By Jared Stanger
We’re back with a slightly updated mock for this year’s Mariners’ draft. Got some new guys that I’ve had a chance to watch. Got some guys I’m valuing higher than I was in May. Got some strategic alterations with signing bonuses.
There generally isn’t a big “rumor mill” for MLB drafts, and what interviews that ARE given by Dipoto/Hollander/Hunter probably won’t come out until a week or two before the draft (July 9-11), so we’re still a bit early for anything like that. The little bit of intel I have found suggests Seattle going after high school bats. Now, is that ACTUAL intel or just recency bias because they’ve drafted a high school bat in the 1st round in the last two drafts?? Don’t know. But with, essentially, three first round picks; there will likely be a mix of bat/arm and HS/college.
The term “upside” will probably be bandied about too much. What I think might be more relevant is trying to find “fast-movers”…especially for bats. Truly elite college players will move extremely fast to the show. The Angels, for example, have been really aggressive with some of their 2022 college players, with 1st round shortstop Zach Neto and 3rd RHP Ben Joyce already debuting this year after less than a full year in the minors, respectively. Both were 22 years old at time of debut.
But some of those very special high school players will move almost as fast. Think of Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez, and more recently Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. Both of the latter two joined the organization as teenagers, and debuted in MLB at 21 years old.
This Mariner front office has seemed to have more success with two parts of amateur scouting: 1) College pitchers (Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Penn Murfee), and 2) prep bats (Julio, Jarred, Harry Ford, Cole Young, Noelvi Marte). I depicted in my previous mock the numerous failings of this regime in drafting HS pitching, but there have also been some unfortunate results in high-end college bats (Kyle Lewis, Evan White).
For what it’s worth, I don’t love this early round group of pitchers very much. There are quite a few college arms with injuries (either fresh or at the back end of recovery) that make me want to push them down the board. The prep pitchers also aren’t particularly strong this year, and they are notoriously the most bust-worthy group. I like some of the prep bats that seem to be projecting in the 20-45 range this year quite a lot. And there are some interesting college bats in there as well.
#1.22 – SS, Gulliver Prep, George Lombard Jr
There are MANY prep shortstops in this area of the draft. Lombard has emerged as my favorite. In some draft lists he’s projected a little lower…maybe closer to one of Seattle’s next two picks…but if he’s still available at #22 I’m just gonna take him with the earliest pick.
The other shortstop I’m keeping my eye on for this pick is Walker Martin. Martin is more often off the board in the #19-21 range in most mock drafts I look at, but occasionally I’ll see him randomly in the 40’s. If you can pull one of those guys, and maybe both if you’re really lucky, that’s how I’d try to start this draft.
Lombard has tremendous traits across the board plus MLB bloodlines. He’s committed to Vanderbilt, but slot bonus for #22 overall is just a hair under $3.5million. It is very rare that a player turns down that high of a bonus. It looks to me like he can stick at short, but I’m totally okay if he ends up at CF.
#1.29 – 3B, Aquinas HS, Eric Bitonti
In 2022, the M’s spent $3.3mill, $1.28mill, $1.25mill, $1.10mill on their first four picks, but due to the layout of that draft those four picks took them through the 4th round and the 3rd and 4th picks were overslot deals. The makeup of those four picks went: three high school, one college, two bats, two arms.
This year, the M’s could go $3.50mill, $2.80mill, $2.73mill, $1.44mill on their first four picks and they’d be right at slot value for all of them. Plus, they’d only be done with the 2nd round. So it’s gonna be pretty easy for them to sign high school players away from their college commitments with any/all of these four picks. Personally, I don’t think they really need to play a lot of bonus-pool gymnastics. Just play it straight up and draft best player available. I think you could start to massage signing bonuses in the 3rd round where an additional $269k saved in other rounds can get you a 5th player signed for over a $1mill bonus.
In 2022, the M’s second pick wasn’t until #58 overall when they drafted college hitter Tyler Locklear. This year their fourth pick is at #57 overall. So there is some potential we seem them go HS, HS, HS, COL if their idea of “upside” is synonymous with youth.
Eric Bitonti is one of the youngest players eligible for this draft. He is 17 years old and won’t be 18 until November. And he’s already 6’4″/218lbs. He has a college commitment to Oregon, but there’s about 2.8million reasons why you may be able to get him to come a little further north. This kid looks like he’s gonna be a monster.
#1.30 – RHP, Florida State, Jackson Baumeister
Jackson Baumeister is similar to Bitonti in that he’s extremely young for his classification. Two years ago Jackson was draft eligible as a high school senior and was old for his group, having turned 19 on July 10th, 2021. College players at four-year schools need to have played three years to be eligible, ORRRR they can be 21 years old within X number of days after that year’s draft. Jackson will turn 21 on day two of this year’s draft.
Now, the downside to this is that he still has two more years of eligibility remaining, and could decline to sign. I tend to think if picked in a quote-unquote first round slot, with the accompanying bonus, that he will sign.
Baumeister is listed 6’4″/226lbs and features an explosive 97mph fastball, and a swing-miss curve. As a former high school catcher; Jackson is still developing as a pitcher. I think he’s a unicorn as a college pitcher with true upside.
#2.57 – RHP, Wake Forest, Seth Keener
Seth Keener might be the player in this mock that least resembles what Seattle is currently looking for. This is more a pick I would make. He’s 6’2″/195lbs and doesn’t rock super high-end “stuff”. He’s more of a pitchability profile.
The fastball is mostly a straight 93mph offering, but the slider seems plus, and there’s a change-up in the toolbox as third offering. Personally, I just like this profile to develop. Guys add velo with relative ease more often now than ever. If a guy has a really good feel for an off-speed pitch; I like the chances.
#3.92 – SS, Florida, Josh Rivera
In a continuation of a hitting metric I started developing last year (that has shown good early results): I ran the same algorithm this year and it really liked Josh Rivera. He’s just a really well-balanced player. As a Senior there is some potential that you could sign him for somewhere underslot. This pick is slotted at $736,400 and I’d be happy to sign Josh for $500k and the $236k savings.
#4.124 – LHP, Virginia, Connelly Early
For all the pitching shortcomings this draft class has on day one, I kinda like the depth on day two. Especially the lefties. I think there are LHP you could pull from college, JUCO, high school between this pick and roughly the 12th round.
I was tempted to take HS lefty Wil Libbert here. 1) This is appropriate range to pick him. 2) He has college commitment to Mizzou and that school very recently fired the head coach that recruited Wil…which may increase odds/lower price to sign him away. 3) The guy has fascinating ability to miss bats without much that resembles any kind of plus pitch. I can only speculate there is a deception in his motion that makes him really hard to read.
I was tempted to take Stanford LHP Quinn Mathews and his 95mph fastball here, but I kinda wasn’t in love with his makeup. I was tempted to take a small-school LHP here like Mitch Farris or the JUCO kid Carson Dorsey as underslot targets, but this is historically earlier than Seattle will go underslot.
I finally decided to go with Connelly Early as a bit of antithesis to Mathews. Early’s stuff might be a notch less than Mathews today, but I just liked Connelly’s makeup better. I liked how Early seemed to rise to the occasion in UVA’s super regional. And as a former player for West Point; you can bet the guy has an impressive work ethic.
#5.160 – 2B, N Kentucky, Noah Fisher
After playing most of this mock straight up; the 5th round is where I’ll project Seattle really starts getting creative. In 2022 the M’s went $333k underslot to sign 5th rounder Reid VanScoter for $20k. In 2021 they went $354k underslot to sign 5th rounder Andy Thomas for $25k. In 2018 they went $50k underslot for 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman.
Noah Fisher is a 5th-year senior for Northern Kentucky already at 23 years old. So he fits the bill of a guy that is going to NEED to sign, and then his on-field performance where he hit .343/.502/1.218 with 19 HR in 54 games means there is still some potential for him to make it in the league.
Slot here is $374k…I’m not a fan of some of these really small bonuses…you should give every player a minimum of $125k, which I believe is the max (before penalties) for guys drafted rounds 11-20. So you could still bank $249k here to spend later.
#6.187 – RHP, Charlotte, Wyatt Hudepohl
Wyatt Hudepohl was a guy that was pitching in relief for an SEC school for a couple years 2020-2021, and then decided to transfer down a level to Charlotte for a chance to start. The results were a little bit mixed. He had a very respectable 1.149 WHIP with 11.0 SO/9, but he also allowed 15 HR in 17 starts which ballooned his ERA a bit to 4.27.
Like a couple of the previous arms in this mock; this pick is a bit of a hope that you can unlock a bit more in his stuff. The curveball is already a weapon, but the fastball running only about 93mph currently might be an issue.
As a true-Junior; you probably give him full-slot. Or really just round it up to an even $300k.
#7.217 – RF, P27 Academy, Alfonsin Rosario
Alfonsin Rosario is a 6’2″/215lb, 19 year old native to the Dominican Republic who is eligible for the Rule 4 Draft after living in the U.S. for some time now. He boasts top end exit velocity and outfield arm strength. His college commitment is to Chipola, a junior college in Florida, which suggests to me he may be more interested in signing with an MLB team than actually going to school. And knowing that…he may sign for straight slot value. I’ll round him up to $250k.
#8.247 – 3B, Maryland, Nick Lorusso
Nick Lorusso might be a personal favorite of mine. There were other 3B that scored higher in my study that Seattle might have a shot at. There were maybe a couple that played better defense at the hot corner. But I just kept coming back to Lorusso for his overall toolset and makeup. Look at him take top-10 overall pitcher Rhett Lowder yard…twice.
#9.277 – LHP, Dunedin HS, Trey Beard
In 2022 the M’s drafted a high school pitcher in the 9th round (Tyler Gough) and signed him for a little more than $100k overslot. As things stand in this mock; Seattle would have close to $450k of surplus available. I will try to point an additional $325k at Beard to bump him up to $500k and get him away from his commitment to Florida Atlantic University.
Beard has a great frame at 6’3″/180lbs. Present fastball is only 90mph, but there’s something about his repertoire tunneling that I really like.
#10.307 – C, South Dakota State, Ryan McDonald
The 10th round is another spot Seattle has historically looked to go underslot, senior-sign types. Ryan McDonald is a 5’11″/195lb backstop that just turned 23 last month that should be available for underslot as long as you get him before anyone else. In my analytic study of hitters; McDonald emerged as the #1 catcher (more on that later). I also like that he scored well on minimizing base-stealers.
#11.337 – C, Stanford, Alberto Rios
Starting in the 11th round, all picks have a max bonus of $125k or the overage counts towards the bonus pool from the top-10 rounds. Seattle has often gone over-slot in the 11th. This pick reminds me a bit of the 2019 draft when the M’s drafted Fresno State catcher Carter Bins in the 11th and signed him for $350k.
Alberto Rios is listed on Stanford’s website as a catcher, but I can’t find record of him playing there much this year. He’s been primarily in left field. I’m not sure why he hasn’t been catching, but he’d be more valuable to me if he can still catch. Either way, I’m drafting him for the bat.
#12.367 – RHP, Bryant, Coleman Picard
In 2017, Seattle drafted RHP Darren McCaughan out of Long Beach State in the 12th round. It wasn’t a high upside pick, but cut to 2021 and McCaughan earned his first promotion to the Majors. That’s a pretty successful use of a 12th round pick. Coleman Picard strikes me as a very similar profile with maybe a slightly higher upside.
Picard is 6’2″/185lbs and worked to a 2023 line of 1.167 WHIP, 12.6 SO/9, 4.92 SO/BB.
13.397 – 3B, Fairfield, Charlie Pagliarini
Charlie Pagliarini actually has one of the more impressive 2023 statlines of all players: 24 HR, 97 RBI, 14×15 in SB, .399/.528/1.379. But it’s a bit of a one-year wonder. In no other season he played for Fairfield or any of his Summer League appearances has he hit over .270. But a 13th round pick isn’t much of a risk for the upside of potential lefthanded power.
14.427 – OF, Morehead State, Ryley Preece
Ryley Preece is a switch-hitting outfielder that posted a 20-20 season this year in 56 games for Morehead. Exact marks: 21 HR, 21 SB, .335/.454/1.192.
15.457 – RHP, Oral Roberts, Cade Denton
Seattle has a pretty severe line drawn in their drafting history and it’s the 2020/Covid season. They had one draft philosophy pre-Covid, and they’ve made some changes post-Covid. One of the changes was pre-Covid they would frequently draft relief pitchers with top-10 round picks. But in the two most-recent drafts Seattle has drafted ZERO relievers top 10 rounds. Then, on day three of the draft, they will go pretty reliever-crazy rounds 11-20.
Cade Denton is a pretty high-profile reliever as he’s tied for the national D1 lead in saves with 15. He’s also a junior. So this pick at this range might be nonsense. I also really like Wake Forest setup-man Cole Roland. The media isn’t high on either of these guys, but I’m assuming the league is more aware. If both of those guys are off the board, or unsignable, I’d pivot to Jacksonville closer Chris Lotito.
16.487 – LHP, Clemson, Ryan Ammons
It is very tough to find lefty relievers without scouring hundreds of team rosters first for LHP, then for LHRP, then LHRP that are any good. I spotted Ryan Ammons sometime back and I’m kinda forcing him here even though he didn’t have the best season: 4.05 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 11.7 SO/9, 3.25 SO/BB, 5 saves. I mean, they’re not terrible numbers, but they seemed down from his 2022 performance.
17.517 – RHP, Milwaukee, Nate DeYoung
This pick is a bit of a shot in the dark as I wasn’t able to find any video of Nate DeYoung pitching. I found a bit of video of him hitting, as he’s been playing both ways. Further, it seems he might be new to pitching as he’s a fifth-year senior (all at Milwaukee), with five years of stats as a hitter but only pitching stats in the most recent three years. And in 2023 he made a huge step forward on the mound: 14 appearances, 15.1 IP, 9 saves, 0.913 WHIP, 16.4 SO/9, 4.00 SO/BB.
That’s a hell of a line. It reminds me a little, serendipitously, of Ty Adcock. As I’m writing this, we’re about an hour past the announcement of Adcock getting the big callup from AA. Adcock was drafted in the 8th round of the 2019 draft after playing two ways for Elon University (*George Kirby teammate) as a catcher and reliever. DeYoung has been playing both corner infield spots, and then some pitching.
This is where I’m going to cut the mock off for now. I will try to get another one up in the next three weeks before the draft that will go all 20 rounds. But there is one more thing I promised to address.
Last year I came up with this hitting metric that felt like an interesting way to profile batters in the modern game. One of the biggest hits from that study (if not THEE biggest scorer…I don’t remember exactly) was Tyler Locklear. Then Seattle drafted him in the 2nd round. Then Tyler started 2023 hitting .311/.419/.992 with 11 HR in 48 games in Everett before a HBP broke his hand and put him on the IL. These were top 5 marks of all hitters from the 2022 draft. That’s pretty intriguing. So I ran the college players from the 2023 class through the same algorithm.
So I have a master list of all these hitters ranked, but I also have sub-lists filtered by defensive position. I wanted to highlight some of the top “testers” at each position because, though I may have gone high school player or pitcher at ranges these guys are projected, if Seattle drafts any of them…pin it, cause I will still like the pick. I’m not going to focus on high-scorers that have, like, top-15 overall projection.
The #1 overall player in this study was 1B Nolan Schanuel. He scored higher than consensus top 2 pick Dylan Crews. And Schanuel gets frequent projection between #22-#30 where Seattle will have three shots at him.
Wake Forest slugger Brock Wilken was top 3 overall, and obviously the top scorer at 3B. He may be available at #30.
Maine RHB Quinn McDaniel took top mark for 2B. He gets roughly 6th round projection.
Davidson catcher Michael Carico had one of the best offensive statlines in the country last year, and though he was hurt for part(s) of 2023; he was still top 10 overall in my study for 2023. He’s probably not getting out of the 3rd round.
With three OF spots on defense; I get to highlight three OF hitters. In order: Cam Fisher, Chase Davis, Colton Ledbetter. Coincidentally, they all hit lefty. The latter two probably don’t get out of the 2nd round. Fisher is currently more like 5th round.
Lastly, I didn’t love Maryland SS Matt Shaw on tape, but this study felt he would easily be worth a top-20 pick. And TCU 3B Brayden Taylor is projected almost perfectly at #22 overall. If Seattle drafts either at #22…probably a good pick.
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