By Jared Stanger
Welcome to July, 2025. We are now less than two weeks away from the MLB Draft. Cliff’s notes summary: the Mariners have the biggest draft bonus pool in all of MLB to work with, they have the #3 overall pick, and it is a terrible year to have that high of a pick. The top end of this draft class is widely considered underwhelming, but the depth is thought to be good. The two players currently most associated with Seattle at pick #3, Oregon State SS Aiva Arquette and Florida State LHP Jamie Arnold, would probably not be drafted in the top 8-10 picks in most years.
Some people think that the Mariners NEED to draft a college player that could move quickly through the minors so as to help the MLB club sooner than later in this “competitive window” we’re in where we have so much young, controllable starting pitching. I disagree with that thought because the Mariners have one of the deepest farm systems in the league. Much of that depth projects to be ready to debut in MLB this year or next. A 2025 draftpick from this weak first round pool will not, likely, surpass the players that Seattle already has between A+ Everett and AAA Tacoma in twelve months.
So then…what does one do? I’ve talked for several weeks now that Seattle could, in a sense, trade down the #3 pick. How does one do that in a league that doesn’t allow trades of most draftpicks? You don’t sign the player you pick in a given round. That pick then becomes guaranteed to land one pick later in the next year’s draft. So, for example, Seattle’s #3 pick this year would become the #4 pick in 2026. A small sacrifice to make, but you might actually come out ahead in the aggregate as the 2026 draft class looks much stronger at the top of the draft than 2025.
Seattle will not do this. No MLB club ever really consciously does this. Mostly, that reasoning comes from the fact that the overwhelming largest chunk (about 55%) of Seattle’s total pool is tied to the #3 pick. If you don’t sign a player in that slot; you lose the corresponding bonus pool allotment. And bonus pool, more than anything, equals draft flexibility. The draft golden rule: He who has the bonus pool, makes the rules. Seattle could pre-negotiate with, basically, any player in the draft to the largest single signing bonus in the league. Which could, in theory, mean they could get the #1 player with the #3 pick (should they choose to spend the money that way).
They could also choose to spread the $9.5million designated for the #3 pick out across multiple picks/players, and therefore take advantage of the expected depth of this class. Because Seattle won’t use the “trade down” strategy, it becomes the best option, in my opinion, to spread the bonus pool out to multiple players.
Which players do you spread the bonus pool around to? In a year with mediocre college talent; you draft for upside from the ranks of the high school players. This is the best strategy for this specific draft class.
#1.3 – SS, Corona HS, Billy Carlson
I had Carlson in my earlier mock draft and I’m coming back to him now as we’re closer to the draft. I did a pretty deep dive (the top 150 players on the board per MLB) simply logging the highest graded tools for all players. Baseball grading scales top out at an 80 grade for any given trait (hit, power, run, arm, defense, or any specific pitch type for pitchers).
In this class, there are zero 80-grade traits, there are two 75-grade traits (both are LHP fastballs), and ten players with a 70-grade trait. All of the 70-grade traits from pitchers are fastballs, and the majority of 70’s for position players are from run-tools. The big outlier on the grading scale is the defense grade for Billy Carlson. He is the only 70 score in the top 150 players (and probably the entire draft if I had checked).
I also came up with my own metric to put all position players on the same grading scale. When I did that, the #1 overall position player was Carlson. I don’t know why he isn’t ranked higher on most boards (he is #7 per MLB, but that should, arguably, be like #4). Well, I have a guess. It’s cause all media (and probably most teams) over-value present graded power. The “power tool” for baseball players is basically akin to the forty time for NFL players. It’s easiest to see and understand. But that doesn’t mean it’s best or right.
Carlson is the smoothest player in this whole class. Yes, that is how he moves on defense at short, which he rightly gets credit for, but it’s also his actions at the plate, which he doesn’t get proper credit for. This guy understands how his body works, and he knows how to use it. I think he has an innate understanding of launch angle. All that he needs is to get stronger. Which is probably one of the easier things to fix when talking about a guy that is only just out of high school.
Now, for the business side of things. Carlson is committed to Tennessee for college should he decide to, either, wholesale forego the draft, or not be able to negotiate an agreeable signing bonus in the next 12 days. MLB teams will know this information before the draft, but the greater public may not (some players announce these things beforehand, but many don’t).
Because Carlson is ranked the #7 player in the class; should he get drafted earlier than that; there may be an expectation that he take an underslot deal that is closer to the #7 pick value. The exact value of the Mariners’ #3 pick is $9,504,400. The exact value of pick #7 is $7,149,900. If Seattle takes one of the lower ranked players, and signs him for closer to $7,500,000; that player wins by getting more than they were projected to get, and the club wins because they have ~$2mill pocketed that can be offered to overslot players later in the draft.
Honestly, if Seattle is as good at scouting/drafting as their reputation suggests; they should be able to do this maneuver at a high success rate. You’re, in a sense, getting 2-4 upside players for the price of one.
If not Carlson; it would be pretty interesting to see Seattle go underslot on Arkansas RHP Gage Wood. He has a small sample size on his 2025 performance, and there is a medical question on his shoulder health, but when he has pitched this year; he has been arguably the best pitcher in the class. And it doesn’t appear that he will make it to #35 now.
#1.35 – CF, IMG Academy, Sean Gamble
The second part of going underslot at pick #3 is the behind-the-scenes negotiating that has to happen quickly before this next pick. Seattle can/should immediately start talking to the high school players they covet that are ranked, roughly, between #12-#30. Seattle needs to use their bonus pool superiority to “outbid” the teams that are actually on the clock in that range so that our target player tells those other clubs not to draft him because his signing figure is too high (but it’s not gonna be too high for Seattle).
The prep players in the 12-30 range are: SS Steele Hall, SS Daniel Pierce, 2B Kayson Cunningham, LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, 3B Gavin Fien, OF Slater de Brun, 3B Xavier Neyens, 3B Josh Hammond, OF Sean Gamble. My eye is drawn to the last three names on that list.
Xavier Neyens is the local product out of Mt Vernon, WA with bigtime power from the lefthand side.
Josh Hammond is one of the higher ranked pure hitters in my study. He has some possible two-way play ability, and hits/throws righthanded.
Sean Gamble has a great overall profile with high marks on all traits. He could be a second baseman, but more likely goes to centerfield. He’s got a pretty good eye hitting from the left side.
These guys have college commitments to respected college programs: Oregon State, Wake Forest, and Vanderbilt, respectively. It could take a decent bonus to sign them away from college. The natural bonus slot for pick #35 is $2,758,300. If any of these three players were drafted at their matching big board value (they are ranked players #25, #26, #27); their signing bonus companion would be between $3.6mill down to $3.3mill. That is roughly the amount I would project to spend for overslot at pick #35.
I’m going with Gamble over the other two options for his position-versatility. He might be a second baseman, but he can definitely play centerfield. I’ve kind of got him projected like a Corbin Carroll type of guy.
#2.57 – LHP, Johnson HS, Johnny Slawinski
In a move similar to the drafting of Ryan Sloan at pick #55 last year; I’m taking my favorite prep lefthander in the 2nd round. I love the present pitchability he brings, and I’m looking to help him add velo. He has a college commitment to Texas A&M, so I’m putting Bryce Miller on the phone with him to help upsell the M’s pitching lab. And then, of course, I go overslot the #57 pick that starts at $1,636,800 and I will push that number up to $2.75mill to get him signed.
#3.91 – RHP, Tulane, Michael Lombardi
I had a couple college arms that I had my eye on as potential targets at #35, but both have seemed to elevate out of reach of that pick, so I’m turning to the next tier. Lombardi has a similar profile to Patrick Forbes in that both were two-way players in college, but with a new freedom to concentrate on pitching; I think his game can be elevated.
He is only a junior at Tulane, so I will go slightly over the $851,800 slot to get him signed. I’m calling it a $900,000 bonus.
#4.122 – RHP, Tennessee, Tanner Franklin
Franklin, like most of the arms coming out of Tennessee this year (and in recent years), has a bigtime arm. I counted at least six college pitchers that hit triple-digits this year, and Franklin was one. I like his overall profile a bit more than most of the others, and as a junior class guy; I will give him overslot money, as well. This pick is worth $617,200 and I’m penciling him in for $700,000. As a true reliever, this could, potentially, be a very fast-mover once in the system.
#5.152 – RHP, Zane Taylor
I think the second and third tiers of college pitching will go pretty fast in this draft, so I’m pushing the issue on the guys I like best from those tiers. Taylor is one of my favorite starters in this whole class, so I’m really just hoping that he lasts this long. He did recently turn 23 years old, so that may help him drop a bit, and then we can potentially save a bit of money on him as a senior signing.
I’ve allotted $237,400 to sign him.
#6.182 – C, Wright St, Boston Smith
I guess I worry that most of my favorite guys will be gone before I’ve got them listed in every mock, but that certainly applies to Boston Smith. He is one of my favorite guys in the entire draft. This is a lefty-hitting catcher with bigtime power and a pretty underrated catch/throw skillset behind the plate. He is a senior, so as long as he’s still on the board; I think we can go underslot at $237,400…identical to Zane Taylor.
#7.212 – LHP, Florida, Pierce Coppola
Coppola is a holdover from my previous mocks, and I just continue to juggle where I think I can pick him before the league does. Restating the backstory…this is an overaged guy with bigtime stuff and performance when he has played, but he’s barely played across four years in college. Huge injury redflags. But Seattle has taken chances on many guys like him before, including Bryan Woo and Teddy McGraw. If we have to move him to the bullpen to put less tax on his arm…so be it.
Bonus money here will be $187,400.
#8.242 – RHP, Vanderbilt, Sawyer Hawks
Another pure reliever; Hawks ticks a lot of boxes at 6’4″/225lbs after transferring from the Air Force Academy to Vanderbilt before this last year. A 1.60 ERA and 8 saves in 18 appearances in the SEC is nothing to sneeze at.
Another senior, the bonus for him is the same as Coppola: $187,400.
#9.272 – OF, Kent State, Jake Casey
Casey is the son of former MLB All-Star, Sean Casey, and he had a great year at Kent State hitting .356/.500/1.236 with 17 HR and 20 SB.
We’re still in senior-sign mode and Casey qualifies. That, and a small-school discount, means he gets $112,400.
#10.302 – 3B, Rhode Island, Anthony Depino
It’s not necessarily a strength of this draft class, but I think it’s a need in the Mariner farm system to add some more righthanded thump. Depino hit .354/.505/1.235 this year with 20 HR and 21 SB.
I’ve got his bonus the same as the 9th round: $112,400.
#11.332 – RHP, Michael Winter
Seattle has occasionally used their pick in the 11th round to draft an overslot player. Well…technically rounds 11-20 are not slotted. They all have the same max value of $150,000 with anything above that counting against their total bonus allowance for rounds 1-10.
Last year they gave RHP Christian Little $200,000 in the 11th round out of LSU. In 2019 they gave C Carter Bins $350,000 (this was when the max was $125,000 before counting towards bonus pool) out of Fresno State. And in 2018, they gave prep RHP Damon Casetta-Stubbs $325,000 also in the 11th round.
I especially like this strategy in 2025 when Seattle is starting with such a big bonus pool. That is why I drafted six consecutive senior signs in rounds 5-10, and why I noted such specific signing bonuses for them. I am planning to put away a total of $850,000 in bonus pool rounds 1-10, so that I can add that to the “slot” for pick #332 of $150,000, so that I can draft and sign my fourth (and final) high school player.
Every year there is a slew of high school players ranked as top 10 round players, but who go undrafted because they wanted a certain dollar figure to sign away from college. I want to have a full seven-figure amount to be able to offer them.
Who this player will be is very tough to forecast. This is going to be a guy that has “fallen” anywhere from three to eight entire rounds due to a price tag that isn’t publicly-known.
Michael Winter is ranked at exactly #200 by MLB’s big board. He is a 6’5″/220lb pitcher out of Kansas who only just turned 18 in June, and who has a college commitment to Dartmouth, in the Ivy League. That’s an interesting school to try to figure out. It could absolutely suggest that Winter has education as a priority. It could also suggest that he didn’t get many big offers from schools better known for their baseball programs.
If Winter has the grades/IQ for Dartmouth…maybe he’s smart enough to know Seattle has a strong pitching lab, and that could pull him away from school. Well, that and a big friggen check. The bonus here will be $1,000,000 (for Winter, or whichever prep player they can agree with).
#12.362 – 1B, Loyola, Beau Ankeney
As I mentioned earlier, I’m looking for power-hitting righthanded bats. Ankeney is 6’4″/235lbs and hit .358/.453/1.164 with 22 HR this year.
#13.392 – OF, Youngstown St, Kyle Fossum
Fossum is a local product…born in Bellevue, went to HS at Eastside Catholic, and played three years at UW before transferring to Youngstown before this year. He’s also been known to get his work in at Driveline. And maybe that’s why Fossum’s bat took a huge jump this year allowing him to hit .382/.496/1.274 with 23 HR in 220 AB’s after only hitting 1 HR in 65 AB’s in his entire UW career.
#14.422 – 2B, UConn, Ryan Daniels
Daniels I found while trying to identify a second baseman that I liked, since my mock didn’t have one yet. A good-sized athlete at 6’0″/200lbs, Daniels hit .365/.476/1.220 with 18 HR this year.
#15.452 – OF, Southern, Cardell Thibodeaux
Thibs I had in my previous mock, and I’m keeping him. He was one of the highest-scoring players of all positions in my hitting analysis. A huge average guy at .439/.544/1.199, but he also showed good pop for his small stature of 5’8″/175lbs with 18 HR.
#16.482 – LHP, St Joseph’s, Colton Book
Book is not an eye test guy. His stuff is far from over-powering. But he really popped in my pitching metric, and so I’m trusting that a bit, while not going too crazy with a high pick on him. Listed 6’4″/210lbs, he had a 3.53 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 12.7 SO/9 on the year.
#17.512 – OF, American Christian, Eric Hines
This is very much a flyer pick. Hines is a 6’3″/230lb outfielder with a commitment to Alabama. He’s got a pretty weak throwing arm, I don’t love the run-tool, he probably maxes out as a DH, but the dude hit like crazy last year to the tune of a .438 avg and a 1.508 WHIP. Plus, to the best I could find, he hit the most HR from the high school ranks in the country with 20 HR. I don’t know how much it would take to sign him, and I haven’t earmarked additional funds for him, but sometimes you make a pick and see what happens. Maybe we get the 11th round pick signed for less than $1mill. Maybe Seattle dips into the penalty range over their bonus allotment that means it gets taxed additionally (they could go up to $850k over slot before hitting second level of penalties). Maybe Hines just really wants to sign.
#18.542 – C, Colin Hynek
I, personally, like drafting two catchers every year, but Seattle has also seemed able to find a decent second catcher in the undrafted free agency period after the draft in multiple recent years.
Hynek has some work to do as a hitter after slashing .230/.396/.982 this year, but he did hit 18 HR while showing decent receiving skills.
#19.572 – LHP, Western Kentucky, Cal Higgins
Who doesn’t love a guy named Cal. A big boy at 6’5″/240lbs, Higgins had a 1.87 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, and 10.8 SO/9 out of the bullpen for the Hilltoppers this year. He’s recently committed to Texas in the transfer portal, so this might end up like Brian Walters was for Seattle in the 2024 Draft…an unsigned late round reliever.
#20.602 – 1B/3B, Austin Peay, Ray Velazquez
Velazquez has one of the biggest discrepancies between where he came in on my hitting metric, and where he lands on media draft boards…which equals value. He is a former Vanderbilt player, but never got much opportunity while there. After transferring to play for the Governors, Velazquez hit .364/.479/1.207 with 18 HR this year.
I have zero expectations that Seattle does anything but draft chalk at the #3 pick. They’ve never been creative with their drafting on their first pick. They usually draft a player that is media-ranked in the range they pick. They usually pay him roughly slot, if not slightly over. They usually leave someone on the board that they would have been better off drafting.
Fortunately, they’ve had better success with later picks. If they can come away from this draft with two future MLB top 100 prospects from the picks between 35-212; it will be a successful draft. But still…it’d be nice to see them over-achieve that considering the opportunity that their luck leading up to this draft has afforded them.
Seattle Seamocks 