more LHP quality. Garcia wasn’t a big-velo guy, but he got a good amount of punchouts, and ate a ton of innings. Plus, he only cost $55,000 to sign. Garcia replaces Will Riley.

Bonus: $55,000

#9.273 – RHP, Polk State, Aiden Butler

We’re still running a bonus surplus, but I don’t really see anyone here that I both like as a prospect, got drafted/signed, and needed overslot money. I’m just keeping Seattle’s pick, Butler, who signed for about $60k overslot.

Bonus: $250,000

#10.303 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

I had Gazdar to Seattle in the 8th round in my final pre-draft mock, and he was actually drafted in the 11th round, but was given a bonus of $250,000 by St Louis. In rounds 11-20, any bonus amount over $150,000 counts towards the pool for rounds 1-10. So the Cardinals essentially valued Gazdar in the 7th round.

Bonus: $250,000

#11.333 – RHP, LSU, Christian Little

In all honesty, I didn’t really see the pick of Little coming, but it might be the best pick of the class for Seattle. Christian was a highly-touted prospect coming out of highschool as one of the youngest players eligible for the 2020 draft. He wasn’t drafted then, with the league conceding to his open desire to play for Vanderbilt, which he did do while he was still only 17 years old.

In college, Little never really found consistency, with season lines generally pushing an ERA over 5.75 and a WHIP over 1.510. But this is, lowkey, the kind of makeup that Seattle has polished up in guys like Bryce Miller and Logan Evans. Could be the steal of the draft with a slight over-slot signing of only $200k.

Bonus: $200,000

#12.363 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

Seattle drafted Walters in the 19th round and it was always gonna be a longshot for them to sign him due to how much college eligibility he had left, and going overslot on Sloan. In this exercise Seattle has all kinds of money left to spend, so I am breaking my own rule by keeping a player that didn’t sign, not knowing how much it would take to get it done, but I’ll give him everything we have left, plus the $150k all day three picks are allowed. This gets Walters up to the equivalent of 2nd round money. I feel safe thinking that gets a deal done.

Bonus: $1,500,000

#13.393 – 3B, VCU, Brandon Eike

Eike becomes the fifth member of Seattle’s actual draft class to carryover to the re-draft. There was some comparison made after the draft between Eike and Tyler Locklear because they both went to the same college, but really I think the comp for Eike might be more like Ben Williamson in the power department.

Bonus: $150,000

#14.423 – SS, Murray State, Drew Vogel

Vogel, to me, is a better version of Austin St Laurent. I like the power/speed combination of a guy that hit 20 HR and stole 16 SB this year.

Bonus: $130,000

#15.453 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green

Miller-Green is another holdover from my mock drafts. He was a top 12 bat in this class per my research, just behind Grant Knipp, and symbolically he upgrades Anthony Donofrio but a few rounds later.

Bonus: $25,000

#16.483 – RHP, East Carolina, Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman

WLS came in 6th in my pitcher rankings when isolated for relievers, so he remains in place after Seattle actually drafted him at this exact spot.

Bonus: $150,000

#17.513 – RHP, Cumberlands, Cesar Avila

At this point, I’ve run out of players that were drafted, so I’m pivoting to stealing players prior to undrafted free agency. Avila is a 6’3″/190lb starter that posted 124 strikeouts in 88.1 IP in the NAIA level school. We don’t know any of the next four signing bonuses, but we can give them each $150,000 without penalty.

Bonus: $150,000*

#18.543 – LHP, Arkansas, Stone Hewlett

Hewlett had the best pitching metric in my study for all lefthanded relievers, and he was 3rd amongst all relievers. He struck out a whopping 15.9 batters per 9 innings. The group of Walters, Hewlett, Holmes, Lunsford gives Seattle four of the top six relievers in this draft per my metric, plus a couple high-upside, high-velo guys in Zsak and Little.

Bonus: $150,000*

#19.573 – RHP, FIU, Danny Trehey

Trehey is a guy I found while poring over the list of UDFA signings, and then cross-referencing to my pitch metric. He came in #11 on my list of relievers, which is still very decent for this part of the draft. He posted a 1.83 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, and 13.4 SO/9 in 26 relief appearances.

Bonus: $150,000*

#20.603 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

For most of this draft, I’ve more or less tried to match like for like to what Seattle actually drafted. Pitcher for pitcher, hitter for hitter, position for position. To close that out, I should be taking an outfielder here, but I just like this player better. I felt Makarewicz was draftable as a switch-hitting corner infielder with power, and he went undrafted. I’d be psyched to steal him before the end of the draft.

Bonus: $150,000*

Mariner draft week mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re down to four days before the beginning of the 2024 MLB Draft, and I’m probably not going to have much time to do long-form writing the closer we get. So this is probably my last chance to get a full-mock update in.

Mariners’ scouting director Scott Hunter had a little press huddle sometime last week in which he gave some thoughts on the state of this draft class. A lot of what he said we already knew: there’s maybe 10 top of the first round locks (I put it at 12), which means starting around #11-13 we’re into a second tier of players, which surely affects Seattle at #15.

In my mock last week I pivoted to an underslot player in the 1st, to allow for buying overslot names rounds 2-5, and Hunter discussed (unprompted) that this might be a thing for Seattle this year.

He also talked about high school pitching. I think the greater press’ take that his thoughts point to the M’s drafting a prep pitcher in the 1st round is mistaken. I don’t think that’s really what he said, and it’s not what this draft class allows for. There are maybe four HS pitchers with first round projection, only three of which will probably still be available when Seattle is on the clock. That isn’t the way to hack this draft. Hunter specifically talks about prep pitching available from the back half of the first round through the 50’s…to me, this means from pick #16 to pick #59. This means it misses Seattle at #15, but is very much in play for Seattle at their second round pick at #55. This part I buy.

And if you look at mlb’s draft board, they have HS pitchers listed top 15 like this:

15- LHP Cam Caminiti

After the top 15 overall, they have prep pitchers listed like this:

16- RHP William Schmidt
19- RHP Ryan Sloan
30- LHP Kash Mayfield
36- RHP Braylon Doughty
41- LHP David Shields
46- RHP Joey Oakie
51- RHP Bryce Meccage
52- LHP Dasan Hill
56- RHP Dax Whitney
57- LHP Boston Bateman
58- RHP Levi Sterling
59- RHP Chris Levonas

See what I mean? One in the top 15. Two from 16-30. Two from 31-45. SEVEN from 46-60, including four after M’s pick at #55. This tracks.

#1.15 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman

I opened with Holman last week, and I’m sticking with him to head into the draft. In fact, I found a piece of data in the last few days that only reaffirms my plan: Holman is primarily thought of as a 92-94mph fastball guy, but in 2023 when he was pitching for Alabama, a prominent college baseball outlet published that he touched 98mph. His mix of present stuff, 6’4″/201lb frame, and a history of touching higher velocity in SEC play, leads me to believe he’s gonna to tick up in the not-so-distant future.

And my previously stated plans to sign Holman, the #45 overall player, to an underslot bonus deal at #15, still holds. I did do some research on underslot deals in the 2023 draft, and it was rare to find discounts of over $1mill, like I had hoped. Brock Wilken signed for about -$871k underslot as the #18 overall pick, but for the most part deals were closer to $600k underslot. The slot at #15 is $4,880,900. If we can get Holman for $4mill even…awesome, but I think $4.2mill might be more realistic. Still, that would pocket us $680,900 for future picks.

#2.55 – RHP, Blackfoot HS, Dax Whitney

This is, obviously, the big change from last mock. I was previously thinking of a college bat in the 2nd round like when they got Tyler Locklear in 2022. But, really, in 2022 Seattle had two picks in the 2nd, and the other ended up being prep RHP Walter Ford.

Whitney is a pretty late-riser in this cycle as a guy coming from the rarely-scouted baseball state of Idaho. But he’s a 6’5″/193lb righty with a present fastball sitting 94mph, but touching 96. Adding muscle to his long, lean frame should really help him bump that up to closer to a 97mph regular velo, that can touch 99. He has two current secondaries that are pretty legit, and is working on his changeup to eventually give him a true four-pitch mix.

Whitney has a college commitment to Oregon State. The bonus slot for #55 is $1,641,800. Last year, Cleveland signed Alex Clemmey away from college for $2.3mill at pick #58, and Pittsburgh got Zander Mueth signed for $1.8mill at pick #67. In 2022, the Cubs needed $3.01mill to secure Jackson Ferris at pick #47 as the high end, but other prep pitchers signing that year included: 46- Jacob Miller ($1.70mill), 50- Jackson Cox ($1.85mill), 57- Cole Phillips ($1.50mill), 74- Walter Ford ($1.25mill). I think we should be able to get Whitney away from OSU for $2mill, which would be $358,200 overslot. Running total gives us $322,700 savings.

#3.91 – LHP, IMG Academy, Blake Larson

While doing diligence to see if there are any other prep LHP that I really like (after Caminiti), I came upon Larson in the last few days. I hadn’t watched him before that, but he’s 6’3″/180lbs with a present fastball touching 96mph with run. There is a very legit, high-spin slider as secondary offering, and he’s working on a change as third offering. I love the stuff, it’s more a question of: can he get more refined, and lock in better control as he matures?

Larson has a college commitment to TCU. He played his junior year of high school in Iowa, but this year he moved down to Florida and the prestigious IMG Academy on the cusp of the draft. Why would you make a huge geographic move in your senior year of high school for any reason other than increasing your draft profile? Meaning: you want to be drafted and you want to sign. The M’s bonus allotment for this pick is $812,900. I’m going to use all of my savings so far, and dip into some future money, to get Blake up to a $1.2mill bonus. We’re now $64,400 in the hole.

#4.121 – 1B/DH, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in this class. MLB has him as a 5th-6th round player…likely because, even though he has history of playing catcher and outfield in college, he’s limited to 1B/DH going forward. So, I’m hoping to steal him here in the 4th and create a nice, high-floor base for the M’s 2024 hitting class. Collins is also almost 23 years old, so he should be signable to an underslot deal. I’m hoping for $500k, which would save an additional $94,900. Current savings: $535,600.

#5.154 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

It’s an intended strategy to take pitching earlier than hitting in this draft. A) The Seattle farm is stronger on bats at the moment, B) the way this draft stacks up, the most projectable bats are either in the top 20 overall, or available after the 10th round. So, in theory, we should be able to pay premium prices on arms, and then circle back to bats later-ish. And it’s not unheard of for Seattle to do this. In 2019 they drafted five consecutive pitchers to start the draft, and eight of their first nine as pitchers. Five of those eight arms have made it all the way to MLB.

Dohm, like the pitching version of Collins, has some of the best pitching metrics in this draft for me versus SEC competition. There are some questions about health, which led to only 29.1 innings pitched this year. But I love the frame, I love the stuff, and I love the control. He’s 21 years old with eligibility remaining, but hopefully a full-slot deal here in the 5th gets him signed.

#6.183 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

I’ve had LMG in prior mocks, and usually in later rounds, but I’m placing him earlier in this one because his talent warrants it, and because I currently need a senior signing to get back in the black for overall bonus money. We’ll call it a $125k bonus. We are now back to $139k underslot overall.

#7.213 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

More senior signings. Cranton is a pure reliever with a fastball that is already 98mph and has awesome metrics, to go with another plus pitch in his slider. Already 23 years old, but you’ll see this repeatedly in this draft class due to being at the back end of the Covid class. Relievers, especially, with this kind of present stuff should move really quickly through the minors. Another $125k bonus senior signing.

#8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar has a pretty high-floor profile for another senior sign candidate. Primarily a shortstop in college, his profile probably moves him to 2B as a pro. Third consecutive $125k signing gives us $364k in underslot savings.

I’ve sort of earmarked the 9th round to be an overslot pick. I don’t know if it’s a highschool player, but it might be. There are definitely two college relievers with multiple years of eligibility remaining that I’m eying here. Actually, as I’m writing this, I’m wondering if I split the difference on the bonus surplus I have; could I get both of my guys in the 9th and 10th? Let’s try it.

#9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

Walters is recently returned from Tommy John surgery, but came back with pretty impressive results posting a 1.024 WHIP, 14.5 SO/9 and only 1.3 BB/9 in 13.2 innings pitched in relief. Giving him even split of the bonus surplus remaining means he gets $418,450.

#10.303 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a returning entrant in my mock drafts who I’ve been over-drafting his draft projection due to the fact he’s technically a redshirt sophomore after missing 2023 with an injury. But he’s draft eligible at 21 years old. I had been planning, in previous mocks, to get him around 4th-6th round where the slot bonus ranges from $594k down to $334k, with the idea of giving him $400k at whichever round he ended up. The $418k I have left is perfect.

Zsak made 6 starts this year across his work at Rutgers and two made in the Cape league, in addition to 15 appearances in relief. I’d love to try him as a starter for as long as possible, knowing that his stuff will definitely tick up if we move him back to the pen as means to get him to the show faster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

Picks 11 and 12 of this mock I’m going away from pure stuff and looking for high-pitchability, innings-eaters. Kmatz presently maxes out about 93mph, but he knows how to maximize it up in the zone, and he has one of the prettiest curveballs I’ve seen in the class. And he controls it beautifully.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia, again, doesn’t wow you with velo, but he’s doing enough with pitch sequencing and control, that he managed 11.6 SO/9 in his first year pitching for a Power 5 school. He’s got a big 6’4″/218lb frame, too, that lets you dream on more velo down the road.

#13.393 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Part of my strategy in this draft is to stock up on arms early, and find those sneaky hitters in late rounds (and undrafted free agency…which should be deep this year) that are probably small-school, but have great hit metrics (think in terms of Ben Williamson, Brock Rodden, etc). Shallenberger is at the top of that list. He reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence in that nothing he does is super fluid, and maybe you even go as far as to say “awkward”, but he’s a gamer. He hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and 45 BB to 28 SO.

#14.423 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a senior of almost 24 years old, but he hit .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI with premiere exit velocity and a penchant for clutch hitting in the CWS. He plays a very solid defensive 3B, as well, and he can switch-hit.

#15.453 – 1B, Morehead St, Roman Kuntz

The Seattle farm is chock full of middle-infield potential thanks to multiple years of drafting there early and often, so I’m looking to take multiple stabs this draft at the corners of the infield. Kuntz is listed at 6’3″/180lbs, but looks way bigger on tape. Already a 23-year-old this March; Roman hit .366/.482/1.341 with 33 HR, 100 RBI, and 50 BB to 34 SO.

#16.483 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Ryan Ure

This is a pure velo play. Ure has a ton of redflags with injury history and lack of control, but he’s been up to 103mph from the left side. Well worth the risk this late, and it’s very likely another team has risked it earlier.

#17.513 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is a guy that really caught my eye in the recent MLB Draft League. At Arizona this year he was 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, but in the draft league he’s ticked up to 3.45 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 14.4 SO/9. The breaking ball is pretty special.

#18.543 – RHP, William & Mary, Carter Lovasz

I found Lovasz just doing diligence on relievers. He’s got a good frame at 6’3″/185lbs, and I don’t have numbers on his present velo, but he’s definitely using it well up in the zone to the tune of 3.12 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 7 saves last year.

#19.573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

If there’s one thing in this draft that I wanted to do, but that the player pool really didn’t convince me to do, was to draft one or two higher end catchers. I still think Harry Ford ends up traded before the deadline, and there’s not a ton of talent in the farm. I wanted to find a catcher that has some power, has some defense, has some athleticism. Schiavone ticks a lot of that. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 9 SB, and a 38% caught stealing rate. Yeah, that’ll do.

#20.603 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

This pick could really be anything. I’ve got a first baseman in Tyler Macgregor I really like. I’ve got an outfielder named Ryley Preece that I think has some nice tools. I went with Vogel because he’s got good power at a premium defensive position. He hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16 SB.

I kinda recognize that this draft feels counter-intuitive to the state of the Mariners. But, really, the state of the MLB team and the state of the farm system are not the same. Whereas, the MLB roster is at a massive deficit on hitting, and the star of the show is our big league pitching…it’s pretty opposite on the farm. There is quite a deficit of pitching. We have a few starters that are out-performing draft position, with a few more that have been on longterm IL, but we have next to nothing exciting or MLB-quality coming out of our respective bullpens. And we’ve been getting decent early returns on middle-round college bats (Locklear, Williamson, Rodden, Schreck, which would work really well with this draft class.

This draft, more than any recent draft, is so dependent on how Seattle manages their first pick. If they can do something smart, and strategic, with that pick; they could be en route to a very interesting class.

Mariner mock July

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

As I’m writing this on Sunday, June 30th; the MLB Draft round one will begin two weeks from today. There’s been an ongoing theme of this draft cycle for at least a month now that Seattle, drafting at #15 overall, is going to miss out on the true 1st round talents of this draft, which is only about 12 players deep. I’ve been doing mocks as if one of those guys will (miraculously) fall to them. Maybe that will happen, but I’m feeling more and more anxious that it won’t. So this mock represents my big pivot to a more plausible scenario.

The top 12 names go, in no order: Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone, Braden Montgomery, Nick Kurtz, JJ Wetherholt, James Tibbs, Konnor Griffin, Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage, Cam Caminiti. If any of these guys is available at #15; you just don’t think about it, and you take him. We need guys like Bryce Rainer, Christian Moore, and maybe like a Seaver King to be the “upsets” in the top 14 to get a 12 to us.

The more I’ve settled into the likely outcome that a top 12 fall doesn’t happen, the more I’ve come to think that maybe the hack of this draft for Seattle is: to accept they aren’t getting a “1st round talent”, and pivot to an idea that the next tier of names is like 30 players deep of a very similar grade, and to draft one that will allow you to backlog some significant slot bonus money by signing an underslot deal, which then allows them to try to make moves on bigger talents on day two.

When Seattle acquired Gregory Santos from the White Sox, part of the package going to Chicago was the #68 overall pick, which carries a bonus pool allotment of $1,197,200. I look at that figure and think that’s kind of the minimum amount I’d like to try to save in any combo of 1st-2nd round signings, and siphon that to day-two picks.

Looking at Seattle’s draft history under Jerry Dipoto…they have been ELITE at drafting and developing college pitching to completion as MLB players. They have NEVER graduated a high school pitcher from prospect to their own successful pro player, and they don’t even have any candidates currently above high-A level (*edit: as I was writing this, the news broke that 2021 high school 3rd rounder Michael Morales was promoted to AA), so they are at best extremely slow at developing them. The report card is still incomplete on how successful they’ve been drafting and developing prep hitters through the farm, but with Harry Ford and Cole Young doing decent at AA, plus promising early returns on Colt Emerson, Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Aidan Smith…I don’t think you’d hesitate if the right guy was there. Perhaps the second-best draft/develop category for Seattle has been college hitters with Evan White winning an MLB Gold Glove, Kyle Lewis winning ROY, Cal Raleigh being the best power-hitting catcher in baseball, and MLB at-bats from Cade Marlowe, Austin Shenton (for Tampa), Zach Deloach (for CHW), and now Tyler Locklear. These are things you HAVE to consider if you’re Jerry and Scott Hunter. Self-scout.

The current media buzz on Seattle’s interest(s) at #15 is basically useless. Jim Callis, in his mock from last week, has Seattle drafting college switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje. He specifies, “the Mariners would like to restock their pitching supply”…awesome, they do need to do that. Callis continues, “(Trey) Yesavage is the dream here”…great, he’s pitcher 3 of 3 on my board, no complaints. He mentions Cam Caminiti before Cijntje, but Cam is off the board at #13 to San Francisco, which is one of the most consistent mock picks I see across all drafts. BUTTTT….in his mock from June 6th, Callis had Seattle drafting college 3B Cam Smith, but M’s are quote, “pursuing every demographic.”

Local writer that I really enjoy, Joe Doyle, on May 28 had Seattle draft prep LHP Kash Mayfield, and writes that, for Seattle, “it seems to be pitching, pitching, pitching.” Jump forward to June 25th, Boyle pivots to prep athlete Theo Gillen as his pick at #15, and his quote is, “Seattle seems to prefer college performers at this spot.”

There’s a lot of contradiction and inconsistency there at first blush. But, if you really break it down…Callis’ two most recent projections are 1) college pitcher, 2) “every demographic”. Doyle’s two theories are 1) pitching, 2) college. You can actually, potentially, draw a through-line there that becomes a college pitcher. Kinda interesting.

1.15 – RHP, Louisiana State, Luke Holman

If I remember correctly, I had Holman in my first mock of the year. That was when he was at the apex of his buzz this year. That faded a bit as the season progressed, but he’s landed at #45 overall. Just for reference, the other names mentioned by national media in mocks and their MLB rankings: #14 Cam Smith, #19 Ryan Sloan, #25 Cijntje, #27 Slade Caldwell, #28 Gillen, #30 Mayfield. I mean, Seattle is probably reaching on their pick at #15. Why not get a discount on that reach?

Holman ranks as a top-10 pitcher in this class in my pitching metric. He’s not as hot of a name as Hagen and Chase because those guys throw 99mph and struck out 17 per nine each and showed great control. Valid. He’s also not as hot a buzz as guys like Cijntje and Brody Brecht as well, but they only seem to be ranked higher than Holman because of velo. Not valid. I think their projectability is actually less than his.

Holman is a 6’4″/201lb starter that presently touches 94mph. So he’s not starting from that bad of a place velo-wise. And the frame is great to add some strength in time. There’s a decent amount of pitchers, like Degrom or Cole, that win Cy Young’s with elite velo. But there’s this entire pocket of guys that do it with control, secondaries, and pitchability. Scherzer at the high end, but I’m also looking at Shane Bieber and, especially, Corbin Burnes.

Burnes was a 6’3″/245lb starter when he came out of St Mary’s in the 2016 Draft. His fastball was in the 92-95 range and MLB ranked him the #39 prospect pre-draft, and he fell to the Brewers at #111 overall in the early 4th round. His stat line in his last year in college ran: 2.48 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 10.6 SO/9, 3.64 SO/BB. Luke Holman this year at LSU: 2.75 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 12.5 SO/9, 3.85 SO/BB. I like this profile more than the national media. If you don’t think you can get him at #55; I kinda don’t mind doing this at #15 with the underslot caveat.

Bonus slot for the #15 pick is $4,880,900. Bonus value at #45 (where Holman is projected) is only $2,072,800. If you split the difference, you’re at $3,476,850…call it $3.5mill, and you’ve pocketed $1,380,900 for future use.

Backup plan: similar story, but I like going underslot on prep RHP Joey Oakie. He’s literally next on MLB’s big board behind Holman at #46. Something about his mechanics and stuff reminds me of Bryan Woo. I think $3.5mill would get him out of his commitment to Iowa U.

2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

This pick, to me, is so similar to the pick of Tyler Locklear at 2.58 in 2022. Super advanced hit metrics but dragged down big boards by his, presumed, defensive positional limitations. But when you dig into his full profile…he’s not too far removed from being a left-handed hitting catcher (2 starts at C in 2024, 13 starts in 2023). He’s also been athletic enough at 6’3″/236lbs to play 20 games in the outfield in his Georgia career.

But the carrying tool is the bat. He hit LEADOFF for the Bulldogs for most of the year to the tune of .354/.574/1.346, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 56 BB, 32 SO. The RBI number probably would have been higher if he wasn’t hitting leadoff. By comparison, Player X in college: .374/.469/1.128, 14 HR, 60 RBI. That’s Pete Alonso.

In theory, this is a guy that would move fast through the minors as a 1B/DH. Could he debut straight out of spring training in 2026? Just as the contract for Mitch Garver is over and not renewed.

This pick is also somewhat reminiscent of the 2nd round pick of Ben Williamson last year, in that Williamson was drafted at #2.57 overall as a 22-year-old Senior, who signed for -$836,500 underslot. Collins is a 22-year-old Senior, and the bonus slot at #55 is $1,641,800. Coming from an SEC school, I don’t know that you underslot him down to $600k like they did for Williamson, but keeping him at a $1.2mill bonus would still save you $400k+ to use on day two.

These first two picks have saved Seattle a combined $1,822,700 of bonus pool.

Backup plan: any number of slight reaches on college pitchers like RHP Daniel Eagen, LHP Ryan Prager, RHP Ryan Forcucci who score very high on the pitch projection metric.

3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

In 2023 Seattle drafted Tommy John patient and Wake Forest RHP Teddy McGraw at #3.92. They signed him for $136k underslot. Dohm is not currently recovering from TJ, but he was limited in 2024 to only 29.1 innings due to some kind of injury recovery/management.

When healthy, Dohm is up to 98mph with a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9 and only 1.2 BB/9. This profile feels more like what Seattle used to target in the Gilbert, Kirby, Hancock era.

Dohm has college eligibility remaining, so I’m not sure we go underslot on him, but we have enough bonus saved that we could go overslot on him if we really needed to. For now, I’m allotting him exactly slot money.

Backup plan: I think there’s a grouping of prep pitchers in this range that are very interesting including LHP Ethan Schiefelbein, LHP Mason Russell, RHP Jackson Barberi, LHP Mason Brassfield.

4.121 – 3B, Central Bucks East HS, Chase Harlan

In 2023, Seattle had the three picks in the first round which became the three high school hitters. But subplot to that was that they went back to high school hitter in the 4th round with an overslot deal to OF Aidan Smith. Smith was MLB’s #78 ranked player, and Seattle got him at #124. The slot where he was drafted was $531k and they signed him for $1.2mill. I love this move at this range. There’s inevitably a pocket of high school players that wanted second round money, but just hadn’t found a fit with a team.

Harlan is a bit of an arbitrary pick here. I don’t know that he will be on the board still (MLB ranks him #112), I don’t know that he will be willing to sign away from commitment to Clemson. Harlan is young for the class (actually turns 18 next week), but he’s already 6’3″/210lbs and has some of the biggest shoulders I’ve ever seen on a high schooler. He posted some of the top 5 hardest hit EV’s at the recent MLB Combine against a mix of college and high school players. But on top of the brute strength tool, I believe I found that he only struck out 5 times in the entire HS season (about 7% K-rate). So he’s potentially pretty disciplined, as well.

This is definitely overslot, but it’s just a question of how much. I’m gonna earmark an even $1.5mill to get him signed.

Backup plan: overslotting a different high school player that has fallen from higher ranking.

5.154 – C, Bishop Gorman HS, Burke-Lee Mabeus

I sort of have it in my head that Harry Ford is not long for the organization. He will be the biggest piece of the biggest trade Seattle is going to need to make in the next few weeks. So, I’d like to find some youth at the catching position to go with the savvy, defensive receiver I will add from the college ranks later this mock.

Mabeus is a 6’3″/210lb, switch-hitting prep catcher with a commitment to Oregon. He’s ranked #159 overall by MLB.com, so the positioning makes sense, and it’s just a question of signability. Again, we can offer him probably $1mill overslot no problem, but we might get it done with about $700k extra. I will call it a $1mill total bonus for ease of tracking.

I really love both swings from Burke-Lee, and we’ve had success with SH catchers recently, and technically we did draft Adley Rutschman out of high school back in 2016 when he was committed to an Oregon college.

Backup plan: I still like local high school SS Adam Haight.

6.183 – RHP, William and Mary, Nate Knowles

I have a hunch that Knowles will be highly sought after by the Seattle analytics room. He’s only 6’0″/205lbs, but he’s young for the class as a 20-year-old Junior, and he’s doing stuff with pitch metrics that are intriguing. His season line was tremendous: 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9.

7.213 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

It’s a bit of a priority for me to find A) some kind of LHP starting options to add to a roster that is currently filled by five RHP starters in a home park that you should probably want as many LHP as possible, B) some high-octane, fast-moving relievers as the entire farm is woefully inept out of the ‘pen right now. Zsak is potentially both.

Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb southpaw with only one year of college experience, but is draft eligible as a guy turning 21 two days before the draft. His college season went 4.11 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9 in 35.0 innings out of the bullpen, but he’s currently adding starting work in the Cape Cod League where he’s got 12 K’s in only 7.1 innings (14.7 SO/9) and a 0.955 WHIP. I feel like he’s about to take off, and I’m really eager to buy low on him. But with the amount of college eligibility he has left, it can’t be buying TOO low.

8.243 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar

Gazdar is a 5’11″/180lb infielder that played exclusively shortstop for Austin Peay, but in two weeks of games in the Cape League he’s been mostly at 2B, with some time at 3B and SS, and looks to me like a future 2B is one of the best contact hitters in the country with only 14 SO in 237 AB’s (5.9%), while walking 27 times. The slash line went .405/.484/1.151 with 13 HR, 55 RBI, and 9×10 SB. He would be so reminiscent of last year’s 5th rounder Brock Rodden, who has been a very solid performer already reaching AA in his first full year of pro ball. Seattle needs high-floor, fast-moving position players like this to go with the fast-moving bullpen arms.

9.273 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters

The more time I’ve had post-NFL Draft; the more relievers I’ve been able to find. Over the last week I’ve actually been able to go roster by roster across three of the Power 5 conferences, and that process revealed two guys in this mock to me.

Walters is a 6’3″/194lb reliever recently returned to Miami from TJ surgery, and he threw 13.2 innings in 2024 across 15 appearances. ERA was 3.29, WHIP of 1.024, and 14.5 SO/9.

10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

Returning from previous mocks; Miller Green is a 6’5″/237lb outfielder that hit .393/.533/1.432 last year with 30 HR and 94 RBI. The ONLY reason he’s potentially available this late is because he will be 24 in September. In terms of just the bat; this is one of the best values available in the entire draft. If you have to pick him earlier, probably worth it. The floor here might be righthanded Luke Raley.

11.333 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

The M’s have done something pretty interesting the last 2-3 drafts wherein they devote most of their picks in the 10th-15th rounds to drafting college pitchers. I love this idea and I’m sticking with it in this mock.

Garcia is a 6’4″/218lb LHP that actually became of the highest-rated LHP starting pitchers in my pitch metric. He’s not ranked very high by draft outlets because of the lack of high-velo stuff. But this profile has proven effective in Tmobile Park. In 2024 he posted 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9 in 16 starts.

12.363 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher represents a very similar profile as Garcia, but from the righthand side. At 6’3″/195lbs, he had a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 with more pitchability than stuff.

13.393 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Ryan Ure

Ure is the polar opposite of his college teammate Garcia. He is all power stuff, with a pretty glaring lack of pitchability/control. At 6’8″/234lbs, Ure is a massive man with a massive 103mph fastball that led to a 17.2 SO/9 rate in his limited work in 2024, after missing all of 2023 with an injury. So there are multiple redflags here, but on day 3 of the draft it sort of doesn’t matter. If you can fix/maintain Ure’s arm; you potentially have years of Aroldis Chapman lite.

14.423 – RHP, Kansas, Hunter Cranton

I sort of feel like this is much too late to be targeting Cranton, but I also feel that way about 90% of my picks in every mock. But I’m placing him a full round or two ahead of the national media ranking, and seeing if that’s enough compensation. Hunter is a 6’3″/210lb reliever at 23 years old who posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 13.7 SO/9 across 25 innings last year.

15.453 – RHP, Arizona, Dawson Netz

Netz is 6’1″/203lbs and this year posted a 4.29 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, and 11.6 SO/9 out of the Arizona bullpen.

16.483 – SS, Murray State, Drew Vogel

These last five picks will all be position players, and could really be made in any order. I tried to find good athletes with well-rounded toolsets. I’m basically just taking them in an order based on defensive position priority. We start with the shortstop. Vogel is a 6’1″/195lbs SS that hit .331/.441/1.097 last year with 20 HR, 61 RBI, and 16×17 SB.

17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is a 6’2″/208lb catcher with above average catch and throw defense, that also hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI, 9×12 SB last year.

18.543 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a big, strong 6’3″/234lb 3B that can switch-hit to the tune of .378/.438/1.191 with 24 HR, 84 RBI and some very clutch hits in this year’s CWS.

19.573 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger reminds me a bit of Hunter Pence. It’s not pretty, but it’s effective. At 6’2″/220lbs he hit .375/.514/1.201 with 17 HR, 64 RBI, and an incredibly disciplined 45 BB to 28 SO.

20.603 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler MacGregor

MacGregor is 6’3″/215lbs and hit .402/.484/1.270 with19 HR, 80 RBI and a very solid 15×17 SB from the firstbase position.

As we progress through the tail end of the Covid year era, there should be quite the class of undrafted players available this year. I’d look for the Mariners to sign another 6-10 guys that route after the draft ends.

Mariner Mock 3

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I’ve been looking at the Mariner farm system this week, and it seems to me, in theory, that the M’s early picks should be college hitters that can move fast through the minors to affect the major league lineup sooner, or high school pitchers that they can take their time to develop until the current ML rotation reaches the stage of being too expensive to maintain. I’m super hesitant to co-sign the high school pitching half because Seattle has never developed an in-house prep pitcher all the way to the majors. But my feelings have nothing to do with what Seattle will do.

Three recent national baseball mock drafts have differing general thoughts on what Seattle is targeting this year. One says they’re looking at prep pitching and prep hitting, one says they are looking at prep pitching and college pitching, and I think the third was simply naming names that included a majority of pitchers. The common denominator was pitching. So I’m kinda steering into those combined thoughts.

**The caveat to this is that there are about seven hitters that should go in the top 10 that, should one fall to 15, you break from the planned strategy.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This pick is threading the needle. There are a few HS arms that get top 20 consideration: LHP Kash Mayfield, RHP William Schmidt, RHP Ryan Sloan, but it’s really only Caminiti that I feel confident about. He’s a 6’2″/205lb southpaw that is young for the class as a reclassified 2025 17-year-old, who is already touching 98mph. There is some conversation about him playing two-ways as an outfielder, which I don’t care to try, but it does speak to the athleticism Cam brings. He’s got a four-pitch mix

The M’s don’t have any LHP in their current major league starting rotation, and their only LHP in their top 30 prospects is #29 Reid VanScoter, who has a pretty pedestrian 4.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. 7.33 SO/9, 2.44 SO/BB in AA ball, after being drafted in the 5th round in 2022. They need to take a bit more of a focus on adding some lefthanded pitching overall. I will attempt to do some of that for them in this mock.

#2.55 – 1B/C, Georgia, Corey Collins

I’ve had Collins in my mock before, but this time I’m moving him all the way up to the 2nd round. This reminds me a bit of 2022 when Seattle drafted a prep player in the 1st (Cole Young), and then came back to draft Tyler Locklear at #58 in the 2nd. It’s a very high-floor college bat to sort of protect you from the risk of the 1st round prep player. National media doesn’t have Collins ranked this high, but my numbers say he’s worth it.

Collins is a 6’3″/223lb lefthanded hitting first baseman for the Bulldogs. He has some experience as a catcher, including 2 games this year after 13 games at C in 2023, as well as a handful of appearances as a corner outfielder. I would draft him with the intention to return him back behind the dish on a more semi-permanent basis, until we find he isn’t capable as a receiver, knowing his future may veer more toward the 1B/DH side. I look at this like a lefty Pete Alonso, who was picked at #64 overall in 2016.

For the year, Collins has hit .360/.581/1.361 with 19 HR, 56 RBI, a great eye at the plate, and some pretty impressive bat-speed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

There has been some conversation recently about the pro’s and con’s of moving starting pitcher types, to the bullpen, and the possibility of moving them back to starting down the road. This came up after the news that Seattle has moved their fastest-moving pitching prospect, Logan Evans, from the AA rotation to their bullpen, with the open acknowledgment that this is with intention to fast-track Evans to the Show. Edwin Diaz came up in this conversation, Matt Brash came up, but I didn’t hear anyone talk about Garrett Crochet.

Crochet came out of college with 13 starts in 36 appearances for the Tennessee Volunteers. The White Sox moved him directly from the draft to the majors as a bullpen guy, and Crochet remained in the pen in 2021, missed all of 2022 injured, remained the bullpen in 2023, but has been exclusively a starting in Chicago in 2024. And he might end up the White Sox’ all star representative this year, he’s been that good.

So I’m not as worried as others about pigeon-holing a guy as one or the other, a starter or a reliever. I’m actively looking for prospects this draft that have experience with both, that we could fast-track to the bullpen, and then re-assess their role as our starting rotation gets expensive or injured or traded over a period of multiple years. Dohm is one of those guys.

Dohm is a 6’4″/210lb righty with 11 career starts in 40 appearances for the (other) Bulldogs. He has 6 starts in 8 appearances this year. He has missed some time due to some minor injuries, so his season line only accounts for 29.1 innings, but in that work he has posted a 1.23 ERA, 0.920 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9. If he had even a fraction of those numbers across, say, double the innings; we might be talking about a 1st round player. In shorter, relief outings; Dohm’s fastball has been up to 99mph. Secondary offerings include a slider he’s slowed down this year to give more sweep action, and added a tight curveball that I’m really liking in small sample. In interviews, it seems he’s still tinkering on a 4th offering…sometimes a change, sometimes a sinker…nothing concrete yet.

I would definitely give him the Logan Evans path after the draft: start or two in Arizona, three starts in Modesto, then skip the cold-weather Everett situation in September 2024 and April 2025 and move him straight to AA for 2025.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

Zsak is a holdover from previous mock(s), with a similar story to Dohm. He’s a 6’3″/185lb LHP with 4 starts, 15 relief appearances in 2024. He’s considered a redshirt freshman academically, but as a guy that will turn 21 this July; Zsak will be draft eligible. BUT…as a guy with a lot of college eligibility remaining; you might need to give him a pretty healthy signing bonus to get him out of that commitment. Hence: round 4.

The difference between Zsak and Dohm…I think Zsak is probably inevitably a reliever, whereas Dohm is probably a starter. But I’d give both the chance to start with the thought to convert to relief as per the needs of the big club.

#5.154 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz

Makarewicz is a 6’3″/234lb, switch-hitting, 3B that I’ve come to find late in the process as he has impressed during the college post-season. He’s not a guy that my hitting metric flagged particularly high, so unlike many of my picks; he’s based more off the eye test. He’s a bit over-aged (but there is a lot of over-aged in this draft), he doesn’t walk very much, but he has some pretty elite exit velocity numbers. This is a player, and a draft range, where you can potentially save some signing bonus to re-direct elsewhere.

For the season, Mak has posted a .379/.442/1.178 slash with 20 HR, 76 RBI, 24 doubles in his first year with the Wolfpack, after four years at ECU.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’2″/200lb centerfielder that my hitting metric really loved. His season line goes: .401/.508/1.305 with 18 HR, 67 RBI, 20 doubles, and 11 stolen bases. And he plays a very solid CF. He looks similar to Mariner recent picks in rounds 6-10 from small schools like Brock Rodden, Hogan Windish, Bill Knight, Spencer Packard. Should give you a professional at-bat with some decent power, and solid defense. Another potential comp could be former Mariner Jake Fraley.

#7.213 – RHP, William & Mary, Nate Knowles

I had Knowles in my first mock draft of this season, then he kinda got squeezed out of my 2nd, and now he’s back for the 3rd. I’ve moved him up a few rounds because he’s a draft-eligible 20-year-old Junior at W&M that you may need to pay a bit more bonus money. I think he’s gonna be a guy that Seattle’s analytics group flag as a favorite. In terms of the basic stats, he has a 2.48 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9 across an even 80 innings this year. He kinda reminds me of bowling alley Bryce Miller.

#8.243 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller Green

With Julio Rodriguez locked up to play centerfield for the next decade, and a whole farm system full of potential middle-infielders; Seattle really needs to find some prospect options at the corners of both infield and outfield. LMG is a big boy at 6’5″/237lbs that has played right field (and pitched) for the Governors this year. He hit .393/.533/1.432 with 30 HR, 94 RBI, and a sneaky 13×15 in SB.

#9.273 – 3B, Penn University, Wyatt Henseler

I hesitated slightly to take two third baseman in the top 10, but Seattle really doesn’t have much on the farm that is playing 3B. Tyler Locklear was drafted at 3rd, but quickly became an everyday 1B, and that is where he played in his MLB debut today. Ben Williamson plays a GREAT 3B, but he really doesn’t carry the power potential you’d like to see at a corner IF spot, and Seattle has already started tinkering with him at 2B. Then you have #27 prospect Luis Suisbel who plays about 47% at third, 27% first, 22% designated hitter at low A Modesto, but bat probably doesn’t carry him to the show.

Henseler actually reminds me of Williamson, but with more pop. He’s a solidly built 6’1″/215lb athlete hitting .360/.465/1.220 with 22 HR, 56 RBI and a dead-even walk-to-strikeout rate.

#10.303 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

In addition to hunting LHP this draft; I’m also willing to pay premium prices for bullpen velo. Gordon is a 6’5″/195lb closer for the Tigers touching 97mph presently with the frame to get that ticked up to triple digits in the near future. Season line goes: 4.46 ERA, 1.340 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, and 11 saves in 21 appearances. He will only be 21 when his birthday hits this Friday, and so this may be a guy that needs somewhat overslot to sign away from his senior season.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon State, Jacob Kmatz

After paying premium prices for a few relief arms top 10; these next few rounds I’m going to be hunting value starting pitching. This is the range Seattle has really gone hard on pitching the last two years. This is where they found Logan Evans last year. This is where they drafted Troy Taylor and Tyler Cleveland in 2022.

The first of this group is the Beaver starter Kmatz. He’s 6’3″/210lbs with a fastball that currently only sits 92mph, but it plays up with his ability to locate it up, down, in, out. And then he has probably the best true curveball I’ve seen in this class. There’s a cutter, a change, and a slider, but none are shown enough to really get a feel for ranking order. On the year Kmatz is at a 3.29 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 9.7 SO/9, but as I’ve watched both of his postseason starts to this point; his strikeout rate is climbing as he has struck out or 4 or 5 of the first 6 batters in each game.

#12.363 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia is a pick I make while simply following the numbers. The results are above average, while most of the stuff is truly just average. He’s a 6’4″/218lb lefty with a 3.64 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, only 1.9 BB/9 while eating up a lot of innings (89.0) for the Cowboys. The upside here is probably Marco Gonzales, but in a situation where Marco is your fifth starter; you’d probably take that.

#13.393 – RHP, UCSB, Ryan Gallagher

Gallagher is the righthanded version of Garcia. There’s something he’s doing that hitters are struggling with, and it leads to a line of a 2.22 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 9.7 SO/9 in 89.0 innings. He’s 6’3″/195lbs, and so there is some thought the frame could add some muscle, and with that maybe he adds some velocity.

#14.423 – OF, Evansville, Mark Shallenberger

Shallenberger is sort of a bad body, 6’2″/220lb lefthanded outfielder, that is also one of the most disciplined hitters in the country with a strikeout rate somewhere in the 8th percentile. He’s hitting .381/.521/1.219 this year with 17 HR, 84 RBI. He also plays a solid leftfield, defensively. Not a sexy pick without a super high ceiling, but I like the high floor he brings.

#15.453 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

Wilson marks another shot at a lefthanded pitcher, but he brings a bit of a different profile. Not a starter, not a closer, Wilson is one of the top 2 or 3 lefthanded long-relievers in the country. He’s 6’3″/225lbs, coming up on his 24th birthday in December, and posted a 4.85 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, and 13.0 SO/9 in 27 relief appearances that netted 59.1 innings (an average of 2+ innings per appearance).

#16. 483 – RHP, Louisiana, JT Etheridge

Etheridge, with his big, high-cut 6’6″/225lb frame, kind of reminds me of former Mariner reliever Carter Capps. Or maybe if you squinted, and he performs absolutely unbelievably, you could pull a Jonathan Papelbon comp. The numbers here aren’t spectacular: 5.51 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9, but he’s also taking 14.3 SO/9 with a pretty good 96mph fastball and plus slider combination.

#17. 513 – SS, Drew Vogel

In one (or both) of my previous 2024 mocks; I was essentially forcing a shortstop pick. Because it’s generally good business to draft from the stereotypically best, most-athletic position group in the game. But Seattle is absolutely thick with shortstop prospects: Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Felnin Celesten, Dawel Joseph. The picks we make at shortstop now will more than likely be the second baseman of the future, or eventual trade bait. So here, I’m just looking to find a guy with decent present skills, and enough upside to take a flyer on.

Vogel is a 6’1″/195lb righty that has hit .331/.441/1.097 with 20 HR, 61 RBI and 16×17 in SB. He plays a pretty good defensive SS, as well.

#18. 543 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor has a similar story as Vogel, but at 1B. Good glove (arguably the best 1B defender I’ve found this class), good athlete (15×17 in SB), and enough hitting to possibly make it to the show. He’s listed 6’3″/215lbs and hitting .402/.484/1.270 from the left side, with 19 HR and 80 RBI.

#19. 573 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

Schiavone is probably the second-best defensive catcher I’ve seen this year behind Grant Magill, but Schiavone is bringing a bit more hitting upside than Magill. I watched one of James Madison’s CWS regional games, and in that one game I got to see Schiavone hit a homerun, steal a base, and back-pick a runner off of SECOND base. He hit .284/.400/1.020 with 18 HR, 51 RBI and 9 SB this year. Oh, and his caught-stealing rate was north of 35%.

#20.603 – RHP, WKU, Mason Burns

Looking over the totality of the mock up to this point, I decided I wanted this last pick to be another pitcher to move the overall breakdown to 11 pitchers, 9 hitters. Burns is a 6’3″/215lb closer for the Hilltoppers, who (IIRC) led the country in saves with 15 in 28 appearances. Only a 4.00 ERA, 1.472 WHIP, and 10.0 hits allowed per 9; I’m including Burns for his respectable 13.0 SO/9, but even moreso because his personality kind of reminded me of Paul Sewald.

Mariner mock 2

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

The Mariners changed their draft strategy maybe three years ago, their new process is failing in front of us, and nobody is really talking about it. And, no, I don’t mean the change they made where they started drafting prep hitters in the early rounds starting in 2021.

Seattle changed the way they evaluate pitching around that same time, and we’re facing a dearth of MLB-caliber pitching prospects across the farm system. Seattle holds 4 members of the MLB top 100 prospects, and all four are position players. Seattle’s top 30 team prospects are position players from #1-#11, and only six pitchers in their top 20. Two of the pitchers in the M’s top six pitching prospects (Teddy McGraw and Cole Phillips) have never thrown a pitch at the professional level due to injury, and a third (Taylor Dollard) has been sidelined with injury since April 2023. This means that there aren’t many reinforcements available in AAA, and very little in AA.

Taking a look at the Tacoma Rainiers roster…they have zero pitching “prospects” (with Emerson Hancock graduated from rookie status), and their starting rotation is comprised of 27 year old Jhonathan Diaz, 36 year old Casey Lawrence, 36 year old Dallas Keuchel, 35 year old Michael Mariot, 26 year old Levi Stoudt, and the recently demoted 25 year old Hancock.

The AA Arkansas Travelers roster holds #19 prospect Logan Evans (huge buzz and a 1.60 ERA over 39.1 innings), #21 Jimmy Joyce (recently returned from injury and holding an 8.31 ERA in 2 starts for Arkansas), #27 reliever Troy Taylor (only 3.0 IP after recent promotion from Everett), and #30 Reid VanScoter (3.70 ERA across 8 starts). It’s hard for me to see Joyce or VanScoter as anything much more than a Levi Stoudt level talent.

I don’t quite understand the change Seattle made in how they evaluate pitching prospects for the draft. My sense is that their old method targeted guys that had innate ability to “control the zone”. Guys like Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Dollard came out of college averaging 2.0, 0.6, 1.1, 1.3 walks per 9 innings respectively. In 2021, Bryce Miller came out averaging 5.9 BB/9. In 2023, their top pitching draftpick Teddy McGraw had 4.84 BB/9, 6th-rounder Brody Hopkins had 7.33 BB/9, 11th-rounder Brandyn Garcia 4.74 BB/9, and 12th-rounder Logan Evans was 3.49 BB/9.

So, they’ve stopped caring about control. What they’ve replaced control with; I’m not sure. Velo? Spin rate? IVB? Some combo of a couple things? Probably. Whatever it is; it makes it very difficult to replicate in home mock drafting.

In addition to the lack of pitching talent at the high levels of the minors; you should note that NONE of the guys I’ve mentioned so far were drafted by Seattle out of high school. The Dipoto regime has NEVER developed a pitcher from high school up to the majors across 8 draft cycles.

Their success rate on high school drafted position players isn’t much better. This is why, when I see Jim Callis’ recent MLB mock draft from a few days ago that has Seattle drafting prep shortstop Theo Gallen and includes a note that the M’s “also are kicking the tires on the top prep arms as well,” it kinda scares me. In no way, shape, or form, should Seattle be trusted to evaluate, draft, and develop a pitcher directly out of high school. Do some self-scouting guys. You suck at this.

I should also point out that Callis in 2023 mock drafts did, correctly, put Seattle on drafting Colt Emerson, and also projected they would draft three prep players with all of their three first round picks last year.

I don’t think I objected to that process last year as it was a very good draft for prep players. The eventual draft results in 2023 had 13 high school players drafted top 30 overall. This 2024 class the major outlets have zero prep players in the top 8, only 3 in the top 15 (where Seattle would pick), and only 9 projected in the top 30.

The other thing about high school players in 2024 that nobody is talking about; is the still-developing way NIL rights will affect the signability of prep guys. There has ALWAYS been a need for teams to go over-slot on high school draftees, but will those figures increase after another year of college baseball teams learning how to manipulate the NIL system to get their recruits to campus? If a top prospect can get $1mill in NIL going to campus; is he going to want $5mill to sign with MLB team directly out of HS? It’s a slippery slope.

Ultimately, although Callis’ intel may be correct on Seattle’s intentions; they may not be able to execute them due to lack of inventory, and cost to sign. They may be forced to pivot to drafting a college player. We should all be okay with this as this is a strong college class.

The top high school player this year is SS Konnor Griffin, who is an absolute monster at 6’4″/215lbs. There’s no way he falls to #15. The next two prep players on big boards are SS Bryce Rainer and RHP William Schmidt…neither of whom I like. The next guy up is LHP Cam Caminiti. I really like Cam, and Callis also noted in his mock that he “might not make it further than the Mariners at #15.” So there would appear to be interest on Seattle’s side, but insert previous caveat on the M’s inability to develop prep pitching.

Callis has Seattle taking a slight reach on #26 prospect, Texas prep MIF Theo Gillen, which we have to take seriously. I don’t love Gillen. There’s a neg on him that he doesn’t have the arm to stick at SS, and likely ends up at 2B. I also kinda don’t love the intangibles make-up on him. I would prefer to offer up SS Wyatt Sanford. He’s also a reach as the #35 player on the MLB board, but Sanford is one of the better defenders in the class, who should definitely stick at SS.

Just as a quick aside…is Seattle really going to draft a lefty-hitting high school shortstop for a third consecutive year?? In addition to the two highly rewarded international signees of the last two years: Felnin Celesten and Dawel Joseph. All of these acquisitions mean that four of Seattle’s top seven prospects are shortstops, and seven of their top sixteen players have some SS experience. That strategy works when drafting pitchers across a 3-4 year stretch, as you’re gonna need five starters in a rotation. But you can only start one shortstop. At some point, you’re moving like 3-4 of these guys to other positions or using them as trade bait. I don’t know.

#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti

This is not what I would do. I would draft the best college pitcher still available on my board because the M’s CAN develop that. This is a compromise of the intel that Jim Callis mentioned, filtered through the logic that Seattle is actually pretty well stocked-up on shortstop prospects, plus the knowledge that Seattle’s major league rotation is pretty well set until Luis Castillo’s contract gets closer to expiring in like 2027, and so the Mariners can afford to take a slower-developing arm. Plus, if one of the top 3-4 high school players were to fall to #15, it is more likely to be a pitcher, as MLB knows prep pitching is far more temperamental than prep hitting. The first prep arm drafted last year came off at #8 overall, and the second HS pitcher didn’t come off until #33 overall.

Caminiti is actually one of the younger players in this draft, as he won’t turn 18 until August, and re-classified from 2025 class to this year. This could also suggest a higher willingness to sign, rather than go to his college commitment at LSU. He’s trying to get SOMEWHERE a year earlier than he was supposed to.

He’s currently 6’2″/205 and touching 97mph from the southpaw side. He’s got a very good slider, and third and fourth offerings of change and curve (no order). In terms of high school pitcher, I feel a little better that this is a safer pick than most. Seattle might still fuck it up, but in my opinion Cam would be the best attempt at the worst strategy.

#2.55 – SS, Boswell HS, Sawyer Farr

My original plan was to take the best college pitcher available in the 1st, then to draft a prep shortstop in the 2nd…while researching for that strategy I found Sawyer, and I really like the profile. He’s a 6’5″/180lb shortstop that can switch-hit, and I love the intangibles. The fundamentals he has for all five tools are fantastic. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, and I think that’s a legit concern. Bonus slot for this pick is $1,641,900, and if Seattle can save enough in other rounds to bump that up to $2mill; I think they can get him signed.

#3.91 – RHP, Mississippi St, Nate Dohm

In my previous mock I had Seattle taking Dohm in the 4th round. I was a little concerned about Dohm’s health, as it had been some time since he had pitched, but as of today Dohm made a couple appearances for the Bulldogs on May 14th and again May 18th out of the bullpen. If he had pitched more innings this year at even a fraction of the efficacy he’s had in his limited work; we’d potentially be talking about a 1st round guy. So I’m glad to bump him up from the 4th round to the 3rd.

#4.121 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak

This is an interesting one. I think Seattle should take some picks this year simply to target potential fast-moving bullpen arms. The 4th round may be high to start doing that, but Zsak is technically a redshirt freshman who will turn 21 (and therefore draft-eligible) on July 12th. So he’s got a TON of eligibility remaining, and it may take a decent bonus to sign him. Media outlets have him ranked as more of an 11th-15th round player on day 3 of the draft, so you could take a few different strategies to accomplish that. You could take him somewhere late on day 2 (rounds 8-10) and try to give him, say, $200k overslot money, or you could take him in an earlier round, give him $100k underslot for that round, but it still ends up more money than he’d get on day 3.

Performance-wise, Zsak is a 6’3″/185lb lefty with 4 starts and 15 relief appearances in 2024, posting a 4.11 ERA, 10.0 SO/9 and a 1.200 WHIP. You could try to take some time with him and develop him to start, but I think he might be MLB-ready by 2026 if you let him relieve.

#5.154 – RHP, Arkansas, Brady Tygart

Tygart is one of a few picks in this mock where I’m consciously going away from my own pitching metric, that no longer aligns with the M’s draft tendencies, and trying to latch onto something that Seattle IS using to identify their pitching picks. It’s a pretty big guess, though.

Tygart is a 6’2″/215lb starter this year for the Razorbacks. In 2022 he pitched as the team’s closer where some of his pitching stats actually looked better, including his SO/9 (12.2 as a closer in 2022, down to 10.5 as a starter in 2024). I think you keep him in the rotation in the immediate future, but you know the bullpen is also an option.

#6.183 – OF, Presbyterian, Joel Dragoo

Dragoo is a 6’1″/210lb, righty swinging, centerfielder hitting .413/.518/1.328 with 17 HR, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 54 games. He checks a lot of boxes across all toolsets.

#7.213 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

Collins is one of the best hitters in the country this year, and even using a higher pick on him would be justified. I’m slotting him here as a senior-sign candidate. He’s 6’3″/236lbs, currently playing 1B but with some experience catching and playing outfield for Georgia, but the bat plays wherever. Hitting .361/.586/1.390 with 18 HR, 52 RBI and 50 BB; Collins is the Bulldog leadoff man setting the table ahead of phenom Charlie Condon. I’m not sure why Georgia has gone so far away from letting him catch, but the idea that there’s a power-hitting, lefthanded catcher is part of this profile is super intriguing for me.

#8.243 – 3B, Penn, Wyatt Henseler

Henseler is one of my favorite players in this class. He’s 6’1″/210lb righty that plays a great defensive third base. He’s been hitting .367/.475/1.259 with 21 HR, 51 RBI in 45 games in the Ivy League this year. He has a transfer commit to move on to Texas A&M for a graduate year, but he’s going to be 23 years old in August. As a senior, you could try to underslot him, but in this case I wouldn’t. Just give him exactly the slot of $212,900 for this pick.

#9.273 – SS, Murray St, Drew Vogel

Vogel is another senior player. Actually, it’s worth mentioning that this draft class has an insane number of senior options. Backlog of Covid redshirts? Guys getting NIL money and deciding to stay in school? Not sure. That’s potentially a benefit for MLB teams looking for discounts for their bonus pool, but it may hurt them if they try to draft guys from the junior, or even redshirt junior, class(es).

Anyways, Vogel is 6’2″/195lbs, hits righthanded, plays a solid shortstop, and is hitting .339/.451/1.130 with 20 HR, 60 RBI, 16 SB in 55 games.

#10.303 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green

Miller-Green is an absolute unit of a guy at 6’5″/226lbs. He’s been a two-way player for Austin Peay, but his future is certainly with the bat where he’s primarily played RF. He’s hitting .395/.530/1.428 with 29 HR and 93 RBI in 54 games. Insane numbers. Even writing those out now makes me think this is too late to be drafting him. But he will be 24 in September, so it’s a calculated risk. This guy is an exit velocity monster.

#11.333 – RHP, Oregon St, Jacob Kmatz

Kmatz is another guy I wouldn’t have mocked to Seattle three-ish years ago. I THINK he might be Seattle’s kind of guy currently, though. He’s 6’3″/210lbs, posting 3.48 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9 in 14 starts. It’s not a splashy line, but it fits with the M’s recent profile of early day three pitchers.

#12.363 – RHP, Clemson, Austin Gordon

Gordon is another of the similar profile of part-time starter, fuller-time reliever that I’ve taken a few times this mock. He’s 6’5″/195lbs with a pedestrian 5.10 ERA, 1.533 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9 and 9 saves in 5 starts and 12 relief appearances. His fastball is a present 97mph, and with the frame it’s easy to dream on 100mph.

#13.393 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

It’s a pointed intent of mine to force more lefthanded pitching talent into the Mariner system. Wilson marks a slightly different profile of lefty. He has 25 appearances this year, all of them out of the bullpen, but he has zero saves. Those 25 appearances have added up to 57.0 innings, which means that his average appearance lasts 2.1 innings. He’s more of the long-relief, middle-innings type who has a 1.175 WHIP, and 13.3 SO/9.

#14.423 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia

Again, another stab at some lefthanded pitching. Garcia is more of the “crafty lefty” profile, but he’s 6’4″/218lbs with a 3.61 ERA,1.112 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9 and only 2.1 BB/9 in 14 starts this year. If he can add some velo, I could see him be a very solid SP3 in time. Well worth the value this late as a guy turning 23 on Wednesday.

#15.453 – RHP, Western Kentucky, Mason Burns

I had originally sketched in a position player to this pick, but after looking at the entirety of all 20 rounds; I felt like I needed another pitcher. The easiest guy to cut was a utililty infielder.

I literally just wanted to find some true closer options. I liked Oregon State’s Bridger Holmes, but he was off the board. I liked the lefty Ben Abeldt out of TCU, but he just had slightly lesser metric scores than Burns.

Mason is leading the country in saves, and at 6’3″/210lbs he mixes a 96mph fastball with a solid slider to post 4.18 ERA, 12.8 SO/9, and 15 saves in 27 appearances. Seems to be a bit of a fun character, too.

#16.483 – 1B, Northeastern, Tyler Macgregor

Macgregor is another corner infielder that has come through the Ivy League en route to Northeastern where he’s hitting .405/.485/1.287 with 19 HR, a staggering 80 RBI, 14 SB in 53 games this year. I’d expect him to be drafted much earlier than this if he wasn’t turning 24 in July. Oh, and he also might be the best defensive 1B in this class.

#17.513 – C, James Madison, Jason Schiavone

In my previous mock for this year; I was kind of forcing a catcher pick much earlier in order to get a decent bat out of him, but after deeper consideration, I think I’d prefer to get a really good receiver and basesteal eliminator, and hope on the bat side.

Schiavone is a 6’2″/185lb catcher with a .278/.391/1.030 slash with 17 HR, 45 RBI, 6 SB and a season .990 fielding percentage, and who has caught 38% of would-be basestealers this year.

#18.543 – OF, Morehead St, Ryley Preece

Preece is a holdover from multiple mocks of mine going back to last year. I like the profile. He’s a switch-hitter with a .353/.491/1.157 line, 19 HR, 61 RBI, 19 SB this year. He plays a very solid outfield, as well.

#19.573 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll

Another senior year player, Driscoll is a 6’5″/225lb starter with a 3.26 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, only 9.0 SO/9 but also only 1.8 BB/9 across 66.1 innings. Not a ton of upside, but I think he could eat a lot of innings in the minors.

#20.603 – C, Indiana St, Grant Magill

Magill is, arguably, the best defensive catcher in the country. I believe he won the college Gold Glove last year. He’s got a .992 season fielding percentage, and has caught 40% of basestealers this year. The bat is really not great…one of the worst in my database of about 400 players…at .285/.332/.757 with 6 HR, 42 RBI in 49 games. (It’s not a terrible bat, just the low end of my metric looking for projectable hitters.) I’d really just like to have Magill working with the system’s young pitchers.

May Mariner mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

Goodbye NFL Draft…hello MLB Draft.

For whatever reason, I’ve been getting so much more into the MLB Draft than the NFL Draft the last, say, three draft cycles. The Mariners under the current front office; have had three pretty distinct phases of their drafting. When they first got here they went after college bats in Kyle Lewis and then Evan White, followed by a stretch where they went super aggressively towards college pitching with the likes of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock all in the 1st round. We’re seeing a lot of the fruits of that stretch of drafting on the MLB club right now.

The third significant phase of drafting for Seattle has become the high school position players. This run goes: Harry Ford, Cole Young, Colt Emerson as first picks, and add in the compensatory first rounders: Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete.

I don’t know why they seem to make these runs, but they have shown to last three years. Personally, I like the idea of flipping back to a run on college pitching for the next three years to back-fill behind what is currently in MLB. Certainly, in the 2024 draft class there appears to be a VERY strong class of both pitching and hitting coming out of college. If you make an analogy to the NFL draft where we just saw 15 picks dedicated to offense before the first defensive player was chosen; we may see 15 college players before any from the high school ranks this year. Maaaaybe that creates value if Seattle were to continue drafting high school bats, but for now I’m gonna look to go college pitching.

Just as a quick aside…Seattle should never draft from high school pitching. What are we on 7-8 draft cycles with this front office? And how many drafted high school pitchers have they developed up to MLB? I think the answer is zero. I don’t know what or why that is, but let’s assume it is a thing, and adjust accordingly.

I was annoyed at the time of the deal, and I’m reminded again now that Seattle included the compensatory pick #68 in the trade with the White Sox for the yet-to-pitch-for-Seattle Gregory Santos. This leaves the Seattle draft board as: #1.15, #2.55, #3.91, #4.121, #5.154, #6.183, #7.213, #8.243, #9.273, #10.303, and every 30th pick thereafter for twenty rounds. I will only be mocking a percentage of those picks today.

#1.15 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman

There are three pitchers projecting to be picked in the top12 overall, and per an analytic I came up with a few years ago; all three of them deserve to be there (Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage). After that there’s a bit of a gap to the next tier of college guys: Brody Brecht, Jonathan Santucci, Bryce Cunningham. That trio is being over-valued. On my board Ryan Prager, Ryan Forcucci, and Holman score higher than the prior-mentioned trio, but are being projected closer to Seattle’s second round pick range.

I would really like to see the M’s get a truly good lefthanded starter (or two) out of this draft because that would force visiting teams into more of a righthanded lineup, which would play down in the marine-layer of the early season in T-mobile Park, which makes Prager intriguing. I’m not doing that in this mock because when I add a filter of subjectivity to the objectivity of my pitching metric; I like Holman better. And there might be a chance at a lefty comparable to Prager later.

Holman is a 6’4″/201lb righthanded starter posting a 2.63 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 4.19 SO/BB in the notoriously difficult SEC. I see other pitchers with higher velo numbers, but I just like Holman’s pitchability and repertoire better. Batters do not pick up on his stuff at all. And I think MLB pitching programs can add velo in the minors.

#2.55 – 2B, Alabama, Gage Miller

The college position players in this draft are absolutely insane. When I analyzed the top 150 players in the draft; the top 6 hitters from MLB’s rankings also scored in the top 9 bats in my hitting metric. Those guys absolutely deserve to be where they are ranked. If any of Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, Jac Caglianone, Nick Kurtz, Braden Montgomery, JJ Wetherholt should fall to #15…you sprint to the podium. (FYI: The top bat outside the top 15 that scored worthy of the #15 pick was FSU outfielder James Tibbs.)

I’ve done this hitting metric at least since 2022, and in that draft class Tyler Locklear was one of the highest scorers period, and certainly the highest still available when Seattle picked him at #58. Gage Miller has a similar profile this year. Miller is a 6’0″/200lb college 3b, with some questions on his future defensive position. But the bat is the carrying tool. He’s hitting .386/.483/1.267 for Alabama with 18 HR and 47 RBI in 43 games. These numbers make Miller the 10th-best college bat in my database, but the 2nd-best still on the board. It’s a great value.

#3.91 – RHP, Presbyterian, Daniel Eagen

As I sort of look at the broad strokes of players available at each draft pick; I begin to lean into specific position groups at each pick, so that if you don’t get THIS pitcher, you get a similar value pitcher at the same pick. For this mock, I’m really liking the idea of going Pitcher, Hitter, Pitcher, Pitcher, Hitter. That’s just the way the waves kinda look to me.

Eagen is one of the tougher guys to pull the trigger on this mock because there is so little available footage of him that is also current to this year, and not from when he was in high school. But, at the same time, that can also be a way you find value, turning to small school players.

Eagen is a 6’4″/200lb righty that has posted 2024 numbers of 2.98 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 15.3 SO/9, 4.14 SO/BB over 10 starts.

#4.122 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm

This pick reminds me a little of the pick of Teddy McGraw last year in that there’s some degree of concern with the health. Dohm is a 6’4″/210lb starter with only five starts in 2024. He made starts in four consecutive weeks from February to early March, then missed a month with reports it was actually a lower-body injury, came back to make a start on April 7th that lasted only 12 pitches, and has been M.I.A. since then. It’s almost impossible to find truly honest reports of injuries in college baseball, so I have very little insight as to what is going on there.

Before the injury; Dohm was touching 98-99mph in relief role last year. Numbers this year: 1.48 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9, 8.00 SO/BB across 24.1 innings.

#5.154 – C, Davidson, Jacob Friend

Every year there needs to be a few things standard in a draft class: you need a shortstop and he’s probably coming out of high school, and you need a catcher or two. In terms of the catchers, I’ll always include my standard hitting breakdown, but then I like to add in the element of their ability to catch basestealers.

Friend’s bat goes: .285/.483/1.068 with 10 homeruns, 27 RBI in 38 games, with a nice little 6×9 in stolen bases. The caught-stealing is not exceptional, but most of the better rates are guys getting picked top 2 rounds. Nice little bonus that Friend is a lefty-hitting backstop.

#6.183 – SS/RHP, Cedar Park Christian HS, Adam Haight

I went through this entire mock draft without this pick, but I got to the end and I didn’t have a shortstop of any kind. There are basically zero interesting shortstops coming out of college this year. And Seattle has not drafted ANY high school players past the 9th round since the draft was reshaped during, and after, the Covid year to 5 rounds and then 20 rounds where it remains today. I don’t know the exact mechanics of that…they used to draft high school players in rounds 21-40 back when they existed, but now I guess they need to be a bit more efficient and the fat they cut was late round high school players who NEVER develop into anything.

Part of the philosophy of this draft, for me, was to get back to some solid college pitching prospects, so I didn’t want to drop a pitcher to add a shortstop. The second round makes some sense to swap a college bat for a prep bat (a la Edwin Arroyo in 2021), but I just like where Seattle has been at drafting college bats in the 2nd round last year in Ben Williamson (hitting .330/.407/.892 in Everett), and in 2022 with Tyler Locklear (hitting .319/.451/.990 in Arkansas. Arroyo, for the record, traded to Cincinnati in the Castillo deal has not played this year while being on 60-day IL, and was last seen playing 4 games at AA level last year.

So I kinda chose the draft range that I wanted to swap out for a shortstop, and then looked for the player that fit the round.

Literally the first player I looked at was Adam Haight based only on a big board of draft prospects. Then I looked up the player on twitter and found the below video of him hitting a homerun in TMobile Park just a couple weeks ago, then I found out his high school is actually up in Snohomish here in WA. It just kind of made sense, as a guy that might not require a huge signing bonus to play for his local team.

#7.213 – DH, Campbell, Grant Knipp

Knipp is another pick, like Gage Miller, where there are questions about future defensive position. I generally prefer to ignore that question in favor of a bat that might actually progress to a relevant MLB hitter. Knipp is a 6’2″/220lb sometime catcher that probably just needs to be a DH where his .402/.547/1.576 slash with 18 homeruns and 46 RBI in 29 games. The power is the carrying feature, but he’s got a decent eye as well.

This pick also represents a bit of a senior signing with the option to go underslot for Knipp who will be turning 23 year sold this year.

#8.243 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia

Garcia is a 6’4″/218lb lefthanded starter with senior classification. He’s posting season numbers of 3.98 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 12.1 SO/9. I, personally, would like to see Seattle make some stronger efforts to create better right/left balance in the rotation (and to lesser degree the ‘pen) going forward. I think this matters for the park factors at TMobile. It is to the team’s detriment that they aren’t able to force visiting clubs into more of a righthanded heavy lineup at any point in a homestand. This needs to change.

Garcia is one of the top three lefthanded starters in my pitching metric this draft, and top 10 arms overall. He ranks below only first rounder Hagen Smith (and one other guy in the top two rounds), and he ranks ahead of first rounder Jonathan Santucci, second rounders Carter Holton and Gage Jump. I love the value play here.

#9.273 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins

This pick is another sticking strictly to my hitting metric. Miller, Knipp, and Collins all kind of fall into the same basket of guys that I’m overlooking defensive position in favor of the bat. But after Seattle has spent the last few drafts taking younger, more athletic up the middle players in Harry Ford, (Arroyo), Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo, Aidan Smith, so I’m thinking we have put ourselves in the position to try to find some corner IF/DH thumpers in this draft.

Collins is a 6’3″/236lb lefty-hitting C/1B/DH hitting .352/.591/1.369 with 14 HR, 43 RBI in 39 games this year. Another senior sign guy.

It is worth pointing out that last year, Seattle changed their draft bonus strategy slightly. In most years, Seattle would draft someone (or multiple guys) in their first 10 round picks that they sign for like $5,000-$20,000 in bonus money. This would save them anywhere from $145k-$470k in bonus pool allotment (depending on the round), which they would then redirect to some of their high school players.

In 2023, the low bonus amount they gave to any of their top 10 round picks was $75,000. I just like this as a human decency decision. The yearly pay for minor league baseball players is shockingly bad, and many of them have to make their post-draft signing bonus last for years. So it’s criminal to only give a guy $5,000. But there’s also the plausibility that giving 2-4 guys a decent, but still underslot, signing bonus (instead of one highway robbery) can give you 2-4 better shots at better players, while still giving you the bonus pool flexibility you need.

#10.303 – RHP, William and Mary, Nate Knowles

Another recent development in the post-covid Mariners draft ecosystem is that they will absolutely pile on pitching picks in rounds 10-14. In the last three drafts, Seattle has picked pitchers in 11 of 15 of those slots. And they will make those picks from any size of baseball program. Schools like: Illinois State, Campbell, UC Irvine, UNC Pembroke, Central Arkansas, Chipola Junior College.

Knowles is a 6’0″/205lb righty starter that has a 1.91 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 12.5 SO/9 across 16 starts and 61 innings in 2024. He’s actually one of the younger players in this mock as a draft-eligible 20 year old college junior.

#11.333 – LHP, Florida State, Carson Dorsey

Dorsey is a 6’1″/180lb lefty that I think I had in mock drafts last year as a JUCO player. He’s now moved up to a power 5 program where he’s been mixed in as sometime starter, and mostly long-relief (5 starts in 16 appearances), where he’s holding a 3.66 ERA, 1.393 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9.

#12.363 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson

As I mentioned earlier, I’m really trying to make a conscious effort to splash in lefty pitchers. Wilson is a reliever only at Charlotte where he’s posting a 3.98 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 13.5 SO/9 in 22 appearances.

#13.393 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll

Driscoll is 6’5″/225lbs and pitching a 2024 line of 3.42 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9 and only 1.6 BB/9.

#14.423 – OF, Penn State, Adam Cecere

This might be unlikely as Cecere is having a great year in his first year at Penn State, hitting .338/.495/1.193 with 13 homeruns and 41 RBI in 41 games. His big negative is that he’s already 23 years old as of January.

#15.453 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece

Preece is another guy that I clocked last year, who either didn’t get drafted or didn’t sign, and this year he’s playing even better. He’s at .381/.514/1.236 with 18 HR, 54 RBI, 19×23 SB in 48 games.

Draft week mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We are mere days away from the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, so this will probably be my final Seahawks seven round mock of the year. Barring something crazy (like a trade) coming out before the draft.

A few things have changed recently. The first came about after listening to John Schneider’s most-recent radio appearance on 710. John mentioned how, in an average draft year, there are usually 15-20 true first round grades. Which puts a 16th overall pick squarely in range of getting a true first round player by sticking and picking. And that may be what Seattle does. They certainly have brought in a few guys that project to be picked around 16 as official 30 visits. But something else occurred to me…this expected early run on QB’s, some of whom may not rank as 1st round grades for Seattle, will push some of the 1st round grades down a couple spots. Which, then, means you get a 1st round player down into the 17-22 pick range (if not deeper).

With this in mind; we still trade back the #16. But we trade it at a shallower range. Our first move is trading #16 to the Rams for their picks at #1.19 + #3.99 + #6.196. The Rams open the draft with 11 total picks, including two in the 3rd and four in the 6th, so they use their later 3rd and earliest 6th to move up three spots to draft DT Byron Murphy as heir-apparent to Aaron Donald. And the Seahawks get to reinforce their draft capital while still drafting a first round graded player.

The next move is a holdover from my previous mock. Trading DK Metcalf to the Chiefs for their first and third round picks (#1.32 + #3.95) and a third rounder in 2025. When I previously posed this trade I had comments that this was not enough for DK, and I had comments that this was too much. Which probably means it’s about the right return value. In 2022, Philadelphia acquired DK’s former teammate AJ Brown for the #1.18 + #3.101 picks. This is pretty similar return for a guy two years older than when that trade happened. Shortly after trading DK away, I think Seattle goes out and signs Chase Claypool to pair with the freshly-signed Laviska Shenault and the second year Jake Bobo to give Seattle some WR size to go with the tacticians Lock and JSN.

Trade #3 is to immediately flip the #32 pick to Washington for their picks at #2.40 + #3.100. Seahawks third round would then look like: #81, KC’s #95, LAR’s #99, WSH #100 plus #102 in the early 4th.

Trade #4 is to move UP by sending Baltimore pick #95, #100, #118 for their pick at #2.62. This trade is reminiscent of Seattle moving up in 2015 to secure Tyler Lockett at pick #69. That move cost Seattle #95, #112, #167, #181.

And, finally, trade #5 has Seattle moving down pick #102 to land pick #123 and #127 from Houston.

Final 2024 draft board:
#1.19 (18 picks before)
#2.40 (21 picks between)
#2.62 (22 picks between)
#3.81 (19 picks between)
#3.99 (18 picks between)
#4.123 (24 picks between)
#5.127
#6.179
#6.192
#6.196
#7.235

I wasn’t specifically seeking to create the spacing this made, but after seeing it all together; I loved it. A board like this would really open up the possibilities to go BPA throughout the draft. Let’s pick ’em.

#1.19 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton

There seems to be some recent groundswell for Seattle to stick and #16 and make their pick. I’m not sure they’re looking at the big picture. If you take a look at the compiled consensus mock draft sites; the top 16 holds four QB (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Mccarthy), three WR (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), three OT (Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu), three DE (Turner, Verse, Latu), two CB (Arnold, Mitchell), and one TE (Bowers). It doesn’t include the fifth QB (likely Penix), who is a very real possibility to go top 12. I really don’t see much of that list that is fat to be cut. Maybe a Laiatu Latu drops due to medicals. And maybe you split hairs and flip an OT or two, and see Fautanu go before Fuaga, eg.

This still presents a next three best available as DT Byron Murphy, WR Brian Thomas, OT Troy Fautanu/Taliese Fuaga. So, in theory, even at #20 I think Seattle is getting a first round grade player.

Murphy I am wholesale not interested in. I think there are some demons there that the media is not seeing. Plus, I don’t think the gap from Murphy to Jer’zhan Newton is that big. If Mike and John are really interested in a DT early; I’d rather take Newton plus the picks. Newton feels like Kenny Clark who came off at #27 in 2016 draft, but has played to the 16th-best career value of all players that draft.

This first round pick, to me, needs to be focused on finding a clean prospect. Clean film. Clean testing. Clean medicals. Clean character. To that end, I would really like to see it end up being amongst a group of Jared Verse, Troy Fautanu, and Graham Barton.

Fautanu (and to lesser extent Fuaga) would be really tough to pass on here. And, quite frankly, might be Seattle’s preference. Fautanu is SUCH a clean prospect in my mind. A very smart player, with zero character questions, Fautanu proved at the Combine he has OT length at 34 1/2″ arms and OT athleticism with his 5.01s forty at 317lbs.

To me, I just think the interior OL (especially Cnter) is the bigger need, but guard would not be something Seattle drafted in the 1st, only Center. I’m not sold that Olu Oluwatimi is a starter (team hasn’t seemed to think so, either), and I feel zero security in Nick Harris on a one-year deal. The team has, at least, shown enough confidence in Cross and Lucas to start them immediately since they joined the team. So, if we’re looking at drafting a Tackle, it’s most likely a commentary on Lucas’ longterm health prognosis.

But that’s also why Barton is such an interesting prospect. Barton has at least 34 starts at left tackle for Duke. He could, in theory, train up to move over to right tackle should Lucas’ health be a problem. Barton also made 5 starts at center for Duke in 2020 as a true freshman. He’s a very smart player with all kinds of all-academic accolades. He’s got great athleticism posting a 4.97s forty time at 6’5″/313lbs once he was able to test after coming back from injury. To me, this is an ideal Center candidate.

#2.40 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins

I’ve had Jenkins in previous mocks, and I’m coming back to him to close the year. His size and athleticism are very comparable to Byron Murphy…Murphy at 6’1″/297lbs, 32 3/8″ arms, 4.87s forty…Jenkins 6’3″/299lbs, 34″ arms, 4.91s forty. Texas had the NCAA’s #5 rush defense, Michigan had the NCAA’s #7 rush defense. Jenkins had both a pass-rush win rate and run-stop rate over 10%, which only two guys this draft had. Jenkins has got that NFL legacy bloodline, AND he will be familiar with the Mike Macdonald scheme. I love the fit…I hope we can get him.

#2.62 – DE, Utah, Jonah Elliss

I mentioned earlier that this mock represented a few changes in my approach. This one is that I’m changing my position on Seattle looking at DE. I had previously thought Seattle was in pretty good position with their DE room, and wouldn’t be looking to draft one. I now think that was wrong. There is interest, and we should be looking for the right fit.

Elliss is another NFL legacy player as the son of Luther Elliss and brother of Kaden. Kaden was actually in the Seahawks 30 visit list in 2019 as a linebacker out of University of Idaho.

Jonah had a 2023 season with 16.0 TFL and 12.0 sacks, plus 3 hurries. Those numbers came over 10 games, as he finished the year sidelined with an arm injury. The per-game rate of Elliss’ production had him on pace to lead the country in sacks (finished 7th in straight counting), and 4th in TFL pace. He’s a little undersized at 6’2″/248lbs, but has good length at 33″ arms. There’s an incomplete athletic testing profile on him, but he did post 38″ vert and 10’00” broad jumps at his pro day.

Elliss has a spin move that is an absolute weapon in his rush.

#3.81 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

I’m hoping the overall down opinion on this year’s linebacker and safety classes will allow some quality to still be available in the third round. The media seems to think Malik will be available much later than this, but personally I’d rather be able to pick him about 15 spots earlier than this. The value is somewhere in between Kevin Byard drafted at #64 and Justin Simmons at #98 in the same draft a few years back.

#3.99 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray

Cedric and Malik are two sides of the same coin. Both are high-floor players, with the chance to be foundational pieces due to their football IQ, high character, good production, and above average athleticism.

#4.123 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

I’m sticking with Milton. This draft has fewer certainties at QB then the collective even realizes. And if that is the case; I would rather draft a bunch of safer bet players at other positions, and wait for Milton late, to hit a tremendous overall draft value. Think Dak Prescott. And if a Dak comp doesn’t excite you…ask yourself who some of these other reachable QB’s resemble. Bo Nix to Russell Wilson, but you might have to draft him before the third. Michael Penix to Geno Smith, but Penix probably a 1st to Geno’s 2nd. Spencer Rattler to Gardner Minshew, but Rattler maybe day 2 to Minshew’s day 3.

#5.127 – OT, Penn State, Caedan Wallace

When a position group is as deep as OT is this year; there should be value well into the draft. If Seattle can find a guy like Brandon Coleman, Christian Jones, or Wallace in the 5th; they will have a nice hedge for Abe Lucas should he falter.

Wallace was the right tackle counterpart to Olu Fashanu for Penn State. He measured out at the combine as 6’5″/314lbs, 34″ arms, 5.15s forty, a 31″ vert and a 9’08” broad jump.

#6.179 – DT, Northern Iowa, Khristian Boyd

These 5th, 6th, 7th round picks are common spots for Seattle to pick guys from their official 30 visit list. Boyd was one of those guys this year. He’s a 6’3″/325lb DT with short arms (31 7/8″), no official forty time, and only a 28.5″ vert and 8’02” broad. Oh, and he’s a sixth-year senior. If he was more of a standout athlete, or had more production vs lower level competition (3.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL); I’d be concerned about him going earlier than this. He still might. But he is a project, so I think he might be here.

#6.192 – TE, Illinois, Tip Reiman

The Seahawks have seemed to kind of narrow-focus their TE searches in the past to the 4th-5th round range, so they may pull the trigger earlier than this. I just love the value of Reiman here. He’s a 6’5″/271lb brute at the spot, who ran a 4.64s forty with 33.5″ vert and 10’01” broad jump. I like the combo of in-line blocking and pass-catching he brings.

#6.196 – LB, Washington, Edefuan Ulofoshio

I noticed something on the film studying UW this year, and it led me to believe that Ede was the true leader of that National Championship game Husky team. And Ryan Grubb is gonna have the best intel in the league on him. In terms of public knowledge…Ulofoshio posted a Combine weigh-in of 6’1″/236lbs, with a 4.56s forty, and really strong 39.5″ vert and 10’08” broad jumps. Great athlete. Great leader. In a weird way, this pick reminds me of the Kam Chancellor pick.

#7.235 – RB, Georgia, Kendall Milton

I really wasn’t sure what to do with this last pick. Part of me wanted to double down at the safety spot. I could have gone WR since this draft is really missing one. I don’t have a specific reason to go RB. Maybe more of a process of elimination. WR is believed to be one of the deeper positions in the draft, and in Seattle’s history; they’ve had better luck with undrafted free agent WR than taking one in the 7th (or really any WR after the 4th round). And the team, under this mock projection, will have the recruiting talking point that they just traded DK and didn’t draft a WR in the actual draft, which means opportunity for an UDFA.

Maybe this pick is too similar to last year when the Hawks took Georgia RB Kenny Mcintosh in the 7th. Mcintosh was 6’0″/216lbs and ran a 4.62s forty after posting 829 yards rushing (5.53ypc) and 10 TD in 2022. Milton was 6’2″/225lbs and ran the same 4.62s forty. He ran for 790 yards (6.53ypc) and 14 TD last year. In spite of the slow forty time, Milton has some huge explosive runs on tape.

This, admittedly, would be a very hard draft to execute. All those trades are way harder to negotiate and finalize in reality than just running some draft pick numbers into a trade value calculator. The key is, really, trading DK Metcalf. The value he would bring in draft capital return instantly patches a lot of the holes created by trades for Leonard Williams and Sam Howell. Without that trade; you’re likely looking at trading farther back from #16, which could be catastrophic to getting an actual 1st round graded player.

Buuuutttttt…if executed, we’re looking at 3 new DL, 2 new OL…trench dogs!…2 LB, 1 DS, 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 RB. It would be a very strong first draft for John Schneider with Mike Macdonald.

SEaster Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I really wasn’t planning on doing another mock this soon after my last only 10 days ago, but that particular mock was a very specific exercise in drafting. This version I will be free to draft in any manner that I choose. I was also motivated last night when I saw the news of Chiefs’ WR Rashee Rice having some potential legal problems stemming from his car accident last night. I feel like John Schneider has a card up his sleeve that will reveal itself coming up here shortly.

To me, the biggest chit Schneider has in his coffer is DK. Top WR are frequently traded for compensation that starts with a 1st round pick and includes multiple picks thereafter. But WR is also not a position you want to be spending big cap dollars on when you don’t have a stacked roster and/or a true franchise QB. The Chiefs are, obviously, in a win-now state. They have a great roster, they have a league MVP QB…if there is a possibility of them losing their top WR to suspension of any significant length; this move would prevent them from the steep dropoff from Rashee Rice to Kadarius Toney in terms of production at the WR spot. So the move becomes DK to KC for picks #1.32 and #3.95 this year, plus the Chiefs’ 3rd round pick in 2025.

The next trade Seattle makes is still the same trade I’ve been mocking for months: Seattle’s #1.16 to Green Bay for their picks at #1.25 plus #2.58.

And I will make a third trade, moving the Chiefs’ 1st rounder to the Commanders for their picks at #2.40 plus #3.100.

After these three moves, Seattle’s draft board would look like this:

#1.25 (GB)
#2.40 (WSH from CHI)
#2.58 (GB)
#3.81 (NO)
#3.95 (KC)
#3.100 (WSH from SF)
#4.102 (WSH)
#4.118
#6.179 (WSH)
#6.192
#7.235

Let’s start picking.

#1.25 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton

I’ve had Barton in previous mock drafts, but I moved off of him when I was having to trade down further than this in order to replenish day 2 with more ammo. Having made the DK deal, I am able to stick and pick Barton here. According to reports from Duke Pro Day; Barton weighed in at 6’5″/313lbs with 33″ arms and ran a 40 yard time somewhere between 4.84 to 4.95 seconds. Either is a great time.

Schneider on one of his recent radio appearances talked about the over-drafting of offensive guards into the league…Barton would be a college left tackle that we project to move to center. So I don’t think those comments would apply to him. Plus, in the history of his time in Seattle; John has drafted an OL in the 1st round four times: Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Germain Ifedi, Charles Cross. That’s two instances of drafting pro left tackles and two instances of drafting a college tackle that Seattle moved to guard. I also love the possibility that Barton could maybe be insurance at right tackle should Abe Lucas’ health continue to be an issue.

#2.40 – DT, Texas, T’vondre Sweat

In many of my previous mocks I had Seattle going with DT Kris Jenkins around this range as a sort of mirroring of Justin Madubuike in Mike Macdonald’s previous scheme in Baltimore. After doing a bit more consideration; I think maybe the re-signing of Leonard Williams marks that same positioning that Madubuike would have. So what Seattle really might be looking for is a true nose.

Sweat is the truest of true noses in this draft. He grades out very well against the run last year, but also did surprisingly well in passrush. There has been some recent “report” that questions his work ethic and/or endurance. I don’t know about that. I don’t get that vibe from him. But, more importantly, there is actual hard numbers that Sweat played in 62 games for Texas over a five year stretch. The number of games Texas has played in the last five years? 62 games. That’s right, the big man has not missed a single game in five years. That is, in itself, its own kind of endurance.

Now, in terms of how Texas managed his snap counts across that time; I don’t have answers there. I wish I did. But, when you cross reference snap counts to the Baltimore defense from last year; a nose tackle in the Macdonald scheme would likely be targeted to play between 40-55% of snaps. And it’s probably the low end of that for Sweat as a rookie.

Getting the draft’s #1 nose tackle at #40 overall is actually pretty great value. The Bucs got their guy, Vita Vea, at #12 overall. Philly got Jordan Davis at #13 overall. Dallas drafted Mazi Smith last year at #26 overall. And, yes, there were differing levels of athlete within that group at different weigh-in sizes, but for me it’s still a mark inefficiency this year that allows Sweat to hold value.

#2.58 – WR, South Carolina, Xavier Legette

I haven’t mocked many WR to Seattle in my drafts this year. When I have, it has come in direct response to doing mock trades where DK Metcalf was dealt. Another reason that I’d welcome trading DK, in addition to the trade return, is that this is considered a very good WR class. There is potential we see a draft like we did in 2019 where the 2nd round looked like this:

2.36 Deebo Samuel
2.51 AJ Brown
2.56 Mecole Hardman
2.57 JJ Arcega Whiteside
2.59 Parris Campbell
2.62 Andy Isabella
2.64 DK Metcalf

This year those names could look like Malachi Corley, Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson, Keon Coleman, Ja’lynn Polk and Legette. I went with Legette because, if we’re losing a big-bodied WR, I would like to add a big-bodied WR. I think with the hip-drop tackle ban; you’re gonna want to have a 220+ lb WR going up against 195lb corners.

Legette actually compares pretty closely to AJ Brown. Brown was 6’1″/226lbs with a 4.49s forty, 36.5″ vert, 10’00” broad. Legette is 6’1″/221lbs, with a 4.39s forty, 40″ vert, and 10’6″ broad.

#3.81 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Malik is a personal favorite for two years. I REALLY want to get him. This may not be high enough to still get him. I would be very willing to sacrifice Legette and look for alternatives at WR in order to secure Malik at #58. But, for now, I’m not seeing a huge spike on him nationally after running a 4.52s forty at Wake pro day. It still may be coming, which is why I preface the willingness to make a move on him in the 2nd.

#3.95 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray

Between their free agency signings and the reported prospects coming in for official visits; I think I’m starting to get a sense of what Mike Macdonald is looking for at linebacker. I think Payton Wilson should be monitored, but I don’t love the price he’ll probably command. I think there are also guys that should be available into day three that will come in to play later as options for double-dipping.

#3.100 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter

I had Zinter in my mock a few months back, and then went away from him in favor of OL with versatility to play right tackle in case Abe Lucas becomes an issue. Having locked down Graham Barton, who can play OT, in the 1st round; I’m coming back to Zinter as a true guard. I just want ZZ to be the leader he is in our OL room. We’ve got good athletes, we’ve got some guys with a bit of nastiness…I think we need that leader.

#4.102 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

Nobody likes Joe Milton. I. DON’T. GIVE. A. FUCK. This is a value play. There is nothing wrong with getting a guy with Milton’s physical tools in the early 4th round. Teams miss on QB’s in the first round every year. You have mitigated the risk by getting him this late. This is great value.

Schneider has talked ad nauseum for years about the Green Bay philosophy to draft a QB every year (and the inherit shame that he’s only drafted two in 14 years). While I think that is excessive, I legitimately think there could be value in a philosophy to draft a QB every other year. A team should have one QB on their rookie deal at all times. Paying a guy $5-8 mill per year to be a backup when you’re also paying your starter $25-40 mill is poor roster construction.

If Seattle doesn’t make this move, I hope they draft John Rhys Plumlee in the 6th. I want them to have options to trade Geno Smith in August, and get their cap flexibility in better shape into 2025 and beyond.

#4.118 – DE, Grayson Murphy

I’m generally in favor of Seattle passing on DE this year. I think the dropoff after the 1st round is pretty severe. Murphy is a guy that is somewhat flying under the radar this year. He was essentially 3rd in priority in the UCLA DL group that featured likely 1st round pick Laiatu Latu, and Grayson’s literal identical twin brother Gabriel Murphy. Grayson missed the Senior Bowl and instead played (very well) in the Shrine Game. Grayson wasn’t invited to the Combine, and instead tested very well at Pro Day.

Seattle has bodies in their DE group. Uchenna Nwosu should be back healthy this year. Boye Mafe made great strides last year. Derick Hall was drafted very high and you’d hope for improvement year two. Darrell Taylor is a decent contributor back on a reasonable one-year deal. Murphy would be a nice athlete that can act as a bit of injury insurance.

#6.179 – TE, Tennessee, Mccallan Castles

This is a need pick. But Schneider himself has said the team is okay with drafting for need late. I’d love to find a way to land Illinois TE Tip Reiman, but I doubt he’s available this late. I wish Castles was a bit bigger body target, but he’s got decent athleticism, a willingness to block, and some pretty nice hands. If you can get a catch per game and maybe 3 season TD’s from him rookie year; that’s fine value.

#6.192 – LB, UTEP, Tyrice Knight

With the changing of coaching staffs; I think it might be likely we see double-dips at both linebacker and safety. We’ve already seen them let four combined starting linebackers and safeties from 2023 leave the team. Macdonald has something specific he’s looking for. Let’s give him four shots each (including the already signed free agents) at both spots.

Knight is a VMAC visit guy, so there’s clearly some interest here.

#7.235 – DS, TCU, Mark Perry

I think I have a better idea of what Macdonald is looking for at LB, but I’m still catching a vibe of what he may like at DS, as well. I think Dom Hampton is in play. I think Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo will be considered. I’m going with Perry because he’s a very nice athlete, but there’s not as much on tape to suggest he goes earlier. This is an upside play that probably needs to excel on special teams to make the team.

March mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I probably wrote a thousand words for another version of this mock Monday before deciding to scrap it. Part of that was where that mock was headed, but the bigger part was having an interesting idea that led to this version. This is a particular exercise in design, which I won’t spell out now. Maybe after the draft.

The first thing that this mock requires is some massive trading. I think Seattle may be fairly resigned to this route. There is too much heat on the QB class, and there are about 8 teams sitting in front of Seattle with at least some interest in drafting QB. There’s also a decent chance that Seattle may not have 16 players with 1st round grades. I definitely expect there will be some upsets in front of #16 that will allow a 1st round grade player to be there, but the need to add draft capital may outweigh the need to pick. I kinda think maybe the only plausible stick-n-pick player at #16 would be Jared Verse. Plausible, but not probable.

Because of the low number of viable 1st round graded players; a large trade back may be as useful as a small trade back. So for my first trade I am packaging Seattle’s #1.16 and #4.102 to trade with the Dan Morgan-led Panthers. Carolina has no 1st round pick, but they have two in the 2nd, and they have the very first pick in the 3rd round. If they give up the #2.33 and #2.39 they can climb all the way up into the middle 1st while still having nearly a 2nd-rounder at #3.65, plus two in the 4th.

The next move takes the freshly-acquired #2.39 and moves it down. There’s two targets: 1) Detroit sitting at #2.61 + #3.73, 2) Arizona sitting at #3.66, #3.71, #3.90. The Cardinals, with the three 3rd’s, makes a certain amount more sense, but of course it would be preferential for Seattle to get the deal done with Detroit. I’m doing the Detroit deal.

The third trade I have Seattle moving pick #3.81 to Mike Macdonald’s former team. Baltimore gives us #3.93 plus #4.113 to move up 12 spots.

With these three moves, Seattle goes from two picks in the top 100 overall to four picks, which I think is crucial this year. This is better positioning for this draft and what Seattle needs to get done.

#2.33 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins

It’s going to be something to be very aware of this year where the Ravens and Chargers, the Harbaugh brothers’ teams, will be drafting. I’m a little more worried about Jim, with his immediate proximity to the Michigan roster. So, to me, it was important for this trade back not to go past #36 overall.

There is, and will be more, chatter about Seattle taking Texas DT Byron Murphy. It’s a bit of the same conversation that we had last year about Jalen Carter. Only this year, unlike last year, I think there are comparable players available later in the draft. I think Murphy, Jenkins and Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro are three peas in a pod. In many ways, I think Seattle may favor Kris and Ruke. Both measure up very similarly to Justin Madubuike. Honestly, Ruke may be the closest match.

I’m taking Jenkins here because of his connection to Macdonald and because I just think he’s the more compelling intangibles player, but Ruke is not far behind.

#2.61 – OC, South Dakota State, Mason McCormick

I THINK I have a pretty good guess of what Seattle is looking for in a Center. They also need a left guard. McCormick has played primarily left guard in his SDSU career, but I think his profile looks like a Seattle center more than a Seattle guard. And this is an important distinction because Schneider recently slammed the over-drafting of guards. But he didn’t say Center.

If Seattle sees Mccormick as a Center; this is not too high of a draft value.

#3.73 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Mustapha is a long-tenured member of the Sea-mocks, and he will continue on for at least this mock. I wish we had testing on him (Wake Forest pro day on March 27th, I believe), but at the same time if the testing is good his price goes up. And I’m plenty comfortable with him off tape.

I had some thoughts of taking a linebacker here, but I had the next thought that, “if the draft isn’t strong at LB, and if you draft a DT in front of the LB early, and then you draft a DS behind the LB next, maybe you’re compensating for the LB in the aggregate.” I like that. Let’s try it.

#3.93 – OT, Texas, Christian Jones

I just think it’s good draft strategy to pick from the position groups of best depth in a given year. This year, one of the best position groups HAS to be offensive tackle. How far Seattle kicks the position down the draft is probably dependent on what they feel the future of Abe Lucas is. If they think he still has some years of playing RT left; you maybe draft an OT in the 6th round. If you think you need to prolong his career by kicking him inside to guard; I think you draft an OT in 3rd-4th. Lucas himself was a 3rd round pick, so I think there’s some symmetry here.

Jones has the requisite size at 6’5″/305lbs, 34.5″ arms…the right athleticism 5.04s forty…and the right value.

#4.113 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

I vacillated about drafting a QB or not so much over the last week since Seattle acquired Sam Howell via trade. Ultimately, I came back to drafting a QB because 1) they are NOT going to pay Geno Smith $38mill in 2025, 2) I don’t think Sam Howell is any kind of answer, 3) John Schneider has publicly said he feels ashamed that they’ve only drafted two QB across 14-15 years.

In terms of Milton…when I listened to John talk about what he thought of Sam Howell that led to them acquiring him…I don’t think there was a single thing, outside of Howell playing well directly vs Seattle, that doesn’t also apply to Joe Milton. But Milton will give you four years of team control, vs the two that Howell represents.

I don’t know what happens after creating a three-QB room…maybe they carry three for a year (that used to be the standard in the NFL), maybe Smith or Howell become immediate trade bait during the draft for someone that missed on drafting a rookie-starter type QB, maybe the trade happens in preseason after another team suffers an injury at the position, etc.

Howell, at 18 career starts, is only 3 starts less-experienced than Drew Lock was when Seattle acquired Drew two years ago, and he’s only 13 fewer starts than Geno Smith had when he came here in 2020. So while I, in no way, believe Howell is a long-term answer; he is no different than what we’ve been rolling out the last two years. He’s still just a bridge guy, but he’s a cheaper bridge guy.

I think the era of drafting a QB every year starts now.

#4.118 – TE, Illinois, Tip Reiman

Tip was not a guy I had looked at before the Combine, but he really caught my eye there. I think he’d make a great addition to a MacDonald offense. He’s 6’5″/271lbs and 10.5″ hands. Forty of 4.64s is VERY good for a guy his size. In many years, this may be too late to get him, but as hard as the league went on TE in free agency leads me to believe they don’t love the TE in the draft. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your slowest friend.

#6.179 – LB, Temple, Jordan Magee

The biggest change to this mock from previous versions was the way linebacker was pushed down the board after Seattle free agency. I really wish I could have made Cedric Gray fit, but I talked about some of my thought process on it, and then Magee sort of feels like poor-man’s Cedric. Magee measured 6’1″/228lbs with a 4.55s forty at the combine.

#6.192 – OT, TCU, Brandon Coleman

Part of the reason that you draft to the strength of a draft class is that, with numbers at a position; talent will fall. When the strong position is offensive tackle, you can also find value by moving a college OT to OG as a pro.

That is another reason I really believe Schneider when he talks about the value of guards. Think of all the times he’s drafted a college offensive tackle (and sometimes defensive tackle) and moved him to Guard: James Carpenter, Justin Britt, Germain Ifedi, Ethan Pocic (to an extent).

Coleman is a 6’5″/313lb college left tackle (listed at 320 by TCU) with 34 5/8″ arms and a 4.99s forty. I don’t think he’s gonna be useful year one, but we’re drafting him in the 6th round. If we can develop him, and if perhaps getting his weight back up into the 320’s and a move inside to guard could benefit him.

#7.235 – LB, UTEP, Tyrice Knight

Tyrice, after Magee, represents a second lottery ticket at the LB spot in a year that there aren’t really many super clean LB prospects. Maybe Mike Macdonald feels like he can develop a guy with X, Y, Z traits. Knight is 6’1″/233lb and ran a 4.63s forty and was not terribly impressive in the jumps. But he’s got a 30 visit with Seattle, and this is the range where Seattle will pick guys they had in their building (see Jerrick Reed last year).

This was a very specific drafting exercise, but I’m really not mad at how it turned out. There are guys I wish I could have matched up with. I love the Michigan guard Zak Zinter, but is his price down enough to allow John to draft a guard? I talked a bit about LB Cedric Gray. I punted on the WR position thinking about all the times Seattle has had success on undrafted WR (Baldwin, Kearse, Bobo, etc), and the guy I’d prioritize this rookie free agency is Pitt WR Bub Means. I also really would have liked to get a second safety with a pick, with my target being Kansas safety Kenny Logan, but I’m not sure the safety room needed another body with Love and Reed back, new signings in Jenkins and Wallace, and the draftee Mustapha in the earlier round.