By Jared Stanger
We are mere days away from the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, so this will probably be my final Seahawks seven round mock of the year. Barring something crazy (like a trade) coming out before the draft.
A few things have changed recently. The first came about after listening to John Schneider’s most-recent radio appearance on 710. John mentioned how, in an average draft year, there are usually 15-20 true first round grades. Which puts a 16th overall pick squarely in range of getting a true first round player by sticking and picking. And that may be what Seattle does. They certainly have brought in a few guys that project to be picked around 16 as official 30 visits. But something else occurred to me…this expected early run on QB’s, some of whom may not rank as 1st round grades for Seattle, will push some of the 1st round grades down a couple spots. Which, then, means you get a 1st round player down into the 17-22 pick range (if not deeper).
With this in mind; we still trade back the #16. But we trade it at a shallower range. Our first move is trading #16 to the Rams for their picks at #1.19 + #3.99 + #6.196. The Rams open the draft with 11 total picks, including two in the 3rd and four in the 6th, so they use their later 3rd and earliest 6th to move up three spots to draft DT Byron Murphy as heir-apparent to Aaron Donald. And the Seahawks get to reinforce their draft capital while still drafting a first round graded player.
The next move is a holdover from my previous mock. Trading DK Metcalf to the Chiefs for their first and third round picks (#1.32 + #3.95) and a third rounder in 2025. When I previously posed this trade I had comments that this was not enough for DK, and I had comments that this was too much. Which probably means it’s about the right return value. In 2022, Philadelphia acquired DK’s former teammate AJ Brown for the #1.18 + #3.101 picks. This is pretty similar return for a guy two years older than when that trade happened. Shortly after trading DK away, I think Seattle goes out and signs Chase Claypool to pair with the freshly-signed Laviska Shenault and the second year Jake Bobo to give Seattle some WR size to go with the tacticians Lock and JSN.
Trade #3 is to immediately flip the #32 pick to Washington for their picks at #2.40 + #3.100. Seahawks third round would then look like: #81, KC’s #95, LAR’s #99, WSH #100 plus #102 in the early 4th.
Trade #4 is to move UP by sending Baltimore pick #95, #100, #118 for their pick at #2.62. This trade is reminiscent of Seattle moving up in 2015 to secure Tyler Lockett at pick #69. That move cost Seattle #95, #112, #167, #181.
And, finally, trade #5 has Seattle moving down pick #102 to land pick #123 and #127 from Houston.
Final 2024 draft board:
#1.19 (18 picks before)
#2.40 (21 picks between)
#2.62 (22 picks between)
#3.81 (19 picks between)
#3.99 (18 picks between)
#4.123 (24 picks between)
#5.127
#6.179
#6.192
#6.196
#7.235
I wasn’t specifically seeking to create the spacing this made, but after seeing it all together; I loved it. A board like this would really open up the possibilities to go BPA throughout the draft. Let’s pick ’em.
#1.19 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton
There seems to be some recent groundswell for Seattle to stick and #16 and make their pick. I’m not sure they’re looking at the big picture. If you take a look at the compiled consensus mock draft sites; the top 16 holds four QB (Williams, Maye, Daniels, Mccarthy), three WR (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), three OT (Alt, Fuaga, Fashanu), three DE (Turner, Verse, Latu), two CB (Arnold, Mitchell), and one TE (Bowers). It doesn’t include the fifth QB (likely Penix), who is a very real possibility to go top 12. I really don’t see much of that list that is fat to be cut. Maybe a Laiatu Latu drops due to medicals. And maybe you split hairs and flip an OT or two, and see Fautanu go before Fuaga, eg.
This still presents a next three best available as DT Byron Murphy, WR Brian Thomas, OT Troy Fautanu/Taliese Fuaga. So, in theory, even at #20 I think Seattle is getting a first round grade player.
Murphy I am wholesale not interested in. I think there are some demons there that the media is not seeing. Plus, I don’t think the gap from Murphy to Jer’zhan Newton is that big. If Mike and John are really interested in a DT early; I’d rather take Newton plus the picks. Newton feels like Kenny Clark who came off at #27 in 2016 draft, but has played to the 16th-best career value of all players that draft.
This first round pick, to me, needs to be focused on finding a clean prospect. Clean film. Clean testing. Clean medicals. Clean character. To that end, I would really like to see it end up being amongst a group of Jared Verse, Troy Fautanu, and Graham Barton.
Fautanu (and to lesser extent Fuaga) would be really tough to pass on here. And, quite frankly, might be Seattle’s preference. Fautanu is SUCH a clean prospect in my mind. A very smart player, with zero character questions, Fautanu proved at the Combine he has OT length at 34 1/2″ arms and OT athleticism with his 5.01s forty at 317lbs.
To me, I just think the interior OL (especially Cnter) is the bigger need, but guard would not be something Seattle drafted in the 1st, only Center. I’m not sold that Olu Oluwatimi is a starter (team hasn’t seemed to think so, either), and I feel zero security in Nick Harris on a one-year deal. The team has, at least, shown enough confidence in Cross and Lucas to start them immediately since they joined the team. So, if we’re looking at drafting a Tackle, it’s most likely a commentary on Lucas’ longterm health prognosis.
But that’s also why Barton is such an interesting prospect. Barton has at least 34 starts at left tackle for Duke. He could, in theory, train up to move over to right tackle should Lucas’ health be a problem. Barton also made 5 starts at center for Duke in 2020 as a true freshman. He’s a very smart player with all kinds of all-academic accolades. He’s got great athleticism posting a 4.97s forty time at 6’5″/313lbs once he was able to test after coming back from injury. To me, this is an ideal Center candidate.
#2.40 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins
I’ve had Jenkins in previous mocks, and I’m coming back to him to close the year. His size and athleticism are very comparable to Byron Murphy…Murphy at 6’1″/297lbs, 32 3/8″ arms, 4.87s forty…Jenkins 6’3″/299lbs, 34″ arms, 4.91s forty. Texas had the NCAA’s #5 rush defense, Michigan had the NCAA’s #7 rush defense. Jenkins had both a pass-rush win rate and run-stop rate over 10%, which only two guys this draft had. Jenkins has got that NFL legacy bloodline, AND he will be familiar with the Mike Macdonald scheme. I love the fit…I hope we can get him.
#2.62 – DE, Utah, Jonah Elliss
I mentioned earlier that this mock represented a few changes in my approach. This one is that I’m changing my position on Seattle looking at DE. I had previously thought Seattle was in pretty good position with their DE room, and wouldn’t be looking to draft one. I now think that was wrong. There is interest, and we should be looking for the right fit.
Elliss is another NFL legacy player as the son of Luther Elliss and brother of Kaden. Kaden was actually in the Seahawks 30 visit list in 2019 as a linebacker out of University of Idaho.
Jonah had a 2023 season with 16.0 TFL and 12.0 sacks, plus 3 hurries. Those numbers came over 10 games, as he finished the year sidelined with an arm injury. The per-game rate of Elliss’ production had him on pace to lead the country in sacks (finished 7th in straight counting), and 4th in TFL pace. He’s a little undersized at 6’2″/248lbs, but has good length at 33″ arms. There’s an incomplete athletic testing profile on him, but he did post 38″ vert and 10’00” broad jumps at his pro day.
Elliss has a spin move that is an absolute weapon in his rush.
#3.81 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha
I’m hoping the overall down opinion on this year’s linebacker and safety classes will allow some quality to still be available in the third round. The media seems to think Malik will be available much later than this, but personally I’d rather be able to pick him about 15 spots earlier than this. The value is somewhere in between Kevin Byard drafted at #64 and Justin Simmons at #98 in the same draft a few years back.
#3.99 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray
Cedric and Malik are two sides of the same coin. Both are high-floor players, with the chance to be foundational pieces due to their football IQ, high character, good production, and above average athleticism.
#4.123 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton
I’m sticking with Milton. This draft has fewer certainties at QB then the collective even realizes. And if that is the case; I would rather draft a bunch of safer bet players at other positions, and wait for Milton late, to hit a tremendous overall draft value. Think Dak Prescott. And if a Dak comp doesn’t excite you…ask yourself who some of these other reachable QB’s resemble. Bo Nix to Russell Wilson, but you might have to draft him before the third. Michael Penix to Geno Smith, but Penix probably a 1st to Geno’s 2nd. Spencer Rattler to Gardner Minshew, but Rattler maybe day 2 to Minshew’s day 3.
#5.127 – OT, Penn State, Caedan Wallace
When a position group is as deep as OT is this year; there should be value well into the draft. If Seattle can find a guy like Brandon Coleman, Christian Jones, or Wallace in the 5th; they will have a nice hedge for Abe Lucas should he falter.
Wallace was the right tackle counterpart to Olu Fashanu for Penn State. He measured out at the combine as 6’5″/314lbs, 34″ arms, 5.15s forty, a 31″ vert and a 9’08” broad jump.
#6.179 – DT, Northern Iowa, Khristian Boyd
These 5th, 6th, 7th round picks are common spots for Seattle to pick guys from their official 30 visit list. Boyd was one of those guys this year. He’s a 6’3″/325lb DT with short arms (31 7/8″), no official forty time, and only a 28.5″ vert and 8’02” broad. Oh, and he’s a sixth-year senior. If he was more of a standout athlete, or had more production vs lower level competition (3.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL); I’d be concerned about him going earlier than this. He still might. But he is a project, so I think he might be here.
#6.192 – TE, Illinois, Tip Reiman
The Seahawks have seemed to kind of narrow-focus their TE searches in the past to the 4th-5th round range, so they may pull the trigger earlier than this. I just love the value of Reiman here. He’s a 6’5″/271lb brute at the spot, who ran a 4.64s forty with 33.5″ vert and 10’01” broad jump. I like the combo of in-line blocking and pass-catching he brings.
#6.196 – LB, Washington, Edefuan Ulofoshio
I noticed something on the film studying UW this year, and it led me to believe that Ede was the true leader of that National Championship game Husky team. And Ryan Grubb is gonna have the best intel in the league on him. In terms of public knowledge…Ulofoshio posted a Combine weigh-in of 6’1″/236lbs, with a 4.56s forty, and really strong 39.5″ vert and 10’08” broad jumps. Great athlete. Great leader. In a weird way, this pick reminds me of the Kam Chancellor pick.
#7.235 – RB, Georgia, Kendall Milton
I really wasn’t sure what to do with this last pick. Part of me wanted to double down at the safety spot. I could have gone WR since this draft is really missing one. I don’t have a specific reason to go RB. Maybe more of a process of elimination. WR is believed to be one of the deeper positions in the draft, and in Seattle’s history; they’ve had better luck with undrafted free agent WR than taking one in the 7th (or really any WR after the 4th round). And the team, under this mock projection, will have the recruiting talking point that they just traded DK and didn’t draft a WR in the actual draft, which means opportunity for an UDFA.
Maybe this pick is too similar to last year when the Hawks took Georgia RB Kenny Mcintosh in the 7th. Mcintosh was 6’0″/216lbs and ran a 4.62s forty after posting 829 yards rushing (5.53ypc) and 10 TD in 2022. Milton was 6’2″/225lbs and ran the same 4.62s forty. He ran for 790 yards (6.53ypc) and 14 TD last year. In spite of the slow forty time, Milton has some huge explosive runs on tape.
This, admittedly, would be a very hard draft to execute. All those trades are way harder to negotiate and finalize in reality than just running some draft pick numbers into a trade value calculator. The key is, really, trading DK Metcalf. The value he would bring in draft capital return instantly patches a lot of the holes created by trades for Leonard Williams and Sam Howell. Without that trade; you’re likely looking at trading farther back from #16, which could be catastrophic to getting an actual 1st round graded player.
Buuuutttttt…if executed, we’re looking at 3 new DL, 2 new OL…trench dogs!…2 LB, 1 DS, 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 RB. It would be a very strong first draft for John Schneider with Mike Macdonald.
Seattle Seamocks 