Month: March 2024

SEaster Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I really wasn’t planning on doing another mock this soon after my last only 10 days ago, but that particular mock was a very specific exercise in drafting. This version I will be free to draft in any manner that I choose. I was also motivated last night when I saw the news of Chiefs’ WR Rashee Rice having some potential legal problems stemming from his car accident last night. I feel like John Schneider has a card up his sleeve that will reveal itself coming up here shortly.

To me, the biggest chit Schneider has in his coffer is DK. Top WR are frequently traded for compensation that starts with a 1st round pick and includes multiple picks thereafter. But WR is also not a position you want to be spending big cap dollars on when you don’t have a stacked roster and/or a true franchise QB. The Chiefs are, obviously, in a win-now state. They have a great roster, they have a league MVP QB…if there is a possibility of them losing their top WR to suspension of any significant length; this move would prevent them from the steep dropoff from Rashee Rice to Kadarius Toney in terms of production at the WR spot. So the move becomes DK to KC for picks #1.32 and #3.95 this year, plus the Chiefs’ 3rd round pick in 2025.

The next trade Seattle makes is still the same trade I’ve been mocking for months: Seattle’s #1.16 to Green Bay for their picks at #1.25 plus #2.58.

And I will make a third trade, moving the Chiefs’ 1st rounder to the Commanders for their picks at #2.40 plus #3.100.

After these three moves, Seattle’s draft board would look like this:

#1.25 (GB)
#2.40 (WSH from CHI)
#2.58 (GB)
#3.81 (NO)
#3.95 (KC)
#3.100 (WSH from SF)
#4.102 (WSH)
#4.118
#6.179 (WSH)
#6.192
#7.235

Let’s start picking.

#1.25 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton

I’ve had Barton in previous mock drafts, but I moved off of him when I was having to trade down further than this in order to replenish day 2 with more ammo. Having made the DK deal, I am able to stick and pick Barton here. According to reports from Duke Pro Day; Barton weighed in at 6’5″/313lbs with 33″ arms and ran a 40 yard time somewhere between 4.84 to 4.95 seconds. Either is a great time.

Schneider on one of his recent radio appearances talked about the over-drafting of offensive guards into the league…Barton would be a college left tackle that we project to move to center. So I don’t think those comments would apply to him. Plus, in the history of his time in Seattle; John has drafted an OL in the 1st round four times: Russell Okung, James Carpenter, Germain Ifedi, Charles Cross. That’s two instances of drafting pro left tackles and two instances of drafting a college tackle that Seattle moved to guard. I also love the possibility that Barton could maybe be insurance at right tackle should Abe Lucas’ health continue to be an issue.

#2.40 – DT, Texas, T’vondre Sweat

In many of my previous mocks I had Seattle going with DT Kris Jenkins around this range as a sort of mirroring of Justin Madubuike in Mike Macdonald’s previous scheme in Baltimore. After doing a bit more consideration; I think maybe the re-signing of Leonard Williams marks that same positioning that Madubuike would have. So what Seattle really might be looking for is a true nose.

Sweat is the truest of true noses in this draft. He grades out very well against the run last year, but also did surprisingly well in passrush. There has been some recent “report” that questions his work ethic and/or endurance. I don’t know about that. I don’t get that vibe from him. But, more importantly, there is actual hard numbers that Sweat played in 62 games for Texas over a five year stretch. The number of games Texas has played in the last five years? 62 games. That’s right, the big man has not missed a single game in five years. That is, in itself, its own kind of endurance.

Now, in terms of how Texas managed his snap counts across that time; I don’t have answers there. I wish I did. But, when you cross reference snap counts to the Baltimore defense from last year; a nose tackle in the Macdonald scheme would likely be targeted to play between 40-55% of snaps. And it’s probably the low end of that for Sweat as a rookie.

Getting the draft’s #1 nose tackle at #40 overall is actually pretty great value. The Bucs got their guy, Vita Vea, at #12 overall. Philly got Jordan Davis at #13 overall. Dallas drafted Mazi Smith last year at #26 overall. And, yes, there were differing levels of athlete within that group at different weigh-in sizes, but for me it’s still a mark inefficiency this year that allows Sweat to hold value.

#2.58 – WR, South Carolina, Xavier Legette

I haven’t mocked many WR to Seattle in my drafts this year. When I have, it has come in direct response to doing mock trades where DK Metcalf was dealt. Another reason that I’d welcome trading DK, in addition to the trade return, is that this is considered a very good WR class. There is potential we see a draft like we did in 2019 where the 2nd round looked like this:

2.36 Deebo Samuel
2.51 AJ Brown
2.56 Mecole Hardman
2.57 JJ Arcega Whiteside
2.59 Parris Campbell
2.62 Andy Isabella
2.64 DK Metcalf

This year those names could look like Malachi Corley, Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson, Keon Coleman, Ja’lynn Polk and Legette. I went with Legette because, if we’re losing a big-bodied WR, I would like to add a big-bodied WR. I think with the hip-drop tackle ban; you’re gonna want to have a 220+ lb WR going up against 195lb corners.

Legette actually compares pretty closely to AJ Brown. Brown was 6’1″/226lbs with a 4.49s forty, 36.5″ vert, 10’00” broad. Legette is 6’1″/221lbs, with a 4.39s forty, 40″ vert, and 10’6″ broad.

#3.81 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Malik is a personal favorite for two years. I REALLY want to get him. This may not be high enough to still get him. I would be very willing to sacrifice Legette and look for alternatives at WR in order to secure Malik at #58. But, for now, I’m not seeing a huge spike on him nationally after running a 4.52s forty at Wake pro day. It still may be coming, which is why I preface the willingness to make a move on him in the 2nd.

#3.95 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray

Between their free agency signings and the reported prospects coming in for official visits; I think I’m starting to get a sense of what Mike Macdonald is looking for at linebacker. I think Payton Wilson should be monitored, but I don’t love the price he’ll probably command. I think there are also guys that should be available into day three that will come in to play later as options for double-dipping.

#3.100 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter

I had Zinter in my mock a few months back, and then went away from him in favor of OL with versatility to play right tackle in case Abe Lucas becomes an issue. Having locked down Graham Barton, who can play OT, in the 1st round; I’m coming back to Zinter as a true guard. I just want ZZ to be the leader he is in our OL room. We’ve got good athletes, we’ve got some guys with a bit of nastiness…I think we need that leader.

#4.102 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

Nobody likes Joe Milton. I. DON’T. GIVE. A. FUCK. This is a value play. There is nothing wrong with getting a guy with Milton’s physical tools in the early 4th round. Teams miss on QB’s in the first round every year. You have mitigated the risk by getting him this late. This is great value.

Schneider has talked ad nauseum for years about the Green Bay philosophy to draft a QB every year (and the inherit shame that he’s only drafted two in 14 years). While I think that is excessive, I legitimately think there could be value in a philosophy to draft a QB every other year. A team should have one QB on their rookie deal at all times. Paying a guy $5-8 mill per year to be a backup when you’re also paying your starter $25-40 mill is poor roster construction.

If Seattle doesn’t make this move, I hope they draft John Rhys Plumlee in the 6th. I want them to have options to trade Geno Smith in August, and get their cap flexibility in better shape into 2025 and beyond.

#4.118 – DE, Grayson Murphy

I’m generally in favor of Seattle passing on DE this year. I think the dropoff after the 1st round is pretty severe. Murphy is a guy that is somewhat flying under the radar this year. He was essentially 3rd in priority in the UCLA DL group that featured likely 1st round pick Laiatu Latu, and Grayson’s literal identical twin brother Gabriel Murphy. Grayson missed the Senior Bowl and instead played (very well) in the Shrine Game. Grayson wasn’t invited to the Combine, and instead tested very well at Pro Day.

Seattle has bodies in their DE group. Uchenna Nwosu should be back healthy this year. Boye Mafe made great strides last year. Derick Hall was drafted very high and you’d hope for improvement year two. Darrell Taylor is a decent contributor back on a reasonable one-year deal. Murphy would be a nice athlete that can act as a bit of injury insurance.

#6.179 – TE, Tennessee, Mccallan Castles

This is a need pick. But Schneider himself has said the team is okay with drafting for need late. I’d love to find a way to land Illinois TE Tip Reiman, but I doubt he’s available this late. I wish Castles was a bit bigger body target, but he’s got decent athleticism, a willingness to block, and some pretty nice hands. If you can get a catch per game and maybe 3 season TD’s from him rookie year; that’s fine value.

#6.192 – LB, UTEP, Tyrice Knight

With the changing of coaching staffs; I think it might be likely we see double-dips at both linebacker and safety. We’ve already seen them let four combined starting linebackers and safeties from 2023 leave the team. Macdonald has something specific he’s looking for. Let’s give him four shots each (including the already signed free agents) at both spots.

Knight is a VMAC visit guy, so there’s clearly some interest here.

#7.235 – DS, TCU, Mark Perry

I think I have a better idea of what Macdonald is looking for at LB, but I’m still catching a vibe of what he may like at DS, as well. I think Dom Hampton is in play. I think Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo will be considered. I’m going with Perry because he’s a very nice athlete, but there’s not as much on tape to suggest he goes earlier. This is an upside play that probably needs to excel on special teams to make the team.

March mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

I probably wrote a thousand words for another version of this mock Monday before deciding to scrap it. Part of that was where that mock was headed, but the bigger part was having an interesting idea that led to this version. This is a particular exercise in design, which I won’t spell out now. Maybe after the draft.

The first thing that this mock requires is some massive trading. I think Seattle may be fairly resigned to this route. There is too much heat on the QB class, and there are about 8 teams sitting in front of Seattle with at least some interest in drafting QB. There’s also a decent chance that Seattle may not have 16 players with 1st round grades. I definitely expect there will be some upsets in front of #16 that will allow a 1st round grade player to be there, but the need to add draft capital may outweigh the need to pick. I kinda think maybe the only plausible stick-n-pick player at #16 would be Jared Verse. Plausible, but not probable.

Because of the low number of viable 1st round graded players; a large trade back may be as useful as a small trade back. So for my first trade I am packaging Seattle’s #1.16 and #4.102 to trade with the Dan Morgan-led Panthers. Carolina has no 1st round pick, but they have two in the 2nd, and they have the very first pick in the 3rd round. If they give up the #2.33 and #2.39 they can climb all the way up into the middle 1st while still having nearly a 2nd-rounder at #3.65, plus two in the 4th.

The next move takes the freshly-acquired #2.39 and moves it down. There’s two targets: 1) Detroit sitting at #2.61 + #3.73, 2) Arizona sitting at #3.66, #3.71, #3.90. The Cardinals, with the three 3rd’s, makes a certain amount more sense, but of course it would be preferential for Seattle to get the deal done with Detroit. I’m doing the Detroit deal.

The third trade I have Seattle moving pick #3.81 to Mike Macdonald’s former team. Baltimore gives us #3.93 plus #4.113 to move up 12 spots.

With these three moves, Seattle goes from two picks in the top 100 overall to four picks, which I think is crucial this year. This is better positioning for this draft and what Seattle needs to get done.

#2.33 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins

It’s going to be something to be very aware of this year where the Ravens and Chargers, the Harbaugh brothers’ teams, will be drafting. I’m a little more worried about Jim, with his immediate proximity to the Michigan roster. So, to me, it was important for this trade back not to go past #36 overall.

There is, and will be more, chatter about Seattle taking Texas DT Byron Murphy. It’s a bit of the same conversation that we had last year about Jalen Carter. Only this year, unlike last year, I think there are comparable players available later in the draft. I think Murphy, Jenkins and Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro are three peas in a pod. In many ways, I think Seattle may favor Kris and Ruke. Both measure up very similarly to Justin Madubuike. Honestly, Ruke may be the closest match.

I’m taking Jenkins here because of his connection to Macdonald and because I just think he’s the more compelling intangibles player, but Ruke is not far behind.

#2.61 – OC, South Dakota State, Mason McCormick

I THINK I have a pretty good guess of what Seattle is looking for in a Center. They also need a left guard. McCormick has played primarily left guard in his SDSU career, but I think his profile looks like a Seattle center more than a Seattle guard. And this is an important distinction because Schneider recently slammed the over-drafting of guards. But he didn’t say Center.

If Seattle sees Mccormick as a Center; this is not too high of a draft value.

#3.73 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha

Mustapha is a long-tenured member of the Sea-mocks, and he will continue on for at least this mock. I wish we had testing on him (Wake Forest pro day on March 27th, I believe), but at the same time if the testing is good his price goes up. And I’m plenty comfortable with him off tape.

I had some thoughts of taking a linebacker here, but I had the next thought that, “if the draft isn’t strong at LB, and if you draft a DT in front of the LB early, and then you draft a DS behind the LB next, maybe you’re compensating for the LB in the aggregate.” I like that. Let’s try it.

#3.93 – OT, Texas, Christian Jones

I just think it’s good draft strategy to pick from the position groups of best depth in a given year. This year, one of the best position groups HAS to be offensive tackle. How far Seattle kicks the position down the draft is probably dependent on what they feel the future of Abe Lucas is. If they think he still has some years of playing RT left; you maybe draft an OT in the 6th round. If you think you need to prolong his career by kicking him inside to guard; I think you draft an OT in 3rd-4th. Lucas himself was a 3rd round pick, so I think there’s some symmetry here.

Jones has the requisite size at 6’5″/305lbs, 34.5″ arms…the right athleticism 5.04s forty…and the right value.

#4.113 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton

I vacillated about drafting a QB or not so much over the last week since Seattle acquired Sam Howell via trade. Ultimately, I came back to drafting a QB because 1) they are NOT going to pay Geno Smith $38mill in 2025, 2) I don’t think Sam Howell is any kind of answer, 3) John Schneider has publicly said he feels ashamed that they’ve only drafted two QB across 14-15 years.

In terms of Milton…when I listened to John talk about what he thought of Sam Howell that led to them acquiring him…I don’t think there was a single thing, outside of Howell playing well directly vs Seattle, that doesn’t also apply to Joe Milton. But Milton will give you four years of team control, vs the two that Howell represents.

I don’t know what happens after creating a three-QB room…maybe they carry three for a year (that used to be the standard in the NFL), maybe Smith or Howell become immediate trade bait during the draft for someone that missed on drafting a rookie-starter type QB, maybe the trade happens in preseason after another team suffers an injury at the position, etc.

Howell, at 18 career starts, is only 3 starts less-experienced than Drew Lock was when Seattle acquired Drew two years ago, and he’s only 13 fewer starts than Geno Smith had when he came here in 2020. So while I, in no way, believe Howell is a long-term answer; he is no different than what we’ve been rolling out the last two years. He’s still just a bridge guy, but he’s a cheaper bridge guy.

I think the era of drafting a QB every year starts now.

#4.118 – TE, Illinois, Tip Reiman

Tip was not a guy I had looked at before the Combine, but he really caught my eye there. I think he’d make a great addition to a MacDonald offense. He’s 6’5″/271lbs and 10.5″ hands. Forty of 4.64s is VERY good for a guy his size. In many years, this may be too late to get him, but as hard as the league went on TE in free agency leads me to believe they don’t love the TE in the draft. You don’t have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun your slowest friend.

#6.179 – LB, Temple, Jordan Magee

The biggest change to this mock from previous versions was the way linebacker was pushed down the board after Seattle free agency. I really wish I could have made Cedric Gray fit, but I talked about some of my thought process on it, and then Magee sort of feels like poor-man’s Cedric. Magee measured 6’1″/228lbs with a 4.55s forty at the combine.

#6.192 – OT, TCU, Brandon Coleman

Part of the reason that you draft to the strength of a draft class is that, with numbers at a position; talent will fall. When the strong position is offensive tackle, you can also find value by moving a college OT to OG as a pro.

That is another reason I really believe Schneider when he talks about the value of guards. Think of all the times he’s drafted a college offensive tackle (and sometimes defensive tackle) and moved him to Guard: James Carpenter, Justin Britt, Germain Ifedi, Ethan Pocic (to an extent).

Coleman is a 6’5″/313lb college left tackle (listed at 320 by TCU) with 34 5/8″ arms and a 4.99s forty. I don’t think he’s gonna be useful year one, but we’re drafting him in the 6th round. If we can develop him, and if perhaps getting his weight back up into the 320’s and a move inside to guard could benefit him.

#7.235 – LB, UTEP, Tyrice Knight

Tyrice, after Magee, represents a second lottery ticket at the LB spot in a year that there aren’t really many super clean LB prospects. Maybe Mike Macdonald feels like he can develop a guy with X, Y, Z traits. Knight is 6’1″/233lb and ran a 4.63s forty and was not terribly impressive in the jumps. But he’s got a 30 visit with Seattle, and this is the range where Seattle will pick guys they had in their building (see Jerrick Reed last year).

This was a very specific drafting exercise, but I’m really not mad at how it turned out. There are guys I wish I could have matched up with. I love the Michigan guard Zak Zinter, but is his price down enough to allow John to draft a guard? I talked a bit about LB Cedric Gray. I punted on the WR position thinking about all the times Seattle has had success on undrafted WR (Baldwin, Kearse, Bobo, etc), and the guy I’d prioritize this rookie free agency is Pitt WR Bub Means. I also really would have liked to get a second safety with a pick, with my target being Kansas safety Kenny Logan, but I’m not sure the safety room needed another body with Love and Reed back, new signings in Jenkins and Wallace, and the draftee Mustapha in the earlier round.