Month: July 2023

2023 Instant MLB Draft Redux

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re two weeks out from the 2023 MLB Draft…teams have until Tuesday to sign any remaining unsigned draftpicks…so we already have signing bonus figures on the majority of this class. This means we can create an instant draft redux. This is something I first tried last year. There are basically only two rules: 1) the player had to have been on the board at the respective Mariner draft pick, 2) the signing bonus amount the players actually signed for must collectively fit under Seattle’s available draft pool = $13,170,900.

This is what last year’s redux looks like in 2023 performance:

1.21 – Cole Young .278/.407/.871, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 19 SB, #6 in class for total bases.

#2.58 – Tyler Locklear .311/.419/.992, 11 HR, 37 RBI, 7×7 SB in 48 games before breaking hand on HBP. #8 in entire class in OPS.

#2.74 – Andrew Taylor 4.00 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 13.2 SO/9, 2.93 SO/BB.

#4.126 – Hunter Patteson 4.42 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 11.3 SO/9, 7.67 SO/BB coming back from Tommy John surgery.

#5.156 – Caden Dana 3.56 ERA, 1.185 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9, 2.97 SO/BB.

#6.186 – Tyler Guilfoil 2.31 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 13.3 SO/9, 4.06 SO/BB.

#7.216 – Hogan Windish .256/.377/.831, 10 HR, 52 RBI, tied for #29 in class in HR.

#8.246 – Tatem Levins .265/.350/.806, 6 HR, 35 RBI.

#9.276 – Brett Gillis 0.00 ERA, 0.500, 13.5 SO/9 in only 2.0 IP before season ending injury.

#10.306 – Andrew Cossetti .300/.431/.982, 10 HR, 46 RBI. #11 in class in season OPS.

#11.336 – Chris Newell .270/.379/.926, 20 HR, 58 RBI, 15 SB. #3 in class in HR and total bases.

#12.366 – Brooks Baldwin .234/.324/.746, 8 HR, 36 RBI, 12 SB.

#13.396 – Ben Sears 2.49 ERA, 0.947 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, 7.14 SO/BB, 7 saves. #6 in class in saves.

#14.426 – Sammy Natera 4.91 ERA, 1.491 WHIP, 11.6 SO/9, 2.15 SO/BB.

#15.456 – Trey Braithwaite *has not played.

#16.486 – Luke Franzoni *has not played.

#17.516 – Stefan Raeth 4.20 ERA, 1.567 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9, 1.95 SO/BB.

#18.546 – Duncan Davitt 5.05 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9, 3.19 SO/BB.

#19.576 – Bryson Worrell .200/.311/.694, 6 HR, 15 SB.

#20.606 – Josh Zamora .246/.303/.680, 5 HR.

So this group yielded three of the top 20 players by OPS from the entire class. 7 of 9 pitchers have posted over 11.0 SO/9 rates. I think that’s a pretty damn promising group thus far.

For the 2023 version of the redux; I’m trying to incorporate as close to parallel drafts to the Mariners actual draft. This means: same ratio of bats to pitchers, same number of high school to college, close to the same positional breakdown, close to same ratio of left to right handedness. And here’s what I came up with:

1.22 (#26 real) – SS, George Lombard, $3.3mill

Colt Emerson is easily my least-favorite pick in this class, and it pisses me off that they paid $3.8mill for him. I don’t think the test of time is going to be kind to that pick. Lombard rates better than Emerson (and fellow prep SS pick Tai Peete) in all measurable categories, and my hunch is that Seattle overlooked him simply because they were pre-determined to force lefthanded bats early. Lombard was on the younger side of this class as a guy that only turned 18 in June…which is also an element Seattle seemed focused on. Lombard, to me, was a better version of Tai Peete with a better chance to stick at short.

Lombard’s bonus of $3.3mill would be underslot the 22nd pick value of $3.5mill, whereas Emerson was overslot.

1.29 (#29 real) – OF, Jonny Farmelo, $3.2mill

Easily my favorite of the Mariners’ high school picks; Farmelo gets to stay. He’s a premium athlete that should stay in centerfield, and I really like the smooth lefty swing. If he can add power as he fills out physically…this will be a nice pick.

1.30 (#37 real) – SS, Kevin McGonigle, $2.85mill

This was probably the toughest pick to make. There were quite a few high school bats that were available here, and signed for reasonable bonus money. Colin Houck was ranked #12 and fell to #32 where he signed for only $2.75mill. Walker Martin was ranked #30 and fell to #52, but I never really loved his defense. Nazzan Zanetello felt very similar to M’s 2nd round pick Aidan Smith in his potential for five tools, but Nazzan actually had better athleticism scores in high school.

In an effort to keep the same ratio of lefthanded hitting high school bats; I’m passing on Houck and Zanetello. McGonigle, to me, feels like a better version of what Seattle thinks Emerson is. Lefty, high baseball IQ, high exit velocities, elite plate discipline, probably ends up at 2B.

In terms of dollars…Tai Peete signed for slightly underslot from the $2.73mill assigned amount, and McGonigle is slightly overslot.

2.57 (#87 real) – 3B, Eric Bitonti, $1.75mill

It doesn’t really make sense to me that Seattle drafted #78 ranked Aidan Smith in the 4th round at #124 only to pay him overslot $1.2mill. What if he was drafted closer to where he was ranked? At the same time, they made a mulit-round reach to draft Ben Williamson in the 2nd. Why? Just draft the guys closest to where they’re valued.

Bitonti checks the boxes Seattle seemed to value in age (2nd youngest player in the entire draft), he’s lefthanded, and his future position is probably 3rd base which Seattle drafted three of total.

Slot here is $1.44mill, so Bitonti is overslot and costs more than Aidan Smith did, but we saved a bunch pivoting off Emerson to Lombard, so we’re still in pretty comparable space overall.

3.92 (123 real) – RHP, Wyatt Hudepohl, $500k

I’m replacing the twice-TJ’d Teddy McGraw with a healthy Hudepohl. Spoiler alert: I won’t be keeping much of the pitching that Seattle drafted. I did the same thing last year. Seattle has pivoted from what has worked for them for years to identify quality college pitchers. My guess is that they are miscrediting the reasons they think those guys worked to the wrong traits. I’d expect we see a big gap in the quality of pitching in the system in 2025.

Anyways…Hudepohl falls more in line with a pitcher Seattle would have drafted between 2018-2021. I’m not changing my methodology.

4.124 (169 real) – RHP, Coleman Picard, $343k

In theory, Picard could be the pick at #160 in the 5th. I’m putting him here simply by following the money. The thought behind both Hudepohl and Picard is: Bryan Woo. Mid-major righty drafted on day 2 with some legit present stuff, and upside for more.

5.160 (160 real) – 2B, Brock Rodden, $200k

For the second consecutive year, Seattle has done really interesting work drafting college bats. Last year it was guys like Locklear, Windish, Levins. This year I’d rank Ben Williamson, Rodden, Schreck, Pagliarini in that group. I actually would have loved to get Williamson in a later round than the 2nd, but by rules of this exercise; I can’t project him available past his actual draft location.

Rodden is the exact type of player I was targeting in the 5th round in my mocks before the draft as a senior-sign middle infielder, and so it makes sense to keep him where he was.

6.187 (240 real) – RHP, Josh Bostick, $397k

This was the last draftpick spot for me to fill. I really just didn’t like anyone the league drafted in the 6th-7th round range. So, again, I followed the money. Bostick was drafted in the 8th round, but he signed for 5th round money. He’s one of a number of promising JUCO pitchers in this class. Some of those guys signed, some of them opted for fulfilling their transfer commitments to D1 schools.

Bostick was up to 98mph this summer on the Cape with a four-pitch mix and over 15.00 SO/9 in the spring.

7.217 (235 real) – 1B, Jackson Feltner, $175k

Feltner is a bit of an audible as Seattle didn’t draft any 1B, but they did sign one in UDFA. Feltner hit .348/.477/1.130 with 14 HR in 56 games, and scored very well in my rake score.

8.247 (276 real) – 3B, Nick Lorusso, $50k

This is crazy. Lorusso hit .379/.446/1.211 with 26 HR, and an insane 105 RBI in his 61 game season. He was a senior so there was always probability that he would be underdrafted, and almost 100% certainty he’d be underslotted, but $50k is an absolute steal.

9.277 (277 real) – OF, RJ Schreck, $75k

I probably didn’t give outfield enough attention before the draft, but once Seattle drafted Schreck I ran him through my rake score metric, and he scored really comparable to 1st round pick Chase Davis. So we’re keeping him right where he was.

10.307 (325 real) – RHP, Casey Anderson, $150k

It’s a little bit tough this year to identify which guys Seattle drafted to pitch in starting roles, and which will immediately be relievers.

Teddy McGraw – 12 starts, 34 appearances
Brody Hopkins – 12 starts, 17 appearances
Ty Cummings – 3 starts, 74 appearances
Ryan Hawks – 15 starts, 47 appearances
Brandyn Garcia – 19 starts, 51 appearances
Logan Evans – 23 starts, 39 appearances
Elijah Dale – 0 starts, 29 appearances
Ernie Day – 15 starts, 21 appearances
Daniel Ouderkirk – 11 starts, 35 appearances
Will Watson – 5 starts, 39 appearances

So I’m kinda just targeting 5 starters, 5 relievers. I’m considering Anderson a starter at 6’4″/180lbs with a 3.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 11.74 SO/9 and 3.60 SO/BB.

At this point we’ve completed 10 rounds and we can do an accounting recap. The M’s bonus pool was $13,170,900. The M’s actually spent $12,865,500 leaving $305,400 in surplus. This re-mock came to a total of $12,990,500…surplus of $180,400. So that gives us some flexability in rounds 11-20.

11.337 (411 real) – LHP, Josh Trentadue, $330k

In a fascinating coincidence, Trentadue and Casey Anderson both came through the College of Southern Idaho in 2022. In 2023, Trentadue was still at Southern Idaho where he posted 2.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16.01 SO/9, and 4.92 SO/BB. He’s 6’2″/185lbs and has a fastball at 94mph from the southpaw side.

Josh was a starter this year and that’s where I will keep him for now. Josh has officially signed with Boston, but his bonus amount has not been announced. He can sign for $150k without counting against the bonus pool, but Seattle also has a surplus of $180,400. So that’s where I’m getting the $330,000 figure.

12.367 (397 real) – RHP, Elijah Dale, $125k

It’s still not entirely clear why Seattle changed how they scout college pitching. I have a couple guesses, but it will take some time to see them develop (or not develop). But Elijah Dale is a guy that they probably would have identified with the old system. So I’m keeping him in the fold.

13.397 (413 real) – LHP, Jack Sellinger, $100k

For as much as it seems Seattle targeted drafting lefthanded hitters; they only drafted one lefthanded pitcher. Brandyn Garcia who was exclusively a reliever this year at Texas A&M. Garcia had decent numbers, but Sellinger’s numbers are better in my pitching “shove” metric, so he’s a slight upgrade in my system.

14.427 (427 real) – RHP, Ernie Day, $150k

As I looked at my 2022 draft redux; it didn’t escape me that I really had nothing to show past round #15. Maybe that’s a failing on my part, or maybe it’s just emblematic that there isn’t generally much MLB talent that falls through the cracks this late. With that in mind; I left a lot of these late round picks alone. There’s simultaneously indifference to the guys Seattle actually drafted, and no meaningful confidence in my own alternatives.

Day has great size at 6’4″/225lbs, no particularly standout stats other than almost 12.00 SO/9, but his present fastball touches 96mph, and we’ll see.

15.457 (457 real) – OF, Carson Jones, $150k

As with Ernie Day; I have no particular reason for or against keeping Jones. My mock is a little light on outfielders, and he hits lefty with decent power and on-base skill so I’ll keep him in the mix.

16.487 (515 real) – UT, Trey Paige, $150k

I don’t dislike the M’s real 16th round pick of Caleb Cali. He’s sort of 3rd tier of my rake score. But Trey Paige is 2nd tier. Paige is a 6’0″/215lb athlete who hits lefty, and is a pretty legit utility defender. Trey has played college games at: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF and within that mix the highest concentrations at SS, 3B, and LF. His bat hit to the tune of .372/.468/1.159 with 14 HR and 53 RBI in 48 games this year.

17.517 (UDFA) – C, Grant Magill, $100k

Really, the only college bat Seattle drafted that didn’t make sense to me was the catcher they picked, Jacob Sharp. He just doesn’t appear to have any outstanding trait. And, unfortunately, there aren’t many catchers on the board with outstanding bats. So I pivot to the college catcher that is, at least, a defensive standout.

Magill is a terrific catch-and-throw receiver with great leadership.

18.547 (578 real) – RHP, Josh Harlow, $100k

Harlow is mostly just a shot in the dark. He’s listed 6’3″/215lb righty that has primarily started in his college career. He only made 7 appearances last year so there may be an injury. But he posted good numbers when he did play: 2.15 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.74 SO/9, and 4.38 SO/BB.

19.577 (577 real) – 3B, Charlie Pagliarini, $100k

Pagliarini was another bat from my study that profiled as 2nd tier. So, in theory, he may be the best value in the M’s class. He’s 6’2″/210lbs and hit .399/.528/1.379 with 24 HR, 97 RBI, and 14 SB in 55 games.

20.607 (UDFA) – RHP, Bennett Flynn, $100k

The M’s real 20th round pick is the only player they haven’t signed (at time of publishing). Which means he isn’t an option to keep. Flynn went undrafted, so I’m just gonna offer him $100k, which seems common in this late rounds. Flynn in 2023 posted 3.36 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 13.10 SO/9.

Mariners July Mock

/ seattleseamocks

By Jared Stanger

We’re less than a week before the 2023 MLB Draft, with night one coming to Lumen Field in our very own Seattle next Sunday, July 9. Night one will consist of the first two rounds, followed by rounds 3-10 on Monday, and finishing with rounds 11-20 on Tuesday the 11th. The Mariners have one of the larger bonus pools in the league stemming from their awarding of two bonus first round picks.

The recent media buzz, and a bit of insight from M’s director of amateur scouting, Scott Hunter, himself; it very much feels like Seattle will attack the first round by targeting high school hitters. Second to HS bats will be College bats as the first round isn’t strong in pitching. It seems like the current prevailing buzz is that there’s going to be a run on college bats before the M’s will be on the clock. This will probably play directly in to Seattle’s favor as they want to land some difference-making youth.

1.22 – SS, Gulliver Prep HS, George Lombard Jr

Most draft boards are just chock full of high school shortstops from about 20-40 overall. It’s not a question of ‘IF’ Seattle drafts one…it’s a question of ‘how many?’ and ‘which?’ My guess is that Seattle is more likely to take someone like Colt Emerson, Sammy Stafura, or Walker Martin, but I prefer Lombard.

Lombard is a 6’3″/190lb MLB legacy shortstop with above average tools across the board. He’s got a college commitment to Vanderbilt, which I’m guessing will make him on the tougher side of signing, but slot here is $3.4mill and I would offer him the full-slot.

1.29 – C, Huntington Beach HS, Raffaele Velazquez

This pick should probably be another prep shortstop or centerfielder, but I just think the opportunity to grab a lefty-hitting catcher with high school homerun derby winning power is too good to pass up.

Velazquez is a 6’3″/215lb backstop that isn’t the fleetest of foot, but he’s got a decent arm and good pop-times. He’s also spent time at 1B, and the bat would probably carry him there, too, with present exit velocities already hitting 109mph. He’s committed to ASU, and slot bonus here is $2.8mill.

1.30 – 3B, Aquinas HS, Eric Bitonti

I’d kinda like to get a college bat here like a Brayden Taylor, Brock Wilken, Nolan Schanuel, but a) it feels like those names are now likely to come off the board between 10-25, b) based on Scott Hunter’s comments; it doesn’t sound like Seattle will try to get cute in the first round and reach on a player in order to underslot him and use the savings later on.

There’s some risk in drafting three consecutive high school players as they can sometimes demand more in signing bonus with the threat of going to college looming around them, but historically most prep players drafted in the first will sign. So it’s not implausible the M’s go this route.

Bitonti is a 6’5″/218lb kid…he’s literally 17 years old until November…that just oozes upside. He’s been playing shortstop for his highschool, but he’s got the power and arm strength to make a smooth transition to third base. He’s got one of my favorite swings in this HS class. Eric is committed to Oregon and bonus for #30 is $2.7mill. This is a bit of a reach pick, so you may be able to sign him for a little underslot, but in my mock I’m budgeting to give him the full slot.

2.57 – LHP, Ohio State, Isaiah Coupet

Seattle has a metric in-house that they call something along the lines of the “shove” metric. I’ve been tinkering with my own version of this idea for a few years. From this class, Isaiah Coupet had one of the higher scores for a lefthander. If I was being stricter to the pure algorithm this pick would be Wake Forest LHP Sean Sullivan, but when I cross reference with the tape I just preferred Coup.

Coupet is a 6’1″/190lb southpaw that has similar size and shove score to recent 2nd-round lefties Andrew Abbott and Logan Allen. Abbott was drafted out of UVA in 2021 with the #53 overall pick for $1.3mill, and Allen was drafted #56 overall in 2020 for $1.125mill. Slot for #57 this year is $1.4mill, but I’m gonna try to get Coupet here, earlier than his 3rd-4th round projection, for $1.2mill.

3.92 – RHP, Charlotte, Wyatt Hudepohl

In his recent, pre-draft media huddle; Scott Hunter talked about the success Seattle has had drafting pitching from mid-major college programs like Elon (Kirby), Stetson (Gilbert), Cal Poly (Woo); and Hudepohl would be looking to continue that pattern.

The former Kentucky transfer; Wyatt has great size at 6’4″/220lbs, and though present fastball is mostly in the 93mph zone, his curveball is pretty special. He has eligibility remaining, so this won’t be an underslot guy. #92 is scheduled for a bonus of $736,400.

I’d also be pretty interested lefty-hitting Michigan State 1B Brock Vradenburg here.

4.124 – LHP, Dunedin HS, Trey Beard

Personally, I don’t trust Seattle to scout HS pitchers. I don’t know what they’re doing to pick the guys they do. I don’t know why it fails so often when the same scouting group evaluates college pitchers quite well. So I seriously doubt the M’s will come to the same conclusion on Trey Beard that I have. But this is a mock of what I would do, not what I think Seattle will do.

Trey Beard already has a great pitcher’s frame at 6’3″/190lbs, but some room to grow. His current repertoire isn’t that of a power pitcher, but he does show some promising scores on his pitch analytics. He’s a different TYPE of pitcher than Mariners’ 2022 fourth round pick Ashton Izzi, but the signing bonus negotiation could go similarly. Izzi was picked at #126 overall and signed for overslot at $1.1mill.

Slot for #124 is $531,300 and I’m trying to get Beard signed for $1mill even. His college commitment is to FAU.

5.160 – 2B/SS, North Kentucky, Noah Fisher

This will be the first true senior-signing of this mock. Noah Fisher is a 6’0″/195lb middle-infielder coming from Northern Kentucky who is already 23 years old. But he hit .343/.502/1.218 this spring with 19 homeruns and almost a 20% walk rate.

Seattle will oftentimes do senior-sign deals of, like, $20k in the 5th-10th rounds, but I’m not a huge fan of that. I’m budgeting to give Fisher $125k, which still saves you $249,400 towards other signings.

6.187 – RHP, Bryant, Coleman Picard

Coleman Picard is another mid-major RHP that fits recent Seattle profile. Listed at 6’2″/185lbs with a fastball currently reaching 95mph and a very good curve. The M’s pulled Bryan Woo out of the 6th round in 2021, so here’s to hoping they can do it again.

7.217 – OF, P27 Academy, Alfonsin Rosario

After a few picks going to the pitching side, I’m coming back to HS bats with Alfonsin Rosario. He’s listed at 6’2″/215lbs, and though he’s on the older side of high school players, that could probably also lower his signing price. His college commitment is only to a junior college, which may signal that he’s eager to sign now, or certainly to be eligible again immediately next year.

Alfonsin has a pretty traditional right field profile with one of the best OF arms in the class, and some high-end exit velocity scores.

8.247 – 1B, Morehead State, Jackson Feltner

Prior to the 2022 MLB Draft I started working on a hitting metric to help identify players I thought Seattle might be interested in. I ran the same study this year, but due to the theory that the M’s are gonna be focusing on high school hitters early; we missed out on most of the first tier of scorers in the ‘rake’ metric. I was able to fit in a few players that scored in the second tier across this mock, but they are basically all smaller school guys. But, technically, Tyler Locklear was a smaller school guy last year and they drafted him.

Jackson Feltner was one of these second tier guys. He’s 6’3″/220lbs and hit .348/.477/1.130 with 14 HR, and 32 XBH in 56 games this year. He was also a promising performer at the recent MLB Combine where he posted a max exit velocity of 110.6mph. And, though they weren’t published, I bet he would have scored high in bat-speed.

9.277 – RHP, Utah Valley, Casey Anderson

Casey Anderson is a 6’4″/180lb righthander that has bounced around the college game for a few years now. He will be 23 years old in August, so he could be another possibility for a senior sign, underslot pick, but with my personal philosophy; I would only save about $50k here.

Anderson split time pretty evenly between starting and relieving for Utah Valley last year across 15 appearances, 8 starts. In a summer-league game last week, his fastball was clocked up to 96.6mph, and he has a plus slider. This combo may make him a fast mover in the bullpen.

10.307 – 3B, Seminole State JC, Xavier Casserilla

There are so many ways to look for players in a baseball draft. This year, I happen to really like a lot of players that were at junior colleges this spring. Many of them have college commitments to D1 schools for 2024, which could be legit, but also could be posturing for draft leverage.

But here’s the thing…with the transfer portal in its current form, one could move from one school to another basically at any time. If a player is at a 4-year school; they can be drafted from that school after three years (less if they are over 21 years old). If you spend a year at a 4-year school, then transfer to JUCO; you can be drafted after your second overall year in college. That’s basically the only reason you transfer down to JUCO. If you’re okay waiting three years to be eligible; you can transfer from one 4-year to a different 4-year.

This is the situation Casserilla is in. He transferred from Wichita State down to JUCO between 2022 to 2023. So, although he is currently committed to power five school Oklahoma State for 2024, I deduce he will want to sign if drafted. This year he hit .378/.481/1.262 with 24 HR, 86 RBI in 64 games.

11.337 – 2B, Nesbit HS, Colton Coates

This is an interesting one. Colton Coates is a 6’1″/180lb high school switch-hitting utility infielder. But thanks to one of the newer developments in amateur baseball scouting…the MLB Draft League…Colton is currently playing against primarily college players in said league. And he’s kinda raking.

As an 18 year old in the MLBDL; Colton is hitting .338/.444/.823 with 3 doubles, 13 RBI, 4 SB, 15 BB, 12 SO in 20 games. He has a commitment to Louisiana Tech, but his placement in a thing called “Draft League” is giving me an intuition that he will sign.

12.367 – LHP, Southern Idaho, Josh Trentadue

Josh Trentadue is a 6’2″/185lb lefty that posted one of the, arguably, top 5 seasons of all JUCO pitchers in 2023. Across 66.1 IP, 12 starts he posted 2.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 16.01 SO/9, and 6.78 H/9. In a recent bullpen his fastball was up to 94mph.

13.397 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece

Unlike a number of Seattle-centric mock drafts I’ve seen recently; I don’t and won’t have Seattle drafting outfielders in the early rounds. In 2022 the earliest OF they drafted was Bill Knight in the 10th. In 2021 it was Colin Davis in the 7th. In the 2020 covid draft it was Zach Deloach in the 2nd. In 2019 it was a guy named Antoine Mistico in the 12th.

Because of some combination of the young talent they have in the OF on the major league club, the relative ease with which there is acquiring OF’er via trade, or the ability to build OF from converted IF; it’s historically not a huge urgency to draft them.

Ryley Preece is kind of a cool profile at 5’11″/170lbs, switch-hitter with exactly 21 HR and 21 SB this year in 56 games, plus a slash of .335/.454/1.192. Limited tape I could find also suggests a solid defender. It’d be an interesting target as developmental 4th-outfielder.

14.427 – 2B, UConn, David Smith

David Smith is a name I came across when I was pointedly trying to add some speed to my mock draft. He’s a 5’10″/190lb switch-hitter who primarily plays 2B, but can also play OF, and in 2023 he was a UConn team captain who stole 39 bases in 44 tries. Plus he hit .304/.429/.893 with 19 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homeruns.

There are a few guys in this mock that are included with thoughts on how they will contribute to the locker room, and Smith is one.

15.457 – RHP, Florida SW, Marty Gair

In 2021 Seattle drafted a RHP out of junior college in the 14th round named Andrew Moore who was 6’5″ and pulling some pretty serious heat. Marty Gair is a JUCO righty listed at 6’6″, only 20 years old, and rocking it up to 98mph this year.

He made 9 appearances this year…all as starter…and you could see his velo literally blossoming during the season: 94mph in January, 96mph in February, and 98 mph by March. With a move to the ‘pen, you have to wonder if those numbers might tick up a bit more, and hopefully his 5.50 BB/9 will tick down.

16.487 – C, Indiana State, Grant Magill

Every draft you probably want to come out of your 20 or so picks with a couple standard things: one would be a couple shortstops, one would be a couple catchers. Although they don’t really get credit for it…basically because the hit tool(s) often lag behind…the M’s have put together a nice collection of catchers in their farm system. Harry Ford is the only catcher on their top 30 prospects, but names like Jake Anchia (37% caught stealing), Matt Scheffler (31% CS), Tatem Levins (30% CS), German Guilarte (32% CS), Connor Charping (50% CS in small sample) are all quality receivers.

So that factors into my search for draft catchers. The Gold Glove awards gives out annual honors to one catcher at each level of college, and this year the D2 winner Tyler Boggs threw out 44% of attempted basestealers, and the D1 Gold Glove’r Grant Magill threw out 47%.

I’m drafting Magill for his glove, and for his leadership (this guy has future manager written all over him). Boggs might be the better pick for some upside in his bat (.347/.420/.849).

17.517 – RHP, Davidson, Bennett Flynn

Bennett Flynn is a 6’1″/175lb righthanded reliever that I’ve had my eye on for a couple years. He’s consistently posted strikeout numbers over 13.0 per nine. He was especially effective in 2022 when he finished the year with a 1.41 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, and a miniscule 4.7 H/9.

18.547 – SS, Indiana, Phillip Glasser

As I’ve talked about with a few of these later-round draftpicks; Phillip Glasser is someone that I’m putting higher value on for his leadership. I think it’s an important counterpoint to balance out the number of high school players we’re adding.

Glasser is a 6’0″/200lb lefty-hitting senior shortstop that hit .357/.444/.959 with 7 HR, 19 doubles, and 14 SB this year.

19.577 – LHP, UNLV, Jack Sellinger

Jack Sellinger is a 6’3″/210lb lefty reliever that struck out 14.8/nine across 39.0 innings this year. He’ll be 24 years old in November, but this is the kind of player you get in the 19th round.

20.607 – 3B, Delaware State, Trey Paige

Trey Paige is a 6’0″/215lb true utility type that hits lefthanded and can play almost every position on defense. Across his college career, Paige has played 3 games at 1B, 36 games at 2B, 51 games at 3B, 52 games at SS, 2 games in RF, 10 games in CF, and 28 games in LF. He hit .372/.468/1.159 this year with 15 doubles, 14 homeruns, 10 stolen base in 48 games.

In addition to the aforementioned, highly crafted draftees; I thought I would give some names that I’m also interested in, but that didn’t fit in the over-arching structure.

SS/CF Nazzan Zanetello – high school player with potential for 5 tools, that probably requires a top 30 pick for Seattle.

RHP Tanner Witt – Texas starter would have been VERY high on my list in 2022 before he needed Tommy John surgery. Tough to place his value now after a 10.97 ERA in his first 10 innings back from rehab.

SS Josh Rivera – After some fresh helium post- college world series; I found it tough to justify taking Rivera in the 2nd round, but I really like the player.

RHP Seth Keener – One of the higher scorers in my shove metric, I’d be fine if Seattle drafted Keener. His shove score was VERY similar to Coupet and I simply gave favoritism to the rarer lefty starter.

C Alberto Rios – Stanford moved him off of catcher which probably muddled his evaluation, but the bat was 2nd tier in my rake study.

1B Brock Vradenburg – An interesting name to track as he hit .400 in the regular season with quality plate discipline. He didn’t show a ton of power (13 HR in 55 games), but then at the MLB Combine he had top-end exit velocities and homer distance. The power might be coming and soon.

LHP Wil Libbert – There’s something to this HS lefty.

RHP Jackson Baumeister – At one point Baumeister was getting 2nd round projection, which was too expensive for his shove score compared to other pitchers. But in MLB’s most-recent rankings he was in the 5th round. I’d be psyched to get him even in the 4th.

RHP Cade Denton – probably the second-best reliever in this draft behind Andrew Walters; I just have moved away from drafting relievers in the top 10 rounds as a philosophy, and Denton might cost a 6th.

3B Daniel Cuvet – Huge HS power bat that was simply redundant after drafting Bitonti and Rosario. But call him first alternate.

RHP Gavin Adams – Interesting JUCO arm that probably ends up in the bullpen. Some control issues, but fastball touching 99mph. I’d be interested on day three.

3B Nick Lorusso – This is a deep crop of 3B, but Lorusso’s 26 HR, 105 RBI season has to keep him on the shortlist if the price is right.

2B Quinn McDaniel – Probably the most power amongst 2B players. Did very well on rake metric.