By Jared Stanger
It’s fun every once in a while to run your draft thoughts through a simulator. It can give you in real-time a sense of players that are moving up, guys that are cooling off, places in the draft where particular position groups may bunch up, and certainly it’s an easy way to look at potential draft trades. Because trades are so easy, I have self-imposed some trade rules: 1) I’ve given myself a max of 4 trades per mock, 2) I’m not allowed to accept any computer offered trades. When the simulator creates the trade offer(s), the value is sometimes overly beneficial to the player. AKA…they’re unrealistic.
I like to make all of my trades before I even start the simulator. This allows me to just focus on the board and the players still on it. So here is what those trades looked like:
I’ve done a lot of mocking and have found 13 picks would be amazing to be able to get to, but I think one of those would have to come from the trade of a player on the current roster. Obviously, I can’t make those kinds of trades in these simulators, but also that trade doesn’t really feel like it’s coming. Certainly not at the highest end of the quality on the roster (meaning DK Metcalf).
We’ve heard multiple times now that this particular draft class may only have 16-20 first round graded players. I believe it was Daniel Jeremiah who said that the difference between pick #20 and pick #40 is minimal. And then he even expanded on that to say that it might be #18 to #45. I like trading back this draft. I like the amount of talent that should be available on day two particularly, and I think, with the salary cap situation John Schneider still has work to do on, we kind of need to plan on trying to fill most of the roster holes via cheap, draft players rather than vet free agents, which everyone seems to be throwing around carelessly (and unrealistically). With those thoughts in mind, I’ve traded entirely out of the 1st round.
#1.39 – DE, Ohio State, JT Tuimoloau
After months of sort of continually mocking Seattle to draft a speed, edge rusher, which this draft is rife with; I’ve recently come around to realizing, I think the idea of DE target should be a bit bigger bodied player. I’m talking 265-275lbs rather than 245-260lbs. Tuimoloau is listed 6’5″/269lbs, and was one of the most-productive DL in the country. He did it on the national champion team, and he got better and better as the Buckeyes got into the playoffs and were facing the best teams in the country.
To recognize that I’m not drafting the best OL still on the board, a couple thoughts: whatever cap space Schneider is able to open up should be spent on a free agent OL, and specifically a center. This OL needs a leader, and I think the no-doubter best leaders in the draft are gone by Seattle’s pick. Secondly, I think the scheme we’re likely walking into can make due with lesser overall talent.
#2.62 – LB, South Carolina, Demetrius Knight
It currently feels like the consensus around town is that Seattle won’t need a linebacker this early because they will bring back Ernest Jones. I’m not so sure. I think this might be kind of the Drew Lock situation from last year, the team sincerely wants to bring the guy back, but the player doesn’t necessarily want to return. Plus, he might be able to get more money going to a team that has actual, you know, cap space.
The draft is not strong at linebacker, so if they want to draft one, they need to do it early-ish. Knight has been a favorite of mine for months now, and he’s done nothing but climb throughout the season and postseason. Up next for him is the combine, which may really open some people’s eyes on him.
#3.72 – QB, Louisville, Tyler Shough
I’ve given up on the idea that Geno Smith will be cut/traded, but by no means does that mean I think Seattle won’t draft one, and that draftee may end up starting sooner than people realize. It may be a variation of the Matt Flynn situation. Seattle NEEDS to get the ball rolling on a successor to Geno. This draft has a number of guys that won’t cost a 1st round pick, but have the potential to fall into the Geno/Russell/Kirk Cousins/Jalen Hurts/Dak Prescott category of QB talent.
As Jaxson Dart has entered the conversation of 1st round QB, maybe even the 2nd QB off the board, I’m already prepared to pivot to Shough, who I think has been very underrated all year. His arm-talent is pretty well-recognized, but I also think his running ability is underrated.
#3.82 – OG, Iowa, Connor Colby
The climb up draft boards has already begun for Colby, and I think it will take another large step after the Combine. A natural right guard, that would be where he slots in for Seattle.
#3.86 – CB, California, Nohl Williams
It took me a long time to sort of self-realize it, but I think CB is a bigger need on this team than I had been thinking during the season. I think Riq Woolen is overrated, and at minimum inconsistent. Jackson Jobe finished the year as a starter, but clearly he can be upgraded. And Devon Witherspoon can’t seem to get out of the slot because the team likes him closer to the snap.
Nohl Williams is rad, and that’s all I have to say about that.
#3.90 – DL, Nebraska, Ty Robinson
Robinson is a long-time holdover from my mocks all year. The cliffs notes: positional versatility (including fullback), smart, tough, productive.
#4.108 – DL, Ole Miss, JJ Pegues
Rinse and repeat. I want the duo of Robinson and Pegues to become staples of the Macdonald defense for a decade. It also would be rad to have Robinson lead-block for Pegues in wildcat.
#4.131 – OT, UConn, Chase Lundt
It’s been tough to gauge where the league is valuing Lundt. I feel like this is too low, but it worked in the mock simulator. Lundt gives us an immediate replacement for free agent Stone Forsythe, and also a legit hedge for Abe Lucas’ knee.
#4.137 – TE, Oregon, Terrance Ferguson
If we’re keeping Metcalf, which we apparently are, I think the bigger draft capital probably goes to the tight end room than wide receiver.
#5.173 – TE, Georgia Tech, Jackson Hawes
It only came to me this week…it’s a pretty good TE draft class…draft two. There are high-end TE that would be interesting in Warren and Arroyo, but there’s also a good number of midround guys. If not Ferguson, or Hawes, I also think Jalin Conyers makes sense for Klint Kubiak who just came from the team where Taysom Hill was the Swiss army knife player.
Ferguson is a nice receiving TE, who can block a little. Hawes is a great blocking TE, who can receive a little. Conyers is a jack of all trades. Get two of them.
#6.187 – OL, Jacksonville State, Clay Webb
I honestly think the move for Seattle won’t be signing Drew Dalman to play center, but they might go after Ryan Kelly on a smaller deal. But behind him, I like the idea of Webb getting a soft-landing without expectation of needing to start immediately, so he can take some time to get back in the habit of playing Center, where he spent most of his time playing in high school.
#6.212 – WR, Washington State, Kyle Williams
I only, very recently, got to looking into Williams, and as I said on twitter, he reminds me of Doug Baldwin. That would be a great type of player to add this late.
#7.236 – WR, Tennessee, Dont’e Thornton
With all of the talk of Tyler Lockett being a cap casualty; I think Seattle needs to do something at WR. Getting two guys with the upside of Williams and Thornton, and who each have unique size and traits; you could, at minimum, replace Lock in the aggregate.
If there’s one thing this mock is egregiously missing…it would be a running back in a strong running back class. It’s always good to draft from the strength(s) of the class, but in this class we have good OL, good DL, good TE, and good RB. We double-dipped, if not triple, on three of the four of those. And there’s a chance you can find one that makes the roster out of rookie free agency.
Total draft:
Seattle Seamocks 
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