By Jared Stanger
We’re less than a week before the 2023 MLB Draft, with night one coming to Lumen Field in our very own Seattle next Sunday, July 9. Night one will consist of the first two rounds, followed by rounds 3-10 on Monday, and finishing with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday the 11th. The Mariners have one of the larger bonus pools in the league stemming from their awarding of two bonus first round picks.
The recent media buzz, and a bit of insight from M’s director of amateur scouting, Scott Hunter, himself; it very much feels like Seattle will attack the first round by targeting high school hitters. Second to HS bats will be College bats as the first round isn’t strong in pitching. It seems like the current prevailing buzz is that there’s going to be a run on college bats before the M’s will be on the clock. This will probably play directly in to Seattle’s favor as they want to land some difference-making youth.
1.22 – SS, Gulliver Prep HS, George Lombard Jr
Most draft boards are just chock full of high school shortstops from about 20-40 overall. It’s not a question of ‘IF’ Seattle drafts one…it’s a question of ‘how many?’ and ‘which?’ My guess is that Seattle is more likely to take someone like Colt Emerson, Sammy Stafura, or Walker Martin, but I prefer Lombard.
Lombard is a 6’3″/190lb MLB legacy shortstop with above average tools across the board. He’s got a college commitment to Vanderbilt, which I’m guessing will make him on the tougher side of signing, but slot here is $3.4mill and I would offer him the full-slot.
1.29 – C, Huntington Beach HS, Raffaele Velazquez
This pick should probably be another prep shortstop or centerfielder, but I just think the opportunity to grab a lefty-hitting catcher with high school homerun derby winning power is too good to pass up.
Velazquez is a 6’3″/215lb backstop that isn’t the fleetest of foot, but he’s got a decent arm and good pop-times. He’s also spent time at 1B, and the bat would probably carry him there, too, with present exit velocities already hitting 109mph. He’s committed to ASU, and slot bonus here is $2.8mill.
1.30 – 3B, Aquinas HS, Eric Bitonti
I’d kinda like to get a college bat here like a Brayden Taylor, Brock Wilken, Nolan Schanuel, but a) it feels like those names are now likely to come off the board between 10-25, b) based on Scott Hunter’s comments; it doesn’t sound like Seattle will try to get cute in the first round and reach on a player in order to underslot him and use the savings later on.
There’s some risk in drafting three consecutive high school players as they can sometimes demand more in signing bonus with the threat of going to college looming around them, but historically most prep players drafted in the first will sign. So it’s not implausible the M’s go this route.
Bitonti is a 6’5″/218lb kid…he’s literally 17 years old until November…that just oozes upside. He’s been playing shortstop for his highschool, but he’s got the power and arm strength to make a smooth transition to third base. He’s got one of my favorite swings in this HS class. Eric is committed to Oregon and bonus for #30 is $2.7mill. This is a bit of a reach pick, so you may be able to sign him for a little underslot, but in my mock I’m budgeting to give him the full slot.
2.57 – LHP, Ohio State, Isaiah Coupet
Seattle has a metric in-house that they call something along the lines of the “shove” metric. I’ve been tinkering with my own version of this idea for a few years. From this class, Isaiah Coupet had one of the higher scores for a lefthander. If I was being stricter to the pure algorithm this pick would be Wake Forest LHP Sean Sullivan, but when I cross reference with the tape I just preferred Coup.
Coupet is a 6’1″/190lb southpaw that has similar size and shove score to recent 2nd-round lefties Andrew Abbott and Logan Allen. Abbott was drafted out of UVA in 2021 with the #53 overall pick for $1.3mill, and Allen was drafted #56 overall in 2020 for $1.125mill. Slot for #57 this year is $1.4mill, but I’m gonna try to get Coupet here, earlier than his 3rd-4th round projection, for $1.2mill.
3.92 – RHP, Charlotte, Wyatt Hudepohl
In his recent, pre-draft media huddle; Scott Hunter talked about the success Seattle has had drafting pitching from mid-major college programs like Elon (Kirby), Stetson (Gilbert), Cal Poly (Woo); and Hudepohl would be looking to continue that pattern.
The former Kentucky transfer; Wyatt has great size at 6’4″/220lbs, and though present fastball is mostly in the 93mph zone, his curveball is pretty special. He has eligibility remaining, so this won’t be an underslot guy. #92 is scheduled for a bonus of $736,400.
I’d also be pretty interested lefty-hitting Michigan State 1B Brock Vradenburg here.
4.124 – LHP, Dunedin HS, Trey Beard
Personally, I don’t trust Seattle to scout HS pitchers. I don’t know what they’re doing to pick the guys they do. I don’t know why it fails so often when the same scouting group evaluates college pitchers quite well. So I seriously doubt the M’s will come to the same conclusion on Trey Beard that I have. But this is a mock of what I would do, not what I think Seattle will do.
Trey Beard already has a great pitcher’s frame at 6’3″/190lbs, but some room to grow. His current repertoire isn’t that of a power pitcher, but he does show some promising scores on his pitch analytics. He’s a different TYPE of pitcher than Mariners’ 2022 fourth round pick Ashton Izzi, but the signing bonus negotiation could go similarly. Izzi was picked at #126 overall and signed for overslot at $1.1mill.
Slot for #124 is $531,300 and I’m trying to get Beard signed for $1mill even. His college commitment is to FAU.
5.160 – 2B/SS, North Kentucky, Noah Fisher
This will be the first true senior-signing of this mock. Noah Fisher is a 6’0″/195lb middle-infielder coming from Northern Kentucky who is already 23 years old. But he hit .343/.502/1.218 this spring with 19 homeruns and almost a 20% walk rate.
Seattle will oftentimes do senior-sign deals of, like, $20k in the 5th-10th rounds, but I’m not a huge fan of that. I’m budgeting to give Fisher $125k, which still saves you $249,400 towards other signings.
6.187 – RHP, Bryant, Coleman Picard
Coleman Picard is another mid-major RHP that fits recent Seattle profile. Listed at 6’2″/185lbs with a fastball currently reaching 95mph and a very good curve. The M’s pulled Bryan Woo out of the 6th round in 2021, so here’s to hoping they can do it again.
7.217 – OF, P27 Academy, Alfonsin Rosario
After a few picks going to the pitching side, I’m coming back to HS bats with Alfonsin Rosario. He’s listed at 6’2″/215lbs, and though he’s on the older side of high school players, that could probably also lower his signing price. His college commitment is only to a junior college, which may signal that he’s eager to sign now, or certainly to be eligible again immediately next year.
Alfonsin has a pretty traditional right field profile with one of the best OF arms in the class, and some high-end exit velocity scores.
8.247 – 1B, Morehead State, Jackson Feltner
Prior to the 2022 MLB Draft I started working on a hitting metric to help identify players I thought Seattle might be interested in. I ran the same study this year, but due to the theory that the M’s are gonna be focusing on high school hitters early; we missed out on most of the first tier of scorers in the ‘rake’ metric. I was able to fit in a few players that scored in the second tier across this mock, but they are basically all smaller school guys. But, technically, Tyler Locklear was a smaller school guy last year and they drafted him.
Jackson Feltner was one of these second tier guys. He’s 6’3″/220lbs and hit .348/.477/1.130 with 14 HR, and 32 XBH in 56 games this year. He was also a promising performer at the recent MLB Combine where he posted a max exit velocity of 110.6mph. And, though they weren’t published, I bet he would have scored high in bat-speed.
9.277 – RHP, Utah Valley, Casey Anderson
Casey Anderson is a 6’4″/180lb righthander that has bounced around the college game for a few years now. He will be 23 years old in August, so he could be another possibility for a senior sign, underslot pick, but with my personal philosophy; I would only save about $50k here.
Anderson split time pretty evenly between starting and relieving for Utah Valley last year across 15 appearances, 8 starts. In a summer-league game last week, his fastball was clocked up to 96.6mph, and he has a plus slider. This combo may make him a fast mover in the bullpen.
10.307 – 3B, Seminole State JC, Xavier Casserilla
There are so many ways to look for players in a baseball draft. This year, I happen to really like a lot of players that were at junior colleges this spring. Many of them have college commitments to D1 schools for 2024, which could be legit, but also could be posturing for draft leverage.
But here’s the thing…with the transfer portal in its current form, one could move from one school to another basically at any time. If a player is at a 4-year school; they can be drafted from that school after three years (less if they are over 21 years old). If you spend a year at a 4-year school, then transfer to JUCO; you can be drafted after your second overall year in college. That’s basically the only reason you transfer down to JUCO. If you’re okay waiting three years to be eligible; you can transfer from one 4-year to a different 4-year.
This is the situation Casserilla is in. He transferred from Wichita State down to JUCO between 2022 to 2023. So, although he is currently committed to power five school Oklahoma State for 2024, I deduce he will want to sign if drafted. This year he hit .378/.481/1.262 with 24 HR, 86 RBI in 64 games.
11.337 – 2B, Nesbit HS, Colton Coates
This is an interesting one. Colton Coates is a 6’1″/180lb high school switch-hitting utility infielder. But thanks to one of the newer developments in amateur baseball scouting…the MLB Draft League…Colton is currently playing against primarily college players in said league. And he’s kinda raking.
As an 18 year old in the MLBDL; Colton is hitting .338/.444/.823 with 3 doubles, 13 RBI, 4 SB, 15 BB, 12 SO in 20 games. He has a commitment to Louisiana Tech, but his placement in a thing called “Draft League” is giving me an intuition that he will sign.
12.367 – LHP, Southern Idaho, Josh Trentadue
Josh Trentadue is a 6’2″/185lb lefty that posted one of the, arguably, top 5 seasons of all JUCO pitchers in 2023. Across 66.1 IP, 12 starts he posted 2.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16.01 SO/9, and 6.78 H/9. In a recent bullpen his fastball was up to 94mph.
13.397 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece
Unlike a number of Seattle-centric mock drafts I’ve seen recently; I don’t and won’t have Seattle drafting outfielders in the early rounds. In 2022 the earliest OF they drafted was Bill Knight in the 10th. In 2021 it was Colin Davis in the 7th. In the 2020 covid draft it was Zach Deloach in the 2nd. In 2019 it was a guy named Antoine Mistico in the 12th.
Because of some combination of the young talent they have in the OF on the major league club, the relative ease with which there is acquiring OF’er via trade, or the ability to build OF from converted IF; it’s historically not a huge urgency to draft them.
Ryley Preece is kind of a cool profile at 5’11″/170lbs, switch-hitter with exactly 21 HR and 21 SB this year in 56 games, plus a slash of .335/.454/1.192. Limited tape I could find also suggests a solid defender. It’d be an interesting target as developmental 4th-outfielder.
14.427 – 2B, UConn, David Smith
David Smith is a name I came across when I was pointedly trying to add some speed to my mock draft. He’s a 5’10″/190lb switch-hitter who primarily plays 2B, but can also play OF, and in 2023 he was a UConn team captain who stole 39 bases in 44 tries. Plus he hit .304/.429/.893 with 19 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homeruns.
There are a few guys in this mock that are included with thoughts on how they will contribute to the locker room, and Smith is one.
15.457 – RHP, Florida SW, Marty Gair
In 2021 Seattle drafted a RHP out of junior college in the 14th round named Andrew Moore who was 6’5″ and pulling some pretty serious heat. Marty Gair is a JUCO righty listed at 6’6″, only 20 years old, and rocking it up to 98mph this year.
He made 9 appearances this year…all as starter…and you could see his velo literally blossoming during the season: 94mph in January, 96mph in February, and 98 mph by March. With a move to the ‘pen, you have to wonder if those numbers might tick up a bit more, and hopefully his 5.50 BB/9 will tick down.
16.487 – C, Indiana State, Grant Magill
Every draft you probably want to come out of your 20 or so picks with a couple standard things: one would be a couple shortstops, one would be a couple catchers. Although they don’t really get credit for it…basically because the hit tool(s) often lag behind…the M’s have put together a nice collection of catchers in their farm system. Harry Ford is the only catcher on their top 30 prospects, but names like Jake Anchia (37% caught stealing), Matt Scheffler (31% CS), Tatem Levins (30% CS), German Guilarte (32% CS), Connor Charping (50% CS in small sample) are all quality receivers.
So that factors into my search for draft catchers. The Gold Glove awards gives out annual honors to one catcher at each level of college, and this year the D2 winner Tyler Boggs threw out 44% of attempted basestealers, and the D1 Gold Glove’r Grant Magill threw out 47%.
I’m drafting Magill for his glove, and for his leadership (this guy has future manager written all over him). Boggs might be the better pick for some upside in his bat (.347/.420/.849).
17.517 – RHP, Davidson, Bennett Flynn
Bennett Flynn is a 6’1″/175lb righthanded reliever that I’ve had my eye on for a couple years. He’s consistently posted strikeout numbers over 13.0 per nine. He was especially effective in 2022 when he finished the year with a 1.41 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and a miniscule 4.7 H/9.
18.547 – SS, Indiana, Phillip Glasser
As I’ve talked about with a few of these later-round draftpicks; Phillip Glasser is someone that I’m putting higher value on for his leadership. I think it’s an important counterpoint to balance out the number of high school players we’re adding.
Glasser is a 6’0″/200lb lefty-hitting senior shortstop that hit .357/.444/.959 with 7 HR, 19 doubles, and 14 SB this year.
19.577 – LHP, UNLV, Jack Sellinger
Jack Sellinger is a 6’3″/210lb lefty reliever that struck out 14.8/nine across 39.0 innings this year. He’ll be 24 years old in November, but this is the kind of player you get in the 19th round.
20.607 – 3B, Delaware State, Trey Paige
Trey Paige is a 6’0″/215lb true utility type that hits lefthanded and can play almost every position on defense. Across his college career, Paige has played 3 games at 1B, 36 games at 2B, 51 games at 3B, 52 games at SS, 2 games in RF, 10 games in CF, and 28 games in LF. He hit .372/.468/1.159 this year with 15 doubles, 14 homeruns, 10 stolen base in 48 games.
In addition to the aforementioned, highly crafted draftees; I thought I would give some names that I’m also interested in, but that didn’t fit in the over-arching structure.
SS/CF Nazzan Zanetello – high school player with potential for 5 tools, that probably requires a top 30 pick for Seattle.
RHP Tanner Witt – Texas starter would have been VERY high on my list in 2022 before he needed Tommy John surgery. Tough to place his value now after a 10.97 ERA in his first 10 innings back from rehab.
SS Josh Rivera – After some fresh helium post- college world series; I found it tough to justify taking Rivera in the 2nd round, but I really like the player.
RHP Seth Keener – One of the higher scorers in my shove metric, I’d be fine if Seattle drafted Keener. His shove score was VERY similar to Coupet and I simply gave favoritism to the rarer lefty starter.
C Alberto Rios – Stanford moved him off of catcher which probably muddled his evaluation, but the bat was 2nd tier in my rake study.
1B Brock Vradenburg – An interesting name to track as he hit .400 in the regular season with quality plate discipline. He didn’t show a ton of power (13 HR in 55 games), but then at the MLB Combine he had top-end exit velocities and homer distance. The power might be coming and soon.
LHP Wil Libbert – There’s something to this HS lefty.
RHP Jackson Baumeister – At one point Baumeister was getting 2nd round projection, which was too expensive for his shove score compared to other pitchers. But in MLB’s most-recent rankings he was in the 5th round. I’d be psyched to get him even in the 4th.
RHP Cade Denton – probably the second-best reliever in this draft behind Andrew Walters; I just have moved away from drafting relievers in the top 10 rounds as a philosophy, and Denton might cost a 6th.
3B Daniel Cuvet – Huge HS power bat that was simply redundant after drafting Bitonti and Rosario. But call him first alternate.
RHP Gavin Adams – Interesting JUCO arm that probably ends up in the bullpen. Some control issues, but fastball touching 99mph. I’d be interested on day three.
3B Nick Lorusso – This is a deep crop of 3B, but Lorusso’s 26 HR, 105 RBI season has to keep him on the shortlist if the price is right.
2B Quinn McDaniel – Probably the most power amongst 2B players. Did very well on rake metric.
Seattle Seamocks 