By Jared Stanger
The MLB Draft, to me, is easily the most complex of all the major sport drafts. MLB has the option of both college and high school athletes, which only the NHL also allows. MLB has more draft rounds (20) than the other three sports combined (NBA-2, NFL-7, NHL-7). The NFL has slotted draft bonuses that actually mean something, where the MLB has slotted draft bonuses which actually don’t matter, and instead only contribute to their bonus pool for the first 10 rounds. In the NFL, players must declare for the draft by a pre-determined deadline, and either keep or lose their college eligibility depending on their declaration. In the NBA players can declare and then undeclare up to 10 days before the draft. In MLB, the players never have to declare, and they can decide to go to/remain in college even after they’ve been drafted.
As a result of all of these unique variables to the MLB Draft, it is almost impossible to predict draft order with any accuracy outside of the first round. (Really, it’s the top 15 picks.) Many of the top high school players in a draft class (per the media) aren’t ACTUALLY members of the draft class because they’ve informed MLB teams the requirements for them to sign away from their respective college commitments are too high for teams to actually consider drafting them. So they’ve become hollow place-holders on draft big-boards that the public are oblivious to. This totally screws up mock drafting models as dozens of the top players should be scratched.
Then there are the underslot, overslot, total slot bonus room games that each MLB team comes up with their own strategy to navigate, which make a true best player available mock draft non-existent.
After a number of years of studying MLB drafts, I have a pretty decent sample size to self-scout myself. Even when I have had some success predicting a player that Seattle drafts; I’m generally multiple rounds off of the exact draft position (eg: I mocked Seattle drafting relief pitcher Hunter Cranton at pick #7.213…the M’s actually drafted him at pick #3.91 for a massively underslot deal). This is why, over the last couple drafts, I’ve tried to create an immediate, reactionary re-draft for the Mariners. I like to have a document that legitimately factors the players that were both available to Seattle at their draft position each round, and also works from a signing bonus perspective where their overall draft fits under the Mariners’ actual bonus allowance.
I try not to include players that didn’t sign (the deadline for all draft signings this year was last Thursday, Aug 1st). This year, I knowingly broke this rule one time for reasons I will explain when we get there.
I do allow myself to “draft” guys that fell to undrafted status, but they must have signed in UDFA with a team. I can’t draft a guy that went undrafted and is still on the streets as of press time. The bonus(es) for UDFA guys that I’m mock drafting aren’t really considered, as it’s almost certain those guys aren’t getting much in terms of bonus, and therefore shouldn’t cross the $150,000 threshold allowed for all players picked after round 10.
The biggest problem with the rules for this exercise is that the “senior-sign”, underslot players drafted well before their actual value, are not eligible at later rounds that more closely match the value of their actual bonus. So, using the same previous example, I can only draft Hunter Cranton at one of Seattle’s first three round picks.
Here we go…
#1.15 – LHP, Saguaro HS, Cam Caminiti
I think the greatest mistake of Seattle’s 2024 draft is that they took Jurrangelo Cijntje at #15 AND gave him a full-slot ($4.88mill) signing bonus. I think their overall draft would have been stronger if they took college RHP Trey Yesavage ($4.18mill) or prep pitcher Caminiti ($3.56mill) to start with.
Caminiti was projected as a top 12 pick in this class, but fell to pick #24. In theory, I would have gladly given Caminiti the full slot deal at #15, but we’ll get him at the #24 pick price. Overall, Caminiti cost more than Sloan, but I prefer Cam’s present stuff, future upside, and lefthandedness. And I can definitely create bonus room over the aggregate with somewhat selective drafting in the 2nd.
If Seattle had gotten Cijntje at the same price as Yesavage, I think I would have come to better terms with it. But the combination of Jurrangelo full-slot, and over-slot on Sloan, just crippled Seattle for many rounds. I don’t care that Seattle’s farm is in a good place; you’re still punting on basically an entire draft class (if 1 and 2 don’t work), instead of continuing to stack more quality assets in a world where ownership won’t pay for free agents, and we HAVE to draft and trade for MLB players. It was a VERY short-sighted draft.
Bonus: $3,556,300
#2.55 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman
I’m going on record that I think Holman will be a better pro pitcher than Cijntje. It happens all the time, even when Seattle drafts well, like when they drafted George Kirby in the 1st in 2019, they passed on Gunnar Henderson, or 2020 they picked Emerson Hancock while passing on Garrett Crochet, Jordan Westburg, Patrick Bailey, etc. Good picks can frequently still have been greater picks. And Holman cost almost 80% less than Cijntje, so the 2nd round pick could also have been 2nd plus 3rd (or more).
Bonus: $997,500
#3.91 – 3B, Norris HS, Kale Fountain
Seattle has now signed their first two picks in this draft ($4,553,800) for less than what it cost them to sign just Jurrangelo. So we have a surplus of almost $2mill under slot (or $3.327mill savings over Cijntje plus Sloan) to spread around the rest of the draft. Basically anyone drafted in the 3rd round down is in play. Unfortunately, most of my favored high school guys that would have needed overslot, weren’t even drafted or didn’t sign. Ineligible for this. The overslot options are limited.
Fountain is one guy that did sign. He was projected by MLB as their #121 overall player. He was picked at #151 by the Padres, and signed for about $1.3mill over slot at $1.7mill. This isn’t really a profile that Seattle has drafted out of high school in this regime. They’ve done a lot of “hit-first” prep shortstops and some run-tool outfielders. Fountain looks more power-first, prep corner infielder.
Bonus: $1,700,000
#4.121 – C, Nebraska, Josh Caron
My biggest problem with my own mock draft in real time three weeks ago was the lack of a catcher early in the draft. I wanted to get some guys in the system with the thought that Harry Ford might have been dealt at the deadline. Seattle kind of agreed, drafting Caron in the 4th and giving him, basically, the full slot amount. The price suggests Seattle believes in Caron. I hadn’t studied him before the draft, but let’s defer to the M’s pick, while also knowing MY pre-draft 4th round pick is still gonna be on the board. We can get both.
Bonus: $594,000
#5.154 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins
Collins is an extremely disciplined, lefthanded hitting college 1B, with experience at catcher. Per my research, Collins is a better version of Grant Knipp at the plate. MLB projected Corey at #170, he was picked at #6.173, and he signed for $272k. I’m plenty happy to take him in the 5th for the same price.
Bonus: $272,500
#6.183 – RHP, Oregon State, Bridger Holmes
Seattle clearly went into this draft targeting fast-to-the-show college relievers. I had used the same idea in my mock drafts, so it seems logical to do a more focused version of that in this exercise. The M’s actually drafted the two highest-ranked relievers I found in my pre-draft pitching analysis. Holmes was the 4th-highest. He, essentially, replaces #2 Charlie Beilenson who was over-drafted in the 3rd round to an underslot deal. Holmes is only a slight downgrade in analytics, a slightly larger bonus, but at a three-round discount. Plus, he was born in Anacortes and has those Jeff Nelson mechanics that Mariner old-heads will appreciate.
Bonus: $215,000
#7.213 – LHP, Rutgers, Donovan Zsak
I am baffled by Seattle’s multi-year draft plan (or lack thereof) in regards to finding lefthanded pitching. It is a huge blindspot for them, and it makes no sense in a park like TMobile where you should WANT to push teams to hit righthanded heavy. Zsak is a lefty that was touching 99mph towards the end of the college season, and looked even better in two games in the Cape Cod League just after the season. He basically replaces Brock Moore, but from the southpaw side.
Bonus: $200,000
#8.243 – LHP, Oklahoma St, Sam Garcia
Again, still looking to add more LHP quality. Garcia wasn’t a big-velo guy, but he got a good amount of punchouts, and ate a ton of innings. Plus, he only cost $55,000 to sign. Garcia replaces Will Riley.
Bonus: $55,000
#9.273 – RHP, Polk State, Aiden Butler
We’re still running a bonus surplus, but I don’t really see anyone here that I both like as a prospect, got drafted/signed, and needed overslot money. I’m just keeping Seattle’s pick, Butler, who signed for about $60k overslot.
Bonus: $250,000
#10.303 – MIF, Austin Peay, Jon Jon Gazdar
I had Gazdar to Seattle in the 8th round in my final pre-draft mock, and he was actually drafted in the 11th round, but was given a bonus of $250,000 by St Louis. In rounds 11-20, any bonus amount over $150,000 counts towards the pool for rounds 1-10. So the Cardinals essentially valued Gazdar in the 7th round.
Bonus: $250,000
#11.333 – RHP, LSU, Christian Little
In all honesty, I didn’t really see the pick of Little coming, but it might be the best pick of the class for Seattle. Christian was a highly-touted prospect coming out of highschool as one of the youngest players eligible for the 2020 draft. He wasn’t drafted then, with the league conceding to his open desire to play for Vanderbilt, which he did do while he was still only 17 years old.
In college, Little never really found consistency, with season lines generally pushing an ERA over 5.75 and a WHIP over 1.510. But this is, lowkey, the kind of makeup that Seattle has polished up in guys like Bryce Miller and Logan Evans. Could be the steal of the draft with a slight over-slot signing of only $200k.
Bonus: $200,000
#12.363 – RHP, Miami, Brian Walters
Seattle drafted Walters in the 19th round and it was always gonna be a longshot for them to sign him due to how much college eligibility he had left, and going overslot on Sloan. In this exercise Seattle has all kinds of money left to spend, so I am breaking my own rule by keeping a player that didn’t sign, not knowing how much it would take to get it done, but I’ll give him everything we have left, plus the $150k all day three picks are allowed. This gets Walters up to the equivalent of 2nd round money. I feel safe thinking that gets a deal done.
Bonus: $1,500,000
#13.393 – 3B, VCU, Brandon Eike
Eike becomes the fifth member of Seattle’s actual draft class to carryover to the re-draft. There was some comparison made after the draft between Eike and Tyler Locklear because they both went to the same college, but really I think the comp for Eike might be more like Ben Williamson in the power department.
Bonus: $150,000
#14.423 – SS, Murray State, Drew Vogel
Vogel, to me, is a better version of Austin St Laurent. I like the power/speed combination of a guy that hit 20 HR and stole 16 SB this year.
Bonus: $130,000
#15.453 – OF, Austin Peay, Lyle Miller-Green
Miller-Green is another holdover from my mock drafts. He was a top 12 bat in this class per my research, just behind Grant Knipp, and symbolically he upgrades Anthony Donofrio but a few rounds later.
Bonus: $25,000
#16.483 – RHP, East Carolina, Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman
WLS came in 6th in my pitcher rankings when isolated for relievers, so he remains in place after Seattle actually drafted him at this exact spot.
Bonus: $150,000
#17.513 – RHP, Cumberlands, Cesar Avila
At this point, I’ve run out of players that were drafted, so I’m pivoting to stealing players prior to undrafted free agency. Avila is a 6’3″/190lb starter that posted 124 strikeouts in 88.1 IP in the NAIA level school. We don’t know any of the next four signing bonuses, but we can give them each $150,000 without penalty.
Bonus: $150,000*
#18.543 – LHP, Arkansas, Stone Hewlett
Hewlett had the best pitching metric in my study for all lefthanded relievers, and he was 3rd amongst all relievers. He struck out a whopping 15.9 batters per 9 innings. The group of Walters, Hewlett, Holmes, Lunsford gives Seattle four of the top six relievers in this draft per my metric, plus a couple high-upside, high-velo guys in Zsak and Little.
Bonus: $150,000*
#19.573 – RHP, FIU, Danny Trehey
Trehey is a guy I found while poring over the list of UDFA signings, and then cross-referencing to my pitch metric. He came in #11 on my list of relievers, which is still very decent for this part of the draft. He posted a 1.83 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, and 13.4 SO/9 in 26 relief appearances.
Bonus: $150,000*
#20.603 – 3B, NC State, Alec Makarewicz
For most of this draft, I’ve more or less tried to match like for like to what Seattle actually drafted. Pitcher for pitcher, hitter for hitter, position for position. To close that out, I should be taking an outfielder here, but I just like this player better. I felt Makarewicz was draftable as a switch-hitting corner infielder with power, and he went undrafted. I’d be psyched to steal him before the end of the draft.
Bonus: $150,000*
Seattle Seamocks 