By Jared Stanger

The Seattle Seahawk 89-man roster will report to VMAC Wednesday and fans will get their first look at the group on Thursday as we begin the final step of offseason. The 2018 season is surely going to be one of the most unpredictable Seattle seasons of the last decade. These are some of the story lines that I am most curious about:

Defensive Tackle

The middle of the DL is full of question marks. Anchored by newcoming vets Tom Johnson and Shamar Stephens, but then augmented by rookie contract players like the enigmatic Jarran Reed, the intriguing Naz Jones, and a couple rookie free agents in Poona Ford and Eddy Wilson. Are ANY of these guys any good??

I’ve got a longstanding distrust of players from Alabama so I’m no fan of Jarran Reed. 30 games and 21 starts into his pro career and he’s sitting at 3.0 career sacks. Naz posted 2.0 his rookie year. And, of course, there’s more to playing DT than sacks; but there just never seems to be much disruption from Jarran. But if you want Bobby Wagner making 200 tackles, I suppose Reed can help.

I like Naz Jones. I like his backstory. I like his makeup. I like his upside. I don’t have a strong feeling that he’ll make a huge leap in year 2, but I feel like he could become something by year 3 or 4. I agree with the voters that he should out-play Reed only because I don’t expect much from Reed.

In fact, one of my sleeper picks for the 53-man roster is Eddy Wilson. That may come at the expense of an injured vet, or from out-playing Jarran.

Defensive End

This is the biggest question mark position for me. Frank Clark is now your veteran presence entering his 4th season, and he’s always a wildcard simply for his personality. Dion Jordan: question mark for his knee health. Branden Jacksen: question mark because you aren’t completely sure he is still on the team. Jacob Martin and Rasheem Green: question marks for being rookies.

That is literally the entirety of the players listed at DE. Now, guys like Marcus Smith and Barkevious Mingo can (and almost certainly will) play some DE, but they are listed as LB.

I’m on record that I have next to no faith that Green will make it in the league. Certainly I think it will take him a while. I have more faith in Martin longterm, but I’m not sure he gets much more than special teams this year. I will be watching closely to see if either are cracking the first team DL.

Running Back

Hopefully this will be an exciting group to watch. Lots of tough runners. Lots of solid pass-catchers. Chris Carson feels like the favorite to lead in carries early on, but Rashaad Penny was a first round pick and seems the more durable player. Mike Davis is still a personal favorite and I think deserves a long look as a 3rd down option. JD McKissic is the outlier due to his size (or lack-of), but doesn’t really carry any special athleticism/speed to compensate. CJ Prosise is easily an afterthought to me…I can’t trust him to open the mail for fear of a DL-inducing papercut, let alone trust him to carry the mail as a RB.

Making a prediction this early on a RB1 is a bit foolhardy, as someone will go down in preseason, but I think the poll results are fair.

Safety

Or is THIS the biggest position question mark??? Shit.

Sadly, I think we know more answers here but we just hate what they are. Kam and Earl are likely gone. Your starting safety tandem is quite probably Bradley McDougald and Delano Hill.

I’m not on board with the results of this poll. Not to the extreme that they came out to be. Lano was a very good college player from one of Pete and John’s favorite college coaches. And keep in mind…Lano runs a 4.47s verified combine forty while McDougald runs a 4.51s pro day hand-time.

Tight End

Perhaps the primary question about the tight end group isn’t even “who?” but “what?” As in, in the post-Jimmy era; WHAT does the expectation of the tight end position look like?? Because there are certain potential expectations that make the poll results, and an idea of Will Dissly being a strong early contributor, totally plausible.

Ed Dickson seems a safe play. Kinda like both of the free agent DT signings. Don’t expect much but then over-deliver.

Vannett…I don’t know what that story is. It’s really strange, though.

Wide Receiver

More question marks. But kind of more in a fun way. Vets, rookies, trade acquisitions, free agent acquisitions, big guys, little guys…

But really it’s a bunch of inexperienced guys. After Brandon Marshall, Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Lockett there are zero guys with over 100 career catches. 8 of 12 WR on the roster have under 20 career catches. 5 of 12 WR have zero career catches. If we’re trying to predict those 4th, 5th, 6th WR spots we’re doing it based off of college or preseason tape.

I like Tyler Lockett to have a big year. I like Stringfellow to make the team. If either of Darboh or Moore make the team, I tend to agree with the poll results that it will be Moore.

Potpourri

I think it’s worth watching the 2018 free agent signings. If any aren’t carrying their weight; they can be cut within a few weeks of the regular season and not count toward the compensatory draftpick formula. I expect this will happen to a few.

Even with Mike Solari installed as the new OL coach; I don’t think the team is evaluating OL well. If they aren’t digging hard at finding a different right tackle; we’re in trouble.

CB2 is kind of precarious. We’re expecting Byron Maxwell, at age 30, to be passable. Or not passable. What is it we want in corners? Elliott is still recovering from an injury, I think Dontae Johnson is injured, Mike Tyson is a CB in name only…the season may pivot on whether or not Tre Flowers can learn, and win, a CB spot by midpoint of the season.

For the first time maybe ever the back field of VMAC may become appointment viewing at training camp as fans clamor to get their first in-person look at rookie punter Michael Dickson.

By Jared Stanger

Four days away from the opening of Seahawks’ training camp and less than three weeks from the first preseason game, as well as a month from the opening of the college season, so it’s time to start digging into the 2019 draft. I’m beginning with one of the positions the Seahawks are most-likely to need to be looking at for an early draftpick: Defensive End.

My early study is telling me that most of the early “top 10 DE” lists are missing something…the right players. I struggle to see whatever the national media is seeing in guys like Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary, Zach Allen. I’m not going to sit here and dissect how/why I don’t like those. What I’m going to do instead is show you the guys that I do like.

Brian Burns, 6’5″/227lbs, FSU

A 2018 Junior; Burns has a year or two to add some weight to his super long frame. Guys like Vic Beasley have made it work at about 245lbs. Burns will also be challenged as the #1 DE for the Seminoles with Josh Sweat moved on to the NFL. Burns is coming off a 4.5 sack season, but posted 9.5 sacks as a freshman.

Anthony Nelson, 6’7″/260lbs, Iowa

Another Junior; Nelson has a Ryan Kerrigan vibe in his size and hand usage. Posting 13.5 sacks across his first two seasons, I really like what Nelson is showing on tape.

Jaylon Ferguson, 6’5″/269lbs, LaTech

Ferguson has been a hugely productive passrusher in the C-USA for three years with 7.0 sacks in 2017 after a career high of 14.5 sacks in 2016.

Jamal Davis, 6’4″/235lbs, Akron

Davis is a bit of a wildcard after only 2.0 sacks last year. But I like the athleticism.

Jalen Jelks, 6’6″/245lbs, Oregon

Jelks posted 6.5 sacks last year playing out of position at DT, and/or 4-tech. It’s actually impressive when you watch the tape, but then look at his weight. Jelks looks like a guy that could explode if given a shot to rush all the time at a more natural position as DE or rush LB.

Nick Bosa, 6’4″/270lbs, Ohio State

Bosa is the one guy from the preseason DE lists that I can’t argue against. Outside of an injury; it’s tough to see Bosa not becoming a top 5 draftpick if he declares after his Junior year.

Joe Jackson, 6’5″/258lbs, Miami

Probably the strongest DE I looked at. Jackson is coming off a 6.5 sack season.

Add this group of players to the list of potential vet free agent DE’s that are coming; Seattle could potential shore up their shallow passrushing in a single offseason.

Plus Preston Smith and Jadeveon Clowney.

By Jared Stanger

The Mariners wrapped up their 2018 draft on Wednesday, and a few outlets have done recaps with position and statistical breakdowns, but I wanted to take a look at tape of as many players as I could find.

Catcher

This might be my favorite group. Seattle drafted three catchers: 3rd round Cal Raleigh, 7th round Jake Anchia, 19th round Dean Nevarez.

Cal Raleigh can switch-hit and as such some reports tag him like a Jason Varitek type, but for me the size and tape suggest AJ Pierzynski but hitting both sides. Raleigh could easily become a 15 HR/80 RBI/.280 annual hitter with a couple all-star appearances. In 2018 he hit 335/461/1.061 with 13 HR, 52 RBI, and an impressive 51 to 39 BB-to-SO rate.

 

Jake Anchia looks like a pretty solid receiver with some definite power (22 homeruns this year), and my only question is his arm. He hit 340/402/1.115 with 64 RBI.

 

And from the 19th round, Dean Nevarez hit 294/378/846 with 8 HR and 32 RBI. He’s glove-first for now, but there is some upside in the swing.

 

Outfield

Surprisingly, Seattle only drafted six outfielders:

2nd round Josh Stowers
9th round Keegan McGovern
13th round Charlie McConnell
17th round Cesar Trejo
23rd round Ryan Ramiz
30th round Cody Staab

Josh Stowers is a terrific athlete with elite basestealing (4th in the country), very solid glove, and a progressing bat: 336/477/1.036, 9 HR, 60 RBI, 36 SB. His floor looks like a Michael Bourn.

 

Something on Stowers I didn’t note pre-draft was his arm, but this looks pretty solid:

 

Keenan McGovern was announced as a centerfielder, but his profile looks like a corner outfielder, maybe even first base, with some legit power potential: 319/431/1.075, 18 HR, 50 RBI, and a decent 37 BB to 46 SO rate.

 

Charlie McConnell looks to be of a similar profile to M’s AAA outfielder Ian Miller, or Braden Bishop at AA. 347/425/895 slash with not a lot of pop (2 HR, 27 RBI), but he was 2nd in the country in stolen bases (37) and fairly high up in triples (6).

 

Cesar Trejo is another very solid base-stealing OF (22 SB) that flashed decent power in 2017, but lost most of his power numbers in 2018 while drastically cutting down his strikeouts (dropped his SO rate 8%). His bio mentions that Trejo played some shortstop in 2016, so I’m wondering about him playing some other spots…maybe third. In 2018: 363/428/997, 5 HR, 50 RBI. Pretty quick hands.

 

Ryan Ramiz I couldn’t find tape of, but his statline of 316/432/859 is highlighted by more walks than strikeouts, a couple of 15+ steal years in 2016-2017, but no power whatsoever with 1 HR in four years.

And finally, Cody Staab is a very odd draftchoice because he only has 64 career at-bats at Rice U (only 27 AB in 2018). He’s a career .156 hitter. He hits and throws lefthanded…is this, maybe, a future pitcher?? Or is there someone named Staab that works for the Mariners, and this pick is a gratis pick?

Infield

10th Round, SS Matt Sanders
12th Round, 2B Ryne Ogren
22nd Round, SS Nicholas Rodriguez
25th Round, 2B Connor Kopach
26th Round, 3B Cal Hernandez
27th Round, 2B Cash Gladfelter
28th Round, 2B Beau Branton
29th Round, SS Bobby Honeyman
32nd Round, 2B Zach Scott
38th Round, 2B Jack Montgomery

Infield becomes the first group we’ve looked at to have a prep player drafted (Montgomery). Six second basemen out of ten infielders is interesting (and Rodriguez has also spent time there). No true 1B picked.

Matt Sanders continues a theme of this class: basestealing. He finished t27th in the country with 26 bags swiped. Tape suggests Sanders is an extreme slap hitter with a very good eye (44 BB to 33 SO). 378/463/1.001 and he led the country in runs scored with 87 in 61 games.

 

Sanders’ glove looks like it can stick at short.

 

Ryne Ogren looks like a very nice contact hitter, with a very low strikeout rate of 7.58%, and total BB-to-SO mark of 44-21. Overall slash of 338/451/908. Only doubles power at this point.

 

Nicholas Rodriguez strikes out a lot, but he’s got more power than the rest of this infield list (10 HR). 337/376/918 but struck out 53 times to 15 walks.

Connor Kopach is the last of the Mariners’ draftpicks to appear in the top 10 nationally in stolen bases (33). Slash of 336/424/946. Announced as a second baseman, Kopach has played shortstop this year.

Cal Hernandez appears to be fairly unremarkable as a hitter. Not a ton of power, not much speed. 329/426/846 but only a .091 ISO. Which means he hits a lot of singles. So I tried to look into whether his glove was his carrying quality. It might be.

Cash Gladfelter

Beau Branton. A pretty wee second baseman that hit 361/440/868, but his ISO of only .067 paints the picture of an extreme singles hitter.

Bobby Honeyman is one of the toughest batters to strikeout in the country. In fact, he’s literally 2nd with only one strikeout every 30.1 AB’s.

I was originally planning to do the whole draft class at once, but having taken a few days to find stats and video on most of the position players, I don’t think I’m going to include pitchers here. I’ll do a separate story for those.

But with the Everett Aquasox season kicking off this Friday; I thought it would be fun to imagine an opening day lineup comprised of the 2018 draft class.

Without any true first baseman drafted, and only one at third; I’m going to take some liberties to invent fits at those two spots. With McGovern’s power, and better athleticism from other outfielders, I’m going to move Keegan to 1B. And with some play at shortstop in his background, I’m going to try Cesar Trejo at 3B. Then, since I moved two OF into the IF, I need to move an IF to the OF. There are a plethora of 2B, and I’m gonna try Connor Kopach and his speed in LF.

1- SS Matt Sanders
2- CF Josh Stowers
3- C Cal Raleigh
4- 1B Keenan Mcgovern
5- DH Jake Anchia
6- 3B Cesar Trejo
7- 2B Ryne Ogren
8- LF Connor Kopach
9- RF Charlie McConnell

By Jared Stanger

One of the interesting variables of the MLB vs the NFL draft is the existence of high school prospects, and the potential of drafted high schoolers to decline signing and attend college.

So each team has a sort of backlog of players they have drafted but are playing elsewhere. This is the Mariners’ log of unsigned players. We’ll start with 2017 and work backwards.

2017

18th Round – OF, Myles Christian. Drafted out of high school in Mississippi, Christian is a freshman at Middle Tennessee where he is hitting 259/378/736, with 11 XBH and 9 SB.

35th Round – RHP, Hunter Lonigro. Drafted out of high school in Pennsylvania, Lonigro has no college stats to date.

36th Round – OF, Heston Kjerstad. Drafted out of high school in Texas, Kjerstad elected to attend Arkansas where he’s having a really strong freshman season, hitting 336/416/969 with 11 HR, 47 RBI. He’s still active in the 2018 College World Series where he hit 3×5, with a homerun and 4 RBI on Friday night.

37th Round – OF, Jesse Franklin. Drafted locally out of Seattle Prep, Franklin also had a great freshman season at Michigan: 327/379/967, with 10 homeruns, 47 RBI’s.

38th Round – LHP, Kolby Somers. Drafted out of high school in Oregon, Somers is attending the University of Oregon where he has made 16 appearances including 11 starts, with a 4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.

39th Round – SS, Jack Smith. Drafted locally out of Mercer Island HS, Smith hit 247/286/546 in his freshman year at WSU.

2016

16th Round – C, Lyle Lin. Drafted out of high school in California, Lin is in his sophomore year at Arizona State where has posted two solid seasons, hitting 290 as a freshman and then 317/350/764 this year.

24th Round – OF, Trey Griffey. Never heard of him.

30th Round – OF, Tyler Duncan. Drafted out of high school in Canada, Duncan had a massive 2017 at Crowder College hitting 358/462/1.084 with 10 HR, 39 XBH, and 80 RBI.

31st Round – RHP, Lincoln Henzman. Drafted as an underclassmen out of Louisville, Henzman returned to college, and was drafted by the White Sox last year. He’s at 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in A-ball this year.

32nd Round – RHP, Kenyon Yovan. Drafted out of high school in Oregon, Yovan is now a sophomore starter for the Ducks after closing as a freshman. Posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 10.42 SO/9 this year.

33rd Round – SS, Morgan McCullough. Drafted locally out of West Seattle HS, McCullough elected to attend Oregon where he played in 53 games as a freshman, but is apparently off the team this year.

35th Round – RHP, Will Ethridge. Drafted out of high school in Georgia, Ethridge has pitched well in his first two years at Ole Miss, pitching to a 3.19 ERA primarily out of the bullpen.

37th Round – C, Eli Wilson. Drafted out of Garfield HS, the Mariner legacy and son of Dan Wilson is in his sophomore year at the University of Minnesota where he has been very good, including hitting 301/392/843 this year with 5 HR, 33 RBI in 48 games.

38th Round – RHP, James Reilly. Drafted out of high school in New York, Reilly was slated to attend James Madison.

40th Round – C, Adley Rutschman. Drafted out of high school in Portland, Rutschman is one of the best players in the country as a sophomore, and will almost certainly be a 1st round pick in the 2019 draft. Rutschman’s 2018 season to date: 391/494/1.088, 6 HR, 63 RBI.

Seattle is eligible to draft a player they have previously drafted only if that player gives his consent, so some of these guys may still yet become Mariners.

 

By Jared Stanger

We’re down to the final days before the 2018 MLB Draft, and this will be my final Mariner mock. We’ll go up to thirteen rounds this time.

It’s pretty unanimous amongst draft sites that the Mariners will take a college player in the 1st round. I believe in Jerry Dipoto’s entire GM career he’s only NOT done that (in favor of a high schooler) one time. I don’t agree with that as a philosophy. Even if you weight college players higher, there should still be times where the best player available on your board is a high schooler. Many of the best players of all time came directly from high school…Junior, A-Rod, Trout, etc.

In addition to generally going college player, many are speculating that Seattle will go specifically college pitcher. After picking Kyle Lewis and Evan White in the last two drafts, and noting the lack of pitching in the Seattle farm system; they really need to get a pitcher, but I’m not sure the earth has provided what we need this year.

MLB.com’s draft rankings currently have four college pitchers ranked #14-#17…and Seattle drafts at #14.

#14 LHP Shane McClanahan: 5-6, 3.41 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 14.76 SO/9, 5.55 BB/9, 5.80 H/9
#15 RHP Jackson Kowar: 9-4, 3.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.84 SO/9, 3.59 BB/9, 7.96 H/9
#16 RHP Logan Gilbert: 10-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.87 SO/9, 1.80 BB/9, 5.40 H/9
#17 LHP Ryan Rolison: 9-4, 3.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.66 SO/9, 4.18 BB/9, 8.37 H/9

I don’t love any of them.

McClanahan is a true power arm with a triple-digit fastball, but he has no control. And he’s been dropping like a brick for the last few weeks. I like his makeup, but I have a feeling he ends up in a bullpen like an Andrew Miller.

Gilbert has the best package of “right now” skills that I look for, but I’m spooked by his lack of intangibles. He’s just-a-guy, and won’t be an MLB star.

Kowar does nothing for me. Not an elite strikeout guy. Not an elite control guy. He’s like a Mike Leake 4th starter.

Rolison is only mildly more interesting than Kowar because he’s a lefty and has a plus pitch in his curveball. But this still feels like two rounds too early to draft him.

The next eight players on MLB’s big board are all HS. The next college player is Oregon State OF Trevor Larnach. Who I like…but who I like better where he’s ranked at #26.

My true hope is that one of: Florida 3B Jonathan India, HS RHP Cole Winn, HS OF Jarred Kelenic drop from their ranks at #8, #9, #10 and fall to Seattle at #14. We saw Kyle Lewis drop farther than that, so there is some precedent for it to happen.

But without a few of what John Schneider calls “upsets” in the NFL draft; taking things as projected, I think I’d have to take McClanahan at #14. I at least feel confident he is MLB talent as a stud reliever.

#14 – LHP Shane McClanahan, USF

Seattle has followed up their college player in the 1st round with high school players in the 2nd round in the last two years. There are some rumors they really like RHP Lenny Torres Jr, but MLB has him at #47. I like RHP Owen White and Braxton Ashcraft.

White has very solid pitchability with a four-pitch mix and very good control. Then I read that he’s currently sitting 93-95mph on his fastball. That pretty much sealed it for me. Give me 94mph with control and “stuff” all day.

#54 – RHP Owen White, HS

I had Seattle drafting FSU catcher Cal Raleigh in my first mock a few weeks ago, and I’m keeping that now. Although, Raleigh tore up the ACC tournament last weekend and may now not last this long.

The basic scouting report: a switch-hitting backstop with good defense and a .461 OBP. Sold.

#90 – C Cal Raleigh, FSU

This next pick has probably become my favorite player in this draft. This is UNCG centerfielder Andrew Moritz. He’s hitting 428/494/1.146 with 6 HR, 56 RBI, 7 doubles and an insane 10 triples in 51 games. Not an elite base-stealer, but he plays a stellar CF, and brings a tremendously positive vibe to the clubhouse.

The other guy of similar skillset to target at this spot is Louisville’s Josh Stowers. Not as disciplined of a bat, but an elite baserunner.

#118 – CF Andrew Moritz, UNCG

Nick Sandlin is a starting pitcher for Southern Miss that has compiled a 2018 season of: 9-0, 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 12.65 SO/9, 8.93 SO/BB. Now, I don’t know if he sticks as a starter with this delivery, but he can definitely be fast-tracked to the bigs as a reliever. Sandlin throws from multiple arm slots, with multiple spins, and maintains control throughout.

#148 – RHP Nick Sandlin, Southern Miss

With two college pitchers drafted that may end up fitting better as relievers, I need to find some value arms that can start. I’ve actually got three or four lefties in mind. The first, and the one with the highest projection, is Hofstra’s John Rooney.

At 6’5″/225lbs, Rooney has a really nice build, and has made huge strides in the last year, or so, since attending the Cape Cod League. In 2018, Rooney pitched to a 8-2 record, with 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 10.23 SO/9, and 4.00 SO/BB. The stuff is presently a low-90’s fastball with good plane, and a great slider. His third pitch is a fringey changeup.

#178 – LHP John Rooney, Hofstra

Continuing to stockpile starters…perhaps my favorite pitcher for his value/upside combo is Saint Louis RHP Miller Hogan. At 6’2″/190lbs, not the biggest guy, but he’s working with plus control and a filthy sinking changeup. His 2018: 10-3, 2.19 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 11.31 SO/9, and an insane 10.75 SO/BB.

#208 – RHP Miller Hogan, Saint Louis

To close out the top-ten rounds (where the bonus pool is applicable), I’m really trying to focus on college seniors.

Shortstop, and especially good-defending shortstop, is tough to find this year. So I’m going the opposite direction and drafting the best offensive SS I found. Seth Lancaster hit a respectable .309, but was on-base at a .454 clip, and hit 18 homers with 22 stolen bases. He can also play third if the defense doesn’t hold up at short. The bat-speed is really good.

#238 – SS Seth Lancaster, Coastal Carolina

Then, to close out the up-the-middle of my defense, I’m adding Braxton Morris at 2B. 380/456/1.007 5 HR, 52 RBI, and 25 doubles. I love his defense.

#268 – 2B Braxton Morris, Morehead State

In the 10th round I’m targeting either of two college LHP: Adam Scott or Kevin Magee. Both with really similar lines including over 11.0 SO/9 and under 2.0 BB/9.

#298 – LHP Kevin Magee, St. John’s

At this point, after the top 300 players, it’s really tough to know where the rest of these guys come off the board. These are massive guesses, but I’m still trying to find college Seniors.

For the outfield, I’ve got a couple names: Devlin Granberg and Joey Denison.

Granberg doesn’t look like he should be as good and athletic as he is. But a 424/531/1.185 slash is nuts. And on top of that he stole 22 bases.

#328 – OF Devlin Granberg, Dallas Baptist

At 1B, Gabe Snyder has 15 HR, 71 RBI and a decent 14 stolen bases to go with his 351/416/1.080 slash. Probably not available this late, but if he is…

#358 – 1B Gabe Snyder, Wright State

My last pick, we’ll end on pitching, and this is a true closer. With 20 saves in 30 appearances, 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 11.33 SO/9; this is Brooks Wilson.

#388 – CL Brooks Wilson, Stetson

Summary:

1- LHP Shane McClanahan
2- RHP Owen White
3- C Cal Raleigh
4- CF Andrew Moritz
5- RHP Nick Sandlin
6- LHP John Rooney
7- RHP Miller Hogan
8- SS/3B Seth Lancaster
9- 2B Braxton Morris
10- LHP Kevin Magee
11- LF Devlin Granberg
12- 1B Gabe Snyder
13- CL Brooks Wilson

By Jared Stanger

So I’ve had this idea stuck in my head for years, but I finally had some time to give it a legit college try. The processing could be better, but I think the edit turned out nice. Something whimsical if you know both of these pieces:

By Jared Stanger

We’re down to two weeks away from the 2018 MLB Draft, and as I’m refining my impressions of this class I looked back at some of the players I liked in years past to see if scouting MLB is even worth doing. If I’m just throwing darts, or if I’ve actually shown some talent for spotting talent.

I think the first year I spent time on the MLB Draft was 2012. I didn’t dig very deep into the draft in terms of multiple rounds, but I did study 2-3 rounds worth. That year Seattle was drafting 3rd overall and I was hoping Carlos Correa would be there.

Of course, Correa ended up going 1st overall and has become an All-Star shortstop and World Series champ for Houston. The Mariners took Mike Zunino at #3.

Kevin Plawecki obviously wouldn’t have been a need after the M’s got Zunino, but for the record Plawecki made it to MLB at age 24, but has only hit .220 in a primarily backup role.

In 2013, the M’s were drafting at #12 overall, and I wanted them to get DJ Peterson.

Peterson tore up multiple levels of the minors until he suffered a broken jaw from a hit-by-pitch. He was never the same after that, and has been stalled at AAA for parts of the last four seasons, without ever making it to MLB yet.

Hunter Renfroe was drafted right after Peterson at #13 overall, made it to MLB in 2016, and has yet to put it all together in the bigs. He hit 26 homers in 2017, his first full season, but slashed only 231/284/751.

Phil Bickford was drafted two slots before Seattle’s pick, but did not sign in 2013. Since being drafted again in 2015, Bickford has posted a MILB career mark of 2.71 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 10.3 SO/9 in the low minors.

But the interesting names on that prior tweet might be Cavan Biggio and Logan Shore. Both were high schoolers in 2013, and remained true to their respective college commitments. Both were drafted again in 2016, and are having tremendous 2018 seasons. Biggio (son of Craig Biggio) is hitting 303/421/1.118 with 12 HR in 36 games in AA, while Shore has opened 2018 with a 2-0 record, 1.21 ERA, 0.896 WHIP, 10.1 SO/9, and 12.50 SO/BB in A+ ball.

Arguably, 2013 wasn’t a great draft overall with only Kris Bryant becoming an all star from that year’s first round (Aaron Judge and Corey Knebel were selected in first round compensatory rounds).

The 2014 draft Seattle was drafting at #6 overall. I preferred the M’s go the route of college pitcher, and draft Aaron Nola.

Nola was drafted at #7, directly after Seattle selected HS catcher Alex Jackson. Nola made quick progression to MLB, hitting the show a year after his draft, at age 22. He’s been predominantly a solid starter since his arrival, and seems to have taken a step up to elite/ace level here in 2018; pitching to a 6-1 record, 1.99 ERA, 0.989 WHIP so far.

Nick Gordon (ironically, the younger brother of new Mariner Dee Gordon) was drafted at #5 overall, and is now 22 years old and tearing up AA: 336/383/907.

The 2015 draft was a tough year because Seattle had no pick in the 1st round, and nothing until #60 overall. Insanely, I called my shot.

This tweet was sent right before Seattle was on the clock:

Neidert was a very solid MILB player for Seattle until he hit AA last year at a pretty young 20 years old. Then Seattle traded him away to Miami. So far, in his 2nd stint in AA, Neidert is improving. He’s currently at a 3.25 ERA, 1.331 WHIP, and his strikeouts are back up over 9.0 per nine innings.

Josh Naylor was another HS kid I liked that year but he went off the board at #12 overall, and he’s currently hitting 344/427/1.002 with 9 HR, 37 RBI in 40 games for the Padres AA team.

The 2016 draft was probably the most unpredictable we’ve seen in the last 5-6 years. The Mariners were picking at #11 (first draft in Jerry Dipoto era, by the way), and the rumor mills had Seattle targeting college RHP Justin Dunn. Personally, I was targeting high bat Alex Kirilloff.

After a very strong debut in rookie ball; Kirilloff missed all of 2017 with Tommy John (IIRC), but he’s back this year and right back in the groove hitting 316/361/949 with 6 HR, 30 RBI in 34 games for the Twins’ farm.

The Mariners, of course, ended up with Kyle Lewis after his surprising fall out of the top 10. I hadn’t spent much time talking about him as he seemed certain to go top 5. I liked the pick.

More 2016 players:

Puckett- hasn’t played in 2018
Gallen (AAA)- 4-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 7.5 SO/9, 3.08 SO/BB
Burnes (MILB)- 2.31 ERA, 1.070 WHIP, 9.1 SO/9, 3.26 SO/BB

Justus (MILB)- 224/345/656
Jones- went to college at UW
Vieaux (A+)- 3.89 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 7.2 SO/9
Bieber (AA-AAA)- 1.43 ERA, 0.854 WHIP, 8.2 SO/9, 15.3 SO/BB
Lucchesi (MLB)- 3.23 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 9.1 SO/9, 3.2 SO/BB

The 2017 first round pick was another tough one to predict with Seattle sitting at #17 overall. It was the second year of Jerry, so I had better feel that it would be a college player, and I had some feeling it might be Evan White.

That was my guess at what Seattle WOULD do. My personal preference was to go after a college pitcher.

Peterson has opened his MILB pro career with a 2.10 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, 8.1 SO/9 in eight starts.

High school outfielder Jordan Adell never felt like a Jerry pick, and seemed destined to be off the board early, but he was really intriguing.

Adell was picked at #10, and already has 10 homeruns to his credit in his first 74 games, plus a 325/380/928 slash and 58 RBI.

Another college bat I was looking at for Seattle last year was outfielder Stuart Fairchild. But he was a weird value between Seattle’s picks at #17 and #55 (Stuart ended up almost exactly between the two, at #38).

Fairchild has hit 297/390/802 to start his career with 23 stolen bases in 94 games.

Heimlich infamously stayed in school after his off-field history came to light, but Lowther ended up drafted at #74 and has been REALLY good; posting a 1.59 ERA, 0.794 WHIP, 13.2 SO/9, 6.82 SO/BB in his first 17 starts.

Overall, I think I’m “hitting” more than I’m “striking out” on my picks for my career. I think the last two years have been especially solid. I think it’s a pretty huge mistake by Jerry and co. to bypass high school players completely in the 1st round. There are awesome talents like Kirilloff to be found there. This year it’s Jarred Kelenic and Cole Winn, for me.

I am looking to get another Mariner mock draft up before the first night of the draft, and I’m shooting to have a full 10 rounds represented.

By Jared Stanger

The 2018 MLB Draft is now only three weeks away (Monday June 4th-Wednesday June 6th), and with some pretty big downtime in the NFL; I generally like to spend a few weeks digging into some MLB draft prospects.

The Mariners will be picking at #14, #54, #90, #118, and every 30th pick thereafter. I may get this built up to a 10-round mock before the actual draft, but for now I’m just looking at the first five rounds.

Shortly after the 2017 draft completed I made my first foray into the 2018 class, and this is the guy I found:

11 months later and Jarred Kelenic is pretty soundly locked into the top 10 picks. MLB has him at #8, 2080 has him all the way up to #3 overall. Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that he’ll make it anywhere near Seattle’s first pick. But, if we consider Seattle’s recent draft history, a) they probably need to prioritize pitching higher, b) they have generally gone with college players in the 1st round, and then shoot for a nice upside high schooler in the 2nd round. So a HS outfielder like Kelenic is probably not a likely Seattle target.

The best college pitcher I’ve watched this Spring has been Auburn’s Casey Mize, and he is currently the favorite to be picked #1 overall. Other first round projected pitchers: Florida’s RHP Brady Singer, USF’s LHP Shane McClanahan, Ole Miss LHP Ryan Rolison, Florida RHP Jackson Kowar, Stetson RHP Logan Gilbert, Stanford RHP Tristan Beck, Kentucky RHP Sean Hjelle. Of that list, I’ve already seen Rolison and Gilbert rumored to Seattle.

Ryan Rolison is a 6’2″/195lb, draft-eligible sophomore lefty with a line of 7-4, 4.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 10.6 SO/9, 3.91 BB/9 in 13 starts and 76.0 innings. I tend to think Seattle looks for a little more control from their pitchers, especially in the 1st round.

Logan Gilbert is a 6’5″/195lb, junior righty with a line of 8-1, 2.61 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 12.61 SO/9, 1.88 BB/9 in 12 starts and 86.0 innings. Gilbert’s 121 strikeouts are 2nd in the country, and his 6.72 SO/BB is 21st in the country. The latter stat, I think, might be a strong indicator of Seattle interest, but I just don’t think Gilbert is an MLB player.

So it appears our first choice of college pitcher is not a great group.

The next most likely quartile: college bats. This is a bit stronger section. The top 15 could include 2B Nick Madrigal, C Joey Bart, 3B Jonathan India, OF Travis Swaggerty, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Trevor Larnach.

Bohm- 339/436/1.018, 11 HR, 45 RBI, 31 BB, 20 SO, 35% XBH
Madrigal- 449/488/1.078, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 6 BB, 2 SO (*in 18 games)
Bart- 364/474/1.094, 12 HR, 31 RBI, 34 BB, 43 SO, 34% XBH
India- 384/525/1.305, 16 HR, 40 RBI, 43 BB, 38 SO, 47% XBH
Swaggerty- 301/466/1.050, 13 HR, 38 RBI, 45 BB, 30 SO, 42% XBH
Larnach- 339/466/1.139, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 33 BB, 38 SO, 48% XBH

It’s a pretty nice group when the worst of them is OBP’ing .436. Four of six with more walks than strikeouts. Five of six with over 33% XBH. The downside of this group is that they have a combined 32 stolen bases, and only India has over 10. Even Swaggerty, who averaged 19.5 SB in his first two years of college is only at 7 this year. These aren’t tremendous athletes overall. That’s another thing Seattle has targeted in the Dipoto drafts: Kyle Lewis and Evan White are both very good athletes.

Jonathan India seems like the most well-rounded player. Super clean, quick swing. Showing enough power to play a corner infield spot, but enough athleticism that he could possibly play a middle-infield position. MLB has him projected the #10 overall, so it would take a slight drop to make it to Seattle. I like India a lot, though.

High school pitchers is the strongest group in the first round with about seven slots from most top 20 projections. Potential targets at #14 could include RHP Kumar Rocker, RHP Cole Winn, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Ethan Hankins, and RHP Mason Denaburg. The guy that I’m most drawn to from this group is Winn.

Winn is listed 6’2″/195lbs, and works with a good four-pitch mix. The fastball is 92-94mph already and Winn is getting swinging strikes on all of his off-speed pitches. And he’s got plus makeup. As of today, without any unexpected players falling, I take Cole at #14 for the M’s.

High school bats are the shallowest group in the early 1st round. I really don’t see a fit there for Seattle.

The fifth group I want to talk about are the “reaches”. Because there is a drop of 40 picks between Seattle’s first rounder and 2nd rounder, and because the nature of the MLB draft is basically the only place where baseball has a salary cap; we may see Seattle reach on a player at #14 in order to sign him under slot, and then use the remainder to go overslot on a tough-sign at #54. This is where the MLB draft is tougher to predict…draftpick bonuses are not slotted and they are capped.

The reach group could include HS catchers Noah Naylor and Will Banfield, college OF Steele Walker and the aforementioned Trevor Larnach, and HS pitcher JT Ginn.

The guy that I like most to reach on is high school RHP Ginn. Much like Cole Winn, Ginn is 6’2″/199lbs and committed to Mississippi State should he go the college route. Ginn has a live arm; already sitting 95-97mph and touching 99mph. The secondary stuff is less polished than Winn…actually the secondary offering is a really good slider…it’s the third pitch that needs work and may prevent Ginn from starting.

Cole Winn’s tape and statline of 6-2, 0.25 ERA, .111 BAA, 0.527 WHIP, 15.2 SO/9, 11.6 SO/BB won me over.

#14 – RHP Cole Winn, Orange Lutheran HS

Watching tape of basically every player I could find that register in any of the major draft publications’ top 150-200 players, it becomes much easier to isolate a player in the next few rounds.

In the 2nd round, I was very drawn to another high school RHP: Owen White. This is an awesome pitchability player with 92mph fastball, 79mph curve, and a really effective 84mph change. I love his control. And at 6’4″/180lbs there is probably still some room there to add strength and velocity.

White’s senior statline: 9-1, 0.25 ERA, .123 BAA, 0.688 WHIP, 14.6 SO/9, 6.1 SO/BB.

The delivery is a bit unconventional, but the hesi kind of adds to the effectiveness of the fastball/change mix.

#55- RHP Owen White, Jesse Carson HS

In the 3rd round I found another high school RHP I really liked in Braxton Ashcraft, as well as a really nice, toolsy high school SS in Osiris Johnson. But already being two-deep in to high school picks, I’m forcing myself to go college bat.

Cal Raleigh is interesting. He’s slashing 308/442/971 with 9 HR, 39 RBI, 19% walk rate, 36% XBH rate in a strong ACC division. Oh, and he’s a switch-hitting catcher that hits opposite field triples.

#90 – C Cal Raleigh, Florida State

In the 4th round I really like high school two-way player Jack Perkins. Committed to Louisville, Perkins slashed 531/581/1.519 as a batter. As a pitcher, he actually posted a less impressive line: 2.56 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, .219 BAA, 16.5 SO/9, 3.8 SO/BB in six starts. But I think there is potential here. Fastball is only 92mph, but has great plane, which he also mirrors very nicely with a solid curve. Check out this series…

Opens with the fastball.

Then a show-me curve. If he spots this a bit better it’d be a three-pitch punchout.

And a couple pitches later, after showing some off-speed stuff, blows the fastball by him.

#118 – RHP Jack Perkins, Kokomo HS

In the 5th round, I spotted TCU closer Durbin Feltman. Working primarily off of a 95mph fastball and a change that almost has some knuckle action to it, but with identical arm-slot and arm-speed to the FB; Durbin has posted a 0.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, added 4 SO/9 from 2017 (up to 15.7 SO/9), and cut his 2017 BB/9 in half (down to 2.01 BB/9 in 2018).

Here’s a look at that change action.

Many of the picks the Mariners will make from roughly pick #4 to #10 will be underslot guys that wouldn’t really be selected as early as they will if not for the screwy MLB draft pool. If Feltman were a Senior, he’d be exactly that kind of pick. But he is only a Junior and could return to school if he chooses. Then again, 5th round is pretty good spot for a pure reliever.

#148 – RHP Durbin Feltman, TCU

Obviously this is a flawed mock draft. I think Seattle is very likely to force a pick on a college player at #14, and there is zero chance they take three high school RHP this early, and four RHP of all ages in five selections, but I have to go with what my eyes tell me. These are the best values I’m seeing.

By Jared Stanger

It’s NEVER “way too early” for looking at the next year’s draft class. So here are some of the players to watch in the 2018 college football season and 2019 draft.

Running Back

I was really looking forward to watching Florida’s Jordan Scarlett in 2017, but after getting caught up in the credit card fraud case that  put multiple Gators into suspension; Scarlett didn’t play a down in 2017. But he’s recently been reinstated to the team, and should be their workhorse back for 2018.

He’ll be playing the season under the scarlet letter of that off-field redflag, but on the field Scarlett is one of the most well-rounded backs in the country. Playing at 5’11″/213lbs in 2016, Jordan ran for 889 yards on 179 carries. A 4.30s forty runner in high school, Scarlett carries great balance and center of gravity to go with that break-away speed.

I love his slashing style of running. It’s a bit faster, less volatile version of the zig-zagging crocodile style that Marshawn Lynch had.

Here is another great version of that serpentine running style.

Also a lot of broken tackles on his tape.

There was no underclass player that I was more disappointed that he stayed in school this last cycle than Alabama’s Damien Harris. Another really well-balanced player. 5’11″/221lbs with roughly 4.48 speed and one of the best running back minds I’ve seen in 5-6 years of scouting. Harris comes across as a really clean prospect, with low wear on only 135 carries, 1000 yards, and 7.41ypc in 2017.

Damien is at his best in a one-cut, zone scheme where his patience frequently gives you runs like this:

Harris can also create a little bit on his own with his subtle jump-cuts.

Three more really good, albeit a little more undersized, RB to watch in 2018: Bryce Love, Myles Gaskin, and Devin Singletary. Each posted over 1300 yards and 19 TD’s in 2017.

Wide Receiver

I read somewhere on twitter after the draft a comment about teams being disinterested in big WR because they weren’t drafted high this year. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but small WR weren’t drafted high this year either. We saw two WR drafted in the 1st round…the lowest total since 2013. But we still saw two 6’3″ WR with 90th percentile athleticism picked in the top 64 picks.

Most of the cornerbacks that were drafted in the 1st round this year were under 6’0″, but we’re not making the argument that the league doesn’t like big CB’s anymore. No, it was just a better year for more of a quicker, slot type of CB.

And I will go on record right now that in the 2019 draft we will see at least four WR drafted that are over 6’2″ tall in the first two rounds.

I’m starting with a guy that is a bit off the radar in Auburn Jr Darius Slayton. Top five in the country last year in YPC, Slayton isn’t the biggest of the big WR at 6’2″/190lbs, but he has this sixth sense at the receiver position that you don’t often find.

Look at the way Slayton makes this catch:

Instead of running through the ball, Darius senses the CB over the top, keeps his body short of the ball, already anticipating forcing a missed tackle. Plus, it’s a good example of his ability to catch the ball away from his body.

This is 6’3″/200lb Emmanuel Hall. He was 2nd in the country in YPC, and his reel includes many receptions with Hall wide open deep on go routes. His frame, his smooth stride, and wearing that #84 jersey bring to mind Randy Moss.

Both Slayton and Hall will be playing 2018 with very highly regarded QB’s, so they could be in line for big seasons.

Ole Miss’ AJ Brown was 11th in the country in receiving TD’s and could potentially see more work with Van Jefferson transferring. Brown only listed 6’1″ but he’s 225lbs.

Anthony Johnson was a top-10 receiver last year. 6’2″/207lbs.

Tight End

The early look seems to show that 2019 won’t be a great year for TE. Alize Mack at Notre Dame is a stud athlete, but with some redflags.

This is Noah Fant at Iowa. 6’5″/232lbs and a solid mover.

Stanford’s Junior TE Kaden Smith caught my eye during last year’s Pac12 Championship. He posted one more catch than departed TE Dalton Schultz (23 to 22) for the season, but out-gained him 414 yards to 212, and 5 TD to 3. A pretty impressive 18.0ypc is elite for a TE.

Offensive Line

The 2018 class was widely panned for its lack of Offensive Tackle talent. Early signs say that 2019 could be VERY good there.

Jake Browning’s highschool teammate, Jonah Williams is coming along nicely as a blindside protector for Bama. Playing at 6’5’/301lbs last year, he’ll need to get a bit bigger and stronger.

In the category of “if Kolton Miller can be a 1st rounder, so can…” I’ve got a few in mind. Virginia Tech’s Yosuah Nijman is one of the better athletes coming next year. 6’7″/320lbs.

Auburn’s Prince Teno Wanagho (6’7″/301lbs) is far more of a project, but the build is really solid.

The UW bookend Tackles of Trey Adams and Kaleb McGary are going to both be worth watching. Adams is already receiving high projection, though I’d urge more caution there coming off his knee injury. And then McGary is currently underrated, but a pretty awesome athlete in his own right. Here are both on a strong run play:

A wildcard is West Virginia’s Yodny Cajuste (6’5″/308lbs). He might be a right tackle. Needs to stay healthy, though. Injuries in multiple seasons.

And I haven’t even covered Mitch Hyatt, Larry Allen III, and Michael Deiter. Lots of Tackles in 2019.

Safety

With continued uncertainty at the Seattle Safety spots, and Seattle punting on Safety in the 2018 draft, a blue chip Safety may be an early target for Seattle in 2019. I really like Florida’s Chauncey Gardner. A solidly built 6’0″/207lbs, Gardner covers a lot of ground and hits big.

Cornerback

My eye is immediately drawn to LSU redshirt sophomore Andraez “Greedy” Williams. At 6’2″/182lbs he’s got that Seahawk length. With 6 INT and 11 PBU he’s already had great production.

And then the tape shows an innate ability to locate the football in the air. Greedy, if he declares, would be the type of player that doesn’t get out of the top 15 picks, but Seattle would need to pull the trigger if he came near them.

Notre Dame’s Julian Love is 5’11″/193lbs and registered 3 INT and 20 PBU in 2017. Tape is solid.

Linebacker

Joe Giles-Harris will be a Junior and he had a monster sophomore campaign with 125 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 6 hurries, 4 PBU, 1 INT.

Khalil Hodge (6’1″/235lbs) finished 2017 second in tackles nationally.

USC’s Porter Gustin has some passrush to him and may play a LEO spot for the teams that use personnel that way, but I’ll list him at LB for now. He’s a nice athlete that just needs to work on flexibility.

Defensive Line

This combined position group might have the best shot at being really special. With the entire Clemson DL returning to school last year they have a chance to see three drafted in the 1st between Dexter Lawrence, Clelin Ferrell, Christian Watkins, Austin Bryant. Additionally, there will be Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary, Nick Bosa, Dre’mont Jones, Raekwon Davis, and inevitably a wildcard small-schooler like Jaylon Ferguson or Carl Granderson.

I get my Clemson guys confused, but I think Christian Wilkins is the 300lb’er that does jump splits.

Nick Bosa will face the lifelong comp to his brother. I kinda like Nick better to the same point in their careers.

Jaylon Ferguson has been consistently productive in Conference USA, but will need to play well enough to get a Senior Bowl invite, and then play well there, too.

Cece Jefferson is coming off a recent shoulder surgery, but should be ready by August. Slightly undersized, but could see an uptick under a new Defensive Coordinator. The upside is Dwight Freeney.

I didn’t cut any video of Ed Oliver yet. Like, he’s an absolute freak and his upside is high enough to go #1.1. But I have this weird feeling he’s gonna be regularly nicked up with soft tissue problems.

That’s the early look at the 2019 NFL Draft. Looking light on DB’s, but very strong in the trenches. The DL will get the early headlines, but this OT class could be special.

By Jared Stanger

6th round pick Jacob Martin currently weighing in the 240lb range, but targeting playing at 250lbs. Coach Carroll believes he has the versatility to play DE and OLB (perhaps closer to the OTTO role that Bruce Irvin developed into), which is where I’ve been projecting Jacob to end up.

At the WILL backer spot, Pete talked a lot about how that spot is important to have coverage ability because of how much nickel the team will play. This is why the team is trying out a lot of safeties at LB. Shaquem Griffin is in that group, and I kinda like the kid from Texas, Jason Hall.

5th round pick Jamarco Jones is still nicked up with his left knee. Carroll talking about his future potential to play Tackle and Guard. My suspicion is that Seattle is looking to split the backup OL into left and right utilities, rather than swing guard and swing tackle. So Jamarco would battle Rees Odhiambo for left swing, perhaps Ifedi becomes the right swing when Fant gets healthy.

Couple more slight injuries sound like corner Tre Flowers and fullback Khalid Hill.

Carroll calls Khalid a smart player, and watching his ability catching and running the short goalline at Michigan; Hill is my favorite to win the fullback job.

Seattle all but done with Malik McDowell. Pete has no update, but the update is that the team gave Malik’s jersey number to Rasheem Green. It’s all but done.

Sounds like we’ll see quite a bit of movement on the 90-man roster as the team transfers some of the rookie camp tryout guys onto the roster, and some of the signed players off. I’m curious who the team sees as potential MIKE linebackers. They may need to add someone there. And I could see the team make some moves at WR and RB.