By Jared Stanger
It’s the middle of December 2023. The Seahawks are four-deep into the longest losing streak of the Pete Carroll era, with a chance to make it five on Monday night versus the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. There is more uncertainty about the future of this team than we’ve seen in 12+ years.
There are legitimate questions about whether Pete should continue as the coach. That will be a bigger decision for after the season. The easier call should be that a change needs to be made at quarterback. With the latter in mind, I will propose three things:
- Trade Geno Smith to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Geno’s contract, although putting a strain on the Seahawks’ limited cap situation, is not excessive to the point of being unwieldy for teams like Tampa who have around $50mill in space for the 2024 season. The Bucs’ current starter, Baker Mayfield, is on a one-year deal. And, former Seahawk QB coach, Dave Canales is in Tampa as their Offensive Coordinator. So he could know Geno and how to maximize him. I’m asking for the Bucs’ 2nd round pick for Geno. We’ve now replaced the pick given up to get Leonard Williams.
- Send the Detroit Lions the third round pick we acquired from Denver in last year’s draft (est. #3.79) in exchange for second year QB Hendon Hooker. Hendon has yet to play as a pro after coming off a knee injury sustained at end of 2022 college season. Tough to gauge his value, so I’m using kind of the “original round tender” idea and giving Detroit the same value they used to draft him last year. I like Hendon more than any of the 2024 class.
- Draft a QB from the 2024 class. More on this later
Heading into the draft, I really don’t love the value of the mid-first round players. If you’ve missed on the top three QB’s, which I believe they will, and you’re not terribly interested in drafting one of the top OT on the board, which could fit this range, then I think you might as well trade down.
I will make one quick aside in that I am, for the first time, re-considering Michael Penix. I’ve always liked Penix’ intangibles, but I’ve had questions on the physicals. There’s the obvious injury stuff, he’s not the runner that Russell Wilson was coming out of college and I think PCJS prefer, and I think his arm talent is overrated in the media. But…the thing that I recently looked at that is, at least anecdotally, interesting is the hit rate of………the Heisman runner(s)-up. Look at some of these top 2’s:
Bryce Young or Aidan Hutchinson?
Devonta Smith or Trevor Lawrence?
Joe Burrow or Jalen Hurts?
Kyler Murray or Tua Tagavailoa?
Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey?
Robert Griffin or Andrew Luck?
Cam Newton or Andrew Luck?
Matt Leinart or Adrian Peterson?
Jason White or Larry Fitzgerald?
Charles Woodson or Peyton Manning?
I think the 2023 NFL season, and the number of random-ass QB’s that are being forced into duty AND winning games, is showing the modern league may have to change the way it evaluates QB’s. From the on-going rags to riches story of Brock Purdy, to guys just recently splashing like Jake Browning, Tommy Devito, Aidan O’Connell…maybe to lesser extent Bailey Zappe, Easton Stick, Nick Mullens, Gardner Minshew. I think we should take a dart throw. Buuuuuttttt…we should mitigate the risk slightly by pushing the dart throw down the board somewhat. I’m probably not doing it in the 1st round outside of Jayden Daniels.
So let’s up our inventory, up our darts. I’ve got one trade in mind sending the #13 pick to Arizona for #17 and #81. And then I will flip #17 to Cincinnati for #23 and #87. We’ll go into our first pick looking like this:
#1.23, #2.51, #3.75, #3.81, #3.87, #4.114, #5.147, #6.188, #7.229
#1.23 – OC, Duke, Graham Barton
The Seahawks really need to invest in the Center position. They have for years. The ongoing instability there since Max Unger was traded away is potentially one of the lowkey biggest reasons Seattle has not contended since. Evan Brown will be a free agent, and the team hasn’t seem confident in 2023 5th-rounder Olu Oluwatimi.
I don’t love the strength of this class of interior OL. I think it’s much stronger at OT. But that can be a way to find value: moving OT to guard or center. Barton has been playing LT for Duke, and the reports are that his short arms will force him inside. Maybe that’s guard, but I like his intelligence to be a cornerstone at center.
There’s an argument to be made about positional value of centers in the 1st round, or about Seattle never drafting one this early. Some of that should be put aside after they broke trend last year to draft a Corner in the first round for the first time in this regime. And then they picked a WR in the 1st for the first time. If they are really hunting best player available, I think this is the move, with backup plan the Minnesota safety, Tyler Nubin.
#2.51 – LB, NC State, Payton Wilson
Seattle really needs to come out of this draft with a stud linebacker. Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks are both currently free agents at the end of the season. I’d re-sign Brooks at minimum, and might do another one-year deal for Bobby, but I’m really trying to find the next 10-year guy for the middle of the defense.
I’ve got a handful of LB I’m interested in, with Cedric Gray, Michael Barrett near the top, but Wilson checks the most boxes. He’s a big dude at 6’4″/238lbs, he’s a team captain, he’s got great marks for athleticism, he’s extremely productive including top 10 in the country in total tackles and TFL, plus 6.0 sacks, 10 hurries, 3 INT, 6 PBU, 1 FF.
The only downside is potential medical redflag, and possibly him not being available this late after the Combine.
#3.75 – DT, Ohio State, Tyleik Williams
Seattle sort of showed their hand that they wanted improvement from their IDL when they invested a 2nd round pick in a half-year rental for Leonard Williams. It wouldn’t surprise me if they drafted someone at DT in the 1st round. I’m trying to play a bit more strategy and find some hidden gems. I’ve done a LOT of vetting of this class of DT. I like Jer’zhan Newton and T’vondre Sweat if you want to invest that much. There’s a guy out of UMass named Billy Wooden if you really want to take a late flyer. But, in the middle of the draft, I think you look at Auburn’s Marcus Harris and Tyleik Williams.
Williams is 6’2″/290lbs, with 10.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and 5 PBU this year. I think his floor is Jarran Reed.
#3.81 – OG, Michigan, Zak Zinter
This is a tricky one. Zinter is a two-time winner of the team OL Joe Moore Award, he’s a 2023 first team All-American, and he’s a 6’6″/322lb team captain for the national title contending Michigan team. But he suffered a pretty gruesome broken leg a few weeks ago when he got rolled up on vs Ohio State. This might end up similar to Trey Smith falling to the 6th round in 2021. Personally, I’m not letting him fall. This guy is a culture-setter.
Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes are both gonna be free agents. Between 2023 picks Oluwatimi and Bradford, and 2024 “picks” Barton and Zinter we have four bodies to fill three starting jobs for 2024.
#3.87 – QB, Tennessee, Joe Milton III
Having “acquired” Hendon Hooker earlier via trade; I’m now free to take a bit more of a risk on a draft QB. And how fun would it be to reunite Hendon with his former teammate at Tennessee, Joe Milton?
I’ve been curious since about this time last year at how the media would treat the huge-armed Milton in the same offense that people gave a ton of shit to Hooker for playing in. Milton has objectively performed much worse than Hooker in the same scheme, and really nobody is overrating him just based on his physical traits. Hooker was the #2 rated passer in college last year behind CJ Stroud at 175.51…Milton this year is closer to #40 at 147.27. Hooker was 27 TD, 2 INT over 329 attempts, Milton is 20 TD, 5 INT in 354 attempts. Hooker ran for 430 yards, 4.13 ypc, 5 TD, Milton ran for 299 yards, 3.83 ypc, 7 TD.
If Milton can learn to throttle down his arm a bit, there are enough other traits here to interest me, and it would be very fun to watch him develop. I could see a Dak Prescott trajectory. Well worth the 3rd round investment on a 6’5″/235lb leopard tank.
#4.114 – DS, Wake Forest, Malik Mustapha
Safety is a spot that Seattle really needs to re-evaluate this offseason. They’re currently paying a ton of money to their starting duo that are both having the worst years of their careers. Julian Love seems like an okay piece to keep on the roster, but you don’t want him to be a focal point. I don’t know what the future would be for Coby Bryant if he’s now a safety. Jerrick Reed is currently post-op of a knee surgery, and never really got much play before he got hurt.
I’d be pretty okay with Seattle spending a high pick on Tyler Nubin, who I like as a centerfield, ball-hawking deep safety. And I like Mustapha when he’s in the box coming downhill. That might be a sick combo. I didn’t do that pairing in this mock, but it was highly considered.
Mustapha is a 5’11″/207lb technician with 80 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBU, 1 FF for the year. Should be a good athletic tester, too.
#5.147 – DL, Alabama, Justin Eboigbe
This is probably a pipe dream to get an Alabama DL this late, but I haven’t seen Eboigbe ranked very highly to this point. I’d like to get Seattle a replacement for free agent Darrell Taylor, and there is some good volume/depth at that profile in guys like Mohamed Kamara, Nelson Ceaser, Jasheen Davis, but I just didn’t have enough picks. Instead, I’m going to give them another shot at the Mike Morris profile. Morris is 6’6″/292lbs, Eboigbe is 6’5″/292lbs. This year Eboigbe posted 11.5 TFL, 7.0 sacks, and 4 hurries.
Alabama uses him all over the line, so you can get some outside reps from him. But he also has enough sand in his pants to play the run inside.
#6.188 – DS, Ohio State, Josh Proctor
I don’t know that Proctor is the centerfield counterpoint to Mustapha that I’d like to find, but he’s a good player and great value this late. He’s 6’2″/205lbs with 41 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1 INT, 8 PBU this year. And he packs a punch.
#7.229 – RB, South Dakota State, Isaiah Davis
Davis is a 6’1″/220lb running back that has run for almost 1500 yards and 17 TD this year for the Jackrabbits while averaging almost 7.00 ypc. With Deejay Dallas a free agent after the year and Kenny Mcintosh still a huge question mark; it feels appropriate to take a late-round flyer RB.
The jump-cuts for a back this size are very intriguing.
I think my mock is short on a tightend with the turnover coming at the position, but I really don’t like this class. Plus, Seattle doesn’t seem to know how to use them. Maybe that’s a Geno problem, cause even Russell with his height seemed to find ways to use them more. Regardless, I just preferred to go other directions.
After spending 1st round picks on CB and WR last year; I passed on those spots this year, even though both classes are pretty nice throughout the draft. People thought we didn’t need a RB last year when they took Charbonnet, but that’s turned out to be a pretty nice pick. I won’t begrudge a BPA pick if one happens again this year.
Seattle Seamocks 