By Jared Stanger
I really wasn’t planning on doing another mock this soon after my last only 10 days ago, but that particular mock was a very specific exercise in drafting. This version I will be free to draft in any manner that I choose. I was also motivated last night when I saw the news of Chiefs’ WR Rashee Rice having some potential legal problems stemming from his car accident last night. I feel like John Schneider has a card up his sleeve that will reveal itself coming up here shortly.
To me, the biggest chit Schneider has in his coffer is DK. Top WR are frequently traded for compensation that starts with a 1st round pick and includes multiple picks thereafter. But WR is also not a position you want to be spending big cap dollars on when you don’t have a stacked roster and/or a true franchise QB. The Chiefs are, obviously, in a win-now state. They have a great roster, they have a league MVP QB…if there is a possibility of them losing their top WR to suspension of any significant length; this move would prevent them from the steep dropoff from Rashee Rice to Kadarius Toney in terms of production at the WR spot. So the move becomes DK to KC for picks #1.32 and #3.95 this year, plus the Chiefs’ 3rd round pick in 2025.
The next trade Seattle makes is still the same trade I’ve been mocking for months: Seattle’s #1.16 to Green Bay for their picks at #1.25 plus #2.58.
And I will make a third trade, moving the Chiefs’ 1st rounder to the Commanders for their picks at #2.40 plus #3.100.
After these three moves, Seattle’s draft board would look like this:
#1.25 (GB)
#2.40 (WSH from CHI)
#2.58 (GB)
#3.81 (NO)
#3.95 (KC)
#3.100 (WSH from SF)
#4.102 (WSH)
#4.118
#6.179 (WSH)
#6.192
#7.235
Let’s start picking.
#1.25 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton
I’ve had Barton in previous mock drafts, but I moved off of him when I was having to trade down further than this in order to replenish day 2 with more ammo. Having made the DK deal, I am able to stick and pick Barton here. According to reports from Duke Pro Day; Barton weighed in at 6’5″/313lbs with 33″ arms and ran a 40 yard time somewhere between 4.84 to 4.95 seconds. Either is a great time.
Schneider on one of his recent radio appearances talked about the over-drafting of offensive guards into the league…Barton would be a college left tackle that we project to move to center. So I don’t think those comments would apply to him. Plus, in the history of his time in Seattle; John has drafted an OL in the 1st round four times: Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Germain Ifedi, Charles Cross. That’s two instances of drafting pro left tackles and two instances of drafting a college tackle that Seattle moved to guard. I also love the possibility that Barton could maybe be insurance at right tackle should Abe Lucas’ health continue to be an issue.
#2.40 – DT, Texas, T’vondre Sweat
In many of my previous mocks I had Seattle going with DT Kris Jenkins around this range as a sort of mirroring of Justin Madubuike in Mike Macdonald’s previous scheme in Baltimore. After doing a bit more consideration; I think maybe the re-signing of Leonard Williams marks that same positioning that Madubuike would have. So what Seattle really might be looking for is a true nose.
Sweat is the truest of true noses in this draft. He grades out very well against the run last year, but also did surprisingly well in passrush. There has been some recent “report” that questions his work ethic and/or endurance. I don’t know about that. I don’t get that vibe from him. But, more importantly, there is actual hard numbers that Sweat played in 62 games for Texas over a five year stretch. The number of games Texas has played in the last five years? 62 games. That’s right, the big man has not missed a single game in five years. That is, in itself, its own kind of endurance.
Now, in terms of how Texas managed his snap counts across that time; I don’t have answers there. I wish I did. But, when you cross reference snap counts to the Baltimore defense from last year; a nose tackle in the Macdonald scheme would likely be targeted to play between 40-55% of snaps. And it’s probably the low end of that for Sweat as a rookie.
Getting the draft’s #1 nose tackle at #40 overall is actually pretty great value. The Bucs got their guy, Vita Vea, at #12 overall. Philly got Jordan Davis at #13 overall. Dallas drafted Mazi Smith last year at #26 overall. And, yes, there were differing levels of athlete within that group at different weigh-in sizes, but for me it’s still a mark inefficiency this year that allows Sweat to hold value.
#2.58 – WR, South Carolina, Xavier Legette
I haven’t mocked many WR to Seattle in my drafts this year. When I have, it has come in direct response to doing mock trades where DK Metcalf was dealt. Another reason that I’d welcome trading DK, in addition to the trade return, is that this is considered a very good WR class. There is potential we see a draft like we did in 2019 where the 2nd round looked like this:
2.36 Deebo Samuel
2.51 AJ Brown
2.56 Mecole Hardman
2.57 JJ Arcega Whiteside
2.59 Parris Campbell
2.62 Andy Isabella
2.64 DK Metcalf
This year those names could look like Malachi Corley, Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson, Keon Coleman, Ja’lynn Polk and Legette. I went with Legette because, if we’re losing a big-bodied WR, I would like to add a big-bodied WR. I think with the hip-drop tackle ban; you’re gonna want to have a 220+ lb WR going up against 195lb corners.
Legette actually compares pretty closely to AJ Brown. Brown was 6’1″/226lbs with a 4.49s forty, 36.5″ vert, 10’00” broad. Legette is 6’1″/221lbs, with a 4.39s forty, 40″ vert, and 10’6″ broad.
#3.81 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha
Malik is a personal favorite for two years. I REALLY want to get him. This may not be high enough to still get him. I would be very willing to sacrifice Legette and look for alternatives at WR in order to secure Malik at #58. But, for now, I’m not seeing a huge spike on him nationally after running a 4.52s forty at Wake pro day. It still may be coming, which is why I preface the willingness to make a move on him in the 2nd.
#3.95 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray
Between their free agency signings and the reported prospects coming in for official visits; I think I’m starting to get a sense of what Mike Macdonald is looking for at linebacker. I think Payton Wilson should be monitored, but I don’t love the price he’ll probably command. I think there are also guys that should be available into day three that will come in to play later as options for double-dipping.
#3.100 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter
I had Zinter in my mock a few months back, and then went away from him in favor of OL with versatility to play right tackle in case Abe Lucas becomes an issue. Having locked down Graham Barton, who can play OT, in the 1st round; I’m coming back to Zinter as a true guard. I just want ZZ to be the leader he is in our OL room. We’ve got good athletes, we’ve got some guys with a bit of nastiness…I think we need that leader.
#4.102 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton
Nobody likes Joe Milton. I. DON’T. GIVE. A. FUCK. This is a value play. There is nothing wrong with getting a guy with Milton’s physical tools in the early 4th round. Teams miss on QB’s in the first round every year. You have mitigated the risk by getting him this late. This is great value.
Schneider has talked ad nauseum for years about the Green Bay philosophy to draft a QB every year (and the inherit shame that he’s only drafted two in 14 years). While I think that is excessive, I legitimately think there could be value in a philosophy to draft a QB every other year. A team should have one QB on their rookie deal at all times. Paying a guy $5-8 mill per year to be a backup when you’re also paying your starter $25-40 mill is poor roster construction.
If Seattle doesn’t make this move, I hope they draft John Rhys Plumlee in the 6th. I want them to have options to trade Geno Smith in August, and get their cap flexibility in better shape into 2025 and beyond.
#4.118 – DE, Grayson Murphy
I’m generally in favor of Seattle passing on DE this year. I think the dropoff after the 1st round is pretty severe. Murphy is a guy that is somewhat flying under the radar this year. He was essentially 3rd in priority in the UCLA DL group that featured likely 1st round pick Laiatu Latu, and Grayson’s literal identical twin brother Gabriel Murphy. Grayson missed the Senior Bowl and instead played (very well) in the Shrine Game. Grayson wasn’t invited to the Combine, and instead tested very well at Pro Day.
Seattle has bodies in their DE group. Uchenna Nwosu should be back healthy this year. Boye Mafe made great strides last year. Derick Hall was drafted very high and you’d hope for improvement year two. Darrell Taylor is a decent contributor back on a reasonable one-year deal. Murphy would be a nice athlete that can act as a bit of injury insurance.
#6.179 – TE, Tennessee, Mccallan Castles
This is a need pick. But Schneider himself has said the team is okay with drafting for need late. I’d love to find a way to land Illinois TE Tip Reiman, but I doubt he’s available this late. I wish Castles was a bit bigger body target, but he’s got decent athleticism, a willingness to block, and some pretty nice hands. If you can get a catch per game and maybe 3 season TD’s from him rookie year; that’s fine value.
#6.192 – LB, UTEP, Tyrice Knight
With the changing of coaching staffs; I think it might be likely we see double-dips at both linebacker and safety. We’ve already seen them let four combined starting linebackers and safeties from 2023 leave the team. Macdonald has something specific he’s looking for. Let’s give him four shots each (including the already signed free agents) at both spots.
Knight is a VMAC visit guy, so there’s clearly some interest here.
#7.235 – DS, TCU, Mark Perry
I think I have a better idea of what Macdonald is looking for at LB, but I’m still catching a vibe of what he may like at DS, as well. I think Dom Hampton is in play. I think Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo will be considered. I’m going with Perry because he’s a very nice athlete, but there’s not as much on tape to suggest he goes earlier. This is an upside play that probably needs to excel on special teams to make the team.
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