By Jared Stanger
I wasn’t planning on doing another mock this close to the previous one, but looking at my schedule next week; I’m not sure if/when I would be able to have another chance as my entire next weekend is booked, and day one of the draft is next Sunday. So here we are.
I have a few general Mariner draft thoughts at the top.
I’m still coming back to the idea that the Mariners’ drafting is overrated. They will, basically, come away with each draft class with two major league players. One from near the top and one from the top 10 rounds.
They draft for need, which is kind of a cardinal sin in a sport that takes years of player development.
They pay WAAAAY too much attention to the media rankings and projections on players, rather than forming their own scouting board.
They’re almost always a year behind on forming the best draft strategy for a particular class. So, the draft strategy that they should have in 2023 (due to strength of college/prep or pitching/hitting) they end up using in 2024. In other words, they’re reactionary but in delay.
I think the M’s fucked up pretty bad last year. The pick of Jurrangelo Cijntje was always questionable to me, and as it stands he’s sitting on a season statline of: 4.95 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 10.1 SO/9, 5.4 BB/9 in high-A Everett. Meanwhile, a guy like Trey Yesavage, who many analysts had as a top 15 pick pre-draft (including me), but ended up at #20 (five picks behind Cijntje) has already been promoted to AA, and has a season line of: 2.92 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 14.9 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9. And Yesavage signed for $700k less than Cijntje.
Also last year…Seattle drafts for need. They took 15 pitchers from 20 total draftpicks. And those pitchers have been a MASH unit of injuries:
3rd rounder Hunter Cranton is newly off the IL and has made 4 appearances.
7th rounder Brock Moore, 11th rounder Christian Little, and 18th rounder Matt Tiberia are all currently on 7-day IL.
16th rounder Wyatt Lunsford-Shankman is on the 60-day IL.
6th rounder Grant Knipp, 8th rounder Will Riley, and 17th rounder Harrison Kreiling are all on the full-season IL.
15th rounder Thomas Higgins is assigned to the Arizona Mariners, but has never pitched and is not on any IL that I could find. Not sure what is going on there.
19th rounder Andrew Walters never signed, choosing to go back to school at Miami.
So, out of 15 pitching draftpicks; 6 have never appeared for the team in the first 12 months of being in the organization.
And the hitting from the 2024 Draft, which was always an after-thought, has performed like an after-thought, with none of the five bats hitting over a .704 OPS for the year.
The only saving grace of the 2024 class is that 2nd rounder, Ryan Sloan, has really started to put things together in his last 4-5 starts, and now sits at a respectable 3.73 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 9.8 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9 for the year. And the two relievers that Seattle drafted in the early rounds as underslot, senior-signs, Hunter Cranton and Charlie Beilenson, have been pretty strong when they have pitched. If one of them pans out, plus Sloan, those are your two MLB players from 2024.
But considering the failings of the pitching from last year…considering the health failings of almost every starter on major league team…considering the lack of any pitching prospects in AA to AAA…I think Seattle finds itself again in need of drafting for need, and that means pitching.
I, personally, think the move that should be made in this specific draft class, where the college players of both position and pitcher are not strong, would be to try to draft high school players with upside. But Seattle won’t do that. Well, they will probably do it next year when the class will be completely different.
After listening to Scott Hunter’s press huddle from last week; I really think Seattle is already locked in to draft a college pitcher with their #3 overall pick. Hunter thinks the high school shortstop group, which looks to be a strength of the class, are players more likely to be drafted in the middle of the first round, rather than at the top. College bats are really not strong, and really don’t make sense with the makeup and ETA of Seattle’s farm system. It would make some sense to look for a fast-moving college player (of either bat or arm), but there’s only one college bat in the top 10 (Aiva Arquette), and is he really gonna move faster than Colt Emerson, Laz Montes, Harry Ford, Michael Arroyo, Tyler Locklear who should all be ready this year or next? This Seattle regime has never developed a bat that fast. And high school pitching is traditionally the riskiest pick for all of MLB early in the draft, and has also been the quadrant Seattle has had the least success in drafting/developing. I think it’s a college pitcher at #3.
Then, if we parse college pitching down a bit more…everybody sort of believes the three lefthanders: Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, Jamie Arnold are the three top arms in the class. I have some numbers that suggest Gage Wood could be argued to be in that mix, if not at the #1 spot if he had a bigger sample size from this year. I’d be pretty interested in seeing what Seattle could do in terms of signing Wood for underslot at #3 when he’s ranked more like #15 overall. Seattle won’t do this. There have been some rumblings of Seattle going underslot on Jojo Parker or Ike Irish, but they are ranked #9 and #11 respectively. That’s less of a reach than Wood looks to be.
Ultimately, I think Seattle will take the best remaining of the three LHP. And it sounds, more and more, like the LHP will be picked 1, 2, 3. So Seattle would be getting the third of three, unless they figure out that, with the biggest overall draft bonus pool in MLB, they could buy down the #1 player on their board by outbidding the Nats and Angels, who sit in front of them. Does Seattle realize they could do this? Does Seattle know how to do this? Does the guy Seattle wants the most also want to come to Seattle enough to not be picked at the ceremonial #1 pick??? Who knows.
And, really, there’s a chance the guy Seattle secretly prefers might naturally fall to #3.
When I did some last minute pitch-metric research yesterday; I actually came away thinking Kade Anderson is not the runaway, unanimous #1 LHP in this class. I was already spooked by the homerun-allowed rate that he gave up last year (1.2 HR per 9 vs 0.9 from Liam Doyle and 0.7 from Jamie Arnold). And there’s, at least, a yellow flag on Anderson that he did have Tommy John surgery in April 2022. I’m just not sold.
On paper…Liam Doyle should be the consensus #1. He’s got the better fastball of the trio, which in every other year would be the thing everyone latched onto. I suppose Anderson is getting the benefit of the most recent recency bias factor, since he pitched a complete game shutout in the second-to-last game in the entire college baseball season, with the win in game one of the College World Series finals. I think that is what is happening.
And Arnold doesn’t have any one thing that would put him above the other two. He’s got the more unusual mechanics of the three which lead to some truly outlier numbers. His release height is insane. None of these guys are very tall…Anderson listed 6’2″ but looks taller due to slender build…Doyle listed 6’2″ but I would be shocked if he broke 6’0″ at the Combine…and Arnold is listed 6’1″ which feels most accurate. But of those three, it’s Arnold that ends up getting furthest down the mound with a 6.7′ extension measurement. Anderson is only 6.2′ and Doyle was harder to find, so I have him as an unconfirmed 6.5′.
Anderson, in so many ways, doesn’t really feel like a Mariner guy, to me. This may never come to be tested as the consensus thought has now completely shifted to having the Nationals take Anderson at #1.1 over HS bat Ethan Holliday.
On paper, Arnold is easily the third of three from these LHP in terms of his 2025 season performance. But if I had to choose based on intangibles; I think Arnold is #1. Doyle is a bit of a psycho on the mound, which tends to lend itself more to a bullpen guy. Anderson is kind of the driest persona of the three, but that could be said of George Kirby, too, but Kirby has been a pretty solid pro.
Looking at the MLB big board (which is probably due for an update before next Sunday)…Anderson is ranked #2, Arnold is ranked #4, and Doyle is ranked #8. Jim Callis’ most recent mock draft from a couple days ago has them being picked: #1.1 Anderson, #1.2 Doyle, #1.8 Arnold. And this mock might be spoilers for how the MLB big board would re-rank in its next iteration.
If Arnold goes into the draft ranked at, or close to, #8 overall; I think he’s also a guy you potentially look to ask for an underslot deal if you draft him at #3. I’m not sold that Seattle does the underslot thing with their first pick. I would LOVE for them to, but historically they really haven’t done that. They will pay their first overall pick at roughly slot money, if not over, and then they look to save money elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. I don’t know if this is a Seattle philosophy when it comes to the draft, or if players aren’t interested in coming all the way to South Alaska for underslot money, or what, but it’s worth noting.
By process of elimination…
#1.3 – LHP, Florida State, Jamie Arnold
I’m pretty resigned to the idea that whoever this pick ends up being; it will be an underwhelming choice, with an underwhelming future career (see also: Emerson Hancock). I think that is what this draft will be. Which isn’t to say the pick will be a bust, or anything. I just expect the future value of this draft class will come from other picks/rounds.
On the positive spin side…how fun that our #1 pick comes from the same school, FSU, as our current #1 player, Cal Raleigh? Yay.
If we do take Arnold, and we do sign him for underslot (let’s say $1.5mill under), we may be able to make up for the underwhelming nature of his choice in the aggregate.
Bonus slot = $9,504,400. Signing amount = $8,000,000. Savings = $1,504,400.
#1.35cb – RHP, Louisville, Patrick Forbes
There is some thought that, because we went underslot college arm at #3, that our next pick will be overslot prep player like we did in 2024 with Cijntje and Sloan. I am going to argue that that strategy is still in play, but it happens at pick #2.57. After all, Sloan was picked at #2.55 last year. This pick at #35 was not in the formula in 2024. We could, in theory, do another college pitcher (which I’ve already established is a “need” for the team) before switching up to the overslot prep player phase.
Forbes is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft. When I saw that Callis had him going #37 overall in his new mock; I was elated. I would love to snipe him at #35.
I’ve budgeted to sign him for $2,500,000 which is only $258k underslot for this pick.
#2.57 – SS, Don Bosco Prep, Nick Becker
Because of the strength of this prep shortstop class; I wanted to see what it would look like to try to buy down one of the many athletic guys that play there to the second round. I wanted it to be a guy with a fielding grade at the top of the class. There is only one 70-grade (Billy Carlson) in the entire class, and then there were two 60-grades (excluding college, leaving us Steele Hall and Lucas Franco), and then four more prep SS with 55-grades: Nick Becker, Daniel Pierce, Eli Willits, John Stuetzer.
Carlson, Hall, Willits, Pierce all have projection of being top 15 overall picks, so I don’t think you get them at #57. If I remember correctly, Sloan had pre-draft ranking of about #19 from which he “dropped” to #55. But he was also a prep righthanded pitcher, which is the riskiest demographic. A prep shortstop probably won’t fall as far.
I basically came away looking at Becker (ranked #51) and Franco (ranked #67) as the two plausible candidates that I also liked as players. Becker is a RHB, Franco is a LHB. Both are currently listed 6’3″+, with Becker being the stouter of the two. I’m leaning towards Becker due to his righthandedness. There are two things I want to address for the Seattle farm system: righthanded hitting and lefthanded pitching.
I’ve got Becker budgeted for a $2,750,000 bonus. This is down slightly from the $3,000,000 that they gave Sloan, but he was projected as a top 20 pick who got drafted at #55. Becker is the #51 player that they are drafting at #57. So, a slight degradation there should be agreeable. This is still $1.1mill over the slot for this pick.
#3.91 – OF, Purvis HS, Jacob Parker
Parker really came to my attention after I began studying his twin brother, Jojo Parker, who is expected to be picked higher of the two. The weird thing when I looked at both brothers: Jojo gets all the love for his hit tool while his power is pretty underrated, and Jacob gets all the love for his power while his hit tool is pretty underrated.
Take high school scoring and stat-tracking with however much relevance as you want, but Jacob has published season statline of: .525/.678/1.846, 45 BB, 13 SO, 17 HR. Which is bananas relative to, basically, every other high school player I looked at.
Many of the things that were relevant for Jojo and his connection to Seattle still apply to Jacob. Both played for the Mariners’ scout team in the East Coast Pro event last summer. Those were players chosen by Mariners’ scouts from states in the Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, etc area.
Jacob was the co-winner of the HS Homerun Derby at the 2024 MLB All-star Game. Though, Jacob actually had the higher total of 24 homeruns to Josiah Hartshorn’s 23 in the derby qualifier; which should have been the tie-breaker, in my opinion. In that contest, Parker beat out names like Ethan Holliday, Brady Ebel, and Xavier Neyens in the preliminary competition.
Jacob really kinda reminds me of a lefthanded Pete Alonso.
I’m projecting Parker to sign for $1,150,000; overslot this pick’s figure by $348k.
#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin
Seattle drafted a couple of underslot, college relievers with their 3rd and 5th round picks last year. I don’t know that Franklin is in the same category as he’s only recently 21 years old and a junior with eligibility remaining, but I do think the intent is similar. High octane, fast-moving bullpen arm.
I’m giving him the full slot amount for this pick of $617,200.
#5.152 – RHP, UNCW, Zane Taylor
Seattle has been pretty strong at finding those hidden gems in draft classes and this year’s Bryan Woo memorial pick goes to Taylor. Not the biggest player, but Zane did touch 97.7mph at the recent MLB Draft Combine, and he’s got a big horizontal breaking secondary, and some of the best control in the class. This would be a strong pick.
Taylor is a senior, so I’m giving him an underslot $237,400 bonus.
#6.182 – C, Wright State, Boston Smith
Smith is arguably the best power-hitting catcher in this class, and he hits lefthanded which is a premium for catchers. The glove and arm aren’t too shabby, either. He’s a senior, so the bonus doesn’t need to be that high, but the pick probably needs to be higher than what the media is projecting.
This is another $237,400 bonus agreement.
#7.212 – RHP, Shawnee Mission HS, Michael Winter
I had Winter in my previous mock, but at a later round. As I’ve continued to study him; I think I want to lock him in sooner. I’m really liking this kid’s makeup, and drafting him this late should mitigate some of the inherent risk on prep righties.
With all of the underslot savings I have so far, and will create in the next few picks, I can offer Winter $1.170mill bonus before breaking into the taxable penalty range. If, for some reason, Seattle can’t come to agreement with Winter on an amount that gets him away from college commitment to Dartmouth; they will lose $276,200 from their overall bonus pool. But we’ve saved $894k from all other picks, which, if added to the value of any pick in rounds 11-20 of $150k, and we’ve got enough money to spend $1.044mill on an overslot guy in the second half of the draft.
#8.242 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola
Coppola remains a holdover from my previous mocks. The injury concerns also remain, but so does the potential upside. I still like the cost/risk/upside with him should the M’s find a way to manage his health and workload, etc.
I’ve got his bonus planned for $187,400.
#9.272 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks
Hawks is another reliever-only pick that could move fast through the system. His 2025 went: 1.60 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 with 8 saves. He’s a senior, and I’ll sign him for $112,400 bonus.
#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino
Depino isn’t the best defensive 3B in my study, but he might be the best bat at the spot. He hit .354/.505/1.235 with 21 doubles, 20 HR, and 21 SB this year.
Bonus will also be $112,400.
#11.332 – LHP, Georgia, Alton Davis
Davis is a dangerous profile. And, really, it’s not one that usually pans out. Last year at Georgia he had an 8.14 ERA, 1.952 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9 and 5.1 BB/9. The good news is: he’s 6’5″ and throwing 98mph from the left side with a disgusting slider. And just a great athlete on the mound. If you can fix this…what a weapon he’d be out of the pen.
#12.362 – 1B, Loyola Marymount, Beau Ankeney
Ankeney has that big, power firstbase profile you always hope to find. He’s 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.
#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum
Fossum is the local product I highlighted in my last mock that has rebuilt himself after transferring out of UW, and starting to work with the crew at Driveline. He hit .382/.496/1.274 last year with 23 HR, and showed a decent arm from the outfield.
#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels
Daniels was the 2B player I found and liked the best. He hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR and 75 RBI this year.
#15.452 – RHP, Texas, Max Grubbs
There are relievers with better strikeout numbers than Grubbs, but something about his stuff really popped for me when I watched him.
#16.482 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux
Thibodeaux was one of the best pure hitters in college last season. Only a 5’8″ build, but he hit .439/.544/1.391 with 18 HR and 24 SB. Could be a nice little leadoff man down the road.
#17.512 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book
I’ve seen some of the guys that scored particularly high in my annual pitching study, but who didn’t have overwhelmingly powerful stuff, still turn out to be solid performers in the minors. Book could/would be one of that profile. He’s 6’4″ with only about a 91mph fastball from the southpaw side, but he still managed a sub-1.000 WHIP and over 12 SO/9 for the year. At minimum, he should eat a lot of innings in the minors.
#18.542 – C, Georgia State, Colin Hynek
Hynek is a flawed prospect with only a .230 average last year, but he hit 18 HR and has an above-average arm behind the plate. He’s worth a flyer this late.
#19.572 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines
I had Hines in my previous mock but I was self-admittedly not sure how they would have money to sign him away from his commitment to Alabama. The plan now is: if they don’t sign Michael Winter, the money budgeted for him moves down all the way to Hines here in the 19th round. If they do sign Winter; they probably let Hines walk. They did a version of this last year when they picked Miami closer Andrew Walters, also in the 19th round, and he didn’t sign.
Hines has one of the biggest statistical lines in the high school ranks this year. It goes: Jacob Parker, Jojo Parker, and then Hines, followed by Josh Hammond. Hines hit 20 HR this season. His batspeed is crazy. I have bigtime questions on his defensive position…he might, honestly, only be a DH at the end of the day… but if you can dream on Nelson Cruz with him, that’s still a valuable player.
#20.302 – OF, UTSA, Mason Lytle
Throughout this mock, I had to make sacrifices in order to get certain (every) player. One of the sacrifices I made repeatedly was to give up an outfielder for a different, probably more premium position. So at the end of this draft I really wanted to find a very solid, glove-forward, centerfield-capable, senior-sign type of player. Lytle checked a lot of boxes.
He’s 24 years old this past spring. He won the AAC Defensive Player of the Year. And he hit .366/.424/.984 with 10 HR, 22 doubles, 24 BB, 23 SO, and 17 SB on the year.
The need for the Mariners in this draft is college pitching…I have them picking nine of them. The best draft strategy in this draft is targeting high upside prep players…I have them picking four of them. I think this is a pretty strong breakdown and balance. Hopefully, Seattle can actually execute something similar.
Seattle Seamocks 