By Jared Stanger

TThe 2025 NFL Draft starts six days from today. I may squeeze in a final mock next week, but as players have been ascending/descending value as we get closer, I’ve been running through simulations to try to pin down best strategy and gameplan. In doing that, I thought it might be fun to show you three of those simulations to kind of show some of the similarities and some of the pivot points where we might try some different things.

For me, every mock begins with a trade down. I’m not convinced Schneider will do this. Sometimes you just can’t do the trade in reality because reality is: you need a willing trade partner. But I WANT this trade. Badly.

The first trade in the mock is: #1.18 to Philadelphia for picks #1.32 + #2.64 + #5.161. Philly has a really strong roster, they may not have many holes to fill, so the idea of moving up for a player may appeal to them. It’s very appealing to me to not be precious with the #18 pick because I think this is one of those years the first round isn’t awesome. I much prefer stacking picks on day two, and Philadelphia is one of the few teams you can get a first AND a second in trade back, and then the fifth just rounds out the values.

MOCK #1

#1.32 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

This is the starting point of all three of these mocks. It’s kind of just an educated hunch on my part. And that’s all I have to say about that…for now.

In this first version of these trio of mocks; I’m going to stick with our next pick at #2.50 and not trade up. I could see Seattle being aggressive this year on TE. I, personally, don’t like the value of a first round TE. Historically, those players aren’t the most elite at their position, and the sweet spot has actually been in the second to early third.

#2.50 – TE, Miami, Elijah Arroyo

Although Seattle has had Mason Taylor in for an official visit, it is Arroyo that pops in pretty much every analysis I’ve done for the position, especially when isolating for receiving vs blocking TE’s. And, actually, Arroyo doesn’t score terribly as a blocker.

We’ve heard rumors that Seattle is looking for a big bodied WR type after the departure of DK Metcalf, and I kinda think Arroyo should get some consideration in that category. His 16.86 yards per reception mark was #1 in the country for TE, and it was also top 50 in the country for all positions.

My only hesitation with this pick is that I do kinda get some Austin Sefarian Jenkins vibes from Arroyo. But that could have potentially been said about Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski when they were coming out of school. If Arroyo matures appropriately; we get a steal. If not…we might get a Netflix documentary.

As I’ve experimented with simulators with multiple trades; at some point I discovered I could accomplish much of what I was looking to do with fewer, bigger trades. One that I really came to like was Seattle trading pick #2.52 + #3.82 + #3.92 to Carolina, where former Seahawk scout Dan Morgan is the GM now, and the return to Seattle is #2.57 + #3.74 + #4.111 + #4.114.

The primary reason for this trade is: moving up in the third round, and I think we can afford to do it because I think there will be multiple options we will like at #2.57.

#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

There was a time when I wasn’t comfortable risking to wait on taking a QB. I recently came to better appreciation for Will Howard, and Seattle invited Jalen Milroe to a 30 visit, so they must have some comfortability with him. Now, having some level of comfort with a QB mix of: Jaxson Dart, Shough, Milroe, Howard…I think I feel safer waiting until this pick to draft one.

#2.64 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

Robinson has been a mainstay of my mock drafting this year, and one of my biggest challenges has been trying to move around the board with enough precision to still draft him as his stock has risen.

I’ve experimented with taking OL here and trying to get Robinson in the 3rd, but I’ve found this is the more consistent path to accomplishing my favored overall draft.

#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

Do I think Wilson is still on the board this late? Not really. But if I’m given the option of pushing down the position that John Schneider openly hates, or pushing down the position that Seattle drafted as the first pick ever in the Mike Macdonald era; I’m pushing down the Center, and getting Ty Robinson earlier than the national media thinks.

#4.111 – RB, Miami, Damien Martinez

This is the biggest gap between picks in this mock (37 picks), and so when you finally get to the other side of it…you kind of have a bunch of things you want to pick. Fortunately, Seattle has two picks in a four-pick span.

It felt like, as I’ve experimented with multiple passes through simulations, the running backs I covet have more consistently been picked before I was able to get them. I’m currently looking at a group consisting of Martinez, DJ Giddens, and Bhayshul Tuten as targets with this pick. With the new OC; I’m not totally certain which kind of RB he prefers, and so this trio kind of represents some different “type” options. Tuten was really fast and ran a lot of zone concepts in college. Giddens is sort of mid-speed, mid-size and has the most shiftiness. Martinez is the biggest, slowest of the three, but also represents the most thumping, contact balance style.

#4.114 – WR, Washington St, Kyle Williams

The biggest change I’m consistently making in my mock drafts recently, is that I’m moving on from Dont’e Thornton. Between Arroyo at TE, and the two WR I’m bringing in with this mock; I kinda think I’m getting a better overall version of what Thornton is, and what DK was in aggregate, without some of the holes in their game, by going after receivers the way I am in this mock.

I’ve had Williams in prior mocks, and I’m coming back to him again now, after Seattle included him in their 30 official visits. He might be Doug Baldwin 2.0.

#4.137 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

Lundt was primarily the RT for Connecticut last year, but as I’ve been studying it…he’s actually kind of the poor-man’s version of Tate Ratledge in this class. Ratledge was almost 6’7″/308lbs at the Combine with 32 2/8″ arms…Lundt was 6’7 1/2″, 304lbs, with 32 5/8″ arms. Lundt may end up at guard with that arm length. I wouldn’t give up on him at RT, but his quicker path to play time might come as a guard.

#5.161 – CB, California, Nohl Williams

I really like this spot to draft a CB. If Seattle can get either Williams or Zah Frazier; I think we’ll have underrated options to usurp either Josh Jobe or Riq Woolen from the starting lineup, and we’ll get better as a defense at tackling from both of Williams/Frazier.

Williams is not the fastest CB available, but his personality profile kind of reminds me of Quandre Diggs but in a corner body. This guy has a ton of “fuck around and find out” to his vibe. Which Riq does not have. And I think Riq is not long for the roster under Macdonald.

#5.172 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

To me, there isn’t a ton of logic to drafting a linebacker in the first three rounds, when your picks ideally are starters, after Seattle brought back Ernest Jones. Plus, this draft doesn’t have a good class of LB. The better logic is: get a backup with upside. In that regard, I’ve landed on Simon as my favorite option.

With multiple picks in quick succession at 172 & 175; I would like to move down 175 and add a couple picks in the sixth round. Trade #5.175 to the Chargers for picks #6.181 + #6.209.

#6.181 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

This might be my riskiest call. Not risky in terms of the player, but risky in terms of waiting so long to get him. I think Teslaa might be quietly an ascending player in real draft rooms. He’s a legit 6’4″/214lbs and ran a 4.43s forty, with great overall athletic testing. THIS, along with Arroyo’s running/receiving ability, is why my first WR pick for Seattle was 5’11”.

Teslaa might be poor man’s Emeka Egbuka. I have trouble picking Egbuka in the first round when our roster currently holds Jaxon Smith Njigba and Cooper Kupp, but getting Egbuka-lite in the 6th round is fine by me.

#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson

I really have zero feel for what Seattle is doing with their open nose tackle spot with the absence of Johnathan Hankins. They aren’t bringing NT’s in for visits, so we can’t get a feel for their NT body type. Maybe they actually want to move forward with the combo of Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed getting their NT snaps.

Regardless, I think there are enough draftable NT in this class to at least take a flyer on someone late. I’ve got Jackson, Nazir Stackhouse, and Cam Horsley as options. Hell, if he falls far enough, get JJ Pegues back in the mix.

#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue

In ten years, we may look back on this draft class and judge the success/failure of it based on Cabeldue. If they draft him, if they don’t, if he’s good, if he’s not. Cabes started all 12 Jayhawk games at Tackle last year, so he might be kind of a more athletic of Jake Curhan from a couple years ago. My research says his arms were measured 33 2/8″, which is borderline acceptable for an OT, but I could see him also becoming a pretty good OG. I might give him first shot at the LG opening.

#7.234 – RB, Texas Tech, Tahj Brooks

Honestly, I’m not sure how I ended up with this pick in this mock. I may have lost track of where I was in the mock, or which mocks I had got a RB. It’s not super important as it’s the last pick. This pick could be a second TE…it could be a third WR…it could be a safety, which I really haven’t found one I like.

In reality, it might be good to draft a fullback here, but most of the guys I’ve sort of passively studied for fullback aren’t even available in the simulation.

In these subsequent mocks; if a player matches up with the same player at the same pick as a prior mock; I’m not giving any commentary. I will only go into the new moves of each variation.

MOCK #2

Trade back #18 to Philly again.

#1.32 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

Now, at some point in the early 2nd round; I think it’s potentially likely that Seattle will trade up from one of their two picks. Because we added a 5th rounder from Philly; I am willing to package #50 plus one of their 5th rounders to move up six spots to try to cut in line for a certain player. I’ve found the highest I can trade up without using a 3rd or 4th round pick is to get to Dallas’ #44. So it goes: #50 + #175 to Dallas for #44.

#2.44 – CB, East Carolina, Shavon Revel

I’ve talked in the recent past that I kinda think Seattle is looking to draft a Corner earlier than we might realize with, basically, no turnover in the Corner room after last year. I think we might be prepping to FORCE some turnover. So we need reinforcements. I really like Revel. I hated when he got hurt, but at the same time, his injury is the only reason he’s potentially still on the board here.

He measured at the Combine 6’2″/194lbs with 32 5/8″ arms. Legit big corner size. Reports are that he’s got low 4.40 speed when healthy. His injury was an ACL, which could be concerning, but Seattle did bring him in for a 30 visit so that they could get their own doctors to give him a physical.

This pick FEELS more like what Seattle wants to do than my personal projection of Nohl Williams.

Again, we do the big trade with Carolina for multiple pick swaps.

#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

#2.64 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

#4.111 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

After Arroyo, Ferguson might be the second-best receiving TE in this draft. Some of his metrics stack up really favorably with some of the best TE in the NFL currently. This would be a great value if he’s still on the board.

#4.114 – RB, Miami, Damien Martinez

#4.137 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

#5.161 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

In this version of a mock, Kyle Williams was not picked in favor of the TE earlier, so I’m using an earlier pick on Teslaa. Which, honestly, feels like a more probable range for Teslaa to be picked.

#5.181 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson

#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue

#7.234 – WR, Kansas, Quentin Skinner

As I wrote earlier, I’m moving on from Dont’e Thornton in all mocks. I think his price has gotten too high for what he is. He’s not a complete player. And that seemed more palatable when I was getting him in the 5th round.

Quentin Skinner is kind of poor-man’s Thornton. At 6’4″/195lbs, he’s a bit skinner than Dont’e, and his pro day speed was reportedly more in the 4.51s range when Thornton ran laser-timed 4.30s flat. But Skinner gives you similar skillset. He ranked #3 in the country in yards per catch (Thornton was #1). I really like Skinner’s willingness to give up his body for the catch. I really like who Skinner is between the ears. Drafting him at this range, maybe you sneak him onto the practice squad for the year, but in 2026 he slots nicely into a replacement for MVS.

MOCK #3

We’re starting with a similar thought process, but a slightly different trade. I don’t think this is nearly as plausible as the Philly trade, but I ran it through the simulator and the results were just too good not to wish on.

This time I’m going to trade #18 to Buffalo for picks #1.30 + #2.62 + #4.132. Buffalo has three picks in quick succession in the fifth that go: 169, 170, 173. I think adding one of those instead of a fourth is more likely. And, really, I could have done this structure with Philly for their fourth rounder at #134. I kinda like the pivot to Buffalo because their second round pick is a little higher than Philly, but also…Buffalo begins the draft with ten total picks to Philly’s eight. Buffalo might be more willing to move around the board.

#1.30 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau

Same trade with Dallas to move up.

#2.44 – CB, East Carolina, Shavon Revel

#2.57 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough

#2.62 – DT, Nebraska, Ty Robinson

#3.74 – OC, Georgia, Jared Wilson

#4.111 – WR, Washington State, Kyle Williams

#4.114 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson

#4.132 – OL, Connecticut, Chase Lundt

#4.137 – WR, Arkansas, Isaac Teslaa

#5.181 – LB, Ohio State, Cody Simon

#6.209 – DT, Florida, Cam Jackson

#7.223 – OL, Kansas, Bryce Cabeldue

#7.234 – DS, Wisconsin, Hunter Wohler

I really don’t love this Safety class, so I haven’t really spent much time forcing a pick there. Seattle has Julian Love and Coby Bryant returning. They signed D’Anthony Bell in free agency. I feel okay pushing safety down, if not off, the board.

Really, for this particular mock, I should have done running back here. Actually, a fullback might be the most realistic call.

Wohler has some interesting traits and production on his resume. He could be a nice special teams player out of the gate, and you see if you can develop him.

Ultimately, these mocks aren’t that different, and that is by design. There really shouldn’t be wild swings in variation. Not if you have a plan. There are a couple inflection points. In the second round…trade up or stand pat? In the second round…CB or TE? In the fourth round…which offensive skill position(s) do you take and which order?

There’s also player alternates for many of these picks. QB at #57…if Shough is gone, I think the current thought is Will Howard next. If you miss on Ty Robinson…the next guy at that profile might be a Jordan Burch or Saivion Jones. I talked about Zah Frazier being alternate to Nohl Williams. I talked about the running back alternates. Jalin Conyers is still of great interest to me if you miss on Ferguson. Teddye Buchanan is alternate to Cody Simon at LB.

If I had to choose one of these mocks as my #1 goal…of course it’s Mock #3. The luxury of having an extra 4th instead of an extra 5th allows me to get Kyle Williams, Terrance Ferguson, AND Isaac Teslaa. That’s beautiful, to me.

The negatives of Mock 3 are: 1) no running back. I’m like 90% sure John and Mike draft a running back at some point in this strong RB class. 2) I really don’t like pushing Jared Wilson into the third round. Maybe I should have used one of the 2nd’s on him, and tried to get Zah Frazier as my CB later on instead of Revel. In some ways that makes more sense with Revel’s injury, and Frazier’s full athletic testing. If healthy…I like Revel better, but it’s a big question. It sort of feels like the 2018 draft…Seattle drafts Rashaad Penny at #1.27 over Nick Chubb (#2.35) because Penny had immaculate medicals, and Chubb was coming off injury, but Chubb ended up the more productive career player by almost 5000 rushing yards.

The big question on all of these mocks is: what do you do with nose tackle? I think Seattle has been hiding something in their official visits. One of those things, I presume, is interior offensive line. I think there are clean prospects in that group that have allowed them, somewhat, to stay away. But the other spot is nose tackle. I just have a weird hunch that we’re all kind of disregarding an early pick on nose tackle too easily in the last month. Maybe Kenneth Grant, maybe Derrick Harmon, but the guy I’m super-intrigued by is Tyleik Williams. He feels like a guy that makes so much sense on paper, but who is never really connected to Seattle. And then they pick him and everybody is like, “whoa, didn’t see that coming.”

Tyleik, like Shavon, would make total sense as a target of the trade up scenario with Dallas. So maybe let’s start seeing that coming.