March mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I probably wrote a thousand words for another version of this mock Monday before deciding to scrap it. Part of that was where that mock was headed, but the bigger part was having an interesting idea that led to this version. This is a particular exercise in design, which I won’t spell out now. Maybe after the draft.

The first thing that this mock requires is some massive trading. I think Seattle may be fairly resigned to this route. There is too much heat on the QB class, and there are about 8 teams sitting in front of Seattle with at least some interest in drafting QB. There’s also a decent chance that Seattle may not have 16 players with 1st round grades. I definitely expect there will be some upsets in front of #16 that will allow a 1st round grade player to be there, but the need to add draft capital may outweigh the need to pick. I kinda think maybe the only plausible stick-n-pick player at #16 would be Jared Verse. Plausible, but not probable.

Because of the low number of viable 1st round graded players; a large trade back may be as useful as a small trade back. So for my first trade I am packaging Seattle’s #1.16 and #4.102 to trade with the Dan Morgan-led Panthers. Carolina has no 1st round pick, but they have two in the 2nd, and they have the very first pick in the 3rd round. If they give up the #2.33 and #2.39 they can climb all the way up into the middle 1st while still having nearly a 2nd-rounder at #3.65, plus two in the 4th.

The next move takes the freshly-acquired #2.39 and moves it down. There’s two targets: 1) Detroit sitting at #2.61 + #3.73, 2) Arizona sitting at #3.66, #3.71, #3.90. The Cardinals, with the three 3rd’s, makes a certain amount more sense, but of course it would be preferential for Seattle to get the deal done with Detroit. I’m doing the Detroit deal.

The third trade I have Seattle moving pick #3.81 to Mike Macdonald’s former team. Baltimore gives us #3.93 plus #4.113 to move up 12 spots.

With these three moves, Seattle goes from two picks in the top 100 overall to four picks, which I think is crucial this year. This is better positioning for this draft and what Seattle needs to get done.

#2.33 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins

It’s going to be something to be very aware of this year where the Ravens and Chargers, the Harbaugh brothers’ teams, will be drafting. I’m a little more worried about Jim, with his immediate proximity to the Michigan roster. So, to me, it was important for this trade back not to go past #36 overall.

There is, and will be more, chatter about Seattle taking Texas DT Byron Murphy. It’s a bit of the same conversation that we had last year about Jalen Carter. Only this year, unlike last year, I think there are comparable players available later in the draft. I think Murphy, Jenkins and Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro are three peas in a pod. In many ways, I think Seattle may favor Kris and Ruke. Both measure up very similarly to Justin Madubuike. Honestly, Ruke may be the closest match.

I’m taking Jenkins here because of his connection to Macdonald and because I just think he’s the more compelling intangibles player, but Ruke is not far behind.

#2.61 – OC, South Dakota State, Mason McCormick

I THINK I have a pretty good guess of what Seattle is looking for in a Center. They also need a left guard. McCormick has played primarily left guard in his SDSU career, but I think his profile looks like a Seattle center more than a Seattle guard. And this is an important distinction because Schneider recently slammed the over-drafting of guards. But he didn’t say Center.

If Seattle sees Mccormick as a Center; this is not too high of a draft value.

#3.73 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Mustapha is a long-tenured member of the Sea-mocks, and he will continue on for at least this mock. I wish we had testing on him (Wake Forest pro day on March 27th, I believe), but at the same time if the testing is good his price goes up. And I’m plenty comfortable with him off tape.

I had some thoughts of taking a linebacker here, but I had the next thought that, “if the draft isn’t strong at LB, and if you draft a DT in front of the LB early, and then you draft a DS behind the LB next, maybe you’re compensating for the LB in the aggregate.” I like that. Let’s try it.

#3.93 – OT, Texas, Christian Jones

I just think it’s good draft strategy to pick from the position groups of best depth in a given year. This year, one of the best position groups HAS to be offensive tackle. How far Seattle kicks the position down the draft is probably dependent on what they feel the future of Abe Lucas is. If they think he still has some years of playing RT left; you maybe draft an OT in the 6th round. If you think you need to prolong his career by kicking him inside to guard; I think you draft an OT in 3rd-4th. Lucas himself was a 3rd round pick, so I think there’s some symmetry here.

Jones has the requisite size at 6’5″/305lbs, 34.5″ arms…the right athleticism 5.04s forty…and the right value.

#4.113 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

I vacillated about drafting a QB or not so much over the last week since Seattle acquired Sam Howell via trade. Ultimately, I came back to drafting a QB because 1) they are NOT going to pay Geno Smith $38mill in 2025, 2) I don’t think Sam Howell is any kind of answer, 3) John Schneider has publicly said he feels ashamed that they’ve only drafted two QB across 14-15 years.

In terms of Milton…when I listened to John talk about what he thought of Sam Howell that led to them acquiring him…I don’t think there was a single thing, outside of Howell playing well directly vs Seattle, that doesn’t also apply to Joe Milton. But Milton will give you four years of team control, vs the two that Howell represents.

I don’t know what happens after creating a three-QB room…maybe they carry three for a year (that used to be the standard in the NFL), maybe Smith or Howell become immediate trade bait during the draft for someone that missed on drafting a rookie-starter type QB, maybe the trade happens in preseason after another team suffers an injury at the position, etc.

Howell, at 18 career starts, is only 3 starts less-experienced than Drew Lock was when Seattle acquired Drew two years ago, and he’s only 13 fewer starts than Geno Smith had when he came here in 2020. So while I, in no way, believe Howell is a long-term answer; he is no different than what we’ve been rolling out the last two years. He’s still just a bridge guy, but he’s a cheaper bridge guy.

I think the era of drafting a QB every year starts now.

#4.118 – TE, Illinois, Tip Reiman

Tip was not a guy I had looked at before the Combine, but he really caught my eye there. I think he’d make a great addition to a MacDonald offense. He’s 6’5″/271lbs and 10.5″ hands. Forty of 4.64s is VERY good for a guy his size. In many years, this may be too late to get him, but as hard as the league went on TE in free agency leads me to believe they don’t love the TE in the draft. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your slowest friend.

#6.179 – LB, Temple, Jordan Magee

The biggest change to this mock from previous versions was the way linebacker was pushed down the board after Seattle free agency. I really wish I could have made Cedric Gray fit, but I talked about some of my thought process on it, and then Magee sort of feels like poor-man’s Cedric. Magee measured 6’1″/228lbs with a 4.55s forty at the combine.

#6.192 – OT, TCU, Brandon Coleman

Part of the reason that you draft to the strength of a draft class is that, with numbers at a position; talent will fall. When the strong position is offensive tackle, you can also find value by moving a college OT to OG as a pro.

That is another reason I really believe Schneider when he talks about the value of guards. Think of all the times he’s drafted a college offensive tackle (and sometimes defensive tackle) and moved him to Guard: James Carpenter, Justin Britt, Germain Ifedi, Ethan Pocic (to an extent).

Coleman is a 6’5″/313lb college left tackle (listed at 320 by TCU) with 34 5/8″ arms and a 4.99s forty. I don’t think he’s gonna be useful year one, but we’re drafting him in the 6th round. If we can develop him, and if perhaps getting his weight back up into the 320’s and a move inside to guard could benefit him.

#7.235 – LB, UTEP, Tyrice Knight

Tyrice, after Magee, represents a second lottery ticket at the LB spot in a year that there aren’t really many super clean LB prospects. Maybe Mike Macdonald feels like he can develop a guy with X, Y, Z traits. Knight is 6’1″/233lb and ran a 4.63s forty and was not terribly impressive in the jumps. But he’s got a 30 visit with Seattle, and this is the range where Seattle will pick guys they had in their building (see Jerrick Reed last year).

This was a very specific drafting exercise, but I’m really not mad at how it turned out. There are guys I wish I could have matched up with. I love the Michigan guard Zak Zinter, but is his price down enough to allow John to draft a guard? I talked a bit about LB Cedric Gray. I punted on the WR position thinking about all the times Seattle has had success on undrafted WR (Baldwin, Kearse, Bobo, etc), and the guy I’d prioritize this rookie free agency is Pitt WR Bub Means. I also really would have liked to get a second safety with a pick, with my target being Kansas safety Kenny Logan, but I’m not sure the safety room needed another body with Love and Reed back, new signings in Jenkins and Wallace, and the draftee Mustapha in the earlier round.