By Jared Stanger
Welcome to Draft Season!!
The 2023 NFL season is now officially in the books, and now we can turn the page to free agency and the draft. This will also mark my first mock draft ever written with a coach other than Pete Carroll in charge.
While we do know that Mike Macdonald is our new coach, with Ryan Grubb our new offensive coordinator and Aden Durde the new defensive coordinator…we still have some questions in terms of roster. The biggest of which will be the status of QB Geno Smith, but to various lesser degrees also Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Bryan Mone, Will Dissly. Some of these answers may come as soon as this week, while others may linger into June.
On the subject of Geno; it is still not entirely clear to me if this week’s contract guarantee deadline precludes the team from trading Geno once the new league season starts in March. Is there a tampering allowance where Seattle can negotiate a trade now for a trade that won’t officially take place until March? Without this clarification; I’m operating under the belief that Seattle will either cut him, or keep him and let his contract guarantee. So I’m cutting him.
Multiple of the previously named vet players could be some combination of trade or cap-cut, but outside of Lockett I don’t really see a ton of trade value. We might see some trades, but I just don’t have enough feel for who would go where and for what. I’m not gonna include those types of deals in this mock.
So I’m left to only trade draft capital for draft capital. Which is unfortunate cause I’d really like to get up to 6 picks in the top 100 overall. Seattle currently has three: #1.16, #3.78, #3.81. I’m sticking with the same trade I’ve been making in previous mocks: moving #16 to the Packers. Packers have three picks in the top 60, so packaging two to move up for, say, an offensive tackle would still leave them drafting once in the 1st and once in the 2nd. The total trade is #1.16 for #1.25 + #2.58.
The next trade I don’t have as much plausible reasoning for. Looking at the range I’d like to trade back to, and which teams in that range have surplus draft capital…I kinda see two teams: San Francisco and Arizona. Division rivals. Great.
The Niners have 11 total picks including four top 100, and the Cards have 13 total picks with six in the top 100. Arizona has the #4 and #27 overall picks, so maybe it’s less likely they want to move up two picks. I’m doing a trade with the Niners where you give #25 for their #1.31 and #3.94. Seahawks new adjusted draft board:
#1.31
#2.58
#3.78
#3.81
#3.94
#4.118
#5.150
#6.193
#7.232
It’s still not where I’d like to be, but I don’t think we get there without trading Geno or Tyler for a 2nd(+).
The addition of Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb have only intensified the speculation that Seattle will draft Michael Penix (who Grubb coached at UW the last two years), or JJ McCarthy (who Macdonald shared time with at Michigan in 2021). I keep adding in Joe Milton who, while he didn’t directly crossover with Macdonald at Michigan, would be familiar with the Harbaugh scheme from his first couple college years. The question for me is: does Seattle now favor the type of QB Grubb prefers which probably tends more towards a pocket-passer, or would it be the type of QB Macdonald has been exposed to via both Harbaugh teams that can run a bit a la McCarthy or Lamar Jackson. Another way to look at it: do you favor the league MVP style QB (Lamar Jackson) or the Super Bowl MVP style QB (Patrick Mahomes)?
If the answer to these questions is “pocket passer”, I think you draft Penix at #31. If the answer is “Lamar/Dak/Jalen/Josh/Justin”, I think you pass on McCarthy and take Joe Milton with a two-round discount.
#1.31 – DT, Michigan, Kris Jenkins
I think the first pick of the Macdonald era is a guy he coached at Michigan. Kris Jenkins is NFL legacy. He was a team captain at Michigan this year, and was on the roster in 2021 when Macdonald was there. He is an athletic freak. He has underwhelming individual 2023 production, but on a team defense that ranked top 10 nationally and won the natty. He’s kind of Jalen Carter with way better character and much lower draft buzz. Even if he’s not Carter, if you can get Justin Madubuike out him; that’s worthy of the late-1st pick. Certainly, from a measurements perspective, Jenkins is almost identical to Madubuike.
#2.58 – OC, Georgia, Sedrick Van Pran Granger
This might be a bit of a reach, but in this projection Seattle has missed on Jackson Powers-Johnson, Zach Frazier, Graham Barton, and Christian Haynes. SVPG is a two-time National Champion and an instant starter at a position that Seattle really needs to find a long-term answer for.
#3.78 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton
I think there’s a high likelihood I’m wrong about this pick, but I just prefer the tie-breaker that is the broader draft strategy which allows us to address multiple other positions while still finding upside at the QB spot. I just think Milton’s tangibles resemble so many of today’s most-successful starting QB, while his intangibles could be the secret sauce that put him ahead in the long-game of basic ass bitches like Bo Nix and JJ Mccarthy. And let’s not forget…Penix being Deboer/Grubb’s pick for a 1-2 year stretch in college is not the same as an NFL team committing 4 years to him and his iffy medicals.
At this point, it really dawns on me I need another pick before the 5th round. This draft is pretty problematic after roughly pick #150. With two picks within a three-pick run; #81 is a good pick to move back. Just going with the trade chart; I like moving #81 to Jacksonville for their #3.96 and #4.114. The Jags traded their native #79 pick to Atlanta, but they have a 3rd round comp pick and two 4th’s, so moving up like this actually balances out their board.
#3.94 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha
I did a study yesterday on 260 players in this draft with the goal of finding ways to maximize value. It really didn’t do much to reveal anything special about the top end of the draft. That you basically just need to take at face value. But I think it showed some things about the tiers of the draft, and especially the position groups that are generally undervalued in this draft, and/or positions with particular depth later into the draft.
Running back was far and away the most undervalued position in this draft. More on that later. But the rest of the value positions ended up being defense. There’s some late value at defensive end. There’s a pretty wide group of linebackers with late value. And there is a narrower group, but with some higher hotspots in the secondary.
Mustapha has been in my previous mocks and he’ll stay in them until his draft stock spikes too much from (likely) the Combine.
#3.96 – LB, North Carolina, Cedric Gray
Cedric falls exactly in line with the same thought processes and backstory as Malik. He stays in the mock until he’s priced out. Just a well-rounded LB that could be Seattle’s version of a Fred Warner type.
#4.114 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter
This marks probably the first spot in this mock to make some truly difficult decisions. This pick could easily be another DL player. Either a speed edge, a 5tech, or another IDL. I kinda had Alabama DL Justin Eboigbe earmarked for this spot. I decided to take another OL because the team is losing more OL to free agency than DL.
Zak Zinter is a glue guy. Another Michigan team captain, Zinter plays an undervalued position and is coming off an injury in his last game of college ball, so I think we’re stealing value to get him in the 4th.
#4.118 – OT, Texas, Christian Jones
This is one of the biggest changes I’m making from my previous mocks. I posted recently on social (or re-posted, really) an image from Abe Lucas working out in the offseason that really spooked me, and kind of solidified some speculation that his knee health is not long for the league.
So I’m pivoting and forcing a pick on an OT. It’s a pivot that I’m kind of happy to make, as I believe in drafting from the strengths of each draft class, and this class is very deep at OT, and that allows value to fall. Jones really popped up on my radar during the college playoff vs UW, and even more so with his weigh-in and practice work at the Senior Bowl.
#5.150 – CB, Tennessee, Kamal Hadden
Another new pivot. Without the benefit of an additional 2nd round pick via trade; the domino effect is pushing a CB pick, which isn’t a big “need”, down the board. Hadden was another guy that was having a very solid season before it was ended abruptly via injury. Listed 6’1″/197lbs, Hadden had 3 INT and 8 PBU in 7 games before he was injured.
#6.193 – DS, Kansas, Kenny Logan
I think there was a point in 2022 draft cycle I had Kenny Logan in one of my mock drafts. He stayed in school, and I kinda forgot about him until just in the last couple weeks when Macdonald was hired and I started looking closer at how Baltimore used their safeties. This might be the biggest change from the Carroll defense, where we had really become used to a pretty big delineation between strong safety and free safety. Macdonald safeties might be a bit more interchangeable.
With both Adams and Diggs potential cap-cuts; I think Seattle needs to add two safeties this draft. And the hidden value of the position in this class really works to our favor. Logan is listed 6’0″/210lbs and posted nearly 100 tackles for the second consecutive year (106 to 95, ’22 to ’23), and added 1 INT, 6 PBU, and 7.0 TFL. Another name to watch here would be Oregon State safety Kitan Oladapo, for similar reasons.
#7.232 – LB, Wake Forest, Jacob Roberts
There were a couple different directions I could have taken this pick. The value left on the board at RB would make sense here, but that value might still be there in UDFA. A TE would fill a need, but I don’t think the talent is worth it. Plus, Ryan Grubb may be able to recruit Jack Westover or Devin Culp in UDFA.
Instead, I doubled-down on linebackers. Roberts is kind of a personal pick of mine that is not getting draftable grades from basically anywhere, but I think his skillset would fit brilliantly in a Macdonald scheme. I’d love to see how MM uses Roberts in blitzes. If Seattle re-signs Jordyn Brooks, drafts Cedric Gray (or another LB) earlier this year; Roberts would make an interesting Malcolm Smith type player to the other guys Wagner/Wright.
Seattle Seamocks 