By Jared Stanger
Welcome to 2025! As I’m writing this we’re still a few hours away from the Seahawks’ season finale in Los Angeles. It will be a meaningless game for the already-eliminated Hawks in terms of this season, but maybe it gives us some ideas about what they will be doing going forward. The big intel might be how they handle Geno Smith in the game, as he is on pace to hit a number of contract performance bonus escalators if he plays and plays well today.
I’m not a salary cap expert by any stretch, so the way I read the projections for Seattle’s 2025 cap, they’re in bad shape. Like, “bottom five teams in the league” bad. It’s no wonder they had to table negotiations to extend Ernest Jones. They really need to make some cuts first. And there aren’t really clean cuts to make. There’s a lot of dead money they are going to have to just eat. I think the best way to do that is to rip the bandaid off. The three biggest cap hits are Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf. The single biggest cap savings would be cutting (or trading) Geno before June 1…saving $25million. The biggest dead money also comes from probably your best trade chip…DK, with $21mill dead money. And Lockett is probably the most replaceable based on his current role on the roster with JSN now looking like WR1. Lock will dead money you almost $14mill, and save you $17mill.
Personally, I might just do all three. But I kinda doubt Seattle does. I’m going to split the difference, cut Geno, trade DK, and just ride it out with the always classy Lock.
For a DK trade, I look at competitive teams that have good cap space, maybe only have a WR1, and then have a decent amount of draft capital. Buffalo has the draft picks, but don’t really have cap space. Washington has cap, but only mid on draft picks. Minnesota has cap space, but hardly any draft picks. I came away with the Chargers having the best fit.
Chargers have the 8th-most cap space. They have 11 projected draft picks. And their leading WR this year was Ladd McConkey with 1000 yards, followed by Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston with under 600 yards. It’s a pretty young WR room, where DK would actually become the elder-statesman at 27. I’m going to project the trade is DK for the Chargers’ 2nd (#2.57) and one of their four picks in the 6th round at #6.178.
In one note on free agency, before you wonder why I don’t have Seattle drafting a left guard after losing Laken Tomlinson to free agency…I will project Seattle goes out and signs Teven Jenkins as their #1 priority in free agency.
In the first trade within the draft; I have Seattle moving back from #1.18 to #1.29 while adding #2.62 in deal with Buffalo, who also own the #2.61 pick.
We’ll immediately flip #62 to Las Vegas for pick #3.69 + #5.146. And we’ll move Seattle’s native 3rd round pick to Baltimore for their 3rd (3.91) and one of their 4th’s (4.128). This will be a LOT of draftpicks, but Seattle needs to get younger and cheaper while they take the dead cap hits from Geno and DK.
1.18(SEA)->1.29(BUF) + 2.62(BUF)
1.29(BUF) – QB, Ole Miss, Jaxson Dart
I’ve decided the way forward for Seattle isn’t to cut Geno Smith and then immediately target someone like Sam Darnold, who is going to cost almost as much as Geno. Nor do I want to lose draft picks to acquire, say, JJ McCarthy in trade. Seattle has Sam Howell under contract for another year. They also have Jaren Hall on the active roster, and then there’s John Rhys Plumlee who was also recently added to the active roster but now listed as a WR. (This might be some parlor trick bullshit until they resolve the Geno situation. It would just be a bad look to openly show four QB on the active roster in a game that doesn’t matter, but could cost the team millions.)
I think the move here is giving thorough examination of Howell, Hall, Plumlee, AND two more QB that they will get in the draft. To me, Howell, Hall, and Plumlee all have a very similar vibe, and Jaxson Dart has that same vibe. (Maybe I’m on to the right idea, but the wrong player, and it actually ends up Riley Leonard…but I prefer Dart.)
I’m not gonna telegraph the entire thinking here, but suffice to say, focus on the strategy.
2.50(SEA) – Defensive End, Boston College, Donovan Ezeiruaku
Seattle needs a more consistent Edge rush presence. Uchenna Nwosu missed most of the year injured, and now has only played 11-12 games over the last two years, producing only three sacks combined. We can’t count on him. Derick Hall has had a nice sophomore season with 8.0 sacks, but to my eye a lot of those have been coverage and/or cleanup sacks. And Boye Mafe only has one sack over his last five games, after opening the year with four sacks in the first five games.
This draft looks incredibly strong in the Edge rush class. It is the best philosophy to pick from the strength(s) of a draft. Seattle should do this just based on that, alone.
Ezeiruaku is a more long, slender, speed edge rusher than the guys we have presently have at 6’2″/247lbs. He bends the corner better than almost anyone in the class. He had 20.5 TFL, 16.5 sacks, and 15 QB hurries this year.
2.57(LAC trade DK) – Offensive Guard, Georgia, Tate Ratledge
As I said before, Seattle should target Teven Jenkins in free agency to address one of the guard spots. The second guard (right) they should get early in the draft. There are some college tackles that project to move inside that I’d be happy to get, but in this case I’m taking one of the true guards.
Ratledge is listed 6’6″/320lbs and is just one of the most well-rounded OL in the draft. Intangibles, too.
2.62(BUF)->3.69(LVR) + 5.146(LVR)
3.69(LVR) – Linebacker, Ole Miss, Chris Paul Jr
Maybe Seattle gets Ernest Jones re-signed, maybe they don’t. But Seattle needs more talent in the linebacker room. It clearly made a difference in the performance of the Seahawk defense from Baker and Dodson to Jones and Knight. If you end up redshirting Paul for a year or two…fine.
Listed 6’1″/235lbs, Paul posted 88 tackles, 11.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 9 hurries, 1 INT, and 4 PBU this year as the MIKE in the #14 defense in the country (#3 in scoring defense). He checks a lot of boxes that I’m looking for.
3.82(SEA)->3.91(BAL) + 4.128(BAL)
3.91(BAL) – Defensive Tackle, Nebraska, Ty Robinson
Seattle has impending free agents at DT in Jarran Reed, Johnathan Hankins, and Brandon Pili. Cameron Young has been non-existent since he was drafted in 2023. We need reinforcements on the interior DL. I’m a fan of using vets at DT, as the younger guys seem ineffective until they’ve had 3-4 years in the pro’s, but Seattle may not have the cap space to do that.
Robinson is listed 6’6″/310lbs, and he’s played everywhere along the Huskers’ line (not to mention some fullback). This year he posted 12.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 7 hurries, 4 PBU, 1 FF, and 1 blocked kick. It may not be a sexy pick, but this guy makes your roster better.
4.128(BAL) – Quarterback, Louisville, Tyler Shough
I mentioned last week on twitter that I kind of like Seattle doing what Washington did in 2012 when they drafted RG3 in the 1st round and then Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of that draft. I don’t really think the quality of this quarterback class will be in the 1st round. I think there’s a number of quality leaders of men that play QB, but have not caught the eye of the media, and probably not the league. But history will look kindly on a couple guys drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds.
Shough has a complicated story, having started at Oregon, played a couple injury-plagued years at Texas Tech, before finally getting a full healthy year in 2024 at Louisville. He now has ties to the schools that recently gave us Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. He’s got the ideal QB build at 6’5″/225lbs. He’s an older player at 25, which is why he will fall in the draft, but I like his longterm prospects.
4.136(SEA comp) – Tight End, Miami, Elijah Arroyo
I think this is a lowkey nice TE class. I’d like to see the Hawks invest a decent pick at the spot. A) they need a quid pro quo replacement for free agent Pharoah Brown. B) I kinda think the right TE player could end up being a pseudo replacement for DK Metcalf.
Arroyo is listed 6’4″/245lbs and posted 35 catches for 590 yards and 7 TD this year.
5.146(LVR) – Defensive Tackle, Ole Miss, JJ Pegues
Listen, at this point, I’m just ride-or-die with some of these guys. The only thing that changes is how early I need to draft them. Pegues is one of my favorite players in the entire draft. I want him on my team. He’s listed at 6’2″/325lbs and still has a pretty legit outside edge rush. And he can get you short yardage carries as a ball carrier. He makes your roster better and deeper.
JJ finished the year with 13.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 hurries, and a total 7 rushing TD.
5.173(SEA comp) – Wide Receiver, Tennessee, Dont’e Thornton
This is another, more literal, attempt to find a replacement for Metcalf. There’s a sneaky group of BIG receivers that will be available in this draft, and most aren’t getting crazy buzz. Maybe that changes for the ones that flash at the combine, but for now I’m seeing Thornton available this late.
He’s listed 6’5″/214lbs. I believe the rep is that he will test well. And in 2024 he only had 26 catches, but he averaged 25.42 ypc on those catches, with 6 going for TD.
6.178(LAC trade DK) – Center, Florida, Jake Slaughter
One of my biggest complaints of John Schneider’s last decade running the show in Seattle has been the way he has mismanaged the center position. He traded away Max Unger and the offensive line, and the team’s success, has never been the same. And he’s screwed up time after time in the draft with his decisions (and indecisions) regarding centers.
Ironically, this year comes around and I don’t think the draft warrants an early pick at the center position. As I scan national big boards, the top ranked center isn’t coming off the board until the 5th round. Yeah, it’s potentially that empty.
So we don’t want to spend a high pick on a center, but we do need to take a shot on a potential upgrade to 2023 5th-rounder Olu Oluwatimi.
I like Slaughter. He’s listed 6’5″/308lbs. He’s a very smart player.
6.184(CHI) – Offensive Tackle, Kansas, Logan Brown
This pick is two things…1) it’s a de facto replacement for Stone Forsythe, who will be a free agent coming off IR, 2) it’s a lotto ticket to finding a decent hedge for Abe Lucas’ future at RT.
Brown is listed 6’6″/315lbs and I just like the temperment he brings.
6.210(SEA comp) – Wide Receiver, Auburn, Keandre Lambert Smith
It’s possible I’ve got way too many picks in this mock draft. There’s a reason I think it might be good to draft a high number, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s plausible. Trading draft picks isn’t as easy in reality as it is in mock draft simulators, etc. So if I were to cut down on picks, this would be the one that I’d lose first.
But I like the story of Lambert Smith. You may remember in 2015, the Seahawks had a safety named Keenan Lambert they got as an UDFA. That was Kam Chancellor’s half-brother. Well, with a first name that starts with ‘K’ and the last name Lambert, you might put together that Keandre is actually Kam’s nephew.
KLS played this year for Auburn after spending four years at Penn State. After swapping Lions for Tigers, Lambert led Auburn in receiving with 50 catches for 981 yards and 8 TD. Listed at 6’1″/182lbs, but I think he plays bigger than that. He’s very strong winning contested balls in the air. If you can get Jermaine Kearse production out of him (about 40 catches, 550 yards, an explosive play per game); that’s a great value.
7.234(SEA) – Safety, Nebraska, Deshon Singleton
There are a couple safeties in this draft that I wouldn’t mind seeing Seattle draft early, and giving Mike Macdonald his new Kyle Hamilton type. Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts is an absolute ball-hawk that is second in the country in INT this year, after tying for the national lead in the same category last year. And South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori is a huge safety at 6’3″/227lbs that should end up one of the top performers at all positions at the Combine. Either of those guys is worthy of a top 60 pick.
Singleton is probably not as complete of a player as the two aforementioned. He basically seems to have the kind of hands that show why he’s playing defense, not offense, and his career mark of 1 total INT all but confirms it. But the guy is one of my favorite tackling safeties I’ve seen. This could be the kind of guy whose ceiling is on special teams, but it might be the special teams player that goes to the Pro Bowl every year. Listed 6’3″/210lbs with 71 tackles on the year from safety.
Seattle Seamocks 