By Jared Stanger
Goodbye NFL Draft…hello MLB Draft.
For whatever reason, I’ve been getting so much more into the MLB Draft than the NFL Draft the last, say, three draft cycles. The Mariners under the current front office; have had three pretty distinct phases of their drafting. When they first got here they went after college bats in Kyle Lewis and then Evan White, followed by a stretch where they went super aggressively towards college pitching with the likes of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock all in the 1st round. We’re seeing a lot of the fruits of that stretch of drafting on the MLB club right now.
The third significant phase of drafting for Seattle has become the high school position players. This run goes: Harry Ford, Cole Young, Colt Emerson as first picks, and add in the compensatory first rounders: Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete.
I don’t know why they seem to make these runs, but they have shown to last three years. Personally, I like the idea of flipping back to a run on college pitching for the next three years to back-fill behind what is currently in MLB. Certainly, in the 2024 draft class there appears to be a VERY strong class of both pitching and hitting coming out of college. If you make an analogy to the NFL draft where we just saw 15 picks dedicated to offense before the first defensive player was chosen; we may see 15 college players before any from the high school ranks this year. Maaaaybe that creates value if Seattle were to continue drafting high school bats, but for now I’m gonna look to go college pitching.
Just as a quick aside…Seattle should never draft from high school pitching. What are we on 7-8 draft cycles with this front office? And how many drafted high school pitchers have they developed up to MLB? I think the answer is zero. I don’t know what or why that is, but let’s assume it is a thing, and adjust accordingly.
I was annoyed at the time of the deal, and I’m reminded again now that Seattle included the compensatory pick #68 in the trade with the White Sox for the yet-to-pitch-for-Seattle Gregory Santos. This leaves the Seattle draft board as: #1.15, #2.55, #3.91, #4.121, #5.154, #6.183, #7.213, #8.243, #9.273, #10.303, and every 30th pick thereafter for twenty rounds. I will only be mocking a percentage of those picks today.
#1.15 – RHP, LSU, Luke Holman
There are three pitchers projecting to be picked in the top12 overall, and per an analytic I came up with a few years ago; all three of them deserve to be there (Hagen Smith, Chase Burns, Trey Yesavage). After that there’s a bit of a gap to the next tier of college guys: Brody Brecht, Jonathan Santucci, Bryce Cunningham. That trio is being over-valued. On my board Ryan Prager, Ryan Forcucci, and Holman score higher than the prior-mentioned trio, but are being projected closer to Seattle’s second round pick range.
I would really like to see the M’s get a truly good lefthanded starter (or two) out of this draft because that would force visiting teams into more of a righthanded lineup, which would play down in the marine-layer of the early season in T-mobile Park, which makes Prager intriguing. I’m not doing that in this mock because when I add a filter of subjectivity to the objectivity of my pitching metric; I like Holman better. And there might be a chance at a lefty comparable to Prager later.
Holman is a 6’4″/201lb righthanded starter posting a 2.63 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 12.8 SO/9, 4.19 SO/BB in the notoriously difficult SEC. I see other pitchers with higher velo numbers, but I just like Holman’s pitchability and repertoire better. Batters do not pick up on his stuff at all. And I think MLB pitching programs can add velo in the minors.
#2.55 – 2B, Alabama, Gage Miller
The college position players in this draft are absolutely insane. When I analyzed the top 150 players in the draft; the top 6 hitters from MLB’s rankings also scored in the top 9 bats in my hitting metric. Those guys absolutely deserve to be where they are ranked. If any of Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, Jac Caglianone, Nick Kurtz, Braden Montgomery, JJ Wetherholt should fall to #15…you sprint to the podium. (FYI: The top bat outside the top 15 that scored worthy of the #15 pick was FSU outfielder James Tibbs.)
I’ve done this hitting metric at least since 2022, and in that draft class Tyler Locklear was one of the highest scorers period, and certainly the highest still available when Seattle picked him at #58. Gage Miller has a similar profile this year. Miller is a 6’0″/200lb college 3b, with some questions on his future defensive position. But the bat is the carrying tool. He’s hitting .386/.483/1.267 for Alabama with 18 HR and 47 RBI in 43 games. These numbers make Miller the 10th-best college bat in my database, but the 2nd-best still on the board. It’s a great value.
#3.91 – RHP, Presbyterian, Daniel Eagen
As I sort of look at the broad strokes of players available at each draft pick; I begin to lean into specific position groups at each pick, so that if you don’t get THIS pitcher, you get a similar value pitcher at the same pick. For this mock, I’m really liking the idea of going Pitcher, Hitter, Pitcher, Pitcher, Hitter. That’s just the way the waves kinda look to me.
Eagen is one of the tougher guys to pull the trigger on this mock because there is so little available footage of him that is also current to this year, and not from when he was in high school. But, at the same time, that can also be a way you find value, turning to small school players.
Eagen is a 6’4″/200lb righty that has posted 2024 numbers of 2.98 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 15.3 SO/9, 4.14 SO/BB over 10 starts.
#4.122 – RHP, Mississippi State, Nate Dohm
This pick reminds me a little of the pick of Teddy McGraw last year in that there’s some degree of concern with the health. Dohm is a 6’4″/210lb starter with only five starts in 2024. He made starts in four consecutive weeks from February to early March, then missed a month with reports it was actually a lower-body injury, came back to make a start on April 7th that lasted only 12 pitches, and has been M.I.A. since then. It’s almost impossible to find truly honest reports of injuries in college baseball, so I have very little insight as to what is going on there.
Before the injury; Dohm was touching 98-99mph in relief role last year. Numbers this year: 1.48 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9, 8.00 SO/BB across 24.1 innings.
#5.154 – C, Davidson, Jacob Friend
Every year there needs to be a few things standard in a draft class: you need a shortstop and he’s probably coming out of high school, and you need a catcher or two. In terms of the catchers, I’ll always include my standard hitting breakdown, but then I like to add in the element of their ability to catch basestealers.
Friend’s bat goes: .285/.483/1.068 with 10 homeruns, 27 RBI in 38 games, with a nice little 6×9 in stolen bases. The caught-stealing is not exceptional, but most of the better rates are guys getting picked top 2 rounds. Nice little bonus that Friend is a lefty-hitting backstop.
#6.183 – SS/RHP, Cedar Park Christian HS, Adam Haight
I went through this entire mock draft without this pick, but I got to the end and I didn’t have a shortstop of any kind. There are basically zero interesting shortstops coming out of college this year. And Seattle has not drafted ANY high school players past the 9th round since the draft was reshaped during, and after, the Covid year to 5 rounds and then 20 rounds where it remains today. I don’t know the exact mechanics of that…they used to draft high school players in rounds 21-40 back when they existed, but now I guess they need to be a bit more efficient and the fat they cut was late round high school players who NEVER develop into anything.
Part of the philosophy of this draft, for me, was to get back to some solid college pitching prospects, so I didn’t want to drop a pitcher to add a shortstop. The second round makes some sense to swap a college bat for a prep bat (a la Edwin Arroyo in 2021), but I just like where Seattle has been at drafting college bats in the 2nd round last year in Ben Williamson (hitting .330/.407/.892 in Everett), and in 2022 with Tyler Locklear (hitting .319/.451/.990 in Arkansas. Arroyo, for the record, traded to Cincinnati in the Castillo deal has not played this year while being on 60-day IL, and was last seen playing 4 games at AA level last year.
So I kinda chose the draft range that I wanted to swap out for a shortstop, and then looked for the player that fit the round.
Literally the first player I looked at was Adam Haight based only on a big board of draft prospects. Then I looked up the player on twitter and found the below video of him hitting a homerun in TMobile Park just a couple weeks ago, then I found out his high school is actually up in Snohomish here in WA. It just kind of made sense, as a guy that might not require a huge signing bonus to play for his local team.
#7.213 – DH, Campbell, Grant Knipp
Knipp is another pick, like Gage Miller, where there are questions about future defensive position. I generally prefer to ignore that question in favor of a bat that might actually progress to a relevant MLB hitter. Knipp is a 6’2″/220lb sometime catcher that probably just needs to be a DH where his .402/.547/1.576 slash with 18 homeruns and 46 RBI in 29 games. The power is the carrying feature, but he’s got a decent eye as well.
This pick also represents a bit of a senior signing with the option to go underslot for Knipp who will be turning 23 year sold this year.
#8.243 – LHP, Oklahoma State, Sam Garcia
Garcia is a 6’4″/218lb lefthanded starter with senior classification. He’s posting season numbers of 3.98 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 12.1 SO/9. I, personally, would like to see Seattle make some stronger efforts to create better right/left balance in the rotation (and to lesser degree the ‘pen) going forward. I think this matters for the park factors at TMobile. It is to the team’s detriment that they aren’t able to force visiting clubs into more of a righthanded heavy lineup at any point in a homestand. This needs to change.
Garcia is one of the top three lefthanded starters in my pitching metric this draft, and top 10 arms overall. He ranks below only first rounder Hagen Smith (and one other guy in the top two rounds), and he ranks ahead of first rounder Jonathan Santucci, second rounders Carter Holton and Gage Jump. I love the value play here.
#9.273 – 1B, Georgia, Corey Collins
This pick is another sticking strictly to my hitting metric. Miller, Knipp, and Collins all kind of fall into the same basket of guys that I’m overlooking defensive position in favor of the bat. But after Seattle has spent the last few drafts taking younger, more athletic up the middle players in Harry Ford, (Arroyo), Cole Young, Colt Emerson, Tai Peete, Jonny Farmelo, Aidan Smith, so I’m thinking we have put ourselves in the position to try to find some corner IF/DH thumpers in this draft.
Collins is a 6’3″/236lb lefty-hitting C/1B/DH hitting .352/.591/1.369 with 14 HR, 43 RBI in 39 games this year. Another senior sign guy.
It is worth pointing out that last year, Seattle changed their draft bonus strategy slightly. In most years, Seattle would draft someone (or multiple guys) in their first 10 round picks that they sign for like $5,000-$20,000 in bonus money. This would save them anywhere from $145k-$470k in bonus pool allotment (depending on the round), which they would then redirect to some of their high school players.
In 2023, the low bonus amount they gave to any of their top 10 round picks was $75,000. I just like this as a human decency decision. The yearly pay for minor league baseball players is shockingly bad, and many of them have to make their post-draft signing bonus last for years. So it’s criminal to only give a guy $5,000. But there’s also the plausibility that giving 2-4 guys a decent, but still underslot, signing bonus (instead of one highway robbery) can give you 2-4 better shots at better players, while still giving you the bonus pool flexibility you need.
#10.303 – RHP, William and Mary, Nate Knowles
Another recent development in the post-covid Mariners draft ecosystem is that they will absolutely pile on pitching picks in rounds 10-14. In the last three drafts, Seattle has picked pitchers in 11 of 15 of those slots. And they will make those picks from any size of baseball program. Schools like: Illinois State, Campbell, UC Irvine, UNC Pembroke, Central Arkansas, Chipola Junior College.
Knowles is a 6’0″/205lb righty starter that has a 1.91 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 12.5 SO/9 across 16 starts and 61 innings in 2024. He’s actually one of the younger players in this mock as a draft-eligible 20 year old college junior.
#11.333 – LHP, Florida State, Carson Dorsey
Dorsey is a 6’1″/180lb lefty that I think I had in mock drafts last year as a JUCO player. He’s now moved up to a power 5 program where he’s been mixed in as sometime starter, and mostly long-relief (5 starts in 16 appearances), where he’s holding a 3.66 ERA, 1.393 WHIP, 11.4 SO/9.
#12.363 – LHP, Charlotte, AJ Wilson
As I mentioned earlier, I’m really trying to make a conscious effort to splash in lefty pitchers. Wilson is a reliever only at Charlotte where he’s posting a 3.98 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 13.5 SO/9 in 22 appearances.
#13.393 – RHP, Binghamton, Gabe Driscoll
Driscoll is 6’5″/225lbs and pitching a 2024 line of 3.42 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9 and only 1.6 BB/9.
#14.423 – OF, Penn State, Adam Cecere
This might be unlikely as Cecere is having a great year in his first year at Penn State, hitting .338/.495/1.193 with 13 homeruns and 41 RBI in 41 games. His big negative is that he’s already 23 years old as of January.
#15.453 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece
Preece is another guy that I clocked last year, who either didn’t get drafted or didn’t sign, and this year he’s playing even better. He’s at .381/.514/1.236 with 18 HR, 54 RBI, 19×23 SB in 48 games.
Seattle Seamocks 